tphuang
Posts: 2902
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 2:14 am

a few more Boston numbers.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS SeatPerFlight Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSDFW 1562 AA 156480 253.55 250.79 288.20 92.62% 174.2 1016 88.40% 221.69 0.1419 165.35%
BOSDFW 1562 B6 34763 155.60 155.60 0.00 100.00% 144.1 280 86.16% 134.07 0.0858 100.00%
Obviously a tough market. At some point, they need to switch over to A220 here and add a flight or 2. The current mix of A320 + E90s just aren't going to do well here. Their yield here didn't change YoY. AA's fare and LF both went up, so not the greatest quarter.

BOSDTW 632 B6 37036 135.89 135.89 0.00 100.00% 100.5 477 77.29% 105.03 0.1662 100.00%
BOSDTW 632 DL 128604 165.89 163.47 238.58 96.79% 157.3 1043 78.40% 128.17 0.2028 122.03%
Looks like B6 closed the gap here in yield with DL a little vs last year by using exclusively E90s. DL upgauged a bit, cutting about 8% in flight. B6's yield is slightly up YoY due to downgauging to all E90s

BOSRSW 1249 B6 157754 239.79 239.74 247.11 99.32% 154.5 1181 86.44% 207.22 0.1659 100.00%
BOSRSW 1249 DL 19992 193.98 189.43 211.13 79.04% 130.4 189 81.14% 153.69 0.1231 74.17%
Obviously a market dominated by B6. The yields are up YoY. Very profitable market for them. In general, RSW is a hugely profitable station. They should look to add more flights there. Gap vs DL is basically the same YoY.

BOSJAX 1010 B6 43416 152.04 151.24 222.48 98.88% 110.0 499 79.10% 119.62 0.1184 100.00%
BOSJAX 1010 DL 17038 154.15 149.50 199.96 90.79% 71.4 317 75.26% 112.52 0.1114 94.06%
A less profitable Florida market for B6. Yields are down 20% YoY. Seems like too much capacity here and DL is scheduling for another flight this year. Crazy if you ask me given they are getting $110 a seat for a 1000 mile route on mostly 70 seat RJ. Gap with DL decreased a little but DL also downgauged to mostly 70 seaters.

BOSHOU 1609 B6 19610 164.20 164.20 0.00 100.00% 138.0 172 82.62% 135.66 0.0843 100.00%
BOSHOU 1609 WN 21961 176.96 175.90 180.27 75.76% 159.4 156 88.31% 155.34 0.0965 114.51%
Yields are up for both airlines YoY. it almost looks acceptable for Q1 after seeing the ATL numbers. WN also cut back capacity and flights vs last year. This is one market that they need A220 desperately. A320 is just too much capacity in winter time and E90 cost is too high.

BOSMCO 1121 B6 184353 203.77 203.40 224.05 98.18% 179.3 1212 84.81% 172.51 0.1539 100.00%
BOSMCO 1121 DL 67285 189.98 189.25 196.60 90.04% 158.4 493 86.15% 163.05 0.1454 94.51%
Yields are up slightly YoY and capacity is also up with 6-7% more flights. The gap between B6 and DL is the same YoY. Which is good given DL had caught up to B6 over the summer quarters.

BOSFLL 1237 B6 131974 234.69 233.70 260.89 96.37% 146.7 1008 89.27% 208.63 0.1687 100.00%
BOSFLL 1237 DL 35062 187.29 188.00 183.87 82.90% 157.0 242 92.30% 173.52 0.1403 83.17%
Yields are up here over 10% YoY and numbers of flights actually down 5% Obviously a very profitable market. Gap with DL narrowed slightly.

BOSBNA 942 B6 35712 127.19 127.19 0.00 100.00% 148.0 305 79.12% 100.64 0.1068 100.00%
BOSBNA 942 DL 25269 161.87 158.12 193.39 89.37% 72.5 446 78.10% 123.49 0.1311 122.71%
BOSBNA 942 WN 43010 125.29 121.06 151.43 86.08% 159.4 335 80.53% 97.49 0.1035 96.87%
Yields are up slightly YoY. They again managed to exceed WN in yield on this route while both using A320/B737 class aircraft. DL does seem to capture quite a bit of BNA traffic given that they increased gap vs B6 slightly after adding a flight + using more 70 seaters. Keep in mind, DL is running mostly 70 seaters here vs B6's A320 (normally it's 76 seaters vs E90), so the cost for DL would be really high here compared to B6/WN.

BOSMSY 1368 B6 31190 226.79 226.52 368.67 99.81% 127.5 273 89.63% 203.03 0.1484 100.00%
Yield is up 15% YoY. Very profitable market.

BOSEWR 200 B6 43860 147.73 147.73 0.00 100.00% 100.6 734 59.37% 87.71 0.4386 100.00%
BOSEWR 200 UA 173817 210.44 210.44 0.00 100.00% 149.1 1505 77.47% 163.02 0.8151 185.86%
Not really sure how much UA traffic here is actually O&D. Yield for B6 is basically unchanged YoY.
 
MKIAZ
Posts: 238
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 5:24 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:01 am

B752OS wrote:
I think best case for JetBlue is that come 2026, they serve 6 cities in total to Europe. Madrid, London, Paris, Rome, Dublin and Brussels/Amsterdam.


I think we will see way more than that. The whole point of B6 and the 321XLR is the CASM is going to be insanely lower than say an AA 763. If AA can fly a 763 to VCE or PRG, there is 0 reason B6 can't make good money on a 321XLR out of JFK. And they can offer onward US connections that the euro ULCC's can't.
 
MKIAZ
Posts: 238
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 5:24 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:05 am

tphuang wrote:
B752OS wrote:
Won't the A220s allow JetBlue to add frequency to places like Portland, San Jose, Phoenix and Salt Lake City? Maybe even allow them to right size some Midwest and West Coast markets where they can maintain frequency but lower the capacity?

Absolutely, BOS should be far and away the largest A220 station for them. All those cities you mentioned should get A220, since 162 seat A320 is a little too much capacity. And any cities that are too costly for E90 to operate but A320 capacity is a little too much like AUS, IAH, DFW, MSP, ATL and MSY. Plus, B6 A220 will be easily the best product in any market they enter. They can keep A320 and A321 in the more leisure markets.


Not to mention SNA. They could easily use a few frames running JFK/BOS/FLL. Especially if they have a dense mint config.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 5371
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 12:07 pm

I love how I was ripped by several different posters...and your latest numbers prove exactly what I was saying.

Easy RSW

Harder JAX

Very Hard DTW EWR DFW

Their numbers reflect that
 
mjzair
Posts: 387
Joined: Tue Nov 30, 1999 12:10 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:38 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
I love how I was ripped by several different posters...and your latest numbers prove exactly what I was saying.

Easy RSW

Harder JAX

Very Hard DTW EWR DFW

Their numbers reflect that


Who ripped on you. The point is YOU said they are bleeding money in BOS. YOU still haven't backed up that claim.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 5371
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:50 pm

Look at the numbers!

How much more evidence do you want?

It isnt a claim...it is a HARD NUMBER reality

The new routes they added and will continue to add are tough routes for B6. The easy stuff is gone. They are and will continue to bleed money on these types of routes.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2902
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:54 pm

More Boston numbers.

CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS SeatPerFlight Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSPHL 280 AA 187551 157.42 156.98 282.31 99.65% 139.4 1896 70.95% 111.37 0.3978 129.31%
BOSPHL 280 B6 63926 131.11 131.11 0.00 100.00% 100.2 971 65.69% 86.13 0.3076 100.00%
BOSPHL 280 DL 22728 124.96 124.55 400.00 99.85% 73.4 549 56.43% 70.28 0.2510 81.60%
So the obvious change here is DL entrance. Interesting enough that AA has downgauged a little bit here vs last year. A lot more sub-150 seat aircraft. Which caused the gap between AA and B6 increase. Overall, the yields are dropping due to DL entrance. B6's yield dropped about 20% YoY. Since both B6/DL is adding capacity here going forward, can't see these numbers improving. Another absolute disaster of a market for DL Regional operation.

BOSPIT 496 B6 61977 130.15 130.15 0.00 100.00% 100.4 885 69.74% 90.77 0.1830 100.00%
BOSPIT 496 DL 24848 117.80 113.99 156.01 90.93% 74.5 550 60.63% 69.11 0.1393 76.14%
The yields are down about 5% for B6 YoY. More DL capacity here, which is causing their numbers to plummet even further. The gap between B6 and DL increased YoY.

BOSRDU 612 B6 68072 150.16 150.16 0.00 100.00% 100.3 863 78.68% 118.14 0.1930 100.00%
BOSRDU 612 DL 51069 177.94 175.75 338.34 98.65% 80.3 918 69.27% 121.75 0.1989 103.05%
The yields are down slightly for B6 YoY. Both B6 and DL had more flights. This seems to be an ever growing market. Basically pretty stable more market other that. Should be seeing more capacity here later in the year.

BOSRIC 474 B6 42839 134.86 134.86 0.00 100.00% 101.8 590 71.32% 96.18 0.2029 100.00%
BOSRIC 474 DL 15640 144.27 144.15 190.23 99.75% 72.6 430 50.10% 72.22 0.1524 75.08%
The yields are up slightly for B6 YoY. Huge drop in yield for DL here. They upgauged slightly to more 70 and 76 seaters. Another terrible market for DL Regional.

BOSTPA 1185 B6 106308 190.81 190.56 232.79 99.41% 149.0 855 83.46% 159.04 0.1342 100.00%
BOSTPA 1185 DL 55496 172.36 171.40 191.47 95.20% 157.7 424 82.98% 142.23 0.1200 89.43%
The yields are down over 5% for B6 YoY and the gap vs DL shrunk. Looks like B6 upgauged to almost all A320s from last year and added a daily flight. Up about 20 to 25% in capacity YoY, which probably accounts for the drop in yield.

BOSMSP 1124 B6 47316 104.50 104.50 0.00 100.00% 148.9 464 68.49% 71.57 0.0637 100.00%
BOSMSP 1124 DL 121630 169.74 165.01 274.13 95.66% 164.7 953 77.50% 127.88 0.1138 178.67%
This is definitely a tough market in Q1. Keep in mind DL's yield from a year ago on this route was around $230 and average fare was around $300. So almost cut in half for DL. I'd expect this market to improve outside of Q1.

So, that is the end of the major markets. I will post more transcon numbers later which should round out the remaining BOS markets. I think as a whole, most of the yields for B6 is stable out of BOS. They've added a couple of tough markets in ATL and MSP, which are definitely loss leaders. Those are big reasons why Boston has gotten a lot less profitable for them.

I would think they must add these routes regardless. A220 should make their performance look a lot less painful. And same with DFW/IAH going forward. The close-in business market that DL added have suffered in yield, but they are more or less still breaking even across the whole year. I don't think they are huge red marks.

I don't see them losing any pricing power out of Boston and I also don't see DL gaining much if any. So the power dynamics in Boston hasn't changed. If anything, they've grown to have more pricing power in Boston. The leisure markets are getting more capacity and upgauging and are making more money.

From this point onward, I don't see any remaining fortress hub types for them to add that will be anywhere as painful as ATL or MSP. They just need to add them methodically and offer good schedule. All the markets where they added with strong but no overwhelming legacy/WN presence like BNA, RDU, CLE, PIT and AUS are markets where they have significant pricing power. I don't see why things will be tough going into IND or CMH or MKE.
 
Planeboy17
Posts: 275
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:17 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Look at the numbers!

How much more evidence do you want?

It isnt a claim...it is a HARD NUMBER reality

The new routes they added and will continue to add are tough routes for B6. The easy stuff is gone. They are and will continue to bleed money on these types of routes.

I still don’t understand what your trying to say here.
Is B6 losing money overall? Not according to their 1st quarter numbers and their raised profit guidance.
Is B6 losing money at BOS? Not according to their last investor call. And the fact they want to grow the station.
Is B6 losing money on certain routes out of BOS? Yes, but you’ve only produced a few of those as examples. Certainly not on any majority of the over 40 routes they fly.
So again I don’t really understand what point your trying to raise.
Also, you stated, even capitalized, HARD NUMBER, yet you haven’t typed a single number in any of your replies.
 
B752OS
Posts: 1144
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 4:05 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 07, 2019 1:33 am

jfklganyc wrote:
Look at the numbers!

How much more evidence do you want?

It isnt a claim...it is a HARD NUMBER reality

The new routes they added and will continue to add are tough routes for B6. The easy stuff is gone. They are and will continue to bleed money on these types of routes.


So what should JetBlue do? Cut things and only make Boston a minor focus city?
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 5371
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 07, 2019 1:54 pm

B752OS wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Look at the numbers!

How much more evidence do you want?

It isnt a claim...it is a HARD NUMBER reality

The new routes they added and will continue to add are tough routes for B6. The easy stuff is gone. They are and will continue to bleed money on these types of routes.


So what should JetBlue do? Cut things and only make Boston a minor focus city?



No. Historically at B6, 50 percent of routes didnt make money.

They flew them as investments in the future.

Investment is subjective...BOS is worth the investment, LGB beyond a customs facility, was no longer worth an investment.

That is why management makes the big bucks and you and I speculate about it on a.net

What I want to steer away from here is the endless BOS expansion.

1. BOS was slated to grow to 150 flights. Their slow, methodical growth was so profitable, it was upped to 200 and publicly talked about during earnings calls

2. Enter Delta. What was supposed to be slow, methodical growth has become a mad rush to beat Delta at Press Releases touting BOS. This is not a good spot for a medium sized LCC with limited resources to be. Like AS in SEA, it is a losing proposition.

3.It isnt a matter of DL beating B6 in BOS...It’s a matter of Delta having an ongoing massive presence. They will. And B6 isnt going to do much about it. This depresses B6s yields. One key difference from AS and SEA: Delta has a formidable widebody international network from both cities...something that doesnt effect AS directly, but will effect B6 directly in 2 years.

4. Next steps in BOS are hard for B6. Lots of medium sized routes with legacy RJs. B6 will be entirely dependent on BOS Point of Sale as they do little marketing in new markets and do not have decades of service to the market that the competing legacy does. If DL matches them route for route...all the more trouble

5. Gates. Lots of talk of DL running out of room. BS. They have a huge terminal. If they start splitting some of those gates into A B C and running large RJ ops to these next B6 cities...they will give B6 a run for their money

6. Metrics. This is where I have long had a problem with B6. They are akin to that lazy, aloof friend that always manages to show up late no matter how important the event. You know that friend or family member you have. You either accept their incompetence at timeliness and start the party without them, you start inviting them 30 mins before everyone else, or you just stop inviting them. Delta, in turn, is that nerdy friend that always shows up 5 mins before the party begins...even if showing up 15 mins late is socially acceptable.

I have always held onto the fact that the two fundamentals of the airline business are safety and timeliness. B6, competing for the BOS business traveller will now face an issue with number 2

7. Downturns change everything. If There is a major downturn tomorrow, DL is retreating to JFK and B6 is riding out BOS. Everything is fluid in aviation, and this may be B6s best bet at a “fortress” hub in BOS
 
tphuang
Posts: 2902
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 07, 2019 5:02 pm

The allure of mini-fortress hub in BOS is great. They can get to 40% in domestic market share with the gate resources they have + a pretty robust international operation.

btw, the vaunted DL operation at BOS hasn't looked so great since they started their summer schedule in June. I've seen them below average vs BOS as a whole almost every time I checked whereas B6 has been above average.

I will post a couple of numbers to show what I think is general issue with B6 network planning out of BOS.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield
JFKPSP 2378 B6 23455 176.52 176.52 000.00 100.00% 176.9 176 75.33% 132.98
BOSPSP 2517 B6 4233 245.96 242.16 270.02 86.36% 155.6 50 54.39% 131.72
BOSHDN 1871 B6 5149 223.78 223.78 000.00 100.00% 153.0 50 67.29% 150.58
BOSBUR 2601 B6 13842 177.63 177.54 205.65 99.67% 153.6 161 55.99% 99.4
BOSLGB 2602 B6 31232 192.88 191.32 284.79 98.33% 151.9 261 78.78% 150.72

They add a bunch of long routes out of Boston to places with not enough demand for them and it just kills their margins in a slow quarter like Q1. And it hurts JFK-PSP numbers too. They added like 6 routes out of Boston from Sep to Feb (MEX, HAV, BUR, HDN, ROC, PSP) and none of them are to places that are actually under served. And there are under-served markets they can actually add and get the first mover advantage.

Anyways, more of the transcon disasters from Q1. I hate to even add commentary to these.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM
JFKPHX 2153 AA 109996 253.55 250.82 315.58 95.78% 161.0 758 90.14% 226.08 0.1050
JFKPHX 2153 B6 24118 203.70 203.33 255.11 99.27% 151.9 186 85.39% 173.62 0.0806
JFKPHX 2153 DL 57431 274.11 270.64 370.01 96.50% 178.8 387 82.98% 224.57 0.1043
JFKSMF 2521 B6 21273 194.26 193.54 241.04 98.47% 171.9 153 80.89% 156.54 0.0621
JFKSJC 2569 AS 21342 193.65 191.83 300.67 98.33% 163.2 178 73.46% 140.91 0.0548
JFKSJC 2569 B6 17667 182.45 182.13 241.97 99.47% 155.8 140 81.00% 147.53 0.0574
JFKSJC 2569 DL 17859 227.30 219.81 321.00 92.60% 160.6 156 71.27% 156.66 0.0610
JFKOAK 2576 B6 12109 189.08 187.51 257.27 97.74% 151.4 103 77.65% 145.59
JFKRNO 2411 B6 15666 211.68 209.54 268.38 96.36% 151.5 122 84.77% 177.63
JFKPDX 2454 AS 22850 190.88 186.83 242.80 92.77% 174.8 179 73.02% 136.43
JFKPDX 2454 B6 15466 182.73 182.73 0.00 100.00% 151.3 125 81.77% 149.41
JFKPDX 2454 DL 25879 266.69 255.64 335.62 86.18% 179.7 182 79.11% 202.25
JFKSLC 1990 B6 47719 250.15 249.99 267.48 99.11% 152.8 376 83.06% 207.65
JFKSLC 1990 DL 135598 393.22 391.62 459.15 97.63% 175.8 878 87.87% 344.11
BOSPHX 2300 AA 78493 304.74 305.67 297.79 88.20% 160.8 522 93.53% 285.89
BOSPHX 2300 B6 23545 224.54 224.20 283.83 99.43% 151.6 179 86.77% 194.54
BOSSJC 2689 B6 15342 228.99 227.82 293.15 98.22% 152.0 133 75.91% 172.95
BOSSLC 2105 B6 22169 223.69 221.72 308.94 97.74% 153.7 185 77.97% 172.87
BOSSLC 2105 DL 60815 333.33 329.94 405.79 95.53% 171.7 398 88.99% 293.62
FLLLAS 2173 B6 24556 220.65 219.97 341.04 99.43% 153.5 180 88.85% 195.44 0.0899
FLLLAS 2173 NK 30135 96.43 96.11 102.46 94.96% 182.3 180 91.86% 88.28 0.0406
FLLLAS 2173 WN 28161 235.18 232.51 254.19 87.68% 173.7 174 93.17% 216.62 0.0997
FLLLGB 2327 B6 1872 319.71 340.05 279.51 66.41% 150.0 14 89.14% 303.13 0.1303
FLLSAN 2269 B6 18345 214.52 214.14 303.93 99.58% 153.0 134 89.49% 191.63 0.0845
BUFLAX 2218 B6 14799 187.81 182.72 298.12 95.59% 151.8 120 81.23% 148.43 0.0669
MCOSLC 1931 B6 23907 185.50 185.01 278.22 99.47% 151.6 180 87.64% 162.13 0.0840
MCOSLC 1931 DL 86231 284.28 282.57 304.61 92.27% 201.6 461 92.77% 262.15 0.1358
FLLSLC 2084 B6 24556 227.37 225.85 277.79 97.08% 151.6 179 90.51% 204.42 0.0981
FLLSLC 2084 DL 30326 326.99 300.42 397.37 72.59% 178.7 183 92.74% 278.61 0.1337
FLLPHX 1972 B6 11860 183.42 182.61 884.00 99.88% 152.6 93 83.57% 152.61 0.0774
FLLPHX 1972 WN 28007 262.42 261.33 273.54 91.08% 169.5 186 88.84% 232.16 0.1177

The only recent ones that performed well were JFK/FLL-SLC. Everything was a gigantic wasteland.
 
User avatar
Dieuwer
Posts: 1269
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:37 am

Is less than 90% the definition of "wasteland"?
Perhaps B6 ought to consider Saturday only service (or 3x weekly) to some of these destinations.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3265
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:56 am

tphuang wrote:
The allure of mini-fortress hub in BOS is great. They can get to 40% in domestic market share with the gate resources they have + a pretty robust international operation.

btw, the vaunted DL operation at BOS hasn't looked so great since they started their summer schedule in June. I've seen them below average vs BOS as a whole almost every time I checked whereas B6 has been above average.

I will post a couple of numbers to show what I think is general issue with B6 network planning out of BOS.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield
JFKPSP 2378 B6 23455 176.52 176.52 000.00 100.00% 176.9 176 75.33% 132.98
BOSPSP 2517 B6 4233 245.96 242.16 270.02 86.36% 155.6 50 54.39% 131.72
BOSHDN 1871 B6 5149 223.78 223.78 000.00 100.00% 153.0 50 67.29% 150.58
BOSBUR 2601 B6 13842 177.63 177.54 205.65 99.67% 153.6 161 55.99% 99.4
BOSLGB 2602 B6 31232 192.88 191.32 284.79 98.33% 151.9 261 78.78% 150.72

They add a bunch of long routes out of Boston to places with not enough demand for them and it just kills their margins in a slow quarter like Q1. And it hurts JFK-PSP numbers too. They added like 6 routes out of Boston from Sep to Feb (MEX, HAV, BUR, HDN, ROC, PSP) and none of them are to places that are actually under served. And there are under-served markets they can actually add and get the first mover advantage.

Anyways, more of the transcon disasters from Q1. I hate to even add commentary to these.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM
JFKPHX 2153 AA 109996 253.55 250.82 315.58 95.78% 161.0 758 90.14% 226.08 0.1050
JFKPHX 2153 B6 24118 203.70 203.33 255.11 99.27% 151.9 186 85.39% 173.62 0.0806
JFKPHX 2153 DL 57431 274.11 270.64 370.01 96.50% 178.8 387 82.98% 224.57 0.1043
JFKSMF 2521 B6 21273 194.26 193.54 241.04 98.47% 171.9 153 80.89% 156.54 0.0621
JFKSJC 2569 AS 21342 193.65 191.83 300.67 98.33% 163.2 178 73.46% 140.91 0.0548
JFKSJC 2569 B6 17667 182.45 182.13 241.97 99.47% 155.8 140 81.00% 147.53 0.0574
JFKSJC 2569 DL 17859 227.30 219.81 321.00 92.60% 160.6 156 71.27% 156.66 0.0610
JFKOAK 2576 B6 12109 189.08 187.51 257.27 97.74% 151.4 103 77.65% 145.59
JFKRNO 2411 B6 15666 211.68 209.54 268.38 96.36% 151.5 122 84.77% 177.63
JFKPDX 2454 AS 22850 190.88 186.83 242.80 92.77% 174.8 179 73.02% 136.43
JFKPDX 2454 B6 15466 182.73 182.73 0.00 100.00% 151.3 125 81.77% 149.41
JFKPDX 2454 DL 25879 266.69 255.64 335.62 86.18% 179.7 182 79.11% 202.25
JFKSLC 1990 B6 47719 250.15 249.99 267.48 99.11% 152.8 376 83.06% 207.65
JFKSLC 1990 DL 135598 393.22 391.62 459.15 97.63% 175.8 878 87.87% 344.11
BOSPHX 2300 AA 78493 304.74 305.67 297.79 88.20% 160.8 522 93.53% 285.89
BOSPHX 2300 B6 23545 224.54 224.20 283.83 99.43% 151.6 179 86.77% 194.54
BOSSJC 2689 B6 15342 228.99 227.82 293.15 98.22% 152.0 133 75.91% 172.95
BOSSLC 2105 B6 22169 223.69 221.72 308.94 97.74% 153.7 185 77.97% 172.87
BOSSLC 2105 DL 60815 333.33 329.94 405.79 95.53% 171.7 398 88.99% 293.62
FLLLAS 2173 B6 24556 220.65 219.97 341.04 99.43% 153.5 180 88.85% 195.44 0.0899
FLLLAS 2173 NK 30135 96.43 96.11 102.46 94.96% 182.3 180 91.86% 88.28 0.0406
FLLLAS 2173 WN 28161 235.18 232.51 254.19 87.68% 173.7 174 93.17% 216.62 0.0997
FLLLGB 2327 B6 1872 319.71 340.05 279.51 66.41% 150.0 14 89.14% 303.13 0.1303
FLLSAN 2269 B6 18345 214.52 214.14 303.93 99.58% 153.0 134 89.49% 191.63 0.0845
BUFLAX 2218 B6 14799 187.81 182.72 298.12 95.59% 151.8 120 81.23% 148.43 0.0669
MCOSLC 1931 B6 23907 185.50 185.01 278.22 99.47% 151.6 180 87.64% 162.13 0.0840
MCOSLC 1931 DL 86231 284.28 282.57 304.61 92.27% 201.6 461 92.77% 262.15 0.1358
FLLSLC 2084 B6 24556 227.37 225.85 277.79 97.08% 151.6 179 90.51% 204.42 0.0981
FLLSLC 2084 DL 30326 326.99 300.42 397.37 72.59% 178.7 183 92.74% 278.61 0.1337
FLLPHX 1972 B6 11860 183.42 182.61 884.00 99.88% 152.6 93 83.57% 152.61 0.0774
FLLPHX 1972 WN 28007 262.42 261.33 273.54 91.08% 169.5 186 88.84% 232.16 0.1177

The only recent ones that performed well were JFK/FLL-SLC. Everything was a gigantic wasteland.


Thanks!

Agree on the BOS commentary. It appears that BOSPSP is not coming back next season (to no one’s surprise), which should help JFKPSP. Hopefully the retimed BOSBUR schedule also helps those miserable yields.

Q1 is rough for transcon as you note. In addition to JFK/FLL-SLC, FLLSAN, BOSPHX, and FLLLAS look pretty good too. And JFKRNO, BOSSLC and BOSSJC aren’t that terrible.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2902
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:22 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Is less than 90% the definition of "wasteland"?
Perhaps B6 ought to consider Saturday only service (or 3x weekly) to some of these destinations.

It's all about the yields. Being 90% filled means nothing if they all buy cheap seats.

As an example, HPN-PBI is one of their most profitable routes. And in Q1, the yield for that route was $212, which is higher than all of these much longer distance transcon routes. Now, it is flying E90 40% of time and have no red-eyes, but that's still higher yield than routes that are sometimes 150% longer.

Anyways, LGB results.

CityPair Dist CarrierBoard AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
LGBSFO 354 B6 40238 104.48 104.48 000.00 100.00% 151.5 346 76.75% 080.19 0.2265 100.00%
LGBOAK 353 B6 42113 107.27 107.27 000.00 100.00% 151.6 371 74.89% 080.33 0.2276 100.00%
LGBOAK 353 WN 78403 099.77 099.73 137.33 99.90% 151.9 667 77.37% 077.16 0.2186 96.05%
LGBSJC 324 B6 29218 111.04 111.04 000.00 100.00% 151.5 356 54.16% 060.14 0.1856 100.00%

First for the Bay area stuff. Again, they are down to basically 2 flights a day for these markets. The yields all dropped after a successful Q4. I checked LAX-SFO, there were no similar drops. My guess is because those markets capture business crowd whereas B6 depends on leisure to make this work and Q1 is short on that. The numbers are still up for last year. So will need to see again in Q2 to see if we get the improved results from Q3/4.

LGBSMF 387 B6 32865 097.80 097.80 000.00 100.00% 151.6 360 60.24% 058.91 0.1522 100.00%
LGBSMF 387 WN 76098 096.62 096.36 193.01 99.74% 148.9 718 71.17% 068.58 0.1772 116.41%
Probably the poorest performing market for them out of LGB this past quarter.

LGBLAS 231 B6 71558 089.21 089.21 000.00 100.00% 151.6 542 87.11% 077.71 0.3364 100.00%
LGBLAS 231 WN 60197 076.28 076.28 000.00 100.00% 143.4 534 78.63% 059.98 0.2596 77.18%
This also all dropped from last quarter, although just minimally in the red.

LGBSEA 965 B6 25262 132.85 132.85 000.00 100.00% 151.2 216 77.32% 102.73 0.1065 100.00%
LGBPDX 846 B6 24085 131.31 131.31 000.00 100.00% 151.6 180 88.29% 115.93 0.1370 100.00%
These are not terrible numbers, but down from Q3/4. Especially SEA.

LGBSLC 588 B6 58950 136.92 136.92 000.00 100.00% 151.6 439 88.58% 121.29 0.2063 100.00%
LGBSLC 588 CP 22752 156.59 156.59 000.00 100.00% 076.0 327 91.57% 143.39 0.2439 118.22%
LGBSLC 588 OO 27495 157.81 157.81 156.67 99.85% 076.7 389 92.17% 145.45 0.2474 119.92%
One of the few markets where their yield went up from Q4 and a year earlier. This level of fares is quite profitable actually.

LGBRNO 402 B6 21781 121.68 121.68 000.00 100.00% 151.6 180 79.84% 097.15 0.2417 100.00%
Roughly flat vs Q4. Another market that has become profitable since last year's cuts.

LGBAUS 1226 B6 23276 150.82 150.82 000.00 100.00% 151.6 180 85.32% 128.68 0.1050 100.00%
This is down from last year. Not a great quarter.

LGBJFK 2465 B6 40908 190.60 188.55 269.67 97.48% 151.7 326 82.73% 155.99 0.0633 100.00%
LGBBOS 2602 B6 31232 192.88 191.32 284.79 98.33% 151.9 261 78.78% 150.72 0.0579 100.00%
As mentioned earlier, very poor transcon performance

LGBBZN 904 B6 6079 128.89 128.89 000.00 100.00% 151.5 52 77.14% 099.43 0.1100 100.00%
LGBHDN 758 B6 3421 111.68 111.68 000.00 100.00% 151.5 52 43.41% 048.48 0.0640 100.00%
Neither of this is good. Terrible LF on LGB-HDN. Not surprised these routes are getting cut.

As a whole, weaker quarter than Q4. I would be interested in seeing how well they do in Q2, since they typically do the worst in Q1.
 
User avatar
Dieuwer
Posts: 1269
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:27 pm

tphuang wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Is less than 90% the definition of "wasteland"?
Perhaps B6 ought to consider Saturday only service (or 3x weekly) to some of these destinations.

It's all about the yields. Being 90% filled means nothing if they all buy cheap seats.

As an example, HPN-PBI is one of their most profitable routes. And in Q1, the yield for that route was $212, which is higher than all of these much longer distance transcon routes. Now, it is flying E90 40% of time and have no red-eyes, but that's still higher yield than routes that are sometimes 150% longer.


So what do you consider a good yield (or PRASM number)?

Edit to add: Also wondering if BOS-MEX is going to stay or not. Haven't seen the numbers yet?
 
tphuang
Posts: 2902
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 09, 2019 12:51 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Is less than 90% the definition of "wasteland"?
Perhaps B6 ought to consider Saturday only service (or 3x weekly) to some of these destinations.

It's all about the yields. Being 90% filled means nothing if they all buy cheap seats.

As an example, HPN-PBI is one of their most profitable routes. And in Q1, the yield for that route was $212, which is higher than all of these much longer distance transcon routes. Now, it is flying E90 40% of time and have no red-eyes, but that's still higher yield than routes that are sometimes 150% longer.


So what do you consider a good yield (or PRASM number)?

Edit to add: Also wondering if BOS-MEX is going to stay or not. Haven't seen the numbers yet?


it's hard to say. Airlines have stage length adjusted CASM/RASM, which I don't have. So I generally use a baseline revenue for a 0 mile flight + multiple of miles. So for example, an system average yield for a 0 mile flight out of BOS maybe $80, but 500 mile will be $80 + 6 cent * 500 and 1000 mile will be $80 + 6 cent * 1000. something like that.

For transcon on JetBlue, I think on A320s that does red-eye on westbound, you'd probably want something close to $200 at least. For A321, probably at least $170. For l would think at least 20 to 25% higher than that.

As for BOS-MEX, the LF only goes until December. Not very good so far, but since AM is dropping out, I fully expect them to keep operating it. I expect the numbers to look a lot better for spring/summer when they are the only operator
 
Blueknows
Posts: 247
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 3:07 pm

Lgb pocket session July 17th. This should
Be good.
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 423
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 3:56 pm

Blueknows wrote:
Lgb pocket session July 17th. This should
Be good.


It should be boring you mean.
 
CaptCoolHand
Posts: 34
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:24 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:51 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
Blueknows wrote:
Lgb pocket session July 17th. This should
Be good.


It should be boring you mean.


Right! I'm sure it'll be just as informative as JG's big speech a few months back.

Another infomercial. All flare, zero substance. But, please make sure to wear your respectful workplace pants. They're like IROP pants, but with rainbows.
 
Bluewho
Posts: 63
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 12:58 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:11 pm

Blueknows wrote:
Lgb pocket session July 17th. This should
Be good.



Unless they are giving us our PS back and actually valuing the employees I don’t care.
Btw her Steve Jobs wannabe all hands meeting was just the old state of the airline that Barger would do and was way better at. It won’t be anything.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2902
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:53 pm

FLL numbers from Q1
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
FLLALB 1204 B6 022430 188.21 188.21 000.00 100.00% 151.5 176 84.10% 158.29 0.1315 100.00%
FLLALB 1204 WN 025715 200.17 198.24 224.68 92.72% 164.0 180 87.12% 172.71 0.1435 109.11%
Compared to year ago, their yield is up and gap with WN closed here. But this was a route that they had exceeded WN in yield in Q3/4, so this is a bit disappointing result. Going forward, they should have monopoly here for most of the summer and fall season. WN seem to be Sat-Only for winter. They should consider moving to A321 if one is available or maybe add a second flight in winter time.

FLLAUS 1105 B6 021611 162.66 162.66 000.00 100.00% 146.6 178 82.83% 134.74 0.1219 100.00%
FLLAUS 1105 NK 011498 068.91 067.74 099.82 96.34% 147.0 92 85.01% 057.59 0.0521 42.74%
FLLAUS 1105 WN 031164 198.70 195.65 223.93 89.21% 150.2 235 88.28% 172.72 0.1563 128.19%
Their yield is up over a year ago, but gap with WN widened. It looks like NK arrival on this route may be hurting B6. At the same time, WN has cut back its capacity by 1/3 to 1/4 over the past year. Since WN went down to mostly 1 filght a day, the gap between B6 and WN is similar.

FLLBUF 1166 B6 022185 188.47 185.16 228.42 92.34% 152.1 173 84.32% 156.12 0.1339 100.00%
FLLBUF 1166 WN 044391 177.77 175.05 197.68 87.96% 151.7 351 83.39% 145.97 0.1252 93.50%
Their yield is up over a year ago and getting a slightly larger gap against WN. Relatively to WN, the best quarter they've had. Going forward, another route they have monopoly for most of summer and fall season. Maybe they can take advantage of that here. I think this is a route they can add a second flight.

FLLCHS 0470 B6 015438 149.25 148.70 309.99 99.66% 100.3 181 85.06% 126.48 0.2691
Their yield here is up 20% YoY. Their highest yield here I've seen. This had long been a route that's an under performer so good to see it turning around a little bit. Seeing that they cut DCA-CHS, maybe they can start MCO here.

FLLCLE 1062 B6 022639 153.20 152.63 385.62 99.76% 153.3 174 84.89% 129.56 0.1220 100.00%
FLLCLE 1062 NK 030808 081.67 080.84 092.80 93.09% 178.1 190 91.04% 073.60 0.0693 56.81%
FLLCLE 1062 UA 025956 180.99 178.78 207.06 92.18% 162.7 179 89.12% 159.34 0.1500 122.98%
Their yield here is a up close to 10% YoY. Their gap with UA shrunk, but UA also increased capacity here. More importantly against NK, their gap decreased slightly. NK is adding capacity here for next winter and I believe F9 is also entering this route. The current yield level is quite profitable for B6, but they risk losing out to NK if they remain stagnant here. I would think this is an obvious A220 route down the road if they want to add a second flight.

FLLBDL 1173 B6 043607 190.00 189.69 232.57 99.26% 151.6 354 81.25% 154.13 0.1314 100.00%
FLLBDL 1173 NK 042901 072.38 072.20 088.39 98.89% 148.2 341 84.89% 061.30 0.0523 39.77%
FLLBDL 1173 WN 026362 169.83 164.10 204.70 85.87% 154.5 198 86.19% 141.44 0.1206 91.76%
Their yield is up close to 10% YoY. The yield gap with WN has widened v Q1 last year, but shrunk a little bit vs Q3/Q4. Seems like NK downgauged here to A319. Either way, strong market for them where WN will be staying out for summer/fall. I think this is one where they should add another flight for next winter or put in a A321 to compete better on cost vs NK.

FLLJAX 0319 B6 039510 116.64 116.64 000.00 100.00% 101.5 529 73.62% 085.87 0.2692 100.00%
FLLJAX 0319 NK 007000 035.71 035.71 000.00 100.00% 152.2 92 49.98% 017.85 0.0560 20.79%
FLLJAX 0319 WN 037586 104.55 104.35 216.68 99.82% 149.2 508 49.58% 051.73 0.1622 60.25%
Their yield here is down 25% YoY due to entrance of both NK/WN. WN has already cut down to 2 flights. And based on their terrible performance here, I think they are gone in another year.

FLLLAS 2173 B6 024556 220.65 219.97 341.04 99.43% 153.5 180 88.85% 195.44 0.0899 100.00%
FLLLAS 2173 NK 030135 095.62 095.32 101.28 94.94% 182.3 180 91.86% 087.56 0.0403 44.80%
FLLLAS 2173 WN 028161 235.18 232.51 254.19 87.68% 173.7 174 93.17% 216.62 0.0997 110.84%
Their yield here was up 15% YoY and gap with WN shrunk slightly. Pretty steady route in the past few quarters. B6 needs to watch out for NK here who has been gaining market share. WN has at times reduced this route to 5x weekly.

More to come later.
 
Planeboy17
Posts: 275
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:53 pm

tphuang wrote:
FLL numbers from Q1
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
FLLALB 1204 B6 022430 188.21 188.21 000.00 100.00% 151.5 176 84.10% 158.29 0.1315 100.00%
FLLALB 1204 WN 025715 200.17 198.24 224.68 92.72% 164.0 180 87.12% 172.71 0.1435 109.11%
Compared to year ago, their yield is up and gap with WN closed here. But this was a route that they had exceeded WN in yield in Q3/4, so this is a bit disappointing result. Going forward, they should have monopoly here for most of the summer and fall season. WN seem to be Sat-Only for winter. They should consider moving to A321 if one is available or maybe add a second flight in winter time.

FLLAUS 1105 B6 021611 162.66 162.66 000.00 100.00% 146.6 178 82.83% 134.74 0.1219 100.00%
FLLAUS 1105 NK 011498 068.91 067.74 099.82 96.34% 147.0 92 85.01% 057.59 0.0521 42.74%
FLLAUS 1105 WN 031164 198.70 195.65 223.93 89.21% 150.2 235 88.28% 172.72 0.1563 128.19%
Their yield is up over a year ago, but gap with WN widened. It looks like NK arrival on this route may be hurting B6. At the same time, WN has cut back its capacity by 1/3 to 1/4 over the past year. Since WN went down to mostly 1 filght a day, the gap between B6 and WN is similar.

FLLBUF 1166 B6 022185 188.47 185.16 228.42 92.34% 152.1 173 84.32% 156.12 0.1339 100.00%
FLLBUF 1166 WN 044391 177.77 175.05 197.68 87.96% 151.7 351 83.39% 145.97 0.1252 93.50%
Their yield is up over a year ago and getting a slightly larger gap against WN. Relatively to WN, the best quarter they've had. Going forward, another route they have monopoly for most of summer and fall season. Maybe they can take advantage of that here. I think this is a route they can add a second flight.

FLLCHS 0470 B6 015438 149.25 148.70 309.99 99.66% 100.3 181 85.06% 126.48 0.2691
Their yield here is up 20% YoY. Their highest yield here I've seen. This had long been a route that's an under performer so good to see it turning around a little bit. Seeing that they cut DCA-CHS, maybe they can start MCO here.

FLLCLE 1062 B6 022639 153.20 152.63 385.62 99.76% 153.3 174 84.89% 129.56 0.1220 100.00%
FLLCLE 1062 NK 030808 081.67 080.84 092.80 93.09% 178.1 190 91.04% 073.60 0.0693 56.81%
FLLCLE 1062 UA 025956 180.99 178.78 207.06 92.18% 162.7 179 89.12% 159.34 0.1500 122.98%
Their yield here is a up close to 10% YoY. Their gap with UA shrunk, but UA also increased capacity here. More importantly against NK, their gap decreased slightly. NK is adding capacity here for next winter and I believe F9 is also entering this route. The current yield level is quite profitable for B6, but they risk losing out to NK if they remain stagnant here. I would think this is an obvious A220 route down the road if they want to add a second flight.

FLLBDL 1173 B6 043607 190.00 189.69 232.57 99.26% 151.6 354 81.25% 154.13 0.1314 100.00%
FLLBDL 1173 NK 042901 072.38 072.20 088.39 98.89% 148.2 341 84.89% 061.30 0.0523 39.77%
FLLBDL 1173 WN 026362 169.83 164.10 204.70 85.87% 154.5 198 86.19% 141.44 0.1206 91.76%
Their yield is up close to 10% YoY. The yield gap with WN has widened v Q1 last year, but shrunk a little bit vs Q3/Q4. Seems like NK downgauged here to A319. Either way, strong market for them where WN will be staying out for summer/fall. I think this is one where they should add another flight for next winter or put in a A321 to compete better on cost vs NK.

FLLJAX 0319 B6 039510 116.64 116.64 000.00 100.00% 101.5 529 73.62% 085.87 0.2692 100.00%
FLLJAX 0319 NK 007000 035.71 035.71 000.00 100.00% 152.2 92 49.98% 017.85 0.0560 20.79%
FLLJAX 0319 WN 037586 104.55 104.35 216.68 99.82% 149.2 508 49.58% 051.73 0.1622 60.25%
Their yield here is down 25% YoY due to entrance of both NK/WN. WN has already cut down to 2 flights. And based on their terrible performance here, I think they are gone in another year.

FLLLAS 2173 B6 024556 220.65 219.97 341.04 99.43% 153.5 180 88.85% 195.44 0.0899 100.00%
FLLLAS 2173 NK 030135 095.62 095.32 101.28 94.94% 182.3 180 91.86% 087.56 0.0403 44.80%
FLLLAS 2173 WN 028161 235.18 232.51 254.19 87.68% 173.7 174 93.17% 216.62 0.0997 110.84%
Their yield here was up 15% YoY and gap with WN shrunk slightly. Pretty steady route in the past few quarters. B6 needs to watch out for NK here who has been gaining market share. WN has at times reduced this route to 5x weekly.

More to come later.

tphuang, I just want to say how much I appreciate your posts on this and other threads. The information that you not only gather and post but also disseminate is incredible.
You and enilhilra are 2 people who really make airliners.net so special and interesting.
Thank you.
 
Blueknows
Posts: 247
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:59 am

Well we know LGB-BZN is not coming back next year. Not Confirmed yet but heard they might axe LGB-SMF/OAK possible SJC. They would move flights to add more LGB-SFO. Guess we will see next week
 
TheLunchbox
Posts: 43
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:31 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:37 pm

Blueknows wrote:
Well we know LGB-BZN is not coming back next year. Not Confirmed yet but heard they might axe LGB-SMF/OAK possible SJC. They would move flights to add more LGB-SFO. Guess we will see next week


if you knew about jetBlue then you’d know these pocket sessions are just informational meet and greets with leadership. Why do you keep trying to make everything more than what it is? I feel like you’re just trolling.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2902
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:49 pm

Thanks Planeboy17. enilria knows a lot more than me. I'm just a data guy.

Blueknows, I could see LGB-SJC getting cut, but OAK does well enough that I think it will stick around.

June numbers are out http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=62183

The most important part here is the 3.1% RASM increase. Honestly in light of AA/WN MAX cuts and what we saw in DL's numbers, that's not great. If you combined Q1/Q2, there is very little RASM growth YoY. I suppose this is a byproduct of the longer stage length and A320 cabin densification program. But given the high completion rate, I'm hoping we will see lower CASM-ex numbers. Otherwise, could be another disappointing quarter.
 
shadez
Posts: 136
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:33 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:56 pm

Planeboy17 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
FLL numbers from Q1
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
FLLALB 1204 B6 022430 188.21 188.21 000.00 100.00% 151.5 176 84.10% 158.29 0.1315 100.00%
FLLALB 1204 WN 025715 200.17 198.24 224.68 92.72% 164.0 180 87.12% 172.71 0.1435 109.11%
Compared to year ago, their yield is up and gap with WN closed here. But this was a route that they had exceeded WN in yield in Q3/4, so this is a bit disappointing result. Going forward, they should have monopoly here for most of the summer and fall season. WN seem to be Sat-Only for winter. They should consider moving to A321 if one is available or maybe add a second flight in winter time.

FLLAUS 1105 B6 021611 162.66 162.66 000.00 100.00% 146.6 178 82.83% 134.74 0.1219 100.00%
FLLAUS 1105 NK 011498 068.91 067.74 099.82 96.34% 147.0 92 85.01% 057.59 0.0521 42.74%
FLLAUS 1105 WN 031164 198.70 195.65 223.93 89.21% 150.2 235 88.28% 172.72 0.1563 128.19%
Their yield is up over a year ago, but gap with WN widened. It looks like NK arrival on this route may be hurting B6. At the same time, WN has cut back its capacity by 1/3 to 1/4 over the past year. Since WN went down to mostly 1 filght a day, the gap between B6 and WN is similar.

FLLBUF 1166 B6 022185 188.47 185.16 228.42 92.34% 152.1 173 84.32% 156.12 0.1339 100.00%
FLLBUF 1166 WN 044391 177.77 175.05 197.68 87.96% 151.7 351 83.39% 145.97 0.1252 93.50%
Their yield is up over a year ago and getting a slightly larger gap against WN. Relatively to WN, the best quarter they've had. Going forward, another route they have monopoly for most of summer and fall season. Maybe they can take advantage of that here. I think this is a route they can add a second flight.

FLLCHS 0470 B6 015438 149.25 148.70 309.99 99.66% 100.3 181 85.06% 126.48 0.2691
Their yield here is up 20% YoY. Their highest yield here I've seen. This had long been a route that's an under performer so good to see it turning around a little bit. Seeing that they cut DCA-CHS, maybe they can start MCO here.

FLLCLE 1062 B6 022639 153.20 152.63 385.62 99.76% 153.3 174 84.89% 129.56 0.1220 100.00%
FLLCLE 1062 NK 030808 081.67 080.84 092.80 93.09% 178.1 190 91.04% 073.60 0.0693 56.81%
FLLCLE 1062 UA 025956 180.99 178.78 207.06 92.18% 162.7 179 89.12% 159.34 0.1500 122.98%
Their yield here is a up close to 10% YoY. Their gap with UA shrunk, but UA also increased capacity here. More importantly against NK, their gap decreased slightly. NK is adding capacity here for next winter and I believe F9 is also entering this route. The current yield level is quite profitable for B6, but they risk losing out to NK if they remain stagnant here. I would think this is an obvious A220 route down the road if they want to add a second flight.

FLLBDL 1173 B6 043607 190.00 189.69 232.57 99.26% 151.6 354 81.25% 154.13 0.1314 100.00%
FLLBDL 1173 NK 042901 072.38 072.20 088.39 98.89% 148.2 341 84.89% 061.30 0.0523 39.77%
FLLBDL 1173 WN 026362 169.83 164.10 204.70 85.87% 154.5 198 86.19% 141.44 0.1206 91.76%
Their yield is up close to 10% YoY. The yield gap with WN has widened v Q1 last year, but shrunk a little bit vs Q3/Q4. Seems like NK downgauged here to A319. Either way, strong market for them where WN will be staying out for summer/fall. I think this is one where they should add another flight for next winter or put in a A321 to compete better on cost vs NK.

FLLJAX 0319 B6 039510 116.64 116.64 000.00 100.00% 101.5 529 73.62% 085.87 0.2692 100.00%
FLLJAX 0319 NK 007000 035.71 035.71 000.00 100.00% 152.2 92 49.98% 017.85 0.0560 20.79%
FLLJAX 0319 WN 037586 104.55 104.35 216.68 99.82% 149.2 508 49.58% 051.73 0.1622 60.25%
Their yield here is down 25% YoY due to entrance of both NK/WN. WN has already cut down to 2 flights. And based on their terrible performance here, I think they are gone in another year.

FLLLAS 2173 B6 024556 220.65 219.97 341.04 99.43% 153.5 180 88.85% 195.44 0.0899 100.00%
FLLLAS 2173 NK 030135 095.62 095.32 101.28 94.94% 182.3 180 91.86% 087.56 0.0403 44.80%
FLLLAS 2173 WN 028161 235.18 232.51 254.19 87.68% 173.7 174 93.17% 216.62 0.0997 110.84%
Their yield here was up 15% YoY and gap with WN shrunk slightly. Pretty steady route in the past few quarters. B6 needs to watch out for NK here who has been gaining market share. WN has at times reduced this route to 5x weekly.

More to come later.

tphuang, I just want to say how much I appreciate your posts on this and other threads. The information that you not only gather and post but also disseminate is incredible.
You and enilhilra are 2 people who really make airliners.net so special and interesting.
Thank you.


Yes, as always, this is great stuff. Can you share a link to where you get the data from? Wouldn't mind perusing it myself!
 
EK77WNH
Posts: 139
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:42 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:51 pm

On balance, has Cuba been a success or a failure?
(Formerly ChrisNH)
 
tphuang
Posts: 2902
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:48 pm

EK77WNH wrote:
On balance, has Cuba been a success or a failure?

from making money point of view, giant failure. I don't know what other criteria JetBlue management has for Cuba.

shadez wrote:
Yes, as always, this is great stuff. Can you share a link to where you get the data from? Wouldn't mind perusing it myself!


so i get the fare data here. It's only 10% of fare data and you have to filter out award tickets itineraries and such. They also contain non-stop and other itineraries, so you need to filter out one-stop fares based on the marketing distance.
https://www.transtats.bts.gov/DatabaseI ... ?DB_ID=125

T-100 LF data here, keep in mind they post each direction and aircraft type individually, so you have to account for that
https://www.transtats.bts.gov/Fields.asp?Table_ID=259
Also for JetBlue at least, a lot of times their seat count is garbage, so you have to correct that. For example, they'd least 180 seats for A320s, which we know is a lie, so I adjust it to something between 150 and 162.
There is also a link that provides descript for aircraft types, which allows me to comment on how many A321/A320/E90 they operate on each route.

More FLL data
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
FLLBNA 0793 B6 022031 143.05 143.05 000.00 100.00% 152.8 179 80.56% 115.24 0.1453 100.00%
FLLBNA 0793 WN 092115 185.13 184.74 193.64 95.64% 146.5 686 91.63% 169.28 0.2135 146.89%
Their yield is up 25% YoY but gap has remained same with WN YoY. Compared to Q3/4, the gap in yield vs WN increased.

FLLMSY 0674 B6 015401 155.48 155.48 000.00 100.00% 100.6 180 85.04% 132.22 0.1962 100.00%
FLLMSY 0674 NK 050737 049.90 048.86 075.22 96.03% 166.4 360 84.68% 041.37 0.0614 31.29%
FLLMSY 0674 WN 044533 156.62 152.72 192.88 90.28% 145.5 382 80.12% 122.35 0.1815 92.53%
Here is an example where moving from A320 to E90 saved this route. A great candidate for A220. The yield here is up 50% YoY when NK/WN yield was basically flat. The only change is their switch from A320 to E90. Increased cost, but huge increase in yield to more than make up for it. This is now at least a break-even route for them when previously it was a huge red-ink.

FLLPHL 0992 AA 096311 194.26 192.84 225.05 95.59% 157.5 650 94.08% 181.42 0.1829 142.90%
FLLPHL 0992 B6 043035 148.24 147.37 360.46 99.59% 151.8 329 86.15% 126.95 0.1280 100.00%
FLLPHL 0992 NK 059325 058.82 058.45 085.78 98.64% 194.7 337 90.42% 052.85 0.0533 41.63%
FLLPHL 0992 WN 044378 142.68 141.75 152.26 91.17% 157.0 308 91.76% 130.07 0.1311 102.45%
Their yield is up 15% YoY, but everyone else went up too. Pretty stable route. Another one where WN is exiting for summer/fall season, which I would imagine is a good thing for B6.

FLLPVD 1188 B6 022893 198.28 198.00 285.07 99.68% 151.6 178 84.85% 168.01 0.1414 100.00%
FLLPVD 1188 WN 048496 188.07 184.68 227.84 92.14% 156.2 368 84.36% 155.79 0.1311 92.73%
Yield up close to 15% YoY and gap with WN has been around this mark from Q1 to Q3 of last year. Considering that WN is cutting back on this route in summer/fall and only coming back 1x seems like for winter, B6 should consider going 2x daily here.

FLLRDU 0680 B6 031380 166.27 166.27 000.00 100.00% 100.3 362 86.45% 143.73 0.2114 100.00%
FLLRDU 0680 DL 016264 178.79 171.41 213.97 82.65% 110.0 172 85.98% 147.39 0.2167 102.54%
FLLRDU 0680 G7 000606 194.65 185.88 306.49 92.73% 72.4 10 83.70% 155.59 0.2288 108.25%
FLLRDU 0680 WN 025694 147.12 141.51 166.87 77.89% 148.9 194 88.93% 125.84 0.1851 87.55%
Another route they do pretty well in, seeing that they have roughly the same yield as DL mainline. This is the largest gap they've had with WN in the quarters I've tracked. So pretty good results and one that should get early switch to A220.
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 2998
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:49 pm

Nice to see PVD FLL on B6 outperforming it’s peers at BDL BUF and ALB, that on top of them launching PBI, hopefully they can finally pull the trigger on 2x
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
tphuang
Posts: 2902
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:40 pm

RL757PVD wrote:
Nice to see PVD FLL on B6 outperforming it’s peers at BDL BUF and ALB, that on top of them launching PBI, hopefully they can finally pull the trigger on 2x

not only that, PVD-PBI had a pretty good run also. To me, the next obvious routes they can add out of PVD are RSW and TPA.

CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield
PVDFLL 1188 B6 22893 198.28 198.00 285.07 99.68% 151.6 178 84.85% 168.01
PVDMCO 1072 B6 43844 174.71 174.71 000.00 100.00% 152.1 348 82.83% 144.72
PVDPBI 1148 B6 11638 198.75 198.75 000.00 100.00% 152.9 92 82.71% 164.4
BDLPBI 1133 B6 34615 204.31 204.31 207.87 99.84% 169.6 248 82.32% 168.18
BDLFLL 1173 B6 43607 190.00 189.69 232.57 99.26% 151.6 354 81.25% 154.13
BDLMCO 1050 B6 55509 174.24 174.00 192.74 98.72% 151.0 442 83.17% 144.72
BDLTPA 1111 B6 23282 176.68 176.56 195.44 99.35% 151.5 175 87.79% 155.00
BDLRSW 1180 B6 23565 220.97 220.82 250.52 99.50% 151.6 176 88.34% 195.08

To me, PVD's yields are all more or less competitive with what we see out of BDL. Given how strong they are on BDL/HPN-RSW, seems to me that there is a market for PVD-RSW.
 
RL757PVD
Posts: 2998
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 1999 2:47 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:49 pm

For a new route that’s never been flown nonstop outside of a few spring weeks by WN, that is an impressive start for PVD PBI
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
User avatar
SANFan
Posts: 4991
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:06 pm

Got a question for Blue schedule experts here.

Last Sunday, Enilria's OAG thread showed B6 increasing SAN-JFK from 2 to 3 flights in Sept and Oct. Here's the listing straight from the thread:
B6 JFK-SAN SEP 2>3[2] OCT 2>3[2]

As far as I could find, that is not reflected on B6's skeds -- they still show 2 daily r/t. (I did not question this on the OAG thread.)

Does anyone know what's actually happening with Blue in the fall between SAN and JFK? If a 3rd nonstop is being added, would it be another Mint flight?

bb
 
tphuang
Posts: 2902
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:32 pm

SANFan wrote:
Got a question for Blue schedule experts here.

Last Sunday, Enilria's OAG thread showed B6 increasing SAN-JFK from 2 to 3 flights in Sept and Oct. Here's the listing straight from the thread:
B6 JFK-SAN SEP 2>3[2] OCT 2>3[2]

As far as I could find, that is not reflected on B6's skeds -- they still show 2 daily r/t. (I did not question this on the OAG thread.)

Does anyone know what's actually happening with Blue in the fall between SAN and JFK? If a 3rd nonstop is being added, would it be another Mint flight?

bb

I believe they added a 3rd flight just for those 2 month. I see it showing up as a regular A320 flight on their website. I assume this is done to fill in AA's absence.
 
stapleton
Posts: 201
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2006 9:57 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:20 am

Blueknows wrote:
Well we know LGB-BZN is not coming back next year. Not Confirmed yet but heard they might axe LGB-SMF/OAK possible SJC. They would move flights to add more LGB-SFO. Guess we will see next week

Actually BZN - LGB comes back with the February schedule change. The JetBlue vacation portion of the website publishes the schedule three days earlier than the main booking site and BZN is back with twice a week service.
 
User avatar
Dieuwer
Posts: 1269
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:22 am

Poor JetBlue. I just lowered their yield on BOS-DCA by buying a $50 ticket :D
 
UkiAir
Posts: 37
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2010 1:59 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:12 am

SANFan wrote:
Got a question for Blue schedule experts here.

Last Sunday, Enilria's OAG thread showed B6 increasing SAN-JFK from 2 to 3 flights in Sept and Oct. Here's the listing straight from the thread:
B6 JFK-SAN SEP 2>3[2] OCT 2>3[2]

As far as I could find, that is not reflected on B6's skeds -- they still show 2 daily r/t. (I did not question this on the OAG thread.)

Does anyone know what's actually happening with Blue in the fall between SAN and JFK? If a 3rd nonstop is being added, would it be another Mint flight?

bb

BOS SAN went to 3 a day, all Mint over summer, and after it it goes down to 2 Mint and 1 320.
JFK stays at 2 Mint daily.
 
User avatar
SANFan
Posts: 4991
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:52 am

tphuang wrote:
SANFan wrote:
Got a question for Blue schedule experts here.

Last Sunday, Enilria's OAG thread showed B6 increasing SAN-JFK from 2 to 3 flights in Sept and Oct. Here's the listing straight from the thread:
B6 JFK-SAN SEP 2>3[2] OCT 2>3[2]

As far as I could find, that is not reflected on B6's skeds -- they still show 2 daily r/t. (I did not question this on the OAG thread.)

Does anyone know what's actually happening with Blue in the fall between SAN and JFK? If a 3rd nonstop is being added, would it be another Mint flight?

bb

I believe they added a 3rd flight just for those 2 month. I see it showing up as a regular A320 flight on their website. I assume this is done to fill in AA's absence.

UkiAir wrote:
JFK stays at 2 Mint daily.


Hmmm.... Thanks for the answers guys. Now all I have to do is decide which one is correct... or just wait and see what the B6 SAN-JFK skeds look like in September!

bb
 
tphuang
Posts: 2902
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:32 pm

SANFan wrote:
Hmmm.... Thanks for the answers guys. Now all I have to do is decide which one is correct... or just wait and see what the B6 SAN-JFK skeds look like in September!

bb


https://www.google.com/flights#flt=JFK. ... 1;t:f;tt:o
They've definitely added a third (non-mint A320) flight here during an off peak month.
I think they are assuming that AA will continue to cut JFK-SAN when MAX shutdown continues.
I'm just not sure if this will continue forward, since I don't expect MAX to be back until next year.
 
Blueknows
Posts: 247
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:46 pm

stapleton wrote:
Blueknows wrote:
Well we know LGB-BZN is not coming back next year. Not Confirmed yet but heard they might axe LGB-SMF/OAK possible SJC. They would move flights to add more LGB-SFO. Guess we will see next week

Actually BZN - LGB comes back with the February schedule change. The JetBlue vacation portion of the website publishes the schedule three days earlier than the main booking site and BZN is back with twice a week service.



No its not they are
Moving the plane to FLL
 
Blueknows
Posts: 247
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:58 pm

Yah I was wrong it was HDN

DISCONTINUING LGB-HDN SERVICE

We need to deploy aircraft where they can generate the most revenue and benefit to our network, and as a result, we will not be operating flights between Long Beach and Steamboat Springs this coming winter season.

Instead, we are increasing LGB-SLC service, a market that is showing strength and will provide an extra lift to the many Crewmembers who live in the Salt Lake City area. Service to/from SLC will be increased by two flights per week, utilizing the slots that we would have used for the Steamboat Springs service.
 
Blueknows
Posts: 247
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:59 pm

This winter, we’re to excited return to this popular winter destination, with twice-weekly service from both Boston and Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood operating on Wednesdays and Saturdays. After operating weekly on Saturdays last winter, the FLL-HDN market gains an additional weekly frequency, giving our South Florida Customers even more options to soar to the slopes.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2902
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:06 pm

Final batch of FLL numbers
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
FLLRIC 0805 B6 036695 147.97 147.74 460.88 99.93% 125.7 357 81.78% 120.83 0.1501 100.00%
FLLRIC 0805 NK 024339 041.28 041.36 031.60 99.18% 182.0 180 74.29% 030.73 0.0382 25.43%
Looks like both they and NK upgauged here. NK from A319 to A320 and B6 upgauged one flight to A320 from E90. Given that their yield vs a year ago did not change after the upgauging, this is definitely a good quarter. I'd imagine they need to at least keep this upgauge or go with both A320s in order to compete with NK on cost here. That's some really low yield out of NK. This route is probably breaking even at this yield level.

FLLORD 1182 AA 064649 202.64 201.53 213.20 90.50% 169.4 407 93.77% 188.97 0.1599 150.48%
FLLORD 1182 B6 022004 147.00 147.01 145.61 98.87% 151.5 170 85.42% 125.58 0.1062 100.00%
FLLORD 1182 NK 071754 079.32 077.92 098.50 93.17% 227.5 352 89.60% 069.81 0.0591 55.60%
FLLORD 1182 UA 099947 211.33 210.82 225.04 96.44% 167.8 644 92.50% 195.01 0.1650 155.29%
Alright, here is a tougher market for them. Yield is up 15% YoY. The gap vs AA/UA is basically unchanged YoY and also Q4. So this seems to just be a higher yielding quarter for this route. A prime candidate for A220 since they will need a second flight to be more competitive here.

FLLSLC 2084 B6 024556 227.37 225.85 277.79 97.08% 151.6 179 90.51% 204.42 0.0981 100.00%
FLLSLC 2084 DL 030326 326.99 300.42 397.37 72.59% 178.7 183 92.74% 278.61 0.1337 136.29%
A huge jump in yield here of close to 30% YoY and gap with DL really shrunk YoY and also vs Q4. Really good quarter here. One of the fewer near transcon routes that did well.

FLLSAN 2269 B6 018345 214.52 214.14 303.93 99.58% 153.0 134 89.49% 191.63 0.0845 100.00%
Yield is up 20% YoY. This route had been struggling and turned around in Q4 with some off peak day cuts. Still looking not bad in a quiet Q1.

FLLSJU 1046 B6 115505 152.23 152.23 000.00 100.00% 152.4 897 84.50% 128.64 0.1230 100.00%
FLLSJU 1046 NK 076739 086.99 086.70 133.37 99.39% 218.6 451 77.85% 067.50 0.0645 52.47%
FLLSJU 1046 WN 056493 137.20 136.67 245.12 99.51% 153.9 415 88.47% 120.91 0.1156 93.99%
Yield is up 20% YoY. Given SJU's dynamic from last year, comparing to Q4 might be more appropriate. Their yield gap vs WN shrunk a little bit as WN shrunk here vs a year ago. Their yield gap vs NK increased as NK added capacity here. Keep in mind, this is still a major red ink for them. Also one of the worst route in WN's network. NK does pretty well here all things considered. One route they may need to go to A321 to compete with NK on cost.

FLLBQN 0982 B6 016967 109.71 109.18 265.40 99.66% 151.7 128 87.39% 095.41 0.0972 100.00%
FLLBQN 0982 NK 041222 064.32 064.20 104.17 99.70% 227.3 222 81.71% 052.46 0.0534 54.98%
Another PR routes that they struggle against NK. See that they cut flights whereas NK increased flights and the yield gap remained basically the same.

FLLDCA 0899 B6 075841 205.13 205.10 207.17 98.54% 100.4 859 87.93% 180.35 0.2006 100.00%
FLLDCA 0899 WN 047021 163.10 162.05 179.74 94.06% 143.8 377 86.76% 140.59 0.1564 77.95%
Yield is up 15% YoY. A really good route for them. I'm not sure why they don't put at least 1 A320 here. Seems like there is plenty of demand on this route.

FLLHPN 1097 B6 036693 232.08 232.09 193.38 99.97% 126.8 345 83.89% 194.71 0.1775 100.00%
Yield is flat YoY. Not much changes

FLLORH 1211 B6 014901 200.26 200.10 268.85 99.76% 100.6 176 84.14% 168.36 0.1390 100.00%
Yield is up 15% YoY. Not much change in RPM.

FLLATL 0581 B6 044074 118.14 118.14 000.00 100.00% 153.5 360 79.77% 094.24 0.1622 100.00%
FLLATL 0581 DL 413957 172.42 172.39 248.81 99.96% 194.7 2391 88.91% 153.27 0.2638 162.65%
FLLATL 0581 NK 138473 041.20 041.14 062.35 99.69% 167.4 957 86.43% 035.55 0.0612 37.73%
FLLATL 0581 WN 109758 142.86 142.55 150.65 96.18% 144.4 887 85.67% 122.12 0.2102 129.59%
Not a great quarter here. Their yield is flat YoY but gap with both DL/WN increased.

Overall, looks like FLL yields were generally up in a quarter without Easter effect, so that's encouraging. Seems like their yield weakness from Q1 is mostly due to under performance on the transcon market.
 
User avatar
SANFan
Posts: 4991
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:33 pm

tphuang wrote:
SANFan wrote:
Hmmm.... Thanks for the answers guys. Now all I have to do is decide which one is correct... or just wait and see what the B6 SAN-JFK skeds look like in September!

bb


https://www.google.com/flights#flt=JFK. ... 1;t:f;tt:o
They've definitely added a third (non-mint A320) flight here during an off peak month.
I think they are assuming that AA will continue to cut JFK-SAN when MAX shutdown continues.
I'm just not sure if this will continue forward, since I don't expect MAX to be back until next year.

I still don't understand why the 3rd flight doesn't show on Blue's own website's flight schedule display (Link: http://b6.innosked.com/ ) Why would it show on Google's schedules and not on B6.com? This is why I remain confused as to what's happening.

Thanks for your help in any case. I certainly agree with your thinking about why the extra SAN-JFK freq; after all, they have had triple-daily service in the past on that route.

bb
 
User avatar
Dieuwer
Posts: 1269
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:38 pm

SANFan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
SANFan wrote:
Hmmm.... Thanks for the answers guys. Now all I have to do is decide which one is correct... or just wait and see what the B6 SAN-JFK skeds look like in September!

bb


https://www.google.com/flights#flt=JFK. ... 1;t:f;tt:o
They've definitely added a third (non-mint A320) flight here during an off peak month.
I think they are assuming that AA will continue to cut JFK-SAN when MAX shutdown continues.
I'm just not sure if this will continue forward, since I don't expect MAX to be back until next year.

I still don't understand why the 3rd flight doesn't show on Blue's own website's flight schedule display (Link: http://b6.innosked.com/ ) Why would it show on Google's schedules and not on B6.com? This is why I remain confused as to what's happening.

Thanks for your help in any case. I certainly agree with your thinking about why the extra SAN-JFK freq; after all, they have had triple-daily service in the past on that route.

bb


The third flight DOES show on JetBlue. Just make a dummy booking JFK-SAN for 10/19.
 
USAavdork
Posts: 55
Joined: Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:35 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:47 pm

SANFAN:

SAN-JFK and SAN-BOS are at 3x in September/ October with the added flight being a A320 those 2 months only. As of right now, they then end. I still see both of them loaded on the Jetblue app!
However, it’s my understanding they intend to bring the 3rd SAN-BOS flight back on a A320 mid January.

A320 flights:

BOS-SAN #919
Departs 7:03am
Arrives 10:17am

SAN-BOS #920
Departs 11:07am
Arrives 7:39am


JFK-SAN #1089
Departs 11:29am
Arrives 2:31pm

SAN-JFK #1090
Departs 3:30pm
Arrives 11:52pm
 
jplatts
Posts: 2521
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Jul 12, 2019 5:20 pm

tphuang wrote:
a few more Boston numbers.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS SeatPerFlight Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
BOSDFW 1562 AA 156480 253.55 250.79 288.20 92.62% 174.2 1016 88.40% 221.69 0.1419 165.35%
BOSDFW 1562 B6 34763 155.60 155.60 0.00 100.00% 144.1 280 86.16% 134.07 0.0858 100.00%
Obviously a tough market. At some point, they need to switch over to A220 here and add a flight or 2. The current mix of A320 + E90s just aren't going to do well here. Their yield here didn't change YoY. AA's fare and LF both went up, so not the greatest quarter.


What are the numbers like on WN BOS-DAL nonstop service compared to B6 BOS-DFW and AA BOS-DFW nonstop service?
 
tphuang
Posts: 2902
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 14, 2019 5:18 pm

schedule extension time.

JFK-RDU is all A320s, which is good. JFK-ORD is still on E90. I think that should be upgauged. That 11th flight on JFK-LAX got moved to 4th flight on FLL-LAX. Still not sure why they aren't just getting more mint config A321s.

From what I can see, there is some continued cuts on certain BOS routes. RSW looks to be upgauging to mostly A321s which is why it's down a couple of flights for March/April. JAX obviously already upgauged to A320, which is why it lost a flight. The most surprising one is TPA, which lost flights to both JFK/BOS. I don't understand what's going on there, since both a very profitable flights for them. FLL also lost a flight in Mar/April and there is no upgauging there either. CHS down to just one daily A320 on most days for Mar/Apr. PBI stays the same and gets a A321. Looks like MCO is gaining more flights from BOS, I'm seeing 9 flights on a lot of days in march/April. Business markets generally stay the same.

It does still make me wonder if they are crunched for gates in March/April at BOS.

Some things don't add up here given that they should be getting more neo deliveries at start of next year and I'm not sure where that is showing up in their schedule extension.
 
Iggy500
Posts: 2
Joined: Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:40 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:00 pm

So B6's LGA-MCO/FLL routes will only be on A321s starting October 27th, considering they dropped a flight for both (5->4 for FLL and 4->3 for MCO). LGA-PBI and LGA-BOS stay the same. Also, I don't think B6 can fit its A321s into LGA's terminal A, since the whole terminal is basically one whole gate for LGA's new concourse B. So, either B6 is moving to B from A in October, or Terminal A will become a complete nightmare for JetBlue flyers.
 
Planeboy17
Posts: 275
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 2:19 am

Iggy500 wrote:
So B6's LGA-MCO/FLL routes will only be on A321s starting October 27th, considering they dropped a flight for both (5->4 for FLL and 4->3 for MCO). LGA-PBI and LGA-BOS stay the same. Also, I don't think B6 can fit its A321s into LGA's terminal A, since the whole terminal is basically one whole gate for LGA's new concourse B. So, either B6 is moving to B from A in October, or Terminal A will become a complete nightmare for JetBlue flyers.

I don’t quite understand what your quote about Terminal A being one whole gate of Terminal B.
I can tell you that B6 can park 321s at gates 3,4 and 6 if necessary.
 
jsteeves3
Posts: 68
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:00 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:07 am

Ok so I will post this on the New England thread too but as you all know JetBlue opened their reservations today and I opted to book a PVD-MCO and back on April 18th-April 25th... THE FLIGHT IS ALMOST SOLD OUT ALREADY! This is crazy!!!! Thoughts?!!!? This is the 6am flight and 2pm flight...

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos