Delta is in the easy markets. Delta is starting the harder markets. Delta is in or creates (to hubs) the hardest markets.
Anything B6 adds from here on out is going to be a money losing slug fest in which B6 tries to defend itself and gain an offense against a bigger rival
Let’s hope for a detente. For the future of B6, let’s hope for a detente
Sorry I have to disagree with you on this, even though I do respect your views a lot.
There have been very few easy market for Delta in Boston. The only domestic routes they make money on from what I can see are SLC, IND, CMH, CVG, DTW and LGA. Everything else ranges from around breaking even like RDU, MCO and LAS to outright disasters like SFO, PIT, BUF, RIC. They even lose money to ATL and MSP! And everything it adds from now will look like PIT basically. And it's basically getting close to being gate constrained. There is no relief in sight and they are unlikely to win too many *A or OW ff given their weakness in the major business market to them.
What their buildup has done is forced B6 to raise its game in Boston earlier than it was hoping to. Without DL buildup, we might still be seeing 3x daily to ORD or 6x daily to PHL for example. As a whole, Boston is probably right around average in the systems in margins and unlikely to get any worse than that given that DL is getting gate constrained and other carriers are reducing capacity at BOS.
They've already added the most painful routes. From now on, they just need to stop adding flights to places with no demand like PSP, HAV and secondary LA airport and starting to serve underserved cities like MEM, SDF. Note to JetBlue, just because flights have demands out of JFK, doesn't mean they will have demand out of BOS.
We want them to grow at JFK, but there is no slot relief unless they persuade AA to sell some of theirs. So JFK better keep making money with the slots they have.
Ok, well, the bottom line is you infer that B6 is bleeding money as a whole in BOS, then you narrow it down to 4 routes. Which is it?
I think BOS as a whole is profitable for B6, but margins are certainly feeling pressure. Some of B6's largest losers are BOS-ATL/MSP/HOU, but they're making good money in the Mint markets, down to Florida and I presume the Islands, and some of the business and leisure markets (I presume DCA, RDU, MSY, AUS etc are quite profitable).
I think the last couple of years have been a blip on the radar. BOS is unlikely to see such a jump in capacity after the end of this year. And honestly, the biggest reasons for BOS becoming less profitable is not DL's adds, but rather B6 jumping into LGA, ATL and MSP. All 3 routes are huge red ink. And those are going to take time to resolve from either more connectivity, more LGA slots and A220 joining service. Those really profitable leisure markets out of BOS haven't really gotten less profitable.
And going forward, DL is unlikely to add too many more flights given the gate constrained and other airlines are cutting back due to the competition. And there is no threat of NK or any other ULCC buildup at BOS. So if BOS keeps adding 10 flights a year with some upgauging (let's say 10 to 15% boost in ASM), Boston is still only going to probably grow 5% in ASM domestically and that's sustainable growth for an airport like Boston as long as B6 keeps adding connectivity there.
And also, one other thing to consider is credit card sign ups and mosaic members. The area including/between Boston and New York probably has the largest concentration of JetBlue credit card members and mosaic members. That kind of stuff isn't really evident in these members but really contribute to the bottom line.
And I think it's obvious that TATL flights are going to be a major boon to them in both categories for both Boston and New York. Once they start flying to Europe, what is DL's advantage over them in Boston? That they have better schedule to ATL and MSP? They just need to keep holding on once they get to that point. DL's current yields are not sustainable.