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Fargo
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 01, 2019 2:37 am

tphuang wrote:
Fargo wrote:
tphuang wrote:
guess I wasn't clear there. They are miniscue compared to Delta at ATL and AA at CLT, which would be who they battle against on a lot of midwest/northeast/central to Florida connections. BWI isn't really great for connections to Florida when you originate at MKE or MCI or STL or IND or CMH.


Are you saying WN at BNA needs to get to CLT/ATL levels? Because (I think) WN doesn’t have and has never had a station larger than around 250 flights.


Not that level and I don't think BNA has anywhere near the gate space. But a station of 200+ flights is doable and they can capture some of the connection items that go through UA/AA right now. WN is really strong in southwest (clearly), California, midwest, but it's kind of weak on the east coast. It has the strong hub at BWI, that has to split the same metro area with AA/UA. It's strong in Florida, but not to the level of DL/AA. Having a southeast-ish type of hub at BNA is imo a clear strategic move.


It makes sense for sure. WN will be taking most, if not all of the new D gates under construction, bringing them to 20. I could see them eventually taking all of C and D in another decade after A is redeveloped and expanded. That would bring them to 25 gates (not counting the common use international capable gates that could be used).

No reason BNA can’t become one of WN’s top 5 stations on the same level as MDW, BWI, DEN, LAS, etc.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 01, 2019 2:52 am

Fargo wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Fargo wrote:

Are you saying WN at BNA needs to get to CLT/ATL levels? Because (I think) WN doesn’t have and has never had a station larger than around 250 flights.


Not that level and I don't think BNA has anywhere near the gate space. But a station of 200+ flights is doable and they can capture some of the connection items that go through UA/AA right now. WN is really strong in southwest (clearly), California, midwest, but it's kind of weak on the east coast. It has the strong hub at BWI, that has to split the same metro area with AA/UA. It's strong in Florida, but not to the level of DL/AA. Having a southeast-ish type of hub at BNA is imo a clear strategic move.


It makes sense for sure. WN will be taking most, if not all of the new D gates under construction, bringing them to 20. I could see them eventually taking all of C and D in another decade after A is redeveloped and expanded. That would bring them to 25 gates (not counting the common use international capable gates that could be used).

No reason BNA can’t become one of WN’s top 5 stations on the same level as MDW, BWI, DEN, LAS, etc.


They’re getting all of D, and might be giving back C13 and C14 to AA since their losing C2, C3 for the new IAB. BNA doesn’t need 6 international gates, and I’m thinking at least 4 will be common use between AA, DL, and potential new carriers.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
Fargo
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 01, 2019 3:08 am

southwest1675 wrote:
Fargo wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Not that level and I don't think BNA has anywhere near the gate space. But a station of 200+ flights is doable and they can capture some of the connection items that go through UA/AA right now. WN is really strong in southwest (clearly), California, midwest, but it's kind of weak on the east coast. It has the strong hub at BWI, that has to split the same metro area with AA/UA. It's strong in Florida, but not to the level of DL/AA. Having a southeast-ish type of hub at BNA is imo a clear strategic move.


It makes sense for sure. WN will be taking most, if not all of the new D gates under construction, bringing them to 20. I could see them eventually taking all of C and D in another decade after A is redeveloped and expanded. That would bring them to 25 gates (not counting the common use international capable gates that could be used).

No reason BNA can’t become one of WN’s top 5 stations on the same level as MDW, BWI, DEN, LAS, etc.


They’re getting all of D, and might be giving back C13 and C14 to AA since their losing C2, C3 for the new IAB. BNA doesn’t need 6 international gates, and I’m thinking at least 4 will be common use between AA, DL, and potential new carriers.


But once A is redeveloped after BNA vision is done, would it not make sense for all the legacies and ULCC’s to consolidate in A/B while WN takes all of C/D?
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 01, 2019 3:14 am

Fargo wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Fargo wrote:

It makes sense for sure. WN will be taking most, if not all of the new D gates under construction, bringing them to 20. I could see them eventually taking all of C and D in another decade after A is redeveloped and expanded. That would bring them to 25 gates (not counting the common use international capable gates that could be used).

No reason BNA can’t become one of WN’s top 5 stations on the same level as MDW, BWI, DEN, LAS, etc.


They’re getting all of D, and might be giving back C13 and C14 to AA since their losing C2, C3 for the new IAB. BNA doesn’t need 6 international gates, and I’m thinking at least 4 will be common use between AA, DL, and potential new carriers.


But once A is redeveloped after BNA vision is done, would it not make sense for all the legacies and ULCC’s to consolidate in A/B while WN takes all of C/D?


That’s something we could probably see within the decade. The master plan post BNA Vision had proposals released, and a new A concourse will come. I’m curious to see what it’s all gonna look like. The WN crew base could be announced any day now
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
Fargo
Posts: 810
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 01, 2019 3:17 am

southwest1675 wrote:
Fargo wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:

They’re getting all of D, and might be giving back C13 and C14 to AA since their losing C2, C3 for the new IAB. BNA doesn’t need 6 international gates, and I’m thinking at least 4 will be common use between AA, DL, and potential new carriers.


But once A is redeveloped after BNA vision is done, would it not make sense for all the legacies and ULCC’s to consolidate in A/B while WN takes all of C/D?


That’s something we could probably see within the decade. The master plan post BNA Vision had proposals released, and a new A concourse will come. I’m curious to see what it’s all gonna look like. The WN crew base could be announced any day now


They are announcing a new crew base for WN at BNA? If so, is it moving from ATL or will it be a new one?
 
ericm2031
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:03 am

Fargo wrote:
Someone posted in the Denver thread that rumor has it WN wants to make DEN its second largest station. Any truth to this?


Wouldn't be surprised for it to become their biggest station once the new gates are completed, unless they decide to make MCI a focus once the new terminal is built.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:13 am

DEN by 2020/2021 will eventually become it's Largest station.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
tphuang
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 01, 2019 12:49 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
Fargo wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Not that level and I don't think BNA has anywhere near the gate space. But a station of 200+ flights is doable and they can capture some of the connection items that go through UA/AA right now. WN is really strong in southwest (clearly), California, midwest, but it's kind of weak on the east coast. It has the strong hub at BWI, that has to split the same metro area with AA/UA. It's strong in Florida, but not to the level of DL/AA. Having a southeast-ish type of hub at BNA is imo a clear strategic move.


It makes sense for sure. WN will be taking most, if not all of the new D gates under construction, bringing them to 20. I could see them eventually taking all of C and D in another decade after A is redeveloped and expanded. That would bring them to 25 gates (not counting the common use international capable gates that could be used).

No reason BNA can’t become one of WN’s top 5 stations on the same level as MDW, BWI, DEN, LAS, etc.


They’re getting all of D, and might be giving back C13 and C14 to AA since their losing C2, C3 for the new IAB. BNA doesn’t need 6 international gates, and I’m thinking at least 4 will be common use between AA, DL, and potential new carriers.


I could see WN moving some of the Caribbean stuff that is mostly US point of sale from FLL to BNA like year round MBJ, PUJ, multiple daily CUN,
 
ctrabs0114
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:24 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
Fargo wrote:
Someone posted in the Denver thread that rumor has it WN wants to make DEN its second largest station. Any truth to this?


Wouldn't be surprised for [DEN] to become their biggest station once the new gates are completed, unless they decide to make MCI a focus once the new terminal is built.


wnflyguy wrote:
DEN by 2020/2021 will eventually become it's Largest station.

Flyguy


As of 15MAR19, these are WN's six largest stations (per fact sheets at swamedia.com), with number of departures as of June 2018:

MDW: 250 (69 destinations) currently; 225 (63 destinations) in June 2018
BWI: 225 (66 destinations) currently; 209 (61 destinations) in June 2018
DEN: 224 (69 destinations) currently; 203 (64 destinations) in June 2018
LAS: 224 (55 destinations) currently; 204 (55 destinations) in June 2018
DAL: 195 (64 destinations) currently; 180 (55 destinations) in June 2018
PHX: 194 (52 destinations) currently; 183 (52 destinations) in June 2018

IIRC, WN is maxed out as far as gate space at MDW and they might be pretty close at BWI, if they're not maxed out yet (though, they are supposed to get new gates in A concourse). DEN might end up as WN's largest station sooner rather than later.
2019: DAL, MCI, PHX, LAS, DFW, SAT, ORD, SLC, SEA, DTW; B73G (WN x3), B738 (WN, AA, DL), A20N (NK), MD83 (AA), B788 (AA x2), CS1 (DL), 739 (DL), 712 (DL)
Next: AA: DFW-PHL (752), PHL-MIA (763), MIA-LAX (77W), LAX-DFW (789)
 
Fargo
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 2:53 am

tphuang wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Fargo wrote:

It makes sense for sure. WN will be taking most, if not all of the new D gates under construction, bringing them to 20. I could see them eventually taking all of C and D in another decade after A is redeveloped and expanded. That would bring them to 25 gates (not counting the common use international capable gates that could be used).

No reason BNA can’t become one of WN’s top 5 stations on the same level as MDW, BWI, DEN, LAS, etc.


They’re getting all of D, and might be giving back C13 and C14 to AA since their losing C2, C3 for the new IAB. BNA doesn’t need 6 international gates, and I’m thinking at least 4 will be common use between AA, DL, and potential new carriers.


I could see WN moving some of the Caribbean stuff that is mostly US point of sale from FLL to BNA like year round MBJ, PUJ, multiple daily CUN,


How? Does BNA have market demand to those destinations? Also, didn’t they just build a new international terminal at FLL for Latin America flights?
 
Fargo
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 2:55 am

ctrabs0114 wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
Fargo wrote:
Someone posted in the Denver thread that rumor has it WN wants to make DEN its second largest station. Any truth to this?


Wouldn't be surprised for [DEN] to become their biggest station once the new gates are completed, unless they decide to make MCI a focus once the new terminal is built.


wnflyguy wrote:
DEN by 2020/2021 will eventually become it's Largest station.

Flyguy


As of 15MAR19, these are WN's six largest stations (per fact sheets at swamedia.com), with number of departures as of June 2018:

MDW: 250 (69 destinations) currently; 225 (63 destinations) in June 2018
BWI: 225 (66 destinations) currently; 209 (61 destinations) in June 2018
DEN: 224 (69 destinations) currently; 203 (64 destinations) in June 2018
LAS: 224 (55 destinations) currently; 204 (55 destinations) in June 2018
DAL: 195 (64 destinations) currently; 180 (55 destinations) in June 2018
PHX: 194 (52 destinations) currently; 183 (52 destinations) in June 2018

IIRC, WN is maxed out as far as gate space at MDW and they might be pretty close at BWI, if they're not maxed out yet (though, they are supposed to get new gates in A concourse). DEN might end up as WN's largest station sooner rather than later.


How many gates will WN have at DEN when the expansion all said and done?

I am surprised WN is so successful at DEN despite competing against a huge UA hub that could be to CLT levels in a few years time.
Last edited by Fargo on Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Jshank83
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 2:57 am

Fargo wrote:
tphuang wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:

They’re getting all of D, and might be giving back C13 and C14 to AA since their losing C2, C3 for the new IAB. BNA doesn’t need 6 international gates, and I’m thinking at least 4 will be common use between AA, DL, and potential new carriers.


I could see WN moving some of the Caribbean stuff that is mostly US point of sale from FLL to BNA like year round MBJ, PUJ, multiple daily CUN,


How? Does BNA have market demand to those destinations? Also, didn’t they just build a new international terminal at FLL for Latin America flights?


BNA doesn't even have year round service to CUN now (and when they do it is once a week). Let's not just jump up to them having multiple daily to CUN and year round other Intl destinations. I could see CUN going year round and others coming seasonally but I doubt they get a bunch of year round ones for awhile. I don't see WN moving anything from FLL, I would imagine they will add more flights to FLL to help feed things.
 
Fargo
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:04 am

Jshank83 wrote:
Fargo wrote:
tphuang wrote:

I could see WN moving some of the Caribbean stuff that is mostly US point of sale from FLL to BNA like year round MBJ, PUJ, multiple daily CUN,


How? Does BNA have market demand to those destinations? Also, didn’t they just build a new international terminal at FLL for Latin America flights?


BNA doesn't even have year round service to CUN now (and when they do it is once a week). Let's not just jump up to them having multiple daily to CUN and year round other Intl destinations. I could see CUN going year round and others coming seasonally but I doubt they get a bunch of year round ones for awhile. I don't see WN moving anything from FLL, I would imagine they will add more flights to FLL to help feed things.


That’s what I was getting at as well. I can’t see a lot of WN international at BNA either, even if it becomes an operating base with close to 200 flights. I could see one other Caribbean like SJO, but that’s it.
 
DaCubbyBearBar
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:07 am

Fargo wrote:
ctrabs0114 wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:

Wouldn't be surprised for [DEN] to become their biggest station once the new gates are completed, unless they decide to make MCI a focus once the new terminal is built.


wnflyguy wrote:
DEN by 2020/2021 will eventually become it's Largest station.

Flyguy


As of 15MAR19, these are WN's six largest stations (per fact sheets at swamedia.com), with number of departures as of June 2018:

MDW: 250 (69 destinations) currently; 225 (63 destinations) in June 2018
BWI: 225 (66 destinations) currently; 209 (61 destinations) in June 2018
DEN: 224 (69 destinations) currently; 203 (64 destinations) in June 2018
LAS: 224 (55 destinations) currently; 204 (55 destinations) in June 2018
DAL: 195 (64 destinations) currently; 180 (55 destinations) in June 2018
PHX: 194 (52 destinations) currently; 183 (52 destinations) in June 2018

IIRC, WN is maxed out as far as gate space at MDW and they might be pretty close at BWI, if they're not maxed out yet (though, they are supposed to get new gates in A concourse). DEN might end up as WN's largest station sooner rather than later.


How many gates will WN have at DEN when the expansion all said and done?

I am surprised WN is so successful at DEN despite competing against a huge UA hub that could be to CLT levels in a few years time.

It appears that WN has 25 gates in DEN right now, with the airport adding 16 gates to the C Concourse. There is no breakdown on how those will be split up that I can find. Just an uneducated guess would be WN getting 8/10 with others picking the rest or CUTE gates.
Go Cubs Go Hey Chicago whaddya say the Cubs are gonna win today
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:19 am

BNA/STL at close to 200 daily departures isn't far fetched. I just don't think ATL will be a long term thing for them. They'll probably cut Atlanta down to the WN basics like LAS/PHX, Florida, and MDW/BWI, e.t.c.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
WN732
Posts: 527
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2011 12:49 am

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 3:30 am

southwest1675 wrote:
BNA/STL at close to 200 daily departures isn't far fetched. I just don't think ATL will be a long term thing for them. They'll probably cut Atlanta down to the WN basics like LAS/PHX, Florida, and MDW/BWI, e.t.c.


Nah man, those ATL gates are worth a lot. ATL may not be their best station but it's no dud either. They do pretty well in Atlanta. There was definitely some right sizing to be done there though. Any void they create could be filled in with NK and F9. They definitely don't want that.
 
ctrabs0114
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Joined: Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:09 am

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 7:16 am

Fargo wrote:
ctrabs0114 wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:

Wouldn't be surprised for [DEN] to become their biggest station once the new gates are completed, unless they decide to make MCI a focus once the new terminal is built.


wnflyguy wrote:
DEN by 2020/2021 will eventually become it's Largest station.

Flyguy


As of 15MAR19, these are WN's six largest stations (per fact sheets at swamedia.com), with number of departures as of June 2018:

MDW: 250 (69 destinations) currently; 225 (63 destinations) in June 2018
BWI: 225 (66 destinations) currently; 209 (61 destinations) in June 2018
DEN: 224 (69 destinations) currently; 203 (64 destinations) in June 2018
LAS: 224 (55 destinations) currently; 204 (55 destinations) in June 2018
DAL: 195 (64 destinations) currently; 180 (55 destinations) in June 2018
PHX: 194 (52 destinations) currently; 183 (52 destinations) in June 2018

IIRC, WN is maxed out as far as gate space at MDW and they might be pretty close at BWI, if they're not maxed out yet (though, they are supposed to get new gates in A concourse). DEN might end up as WN's largest station sooner rather than later.


How many gates will WN have at DEN when the expansion all said and done?

I am surprised WN is so successful at DEN despite competing against a huge UA hub that could be to CLT levels in a few years time.


Was WN growth at DEN pre- or post-UA/CO merger? I’m not as well versed with the history of post-Stapleton DEN, but I agree that WN seems to have had better success at western competing hubs such as DEN (UA) and PHX (AA) than at, say, ATL (DL).
2019: DAL, MCI, PHX, LAS, DFW, SAT, ORD, SLC, SEA, DTW; B73G (WN x3), B738 (WN, AA, DL), A20N (NK), MD83 (AA), B788 (AA x2), CS1 (DL), 739 (DL), 712 (DL)
Next: AA: DFW-PHL (752), PHL-MIA (763), MIA-LAX (77W), LAX-DFW (789)
 
Fargo
Posts: 810
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:00 am

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 10:14 am

ctrabs0114 wrote:
Fargo wrote:
ctrabs0114 wrote:



As of 15MAR19, these are WN's six largest stations (per fact sheets at swamedia.com), with number of departures as of June 2018:

MDW: 250 (69 destinations) currently; 225 (63 destinations) in June 2018
BWI: 225 (66 destinations) currently; 209 (61 destinations) in June 2018
DEN: 224 (69 destinations) currently; 203 (64 destinations) in June 2018
LAS: 224 (55 destinations) currently; 204 (55 destinations) in June 2018
DAL: 195 (64 destinations) currently; 180 (55 destinations) in June 2018
PHX: 194 (52 destinations) currently; 183 (52 destinations) in June 2018

IIRC, WN is maxed out as far as gate space at MDW and they might be pretty close at BWI, if they're not maxed out yet (though, they are supposed to get new gates in A concourse). DEN might end up as WN's largest station sooner rather than later.


How many gates will WN have at DEN when the expansion all said and done?

I am surprised WN is so successful at DEN despite competing against a huge UA hub that could be to CLT levels in a few years time.


Was WN growth at DEN pre- or post-UA/CO merger? I’m not as well versed with the history of post-Stapleton DEN, but I agree that WN seems to have had better success at western competing hubs such as DEN (UA) and PHX (AA) than at, say, ATL (DL).


It started around 2005-2006ish I believe.
 
wnflyguy
Posts: 1670
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:30 pm

DaCubbyBearBar wrote:
Fargo wrote:
ctrabs0114 wrote:



As of 15MAR19, these are WN's six largest stations (per fact sheets at swamedia.com), with number of departures as of June 2018:

MDW: 250 (69 destinations) currently; 225 (63 destinations) in June 2018
BWI: 225 (66 destinations) currently; 209 (61 destinations) in June 2018
DEN: 224 (69 destinations) currently; 203 (64 destinations) in June 2018
LAS: 224 (55 destinations) currently; 204 (55 destinations) in June 2018
DAL: 195 (64 destinations) currently; 180 (55 destinations) in June 2018
PHX: 194 (52 destinations) currently; 183 (52 destinations) in June 2018

IIRC, WN is maxed out as far as gate space at MDW and they might be pretty close at BWI, if they're not maxed out yet (though, they are supposed to get new gates in A concourse). DEN might end up as WN's largest station sooner rather than later.


How many gates will WN have at DEN when the expansion all said and done?

I am surprised WN is so successful at DEN despite competing against a huge UA hub that could be to CLT levels in a few years time.

It appears that WN has 25 gates in DEN right now, with the airport adding 16 gates to the C Concourse. There is no breakdown on how those will be split up that I can find. Just an uneducated guess would be WN getting 8/10 with others picking the rest or CUTE gates.


DEN moving everyone from A to the C gates to free up space for Frontier growth at DEN.
WN getting only getting 4 gates. The remaining 12 going to AlaskaAir 2, Spirit 7 JetBlue 1,Allegiant 1 and Sun Country 1.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2977
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:50 pm

Fargo wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
Fargo wrote:

How? Does BNA have market demand to those destinations? Also, didn’t they just build a new international terminal at FLL for Latin America flights?


BNA doesn't even have year round service to CUN now (and when they do it is once a week). Let's not just jump up to them having multiple daily to CUN and year round other Intl destinations. I could see CUN going year round and others coming seasonally but I doubt they get a bunch of year round ones for awhile. I don't see WN moving anything from FLL, I would imagine they will add more flights to FLL to help feed things.


That’s what I was getting at as well. I can’t see a lot of WN international at BNA either, even if it becomes an operating base with close to 200 flights. I could see one other Caribbean like SJO, but that’s it.


That's my prediction. We will see how things turn out.

As for demand, that's why I said on routes that are dominated US point of sale like CUN/PUJ/MBJ.

WN is getting 35% LF on some month on FLL-CUN this past year. And it's cutting North East to FLL routes left and right. This kind of service that are more leisure based need feed to be sustained. BNA is getting all these adds now that will make it far better fed for leisure destinations. After all, how much demand are there for ECP/PEN/JAX out of BNA? Yet, WN has 2 to 3 flights a day to each of these destinations.

WN has made it clear with moves this year that BNA is the focus in the region and FLL is not. It really depends on how much gate access WN can get at BNA and it's long term ambition there.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 2772
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:19 pm

tphuang wrote:
Fargo wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:

BNA doesn't even have year round service to CUN now (and when they do it is once a week). Let's not just jump up to them having multiple daily to CUN and year round other Intl destinations. I could see CUN going year round and others coming seasonally but I doubt they get a bunch of year round ones for awhile. I don't see WN moving anything from FLL, I would imagine they will add more flights to FLL to help feed things.


That’s what I was getting at as well. I can’t see a lot of WN international at BNA either, even if it becomes an operating base with close to 200 flights. I could see one other Caribbean like SJO, but that’s it.


That's my prediction. We will see how things turn out.

As for demand, that's why I said on routes that are dominated US point of sale like CUN/PUJ/MBJ.

WN is getting 35% LF on some month on FLL-CUN this past year. And it's cutting North East to FLL routes left and right. This kind of service that are more leisure based need feed to be sustained. BNA is getting all these adds now that will make it far better fed for leisure destinations. After all, how much demand are there for ECP/PEN/JAX out of BNA? Yet, WN has 2 to 3 flights a day to each of these destinations.

WN has made it clear with moves this year that BNA is the focus in the region and FLL is not. It really depends on how much gate access WN can get at BNA and it's long term ambition there.


CEP/PNS/JAX use BNA as their connecting hub, like LIT/DSM/ICT/TUL use STL, GRR/CVG uses MDW, etc. Not a ton of demand between the two but WN funnels them thru it. I guess they could do CUN like that but I would think there needs to be decent O&D to start. Not saying it doesn't have it but it is different.

I also though FLL was being downsized just temp cause of the runway issues.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2977
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:26 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Fargo wrote:

That’s what I was getting at as well. I can’t see a lot of WN international at BNA either, even if it becomes an operating base with close to 200 flights. I could see one other Caribbean like SJO, but that’s it.


That's my prediction. We will see how things turn out.

As for demand, that's why I said on routes that are dominated US point of sale like CUN/PUJ/MBJ.

WN is getting 35% LF on some month on FLL-CUN this past year. And it's cutting North East to FLL routes left and right. This kind of service that are more leisure based need feed to be sustained. BNA is getting all these adds now that will make it far better fed for leisure destinations. After all, how much demand are there for ECP/PEN/JAX out of BNA? Yet, WN has 2 to 3 flights a day to each of these destinations.

WN has made it clear with moves this year that BNA is the focus in the region and FLL is not. It really depends on how much gate access WN can get at BNA and it's long term ambition there.



CEP/PNS/JAX use BNA as their connecting hub, like LIT/DSM/ICT/TUL use STL, GRR/CVG uses MDW, etc. Not a ton of demand between the two but WN funnels them thru it. I guess they could do CUN like that but I would think there needs to be decent O&D to start. Not saying it doesn't have it but it is different.

I also though FLL was being downsized just temp cause of the runway issues.


Just took a look at the whole year we have data for, CUN-FLL has LF of 50% through September. I don't see how that couldn't get better if moved to BNA.

FLL is getting downsized because it's an under performing station. Neither B6 or NK downsized during summer.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:27 pm

tphuang wrote:
Fargo wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:

BNA doesn't even have year round service to CUN now (and when they do it is once a week). Let's not just jump up to them having multiple daily to CUN and year round other Intl destinations. I could see CUN going year round and others coming seasonally but I doubt they get a bunch of year round ones for awhile. I don't see WN moving anything from FLL, I would imagine they will add more flights to FLL to help feed things.


That’s what I was getting at as well. I can’t see a lot of WN international at BNA either, even if it becomes an operating base with close to 200 flights. I could see one other Caribbean like SJO, but that’s it.


That's my prediction. We will see how things turn out.

As for demand, that's why I said on routes that are dominated US point of sale like CUN/PUJ/MBJ.

WN is getting 35% LF on some month on FLL-CUN this past year. And it's cutting North East to FLL routes left and right. This kind of service that are more leisure based need feed to be sustained. BNA is getting all these adds now that will make it far better fed for leisure destinations. After all, how much demand are there for ECP/PEN/JAX out of BNA? Yet, WN has 2 to 3 flights a day to each of these destinations.

WN has made it clear with moves this year that BNA is the focus in the region and FLL is not. It really depends on how much gate access WN can get at BNA and it's long term ambition there.


There are still some more domestic nonstop routes such as FLL-CVG, FLL-SDF, FLL-MEM, FLL-ORF, and FLL-OMA that could be added by WN out of FLL, and neither NK nor B6 currently serve CVG, SDF, MEM, ORF, or OMA.

While B6 currently serves SAN nonstop from FLL, WN could add FLL-SAN nonstop service in order to defend against AS or NK possibly adding FLL-SAN nonstop service.

Even though SFO is already served nonstop from the MIA/FLL market on AS, AA, B6, and UA, WN could add FLL-OAK nonstop service in order to better compete against AS in the San Francisco Bay Area market.

WN had also said that it was considering adding FLL-CLE nonstop service back in October 2017, even though FLL already has nonstop service to CLE on B6, NK, and UA.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:33 pm

tphuang wrote:
Fargo wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:

BNA doesn't even have year round service to CUN now (and when they do it is once a week). Let's not just jump up to them having multiple daily to CUN and year round other Intl destinations. I could see CUN going year round and others coming seasonally but I doubt they get a bunch of year round ones for awhile. I don't see WN moving anything from FLL, I would imagine they will add more flights to FLL to help feed things.


That’s what I was getting at as well. I can’t see a lot of WN international at BNA either, even if it becomes an operating base with close to 200 flights. I could see one other Caribbean like SJO, but that’s it.


That's my prediction. We will see how things turn out.

As for demand, that's why I said on routes that are dominated US point of sale like CUN/PUJ/MBJ.

WN is getting 35% LF on some month on FLL-CUN this past year. And it's cutting North East to FLL routes left and right. This kind of service that are more leisure based need feed to be sustained. BNA is getting all these adds now that will make it far better fed for leisure destinations. After all, how much demand are there for ECP/PEN/JAX out of BNA? Yet, WN has 2 to 3 flights a day to each of these destinations.

WN has made it clear with moves this year that BNA is the focus in the region and FLL is not. It really depends on how much gate access WN can get at BNA and it's long term ambition there.


WN already said It's holding growth at FLL due to the impact of ATC flow issues until the Runway is redone.
Summer 2020 will see growth return to FLL.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
tphuang
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:41 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Fargo wrote:

That’s what I was getting at as well. I can’t see a lot of WN international at BNA either, even if it becomes an operating base with close to 200 flights. I could see one other Caribbean like SJO, but that’s it.


That's my prediction. We will see how things turn out.

As for demand, that's why I said on routes that are dominated US point of sale like CUN/PUJ/MBJ.

WN is getting 35% LF on some month on FLL-CUN this past year. And it's cutting North East to FLL routes left and right. This kind of service that are more leisure based need feed to be sustained. BNA is getting all these adds now that will make it far better fed for leisure destinations. After all, how much demand are there for ECP/PEN/JAX out of BNA? Yet, WN has 2 to 3 flights a day to each of these destinations.

WN has made it clear with moves this year that BNA is the focus in the region and FLL is not. It really depends on how much gate access WN can get at BNA and it's long term ambition there.


WN already said It's holding growth at FLL due to the impact of ATC flow issues until the Runway is redone.
Summer 2020 will see growth return to FLL.

Flyguy


There is a thread right now with the LF from various WN international routes. You can see how well FLL is doing on those. Amongst domestic routes, imo the following are all on the chopping block on top of the ones we've already seen them gone sat only and cut off so far this year out of Northeast.
JAX
MCO
SJU
DCA
 
Fargo
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 2:25 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
DaCubbyBearBar wrote:
Fargo wrote:

How many gates will WN have at DEN when the expansion all said and done?

I am surprised WN is so successful at DEN despite competing against a huge UA hub that could be to CLT levels in a few years time.

It appears that WN has 25 gates in DEN right now, with the airport adding 16 gates to the C Concourse. There is no breakdown on how those will be split up that I can find. Just an uneducated guess would be WN getting 8/10 with others picking the rest or CUTE gates.


DEN moving everyone from A to the C gates to free up space for Frontier growth at DEN.
WN getting only getting 4 gates. The remaining 12 going to AlaskaAir 2, Spirit 7 JetBlue 1,Allegiant 1 and Sun Country 1.

Flyguy


This is surprising. Why not move all the nonhub carriers who have almost exclusively O&D to A while leaving B and C for connecting ops like UA/WN/F9?
 
heretothere
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 2:43 pm

tphuang wrote:
Fargo wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:

BNA doesn't even have year round service to CUN now (and when they do it is once a week). Let's not just jump up to them having multiple daily to CUN and year round other Intl destinations. I could see CUN going year round and others coming seasonally but I doubt they get a bunch of year round ones for awhile. I don't see WN moving anything from FLL, I would imagine they will add more flights to FLL to help feed things.


That’s what I was getting at as well. I can’t see a lot of WN international at BNA either, even if it becomes an operating base with close to 200 flights. I could see one other Caribbean like SJO, but that’s it.


That's my prediction. We will see how things turn out.

As for demand, that's why I said on routes that are dominated US point of sale like CUN/PUJ/MBJ.

WN is getting 35% LF on some month on FLL-CUN this past year. And it's cutting North East to FLL routes left and right. This kind of service that are more leisure based need feed to be sustained. BNA is getting all these adds now that will make it far better fed for leisure destinations. After all, how much demand are there for ECP/PEN/JAX out of BNA? Yet, WN has 2 to 3 flights a day to each of these destinations.

WN has made it clear with moves this year that BNA is the focus in the region and FLL is not. It really depends on how much gate access WN can get at BNA and it's long term ambition there.


BNA is 800 miles away from FLL and in the central time zone. That is a very broad definition of region.

wnflyguy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Fargo wrote:

That’s what I was getting at as well. I can’t see a lot of WN international at BNA either, even if it becomes an operating base with close to 200 flights. I could see one other Caribbean like SJO, but that’s it.


That's my prediction. We will see how things turn out.

As for demand, that's why I said on routes that are dominated US point of sale like CUN/PUJ/MBJ.

WN is getting 35% LF on some month on FLL-CUN this past year. And it's cutting North East to FLL routes left and right. This kind of service that are more leisure based need feed to be sustained. BNA is getting all these adds now that will make it far better fed for leisure destinations. After all, how much demand are there for ECP/PEN/JAX out of BNA? Yet, WN has 2 to 3 flights a day to each of these destinations.

WN has made it clear with moves this year that BNA is the focus in the region and FLL is not. It really depends on how much gate access WN can get at BNA and it's long term ambition there.


WN already said It's holding growth at FLL due to the impact of ATC flow issues until the Runway is redone.
Summer 2020 will see growth return to FLL.

Flyguy


Please show us where WN said this. They aren’t just holding back on growth, they are shrinking at FLL this summer while B6/NK are not. Seems like a questionable decision to cut if they truly want to grow there.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 8:00 pm

WN has never done much with timing connections at FLL. It seems they could enhance those loads a bit on both ends if they did. And yet they seem to be counting on connections at BNA.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 8:14 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
WN has never done much with timing connections at FLL. It seems they could enhance those loads a bit on both ends if they did. And yet they seem to be counting on connections at BNA.


One big difference between BNA and FLL is that WN has no daily nonstop service to any international destinations out of BNA whereas WN currently has daily nonstop service to 11 international destinations from FLL. WN's Saturday-only BNA-CUN nonstop service is currently the only international nonstop service out of BNA on WN.

WN could also add nonstop service to additional international destinations out of MCO, and there are some domestic destinations that WN serves nonstop from MCO but not from FLL or BNA.
 
canyonblue17
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 8:51 pm

tphuang wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
tphuang wrote:

That's my prediction. We will see how things turn out.

As for demand, that's why I said on routes that are dominated US point of sale like CUN/PUJ/MBJ.

WN is getting 35% LF on some month on FLL-CUN this past year. And it's cutting North East to FLL routes left and right. This kind of service that are more leisure based need feed to be sustained. BNA is getting all these adds now that will make it far better fed for leisure destinations. After all, how much demand are there for ECP/PEN/JAX out of BNA? Yet, WN has 2 to 3 flights a day to each of these destinations.

WN has made it clear with moves this year that BNA is the focus in the region and FLL is not. It really depends on how much gate access WN can get at BNA and it's long term ambition there.


WN already said It's holding growth at FLL due to the impact of ATC flow issues until the Runway is redone.
Summer 2020 will see growth return to FLL.

Flyguy


There is a thread right now with the LF from various WN international routes. You can see how well FLL is doing on those. Amongst domestic routes, imo the following are all on the chopping block on top of the ones we've already seen them gone sat only and cut off so far this year out of Northeast.
JAX
MCO
SJU
DCA


JAX had been cut and was then brought back - so I doubt it
MCO is a huge feed for cruise ships and had also previously been reduced/cut then brought back - so I doubt it
SJU does very well - was on a pair of packed flights the other day on this route - so I doubt it
DCA - Only if they have a more effective destination to move that slot to - so I doubt it
negative ghostrider the pattern is full
 
tphuang
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue Apr 02, 2019 9:46 pm

canyonblue17 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:

WN already said It's holding growth at FLL due to the impact of ATC flow issues until the Runway is redone.
Summer 2020 will see growth return to FLL.

Flyguy


There is a thread right now with the LF from various WN international routes. You can see how well FLL is doing on those. Amongst domestic routes, imo the following are all on the chopping block on top of the ones we've already seen them gone sat only and cut off so far this year out of Northeast.
JAX
MCO
SJU
DCA


JAX had been cut and was then brought back - so I doubt it
MCO is a huge feed for cruise ships and had also previously been reduced/cut then brought back - so I doubt it
SJU does very well - was on a pair of packed flights the other day on this route - so I doubt it
DCA - Only if they have a more effective destination to move that slot to - so I doubt it


FLL-JAX is the 2nd worst domestic route in WN's entire network in terms of margins based on Q1-3 2018 data that's running daily. They've already cut the only route (PDX-SFO) that's worse than it. It's already lost 1 frequency since last year, this is as sure bet of being canned as there is in their entire network.

FLL-MCO is running as one of the top 15 worst and that's even with my calculation assuming connection stuff yielding as highly as O&D stuff, which I'm sure isn't the case. It's lost a flight already since launching. Can't see this lasting once brightline is connected to MCO.

FLL-SJU by my calculation is the 6th worst domestic route in WN's entire network in terms of total amount of money lost this year. Amongst the 5 worst, LAX-SJC/OAK/SFO are all routes they will never back off. PDX-SFO they've already canned. BOS-ATL they are down to 1 flight now and will probably can pretty soon. And FLL-SJU has worse margins than LAX-SJC/OAK/SFO.

FLL-DCA does a little better than other 3, but it has pretty bad margins and I have to think there are better places to use those precious DCA slots. In Sep/Oct, they reduced both FLL/MCO-DCA to once a day. Not great signs for their viability.

WN pretty actively trims/cuts stuff that don't work. Based on their willingness to cut EWR/IAD and a bunch fo secondary north east routes out of FLL, they are definitely willing to cut stuff that don't work out of FLL.

Remember, I was saying WN would cut EWR-FLL/MCO over a year before they did it.
 
jplatts
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Wed Apr 03, 2019 1:11 am

tphuang wrote:
FLL-DCA does a little better than other 3, but it has pretty bad margins and I have to think there are better places to use those precious DCA slots. In Sep/Oct, they reduced both FLL/MCO-DCA to once a day. Not great signs for their viability.


WN is actually bigger in the Baltimore/DC market by number of domestic passengers per year than in any other market, and DCA is also a larger WN station than some of the other domestic WN stations that currently have daily nonstop service to FLL on WN.

I can understand WN hanging onto FLL-DCA nonstop service since (a) WN has a large presence in the Baltimore/DC market and (b) WN wants to hold onto the slots currently used on its FLL-DCA nonstops.
 
midway7
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 06, 2019 12:22 pm

I am surprised WN is so successful at DEN despite competing against a huge UA hub that could be to CLT levels in a few years time.[/quote]


A lot of the growth in DEN has to due with their local economy exploding, creating much more O&D traffic than even a decade ago. With the UA downsizing and F9 pulling out, and the economic growth to follow, there was a lot for the taking, and still is.

With the terrific local economy, the geographic location, and the exceptional airfield set up, DEN has a lot to offer both UA and WN as a major station.
 
midway7
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 06, 2019 12:25 pm

DEN moving everyone from A to the C gates to free up space for Frontier growth at DEN.
WN getting only getting 4 gates. The remaining 12 going to AlaskaAir 2, Spirit 7 JetBlue 1,Allegiant 1 and Sun Country 1.

Flyguy[/quote]


Kind of an unwinding of what they did previously, by trying to move everyone to A.

Spirit with 7 gates is interesting. Couple this with F9 coming back in at some level, looks like you may have 4 "players" in the market. Granted they all serve somewhat different purposes. Little jealousy of our friends in DEN from over here in PDX.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 06, 2019 12:36 pm

jplatts wrote:
tphuang wrote:
FLL-DCA does a little better than other 3, but it has pretty bad margins and I have to think there are better places to use those precious DCA slots. In Sep/Oct, they reduced both FLL/MCO-DCA to once a day. Not great signs for their viability.


WN is actually bigger in the Baltimore/DC market by number of domestic passengers per year than in any other market, and DCA is also a larger WN station than some of the other domestic WN stations that currently have daily nonstop service to FLL on WN.

I can understand WN hanging onto FLL-DCA nonstop service since (a) WN has a large presence in the Baltimore/DC market and (b) WN wants to hold onto the slots currently used on its FLL-DCA nonstops.


DCA-FLL is a restricted Slot at DCA WN gained from the FL merger. The slot can only be used for FLL or PBI.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 06, 2019 12:54 pm

midway7 wrote:
DEN moving everyone from A to the C gates to free up space for Frontier growth at DEN.
WN getting only getting 4 gates. The remaining 12 going to AlaskaAir 2, Spirit 7 JetBlue 1,Allegiant 1 and Sun Country 1.

Flyguy



Kind of an unwinding of what they did previously, by trying to move everyone to A.

Spirit with 7 gates is interesting. Couple this with F9 coming back in at some level, looks like you may have 4 "players" in the market. Granted they all serve somewhat different purposes. Little jealousy of our friends in DEN from over here in PDX.[/quote]

The OLD preULCC F9 was abandoning DEN because it was struggling to stay afloat.
The new F9 is a lean mean ULCC sees the important value of DEN hub again within it's Point to point dart board. So with the big expansion going on the Land grab for gates is happening by everyone.
I'm sure If WN request more gates DEN will commit to building the D gates in the next 10yrs.
When the C expansion is finished WN will reclaim the 2 temporary gates AS and UA are using giving WN 6 gates to add flights. That's a minimum potential to add 60 more flights a day.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
SWADawg
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Sat Apr 06, 2019 1:15 pm

DEN has definitely changed what they originally planned along with what WN had asked for which was exclusive use of Concourse C. I still think that should be the ultimate goal, which is to give the 2 largest operators at DEN, (UA and WN) their own Concourses. If that means starting Concourse D and moving NK, F9, B6, and AS over there, then so be it.
My posts are my opinion only and do not reflect the views of Southwest Airlines
 
Jshank83
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Mon May 06, 2019 8:12 pm

Anyone know what is going on with the next Southwest schedule release. Was May 23rd, then jumped to May 29th and now it jumped all the way to June 20th. Guessing MAX related? But they are only going to have 5 months for sale here soon. Seems like they should put out some kind of schedule between now and 6 weeks from now.
 
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STT757
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Mon May 06, 2019 9:29 pm

tphuang wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Fargo wrote:

It makes sense for sure. WN will be taking most, if not all of the new D gates under construction, bringing them to 20. I could see them eventually taking all of C and D in another decade after A is redeveloped and expanded. That would bring them to 25 gates (not counting the common use international capable gates that could be used).

No reason BNA can’t become one of WN’s top 5 stations on the same level as MDW, BWI, DEN, LAS, etc.


They’re getting all of D, and might be giving back C13 and C14 to AA since their losing C2, C3 for the new IAB. BNA doesn’t need 6 international gates, and I’m thinking at least 4 will be common use between AA, DL, and potential new carriers.


I could see WN moving some of the Caribbean stuff that is mostly US point of sale from FLL to BNA like year round MBJ, PUJ, multiple daily CUN,


I absolutely agree about WN moving the FLL international flights, but I feel better suited for ATL. Better connecting location and larger o&d. If they're committed to ATL long term, this would be the way to go as far as a Caribbean gateway.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Mon May 06, 2019 10:49 pm

STT757 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:

They’re getting all of D, and might be giving back C13 and C14 to AA since their losing C2, C3 for the new IAB. BNA doesn’t need 6 international gates, and I’m thinking at least 4 will be common use between AA, DL, and potential new carriers.


I could see WN moving some of the Caribbean stuff that is mostly US point of sale from FLL to BNA like year round MBJ, PUJ, multiple daily CUN,


I absolutely agree about WN moving the FLL international flights, but I feel better suited for ATL. Better connecting location and larger o&d. If they're committed to ATL long term, this would be the way to go as far as a Caribbean gateway.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro


WN spent a lot of money and investment on the gate expansion at FLL it's not going to shift Anything to ATL.
Definitely not moving International from FLL.
And it's only temporary down sized FLL during the Runway rebuilding in 2019.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Mon May 06, 2019 11:03 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
Anyone know what is going on with the next Southwest schedule release. Was May 23rd, then jumped to May 29th and now it jumped all the way to June 20th. Guessing MAX related? But they are only going to have 5 months for sale here soon. Seems like they should put out some kind of schedule between now and 6 weeks from now.


Yes it's 110% MAX8 related.
5 months for sale will still be enough time during the peak holiday season.
When they do release I expect a big optimized version Vs 2018 schedule.
I don't see the MAX8 grounding being lifted and back into the schedule until February 2020.
Also with America Airlines pilots demanding a lengthy retraining on the MAX aircraft.
One has to wonder is this more tactical because they know the grounding hurts a major competitor more than actual safety issues.
I speculate the possibility because America has the abilities to reshuffle it's flying with regionals to help cover it's grounded Max fleet.
And it well knows WN doesn't have that flexibility.
The grounding also takes away a huge chunk of available Seats in the system which will drive up ticket prices.

My 2cents anyway.

Flyguy
my post are my opinion only and not those of southwest airlines and or airtran airlines.
 
SWADawg
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Mon May 06, 2019 11:24 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
Anyone know what is going on with the next Southwest schedule release. Was May 23rd, then jumped to May 29th and now it jumped all the way to June 20th. Guessing MAX related? But they are only going to have 5 months for sale here soon. Seems like they should put out some kind of schedule between now and 6 weeks from now.


Yes it's 110% MAX8 related.
5 months for sale will still be enough time during the peak holiday season.
When they do release I expect a big optimized version Vs 2018 schedule.
I don't see the MAX8 grounding being lifted and back into the schedule until February 2020.
Also with America Airlines pilots demanding a lengthy retraining on the MAX aircraft.
One has to wonder is this more tactical because they know the grounding hurts a major competitor more than actual safety issues.
I speculate the possibility because America has the abilities to reshuffle it's flying with regionals to help cover it's grounded Max fleet.
And it well knows WN doesn't have that flexibility.
The grounding also takes away a huge chunk of available Seats in the system which will drive up ticket prices.

My 2cents anyway.

Flyguy

MAX will be back before August. The Company will use them as spares and they will be worked back into the schedule in future schedule releases. Fall should be back to more or less normal from a fleet perspective.
My posts are my opinion only and do not reflect the views of Southwest Airlines
 
tphuang
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 12:38 am

wnflyguy wrote:
STT757 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

I could see WN moving some of the Caribbean stuff that is mostly US point of sale from FLL to BNA like year round MBJ, PUJ, multiple daily CUN,


I absolutely agree about WN moving the FLL international flights, but I feel better suited for ATL. Better connecting location and larger o&d. If they're committed to ATL long term, this would be the way to go as far as a Caribbean gateway.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro


WN spent a lot of money and investment on the gate expansion at FLL it's not going to shift Anything to ATL.
Definitely not moving International from FLL.
And it's only temporary down sized FLL during the Runway rebuilding in 2019.

Flyguy


Did you miss out on all the cuts because they can't compete in Northeast to FLL market? WN's experiment at FLL is not working out. B6 and NK is sandwiching it. WN is clearly shifting all its focus to BNA in East coast. That's going to be a huge battle with DL. And after the west coast turf war with AS + the HI entrance, it will have to deal with the NK expansion at LAS, MCO and MSY. FLL is a project worth continuing when things are going well, not when there are fires everywhere.
 
n471wn
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 12:41 am

No way is the MAX going to be flying in August—each day the news gets worse and the FAA will be overly cautious
 
Jshank83
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Tue May 07, 2019 3:58 am

I thought AAs President said he expects the MAX back by August a week or two ago.
 
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LotsaRunway
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Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Thu May 09, 2019 1:18 pm

tphuang wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
STT757 wrote:

I absolutely agree about WN moving the FLL international flights, but I feel better suited for ATL. Better connecting location and larger o&d. If they're committed to ATL long term, this would be the way to go as far as a Caribbean gateway.


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WN spent a lot of money and investment on the gate expansion at FLL it's not going to shift Anything to ATL.
Definitely not moving International from FLL.
And it's only temporary down sized FLL during the Runway rebuilding in 2019.

Flyguy


Did you miss out on all the cuts because they can't compete in Northeast to FLL market? WN's experiment at FLL is not working out. B6 and NK is sandwiching it. WN is clearly shifting all its focus to BNA in East coast. That's going to be a huge battle with DL. And after the west coast turf war with AS + the HI entrance, it will have to deal with the NK expansion at LAS, MCO and MSY. FLL is a project worth continuing when things are going well, not when there are fires everywhere.

Before pulling the plug on the FLL international hublet, WN should at least explore improving the connection linkages by better timing flights. I know they want to maximize O&D on each leg, but they have a lot of potential connecting services that can't get there on WN they way they are now so they opt for other carriers.
 
jplatts
Posts: 2647
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Thu May 09, 2019 1:48 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Did you miss out on all the cuts because they can't compete in Northeast to FLL market? WN's experiment at FLL is not working out. B6 and NK is sandwiching it. WN is clearly shifting all its focus to BNA in East coast. That's going to be a huge battle with DL. And after the west coast turf war with AS + the HI entrance, it will have to deal with the NK expansion at LAS, MCO and MSY. FLL is a project worth continuing when things are going well, not when there are fires everywhere.

Before pulling the plug on the FLL international hublet, WN should at least explore improving the connection linkages by better timing flights. I know they want to maximize O&D on each leg, but they have a lot of potential connecting services that can't get there on WN they way they are now so they opt for other carriers.


There are still some more domestic nonstop routes such as FLL-CVG, FLL-CLE, FLL-GRR, FLL-SDF, FLL-MEM, FLL-ORF, FLL-OAK, FLL-OMA, FLL-ROC, and FLL-SAN that could be added by WN out of FLL. WN also already has more market share on domestic air travel in the MIA/FLL market than any of its LCC or ULCC competitors.

WN could also add nonstop service to more international destinations out of MCO as there are some domestic destinations that WN serves nonstop from MCO but not from FLL. I agree that WN should improve access to international destinations from more of its network, whether by re-timing flights out of FLL, increasing frequencies on nonstop international flights out of FLL, or adding more nonstop international flights out of MCO.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 5389
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Thu May 09, 2019 2:10 pm

jplatts wrote:
LotsaRunway wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Did you miss out on all the cuts because they can't compete in Northeast to FLL market? WN's experiment at FLL is not working out. B6 and NK is sandwiching it. WN is clearly shifting all its focus to BNA in East coast. That's going to be a huge battle with DL. And after the west coast turf war with AS + the HI entrance, it will have to deal with the NK expansion at LAS, MCO and MSY. FLL is a project worth continuing when things are going well, not when there are fires everywhere.

Before pulling the plug on the FLL international hublet, WN should at least explore improving the connection linkages by better timing flights. I know they want to maximize O&D on each leg, but they have a lot of potential connecting services that can't get there on WN they way they are now so they opt for other carriers.


There are still some more domestic nonstop routes such as FLL-CVG, FLL-CLE, FLL-GRR, FLL-SDF, FLL-MEM, FLL-ORF, FLL-OAK, FLL-OMA, FLL-ROC, and FLL-SAN that could be added by WN out of FLL. WN also already has more market share on domestic air travel in the MIA/FLL market than any of its LCC or ULCC competitors.


More airport code salad without any reasoning or objective facts. What's the evidence that there is, for example, any meaningful unmet demand on CVG-South Florida? Monday's schedule shows 1x DL 737 on CVG-FLL, and 3x AA 144 (little snot 145s!) on CVG-MIA. That's it. It's not a big market, even with AA's hub demand beyond MIA.
 
jplatts
Posts: 2647
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Thu May 09, 2019 4:11 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
More airport code salad without any reasoning or objective facts. What's the evidence that there is, for example, any meaningful unmet demand on CVG-South Florida? Monday's schedule shows 1x DL 737 on CVG-FLL, and 3x AA 144 (little snot 145s!) on CVG-MIA. That's it. It's not a big market, even with AA's hub demand beyond MIA.


Here are the PDEW's for some Midwest-MIA/FLL routes in Q3 2018:
CLE-MIA/FLL - 378
CVG-MIA/FLL - 314
IND-MIA/FLL - 297
STL-MIA/FLL - 297
CMH-MIA/FLL - 237
MCI-MIA/FLL - 205

WN might actually be able to make CVG-FLL nonstop service work since (a) CVG already has more demand to the MIA/FLL market that some bigger WN stations in the Midwest that already have daily nonstop service to FLL on WN, (b) F9 no longer serves the MIA/FLL market nonstop from CVG, (c) WN would not face competition from B6 or NK on CVG-FLL, and (d) WN would be able to more easily connect passengers to Caribbean destinations from CVG through FLL if WN adds CVG-FLL nonstop service.

While AA, UA, B6, and NK all already serve the MIA/FLL market nonstop from CLE, WN had previously said that it was considering adding CLE-FLL nonstop service back in October 2017 (source: https://www.cleveland.com/travel/index.ssf/2017/10/whats_next_for_cleveland_hopki.html).

While B6 already serves SAN nonstop from FLL, WN could add FLL-SAN nonstop service in order to defend against AS or NK possibly adding FLL-SAN nonstop service.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 2772
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2019

Thu May 16, 2019 8:05 pm

I see the next schedule release has now been moved UP to May 30th after being moved back to June from mid may originally. Must have a better feel for when the MAXs are coming back?
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