B752OS
Posts: 1140
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 4:05 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:51 am

tphuang wrote:
VS4ever wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Thanks for the update. Looks like they are adding something that can be used when things get tight with the normal jetbridge gates. Probably good for less important E90 markets.



Any EI or TP move would be along the 2021 time line right? They will also need to make sure terminal E can handle their incoming aircraft from Europe once that happens. How many new gates is coming through with the terminal E expansion? Seems like BOS is going to be at capacity again soon with international stuff. If they can get C40-42 by later this year, then they do still have some room for adds next year. And it would be right in time for all the A321NEO deliveries that got delayed from this year.


The terminal E expansion is being done in two phases. The first phase will add 4 new wide-body gates with dual jet bridges. This phase will encompass the bulk of the expansion. It will coming online in Q1 2022. Phase 2 will add another 3 new wide-body gates, one with a dual jet bridge and 2 with a single jet bridge.. Phase 2 won't be complete until late 2024. Massport has been adjusting the timing on the project over the last several months, so it seems as if Q1 2022 is a solid estimate for the first phase coming online.

Start at page 97. Lots of plans and renders.

http://www.massport.com/media/3106/nove ... ermark.pdf
Last edited by B752OS on Tue Jul 02, 2019 12:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
N757ST
Posts: 689
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2002 6:00 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:59 am

B752OS wrote:
tphuang wrote:
VS4ever wrote:


The terminal E expansion is being done in two phases. The first phase will add 4 new wide-body gates with dual jet bridges. This phase will encompass 70% of the total project. It will coming online in Q1 2022. Phase 2 will add another 3 new wide-body gates with dual jet bridges. Phase 2 won't be complete until 2024.


Will these dual jetbridge gates have a swing ability to accommodate 8 narrow bodies or 4 wide bodies?
 
B752OS
Posts: 1140
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 4:05 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 02, 2019 12:04 pm

N757ST wrote:
B752OS wrote:
tphuang wrote:


The terminal E expansion is being done in two phases. The first phase will add 4 new wide-body gates with dual jet bridges. This phase will encompass 70% of the total project. It will coming online in Q1 2022. Phase 2 will add another 3 new wide-body gates with dual jet bridges. Phase 2 won't be complete until 2024.


Will these dual jetbridge gates have a swing ability to accommodate 8 narrow bodies or 4 wide bodies?


Yes. Check out the PDF I just added to my original post. Massport notes that you can fit 8 narrow bodies at 5 of the 7 new gates and still fit wide bodies at the other two. Page 101 of the PDF.
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1387
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 02, 2019 12:33 pm

tphuang wrote:
\
New Markets they should add:
IND - 2x daily with E90s/A220
CMH - 2x daily with E90s/A220
MEM - 1x daily with E90/A220
SDF - 1x daily with E90/A220
MKE - 1x daily with A220

So I think there is quite a lot flights they can still add domestically in addition to the international markets.

CVG seems like an obvious add with only DL on the route and high fares to boot (go take a look at what DL wants for CVG-BOS vs. CMH-BOS).
 
tphuang
Posts: 2892
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 02, 2019 1:15 pm

N757ST wrote:
FARmd90 wrote:
UkiAir wrote:

I've been thinking about this too. Plus the new gate C43.
So 4 gates connected passed security with both Terminal B and C AND the CBP facilities. Even if another floor on top of it is needed, it would make such a big difference. Like lots and lots of other airports in the world have.


There’s also that baggage claim area below those gates that cape air and Alaska use they could turn into Customs or even take away from the food court a little bit if needed. Seems like that would be easy way to add another inspection area for international flights where B6, Porter, Azores and some of the smaller international flights could park.


3 small and separated gates to be used as customs wouldn’t be enough long term. Those gates are going to be connected inside security in the next year or 2. With 26 international jets arriving in the next 4-5 years I think you will see jetblue move more and more into the E gates as the E terminal expands. “BOS 200” is today’s goal, it wouldn’t shock me if the end goal is 250+ flights a day at the airport.


exactly, they need those gates far more than they will need customs in terminal C, especially with their expansion into Terminal E. A lot of their premium passengers will be using priority pass lounges in Terminal E, so don't think it's a problem not having their own CBP facility.

Although they haven't announced it yet, I think we are well past the point where 200 is their goal. Their calculation has changed. It's no longer just offering good schedule on the top business routes + token presence to opposing fortress hubs. Now they need to offer comparable schedules on the top business routes + reasonable schedule to all opposing fortress hubs. That's how they can differentiate themselves from legacie. Just based on the domestic routes I posted above where they should add flights + the 15 TATL flights I think they will add just with the 26 A321XLR/LR on order, I already have them at 220 flights during peak days. After that, the increased connectivity from TATL flights will allow for more flights added.

They will probably be at 200 peak day flights in Mar/April and 185 to 190 in fall month by second half of 2020. If they continue to add 10 to 15 flights a year, they will be at around 230 to 240 flights by end of 2023 and need more gate space again. And that's assuming EI/TP can move to Terminal E or they get more terminal E access.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2892
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 03, 2019 5:54 pm

So Q1 results are out and I'm going to try to do some usual yield analysis here. Here are some quick summaries from glancing around some of the markets I track.
- DL is really eating AA's lunch at JFK. I know this is B6 thread, but it's pretty interesting to see how much DL is improving in performance at JFK vs B6 on some key markets while AA is declining in those markets (even vs 2 years ago). Seems like a lot of AA ff have jumped ship to DL and not many have joined B6.
- As B6 commented on in their own call, those JFK/BOS non-premium transcon markets were bloody. Even the usually reliable JFK-LGB/BUR were big losers in Q1.
- For this Q1, the weaker players in major BOS markets really show up. Unlike other quarters, you see a big gap between the yield of the dominant and secondary player. That bodes well for B6 in markets where they dominate like BUF/PIT/RIC/FLL/MCO, but not so great in markets like ATL/MSP/CLT/ORD
- As a whole, I would say they are maintaining their pricing power in BOS, but the overcapacity is crashing yields in many markets.

Anyways, here are the mint market numbers
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight Departures LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
JFKLAX 2475 AA 187013 533.34 538.93 381.29 96.45% 102.2 2089 87.58% 471.99 0.1907 181.70%
JFKLAX 2475 AS 106605 212.64 212.12 275.28 99.18% 167.7 860 73.90% 156.76 0.0633 60.35%
JFKLAX 2475 B6 241171 301.13 301.23 269.87 99.69% 159.0 1759 86.23% 259.76 0.1050 100.00%
JFKLAX 2475 DL 295893 369.79 366.83 513.40 97.98% 221.8 1603 83.23% 305.31 0.1234 117.53%
EWRLAX 2454 AS 62006 214.43 214.00 262.91 99.13% 167.1 448 82.84% 177.27 0.0722
EWRLAX 2454 UA 314290 318.45 314.97 522.67 98.32% 208.0 1665 90.76% 285.86 0.1165
This is pretty typical. AS is getting wiped out in these markets. Its yield is looking worse and worse. Hard to imagine you can do that terribly on a market with as much premium demand as JFK-LAX

JFKSFO 2586 AA 70138 538.28 538.51 533.11 95.74% 102.0 818 84.06% 452.68 0.1751 185.45%
JFKSFO 2586 AS 81245 223.65 222.93 268.39 98.41% 161.2 686 73.48% 163.80 0.0633 67.11%
JFKSFO 2586 B6 133471 294.90 294.86 310.10 99.70% 159.0 1014 82.79% 244.10 0.0944 100.00%
JFKSFO 2586 DL 167245 375.19 370.91 568.98 97.84% 179.7 1186 78.49% 291.14 0.1126 119.27%
EWRSFO 2565 AS 58656 208.46 207.23 268.93 98.01% 166.9 452 77.76% 161.13 0.0628 N/A
EWRSFO 2565 UA 331439 436.60 426.69 666.95 95.87% 194.9 1969 86.38% 368.59 0.1437 N/A
Not a great quarter for B6 here. They are normally a lot closer to DL yields than this. Again, you can see AS with just some horrendous numbers on a very premium route.

BOSSFO 2704 AS 35143 228.48 226.75 295.70 97.49% 161.3 313 69.61% 157.84 0.0584 64.16%
BOSSFO 2704 B6 110664 296.26 296.19 312.64 99.55% 159.0 838 83.05% 246.00 0.0910 100.00%
BOSSFO 2704 DL 22992 268.33 256.81 385.42 91.04% 199.0 180 64.19% 164.85 0.0610 67.01%
BOSSFO 2704 UA 119437 378.03 373.52 485.50 95.97% 156.2 904 84.56% 315.86 0.1168 128.40%
BOSLAX 2611 AA 107989 235.52 232.72 289.75 95.10% 171.9 740 84.88% 197.54 0.0757 86.48%
BOSLAX 2611 AS 19972 197.73 195.83 278.10 97.70% 169.4 174 67.77% 132.71 0.0508 58.10%
BOSLAX 2611 B6 92877 266.61 266.30 331.79 99.53% 159.0 681 85.78% 228.42 0.0875 100.00%
BOSLAX 2611 DL 43748 258.90 252.37 328.96 91.48% 164.8 319 83.22% 210.03 0.0804 91.95%
BOSLAX 2611 UA 50521 247.12 242.32 332.40 94.67% 169.3 379 78.75% 190.83 0.0731 83.54%
okay number for B6 on BOS-SFO given its a Q1. Absolutely horrible numbers for DL on that route. If they weren't trying to build a hub at BOS, this would've been gone a year ago. And pretty good numbers on BOS-LAX for B6. Even with DL and UA both using lie flat, they managed to have a pretty healthy premim. Again, AS is getting wiped out here.

FLLLAX 2343 AS 51520 247.69 247.54 301.47 99.71% 171.0 364 82.78% 204.90 0.0875 64.25%
FLLLAX 2343 B6 72399 355.54 355.06 494.70 99.66% 159.0 507 89.82% 318.90 0.1361 100.00%
MIALAX 2342 AA 241508 355.27 354.63 366.42 94.60% 189.3 1360 93.83% 332.76 0.1421 N/A
FLLSFO 2584 B6 52153 331.58 332.25 267.61 98.96% 159.0 360 91.12% 302.75 0.1172 100.00%
FLLSFO 2584 UA 28554 323.90 318.09 373.71 89.56% 171.5 192 86.71% 275.80 0.1067 91.10%
MIASFO 2585 AA 111462 304.45 300.28 386.41 95.16% 182.2 658 92.99% 279.23 0.1080 N/A
MIASFO 2585 UA 26064 347.55 339.97 439.48 92.38% 165.8 178 88.33% 300.31 0.1162 N/A
They added a 3rd flight for FLL-LAX which is doing reasonably well. Seems like AA did better at MIA in Q1. Over at, FLL-SFO, also very good numbers. They really should be permanently up the frequencies on both of these routes.

JFKSAN 2446 AA 19868 270.38 265.67 296.46 84.70% 160.7 163 75.83% 201.46 0.0824 79.29%
JFKSAN 2446 B6 46904 287.53 287.68 243.57 99.67% 159.0 334 88.32% 254.08 0.1039 100.00%
JFKSAN 2446 DL 64907 298.78 293.94 409.49 95.81% 163.0 469 84.90% 249.54 0.1020 98.21%
EWRSAN 2425 AS 21349 201.65 201.10 235.44 98.39% 175.9 162 74.92% 150.67 0.0621
EWRSAN 2425 UA 74405 334.41 330.85 403.42 95.09% 168.8 521 84.58% 279.83 0.1154
EWRSAN 2425 WN 15603 187.21 184.55 240.44 95.24% 170.3 137 66.87% 123.40 0.0509
BOSSAN 2588 AS 22039 257.68 255.33 343.14 97.32% 172.0 171 74.93% 191.32 0.0739 68.22%
BOSSAN 2588 B6 46086 314.98 315.44 273.40 98.89% 159.0 326 88.91% 280.46 0.1084 100.00%
Still good numbers for them on JFK-SAN in a weak yielding quarter. AA struggles. Terrible numbers for AS/WN over at EWR. And out of BOS, another strong quarter for mint. Makes sense for them to add that 3rd flight.

JFKSEA 2422 AA 15912 207.04 193.73 297.77 87.21% 160.3 153 64.87% 125.68 0.0519 70.73%
JFKSEA 2422 AS 72764 199.43 198.52 302.92 99.13% 175.8 518 79.89% 158.60 0.0655 89.26%
JFKSEA 2422 B6 43282 215.46 215.41 239.69 99.80% 159.0 330 82.49% 177.69 0.0734 100.00%
JFKSEA 2422 DL 85358 268.23 264.20 399.32 97.01% 173.9 573 85.65% 226.29 0.0934 127.35%
EWRSEA 2402 AS 54237 237.88 236.94 312.17 98.74% 174.5 387 80.31% 190.28 0.0792 N/A
EWRSEA 2402 UA 45095 301.71 289.00 415.48 89.95% 161.1 370 75.68% 218.70 0.0910 N/A
BOSSEA 2496 AS 48505 233.44 230.95 362.99 98.12% 173.2 330 84.87% 196.02 0.0785 109.84%
BOSSEA 2496 B6 41033 225.86 225.43 272.33 99.08% 159.0 326 79.16% 178.46 0.0715 100.00%
BOSSEA 2496 DL 26046 248.80 236.83 302.05 81.64% 160.0 208 78.27% 185.38 0.0743 103.88%
So if you need to know why AA will cut JFK-SEA permanently, this Q1 numbers should tell you why. I have never seen any legacy with that kind of yield or close to it on a transcon flight. B6's numbers were pretty poor, but seems like this is just a really low yielding quarter. And over at BOS, they still struggle here to get premium pricing for mint.

JFKLAS 2248 AA 43133 263.75 253.22 333.98 86.96% 161.2 326 82.09% 207.87 0.0925 91.24%
JFKLAS 2248 B6 79914 263.22 263.04 296.04 99.46% 172.5 535 86.62% 227.83 0.1013 100.00%
JFKLAS 2248 DL 134003 314.71 311.96 416.96 97.39% 179.6 881 84.67% 264.14 0.1175 115.93%
BOSLAS 2381 B6 72488 275.64 275.51 293.15 99.26% 156.8 563 82.14% 226.30 0.0950 100.00%
BOSLAS 2381 DL 20620 297.45 294.50 313.86 84.77% 160.1 149 86.43% 254.53 0.1069 112.48%
Again, LAS doesn't seem to be a market where mint is doing too great. This was probably their best quarter at JFK, but still trailing DL in yield. Over at BOS, not great numbers for B6.

and just a look at the secondary LA basin markets.
JFKBUR 2465 B6 39901 187.41 187.32 267.36 99.89% 151.2 316 83.49% 156.39 0.0634
JFKLGB 2465 B6 40908 190.60 188.55 269.67 97.48% 151.4 326 82.90% 156.31 0.0634
JFKONT 2429 B6 21685 170.70 170.70 000.00 100.00% 151.6 177 80.81% 137.94 0.0568
BOSBUR 2601 B6 13842 177.63 177.54 205.65 99.67% 152.9 161 56.23% 99.82 0.0384
BOSLGB 2602 B6 31232 192.88 191.32 284.79 98.33% 151.6 261 78.96% 151.06 0.0581
These are pretty low numbers around. Maybe it was just this past year, but seems like they tried to add too much transcon capacity.
 
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Dieuwer
Posts: 1251
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:03 pm

Couple of interesting observations IMHO:

1) DL doing better on BOS-LAX than AA. Very impressive by DL, considering their limited schedule. AA needs to step up.
2) BOS-SEA seems to have rationalized with B6 closer to AS and DL (It used to be a disaster). Consistency and winning over SEA pax seems to pay off.
3) AS is terrible almost everywhere. How much longer can they run the legacy VX routes?

tphuang wrote:
Seems like a lot of AA ff have jumped ship to DL and not many have joined B6.


No choice, really. If AA FF need a strong international route network, e.g. to attend meetings in London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, etc., they will pick Delta as B6 offers none.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 25654
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:30 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Couple of interesting observations IMHO:

1) DL doing better on BOS-LAX than AA. Very impressive by DL, considering their limited schedule. AA needs to step up.


That’s a really broad statement and you can’t reach that conclusion from this one chart. AA has literally 2.5x the capacity. DL is going to have the higher fare.
a.
 
User avatar
Dieuwer
Posts: 1251
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 03, 2019 6:34 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Couple of interesting observations IMHO:

1) DL doing better on BOS-LAX than AA. Very impressive by DL, considering their limited schedule. AA needs to step up.


That’s a really broad statement and you can’t reach that conclusion from this one chart. AA has literally 2.5x the capacity. DL is going to have the higher fare.


If that were true than AS would have the highest fare.
Fare ≠ 1/Capacity.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 25654
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 03, 2019 7:02 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Couple of interesting observations IMHO:

1) DL doing better on BOS-LAX than AA. Very impressive by DL, considering their limited schedule. AA needs to step up.


That’s a really broad statement and you can’t reach that conclusion from this one chart. AA has literally 2.5x the capacity. DL is going to have the higher fare.


If that were true than AS would have the highest fare.
Fare ≠ 1/Capacity.


Again, only looking at part of the equation. AA has massive capacity in LAXBOS compared to others. AS is a token player that takes bottom feeder traffic and a few loyal travelers. Don’t use these charts to draw conclusions. You can’t.
a.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2892
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 03, 2019 9:04 pm

One thing to note on BOS-LAX. B6/DL/UA were all running lie flat aircraft during Q1 and AA was not, so it wasn't terrible number, but still not good. Would be interesting to see how the incorporation of A321T did in Q2.

I'm struggling to figure out what AS can do to turn around transcon performance. Looks like they are not going to quit on those precious JFK slots, but it's certainly some painful performances.

But to me, the big story is how much AA is hurting in JFK. I don't see how that can be turned around.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3265
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 03, 2019 9:39 pm

tphuang wrote:
So Q1 results are out and I'm going to try to do some usual yield analysis here. Here are some quick summaries from glancing around some of the markets I track.
- DL is really eating AA's lunch at JFK. I know this is B6 thread, but it's pretty interesting to see how much DL is improving in performance at JFK vs B6 on some key markets while AA is declining in those markets (even vs 2 years ago). Seems like a lot of AA ff have jumped ship to DL and not many have joined B6.
- As B6 commented on in their own call, those JFK/BOS non-premium transcon markets were bloody. Even the usually reliable JFK-LGB/BUR were big losers in Q1.
- For this Q1, the weaker players in major BOS markets really show up. Unlike other quarters, you see a big gap between the yield of the dominant and secondary player. That bodes well for B6 in markets where they dominate like BUF/PIT/RIC/FLL/MCO, but not so great in markets like ATL/MSP/CLT/ORD
- As a whole, I would say they are maintaining their pricing power in BOS, but the overcapacity is crashing yields in many markets.

Anyways, here are the mint market numbers
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight Departures LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
JFKLAX 2475 AA 187013 533.34 538.93 381.29 96.45% 102.2 2089 87.58% 471.99 0.1907 181.70%
JFKLAX 2475 AS 106605 212.64 212.12 275.28 99.18% 167.7 860 73.90% 156.76 0.0633 60.35%
JFKLAX 2475 B6 241171 301.13 301.23 269.87 99.69% 159.0 1759 86.23% 259.76 0.1050 100.00%
JFKLAX 2475 DL 295893 369.79 366.83 513.40 97.98% 221.8 1603 83.23% 305.31 0.1234 117.53%
EWRLAX 2454 AS 62006 214.43 214.00 262.91 99.13% 167.1 448 82.84% 177.27 0.0722
EWRLAX 2454 UA 314290 318.45 314.97 522.67 98.32% 208.0 1665 90.76% 285.86 0.1165
This is pretty typical. AS is getting wiped out in these markets. Its yield is looking worse and worse. Hard to imagine you can do that terribly on a market with as much premium demand as JFK-LAX

JFKSFO 2586 AA 70138 538.28 538.51 533.11 95.74% 102.0 818 84.06% 452.68 0.1751 185.45%
JFKSFO 2586 AS 81245 223.65 222.93 268.39 98.41% 161.2 686 73.48% 163.80 0.0633 67.11%
JFKSFO 2586 B6 133471 294.90 294.86 310.10 99.70% 159.0 1014 82.79% 244.10 0.0944 100.00%
JFKSFO 2586 DL 167245 375.19 370.91 568.98 97.84% 179.7 1186 78.49% 291.14 0.1126 119.27%
EWRSFO 2565 AS 58656 208.46 207.23 268.93 98.01% 166.9 452 77.76% 161.13 0.0628 N/A
EWRSFO 2565 UA 331439 436.60 426.69 666.95 95.87% 194.9 1969 86.38% 368.59 0.1437 N/A
Not a great quarter for B6 here. They are normally a lot closer to DL yields than this. Again, you can see AS with just some horrendous numbers on a very premium route.

BOSSFO 2704 AS 35143 228.48 226.75 295.70 97.49% 161.3 313 69.61% 157.84 0.0584 64.16%
BOSSFO 2704 B6 110664 296.26 296.19 312.64 99.55% 159.0 838 83.05% 246.00 0.0910 100.00%
BOSSFO 2704 DL 22992 268.33 256.81 385.42 91.04% 199.0 180 64.19% 164.85 0.0610 67.01%
BOSSFO 2704 UA 119437 378.03 373.52 485.50 95.97% 156.2 904 84.56% 315.86 0.1168 128.40%
BOSLAX 2611 AA 107989 235.52 232.72 289.75 95.10% 171.9 740 84.88% 197.54 0.0757 86.48%
BOSLAX 2611 AS 19972 197.73 195.83 278.10 97.70% 169.4 174 67.77% 132.71 0.0508 58.10%
BOSLAX 2611 B6 92877 266.61 266.30 331.79 99.53% 159.0 681 85.78% 228.42 0.0875 100.00%
BOSLAX 2611 DL 43748 258.90 252.37 328.96 91.48% 164.8 319 83.22% 210.03 0.0804 91.95%
BOSLAX 2611 UA 50521 247.12 242.32 332.40 94.67% 169.3 379 78.75% 190.83 0.0731 83.54%
okay number for B6 on BOS-SFO given its a Q1. Absolutely horrible numbers for DL on that route. If they weren't trying to build a hub at BOS, this would've been gone a year ago. And pretty good numbers on BOS-LAX for B6. Even with DL and UA both using lie flat, they managed to have a pretty healthy premim. Again, AS is getting wiped out here.

FLLLAX 2343 AS 51520 247.69 247.54 301.47 99.71% 171.0 364 82.78% 204.90 0.0875 64.25%
FLLLAX 2343 B6 72399 355.54 355.06 494.70 99.66% 159.0 507 89.82% 318.90 0.1361 100.00%
MIALAX 2342 AA 241508 355.27 354.63 366.42 94.60% 189.3 1360 93.83% 332.76 0.1421 N/A
FLLSFO 2584 B6 52153 331.58 332.25 267.61 98.96% 159.0 360 91.12% 302.75 0.1172 100.00%
FLLSFO 2584 UA 28554 323.90 318.09 373.71 89.56% 171.5 192 86.71% 275.80 0.1067 91.10%
MIASFO 2585 AA 111462 304.45 300.28 386.41 95.16% 182.2 658 92.99% 279.23 0.1080 N/A
MIASFO 2585 UA 26064 347.55 339.97 439.48 92.38% 165.8 178 88.33% 300.31 0.1162 N/A
They added a 3rd flight for FLL-LAX which is doing reasonably well. Seems like AA did better at MIA in Q1. Over at, FLL-SFO, also very good numbers. They really should be permanently up the frequencies on both of these routes.

JFKSAN 2446 AA 19868 270.38 265.67 296.46 84.70% 160.7 163 75.83% 201.46 0.0824 79.29%
JFKSAN 2446 B6 46904 287.53 287.68 243.57 99.67% 159.0 334 88.32% 254.08 0.1039 100.00%
JFKSAN 2446 DL 64907 298.78 293.94 409.49 95.81% 163.0 469 84.90% 249.54 0.1020 98.21%
EWRSAN 2425 AS 21349 201.65 201.10 235.44 98.39% 175.9 162 74.92% 150.67 0.0621
EWRSAN 2425 UA 74405 334.41 330.85 403.42 95.09% 168.8 521 84.58% 279.83 0.1154
EWRSAN 2425 WN 15603 187.21 184.55 240.44 95.24% 170.3 137 66.87% 123.40 0.0509
BOSSAN 2588 AS 22039 257.68 255.33 343.14 97.32% 172.0 171 74.93% 191.32 0.0739 68.22%
BOSSAN 2588 B6 46086 314.98 315.44 273.40 98.89% 159.0 326 88.91% 280.46 0.1084 100.00%
Still good numbers for them on JFK-SAN in a weak yielding quarter. AA struggles. Terrible numbers for AS/WN over at EWR. And out of BOS, another strong quarter for mint. Makes sense for them to add that 3rd flight.

JFKSEA 2422 AA 15912 207.04 193.73 297.77 87.21% 160.3 153 64.87% 125.68 0.0519 70.73%
JFKSEA 2422 AS 72764 199.43 198.52 302.92 99.13% 175.8 518 79.89% 158.60 0.0655 89.26%
JFKSEA 2422 B6 43282 215.46 215.41 239.69 99.80% 159.0 330 82.49% 177.69 0.0734 100.00%
JFKSEA 2422 DL 85358 268.23 264.20 399.32 97.01% 173.9 573 85.65% 226.29 0.0934 127.35%
EWRSEA 2402 AS 54237 237.88 236.94 312.17 98.74% 174.5 387 80.31% 190.28 0.0792 N/A
EWRSEA 2402 UA 45095 301.71 289.00 415.48 89.95% 161.1 370 75.68% 218.70 0.0910 N/A
BOSSEA 2496 AS 48505 233.44 230.95 362.99 98.12% 173.2 330 84.87% 196.02 0.0785 109.84%
BOSSEA 2496 B6 41033 225.86 225.43 272.33 99.08% 159.0 326 79.16% 178.46 0.0715 100.00%
BOSSEA 2496 DL 26046 248.80 236.83 302.05 81.64% 160.0 208 78.27% 185.38 0.0743 103.88%
So if you need to know why AA will cut JFK-SEA permanently, this Q1 numbers should tell you why. I have never seen any legacy with that kind of yield or close to it on a transcon flight. B6's numbers were pretty poor, but seems like this is just a really low yielding quarter. And over at BOS, they still struggle here to get premium pricing for mint.

JFKLAS 2248 AA 43133 263.75 253.22 333.98 86.96% 161.2 326 82.09% 207.87 0.0925 91.24%
JFKLAS 2248 B6 79914 263.22 263.04 296.04 99.46% 172.5 535 86.62% 227.83 0.1013 100.00%
JFKLAS 2248 DL 134003 314.71 311.96 416.96 97.39% 179.6 881 84.67% 264.14 0.1175 115.93%
BOSLAS 2381 B6 72488 275.64 275.51 293.15 99.26% 156.8 563 82.14% 226.30 0.0950 100.00%
BOSLAS 2381 DL 20620 297.45 294.50 313.86 84.77% 160.1 149 86.43% 254.53 0.1069 112.48%
Again, LAS doesn't seem to be a market where mint is doing too great. This was probably their best quarter at JFK, but still trailing DL in yield. Over at BOS, not great numbers for B6.

and just a look at the secondary LA basin markets.
JFKBUR 2465 B6 39901 187.41 187.32 267.36 99.89% 151.2 316 83.49% 156.39 0.0634
JFKLGB 2465 B6 40908 190.60 188.55 269.67 97.48% 151.4 326 82.90% 156.31 0.0634
JFKONT 2429 B6 21685 170.70 170.70 000.00 100.00% 151.6 177 80.81% 137.94 0.0568
BOSBUR 2601 B6 13842 177.63 177.54 205.65 99.67% 152.9 161 56.23% 99.82 0.0384
BOSLGB 2602 B6 31232 192.88 191.32 284.79 98.33% 151.6 261 78.96% 151.06 0.0581
These are pretty low numbers around. Maybe it was just this past year, but seems like they tried to add too much transcon capacity.


Thank you! So I took a look at these figures vs Q1 2018 and calc’d the change in yield. Of course there is some variation due to holiday placement, but it’s still helpful for relative purposes of seeing where Mint is strengthening vs weakening:

JFK-LAX -4.5%
JFK-SFO -1.8%

BOS-SFO +10.8%
BOS-LAX -1.7%

FLL-LAX +14.1%
FLL-SFO +23.1%

JFK-SAN -5.1%
BOS-SAN +14.2%

JFK-SEA +16.5%
BOS-SEA +21.2%

JFK-LAS +1.6%
BOS-LAS -9.7%

Overall a mixed bag for JFK and BOS, and significant strength at FLL. FLL-LAX is especially impressive with the extra frequency. Let’s see how the 4th frequency impacts Q2/3.

BOS-SFO is coming back nicely, and SAN looks great too.

Nice to see SEA strengthening (although still weak).

On an absolute basis LAS is still very strong. It’s hard to gauge given that over half of the capacity is on non-Mint aircraft, but either way, it seems to be very profitable. JFK-LAS is especially impressive when considering one of the frequencies is on an all-core A321.

It seems the added (likely just barely profitable) capacity on JFK-LA is impacting JFK-LAX yields. Although, given the relatively cold LA winter this past year, it may be too early to draw any conclusions just yet as to the sustainability of these flights.

Let’s see if BOS-BUR improves with the retimed eastbound flight. Otherwise that’s a downright disaster.
 
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Runway28L
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 12:02 am

tphuang wrote:
One thing to note on BOS-LAX. B6/DL/UA were all running lie flat aircraft during Q1 and AA was not, so it wasn't terrible number, but still not good. Would be interesting to see how the incorporation of A321T did in Q2.

I'm struggling to figure out what AS can do to turn around transcon performance. Looks like they are not going to quit on those precious JFK slots, but it's certainly some painful performances.

But to me, the big story is how much AA is hurting in JFK. I don't see how that can be turned around.

AA is completely pulling the A321T off BOS-LAX in September. Perhaps that may be indicative of how “well” it performed.
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B752OS
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 12:03 am

tphuang wrote:
One thing to note on BOS-LAX. B6/DL/UA were all running lie flat aircraft during Q1 and AA was not, so it wasn't terrible number, but still not good. Would be interesting to see how the incorporation of A321T did in Q2.

I'm struggling to figure out what AS can do to turn around transcon performance. Looks like they are not going to quit on those precious JFK slots, but it's certainly some painful performances.

But to me, the big story is how much AA is hurting in JFK. I don't see how that can be turned around.


You have to wonder how long they'll stick around on routes like LAX-BOS and SAN-JFK?

It's interesting that JetBlue got very similar performance on both BOS-SEA and JFK-SEA.
 
phllax
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 12:58 am

B752OS wrote:
tphuang wrote:
One thing to note on BOS-LAX. B6/DL/UA were all running lie flat aircraft during Q1 and AA was not, so it wasn't terrible number, but still not good. Would be interesting to see how the incorporation of A321T did in Q2.

I'm struggling to figure out what AS can do to turn around transcon performance. Looks like they are not going to quit on those precious JFK slots, but it's certainly some painful performances.

But to me, the big story is how much AA is hurting in JFK. I don't see how that can be turned around.


You have to wonder how long they'll stick around on routes like LAX-BOS and SAN-JFK?

It's interesting that JetBlue got very similar performance on both BOS-SEA and JFK-SEA.


AA JFK-SAN has has been put on hiatus due to MAX issues.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 1:48 am

The YOY Q1 comparison is off because the Easter/Passover week moved to Q2 this year.

AA is a mess at JFK.

Too much capacity at BOS

As for B6 going north of 200 flights in BOS...they are bleeding money and it isnt a smart war.

I believe B6 and DL will need to learn to coexist like they do in JFK and in due time, that is likely where this will settle.
 
Brickell305
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 2:19 am

jfklganyc wrote:
The YOY Q1 comparison is off because the Easter/Passover week moved to Q2 this year.

AA is a mess at JFK.

Too much capacity at BOS

As for B6 going north of 200 flights in BOS...they are bleeding money and it isnt a smart war.

I believe B6 and DL will need to learn to coexist like they do in JFK and in due time, that is likely where this will settle.
Will they? NYC is a significantly larger market and as such, there’s simply more to go around for everyone. Also, part of the reason they can coexist at JFK is because a lot of DL’s domestic flights to JFK feed into its international service while the O&D domestic traffic is more likely to go to LGA. Meanwhile, B6’s domestic O&D to NYC mainly goes to JFK and the international portfolio they serve is vastly different from DL’s. That dynamic doesn’t exist to anywhere near the same extent in BOS where by and large both airlines are fighting for O&D domestic traffic primarily. DL doesn’t use domestic flights for international feed at BOS to the same extent they do at JFK and there’s no other airport within the metro that gets the bulk of the O&D domestic traffic.
 
nine4nine
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 3:56 am

jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
So Q1 results are out and I'm going to try to do some usual yield analysis here. Here are some quick summaries from glancing around some of the markets I track.
- DL is really eating AA's lunch at JFK. I know this is B6 thread, but it's pretty interesting to see how much DL is improving in performance at JFK vs B6 on some key markets while AA is declining in those markets (even vs 2 years ago). Seems like a lot of AA ff have jumped ship to DL and not many have joined B6.
- As B6 commented on in their own call, those JFK/BOS non-premium transcon markets were bloody. Even the usually reliable JFK-LGB/BUR were big losers in Q1.
- For this Q1, the weaker players in major BOS markets really show up. Unlike other quarters, you see a big gap between the yield of the dominant and secondary player. That bodes well for B6 in markets where they dominate like BUF/PIT/RIC/FLL/MCO, but not so great in markets like ATL/MSP/CLT/ORD
- As a whole, I would say they are maintaining their pricing power in BOS, but the overcapacity is crashing yields in many markets.

Anyways, here are the mint market numbers
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight Departures LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
JFKLAX 2475 AA 187013 533.34 538.93 381.29 96.45% 102.2 2089 87.58% 471.99 0.1907 181.70%
JFKLAX 2475 AS 106605 212.64 212.12 275.28 99.18% 167.7 860 73.90% 156.76 0.0633 60.35%
JFKLAX 2475 B6 241171 301.13 301.23 269.87 99.69% 159.0 1759 86.23% 259.76 0.1050 100.00%
JFKLAX 2475 DL 295893 369.79 366.83 513.40 97.98% 221.8 1603 83.23% 305.31 0.1234 117.53%
EWRLAX 2454 AS 62006 214.43 214.00 262.91 99.13% 167.1 448 82.84% 177.27 0.0722
EWRLAX 2454 UA 314290 318.45 314.97 522.67 98.32% 208.0 1665 90.76% 285.86 0.1165
This is pretty typical. AS is getting wiped out in these markets. Its yield is looking worse and worse. Hard to imagine you can do that terribly on a market with as much premium demand as JFK-LAX

JFKSFO 2586 AA 70138 538.28 538.51 533.11 95.74% 102.0 818 84.06% 452.68 0.1751 185.45%
JFKSFO 2586 AS 81245 223.65 222.93 268.39 98.41% 161.2 686 73.48% 163.80 0.0633 67.11%
JFKSFO 2586 B6 133471 294.90 294.86 310.10 99.70% 159.0 1014 82.79% 244.10 0.0944 100.00%
JFKSFO 2586 DL 167245 375.19 370.91 568.98 97.84% 179.7 1186 78.49% 291.14 0.1126 119.27%
EWRSFO 2565 AS 58656 208.46 207.23 268.93 98.01% 166.9 452 77.76% 161.13 0.0628 N/A
EWRSFO 2565 UA 331439 436.60 426.69 666.95 95.87% 194.9 1969 86.38% 368.59 0.1437 N/A
Not a great quarter for B6 here. They are normally a lot closer to DL yields than this. Again, you can see AS with just some horrendous numbers on a very premium route.

BOSSFO 2704 AS 35143 228.48 226.75 295.70 97.49% 161.3 313 69.61% 157.84 0.0584 64.16%
BOSSFO 2704 B6 110664 296.26 296.19 312.64 99.55% 159.0 838 83.05% 246.00 0.0910 100.00%
BOSSFO 2704 DL 22992 268.33 256.81 385.42 91.04% 199.0 180 64.19% 164.85 0.0610 67.01%
BOSSFO 2704 UA 119437 378.03 373.52 485.50 95.97% 156.2 904 84.56% 315.86 0.1168 128.40%
BOSLAX 2611 AA 107989 235.52 232.72 289.75 95.10% 171.9 740 84.88% 197.54 0.0757 86.48%
BOSLAX 2611 AS 19972 197.73 195.83 278.10 97.70% 169.4 174 67.77% 132.71 0.0508 58.10%
BOSLAX 2611 B6 92877 266.61 266.30 331.79 99.53% 159.0 681 85.78% 228.42 0.0875 100.00%
BOSLAX 2611 DL 43748 258.90 252.37 328.96 91.48% 164.8 319 83.22% 210.03 0.0804 91.95%
BOSLAX 2611 UA 50521 247.12 242.32 332.40 94.67% 169.3 379 78.75% 190.83 0.0731 83.54%
okay number for B6 on BOS-SFO given its a Q1. Absolutely horrible numbers for DL on that route. If they weren't trying to build a hub at BOS, this would've been gone a year ago. And pretty good numbers on BOS-LAX for B6. Even with DL and UA both using lie flat, they managed to have a pretty healthy premim. Again, AS is getting wiped out here.

FLLLAX 2343 AS 51520 247.69 247.54 301.47 99.71% 171.0 364 82.78% 204.90 0.0875 64.25%
FLLLAX 2343 B6 72399 355.54 355.06 494.70 99.66% 159.0 507 89.82% 318.90 0.1361 100.00%
MIALAX 2342 AA 241508 355.27 354.63 366.42 94.60% 189.3 1360 93.83% 332.76 0.1421 N/A
FLLSFO 2584 B6 52153 331.58 332.25 267.61 98.96% 159.0 360 91.12% 302.75 0.1172 100.00%
FLLSFO 2584 UA 28554 323.90 318.09 373.71 89.56% 171.5 192 86.71% 275.80 0.1067 91.10%
MIASFO 2585 AA 111462 304.45 300.28 386.41 95.16% 182.2 658 92.99% 279.23 0.1080 N/A
MIASFO 2585 UA 26064 347.55 339.97 439.48 92.38% 165.8 178 88.33% 300.31 0.1162 N/A
They added a 3rd flight for FLL-LAX which is doing reasonably well. Seems like AA did better at MIA in Q1. Over at, FLL-SFO, also very good numbers. They really should be permanently up the frequencies on both of these routes.

JFKSAN 2446 AA 19868 270.38 265.67 296.46 84.70% 160.7 163 75.83% 201.46 0.0824 79.29%
JFKSAN 2446 B6 46904 287.53 287.68 243.57 99.67% 159.0 334 88.32% 254.08 0.1039 100.00%
JFKSAN 2446 DL 64907 298.78 293.94 409.49 95.81% 163.0 469 84.90% 249.54 0.1020 98.21%
EWRSAN 2425 AS 21349 201.65 201.10 235.44 98.39% 175.9 162 74.92% 150.67 0.0621
EWRSAN 2425 UA 74405 334.41 330.85 403.42 95.09% 168.8 521 84.58% 279.83 0.1154
EWRSAN 2425 WN 15603 187.21 184.55 240.44 95.24% 170.3 137 66.87% 123.40 0.0509
BOSSAN 2588 AS 22039 257.68 255.33 343.14 97.32% 172.0 171 74.93% 191.32 0.0739 68.22%
BOSSAN 2588 B6 46086 314.98 315.44 273.40 98.89% 159.0 326 88.91% 280.46 0.1084 100.00%
Still good numbers for them on JFK-SAN in a weak yielding quarter. AA struggles. Terrible numbers for AS/WN over at EWR. And out of BOS, another strong quarter for mint. Makes sense for them to add that 3rd flight.

JFKSEA 2422 AA 15912 207.04 193.73 297.77 87.21% 160.3 153 64.87% 125.68 0.0519 70.73%
JFKSEA 2422 AS 72764 199.43 198.52 302.92 99.13% 175.8 518 79.89% 158.60 0.0655 89.26%
JFKSEA 2422 B6 43282 215.46 215.41 239.69 99.80% 159.0 330 82.49% 177.69 0.0734 100.00%
JFKSEA 2422 DL 85358 268.23 264.20 399.32 97.01% 173.9 573 85.65% 226.29 0.0934 127.35%
EWRSEA 2402 AS 54237 237.88 236.94 312.17 98.74% 174.5 387 80.31% 190.28 0.0792 N/A
EWRSEA 2402 UA 45095 301.71 289.00 415.48 89.95% 161.1 370 75.68% 218.70 0.0910 N/A
BOSSEA 2496 AS 48505 233.44 230.95 362.99 98.12% 173.2 330 84.87% 196.02 0.0785 109.84%
BOSSEA 2496 B6 41033 225.86 225.43 272.33 99.08% 159.0 326 79.16% 178.46 0.0715 100.00%
BOSSEA 2496 DL 26046 248.80 236.83 302.05 81.64% 160.0 208 78.27% 185.38 0.0743 103.88%
So if you need to know why AA will cut JFK-SEA permanently, this Q1 numbers should tell you why. I have never seen any legacy with that kind of yield or close to it on a transcon flight. B6's numbers were pretty poor, but seems like this is just a really low yielding quarter. And over at BOS, they still struggle here to get premium pricing for mint.

JFKLAS 2248 AA 43133 263.75 253.22 333.98 86.96% 161.2 326 82.09% 207.87 0.0925 91.24%
JFKLAS 2248 B6 79914 263.22 263.04 296.04 99.46% 172.5 535 86.62% 227.83 0.1013 100.00%
JFKLAS 2248 DL 134003 314.71 311.96 416.96 97.39% 179.6 881 84.67% 264.14 0.1175 115.93%
BOSLAS 2381 B6 72488 275.64 275.51 293.15 99.26% 156.8 563 82.14% 226.30 0.0950 100.00%
BOSLAS 2381 DL 20620 297.45 294.50 313.86 84.77% 160.1 149 86.43% 254.53 0.1069 112.48%
Again, LAS doesn't seem to be a market where mint is doing too great. This was probably their best quarter at JFK, but still trailing DL in yield. Over at BOS, not great numbers for B6.

and just a look at the secondary LA basin markets.
JFKBUR 2465 B6 39901 187.41 187.32 267.36 99.89% 151.2 316 83.49% 156.39 0.0634
JFKLGB 2465 B6 40908 190.60 188.55 269.67 97.48% 151.4 326 82.90% 156.31 0.0634
JFKONT 2429 B6 21685 170.70 170.70 000.00 100.00% 151.6 177 80.81% 137.94 0.0568
BOSBUR 2601 B6 13842 177.63 177.54 205.65 99.67% 152.9 161 56.23% 99.82 0.0384
BOSLGB 2602 B6 31232 192.88 191.32 284.79 98.33% 151.6 261 78.96% 151.06 0.0581
These are pretty low numbers around. Maybe it was just this past year, but seems like they tried to add too much transcon capacity.


Thank you! So I took a look at these figures vs Q1 2018 and calc’d the change in yield. Of course there is some variation due to holiday placement, but it’s still helpful for relative purposes of seeing where Mint is strengthening vs weakening:

JFK-LAX -4.5%
JFK-SFO -1.8%

BOS-SFO +10.8%
BOS-LAX -1.7%

FLL-LAX +14.1%
FLL-SFO +23.1%

JFK-SAN -5.1%
BOS-SAN +14.2%

JFK-SEA +16.5%
BOS-SEA +21.2%

JFK-LAS +1.6%
BOS-LAS -9.7%

Overall a mixed bag for JFK and BOS, and significant strength at FLL. FLL-LAX is especially impressive with the extra frequency. Let’s see how the 4th frequency impacts Q2/3.

BOS-SFO is coming back nicely, and SAN looks great too.

Nice to see SEA strengthening (although still weak).

On an absolute basis LAS is still very strong. It’s hard to gauge given that over half of the capacity is on non-Mint aircraft, but either way, it seems to be very profitable. JFK-LAS is especially impressive when considering one of the frequencies is on an all-core A321.

It seems the added (likely just barely profitable) capacity on JFK-LA is impacting JFK-LAX yields. Although, given the relatively cold LA winter this past year, it may be too early to draw any conclusions just yet as to the sustainability of these flights.

Let’s see if BOS-BUR improves with the retimed eastbound flight. Otherwise that’s a downright disaster.



Im pretty certain BOS-BUR will improve a quite bit with the recently re-timed flight. Arriving at a block time of 4:40am wasn’t very attractive and getting in earlier than that with a good tail wind was atrocious.
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MAH4546
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 5:12 am

B752OS wrote:
tphuang wrote:
One thing to note on BOS-LAX. B6/DL/UA were all running lie flat aircraft during Q1 and AA was not, so it wasn't terrible number, but still not good. Would be interesting to see how the incorporation of A321T did in Q2.

I'm struggling to figure out what AS can do to turn around transcon performance. Looks like they are not going to quit on those precious JFK slots, but it's certainly some painful performances.

But to me, the big story is how much AA is hurting in JFK. I don't see how that can be turned around.


You have to wonder how long they'll stick around on routes like LAX-BOS and SAN-JFK?

It's interesting that JetBlue got very similar performance on both BOS-SEA and JFK-SEA.



Really? AA is the single largest airline at LAX, and the single largest airline on BOSLAX, and you “have to wonder” how long they stay on the route? Seriously?

Look, they are a low quality carrier with a lot of problems, but there’s no wondering. AA is not going to leave Los Angeles-Boston unserved. That’s ludicrous.
a.
 
Planeboy17
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 10:34 am

jfklganyc wrote:
The YOY Q1 comparison is off because the Easter/Passover week moved to Q2 this year.

AA is a mess at JFK.

Too much capacity at BOS

As for B6 going north of 200 flights in BOS...they are bleeding money and it isnt a smart war.

I believe B6 and DL will need to learn to coexist like they do in JFK and in due time, that is likely where this will settle.

Can you show me exactly where B6 is “bleeding money”?
 
N757ST
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 11:23 am

jfklganyc wrote:
The YOY Q1 comparison is off because the Easter/Passover week moved to Q2 this year.

AA is a mess at JFK.

Too much capacity at BOS

As for B6 going north of 200 flights in BOS...they are bleeding money and it isnt a smart war.

I believe B6 and DL will need to learn to coexist like they do in JFK and in due time, that is likely where this will settle.


B6 isn’t bleeding money at Boston, but they aren’t making hand over fist like they we’re prior to the DL expansion. Either way the market will catch up. Delta’s intention was always to max out their facilities in Boston, and with the latest round of growth they are pretty much maxed out with little real estate to expand into, while B6 will continue expanding toward the E gates. The trans Atlantic expansion alone will likely increase connectivity and cause growth well past the 200 flight mark.
 
B752OS
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 11:47 am

MAH4546 wrote:
B752OS wrote:
tphuang wrote:
One thing to note on BOS-LAX. B6/DL/UA were all running lie flat aircraft during Q1 and AA was not, so it wasn't terrible number, but still not good. Would be interesting to see how the incorporation of A321T did in Q2.

I'm struggling to figure out what AS can do to turn around transcon performance. Looks like they are not going to quit on those precious JFK slots, but it's certainly some painful performances.

But to me, the big story is how much AA is hurting in JFK. I don't see how that can be turned around.


You have to wonder how long they'll stick around on routes like LAX-BOS and SAN-JFK?

It's interesting that JetBlue got very similar performance on both BOS-SEA and JFK-SEA.



Really? AA is the single largest airline at LAX, and the single largest airline on BOSLAX, and you “have to wonder” how long they stay on the route? Seriously?

Look, they are a low quality carrier with a lot of problems, but there’s no wondering. AA is not going to leave Los Angeles-Boston unserved. That’s ludicrous.


I was referring to Alaska, not American. Alaska seems to be getting hammered on a lot of their transcons and it makes you wonder how long they will keep running some of these very poor performers?
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 12:11 pm

Planeboy17 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
The YOY Q1 comparison is off because the Easter/Passover week moved to Q2 this year.

AA is a mess at JFK.

Too much capacity at BOS

As for B6 going north of 200 flights in BOS...they are bleeding money and it isnt a smart war.

I believe B6 and DL will need to learn to coexist like they do in JFK and in due time, that is likely where this will settle.

Can you show me exactly where B6 is “bleeding money”?


DFW HOU ATL MSP. Which route you want to talk about?
 
B752OS
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 12:31 pm

Is Jetblue at 4 daily, year round on FLL-LAX? Os is it at 3 daily year round and add in a 4th daily seasonal flight?

Perhaps they need to also up FLL-SFO to 3 daily year round and make FLL-LAX 4 daily year round? Maybe even up FLL-SAN to 2 daily year round by adding a morning FLL-SAN flight? At what point do they also begin service on FLL-SEA?
 
RL757PVD
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 12:57 pm

At $197 and 67% loads, AS would do better owning the entire market on PVD-LAX...
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 1:06 pm

B752OS wrote:
Is Jetblue at 4 daily, year round on FLL-LAX? Os is it at 3 daily year round and add in a 4th daily seasonal flight?

Perhaps they need to also up FLL-SFO to 3 daily year round and make FLL-LAX 4 daily year round? Maybe even up FLL-SAN to 2 daily year round by adding a morning FLL-SAN flight? At what point do they also begin service on FLL-SEA?

I think it's seasonal 4 daily. As a whole, there is a lot they can do here given lack of response from aa. I would think adding frequencies to lax and sfo would be profitable moves. And I think FLL sea is an obvious route to start. Maybe they are waiting for a321neo due to the long distance.

Also, Boston as a whole is decently profitable outside of q1. It wouldn't make sense for them to back off a market they might eventually dominate. Building a hub takes money and time. I will post the Boston numbers later. They are certainly hurting on services to legacy fortress hubs, but they also really dominate other routes.
 
mjzair
Posts: 387
Joined: Tue Nov 30, 1999 12:10 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 4:10 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Planeboy17 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
The YOY Q1 comparison is off because the Easter/Passover week moved to Q2 this year.

AA is a mess at JFK.

Too much capacity at BOS

As for B6 going north of 200 flights in BOS...they are bleeding money and it isnt a smart war.

I believe B6 and DL will need to learn to coexist like they do in JFK and in due time, that is likely where this will settle.

Can you show me exactly where B6 is “bleeding money”?


DFW HOU ATL MSP. Which route you want to talk about?


Ok, well, the bottom line is you infer that B6 is bleeding money as a whole in BOS, then you narrow it down to 4 routes. Which is it?
 
tphuang
Posts: 2892
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 5:01 pm

here are some of the Boston markets. Keep in mind in Q1, a lot of the numbers are far worse than rest of the quarters. Some of the business market show especially terrible numbers.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS SeatPerFlight Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSATL 946 B6 75058 123.64 123.33 340.00 99.86% 133.0 791 71.32% 87.97 0.0930 100.00%
BOSATL 946 DL 312381 171.55 168.16 300.30 97.43% 190.3 1900 86.38% 145.26 0.1536 165.14%
BOSATL 946 WN 35695 123.24 120.64 168.19 94.53% 153.7 321 72.36% 87.30 0.0923 99.25%
Believe it or not, B6's yields here are actually up over 20% vs Q1 last year. The relative yields are about the same. One big change is that B6 started operating a lot more E90 here and WN is down to less than 2 flights a day here from 3x last year. Going forward, WN is basically gone from this route during MAX shutdown and B6 is using a lot more E90. I assume we will see higher yields going forward, but pretty bloody all around. Also keep in mind that if you look at other hubs in NorthEast, the non-DL airline typically also fly lower capacity main line or RJ to ATL and struggle mightily. If you want to have a hub along east coast, bleeding hand over fist to ATL seems to be a requirement.

BOSAUS 1698 B6 21593 224.33 222.71 388.59 99.02% 146.2 176 83.89% 186.83 0.1100 100.00%
BOSAUS 1698 DL 15800 235.97 222.52 280.71 76.88% 156.3 150 67.41% 149.99 0.0883 80.28%
BOSAUS 1698 WN 17796 203.43 201.06 214.23 82.02% 171.7 134 77.37% 155.55 0.0916 83.26%
A very strong market for B6, they are actually down a little bit from Q1 last year, when they had an even more dominating performance here. Will be interesting to see the dynamics when they go 2x. I do see this as a market that can support the additional flight. Strong contender as an early A220 recipient.

BOSBWI 369 B6 59163 129.13 129.13 0.00 100.00% 100.4 814 72.41% 93.49 0.2534 100.00%
BOSBWI 369 WN 139993 126.56 126.56 0.00 100.00% 156.7 1166 76.61% 96.96 0.2628 103.71%
Another route where they are actually up 20% vs Q1 last year and got closer to WN. WN seems to have cut a flight and upgauged here.

BOSBUF 395 B6 37337 99.64 99.06 174.72 99.23% 100.4 559 66.53% 65.90 0.1668 100.00%
BOSBUF 395 DL 16058 97.17 94.80 148.58 95.59% 75.2 396 53.92% 51.12 0.1294 77.56%
This is one of a few markets I think DL will cut even as it expands in BOS. This kind of performance is simply unsustainable for them. This is down even compared to last year when the yields were already very low. I think over the next couple of years, all the BOS upstate New York routes will be B6 monopolies. I just don't see how AA can continue at ROC/SYR and DL can continue at BUF at this kind of yield level.

BOSCLT 728 AA 222456 180.19 178.85 230.68 97.40% 172.2 1525 84.73% 151.54 0.2082 135.88%
BOSCLT 728 B6 30493 139.35 139.35 0.00 100.00% 100.0 381 80.03% 111.53 0.1532 100.00%
The yields are down slightly from last year and gap vs AA got a little larger, but still better performing market than a lot of the ones DL entered. Will be interesting to see what happens as they got 5x here.

BOSORD 867 AA 142239 168.84 165.18 270.67 96.53% 165.7 1076 79.77% 131.77 0.1520 123.64%
BOSORD 867 B6 54581 136.59 136.54 146.79 99.59% 101.4 690 78.05% 106.57 0.1229 100.00%
BOSORD 867 UA 134285 193.98 191.86 317.38 98.31% 158.4 1061 79.90% 153.29 0.1768 143.84%
So the big change here is they went to 4 to 5x vs 2 to 3x previous year. The yields are more of less the same, but the gap vs UA ballooned. I see this as a market they can do well in summer time, but winter will always be a struggle.

BOSDCA 399 AA 197728 157.80 157.76 215.88 99.92% 121.9 2151 75.39% 118.93 0.2981 107.07%
BOSDCA 399 B6 121280 148.38 148.38 0.00 100.00% 105.8 1531 74.86% 111.08 0.2784 100.00%
Yields are up slightly vs last year and AA crept ahead of them in yield here. Again, interesting market to watch as they go to 14x here.

BOSCLE 563 B6 38077 120.49 120.49 0.00 100.00% 100.5 451 84.02% 101.24 0.1798 100.00%
BOSCLE 563 DL 8497 127.13 119.20 160.03 80.57% 75.6 149 75.39% 89.86 0.1596 88.77%
BOSCLE 563 UA 10692 181.92 168.37 280.54 87.92% 50.0 270 79.20% 133.35 0.2369 131.72%
These numbers are a little incomplete since DL entered in March when UA left the route. B6 yield here is flat YoY. I do think they are going to gain quite a bit with UA leaving, since they are now guaranteed to control pricing on this route. UA was always doing ok yield wise even though they give up on it.

BOSDEN 1754 B6 45087 205.70 205.45 303.12 99.75% 164.9 337 81.11% 166.65 0.0950 100.00%
BOSDEN 1754 UA 109768 268.27 266.10 350.28 97.43% 168.7 735 88.52% 235.56 0.1343 141.35%
BOSDEN 1754 WN 33448 197.77 195.58 211.44 86.17% 170.3 218 90.09% 176.20 0.1005 105.73%
Yield down slightly YoY while the gap with WN and UA stayed the same roughtly. Interesting enough, B6 upgauged to more A321 here along with 10% more flight, while WN operated fewer flight and UA semed to have added 1x daily.
 
phllax
Posts: 487
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 6:53 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 6:54 pm

tphuang wrote:
B752OS wrote:
Is Jetblue at 4 daily, year round on FLL-LAX? Os is it at 3 daily year round and add in a 4th daily seasonal flight?

Perhaps they need to also up FLL-SFO to 3 daily year round and make FLL-LAX 4 daily year round? Maybe even up FLL-SAN to 2 daily year round by adding a morning FLL-SAN flight? At what point do they also begin service on FLL-SEA?

I think it's seasonal 4 daily. As a whole, there is a lot they can do here given lack of response from aa. I would think adding frequencies to lax and sfo would be profitable moves. And I think FLL sea is an obvious route to start. Maybe they are waiting for a321neo due to the long distance.

Also, Boston as a whole is decently profitable outside of q1. It wouldn't make sense for them to back off a market they might eventually dominate. Building a hub takes money and time. I will post the Boston numbers later. They are certainly hurting on services to legacy fortress hubs, but they also really dominate other routes.


My issue is the timing of flights LA-FLL. First eastbound isn’t until nearly 10am, and the there is a big gap between westbound departures from 11am to 7pm or so.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2892
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 7:09 pm

phllax wrote:
tphuang wrote:
B752OS wrote:
Is Jetblue at 4 daily, year round on FLL-LAX? Os is it at 3 daily year round and add in a 4th daily seasonal flight?

Perhaps they need to also up FLL-SFO to 3 daily year round and make FLL-LAX 4 daily year round? Maybe even up FLL-SAN to 2 daily year round by adding a morning FLL-SAN flight? At what point do they also begin service on FLL-SEA?

I think it's seasonal 4 daily. As a whole, there is a lot they can do here given lack of response from aa. I would think adding frequencies to lax and sfo would be profitable moves. And I think FLL sea is an obvious route to start. Maybe they are waiting for a321neo due to the long distance.

Also, Boston as a whole is decently profitable outside of q1. It wouldn't make sense for them to back off a market they might eventually dominate. Building a hub takes money and time. I will post the Boston numbers later. They are certainly hurting on services to legacy fortress hubs, but they also really dominate other routes.


My issue is the timing of flights LA-FLL. First eastbound isn’t until nearly 10am, and the there is a big gap between westbound departures from 11am to 7pm or so.

Sounds like they have plenty of room for improvement on the schedule front. I would imagine it's pretty high on their list of adds for mint aircraft.
 
B752OS
Posts: 1140
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 4:05 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 7:55 pm

phllax wrote:
tphuang wrote:
B752OS wrote:
Is Jetblue at 4 daily, year round on FLL-LAX? Os is it at 3 daily year round and add in a 4th daily seasonal flight?

Perhaps they need to also up FLL-SFO to 3 daily year round and make FLL-LAX 4 daily year round? Maybe even up FLL-SAN to 2 daily year round by adding a morning FLL-SAN flight? At what point do they also begin service on FLL-SEA?

I think it's seasonal 4 daily. As a whole, there is a lot they can do here given lack of response from aa. I would think adding frequencies to lax and sfo would be profitable moves. And I think FLL sea is an obvious route to start. Maybe they are waiting for a321neo due to the long distance.

Also, Boston as a whole is decently profitable outside of q1. It wouldn't make sense for them to back off a market they might eventually dominate. Building a hub takes money and time. I will post the Boston numbers later. They are certainly hurting on services to legacy fortress hubs, but they also really dominate other routes.


My issue is the timing of flights LA-FLL. First eastbound isn’t until nearly 10am, and the there is a big gap between westbound departures from 11am to 7pm or so.


When they go 4 daily for the season, you have departures from Los Angeles at 9:30 am, 12:30 pm and 2:30 pm all PDT and then you have the later red-eye. Maybe they could re-time to move that 9:30 earlier to 8 am?

The timing on their SAN-FLL is just brutal - get into FLL at 4:15 am.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 25654
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 04, 2019 8:42 pm

B752OS wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
B752OS wrote:

You have to wonder how long they'll stick around on routes like LAX-BOS and SAN-JFK?

It's interesting that JetBlue got very similar performance on both BOS-SEA and JFK-SEA.



Really? AA is the single largest airline at LAX, and the single largest airline on BOSLAX, and you “have to wonder” how long they stay on the route? Seriously?

Look, they are a low quality carrier with a lot of problems, but there’s no wondering. AA is not going to leave Los Angeles-Boston unserved. That’s ludicrous.


I was referring to Alaska, not American. Alaska seems to be getting hammered on a lot of their transcons and it makes you wonder how long they will keep running some of these very poor performers?


Ah makes sense. I don’t think they exit the market. They have a strong long term focus on LAX and I’m sure will want to keep a market presence.
a.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3265
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 3:35 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
The YOY Q1 comparison is off because the Easter/Passover week moved to Q2 this year.

AA is a mess at JFK.

Too much capacity at BOS

As for B6 going north of 200 flights in BOS...they are bleeding money and it isnt a smart war.

I believe B6 and DL will need to learn to coexist like they do in JFK and in due time, that is likely where this will settle.


My point for the YOY comparison was to see which markets appear to show relative strength versus weakness. Based on that, it appears that the FLL markets are off to the races, SEA is improving, BOS-SFO/SAN are strengthening, and the others are basically in-line/slightly down.

Q1 2019 system RASM was -3.1% (as you noted likely due to the calendar placement). So when taking that into account, we can say that most Mint markets are net contributors to RASM improvement (some by a wide margin). The only negative contributors are BOS-LAS and JFK-SAN/LAX (by small amounts).

Agreed there is too much capacity in BOS transcon. Hard to imagine that both AA and AS are not bleeding money.

mjzair wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Planeboy17 wrote:
Can you show me exactly where B6 is “bleeding money”?


DFW HOU ATL MSP. Which route you want to talk about?


Ok, well, the bottom line is you infer that B6 is bleeding money as a whole in BOS, then you narrow it down to 4 routes. Which is it?


I think BOS as a whole is profitable for B6, but margins are certainly feeling pressure. Some of B6's largest losers are BOS-ATL/MSP/HOU, but they're making good money in the Mint markets, down to Florida and I presume the Islands, and some of the business and leisure markets (I presume DCA, RDU, MSY, AUS etc are quite profitable).

tphuang wrote:
here are some of the Boston markets. Keep in mind in Q1, a lot of the numbers are far worse than rest of the quarters. Some of the business market show especially terrible numbers.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS SeatPerFlight Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSATL 946 B6 75058 123.64 123.33 340.00 99.86% 133.0 791 71.32% 87.97 0.0930 100.00%
BOSATL 946 DL 312381 171.55 168.16 300.30 97.43% 190.3 1900 86.38% 145.26 0.1536 165.14%
BOSATL 946 WN 35695 123.24 120.64 168.19 94.53% 153.7 321 72.36% 87.30 0.0923 99.25%
Believe it or not, B6's yields here are actually up over 20% vs Q1 last year. The relative yields are about the same. One big change is that B6 started operating a lot more E90 here and WN is down to less than 2 flights a day here from 3x last year. Going forward, WN is basically gone from this route during MAX shutdown and B6 is using a lot more E90. I assume we will see higher yields going forward, but pretty bloody all around. Also keep in mind that if you look at other hubs in NorthEast, the non-DL airline typically also fly lower capacity main line or RJ to ATL and struggle mightily. If you want to have a hub along east coast, bleeding hand over fist to ATL seems to be a requirement.

BOSAUS 1698 B6 21593 224.33 222.71 388.59 99.02% 146.2 176 83.89% 186.83 0.1100 100.00%
BOSAUS 1698 DL 15800 235.97 222.52 280.71 76.88% 156.3 150 67.41% 149.99 0.0883 80.28%
BOSAUS 1698 WN 17796 203.43 201.06 214.23 82.02% 171.7 134 77.37% 155.55 0.0916 83.26%
A very strong market for B6, they are actually down a little bit from Q1 last year, when they had an even more dominating performance here. Will be interesting to see the dynamics when they go 2x. I do see this as a market that can support the additional flight. Strong contender as an early A220 recipient.

BOSBWI 369 B6 59163 129.13 129.13 0.00 100.00% 100.4 814 72.41% 93.49 0.2534 100.00%
BOSBWI 369 WN 139993 126.56 126.56 0.00 100.00% 156.7 1166 76.61% 96.96 0.2628 103.71%
Another route where they are actually up 20% vs Q1 last year and got closer to WN. WN seems to have cut a flight and upgauged here.

BOSBUF 395 B6 37337 99.64 99.06 174.72 99.23% 100.4 559 66.53% 65.90 0.1668 100.00%
BOSBUF 395 DL 16058 97.17 94.80 148.58 95.59% 75.2 396 53.92% 51.12 0.1294 77.56%
This is one of a few markets I think DL will cut even as it expands in BOS. This kind of performance is simply unsustainable for them. This is down even compared to last year when the yields were already very low. I think over the next couple of years, all the BOS upstate New York routes will be B6 monopolies. I just don't see how AA can continue at ROC/SYR and DL can continue at BUF at this kind of yield level.

BOSCLT 728 AA 222456 180.19 178.85 230.68 97.40% 172.2 1525 84.73% 151.54 0.2082 135.88%
BOSCLT 728 B6 30493 139.35 139.35 0.00 100.00% 100.0 381 80.03% 111.53 0.1532 100.00%
The yields are down slightly from last year and gap vs AA got a little larger, but still better performing market than a lot of the ones DL entered. Will be interesting to see what happens as they got 5x here.

BOSORD 867 AA 142239 168.84 165.18 270.67 96.53% 165.7 1076 79.77% 131.77 0.1520 123.64%
BOSORD 867 B6 54581 136.59 136.54 146.79 99.59% 101.4 690 78.05% 106.57 0.1229 100.00%
BOSORD 867 UA 134285 193.98 191.86 317.38 98.31% 158.4 1061 79.90% 153.29 0.1768 143.84%
So the big change here is they went to 4 to 5x vs 2 to 3x previous year. The yields are more of less the same, but the gap vs UA ballooned. I see this as a market they can do well in summer time, but winter will always be a struggle.

BOSDCA 399 AA 197728 157.80 157.76 215.88 99.92% 121.9 2151 75.39% 118.93 0.2981 107.07%
BOSDCA 399 B6 121280 148.38 148.38 0.00 100.00% 105.8 1531 74.86% 111.08 0.2784 100.00%
Yields are up slightly vs last year and AA crept ahead of them in yield here. Again, interesting market to watch as they go to 14x here.

BOSCLE 563 B6 38077 120.49 120.49 0.00 100.00% 100.5 451 84.02% 101.24 0.1798 100.00%
BOSCLE 563 DL 8497 127.13 119.20 160.03 80.57% 75.6 149 75.39% 89.86 0.1596 88.77%
BOSCLE 563 UA 10692 181.92 168.37 280.54 87.92% 50.0 270 79.20% 133.35 0.2369 131.72%
These numbers are a little incomplete since DL entered in March when UA left the route. B6 yield here is flat YoY. I do think they are going to gain quite a bit with UA leaving, since they are now guaranteed to control pricing on this route. UA was always doing ok yield wise even though they give up on it.

BOSDEN 1754 B6 45087 205.70 205.45 303.12 99.75% 164.9 337 81.11% 166.65 0.0950 100.00%
BOSDEN 1754 UA 109768 268.27 266.10 350.28 97.43% 168.7 735 88.52% 235.56 0.1343 141.35%
BOSDEN 1754 WN 33448 197.77 195.58 211.44 86.17% 170.3 218 90.09% 176.20 0.1005 105.73%
Yield down slightly YoY while the gap with WN and UA stayed the same roughtly. Interesting enough, B6 upgauged to more A321 here along with 10% more flight, while WN operated fewer flight and UA semed to have added 1x daily.


Thanks.

Good to see BOSATL yields improve, although the higher CASM E190 probably isn't helping margins all that much. I think the point here is to reduce the red ink while still providing sufficient frequency for business travelers.

It's interesting that the gap between DL and B6 on BOS-AUS/BUF has remained pretty wide despite DL being in these markets for over a year. I'm still pretty dumbfounded about how badly DL is performing on BOS-SFO while BOS-LAX performance appears to be improving. This doesn't seem to imply traction with the BOS-based passenger (which would surprise me, given how much they have grown both domestically and internationally).

B6 is smart to deploy the A321 on BOS-DEN while its competitors are using denser aircraft. I bet they are making okay money here (especially when considering one of the return flights is a redeye).
 
Planeboy17
Posts: 273
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 3:42 pm

mjzair wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Planeboy17 wrote:
Can you show me exactly where B6 is “bleeding money”?


DFW HOU ATL MSP. Which route you want to talk about?


Ok, well, the bottom line is you infer that B6 is bleeding money as a whole in BOS, then you narrow it down to 4 routes. Which is it?

Exactly.
They fly to over 40 stations nonstop out of BOS and he chose 4 (2 of which are DL’s largest hubs) to show how B6 is “ bleeding money”.
Using the data that tphuang showed there are 3 routes where B6 is getting a higher avg fare than DL.
BOS-SFO
BOS-LAX
BOS-BUF
That’s without information from other routes out of BOS.
And what war did B6 start? Should they just ignore what DL is attempting to do in BOS? I guess he thinks that AS should’ve just left SEA after DL decided to make it a hub. And now I guess he thinks B6 should just pack up and leave BOS because DL is now doing the same thing in BOS?
His statements make no sense.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 5366
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 3:51 pm

mjzair wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Planeboy17 wrote:
Can you show me exactly where B6 is “bleeding money”?


DFW HOU ATL MSP. Which route you want to talk about?


Ok, well, the bottom line is you infer that B6 is bleeding money as a whole in BOS, then you narrow it down to 4 routes. Which is it?




Sadly it is not just the 4 routes

The easy stuff was started early on

The somewhat harder stuff was already added under the mantra that the newer harder stuff made the previously added harder stuff better.

This worked for years.

It no longer works.

Delta is in the easy markets. Delta is starting the harder markets. Delta is in or creates (to hubs) the hardest markets.


Anything B6 adds from here on out is going to be a money losing slug fest in which B6 tries to defend itself and gain an offense against a bigger rival

Let’s hope for a detente. For the future of B6, let’s hope for a detente
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 2996
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 4:04 pm

The big problem is the adds from here on out all involve cities where 3x 120-150 seat aircraft is overkill, and especially when up against DL who will fly alongside with E175. Once the E190s are gone Jetblue lacks the proper size aircraft to have business friendly schedules to Places like MKE CMH IND SDF MCI GSP GSO ORF. As long as the entry level aircraft is 120+ seats, delta will be able to offer a more appealing portfolio to BOS based business travelers.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
mjzair
Posts: 387
Joined: Tue Nov 30, 1999 12:10 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 4:12 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
mjzair wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:

DFW HOU ATL MSP. Which route you want to talk about?


Ok, well, the bottom line is you infer that B6 is bleeding money as a whole in BOS, then you narrow it down to 4 routes. Which is it?




Sadly it is not just the 4 routes

The easy stuff was started early on

The somewhat harder stuff was already added under the mantra that the newer harder stuff made the previously added harder stuff better.

This worked for years.

It no longer works.

Delta is in the easy markets. Delta is starting the harder markets. Delta is in or creates (to hubs) the hardest markets.


Anything B6 adds from here on out is going to be a money losing slug fest in which B6 tries to defend itself and gain an offense against a bigger rival

Let’s hope for a detente. For the future of B6, let’s hope for a detente


Still can't back up your claim that B6 IS bleeding money in BOS.... but that's ok, you have rarely had anything good to say about B6
 
Planeboy17
Posts: 273
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 5:24 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
mjzair wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:

DFW HOU ATL MSP. Which route you want to talk about?


Ok, well, the bottom line is you infer that B6 is bleeding money as a whole in BOS, then you narrow it down to 4 routes. Which is it?




Sadly it is not just the 4 routes

The easy stuff was started early on

The somewhat harder stuff was already added under the mantra that the newer harder stuff made the previously added harder stuff better.

This worked for years.

It no longer works.

Delta is in the easy markets. Delta is starting the harder markets. Delta is in or creates (to hubs) the hardest markets.


Anything B6 adds from here on out is going to be a money losing slug fest in which B6 tries to defend itself and gain an offense against a bigger rival

Let’s hope for a detente. For the future of B6, let’s hope for a detente

Thanks for the response.
Of course you provided 0% factual data and 100% personal opinion in your response.
I don’t know if you just really dislike B6 or really love DL or both, but you certainly don’t seem very objective when it comes to this topic.
 
Planeboy17
Posts: 273
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 5:26 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
The big problem is the adds from here on out all involve cities where 3x 120-150 seat aircraft is overkill, and especially when up against DL who will fly alongside with E175. Once the E190s are gone Jetblue lacks the proper size aircraft to have business friendly schedules to Places like MKE CMH IND SDF MCI GSP GSO ORF. As long as the entry level aircraft is 120+ seats, delta will be able to offer a more appealing portfolio to BOS based business travelers.

B6 is getting A200-300s starting in 4Q of 2020.
70 firm orders with 50 options and can swap to 100s as well.
 
Planeboy17
Posts: 273
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 5:31 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
The big problem is the adds from here on out all involve cities where 3x 120-150 seat aircraft is overkill, and especially when up against DL who will fly alongside with E175. Once the E190s are gone Jetblue lacks the proper size aircraft to have business friendly schedules to Places like MKE CMH IND SDF MCI GSP GSO ORF. As long as the entry level aircraft is 120+ seats, delta will be able to offer a more appealing portfolio to BOS based business travelers.

Your also forgetting that there will be a lot of additional Europe routes.
How many? Who knows right now, but I wouldn’t be shocked if B6 is flying to 7-10 European destinations in the next 5-7 years from BOS. They ordered a lot of LRs and XLRs, 23 total I think. They’re going to fly them somewhere.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 526
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 5:50 pm

Planeboy17 wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
The big problem is the adds from here on out all involve cities where 3x 120-150 seat aircraft is overkill, and especially when up against DL who will fly alongside with E175. Once the E190s are gone Jetblue lacks the proper size aircraft to have business friendly schedules to Places like MKE CMH IND SDF MCI GSP GSO ORF. As long as the entry level aircraft is 120+ seats, delta will be able to offer a more appealing portfolio to BOS based business travelers.

Your also forgetting that there will be a lot of additional Europe routes.
How many? Who knows right now, but I wouldn’t be shocked if B6 is flying to 7-10 European destinations in the next 5-7 years from BOS. They ordered a lot of LRs and XLRs, 23 total I think. They’re going to fly them somewhere.

7-10 European routes? Where exactly? Beyond the obvious LON & PAR, there isn't much low hanging fruit out of BOS to Europe. Out of JFK maybe they may be able to get to that level of operation but even that seems like a stretch, especially with no partners on the Euro end.
 
RL757PVD
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 6:21 pm

The A220 is LARGER than the E190 making their entry-level size aircraft problem worse, not better. Combined with a DL response, places like IND CMH MKE MCI ORF GSP etc are not 400 PDEW markets from BOS, regardless of what the Boston Aviation thread might tell you....

and saying it will be Europe feed doesn't work either because thats really only one bank, and at a time when they will be most constrained for gates.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
B752OS
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 6:36 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
The A220 is LARGER than the E190 making their entry-level size aircraft problem worse, not better. Combined with a DL response, places like IND CMH MKE MCI ORF GSP etc are not 400 PDEW markets from BOS, regardless of what the Boston Aviation thread might tell you....

and saying it will be Europe feed doesn't work either because thats really only one bank, and at a time when they will be most constrained for gates.


Who on the Boston thread suggested that Norfolk was a 400 PDEW market from Boston? Who suggested that Greenville was a 400 PDEW market from Boston?
 
B752OS
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 6:43 pm

Planeboy17 wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
The big problem is the adds from here on out all involve cities where 3x 120-150 seat aircraft is overkill, and especially when up against DL who will fly alongside with E175. Once the E190s are gone Jetblue lacks the proper size aircraft to have business friendly schedules to Places like MKE CMH IND SDF MCI GSP GSO ORF. As long as the entry level aircraft is 120+ seats, delta will be able to offer a more appealing portfolio to BOS based business travelers.

Your also forgetting that there will be a lot of additional Europe routes.
How many? Who knows right now, but I wouldn’t be shocked if B6 is flying to 7-10 European destinations in the next 5-7 years from BOS. They ordered a lot of LRs and XLRs, 23 total I think. They’re going to fly them somewhere.


I don't think we'll see JetBlue flying to up to 10 cities from Boston, or even New York. Their flights to London are still 2 years away and it's going to take them some time to really establish those flights. London from both Boston and New York are already very crowded. While New York is the much larger market to London, just look at how many airlines and how many daily flights already exist - it's very crowded. I think best case for JetBlue is that come 2026, they serve 6 cities in total to Europe. Madrid, London, Paris, Rome, Dublin and Brussels/Amsterdam. Delta has already built out a pretty solid European network from Boston. London, Paris and Amsterdam are all served daily and year round. Edinburgh, Dublin and Lisbon are all served seasonally. Plus you have SkyTeam partner Alitalia serving Rome. They clearly have a big lead on JetBlue from Boston (New York even more so). I'd be curious if we see SkyTeam partner Air Europa make a return to Boston with seasonal service to Madrid? Or if Delta themselves starts Boston to Madrid on a seasonal basis?
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 7:41 pm

jfklganyc wrote:

Delta is in the easy markets. Delta is starting the harder markets. Delta is in or creates (to hubs) the hardest markets.


Anything B6 adds from here on out is going to be a money losing slug fest in which B6 tries to defend itself and gain an offense against a bigger rival

Let’s hope for a detente. For the future of B6, let’s hope for a detente

Sorry I have to disagree with you on this, even though I do respect your views a lot.

There have been very few easy market for Delta in Boston. The only domestic routes they make money on from what I can see are SLC, IND, CMH, CVG, DTW and LGA. Everything else ranges from around breaking even like RDU, MCO and LAS to outright disasters like SFO, PIT, BUF, RIC. They even lose money to ATL and MSP! And everything it adds from now will look like PIT basically. And it's basically getting close to being gate constrained. There is no relief in sight and they are unlikely to win too many *A or OW ff given their weakness in the major business market to them.

What their buildup has done is forced B6 to raise its game in Boston earlier than it was hoping to. Without DL buildup, we might still be seeing 3x daily to ORD or 6x daily to PHL for example. As a whole, Boston is probably right around average in the systems in margins and unlikely to get any worse than that given that DL is getting gate constrained and other carriers are reducing capacity at BOS.

They've already added the most painful routes. From now on, they just need to stop adding flights to places with no demand like PSP, HAV and secondary LA airport and starting to serve underserved cities like MEM, SDF. Note to JetBlue, just because flights have demands out of JFK, doesn't mean they will have demand out of BOS.

We want them to grow at JFK, but there is no slot relief unless they persuade AA to sell some of theirs. So JFK better keep making money with the slots they have.

jetbluefan1 wrote:

Ok, well, the bottom line is you infer that B6 is bleeding money as a whole in BOS, then you narrow it down to 4 routes. Which is it?


I think BOS as a whole is profitable for B6, but margins are certainly feeling pressure. Some of B6's largest losers are BOS-ATL/MSP/HOU, but they're making good money in the Mint markets, down to Florida and I presume the Islands, and some of the business and leisure markets (I presume DCA, RDU, MSY, AUS etc are quite profitable).
[/quote]
I think the last couple of years have been a blip on the radar. BOS is unlikely to see such a jump in capacity after the end of this year. And honestly, the biggest reasons for BOS becoming less profitable is not DL's adds, but rather B6 jumping into LGA, ATL and MSP. All 3 routes are huge red ink. And those are going to take time to resolve from either more connectivity, more LGA slots and A220 joining service. Those really profitable leisure markets out of BOS haven't really gotten less profitable.

And going forward, DL is unlikely to add too many more flights given the gate constrained and other airlines are cutting back due to the competition. And there is no threat of NK or any other ULCC buildup at BOS. So if BOS keeps adding 10 flights a year with some upgauging (let's say 10 to 15% boost in ASM), Boston is still only going to probably grow 5% in ASM domestically and that's sustainable growth for an airport like Boston as long as B6 keeps adding connectivity there.

And also, one other thing to consider is credit card sign ups and mosaic members. The area including/between Boston and New York probably has the largest concentration of JetBlue credit card members and mosaic members. That kind of stuff isn't really evident in these members but really contribute to the bottom line.

And I think it's obvious that TATL flights are going to be a major boon to them in both categories for both Boston and New York. Once they start flying to Europe, what is DL's advantage over them in Boston? That they have better schedule to ATL and MSP? They just need to keep holding on once they get to that point. DL's current yields are not sustainable.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 8:04 pm

B752OS wrote:
Planeboy17 wrote:
RL757PVD wrote:
The big problem is the adds from here on out all involve cities where 3x 120-150 seat aircraft is overkill, and especially when up against DL who will fly alongside with E175. Once the E190s are gone Jetblue lacks the proper size aircraft to have business friendly schedules to Places like MKE CMH IND SDF MCI GSP GSO ORF. As long as the entry level aircraft is 120+ seats, delta will be able to offer a more appealing portfolio to BOS based business travelers.

Your also forgetting that there will be a lot of additional Europe routes.
How many? Who knows right now, but I wouldn’t be shocked if B6 is flying to 7-10 European destinations in the next 5-7 years from BOS. They ordered a lot of LRs and XLRs, 23 total I think. They’re going to fly them somewhere.


I don't think we'll see JetBlue flying to up to 10 cities from Boston, or even New York. Their flights to London are still 2 years away and it's going to take them some time to really establish those flights. London from both Boston and New York are already very crowded. While New York is the much larger market to London, just look at how many airlines and how many daily flights already exist - it's very crowded. I think best case for JetBlue is that come 2026, they serve 6 cities in total to Europe. Madrid, London, Paris, Rome, Dublin and Brussels/Amsterdam. Delta has already built out a pretty solid European network from Boston. London, Paris and Amsterdam are all served daily and year round. Edinburgh, Dublin and Lisbon are all served seasonally. Plus you have SkyTeam partner Alitalia serving Rome. They clearly have a big lead on JetBlue from Boston (New York even more so). I'd be curious if we see SkyTeam partner Air Europa make a return to Boston with seasonal service to Madrid? Or if Delta themselves starts Boston to Madrid on a seasonal basis?


They will get 26 A321LR/XLR by 2025, so i expect that to be 26 R/Ts assuming that they can schedule things well.

With the first 13 A321LR, I expect 3x BOS, 4x JFK to Lon, 1xBOS,1xJFK each to DUB/AMS/CDG. JFK is serving mainly the O&D and Boston is the TATL hub. Out of the second batch of 13 XLR, I expect up to 10 to go to BOS. That's where they can get really creative. With only 140 seats to fill on a premium configured A321XLR, they can add to FRA, MUC, MAN, MAD, BCN, FCO, MXP, NCE and a couple of summer seasonals locations like ATH. I don't see them adding to Portugal or secondary Ireland given their relationship with TP and EI.

And given what LH has already said, there is a lot of TATL legacy carriers that are dreading B6 tanking J and one way Y fares in TATL market.

Keep in mind, B6 is a lot stronger than DL at BOS. And it has lower cost and an aircraft with fewer seat. There are things B6 can make work that DL simply cannot. I would be shocked if B6 has a smaller TATL presence than DL by 2025 out of BOS.

RL757PVD wrote:
The big problem is the adds from here on out all involve cities where 3x 120-150 seat aircraft is overkill, and especially when up against DL who will fly alongside with E175. Once the E190s are gone Jetblue lacks the proper size aircraft to have business friendly schedules to Places like MKE CMH IND SDF MCI GSP GSO ORF. As long as the entry level aircraft is 120+ seats, delta will be able to offer a more appealing portfolio to BOS based business travelers.


If you look at the numbers i posted above, they control point of sale from Boston to these non-fortress hub markets. In the markets where frequency matters, they've been able to get higher fare and LF while operating E90s against DL E70s. DL simply can't fill those seats in the slow season. I think there is just been a general overestimation of DL's strength in Boston on this forum. It's not apparent to me DL is stronger than AA or UA at this point.

It's unknown at this point if they will keep 100 to 120 seat option once 2025 rolls around, but I would expect them to do so. Even if they don't, the total operating cost of A220-300 is just slightly more than E90, so they can even replace them 1-to-1 on the same route with more empty seats.

If you look at an example of BOS-ROC (which I posted on the Upstate New York thread), just by offering 1x E90 vs 3x E45 of AA, they've been able to completely tank AA's yield on that route while maintaining an acceptable yield for Q1.

And for the markets you mentioned, I would expect them to go into most of those markets. In the case of MEM and SDF, there is enough daily demand to fill at least one A220-300. With direct route and low fare stimulation + connectivity, they can eventually buildup to 2x in those markets. And for markets like IND/CVG/CMH, there is enough demand there for them to go in with 2x E90 and make them work out. A while back BOS-BNA had no direct flight, now there are going to be 11x during peak days. And B6 is getting great yield running A320s vs DL's RJ and reaping the benefits of much lower cost of large single aisle aircraft.

Remember, as they grow BOS domestically and to Europe, there will be more connectivity, which will help feel these aircraft.
 
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Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 8:20 pm

I don't see why B6 should stay the lower cost carrier forever. Maybe their workforce will eventually demanded the same compensation as the legacies. Then B6 has no longer the advantage.
 
B752OS
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 8:31 pm

Won't the A220s allow JetBlue to add frequency to places like Portland, San Jose, Phoenix and Salt Lake City? Maybe even allow them to right size some Midwest and West Coast markets where they can maintain frequency but lower the capacity?
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 9:45 pm

B752OS wrote:
Won't the A220s allow JetBlue to add frequency to places like Portland, San Jose, Phoenix and Salt Lake City? Maybe even allow them to right size some Midwest and West Coast markets where they can maintain frequency but lower the capacity?

Absolutely, BOS should be far and away the largest A220 station for them. All those cities you mentioned should get A220, since 162 seat A320 is a little too much capacity. And any cities that are too costly for E90 to operate but A320 capacity is a little too much like AUS, IAH, DFW, MSP, ATL and MSY. Plus, B6 A220 will be easily the best product in any market they enter. They can keep A320 and A321 in the more leisure markets.

JetBlue should still have lower cost in general due to lack of the fleet complexity, lounges, network alliances, legacy pension cost and such. After all, WN pays industry standard wages to its pilot and has been around for many years, but have better cost control than JetBlue.
 
Bluewho
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 05, 2019 11:44 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
mjzair wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:

DFW HOU ATL MSP. Which route you want to talk about?


Ok, well, the bottom line is you infer that B6 is bleeding money as a whole in BOS, then you narrow it down to 4 routes. Which is it?




Sadly it is not just the 4 routes

The easy stuff was started early on

The somewhat harder stuff was already added under the mantra that the newer harder stuff made the previously added harder stuff better.

This worked for years.

It no longer works.

Delta is in the easy markets. Delta is starting the harder markets. Delta is in or creates (to hubs) the hardest markets.


Anything B6 adds from here on out is going to be a money losing slug fest in which B6 tries to defend itself and gain an offense against a bigger rival

Let’s hope for a detente. For the future of B6, let’s hope for a detente




Except unless Delta finds way more gates they will be done growing. So it’s not like Delta can keep piling on.

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