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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 12:52 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Supposedly BNA was courting Europe/London service for over 10 years. I could only imagine how long it could take to recruit an Asia flight.


I'm pretty sure BNA has been courting Asia since a bit before the London flight was announced. I remember reading an article at least from 2013 about it.

Here's what's going to happen though, I think it is going to play out like this. You are going to see AUS, RDU, BNA, IND, CMH, or some other mid-sized airport get a non-stop TPAC first, and the rest will follow in succession 1-3 years later.


Unlike Europe, I don’t think there will be as many mid-sized markets landing Asia service. IMO, as of right now, the only markets that have a strong enough case are AUS, RDU, BNA and IND. Other airports in that category don’t have strong enough economies.

AUS will likely be first, considering their airport director hinted it could within the next two years. I think the only thing standing in the way of BNA getting a JL 788 to NRT/HND is the lack of a long enough N/S runway. Since IND has the proper infrastructure and incentive $ in place, perhaps JL isn’t too far off there. RDU wants China so that will take a bit.
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 1:49 pm

I was reading the article in Airways about EI. They want to expand further into the U.S. with their 321LR's. I'd be curious if BNA could support a flight. Everyone in my family would take it, but we are all Irish.
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 2:59 pm

So runway 31 couldn’t handle a 787 to Asia?
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:07 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
So runway 31 couldn’t handle a 787 to Asia?


31 is more than long enough. It handled 747s to TPE in the dog days of Dell. I’m not sure what all this discussion of lengthening runways is about.
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:08 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
So runway 31 couldn’t handle a 787 to Asia?


31 is more than long enough. It handled 747s to TPE in the dog days of Dell. I’m not sure what all this discussion of lengthening runways is about.


I don’t think extending 2L/20R is a bad idea, but I was just a tad confused.
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:14 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
So runway 31 couldn’t handle a 787 to Asia?


31 is more than long enough. It handled 747s to TPE in the dog days of Dell. I’m not sure what all this discussion of lengthening runways is about.


I don’t think extending 2L/20R is a bad idea, but I was just a tad confused.


Nor do I, but JL and NH have no trouble operating to fields with a single suitable runway (like NGO). That’s not the issue with a Japan flight.
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:21 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

31 is more than long enough. It handled 747s to TPE in the dog days of Dell. I’m not sure what all this discussion of lengthening runways is about.


I don’t think extending 2L/20R is a bad idea, but I was just a tad confused.


Nor do I, but JL and NH have no trouble operating to fields with a single suitable runway (like NGO). That’s not the issue with a Japan flight.


I remember the MNAA saying somewhere that BNA could handle a fully loaded 747. So I figured it would be able to handle the modern 787. TPAC won’t happen until the fancy IAB is completed.
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Fargo
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:28 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:

I don’t think extending 2L/20R is a bad idea, but I was just a tad confused.


Nor do I, but JL and NH have no trouble operating to fields with a single suitable runway (like NGO). That’s not the issue with a Japan flight.


I remember the MNAA saying somewhere that BNA could handle a fully loaded 747. So I figured it would be able to handle the modern 787. TPAC won’t happen until the fancy IAB is completed.


I think the issue is the crosswind is only used in certain circumstances and they want one of the main N/S runways extended to match it (for flexibility).

Wouldn’t a Tokyo flight leave in the morning though?
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:19 pm

Fargo wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

Nor do I, but JL and NH have no trouble operating to fields with a single suitable runway (like NGO). That’s not the issue with a Japan flight.


I remember the MNAA saying somewhere that BNA could handle a fully loaded 747. So I figured it would be able to handle the modern 787. TPAC won’t happen until the fancy IAB is completed.


I think the issue is the crosswind is only used in certain circumstances and they want one of the main N/S runways extended to match it (for flexibility).

Wouldn’t a Tokyo flight leave in the morning though?


It would leave in the morning. And in calm winds, putting the heavies on the crosswind might actually be LESS disruptive to ops. A 2R departure will have to wait a lot less long for wake turbulence separation if the heavy uses 31 versus 2R. The issue is strong south winds, but that’s not a very common weather pattern and a 788 might be okay off of the 20s with a lot of headwind.
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:24 pm

It’s gonna be a few years, but I’m excited to see BNA Vision II. The new A concourse will be much needed, and there’s no doubt you’ll see WN take AA’s old C Concourse Gates.
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 4:32 pm

Fargo wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Supposedly BNA was courting Europe/London service for over 10 years. I could only imagine how long it could take to recruit an Asia flight.


I'm pretty sure BNA has been courting Asia since a bit before the London flight was announced. I remember reading an article at least from 2013 about it.

Here's what's going to happen though, I think it is going to play out like this. You are going to see AUS, RDU, BNA, IND, CMH, or some other mid-sized airport get a non-stop TPAC first, and the rest will follow in succession 1-3 years later.


Unlike Europe, I don’t think there will be as many mid-sized markets landing Asia service. IMO, as of right now, the only markets that have a strong enough case are AUS, RDU, BNA and IND. Other airports in that category don’t have strong enough economies.

AUS will likely be first, considering their airport director hinted it could within the next two years. I think the only thing standing in the way of BNA getting a JL 788 to NRT/HND is the lack of a long enough N/S runway. Since IND has the proper infrastructure and incentive $ in place, perhaps JL isn’t too far off there. RDU wants China so that will take a bit.


Not exactly, CMH has sizably more demand to Tokyo than BNA and IND. CMH-TYO is equivalent (or close to it) to CMH-LON in terms of PDEW. I think even though they currently don't have TATL service, it wouldn't be far-fetched to see CMH get TPAC service a few years after the ones mentioned above

With regards to BNA though, it's likely more than just runway issue in terms of getting JAL. PHX, LAS, MIA, and PHL all have strong cases to get JAL before any of the mid-sized cities listed.
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:25 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Fargo wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

I'm pretty sure BNA has been courting Asia since a bit before the London flight was announced. I remember reading an article at least from 2013 about it.

Here's what's going to happen though, I think it is going to play out like this. You are going to see AUS, RDU, BNA, IND, CMH, or some other mid-sized airport get a non-stop TPAC first, and the rest will follow in succession 1-3 years later.


Unlike Europe, I don’t think there will be as many mid-sized markets landing Asia service. IMO, as of right now, the only markets that have a strong enough case are AUS, RDU, BNA and IND. Other airports in that category don’t have strong enough economies.

AUS will likely be first, considering their airport director hinted it could within the next two years. I think the only thing standing in the way of BNA getting a JL 788 to NRT/HND is the lack of a long enough N/S runway. Since IND has the proper infrastructure and incentive $ in place, perhaps JL isn’t too far off there. RDU wants China so that will take a bit.


Not exactly, CMH has sizably more demand to Tokyo than BNA and IND. CMH-TYO is equivalent (or close to it) to CMH-LON in terms of PDEW. I think even though they currently don't have TATL service, it wouldn't be far-fetched to see CMH get TPAC service a few years after the ones mentioned above

With regards to BNA though, it's likely more than just runway issue in terms of getting JAL. PHX, LAS, MIA, and PHL all have strong cases to get JAL before any of the mid-sized cities listed.


As we have learned from the recent European additions, population size/growth and PDEW don't always tell the whole story. Other factors such as having a strong, diverse economy, strong business ties, tier one universities, etc, play a factor too. BNA had less PDEW to LON than places such as IND, CMH, etc, but it landed it first, in large part because of the energy here. CMH is doing very well, but it isn't quite yet on the same level as AUS, BNA, RDU and even IND.

To your second point, LAS and MIA are indeed head scratchers as to why they don't have TYO service, but I think there is a reason PHX and PHL don't have one, and it's probably due to the fact they aren't as major business centers and have large AA hubs, and AA would rather route traffic through LAX and JFK respectively. I don't see why a 3x weekly JL flight to NRT couldn't work from the likes of BNA and IND, considering the low density of the 788 JL uses and the fact that (in the case of BNA) companies such as Nissan and Bridgestone could make guarantees like RDU had for their London flight years ago.
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 6:49 pm

Fargo wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Fargo wrote:

Unlike Europe, I don’t think there will be as many mid-sized markets landing Asia service. IMO, as of right now, the only markets that have a strong enough case are AUS, RDU, BNA and IND. Other airports in that category don’t have strong enough economies.

AUS will likely be first, considering their airport director hinted it could within the next two years. I think the only thing standing in the way of BNA getting a JL 788 to NRT/HND is the lack of a long enough N/S runway. Since IND has the proper infrastructure and incentive $ in place, perhaps JL isn’t too far off there. RDU wants China so that will take a bit.


Not exactly, CMH has sizably more demand to Tokyo than BNA and IND. CMH-TYO is equivalent (or close to it) to CMH-LON in terms of PDEW. I think even though they currently don't have TATL service, it wouldn't be far-fetched to see CMH get TPAC service a few years after the ones mentioned above

With regards to BNA though, it's likely more than just runway issue in terms of getting JAL. PHX, LAS, MIA, and PHL all have strong cases to get JAL before any of the mid-sized cities listed.


As we have learned from the recent European additions, population size/growth and PDEW don't always tell the whole story. Other factors such as having a strong, diverse economy, strong business ties, tier one universities, etc, play a factor too. BNA had less PDEW to LON than places such as IND, CMH, etc, but it landed it first, in large part because of the energy here. CMH is doing very well, but it isn't quite yet on the same level as AUS, BNA, RDU and even IND.

To your second point, LAS and MIA are indeed head scratchers as to why they don't have TYO service, but I think there is a reason PHX and PHL don't have one, and it's probably due to the fact they aren't as major business centers and have large AA hubs, and AA would rather route traffic through LAX and JFK respectively. I don't see why a 3x weekly JL flight to NRT couldn't work from the likes of BNA and IND, considering the low density of the 788 JL uses and the fact that (in the case of BNA) companies such as Nissan and Bridgestone could make guarantees like RDU had for their London flight years ago.


CMH has Honda, and Honda has more operations in central Ohio (and in particular more functions, like engineering, that lead to demand to Japan) than Nissan or Bridgestone has or Mitsubishi will in Nashville.

I think the way that TPAC will happen for most of these flyover country cities is less than daily and perhaps together with another city or two (3 weekly CMH, 4 weekly BNA or maybe even 3/3/2 with 3 cities). That’s a little different from the likely service pattern to a place like LAS or MIA.
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Jul 06, 2019 9:46 pm

Would tourism be a factor for TPAC services? I definitely handled my fair share of bags to Asia during my ramp days. I know that doesn’t mean anything, but at least you know people from BNA are heading there.
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 07, 2019 1:59 am

southwest1675 wrote:
Would tourism be a factor for TPAC services? I definitely handled my fair share of bags to Asia during my ramp days. I know that doesn’t mean anything, but at least you know people from BNA are heading there.


Yes, but not primarily. An Asia flight from BNA would ultimately need business traffic to fill up J.
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 07, 2019 2:27 am

Cubsrule wrote:
CMH has Honda, and Honda has more operations in central Ohio (and in particular more functions, like engineering, that lead to demand to Japan) than Nissan or Bridgestone has or Mitsubishi will in Nashville.


Are you sure? I think it's actually pretty even. Even so, Honda's actual North American HQ is in California, and the central Ohio ops are more related to manufacturing rather than corporate executive positions which would fill J.

CMH would be better off focusing on TATL service first and continuing to bolster their domestic flight offerings before attempting TPAC.

Cubsrule wrote:
I think the way that TPAC will happen for most of these flyover country cities is less than daily and perhaps together with another city or two (3 weekly CMH, 4 weekly BNA or maybe even 3/3/2 with 3 cities). That’s a little different from the likely service pattern to a place like LAS or MIA.


Maybe, but I think it will come down to a combination of the strength of the regional economy and incentive $$$.
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 07, 2019 2:52 am

Fargo wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
CMH has Honda, and Honda has more operations in central Ohio (and in particular more functions, like engineering, that lead to demand to Japan) than Nissan or Bridgestone has or Mitsubishi will in Nashville.


Are you sure? I think it's actually pretty even. Even so, Honda's actual North American HQ is in California, and the central Ohio ops are more related to manufacturing rather than corporate executive positions which would fill J.


I’m sure. Honda moved virtually all of its engineering functions to Ohio. Nissan retains significant engineering in southeast Michigan (Farmington Hills), and Bridgestone similarly still has engineering in Akron.
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 07, 2019 5:15 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
So runway 31 couldn’t handle a 787 to Asia?


31 is more than long enough. It handled 747s to TPE in the dog days of Dell. I’m not sure what all this discussion of lengthening runways is about.


Not exactly, IIRC the flight from TPE was TPE-ANC-BNA. The return was either to ORD or DFW before returning to TPE via ANC again
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 07, 2019 5:58 pm

rexchase12 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
So runway 31 couldn’t handle a 787 to Asia?


31 is more than long enough. It handled 747s to TPE in the dog days of Dell. I’m not sure what all this discussion of lengthening runways is about.


Not exactly, IIRC the flight from TPE was TPE-ANC-BNA. The return was either to ORD or DFW before returning to TPE via ANC again


It did straight shoot to TPE in the early days to my understanding.
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:50 pm

Fargo wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Fargo wrote:

Unlike Europe, I don’t think there will be as many mid-sized markets landing Asia service. IMO, as of right now, the only markets that have a strong enough case are AUS, RDU, BNA and IND. Other airports in that category don’t have strong enough economies.

AUS will likely be first, considering their airport director hinted it could within the next two years. I think the only thing standing in the way of BNA getting a JL 788 to NRT/HND is the lack of a long enough N/S runway. Since IND has the proper infrastructure and incentive $ in place, perhaps JL isn’t too far off there. RDU wants China so that will take a bit.


Not exactly, CMH has sizably more demand to Tokyo than BNA and IND. CMH-TYO is equivalent (or close to it) to CMH-LON in terms of PDEW. I think even though they currently don't have TATL service, it wouldn't be far-fetched to see CMH get TPAC service a few years after the ones mentioned above

With regards to BNA though, it's likely more than just runway issue in terms of getting JAL. PHX, LAS, MIA, and PHL all have strong cases to get JAL before any of the mid-sized cities listed.


As we have learned from the recent European additions, population size/growth and PDEW don't always tell the whole story. Other factors such as having a strong, diverse economy, strong business ties, tier one universities, etc, play a factor too. BNA had less PDEW to LON than places such as IND, CMH, etc, but it landed it first, in large part because of the energy here. CMH is doing very well, but it isn't quite yet on the same level as AUS, BNA, RDU and even IND.

To your second point, LAS and MIA are indeed head scratchers as to why they don't have TYO service, but I think there is a reason PHX and PHL don't have one, and it's probably due to the fact they aren't as major business centers and have large AA hubs, and AA would rather route traffic through LAX and JFK respectively. I don't see why a 3x weekly JL flight to NRT couldn't work from the likes of BNA and IND, considering the low density of the 788 JL uses and the fact that (in the case of BNA) companies such as Nissan and Bridgestone could make guarantees like RDU had for their London flight years ago.


-----------------
Think TPAC from AUS, BNA, RDU and IND are very far off. PHX, LAS, MIA and PHL will all have TPAC service before the aforementioned. To say PHL is not a major business center is flat wrong. It has far more business than any of the aforementioned cities...and MIA is not far behind. AA will likely offer TPAC from CLT in the next 24 months.
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:55 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
rexchase12 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

31 is more than long enough. It handled 747s to TPE in the dog days of Dell. I’m not sure what all this discussion of lengthening runways is about.


Not exactly, IIRC the flight from TPE was TPE-ANC-BNA. The return was either to ORD or DFW before returning to TPE via ANC again


It did straight shoot to TPE in the early days to my understanding.


FWIW 31 is 11,030 ft compared to MEM's longest runway of 11,120 ft, which handles multiple daily TPAC flights.
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 07, 2019 8:50 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Fargo wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Not exactly, CMH has sizably more demand to Tokyo than BNA and IND. CMH-TYO is equivalent (or close to it) to CMH-LON in terms of PDEW. I think even though they currently don't have TATL service, it wouldn't be far-fetched to see CMH get TPAC service a few years after the ones mentioned above

With regards to BNA though, it's likely more than just runway issue in terms of getting JAL. PHX, LAS, MIA, and PHL all have strong cases to get JAL before any of the mid-sized cities listed.


As we have learned from the recent European additions, population size/growth and PDEW don't always tell the whole story. Other factors such as having a strong, diverse economy, strong business ties, tier one universities, etc, play a factor too. BNA had less PDEW to LON than places such as IND, CMH, etc, but it landed it first, in large part because of the energy here. CMH is doing very well, but it isn't quite yet on the same level as AUS, BNA, RDU and even IND.

To your second point, LAS and MIA are indeed head scratchers as to why they don't have TYO service, but I think there is a reason PHX and PHL don't have one, and it's probably due to the fact they aren't as major business centers and have large AA hubs, and AA would rather route traffic through LAX and JFK respectively. I don't see why a 3x weekly JL flight to NRT couldn't work from the likes of BNA and IND, considering the low density of the 788 JL uses and the fact that (in the case of BNA) companies such as Nissan and Bridgestone could make guarantees like RDU had for their London flight years ago.


-----------------
Think TPAC from AUS, BNA, RDU and IND are very far off. PHX, LAS, MIA and PHL will all have TPAC service before the aforementioned. To say PHL is not a major business center is flat wrong. It has far more business than any of the aforementioned cities...and MIA is not far behind. AA will likely offer TPAC from CLT in the next 24 months.


LAS has TPAC and it’s not clear to me that a Japan flight there makes more sense than a Japan flight from a city with no other TPAC service even though LAS is a larger market.

As for the AA hubs the problem isn’t so much demand (which is larger than the BNAs and INDs of the world in all cases but CLT) but AA’s abysmal track record at hanging on to non-DFW/LAX TPAC? CLT-NRT when AA can’t even keep ORD-TYO daily? Come on.
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 07, 2019 8:53 pm

I always see the TPAC talk on this thread (and IND, others). But how far out are you all realistically thinking a flight is. I see people say in the future but what is the future to you? 2021? 2025? 2030? 2035?

I just am curious on the timeline you think instead of saying future which could mean 1 year or 100 years from now.
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 07, 2019 9:14 pm

If any city is willing to offer ridiculous incentives, I am sure a Chinese airline is willing to fly out of there. I wouldn't expect any us airlines or their jv partner to fly out of secondary cities anytime soon.
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 07, 2019 9:19 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
Fargo wrote:

As we have learned from the recent European additions, population size/growth and PDEW don't always tell the whole story. Other factors such as having a strong, diverse economy, strong business ties, tier one universities, etc, play a factor too. BNA had less PDEW to LON than places such as IND, CMH, etc, but it landed it first, in large part because of the energy here. CMH is doing very well, but it isn't quite yet on the same level as AUS, BNA, RDU and even IND.

To your second point, LAS and MIA are indeed head scratchers as to why they don't have TYO service, but I think there is a reason PHX and PHL don't have one, and it's probably due to the fact they aren't as major business centers and have large AA hubs, and AA would rather route traffic through LAX and JFK respectively. I don't see why a 3x weekly JL flight to NRT couldn't work from the likes of BNA and IND, considering the low density of the 788 JL uses and the fact that (in the case of BNA) companies such as Nissan and Bridgestone could make guarantees like RDU had for their London flight years ago.


-----------------
Think TPAC from AUS, BNA, RDU and IND are very far off. PHX, LAS, MIA and PHL will all have TPAC service before the aforementioned. To say PHL is not a major business center is flat wrong. It has far more business than any of the aforementioned cities...and MIA is not far behind. AA will likely offer TPAC from CLT in the next 24 months.


LAS has TPAC and it’s not clear to me that a Japan flight there makes more sense than a Japan flight from a city with no other TPAC service even though LAS is a larger market.

As for the AA hubs the problem isn’t so much demand (which is larger than the BNAs and INDs of the world in all cases but CLT) but AA’s abysmal track record at hanging on to non-DFW/LAX TPAC? CLT-NRT when AA can’t even keep ORD-TYO daily? Come on.


LAS makes sense, AA advocated for it recently but didn't get the slot

Not sure all of the AA hubs are larger than though some of these mid-sized cities.

Image
Image

Obviously TPAC isn't just TYO, but these are the only recent numbers I can find. Also, not included in these numbers is bleed to nearby airports with TPAC service (BNA bleed to ATL, IND bleed to ORD, AUS bleed to IAH)
Last edited by Midwestindy on Sun Jul 07, 2019 9:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 07, 2019 9:21 pm

tphuang wrote:
If any city is willing to offer ridiculous incentives, I am sure a Chinese airline is willing to fly out of there. I wouldn't expect any us airlines or their jv partner to fly out of secondary cities anytime soon.


China is a different beast, lIRC there are an extremely limited number of exemptions for China-US service. So even with incentives in the tens of millions it could be difficult to get a Chinese airline to do it.
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:28 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
I always see the TPAC talk on this thread (and IND, others). But how far out are you all realistically thinking a flight is. I see people say in the future but what is the future to you? 2021? 2025? 2030? 2035?

I just am curious on the timeline you think instead of saying future which could mean 1 year or 100 years from now.


In BNA’s case, I expect it in the mid-2020’s when the current BNA Vision work is completed. Not sure if the runway will be extended by then though.
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:10 am

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
If any city is willing to offer ridiculous incentives, I am sure a Chinese airline is willing to fly out of there. I wouldn't expect any us airlines or their jv partner to fly out of secondary cities anytime soon.


China is a different beast, lIRC there are an extremely limited number of exemptions for China-US service. So even with incentives in the tens of millions it could be difficult to get a Chinese airline to do it.


I would be shocked if BNA got a flight to China, even if restrictions are lifted. TYO sooner or later, maybe KE to ICN but even that is a stretch. I was talking to someone about the IAB and they are convinced they will be international only. That's a lot of flights Nashville will never have to use 6 gates,
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:32 am

EvanWSFO wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
If any city is willing to offer ridiculous incentives, I am sure a Chinese airline is willing to fly out of there. I wouldn't expect any us airlines or their jv partner to fly out of secondary cities anytime soon.


China is a different beast, lIRC there are an extremely limited number of exemptions for China-US service. So even with incentives in the tens of millions it could be difficult to get a Chinese airline to do it.


I would be shocked if BNA got a flight to China, even if restrictions are lifted. TYO sooner or later, maybe KE to ICN but even that is a stretch. I was talking to someone about the IAB and they are convinced they will be international only. That's a lot of flights Nashville will never have to use 6 gates,


6 definitely seemed liked a stretch. BNA would honestly need no more than 3 international gates. I would think they would be swing gates, but it doesn’t seem like it’ll be that way.
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Fargo
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:33 am

EvanWSFO wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
If any city is willing to offer ridiculous incentives, I am sure a Chinese airline is willing to fly out of there. I wouldn't expect any us airlines or their jv partner to fly out of secondary cities anytime soon.


China is a different beast, lIRC there are an extremely limited number of exemptions for China-US service. So even with incentives in the tens of millions it could be difficult to get a Chinese airline to do it.


I would be shocked if BNA got a flight to China, even if restrictions are lifted. TYO sooner or later, maybe KE to ICN but even that is a stretch. I was talking to someone about the IAB and they are convinced they will be international only. That's a lot of flights Nashville will never have to use 6 gates,


China ain’t happening. When Doug mentioned Beijing in the last video in the link I posted above, I thought, yeah freaking right.....

Even LAS, which I believe is a model for what BNA will become in the future (on a smaller scale that is) only has two Asia flights (I’m not counting that oddball TLV route), HU to PEK and KE to ICN.

I only can see JL to TYO for the foreseeable future. KE just doesn’t have enough demand and their planes are too big for a nonstop BNA-ICN.

To your last point, the six international gates will be swing domestic/international, I believe that was the plan all along. No way BNA needs six dedicated international gates, there isn’t enough flights that require FIS to justify it. Though if WN makes the logical move of building up BNA to one of their largest stations, perhaps we’ll see some Central American flights that will require FIS.
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 08, 2019 3:36 am

The only foreseeable international flights from BNA I see are a flight or two to South America, someone to FRA, JL to NRT, and FI to KEF. You could also technically throw in WS to YVR, and AC to YUL.
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:10 am

southwest1675 wrote:
The only foreseeable international flights from BNA I see are a flight or two to South America, someone to FRA, JL to NRT, and FI to KEF. You could also technically throw in WS to YVR, and AC to YUL.


I’d say DL to CDG or AMS is more likely than FRA.
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:29 pm

Fargo wrote:
EvanWSFO wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

China is a different beast, lIRC there are an extremely limited number of exemptions for China-US service. So even with incentives in the tens of millions it could be difficult to get a Chinese airline to do it.


I would be shocked if BNA got a flight to China, even if restrictions are lifted. TYO sooner or later, maybe KE to ICN but even that is a stretch. I was talking to someone about the IAB and they are convinced they will be international only. That's a lot of flights Nashville will never have to use 6 gates,


China ain’t happening. When Doug mentioned Beijing in the last video in the link I posted above, I thought, yeah freaking right.....

Even LAS, which I believe is a model for what BNA will become in the future (on a smaller scale that is) only has two Asia flights (I’m not counting that oddball TLV route), HU to PEK and KE to ICN.

I only can see JL to TYO for the foreseeable future. KE just doesn’t have enough demand and their planes are too big for a nonstop BNA-ICN.

To your last point, the six international gates will be swing domestic/international, I believe that was the plan all along. No way BNA needs six dedicated international gates, there isn’t enough flights that require FIS to justify it. Though if WN makes the logical move of building up BNA to one of their largest stations, perhaps we’ll see some Central American flights that will require FIS.


I'm not sure why six international gates draw so much attention. It feels about right to me if the goal is to eliminate towing for departures. There will likely be some growth in weekend only seasonal Caribbean service either by WN or by others (look how much STL has, for instance), and having the flexibility to the point that an airplane can take a short to medium-length maintenance delay on a gate is a good thing. The marginal cost of connecting gates to the FIS is pretty low; most of the construction cost is in the FIS itself.
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 08, 2019 3:13 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Fargo wrote:
EvanWSFO wrote:

I would be shocked if BNA got a flight to China, even if restrictions are lifted. TYO sooner or later, maybe KE to ICN but even that is a stretch. I was talking to someone about the IAB and they are convinced they will be international only. That's a lot of flights Nashville will never have to use 6 gates,


China ain’t happening. When Doug mentioned Beijing in the last video in the link I posted above, I thought, yeah freaking right.....

Even LAS, which I believe is a model for what BNA will become in the future (on a smaller scale that is) only has two Asia flights (I’m not counting that oddball TLV route), HU to PEK and KE to ICN.

I only can see JL to TYO for the foreseeable future. KE just doesn’t have enough demand and their planes are too big for a nonstop BNA-ICN.

To your last point, the six international gates will be swing domestic/international, I believe that was the plan all along. No way BNA needs six dedicated international gates, there isn’t enough flights that require FIS to justify it. Though if WN makes the logical move of building up BNA to one of their largest stations, perhaps we’ll see some Central American flights that will require FIS.


I'm not sure why six international gates draw so much attention. It feels about right to me if the goal is to eliminate towing for departures. There will likely be some growth in weekend only seasonal Caribbean service either by WN or by others (look how much STL has, for instance), and having the flexibility to the point that an airplane can take a short to medium-length maintenance delay on a gate is a good thing. The marginal cost of connecting gates to the FIS is pretty low; most of the construction cost is in the FIS itself.


It’ll probably be used for RONs as well.
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:07 pm

If Nashville gets AMS/CDG on Delta, and perhaps FRA, the timing of flights could put all three at the gates at the same time (alongside BA). I suspect as swing gates AA and DL will want back the gates they lose during construction.
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Fargo
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:36 pm

EvanWSFO wrote:
If Nashville gets AMS/CDG on Delta, and perhaps FRA, the timing of flights could put all three at the gates at the same time (alongside BA). I suspect as swing gates AA and DL will want back the gates they lose during construction.


I suspect WN will temporarily give up a few gates on C until the construction is complete on the IAB. After that, AA will get back most of their old gates on C until A is rebuilt, after which I see them moving there and WN taking all of C and D.
 
Fargo
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:42 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
I'm not sure why six international gates draw so much attention. It feels about right to me if the goal is to eliminate towing for departures. There will likely be some growth in weekend only seasonal Caribbean service either by WN or by others (look how much STL has, for instance), and having the flexibility to the point that an airplane can take a short to medium-length maintenance delay on a gate is a good thing. The marginal cost of connecting gates to the FIS is pretty low; most of the construction cost is in the FIS itself.


Is it though? Preliminary plans for the new A show it having two widebody capable gates. If AA moves to the new A eventually and they subsequently build a new Admirals Club, will BA be inclined to depart from A to make it more convenient for premium pax?
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:24 pm

Talked to some of my DL connections today. They’re speculating a CDG or AMS flight could be announced as soon as this fall. BA was announced in August 2017. We’ll see what happens.
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Fargo
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:42 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
Talked to some of my DL connections today. They’re speculating a CDG or AMS flight could be announced as soon as this fall. BA was announced in August 2017. We’ll see what happens.


What about the Sky Club expansion, when will construction begin?

I wonder how it will affect BA if CDG or AMS is launched.
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:15 am

Fargo wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Talked to some of my DL connections today. They’re speculating a CDG or AMS flight could be announced as soon as this fall. BA was announced in August 2017. We’ll see what happens.


What about the Sky Club expansion, when will construction begin?

I wonder how it will affect BA if CDG or AMS is launched.


I would prefer Delta over BA. I’ve taken the flight a couple of times now and found some of the BA staff (granted its a third party) at check in to be pretty rude/unprofessional each time for no reason, and not what you would want to represent our city. Check in was a mess each time with long lines and not clear labeling on what the lines are for. For example, the other day the First and Business class checkin line had 30+ people in it while economy had no one—didn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense and suspect most people were just in the wrong line but the signs weren’t very clear.

Same for boarding...It was a zoo at the end of B with a delayed/very slow boarding process and a sun country and allegiant flight all leaving from down there. 300+ people crammed into one tiny space.
 
Craiger88
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:56 am

Rjh3h wrote:

I would prefer Delta over BA. I’ve taken the flight a couple of times now and found some of the BA staff (granted its a third party) at check in to be pretty rude/unprofessional each time for no reason, and not what you would want to represent our city. Check in was a mess each time with long lines and not clear labeling on what the lines are for. For example, the other day the First and Business class checkin line had 30+ people in it while economy had no one—didn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense and suspect most people were just in the wrong line but the signs weren’t very clear.

Same for boarding...It was a zoo at the end of B with a delayed/very slow boarding process and a sun country and allegiant flight all leaving from down there. 300+ people crammed into one tiny space.


I’ve flown on the BA flight once and I completely agree with everything you said. It was completely disorganized at both the counter and the gate. It seems like this flight is just a daily headache for those employees that they rather not deal with. The process on the way back at LHR was a complete 180. Organized and professional.

Speaking of third party contractors at BNA, the company that runs the immigration area (not ICE themselves, they were nice) were very rude. The guy was clearly on a power trip. Everyone’s phones were going off for a weather emergency and he kept yelling at everyone to not take out their phones. Never letting us know what the emergency was about or whether we were safe.
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:11 pm

Owensboro airport made their EAS recommendation last night. Chose to keep Cape Air to STL but add a BNA frequency. DOT has to approve.

https://www.messenger-inquirer.com/news ... c02b7.html
 
Fargo
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:23 pm

Craiger88 wrote:
Rjh3h wrote:

I would prefer Delta over BA. I’ve taken the flight a couple of times now and found some of the BA staff (granted its a third party) at check in to be pretty rude/unprofessional each time for no reason, and not what you would want to represent our city. Check in was a mess each time with long lines and not clear labeling on what the lines are for. For example, the other day the First and Business class checkin line had 30+ people in it while economy had no one—didn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense and suspect most people were just in the wrong line but the signs weren’t very clear.

Same for boarding...It was a zoo at the end of B with a delayed/very slow boarding process and a sun country and allegiant flight all leaving from down there. 300+ people crammed into one tiny space.


I’ve flown on the BA flight once and I completely agree with everything you said. It was completely disorganized at both the counter and the gate. It seems like this flight is just a daily headache for those employees that they rather not deal with. The process on the way back at LHR was a complete 180. Organized and professional.

Speaking of third party contractors at BNA, the company that runs the immigration area (not ICE themselves, they were nice) were very rude. The guy was clearly on a power trip. Everyone’s phones were going off for a weather emergency and he kept yelling at everyone to not take out their phones. Never letting us know what the emergency was about or whether we were safe.


I took the BA flight as well. Yes, it was a bit cramped at check in and in the B concourse, but it overall was a positive experience. Perhaps you just caught a bad day. Yes, the check in and gate areas were a bit disorganized, but that is due to the fact BNA is out of space right now and the fact that the current infrastructure was not designed to handle widebody planes. I doubt DL to CDG/AMS would be much different.

It just further highlights why the new IAB is needed badly. International growth at BNA cannot really take off until that is completed.
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 3:04 pm

This kind of matches up with what I've been hearing about DL doing MCO-CDG too, perhaps the aircraft will split the route with BNA?
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Rjh3h
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:54 pm

Fargo wrote:
Craiger88 wrote:
Rjh3h wrote:

I would prefer Delta over BA. I’ve taken the flight a couple of times now and found some of the BA staff (granted its a third party) at check in to be pretty rude/unprofessional each time for no reason, and not what you would want to represent our city. Check in was a mess each time with long lines and not clear labeling on what the lines are for. For example, the other day the First and Business class checkin line had 30+ people in it while economy had no one—didn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense and suspect most people were just in the wrong line but the signs weren’t very clear.

Same for boarding...It was a zoo at the end of B with a delayed/very slow boarding process and a sun country and allegiant flight all leaving from down there. 300+ people crammed into one tiny space.


I’ve flown on the BA flight once and I completely agree with everything you said. It was completely disorganized at both the counter and the gate. It seems like this flight is just a daily headache for those employees that they rather not deal with. The process on the way back at LHR was a complete 180. Organized and professional.

Speaking of third party contractors at BNA, the company that runs the immigration area (not ICE themselves, they were nice) were very rude. The guy was clearly on a power trip. Everyone’s phones were going off for a weather emergency and he kept yelling at everyone to not take out their phones. Never letting us know what the emergency was about or whether we were safe.


I took the BA flight as well. Yes, it was a bit cramped at check in and in the B concourse, but it overall was a positive experience. Perhaps you just caught a bad day. Yes, the check in and gate areas were a bit disorganized, but that is due to the fact BNA is out of space right now and the fact that the current infrastructure was not designed to handle widebody planes. I doubt DL to CDG/AMS would be much different.

It just further highlights why the new IAB is needed badly. International growth at BNA cannot really take off until that is completed.


Agreed. I do think it’s a product of the cramped counters and gates that make it more complicated and confusing, and it will only get worse before it gets better.

Also agree on the statement about coming back in and going through passport control. I have Global Entry and they guy grilled me as if I were a foreigner entering the US illegally, and then got a little sassy with me. At other bigger airports (i.e. BOS, JFK, etc.), I usually just hand them the slip and they tell me to go on with zero questions, but I suppose he has to maintain his value somehow with the one flight per day and weekly Cancun flights. :)
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:40 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
Talked to some of my DL connections today. They’re speculating a CDG or AMS flight could be announced as soon as this fall. BA was announced in August 2017. We’ll see what happens.


I know some of the BNA leadership. They are always looking for new international routes to expand, but even if an airline wanted to drop in a new sexy route tomorrow, the logistics would immediately be a problem. When BA launched LHR, it was a great time for the airport and a complete hack for operations to try to make this work. I mean, who deplanes from one gate and then tows to another as normal operating procedure?

When the current terminal was designed (a friend of mine was a young architect who worked on it), the C gates were designed for the larger wide body jets and indeed were used as such during the AA hub years. These days Southwest took over much of that and I doubt have any interest in making BA's life a lot easier in handling a 787. So D is being built which will be capable of all of that and then A will get refurbed too. But I don't see how we fit another wide body in the plan before construction finishes.

That being said, some of the new single aisle long ranges could make things more of a possibility. But I'm just a passenger, not an expert. I do know the holy grail for BNA leadership is Japan, but I'm not betting on it before BNA Vision is finished. Yes, middle Tennessee has Nissan, Bridgestone, Hankook and soon, Mitsubishi. But most people forget the supplier and parts network companies that also relocated here, which do factor in the equation for appropriate corporate support. Right now, BNA-LHR 2018 is a smashing success, even if operationally in BNA there are still problems. The success of the route did result in other airlines sniffing around wondering if it would be possible to get in on the action. But right now, everything is limited by the construction schedule.

And good luck if they want to bring in a new airline for any of this right now. The main terminal ticketing area is hilarious in what they've had to do to fit everything. Air Canada's desk is a temporary pop up off in a corner, like the kid's table at Thanksgiving dinner.
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:46 pm

sevenfeet wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Talked to some of my DL connections today. They’re speculating a CDG or AMS flight could be announced as soon as this fall. BA was announced in August 2017. We’ll see what happens.


I know some of the BNA leadership. They are always looking for new international routes to expand, but even if an airline wanted to drop in a new sexy route tomorrow, the logistics would immediately be a problem. When BA launched LHR, it was a great time for the airport and a complete hack for operations to try to make this work. I mean, who deplanes from one gate and then tows to another as normal operating procedure?

When the current terminal was designed (a friend of mine was a young architect who worked on it), the C gates were designed for the larger wide body jets and indeed were used as such during the AA hub years. These days Southwest took over much of that and I doubt have any interest in making BA's life a lot easier in handling a 787. So D is being built which will be capable of all of that and then A will get refurbed too. But I don't see how we fit another wide body in the plan before construction finishes.

That being said, some of the new single aisle long ranges could make things more of a possibility. But I'm just a passenger, not an expert. I do know the holy grail for BNA leadership is Japan, but I'm not betting on it before BNA Vision is finished. Yes, middle Tennessee has Nissan, Bridgestone, Hankook and soon, Mitsubishi. But most people forget the supplier and parts network companies that also relocated here, which do factor in the equation for appropriate corporate support. Right now, BNA-LHR 2018 is a smashing success, even if operationally in BNA there are still problems. The success of the route did result in other airlines sniffing around wondering if it would be possible to get in on the action. But right now, everything is limited by the construction schedule.

And good luck if they want to bring in a new airline for any of this right now. The main terminal ticketing area is hilarious in what they've had to do to fit everything. Air Canada's desk is a temporary pop up off in a corner, like the kid's table at Thanksgiving dinner.


If the MNAA knew, they would have started BNA Vision 3 years ago. The facilities surely show its age. Concourses A and B are a disaster during peak times. Good luck walking through during the afternoon rush.
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Fargo
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:06 pm

sevenfeet wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
Talked to some of my DL connections today. They’re speculating a CDG or AMS flight could be announced as soon as this fall. BA was announced in August 2017. We’ll see what happens.


I know some of the BNA leadership. They are always looking for new international routes to expand, but even if an airline wanted to drop in a new sexy route tomorrow, the logistics would immediately be a problem. When BA launched LHR, it was a great time for the airport and a complete hack for operations to try to make this work. I mean, who deplanes from one gate and then tows to another as normal operating procedure?

When the current terminal was designed (a friend of mine was a young architect who worked on it), the C gates were designed for the larger wide body jets and indeed were used as such during the AA hub years. These days Southwest took over much of that and I doubt have any interest in making BA's life a lot easier in handling a 787. So D is being built which will be capable of all of that and then A will get refurbed too. But I don't see how we fit another wide body in the plan before construction finishes.

That being said, some of the new single aisle long ranges could make things more of a possibility. But I'm just a passenger, not an expert. I do know the holy grail for BNA leadership is Japan, but I'm not betting on it before BNA Vision is finished. Yes, middle Tennessee has Nissan, Bridgestone, Hankook and soon, Mitsubishi. But most people forget the supplier and parts network companies that also relocated here, which do factor in the equation for appropriate corporate support. Right now, BNA-LHR 2018 is a smashing success, even if operationally in BNA there are still problems. The success of the route did result in other airlines sniffing around wondering if it would be possible to get in on the action. But right now, everything is limited by the construction schedule.

And good luck if they want to bring in a new airline for any of this right now. The main terminal ticketing area is hilarious in what they've had to do to fit everything. Air Canada's desk is a temporary pop up off in a corner, like the kid's table at Thanksgiving dinner.


A DL AMS or CDG flight would likely arrive around mid afternoon and leave around 5 pm (using surrounding markets such as CVG, IND, RDU as a benchmark), so it shouldn't have a problem being accommodated, but that would have to be it until the new IAB opens. Everything else you said is spot on. BNA is out of space, and it is about 3-4 years behind in capital improvement projects.
 
sevenfeet
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:32 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
If the MNAA knew, they would have started BNA Vision 3 years ago. The facilities surely show its age. Concourses A and B are a disaster during peak times. Good luck walking through during the afternoon rush.


I think you meant three years earlier than they did....it was being worked on 3 years ago (announced in September 2017). Keep in mind that MNAA's board of directors had executive issues with the past CEO who ended up getting fired for a multitude of reasons and is currently still in litigation with MNAA.
 
sevenfeet
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Fargo wrote:
A DL AMS or CDG flight would likely arrive around mid afternoon and leave around 5 pm (using surrounding markets such as CVG, IND, RDU as a benchmark), so it shouldn't have a problem being accommodated, but that would have to be it until the new IAB opens. Everything else you said is spot on. BNA is out of space, and it is about 3-4 years behind in capital improvement projects.


I think that works in theory. Right now, the BA flight arrives at 5 PM CT into A concourse for deplaning and then gets towed over to B for boarding for a 8:30 PM departure. As you pointed out, all DL flights to CDG from CVG, IND and RDU land earlier in the day. Let's assume that you have to do the same "Arrival at A. Board at B" routine since customs is at A. DL already is based in B which works for them, especially for the Sly Club, but I'd be concerned of timing it so that you don't have two different 300 seat boardings in the same spot at the end of B. And even if that worked in theory, I could see a flight delay throw all of that into a major logistical mess.

Delta is also flying 767-300s in those markets which are readily available but aren't the "new sexy" like the 787 flying on the LHR route. But I doubt DL has many of the new A350s to put on a route like this (probably spoken for elsewhere).

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