I just realized with gov't shutdown, the fare total might not be available until that's over. bummer.
SJU - Trim capacity to JFK/FLL/MCO/BOS further, given continued weakness in the PR market.
While i completely understand why you would say that and it has complete logic, i hope to goodness they don't cut back SJU-BOS further, as my company has an office there and it's already pretty rough to get out and back, would I be surprised if they did? nope... i just hope they don't.
JFK and MCO are not doing great due to the PR weakness. BOS-SJU is quite profitable as a monopoly. I think they are trying to run DL off JFK-SJU/STI/SDQ. A lot of capacity next summer out of JFK. We will see. DL seems to be committed to battling B6 on certain routes even when they are bleeding money.
Mint is a good product but B6 will need to launch with decent frequency to get business travelers. AA/BA shows 12x JFK-LHR tomorrow; DL/VS is 8x. UA is 5x EWR-LHR. At BOS, AA/BA is 3x; DL/VS is 2x.
I don't know if B6 has the balls or free cash flow to start JFK-LHR at 4x daily.
4x on JFK-LHR seems to be what they requested for based on one of the links i saw on BOS threads. But I don't see them getting the 7 slots they are asking for. Realistically, they will probably start off at twice a day on both routes imo. Which given B6's leisure profile in NYC, they should do okay in. There are always people willing to pay more to fly B6 out of NYC. They do really well to CLT/ATL/DEN with just 2 flights a day.
That is certainly an issue for them.
But the real problem is this. JetBlue is an LCC that has stimulated markets with low fares. United can’t make money at B6 fares and when they try to raise fares, traffic would shrink. Possibly dramatically. Yes NYC could be a regulatory problem, UA would lose badly to DL in BOS and NK plus WN would slaughter UA in price sensitive FLL. But the problem is B6 network isn’t profitable at legacy costs. Period. There is no revenue premium United could drive in most ofB6’s network by being a global carrier. The revenue synergy doesn’t exist to make up for the higher costs.
yep, agreed 100% here. I can see how UA could make B6 network out of JFK work. Why I always said WN made the most sense.
But Jetblue is also not stupid and flights like pit-bos are in the top grossing flights
So “top grossing” equates to $58-59 fares being offered by DL and B6 on a route that is going to be 10x daily on CRJ9s and E190s in the Spring and averaged loads in the 70s this past summer?
Sorry, but BOS-PIT is no longer a high-yielding route for JetBlue like it was in 2016.
Yeah B6 triumphantly announced how they were printing money on that route....and DL said "Oh really?? you don't say??". Now its full on price war with both dumping more capacity at it.
What DL is doing on BOS-PIT is unsustainable. They are getting less than half of the yield that they get on LGA-PIT. The fares are already rock bottom and now they are planning to increase capacity by 150% next summer! I can't see how that works out.
Outside of taking revenge on B6 for tanking BOS-LGA/ATL/MSP fares, I can't see any other reason for DL to stick around on this route.
FLL Might be ripe for a Legacy/Network carrier in the event of a UA Merger. Take out places like SWF, SYR, ALB, SLC, PHX and replace it with regional flying to SE markets that have minimal So Fla service like SAV, TLH, GSP, AVL, CHS, ECP, BHM while keeping it as a Caribbean and Central America gateway. AA and DL have a solid presence at FLL in spite f of the LCC's because the demand is there. B6 + UA could have a serious play for the business market there which is likely much larger than people give it credit for.
There is definitely business traffic there. The issue is that much of the business traffic across So. Fla is international and it’s hard to match the frequency/scope of what AA offers both internationally and domestically. This is exacerbated by the fact that the international business traffic generally prefers MIA to FLL. An FLL based carrier would primarily be competing with AA for domestic business traffic while ceding the lion’s share of the international business traffic to AA. Very difficult to do well in that type of market if you’re a legacy.
That maybe the case, but B6 been poaching premium passengers from AA due to mint. And flights to places like GRU/GIG/EZE will be possible once they have a321LR (or XLR).
AA has publicly said MIA is underperforming. And we know FLL is now B6's most profitable station (at least in winter time). That would indicate they are gaining on AA in yield at So. Fla.
Perhaps some new Mint transcons adds? JetBlue’s Facebook post a few days ago for destination Burbank had an interesting comment in which someone asked if Mint is available at BUR in which jetBlue replied “Not at the moment, Michelle. But stay tuned! It can happen.
Maybe mini-mint with A220? I think that's more likely.