Planeboy17
Posts: 322
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:18 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:19 pm

WeatherPilot wrote:
I don’t see why B6 can’t enter Canada. Yes, there’s the cost part but JFK-YQB/YUL/YYC/YWG/YYC/YVR really aren’t that packed with carriers. There’s a seasonal JFK-YVR on Delta and JFK-YYZ/YUL have just AAEagle and DeltaConnection. The others have nothing to JFK. So why wouldn’t B6 take advantage of these routes to a big city like NYC and also feed their network to Florida/Caribbean/Latin America and in the future Europe.

I see these replies often when someone says XYZ-JFK would work great but don’t realize that slots are needed and, as far as I know, B6 has no more available slots, at least during peak summer. They can add flights between 8 pm to 10 am I believe, without slots but that pretty much limits a route to one flight a day.
For B6 to start all of those routes you suggest, especially in summer, they would have to drop a number of flights, and or , a number of cities.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Sep 26, 2019 2:56 pm

So the big news of this week for Jetblue is A321NEO officially joining service
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=63363
All the photos and reviews look really good.

looks like they might be soon offering more amenities on the shuttle routes out of BOS
https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-c ... le-routes/
not sure NYC also includes JFK and EWR also. I think they should consider adding these amenities to ORD and BWI if they really want to be competitive.

A photo on where JetBlue thinks A321LR/XLR could fly to
https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/11 ... 92/photo/1
Looks like Dublin, London, Paris, Amsterdam, Madrid and Lisbon for LR. I actually don't see the need for Lisbon given their relationship with TP.
for XLR, they also include EDI, MAN, BRU, Porto as cities who are already within LR range but would be served with XLR.

On top of that, looks like for XLr they include BCN, Valencia, Marrakech, Bordeau, Nice, Frankfurt, Copenhagen, Oslo, Stockholm, Berlin, Hamburg, Milan, Rome, Geneva and Venice. Surprising that Munich isn't included in what is a very wide list they are considering. But gives you an idea of their thought process here.

On a complete unrelated topic, I took a look at A220 and A321NEO economics given that they are the new aircraft in play here

At baseline. I treat the CASM of 150 seat A320 to be 1. So everything is relative to this. So the overall cost of A320 is 150.

JetBlue previously said stage length adjusted CASM on E90 is 20% higher than A320, so I have 1.2 as per seat cost and 120 as overall cost.

Based on comments JetBlue made about A321, I calculated it's overall cost to be 167.0 (or 8% higher than A320 overall. Not sure how accurate this is). So I got per seat cost of A321 to be around 0.835. And the per seat cost of 162 seat A320 to be 0.926. Although this is probably off since there is an extra FA.

the interesting part is when we look at A220. JetBlue said the fuel cost of A220 is 40% lower (or 60%) per seat compared to E90 and overall cost per seat is 29% lower. Based on that. I got per seat cost of 1.2 * 0.71 = 0.852 for A220, so not far off from 200 seat A321CEO and quite a bit better than 162 seat A320. To verify this, I multiplied by the number of seats per A220 which is 140 and got total operating cost of 119.3, which is almost the same as E90. That matches JetBlue's previous statement that A220's total operating cost is about the same as E90.

for A321NEO, I assume that the fuel cost is 16% lower than A320CEO based on the comments I've read on this board and the remaining cost to be the same. Using A220 as model, I calculated it to be around 60% non-fuel cost and 40% fuel cost per flight. Of course there are other fixed costs that are factored in a company's earning, but don't matter on a per flight basis. Using that, I get that A321NEO is about 6.4% lower than A321CEO per seat, which is abou 0.785

given this, it's clear that A220 will not only make the existing E90 routes a lot more economical, but also make A320 routes much more economical. It would have a slightly lower CASM than even a hypothetical 162 seat A320NEO with much fewer seats to fill. Which is probably why B6 upgauged all the A320NEO orders. A hypothetical 165 seat A220-500 would be a dream aircraft for B6 on many of the existing routes, since it would be able to replace the capacity of A320 with A321NEO costs.
 
Abeam79
Posts: 303
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:16 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Sep 28, 2019 3:00 am

Looks like JetBlue is actively trying to get more flying/gates, along with spirit at ewr. B6 was right next door to wn gates. Would be easy for them to just snap those gates without moving their ops.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/airlines-l ... 1569499202
 
SurfandSnow
Posts: 1463
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2009 7:09 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Sep 28, 2019 5:26 am

Abeam79 wrote:
Looks like JetBlue is actively trying to get more flying/gates, along with spirit at ewr.


No surprise there! Popular destinations like NAS and SRQ are definite possibilities when it comes to theoretical B6 expansion from EWR. I wonder if service to the West Coast may be under consideration as well?
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Sep 28, 2019 11:49 am

Tell UA to put its money where their mouth is

“we will give B6 and NK 5 slots each if we retire the WN slots for the good of the airport”

If not, they are in no position to complain about EWR congestion

AA tried this gambit at LGA 10 years ago and failed miserably.

I imagine these slots will be divided up between B6, NK and F9. B6 and NK will get an extra gate

If I had to guess, B6 will add more Island flying and down the road 3 daily to LAX (but that is down the road)
 
maximairways
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Sep 28, 2019 1:06 pm

Newark doesn't have slots.
 
WeatherPilot
Posts: 513
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:03 pm

Schedule extension through June 10th due out tomorrow.
 
tphuang
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Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:53 pm

From schedule extension, looks like the following.
BOS-CLE getting another flight, now at 5x daily
BOS-SFO's 6th flight comes back as all core A321
BOS-PIT is down to 5x vs 6x for last summer, but 1 flight has been upgauged to A320.
BOS-BUF now is at 4x even in summer. I guess they've given up on chasing DL off this route on the short term
BOS-SAN is now at 3x daily for most the year, with one flight on A320.
BOS-FLL down to 5x in May with 2 of the flights upgauged to A321
BOS-RSW now has 2 flights out of 4 upgauged to A321.
BOS-PBI down to 3 flights in summer time, all A320.
BOS-RDU up to 7x daily from May (last year was only peak summer).
BOS-DCA up to 16x daily in peak summer

Looks like a lot of upgauging at BOS, total flights haven't changed too much.
aside from that
FLL-JAX is up to 4x daily and PAP up to 3x daily
a couple of Caribbean reductions.
FLL-RIC is all A320s now
JFK-ORD back to A320s for summer time.
jfk-RDU has been all A320s or A320/E90 for most of th e year.

EWR up a few flights in summer time.
 
tphuang
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 8:27 pm

maximairways wrote:
Newark doesn't have slots.

it doesn't technically have slots, but FAA has not been approving new flights out of EWR for good portion of the day, so EWR has become de facto slot constrained again.

Would be good if they can get another 8 to 10 flights out of EWR.
 
Iggy500
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 10:27 pm

tphuang wrote:
From schedule extension, looks like the following.
BOS-CLE getting another flight, now at 5x daily
BOS-SFO's 6th flight comes back as all core A321
BOS-PIT is down to 5x vs 6x for last summer, but 1 flight has been upgauged to A320.
BOS-BUF now is at 4x even in summer. I guess they've given up on chasing DL off this route on the short term
BOS-SAN is now at 3x daily for most the year, with one flight on A320.
BOS-FLL down to 5x in May with 2 of the flights upgauged to A321
BOS-RSW now has 2 flights out of 4 upgauged to A321.
BOS-PBI down to 3 flights in summer time, all A320.
BOS-RDU up to 7x daily from May (last year was only peak summer).
BOS-DCA up to 16x daily in peak summer

Looks like a lot of upgauging at BOS, total flights haven't changed too much.
aside from that
FLL-JAX is up to 4x daily and PAP up to 3x daily
a couple of Caribbean reductions.
FLL-RIC is all A320s now
JFK-ORD back to A320s for summer time.
jfk-RDU has been all A320s or A320/E90 for most of th e year.

EWR up a few flights in summer time.


Continuing:

BOS/JFK/MCO-ATL: Most of B6’s ATL flights will be used be E-Jets now. I’m kinda shocked about MCO-ATL, because of the E190 downgrade. Kinda afraid that B6 might have thoughts of leaving the market as well.

BOS-MSP: One flight has been downgraded to an E190.

BOS-TPA: One flight has been upgraded to an A321.

JFK-MSY: All flights have been upgraded to A321s.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 675
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Sun Sep 29, 2019 10:33 pm

tphuang wrote:
From schedule extension, looks like the following.
BOS-CLE getting another flight, now at 5x daily
BOS-SFO's 6th flight comes back as all core A321
BOS-PIT is down to 5x vs 6x for last summer, but 1 flight has been upgauged to A320.
BOS-BUF now is at 4x even in summer. I guess they've given up on chasing DL off this route on the short term
BOS-SAN is now at 3x daily for most the year, with one flight on A320.
BOS-FLL down to 5x in May with 2 of the flights upgauged to A321
BOS-RSW now has 2 flights out of 4 upgauged to A321.
BOS-PBI down to 3 flights in summer time, all A320.
BOS-RDU up to 7x daily from May (last year was only peak summer).
BOS-DCA up to 16x daily in peak summer

Looks like a lot of upgauging at BOS, total flights haven't changed too much.
aside from that
FLL-JAX is up to 4x daily and PAP up to 3x daily
a couple of Caribbean reductions.
FLL-RIC is all A320s now
JFK-ORD back to A320s for summer time.
jfk-RDU has been all A320s or A320/E90 for most of th e year.

EWR up a few flights in summer time.

It’s more than a couple of Caribbean reductions out of FLL. AUA, GCM, NAS, BGI, POS, SXM, PLS, SJU, SDQ, STI all saw YoY reductions.
 
tphuang
Posts: 3229
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:51 am

Iggy500 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
From schedule extension, looks like the following.
BOS-CLE getting another flight, now at 5x daily
BOS-SFO's 6th flight comes back as all core A321
BOS-PIT is down to 5x vs 6x for last summer, but 1 flight has been upgauged to A320.
BOS-BUF now is at 4x even in summer. I guess they've given up on chasing DL off this route on the short term
BOS-SAN is now at 3x daily for most the year, with one flight on A320.
BOS-FLL down to 5x in May with 2 of the flights upgauged to A321
BOS-RSW now has 2 flights out of 4 upgauged to A321.
BOS-PBI down to 3 flights in summer time, all A320.
BOS-RDU up to 7x daily from May (last year was only peak summer).
BOS-DCA up to 16x daily in peak summer

Looks like a lot of upgauging at BOS, total flights haven't changed too much.
aside from that
FLL-JAX is up to 4x daily and PAP up to 3x daily
a couple of Caribbean reductions.
FLL-RIC is all A320s now
JFK-ORD back to A320s for summer time.
jfk-RDU has been all A320s or A320/E90 for most of th e year.

EWR up a few flights in summer time.


Continuing:

BOS/JFK/MCO-ATL: Most of B6’s ATL flights will be used be E-Jets now. I’m kinda shocked about MCO-ATL, because of the E190 downgrade. Kinda afraid that B6 might have thoughts of leaving the market as well.

BOS-MSP: One flight has been downgraded to an E190.

BOS-TPA: One flight has been upgraded to an A321.

JFK-MSY: All flights have been upgraded to A321s.


I haven't seen any E90 on JFK-ATL. It's been A320 or A321. BOS-ATL has had 3 out of 5 on E90 for a few months now. ATL/MSP needs A220 so bad.
 
n2dru
Posts: 136
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:02 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:19 am

Speaking of MCO-ATL..anyone know how B6 is doing on the route? I think its once daily against DL and Southwest multiples a day not to mention Spirit and Frontier.
 
Iggy500
Posts: 11
Joined: Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:40 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:55 am

tphuang wrote:
Iggy500 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
From schedule extension, looks like the following.
BOS-CLE getting another flight, now at 5x daily
BOS-SFO's 6th flight comes back as all core A321
BOS-PIT is down to 5x vs 6x for last summer, but 1 flight has been upgauged to A320.
BOS-BUF now is at 4x even in summer. I guess they've given up on chasing DL off this route on the short term
BOS-SAN is now at 3x daily for most the year, with one flight on A320.
BOS-FLL down to 5x in May with 2 of the flights upgauged to A321
BOS-RSW now has 2 flights out of 4 upgauged to A321.
BOS-PBI down to 3 flights in summer time, all A320.
BOS-RDU up to 7x daily from May (last year was only peak summer).
BOS-DCA up to 16x daily in peak summer

Looks like a lot of upgauging at BOS, total flights haven't changed too much.
aside from that
FLL-JAX is up to 4x daily and PAP up to 3x daily
a couple of Caribbean reductions.
FLL-RIC is all A320s now
JFK-ORD back to A320s for summer time.
jfk-RDU has been all A320s or A320/E90 for most of th e year.

EWR up a few flights in summer time.


Continuing:

BOS/JFK/MCO-ATL: Most of B6’s ATL flights will be used be E-Jets now. I’m kinda shocked about MCO-ATL, because of the E190 downgrade. Kinda afraid that B6 might have thoughts of leaving the market as well.

BOS-MSP: One flight has been downgraded to an E190.

BOS-TPA: One flight has been upgraded to an A321.

JFK-MSY: All flights have been upgraded to A321s.


I haven't seen any E90 on JFK-ATL. It's been A320 or A321. BOS-ATL has had 3 out of 5 on E90 for a few months now. ATL/MSP needs A220 so bad.


Well, B6 sometimes uses their E190s on their JFK-ATL flights, and it’s mostly on the weekends.
 
Iggy500
Posts: 11
Joined: Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:40 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:59 am

Also, I think that if B6 orders the A220-100, it would be a life saver for their ATL, DTW, and MSP operations.
 
tphuang
Posts: 3229
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 12:29 pm

Iggy500 wrote:
Also, I think that if B6 orders the A220-100, it would be a life saver for their ATL, DTW, and MSP operations.

DTW is doing fine. They are now at 4x daily for all weekdays and the yields have been pretty good. ATL is always going to be the toughest one, but with A220-300, it will become close to breaking even. Same with MSP.

I don't think they will order many A220-100. It's only really needed for BOS-LGA/DCA/EWR/PHL/SYR/ROC/BUF/PIT, so about 50 to 60 R/T daily. Those will probably be last routes to get converted from E90. BOS-DTW/BWI/BNA/ORD should be moved to A220-300 to achieve cost advantage against WN/legacy mainlines on those routes. Even routes like BOS-RDU/RIC/CLE which don't have mainline competition should probably be upgauged to A220-300 since they would still be competitive in schedule even with upgauging. and then out of the other A320 routes, they should move MSY/AUS/IAH/DFW and possibly DEN over to A220-300 and that will allow them to add frequencies in those markets.

All JFK E90 routes should be moved to A220-300, that's the only way for JFK operation to continue growing. Like why is JFK-RDU/ORD still on E90 for large part of the year? If the route can't handle A220-300, reduce frequency and use the slots on TATL flights.

Out of FLL, the only route I think could use A220-100 is JAX and any intra-Florida route they might want to add. All other routes like NAS/CHS/MSY/RIC/RDU/BNA should all be converted to A220-300 to have cost advantage against WN.

n2dru wrote:
Speaking of MCO-ATL..anyone know how B6 is doing on the route? I think its once daily against DL and Southwest multiples a day not to mention Spirit and Frontier.

It's a tough route. I think they would've dropped it by now if they haven't planned for a MCO buildup. We will see, MCO has been neglected for a while by B6.

To me, they really can't get those A220s soon enough. I'd be shocked if they don't exercise all the A220 options and may even buy more if A220-500 becomes available.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3278
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:36 pm

Iggy500 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
From schedule extension, looks like the following.
BOS-CLE getting another flight, now at 5x daily
BOS-SFO's 6th flight comes back as all core A321
BOS-PIT is down to 5x vs 6x for last summer, but 1 flight has been upgauged to A320.
BOS-BUF now is at 4x even in summer. I guess they've given up on chasing DL off this route on the short term
BOS-SAN is now at 3x daily for most the year, with one flight on A320.
BOS-FLL down to 5x in May with 2 of the flights upgauged to A321
BOS-RSW now has 2 flights out of 4 upgauged to A321.
BOS-PBI down to 3 flights in summer time, all A320.
BOS-RDU up to 7x daily from May (last year was only peak summer).
BOS-DCA up to 16x daily in peak summer

Looks like a lot of upgauging at BOS, total flights haven't changed too much.
aside from that
FLL-JAX is up to 4x daily and PAP up to 3x daily
a couple of Caribbean reductions.
FLL-RIC is all A320s now
JFK-ORD back to A320s for summer time.
jfk-RDU has been all A320s or A320/E90 for most of th e year.

EWR up a few flights in summer time.


Continuing:

BOS/JFK/MCO-ATL: Most of B6’s ATL flights will be used be E-Jets now. I’m kinda shocked about MCO-ATL, because of the E190 downgrade. Kinda afraid that B6 might have thoughts of leaving the market as well.

BOS-MSP: One flight has been downgraded to an E190.

BOS-TPA: One flight has been upgraded to an A321.

JFK-MSY: All flights have been upgraded to A321s.


Thanks for the summary. Some observations/questions:

-The third BOS-SAN (all-core) will be timed so that the return to BOS competes directly with the second daily that AS is adding. The plane will overnight in SAN and then depart at 6:45am back to BOS. I think this is the first time B6 will RON an aircraft at SAN, and shows real commitment to keeping AS in check.
-The sixth BOS-SFO (all-core) is impressive, and shows that B6 isn't letting a lack for Mint capacity keep it from competing even further in this market (along with BOS/JFK-SAN). I do wonder though if this is just a placeholder, and if these frequencies will eventually be converted to Mint once the 321neo deliveries speed up / get back to schedule.
-BOS-CLE at 5x is also impressive, although it appears to come at the cost of the 6th BOS-PIT. I suppose it's a fair trade-off as 5 frequencies in both markets is still market-leading.
-BOS-DCA at up to 16x is jaw-dropping. It appears that the current 15x are doing really well, with some very expensive walk-up fares despite all the capacity.
-It's disappointing to see that FLL/JFK-ATL are being downgauged to the E190. I thought they were doing just fine in these markets (specifically JFK). I wonder if they just needed the A320's/A321's for those non-Mint transcons, and will throw the A220's into ATL once they start arriving in 2020/2021.
-The Caribbean cuts from FLL are pretty telling. I think B6 is struggling to deal with NK in some of these markets, along with some of the general demand softness or overcapacity (particularly SJU and PUJ). They cannot come out with that basic economy product soon enough.
 
Boston757
Posts: 58
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2015 5:39 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:51 pm

Just read AA will resume Boston,London and Paris in March on the 777-200. I was under the impression from another JBL thread that AA wouldnt be alowed or be able to re start London out of Boston and JBL would be taking that route. However,they had not decided or at least announced what UK city they would serve.
 
SyracuseAvGeek
Posts: 473
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:37 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:14 pm

I don’t think AA can hold on much longer to the BOS-ROC/SYR flights. Particularly the SYR flight, the one flight is timed so poorly that you can’t connect anywhere and it is delayed 30+ min almost half the time. ROC would be able to handle a second flight to BOS with B6 (once AA ends it) but what are your thoughts on SYR and the possibility of a mid-day flight?
"I haven't been everywhere yet, but it's on my list."
 
tphuang
Posts: 3229
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:22 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
Thanks for the summary. Some observations/questions:

-The third BOS-SAN (all-core) will be timed so that the return to BOS competes directly with the second daily that AS is adding. The plane will overnight in SAN and then depart at 6:45am back to BOS. I think this is the first time B6 will RON an aircraft at SAN, and shows real commitment to keeping AS in check.
-The sixth BOS-SFO (all-core) is impressive, and shows that B6 isn't letting a lack for Mint capacity keep it from competing even further in this market (along with BOS/JFK-SAN). I do wonder though if this is just a placeholder, and if these frequencies will eventually be converted to Mint once the 321neo deliveries speed up / get back to schedule.
-BOS-CLE at 5x is also impressive, although it appears to come at the cost of the 6th BOS-PIT. I suppose it's a fair trade-off as 5 frequencies in both markets is still market-leading.
-BOS-DCA at up to 16x is jaw-dropping. It appears that the current 15x are doing really well, with some very expensive walk-up fares despite all the capacity.
-It's disappointing to see that FLL/JFK-ATL are being downgauged to the E190. I thought they were doing just fine in these markets (specifically JFK). I wonder if they just needed the A320's/A321's for those non-Mint transcons, and will throw the A220's into ATL once they start arriving in 2020/2021.
-The Caribbean cuts from FLL are pretty telling. I think B6 is struggling to deal with NK in some of these markets, along with some of the general demand softness or overcapacity (particularly SJU and PUJ). They cannot come out with that basic economy product soon enough.


I think they are already trying 6th BOS-SFO flight with all core A321 in November, so maybe this addition is for non-winter month where there is more non-premium demand. It's a bummer with losing 6th BOS-PIT flight, but maybe there will be more than just for 1 daily A320 flight going forward.

I think JFK/FLL-ATL is still all A320s. Seems like the downguage is for a couple of BOS flights and MCO.

Boston757 wrote:
Just read AA will resume Boston,London and Paris in March on the 777-200. I was under the impression from another JBL thread that AA wouldnt be alowed or be able to re start London out of Boston and JBL would be taking that route. However,they had not decided or at least announced what UK city they would serve.

sorry, I commented on that one and was unclear. AA is resuming BOS-LHR, but the Paris flight is by Level. It will be interesting which London airport they fly into. With TCX collapse and DY troubles, they can probably get all the LGW slots they need for full schedule out of BOS/JFK right out of the gates. I'm sure they will still work hard for LHR slots, but LGW is certainly a possibility at this point. The next obvious destination for them is Paris. Both cities seem to be quite competitive already, but B6 has shown on transcon market it can be very profitable on this type of markets. And I think A321LR will give them a very competitive product in both front of the cabin and coach.
 
ROCDLFAN
Posts: 246
Joined: Fri May 01, 2015 2:43 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:56 pm

SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
I don’t think AA can hold on much longer to the BOS-ROC/SYR flights. Particularly the SYR flight, the one flight is timed so poorly that you can’t connect anywhere and it is delayed 30+ min almost half the time. ROC would be able to handle a second flight to BOS with B6 (once AA ends it) but what are your thoughts on SYR and the possibility of a mid-day flight?


At this point, I’ll believe AA calling it quits when I see it. Every single person from WNY in this forum has been saying these routes are going to be cut since mid 2012, including myself, and yet they’re still here. The only thing I could possibly see causing AA to pull the plug would be DL entering the markets, and I just don’t expect them to do that. B6 going 2X daily and better timing their flights for business travelers before AA exits would happen before anything else, and that’s still not likely.
"The strength of the turbulence is directly proportional to the temperature of your coffee."
 
WeatherPilot
Posts: 513
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2017 1:51 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:07 pm

ROCDLFAN wrote:
SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
I don’t think AA can hold on much longer to the BOS-ROC/SYR flights. Particularly the SYR flight, the one flight is timed so poorly that you can’t connect anywhere and it is delayed 30+ min almost half the time. ROC would be able to handle a second flight to BOS with B6 (once AA ends it) but what are your thoughts on SYR and the possibility of a mid-day flight?


At this point, I’ll believe AA calling it quits when I see it. Every single person from WNY in this forum has been saying these routes are going to be cut since mid 2012, including myself, and yet they’re still here. The only thing I could possibly see causing AA to pull the plug would be DL entering the markets, and I just don’t expect them to do that. B6 going 2X daily and better timing their flights for business travelers before AA exits would happen before anything else, and that’s still not likely.


If B6 goes double daily BOS-ROC/SYR then AA will likely throw in the towel. However, when that happens DL will probably see that as an opening to mess with B6 on yet another route and start service themselves. I can’t fathom all three fighting it out at the same time for BOS-ROC/SYR.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:11 pm

Rumor is AA bought a slot for their extra BOS-LHR flight. So why did JetBlue not buy this slot??
 
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itripreport
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:11 pm

Interesting that JetBlue is adding extra frequencies on MINT routes on non-mint aircraft, ar they on a Mint aircraft shortage?
 
Boston757
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:28 pm

What’s with the FLL Caribbean flights that were announced.
 
Boston757
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:30 pm

On the AA-LHR slot that was said to be purchased, they did have a dormant LHR slot out of Boston unless that was moved and they were given the opportunity to buy another.
 
WeatherPilot
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:30 pm

Dieuwer wrote:
Rumor is AA bought a slot for their extra BOS-LHR flight. So why did JetBlue not buy this slot??


Maybe they bought it from a OneWorld partner.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:32 pm

WeatherPilot wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Rumor is AA bought a slot for their extra BOS-LHR flight. So why did JetBlue not buy this slot??


Maybe they bought it from a OneWorld partner.


apparently they purchased 2 from SAS a while back, and maybe they are using 1 of those for this flight? So to the point above, slot might not have been available to B6, but needed to be used under the use it or lose it rule.
That feeling when you sit at the end of a runway, brakes are released and the raw power takes over. Now that is a thing of beauty and it never gets old.
 
Iggy500
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 4:41 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
Iggy500 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
From schedule extension, looks like the following.
BOS-CLE getting another flight, now at 5x daily
BOS-SFO's 6th flight comes back as all core A321
BOS-PIT is down to 5x vs 6x for last summer, but 1 flight has been upgauged to A320.
BOS-BUF now is at 4x even in summer. I guess they've given up on chasing DL off this route on the short term
BOS-SAN is now at 3x daily for most the year, with one flight on A320.
BOS-FLL down to 5x in May with 2 of the flights upgauged to A321
BOS-RSW now has 2 flights out of 4 upgauged to A321.
BOS-PBI down to 3 flights in summer time, all A320.
BOS-RDU up to 7x daily from May (last year was only peak summer).
BOS-DCA up to 16x daily in peak summer

Looks like a lot of upgauging at BOS, total flights haven't changed too much.
aside from that
FLL-JAX is up to 4x daily and PAP up to 3x daily
a couple of Caribbean reductions.
FLL-RIC is all A320s now
JFK-ORD back to A320s for summer time.
jfk-RDU has been all A320s or A320/E90 for most of th e year.

EWR up a few flights in summer time.


Continuing:

BOS/JFK/MCO-ATL: Most of B6’s ATL flights will be used be E-Jets now. I’m kinda shocked about MCO-ATL, because of the E190 downgrade. Kinda afraid that B6 might have thoughts of leaving the market as well.

BOS-MSP: One flight has been downgraded to an E190.

BOS-TPA: One flight has been upgraded to an A321.

JFK-MSY: All flights have been upgraded to A321s.


Thanks for the summary. Some observations/questions:

-The third BOS-SAN (all-core) will be timed so that the return to BOS competes directly with the second daily that AS is adding. The plane will overnight in SAN and then depart at 6:45am back to BOS. I think this is the first time B6 will RON an aircraft at SAN, and shows real commitment to keeping AS in check.
-The sixth BOS-SFO (all-core) is impressive, and shows that B6 isn't letting a lack for Mint capacity keep it from competing even further in this market (along with BOS/JFK-SAN). I do wonder though if this is just a placeholder, and if these frequencies will eventually be converted to Mint once the 321neo deliveries speed up / get back to schedule.
-BOS-CLE at 5x is also impressive, although it appears to come at the cost of the 6th BOS-PIT. I suppose it's a fair trade-off as 5 frequencies in both markets is still market-leading.
-BOS-DCA at up to 16x is jaw-dropping. It appears that the current 15x are doing really well, with some very expensive walk-up fares despite all the capacity.
-It's disappointing to see that FLL/JFK-ATL are being downgauged to the E190. I thought they were doing just fine in these markets (specifically JFK). I wonder if they just needed the A320's/A321's for those non-Mint transcons, and will throw the A220's into ATL once they start arriving in 2020/2021.
-The Caribbean cuts from FLL are pretty telling. I think B6 is struggling to deal with NK in some of these markets, along with some of the general demand softness or overcapacity (particularly SJU and PUJ). They cannot come out with that basic economy product soon enough.


It looks like there are even more changes.

FLL-LIM: All daily flights have been upgraded to the A321neo. This is a great change IMO.
MCO-CUN: Now 2X daily service. The extra flight will be on an A321.
DCA-MCO: One flight has been upgraded to an A321.
DCA-SJU: All daily flights have been upgraded to the A321neo.
BOS-SJU: One flight has been upgraded to the A321neo.
 
Bluewho
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 5:20 pm

There is definitely a lack of mint planes heck there is a lack of planes. Rumor going around is the 190s might not be going away at least not all of them.
 
jetbluefan1
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 5:52 pm

tphuang wrote:
I think JFK/FLL-ATL is still all A320s. Seems like the downguage is for a couple of BOS flights and MCO.


OK that makes a lot more sense. Frankly I don't understand why B6 even bothers with ATL-MCO (or LAX/AUS-MCO for that matter), and I could see it eventually disappearing. The yields are awful, B6 has the lowest market share of any non-stop competitor, and the importance to the network is seemingly low.

itripreport wrote:
Interesting that JetBlue is adding extra frequencies on MINT routes on non-mint aircraft, ar they on a Mint aircraft shortage?


There is a shortage of Mint aircraft, but B6 still sees reason to increase capacity in these markets. Here is how I see it:

BOS-SFO: At 5x this a very strong Mint market where yields have rebounded significantly from the trough a couple years ago. The sixth All-Core frequency is to match UA's frequency while further pulling away from DL/AS. That said, given the sometimes very high walk-up Mint fares ($1600+ one-way), I think this a market that could use more Mint seats.

BOS-SAN: B6 ran a third Mint frequency off-and-on in this market for awhile, although I don't think it was particularly successful for the front of the plane (walk-ups were routinely cheaper than BOS-SFO/LAX). I think the third All-Core frequency here is a way to keep AS in check while preserving Mint yields on the 2 other frequencies.

JFK-SAN: Pretty sure the third All-Core frequency is wholly related to AA's (temporary?) pullback in this market, which also happens to be very high yielding. I think if B6 didn't need any spare Mint capacity for FLL/JFK-LAX, this market would be a strong contender for a third Mint frequency.

Iggy500 wrote:
It looks like there are even more changes.

FLL-LIM: All daily flights have been upgraded to the A321neo. This is a great change IMO.
MCO-CUN: Now 2X daily service. The extra flight will be on an A321.
DCA-MCO: One flight has been upgraded to an A321.
DCA-SJU: All daily flights have been upgraded to the A321neo.
BOS-SJU: One flight has been upgraded to the A321neo.


Nice finds.

FLL-LIM upgraded to the A321neo seems to be a great use for that market (the A320 seemed a bit long in the tooth for this long of a flight).

DCA-MCO upgauged to the A321 is very surprising. I would have expected this to first move up to an A320, but the jump to the A321 is interesting. That said, this is a huge market, and I don't think B6 will have any issues filling up those seats.

DCA/BOS-SJU with the A321neo is surprising. I suppose B6 needs a place to put those neo's before they introduce additional markets where they will be absolutely necessary (such as JFK-GYE/GEO).
 
11C
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Mon Sep 30, 2019 6:00 pm

Bluewho wrote:
There is definitely a lack of mint planes heck there is a lack of planes. Rumor going around is the 190s might not be going away at least not all of them.

I agree, watching an airline get rid of airframes is usually an exercise in rolling delays. It somehow almost always happens later than originally planned, barring an economic downturn, or some undiscovered technical issue with that particular type.
 
Iggy500
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:30 am

jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I think JFK/FLL-ATL is still all A320s. Seems like the downguage is for a couple of BOS flights and MCO.


OK that makes a lot more sense. Frankly I don't understand why B6 even bothers with ATL-MCO (or LAX/AUS-MCO for that matter), and I could see it eventually disappearing. The yields are awful, B6 has the lowest market share of any non-stop competitor, and the importance to the network is seemingly low.

itripreport wrote:
Interesting that JetBlue is adding extra frequencies on MINT routes on non-mint aircraft, ar they on a Mint aircraft shortage?


There is a shortage of Mint aircraft, but B6 still sees reason to increase capacity in these markets. Here is how I see it:

BOS-SFO: At 5x this a very strong Mint market where yields have rebounded significantly from the trough a couple years ago. The sixth All-Core frequency is to match UA's frequency while further pulling away from DL/AS. That said, given the sometimes very high walk-up Mint fares ($1600+ one-way), I think this a market that could use more Mint seats.

BOS-SAN: B6 ran a third Mint frequency off-and-on in this market for awhile, although I don't think it was particularly successful for the front of the plane (walk-ups were routinely cheaper than BOS-SFO/LAX). I think the third All-Core frequency here is a way to keep AS in check while preserving Mint yields on the 2 other frequencies.

JFK-SAN: Pretty sure the third All-Core frequency is wholly related to AA's (temporary?) pullback in this market, which also happens to be very high yielding. I think if B6 didn't need any spare Mint capacity for FLL/JFK-LAX, this market would be a strong contender for a third Mint frequency.

Iggy500 wrote:
It looks like there are even more changes.

FLL-LIM: All daily flights have been upgraded to the A321neo. This is a great change IMO.
MCO-CUN: Now 2X on Wednesdays. The extra flight will be on an A321.
DCA-MCO: One flight has been upgraded to an A321.
DCA-SJU: All daily flights have been upgraded to the A321neo.
BOS-SJU: One flight has been upgraded to the A321neo.


Nice finds.

FLL-LIM upgraded to the A321neo seems to be a great use for that market (the A320 seemed a bit long in the tooth for this long of a flight).

DCA-MCO upgauged to the A321 is very surprising. I would have expected this to first move up to an A320, but the jump to the A321 is interesting. That said, this is a huge market, and I don't think B6 will have any issues filling up those seats.

DCA/BOS-SJU with the A321neo is surprising. I suppose B6 needs a place to put those neo's before they introduce additional markets where they will be absolutely necessary (such as JFK-GYE/GEO).


I agree with your point. B6's A321 upgrade for one of its DCA-MCO flights is a great move. Their A321 can fit as much passengers as 2 of their E190s can, and I kinda feel like B6 should use the A321 for its ATL flights. For BOS, Instead of 4X E190/1X A320, it should be 2X A321/1X A320 or 3X A321. This can give B6 the upper edge against DL when it comes to their aircraft interiors. If B6 needs to do something with their leftover ATL slots, they could add a daily SJU flight on an A320/A321. IDK why F9 is doing the ATL-SJU route, but I feel like B6 should do it as well. One time, B6 actually did the ATL-SJU route as a relief flight after Hurricane Maria passed. The flight was really full, and I feel like this could be a good future oppurtunity for B6.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 675
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 2:57 am

Iggy500 wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I think JFK/FLL-ATL is still all A320s. Seems like the downguage is for a couple of BOS flights and MCO.


OK that makes a lot more sense. Frankly I don't understand why B6 even bothers with ATL-MCO (or LAX/AUS-MCO for that matter), and I could see it eventually disappearing. The yields are awful, B6 has the lowest market share of any non-stop competitor, and the importance to the network is seemingly low.

itripreport wrote:
Interesting that JetBlue is adding extra frequencies on MINT routes on non-mint aircraft, ar they on a Mint aircraft shortage?


There is a shortage of Mint aircraft, but B6 still sees reason to increase capacity in these markets. Here is how I see it:

BOS-SFO: At 5x this a very strong Mint market where yields have rebounded significantly from the trough a couple years ago. The sixth All-Core frequency is to match UA's frequency while further pulling away from DL/AS. That said, given the sometimes very high walk-up Mint fares ($1600+ one-way), I think this a market that could use more Mint seats.

BOS-SAN: B6 ran a third Mint frequency off-and-on in this market for awhile, although I don't think it was particularly successful for the front of the plane (walk-ups were routinely cheaper than BOS-SFO/LAX). I think the third All-Core frequency here is a way to keep AS in check while preserving Mint yields on the 2 other frequencies.

JFK-SAN: Pretty sure the third All-Core frequency is wholly related to AA's (temporary?) pullback in this market, which also happens to be very high yielding. I think if B6 didn't need any spare Mint capacity for FLL/JFK-LAX, this market would be a strong contender for a third Mint frequency.

Iggy500 wrote:
It looks like there are even more changes.

FLL-LIM: All daily flights have been upgraded to the A321neo. This is a great change IMO.
MCO-CUN: Now 2X on Wednesdays. The extra flight will be on an A321.
DCA-MCO: One flight has been upgraded to an A321.
DCA-SJU: All daily flights have been upgraded to the A321neo.
BOS-SJU: One flight has been upgraded to the A321neo.


Nice finds.

FLL-LIM upgraded to the A321neo seems to be a great use for that market (the A320 seemed a bit long in the tooth for this long of a flight).

DCA-MCO upgauged to the A321 is very surprising. I would have expected this to first move up to an A320, but the jump to the A321 is interesting. That said, this is a huge market, and I don't think B6 will have any issues filling up those seats.

DCA/BOS-SJU with the A321neo is surprising. I suppose B6 needs a place to put those neo's before they introduce additional markets where they will be absolutely necessary (such as JFK-GYE/GEO).


I agree with your point. B6's A321 upgrade for one of its DCA-MCO flights is a great move. Their A321 can fit as much passengers as 2 of their E190s can, and I kinda feel like B6 should use the A321 for its ATL flights. For BOS, Instead of 4X E190/1X A320, it should be 2X A321/1X A320 or 3X A321. This can give B6 the upper edge against DL when it comes to their aircraft interiors. If B6 needs to do something with their leftover ATL slots, they could add a daily SJU flight on an A320/A321. IDK why F9 is doing the ATL-SJU route, but I feel like B6 should do it as well. One time, B6 actually did the ATL-SJU route as a relief flight after Hurricane Maria passed. The flight was really full, and I feel like this could be a good future oppurtunity for B6.


1. ATL doesn't have slots.
2. B6 will start ATL-SJU when they are in the mood to find new and creative ways to burn money.
 
Iggy500
Posts: 11
Joined: Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:40 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 11:58 am

Brickell305 wrote:
Iggy500 wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:

OK that makes a lot more sense. Frankly I don't understand why B6 even bothers with ATL-MCO (or LAX/AUS-MCO for that matter), and I could see it eventually disappearing. The yields are awful, B6 has the lowest market share of any non-stop competitor, and the importance to the network is seemingly low.



There is a shortage of Mint aircraft, but B6 still sees reason to increase capacity in these markets. Here is how I see it:

BOS-SFO: At 5x this a very strong Mint market where yields have rebounded significantly from the trough a couple years ago. The sixth All-Core frequency is to match UA's frequency while further pulling away from DL/AS. That said, given the sometimes very high walk-up Mint fares ($1600+ one-way), I think this a market that could use more Mint seats.

BOS-SAN: B6 ran a third Mint frequency off-and-on in this market for awhile, although I don't think it was particularly successful for the front of the plane (walk-ups were routinely cheaper than BOS-SFO/LAX). I think the third All-Core frequency here is a way to keep AS in check while preserving Mint yields on the 2 other frequencies.

JFK-SAN: Pretty sure the third All-Core frequency is wholly related to AA's (temporary?) pullback in this market, which also happens to be very high yielding. I think if B6 didn't need any spare Mint capacity for FLL/JFK-LAX, this market would be a strong contender for a third Mint frequency.



Nice finds.

FLL-LIM upgraded to the A321neo seems to be a great use for that market (the A320 seemed a bit long in the tooth for this long of a flight).

DCA-MCO upgauged to the A321 is very surprising. I would have expected this to first move up to an A320, but the jump to the A321 is interesting. That said, this is a huge market, and I don't think B6 will have any issues filling up those seats.

DCA/BOS-SJU with the A321neo is surprising. I suppose B6 needs a place to put those neo's before they introduce additional markets where they will be absolutely necessary (such as JFK-GYE/GEO).


I agree with your point. B6's A321 upgrade for one of its DCA-MCO flights is a great move. Their A321 can fit as much passengers as 2 of their E190s can, and I kinda feel like B6 should use the A321 for its ATL flights. For BOS, Instead of 4X E190/1X A320, it should be 2X A321/1X A320 or 3X A321. This can give B6 the upper edge against DL when it comes to their aircraft interiors. If B6 needs to do something with their leftover ATL slots, they could add a daily SJU flight on an A320/A321. IDK why F9 is doing the ATL-SJU route, but I feel like B6 should do it as well. One time, B6 actually did the ATL-SJU route as a relief flight after Hurricane Maria passed. The flight was really full, and I feel like this could be a good future oppurtunity for B6.


1. ATL doesn't have slots.
2. B6 will start ATL-SJU when they are in the mood to find new and creative ways to burn money.


Thanks for correcting. Speaking of ATL, I'm really surprised that B6 can use most of their E-Jets on the BOS-ATL route, and totally be fine. (I can't tell if the LFs are still a big red or if they improved on this route.)
 
tphuang
Posts: 3229
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Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Tue Oct 01, 2019 12:46 pm

Iggy500 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Iggy500 wrote:

I agree with your point. B6's A321 upgrade for one of its DCA-MCO flights is a great move. Their A321 can fit as much passengers as 2 of their E190s can, and I kinda feel like B6 should use the A321 for its ATL flights. For BOS, Instead of 4X E190/1X A320, it should be 2X A321/1X A320 or 3X A321. This can give B6 the upper edge against DL when it comes to their aircraft interiors. If B6 needs to do something with their leftover ATL slots, they could add a daily SJU flight on an A320/A321. IDK why F9 is doing the ATL-SJU route, but I feel like B6 should do it as well. One time, B6 actually did the ATL-SJU route as a relief flight after Hurricane Maria passed. The flight was really full, and I feel like this could be a good future oppurtunity for B6.


1. ATL doesn't have slots.
2. B6 will start ATL-SJU when they are in the mood to find new and creative ways to burn money.


Thanks for correcting. Speaking of ATL, I'm really surprised that B6 can use most of their E-Jets on the BOS-ATL route, and totally be fine. (I can't tell if the LFs are still a big red or if they improved on this route.)


So they've been losing money on BOS-ATL for a while. It was their biggest money loser last year from the routes I tracked. It's always going to be tough and E90 certainly has high cost, but with WN exiting the route and A220 coming to service soon, I think they can get performance up to a more sustainable level. And the same applies to MSP/DFW/IAH. All routes that are extremely tough and long enough where E90 is really uneconomical, but A220 would be really economical.
 
speedbird2263
Posts: 172
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2006 11:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:49 am

JetBlue's second A321 NEO was delivered today. Routing XFW-BOS-MCO. Reg N2016J. The third A321N (reg. N2017J) was recently spotted in XFW on Sep 16th heading for paint. 6 total expected for delivery by year end.
Straight'n Up 'N Fly Right Son
 
doulasc
Posts: 846
Joined: Sat Dec 17, 2011 5:12 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 1:33 am

jfklganyc wrote:
Anyone else notice the 321 on JFK ATL?

Yes last June 19 I flew JetBlue from JFK-ATL and the flight was scheduled to be a Airbus A320 but when I got to the gate it was a A321. and arrived ATL 40 minutes early.
 
StinkyPinky
Posts: 25
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:03 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 2:12 am

speedbird2263 wrote:
JetBlue's second A321 NEO was delivered today. Routing XFW-BOS-MCO. Reg N2016J. The third A321N (reg. N2017J) was recently spotted in XFW on Sep 16th heading for paint. 6 total expected for delivery by year end.


Wonder why the reg jumped from N2002JB to N2016JB... any name spotted on it?
 
speedbird2263
Posts: 172
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2006 11:07 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:30 am

StinkyPinky wrote:
speedbird2263 wrote:
JetBlue's second A321 NEO was delivered today. Routing XFW-BOS-MCO. Reg N2016J. The third A321N (reg. N2017J) was recently spotted in XFW on Sep 16th heading for paint. 6 total expected for delivery by year end.


Wonder why the reg jumped from N2002JB to N2016JB... any name spotted on it?


I didn't spot a name but can tell you that B6 has reserved quite a few regs with the FAA, presumably to take them all the way into the A220 deliveries. The info is available online and best I could assume is that the other regs have already been used or taken, which if you look them up that appears to be the case eg. N2003J is listed as an Air Tractor AT-602 etc.
Straight'n Up 'N Fly Right Son
 
tphuang
Posts: 3229
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 2:24 pm

So Q2 fare data is out, so I will be posting more yield data here in the coming days. I thing I did notice with Q2 is how the 162 seat A320s are a lot more prevalent now. And I think the one common theme is that they are widely deployed out of BOS, especially on the more competitive routes. I'm doing the yield and comparing to Q1, Q4 and last Q2. Keep in mind that out of BOS, Q1 is typically a strange quarter where the weaker carrier has a much harder time to fill cabin, so it's more appropriate to compare to Q4 and last Q2.

Here are the mint routes.
the first one to look at is NYC-LAX market. The big change here for B6 is the addition of that 11th flight at a rather obscene arrival hour into LAX and that seems to move their yield down a little relative to DL vs the last few quarters. Seems like DL has gained on this very important route vs both AA/UA in the past 2 years. An indication of both their LAX and NYC hubs getting stronger pricing power. AS yields looks a lot better than Q1 and more like their Q4 numbers. A couple of things, I think B6 could do themselves a lot of good by deploying a much more premium heavy aircraft on this route. At the same time, EWR-LAX would be a good mine. Even if they get 10% lower yield than JFK-LAX, it would still be very profitable.

CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare % NS PerFlight # Flights LF Yield PRASM Vs B6
JFKLAX 2475 AA 183990 621.610 632.240 355.810 96.16% 102.1 1946 92.59% 585.370 0.2365 183.91%
JFKLAX 2475 AS 139728 253.290 252.800 313.500 99.18% 176.0 905 87.74% 221.810 0.0896 69.69%
JFKLAX 2475 B6 273983 347.210 347.250 337.240 99.64% 159.0 1880 91.66% 318.300 0.1286 100.00%
JFKLAX 2475 DL 341169 428.200 426.170 540.480 98.22% 221.3 1688 91.31% 389.140 0.1572 122.26%
EWRLAX 2454 AS 81911 262.330 261.880 307.610 99.02% 177.0 509 90.90% 238.060 0.0970 N/A
EWRLAX 2454 UA 384270 359.950 357.690 512.860 98.54% 200.4 2054 93.36% 333.960 0.1361 N/A


next up is NYC-SFO. This was the weakest performance yet from AA and they already had the lowest market share here with a very high cost aircraft. The gap between B6 and DL has been relatively stable here. Interesting enough, this was the closest gap in yield between both B6/DL and UA/AA for a while. I think this shows the continued strengthening of DL in NYC and UA seems to have not captured much of AA's loss. Maybe B6 is getting a little of the AA business also. AS performance is comparable to Q4 and Q2 of last year.
JFKSFO 2586 AA 73480 577.470 580.020 512.660 96.21% 102.0 821 87.75% 508.940 0.1968 167.84%
JFKSFO 2586 AS 111469 254.970 254.320 306.870 98.77% 176.2 717 88.25% 224.450 0.0868 74.02%
JFKSFO 2586 B6 145796 344.330 344.250 373.720 99.74% 159.0 1041 88.08% 303.230 0.1173 100.00%
JFKSFO 2586 DL 193235 398.610 395.640 535.290 97.87% 170.7 1280 88.42% 349.830 0.1353 115.37%
EWRSFO 2565 AS 78452 251.110 249.890 334.910 98.56% 176.6 496 89.58% 223.840 0.0873 N/A
EWRSFO 2565 UA 479866 420.900 414.330 620.980 96.82% 211.9 2523 89.77% 371.930 0.1450 N/A

next up is BOS-SFO. B6 I think has bee gaining here and they had more flights here than previous quarters which I assume is due to a fuller schedule on weekends. Compared to a year ago, B6 has really gained in market share vs UA. Given that their yield has been really good here, it makes sense to me that they are adding A321 all-core in peak seasons, since there seems to be plenty of demand to support that outside of winter month. And there is plenty of Y cabin demand. Gap between B6 and AS/DL increased by Q2 and Q4 of last year. AS shrunk even further on this route to 2x daily vs last year and still remains to be very uncompetitive here. DL also ran fewer flights with their HD 757 vs a year ago. Overall, I think this route has really turned around vs much of 2017 and early 2018 when the market had trouble absorbing all of UA's capacity. It's interesting this route got higher yield than even JFK-LAX in Q2
BOSSFO 2704 AS 44665 273.360 271.300 341.250 97.06% 152.4 335 87.48% 237.320 0.0878 74.29%
BOSSFO 2704 B6 126364 353.400 353.330 366.370 99.43% 158.8 880 90.42% 319.470 0.1181 100.00%
BOSSFO 2704 DL 46895 286.660 281.770 394.900 95.67% 198.5 273 86.54% 243.830 0.0902 76.32%
BOSSFO 2704 UA 152274 420.420 416.330 545.890 96.84% 153.0 1083 91.87% 382.480 0.1415 119.72%

next up is BOS-LAX. The big change here was AA switching 2 flights to A321T and DL going to all D1 vs a year ago. Looking at the yields, it's pretty obvious why AA dropped A321T so quickly. The numbers are just not there. It would need to be a lot higher than B6 yield to be sustained. Looks like UA cut some flights here. DL seems to do better this quarter than Q1 and Q4. AS didn't do as tragically as Q1, but are still very uncompetitive here.
BOSLAX 2611 AA 136054 287.250 283.600 373.350 95.94% 150.5 989 91.38% 259.160 0.0993 95.88%
BOSLAX 2611 AS 32314 235.460 234.620 289.480 98.46% 158.1 230 88.87% 208.490 0.0799 77.14%
BOSLAX 2611 B6 102219 295.700 295.570 320.110 99.44% 159.0 703 91.45% 270.290 0.1035 100.00%
BOSLAX 2611 DL 70167 301.020 300.660 304.790 91.32% 168.5 453 91.92% 276.360 0.1058 102.24%
BOSLAX 2611 UA 63658 285.120 281.320 352.540 94.67% 169.3 415 90.60% 254.880 0.0976 94.30%

next up is south florida-LAX. The big change here is B6 going to as high as 4x daily on FLL-LAX by the end of the quarter. Keep in mind, they added over 60% capacity vs a year ago here. From that, it's good that their yield has remained at about the same level as AA (probably a lot higher in reality, since AA relies on a lot of connection traffic here). AS retreated further on this route vs a year ago and looks to be quite uncompetitive. So given all of this, it seems like a good idea to keep FLL-LAX at 4x daily and possibly expand further. The additional capacity has not hurt the performance too much.
FLLLAX 2343 AS 31934 245.530 244.880 360.470 99.44% 148.6 235 91.42% 223.870 0.0955 69.78%
FLLLAX 2343 B6 84228 349.140 348.230 541.650 99.53% 159.0 575 92.13% 320.820 0.1369 100.00%
FLLLAX 2343 NK 28705 123.520 123.630 120.700 96.07% 170.4 183 92.07% 113.830 0.0486 35.48%
MIALAX 2342 AA 252341 336.780 332.540 443.610 96.18% 192.4 1359 96.51% 320.940 0.1370 N/A

South Florida-SFO was probably the larget surprise. This was actually the highest yielding mint market for the quarter. I think it was partly due to UA not flying MIA-SFO for the quarter. You can see AA did quite well as a result of that. Seems like an obvious place for B6 to add another flight.
FLLSFO 2584 AS 07337 258.960 251.300 336.010 90.95% 149.3 55 89.36% 224.550 0.0869 68.39%
FLLSFO 2584 B6 52624 357.390 357.150 391.000 99.28% 159.0 360 91.94% 328.350 0.1271 100.00%
FLLSFO 2584 UA 28587 297.900 292.930 340.150 89.49% 168.4 181 93.78% 274.710 0.1063 83.66%
MIASFO 2585 AA 84796 349.320 347.360 370.260 91.42% 167.7 529 95.59% 332.050 0.1285 N/A
 
SyracuseAvGeek
Posts: 473
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:37 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 2:34 pm

StinkyPinky wrote:
speedbird2263 wrote:
JetBlue's second A321 NEO was delivered today. Routing XFW-BOS-MCO. Reg N2016J. The third A321N (reg. N2017J) was recently spotted in XFW on Sep 16th heading for paint. 6 total expected for delivery by year end.


Wonder why the reg jumped from N2002JB to N2016JB... any name spotted on it?


I believe it’s because those two numbers are significant to them. 2016 was the year of either their first A321 delivery or flight (can’t remember which). I don’t remember the event in 2002, but I know there was something
"I haven't been everywhere yet, but it's on my list."
 
flyby519
Posts: 1430
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 3:31 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 2:39 pm

SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
StinkyPinky wrote:
speedbird2263 wrote:
JetBlue's second A321 NEO was delivered today. Routing XFW-BOS-MCO. Reg N2016J. The third A321N (reg. N2017J) was recently spotted in XFW on Sep 16th heading for paint. 6 total expected for delivery by year end.


Wonder why the reg jumped from N2002JB to N2016JB... any name spotted on it?


I believe it’s because those two numbers are significant to them. 2016 was the year of either their first A321 delivery or flight (can’t remember which). I don’t remember the event in 2002, but I know there was something


JBLU IPO?
 
tkoenig95
Posts: 293
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 2:47 pm

I am quite surprised that B6 isn't using the 321 on the JFK route to pick up the slack that AA is dropping. Possibly not 321 ops year round, but during big events on either ends of the markets or seasonal upgauges.
 
sargester
Posts: 166
Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2012 10:29 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:12 pm

tkoenig95 wrote:
I am quite surprised that B6 isn't using the 321 on the JFK route to pick up the slack that AA is dropping. Possibly not 321 ops year round, but during big events on either ends of the markets or seasonal upgauges.


What route
 
tphuang
Posts: 3229
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:39 pm

NYC-SAN has been a pretty steady market the past year. UA is typically getting 10 to 15% higher yield than B6. B6 is 2% higher than DL and AA is quite a bit behind. This quarter, AA stopped flying this route after MAX grounding and their numbers pre-grounding looks terrible. DL might have picked up some of that business, since they got the same yield as B6. Other than that, AS and WN are both very weak and WN is now gone. I don't see how AA can really make it on this route long term.

BOS-SAN seems to be one of the few under served routes out of BOS. Both B6 and AS had very healthy yield here, so the Y prices must have been pretty high. That's probably why B6 added a 3rd flight this year and AS is adding a second one next year. Long term, I see B6 happy with AS's current co-existence here as long as DL doesn't get involved.

NYC-SEA has been quite the bloodbath and AA is basically finally quiting this route. B6 has been able to open up a little bit of a yield gap vs AS. DL is obviously the dominant carrier here. At this yield level, it's a probably a system averag margin route for B6, which is a huge improvement over pre-mint.
JFKSEA 2422 AA 01208 239.380 251.590 237.030 16.11% 184.0 9 72.95% 183.520 0.0758 74.76%
JFKSEA 2422 AS 88483 256.050 255.010 349.910 98.90% 177.1 544 91.83% 234.170 0.0967 95.39%
JFKSEA 2422 B6 47465 282.290 282.050 356.100 99.68% 159.0 343 87.03% 245.470 0.1014 100.00%
JFKSEA 2422 DL 122246 331.530 326.670 488.540 97.00% 179.3 736 92.63% 302.580 0.1249 123.27%
EWRSEA 2402 AS 83246 288.100 286.890 414.370 99.06% 176.6 542 86.95% 249.440 0.1038 N/A
EWRSEA 2402 UA 79799 307.420 302.330 385.770 93.90% 159.4 565 88.59% 267.850 0.1115 N/A

BOS-SEA had been another giant bloodbath the past year that has gotten better in Q2. B6 has almost caught up in yield with DL/AS, whereas they were noticeably behind those 2 in previous quarters. In terms of average fare level, they've actually caught to those 2 carriers exactly. The lower LF is probably from higher connection traffic on the carriers.
BOSSEA 2496 AS 83209 287.290 286.180 377.780 98.78% 169.9 527 92.95% 265.990 0.1066 104.39%
BOSSEA 2496 B6 48759 285.230 284.990 332.970 99.49% 159.0 343 89.41% 254.800 0.1021 100.00%
BOSSEA 2496 DL 58627 292.170 284.570 384.660 92.40% 160.0 396 92.55% 263.360 0.1055 103.36%

JFK-LAS also did quite well this quarter for B6. Again, half of the flights were mint and they were able to shrink the gap in yield vs DL and expand the gap in yield vs AA. I believe they are removing 1 mint flight for the fall months, which to me is a puzzling decision, since the current schedule seems to work pretty well.
JFKLAS 2248 AA 33824 259.200 254.630 271.630 73.11% 166.3 225 90.40% 230.190 0.1024 87.64%
JFKLAS 2248 B6 101308 287.870 287.600 319.820 99.16% 169.1 656 91.33% 262.670 0.1168 100.00%
JFKLAS 2248 DL 145947 318.450 317.040 426.910 98.71% 177.3 884 93.14% 295.280 0.1314 112.42%

BOS-LAS did okay after a rather poor Q1. They were running basically 2x mint + 2x A320 everyday and the yield was about the same as DL after being noticeably under in Q1. They were running an additional flight vs 2018.
BOSLAS 2381 B6 99788 294.320 294.170 340.660 99.69% 158.1 711 88.75% 261.080 0.1097 100.00%
BOSLAS 2381 DL 22575 293.370 293.700 291.800 82.62% 160.0 155 91.04% 267.370 0.1123 102.41%
BOSLAS 2381 NK 26426 101.540 101.060 116.850 96.92% 170.2 179 86.73% 87.650 0.0368 33.57%
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 1528
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 5:11 pm

BOS-SEA is a HUGE improvement for B6. Remember the trash yields they got (even with Mint) compared to AS?
 
tkoenig95
Posts: 293
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:07 pm

sargester wrote:
tkoenig95 wrote:
I am quite surprised that B6 isn't using the 321 on the JFK route to pick up the slack that AA is dropping. Possibly not 321 ops year round, but during big events on either ends of the markets or seasonal upgauges.


What route

Lol screwed that up. JFK-AUS
 
sargester
Posts: 166
Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2012 10:29 pm

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Oct 04, 2019 3:46 am

tkoenig95 wrote:
sargester wrote:
tkoenig95 wrote:
I am quite surprised that B6 isn't using the 321 on the JFK route to pick up the slack that AA is dropping. Possibly not 321 ops year round, but during big events on either ends of the markets or seasonal upgauges.


What route

Lol screwed that up. JFK-AUS


AA beefed up that route recently if I recall to 2x 737 a day
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 3278
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Network Thread - 2019

Fri Oct 04, 2019 10:54 am

tphuang wrote:
NYC-SAN has been a pretty steady market the past year. UA is typically getting 10 to 15% higher yield than B6. B6 is 2% higher than DL and AA is quite a bit behind. This quarter, AA stopped flying this route after MAX grounding and their numbers pre-grounding looks terrible. DL might have picked up some of that business, since they got the same yield as B6. Other than that, AS and WN are both very weak and WN is now gone. I don't see how AA can really make it on this route long term.

BOS-SAN seems to be one of the few under served routes out of BOS. Both B6 and AS had very healthy yield here, so the Y prices must have been pretty high. That's probably why B6 added a 3rd flight this year and AS is adding a second one next year. Long term, I see B6 happy with AS's current co-existence here as long as DL doesn't get involved.

NYC-SEA has been quite the bloodbath and AA is basically finally quiting this route. B6 has been able to open up a little bit of a yield gap vs AS. DL is obviously the dominant carrier here. At this yield level, it's a probably a system averag margin route for B6, which is a huge improvement over pre-mint.
JFKSEA 2422 AA 01208 239.380 251.590 237.030 16.11% 184.0 9 72.95% 183.520 0.0758 74.76%
JFKSEA 2422 AS 88483 256.050 255.010 349.910 98.90% 177.1 544 91.83% 234.170 0.0967 95.39%
JFKSEA 2422 B6 47465 282.290 282.050 356.100 99.68% 159.0 343 87.03% 245.470 0.1014 100.00%
JFKSEA 2422 DL 122246 331.530 326.670 488.540 97.00% 179.3 736 92.63% 302.580 0.1249 123.27%
EWRSEA 2402 AS 83246 288.100 286.890 414.370 99.06% 176.6 542 86.95% 249.440 0.1038 N/A
EWRSEA 2402 UA 79799 307.420 302.330 385.770 93.90% 159.4 565 88.59% 267.850 0.1115 N/A

BOS-SEA had been another giant bloodbath the past year that has gotten better in Q2. B6 has almost caught up in yield with DL/AS, whereas they were noticeably behind those 2 in previous quarters. In terms of average fare level, they've actually caught to those 2 carriers exactly. The lower LF is probably from higher connection traffic on the carriers.
BOSSEA 2496 AS 83209 287.290 286.180 377.780 98.78% 169.9 527 92.95% 265.990 0.1066 104.39%
BOSSEA 2496 B6 48759 285.230 284.990 332.970 99.49% 159.0 343 89.41% 254.800 0.1021 100.00%
BOSSEA 2496 DL 58627 292.170 284.570 384.660 92.40% 160.0 396 92.55% 263.360 0.1055 103.36%

JFK-LAS also did quite well this quarter for B6. Again, half of the flights were mint and they were able to shrink the gap in yield vs DL and expand the gap in yield vs AA. I believe they are removing 1 mint flight for the fall months, which to me is a puzzling decision, since the current schedule seems to work pretty well.
JFKLAS 2248 AA 33824 259.200 254.630 271.630 73.11% 166.3 225 90.40% 230.190 0.1024 87.64%
JFKLAS 2248 B6 101308 287.870 287.600 319.820 99.16% 169.1 656 91.33% 262.670 0.1168 100.00%
JFKLAS 2248 DL 145947 318.450 317.040 426.910 98.71% 177.3 884 93.14% 295.280 0.1314 112.42%

BOS-LAS did okay after a rather poor Q1. They were running basically 2x mint + 2x A320 everyday and the yield was about the same as DL after being noticeably under in Q1. They were running an additional flight vs 2018.
BOSLAS 2381 B6 99788 294.320 294.170 340.660 99.69% 158.1 711 88.75% 261.080 0.1097 100.00%
BOSLAS 2381 DL 22575 293.370 293.700 291.800 82.62% 160.0 155 91.04% 267.370 0.1123 102.41%
BOSLAS 2381 NK 26426 101.540 101.060 116.850 96.92% 170.2 179 86.73% 87.650 0.0368 33.57%


Thanks! I’ll comment more thoroughly later (I’d like to do a comparison to network RASM). Can you post the SAN numbers that you’re referring to?

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