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jplatts
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:12 pm

DakotaFlyer wrote:
Rjh3h wrote:
https://www.nashvillepost.com/business/transportation/aviation/article/21094614/allegiant-preps-50m-investment-at-bna

Allegiant appears to be doubling down at BNA.


Non-paywall link
https://www.bizjournals.com/nashville/n ... -base.html


There are some more nonstop routes such as BNA-AUS, BNA-USA, BNA-FLL, BNA-JAX, BNA-MCI, BNA-LAS, BNA-MKE, BNA-MSY, BNA-EWR, BNA-AZA, BNA-PIT, and BNA-RDU that could be added by G4 out of BNA as these routes are from some of the top markets already served by G4 that do not currently have nonstop service to BNA on G4.
 
Lexy
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Oct 29, 2019 10:46 pm

n917me wrote:
Lexy wrote:
n917me wrote:
Havent heard any of the Envoy limiting AA growth. Envoy, while a wholly owned subsidiary of AA, is a vendor, which had the best bid whenever the last RFP went out. Envoy can not tell AA only X amount of flights can be mainline..Envoy does not dictate to AA what metal can be flown in. Also..the ramp will. It go to mainline if X number of mainline flights come in. That is a rumor as old as time.
BNA-MIA does not have the 175 and hasnt for a while. It fluctuates now between 3 mainline a day to 2 mainline a day with a mix of 73..319 and 321. We are increasing the mainline flights, just like everyone else because there is money to be made.
No 75s coming to BNA because they are all tied up with HNL.. Central/South America/Caribbean. We dont have a whole lot of 75s left and they show their age


The union contract is where the maximum number of mainline flights is found buddy. When AA merged, they pulled their mainline below wing out with the understanding it would remain with Envoy and not exceed 25 mainline flights a day for a certain period. If it did, then the TWU Miami Local had rights to re-bid for the below wing operations and come back. That's a fact and I've been privy to the details and sat in the meetings about that at the local level. Would you like anything else?


[photoid][/photoid]
There are days coming up where we will have 25 or more mainline a day.. look for the trend to continue.


It must be over a prolonged period. It's always gone from 24-27 a day, but not sustained over a period stated in the contract.
Nashville, Tennessee KBNA
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Oct 30, 2019 4:47 am

So more G4 flights soon?
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
TYSflyer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Oct 30, 2019 4:00 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
So more G4 flights soon?

In my opinion, there are numerous small cities that can be added from BNA given their obvious early success in the market. They very quickly extended the schedule to these smaller markets such as CID. I suspect when G4 starts announcing their new routes for summer 2020 (announcements likely to be in early 2020) to see some new adds from BNA.
 
rexchase12
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Oct 30, 2019 5:18 pm

Anybody know how long 2L-20R will be closed?
 
ilovelamp
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Oct 30, 2019 5:41 pm

rexchase12 wrote:
Anybody know how long 2L-20R will be closed?


Currently scheduled to open on 12/13. That’s what the NOTAM says anyway.


ILL
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Oct 30, 2019 8:08 pm

ilovelamp wrote:
rexchase12 wrote:
Anybody know how long 2L-20R will be closed?


Currently scheduled to open on 12/13. That’s what the NOTAM says anyway.


ILL


That even causes us GA pilots to have issues during rush hour.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
rexchase12
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Oct 30, 2019 9:04 pm

ilovelamp wrote:
rexchase12 wrote:
Anybody know how long 2L-20R will be closed?


Currently scheduled to open on 12/13. That’s what the NOTAM says anyway.


ILL

Thanks. Happen to know what the construction on it is?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 02, 2019 3:53 pm

Pretty interesting, DL is adding the A220 to BNA-MSP/DTW next spring, BNA-DTW even goes up to 3x daily A220.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 02, 2019 4:21 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Pretty interesting, DL is adding the A220 to BNA-MSP/DTW next spring, BNA-DTW even goes up to 3x daily A220.


That’s weird, especially with DTW. I’d think that route needs more capacity. MSP is a better A220 route.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 02, 2019 4:25 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Pretty interesting, DL is adding the A220 to BNA-MSP/DTW next spring, BNA-DTW even goes up to 3x daily A220.


A decade post-merger, it’s easy to forget that BNA was one of NW’s stronger stations in the southeast. Unlike peer cities (CLT, RDU, SDF), BNA kept mainline staffing all the way to the merger. The outsized auto industry demand ex-BNA no doubt helped and helps.

And the A220 is probably the right airplane for BNA-MSP. NW ran a lot of D9S on the route even though they took nasty runway performance hits in the summer.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
dafunk10
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 02, 2019 8:05 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Pretty interesting, DL is adding the A220 to BNA-MSP/DTW next spring, BNA-DTW even goes up to 3x daily A220.


That’s weird, especially with DTW. I’d think that route needs more capacity. MSP is a better A220 route.



Would make sense if they’re replacing the 717 on that route. That said, I did a mock booking for a few dates in May and only saw 1 MSP route with the A220 (the first one out, which was on a CRJ I believe) and no DTW flights.

What dates are they starting??
 
Jshank83
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 02, 2019 8:08 pm

dafunk10 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Pretty interesting, DL is adding the A220 to BNA-MSP/DTW next spring, BNA-DTW even goes up to 3x daily A220.


That’s weird, especially with DTW. I’d think that route needs more capacity. MSP is a better A220 route.



Would make sense if they’re replacing the 717 on that route. That said, I did a mock booking for a few dates in May and only saw 1 MSP route with the A220 (the first one out, which was on a CRJ I believe) and no DTW flights.

What dates are they starting??


Look in march. March 20 has 3 to DTW
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 02, 2019 8:22 pm

dafunk10 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Pretty interesting, DL is adding the A220 to BNA-MSP/DTW next spring, BNA-DTW even goes up to 3x daily A220.


That’s weird, especially with DTW. I’d think that route needs more capacity. MSP is a better A220 route.



Would make sense if they’re replacing the 717 on that route. That said, I did a mock booking for a few dates in May and only saw 1 MSP route with the A220 (the first one out, which was on a CRJ I believe) and no DTW flights.

What dates are they starting??


I believe BNA-MSP has been all 717 since June.
 
Wacko55
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:07 pm

With the explosive growth at BNA it's just a matter of time before BA up gauges to a 777 or 747 right? Also why hasn't another carrier jumped on a TATL route?
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:14 pm

Wacko55 wrote:
With the explosive growth at BNA it's just a matter of time before BA up gauges to a 777 or 747 right? Also why hasn't another carrier jumped on a TATL route?


No, not enough demand yet for an upgauge to that level. Also, BNA can’t handle anything larger than a 787 at the moment.

The reason other carriers haven’t come is likely due to the fact BNA has a single FIS gate right now. Not enough room for multiple carriers arriving and departing at the same time. Once the new IAB is completed, I expect to see more TATL growth here.
 
Wacko55
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:19 pm

When is the IAB scheduled to be completed and how many gates will it have?
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:25 pm

Wacko55 wrote:
When is the IAB scheduled to be completed and how many gates will it have?


It is scheduled to start construction next year and be completed by 2023. It will have six gates, being able to accommodate up to six narrowbody or three widebody (77W/777x/A350 level) planes at once.
 
Wacko55
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:32 pm

That's disappointing having to wait another 3 years before any increase in wide body service. Hopefully the airport will do something short term to accommodate the growth.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:45 pm

Wacko55 wrote:
That's disappointing having to wait another 3 years before any increase in wide body service. Hopefully the airport will do something short term to accommodate the growth.


Since the growth has been so rapid, I think the MNAA has been caught off guard and as such, has not been very proactive in expediting the construction. We are already at the point where BNA Vision 1.0 should be wrapping up and Vision 2.0 (A rebuild and runway 2L extension) should be commencing, but 1.0 isn’t even halfway done yet. The most critical portions (Lobby Renovation/IAB and the terminal roadway improvements) haven’t even started yet.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 03, 2019 2:04 am

BNAMealer wrote:
Wacko55 wrote:
That's disappointing having to wait another 3 years before any increase in wide body service. Hopefully the airport will do something short term to accommodate the growth.


Since the growth has been so rapid, I think the MNAA has been caught off guard and as such, has not been very proactive in expediting the construction. We are already at the point where BNA Vision 1.0 should be wrapping up and Vision 2.0 (A rebuild and runway 2L extension) should be commencing, but 1.0 isn’t even halfway done yet. The most critical portions (Lobby Renovation/IAB and the terminal roadway improvements) haven’t even started yet.


I’m not sure what portion of the lobby renovation you’re waiting on, but there is most certainly structural steel going up on the north end and baggage claim has no ceiling.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 03, 2019 3:01 am

Cubsrule wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Wacko55 wrote:
That's disappointing having to wait another 3 years before any increase in wide body service. Hopefully the airport will do something short term to accommodate the growth.


Since the growth has been so rapid, I think the MNAA has been caught off guard and as such, has not been very proactive in expediting the construction. We are already at the point where BNA Vision 1.0 should be wrapping up and Vision 2.0 (A rebuild and runway 2L extension) should be commencing, but 1.0 isn’t even halfway done yet. The most critical portions (Lobby Renovation/IAB and the terminal roadway improvements) haven’t even started yet.


I’m not sure what portion of the lobby renovation you’re waiting on, but there is most certainly structural steel going up on the north end and baggage claim has no ceiling.


Indeed, but those are dealing with the ticketing wings (which as of yesterday when I saw things, the south side has only been framed out and not walked in yet). The departure level area of the lobby has not been touched much yet and nothing has been done to start the work of expanding the lobby out for the IAB.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:46 pm

I was told work on the terminal, mainly the ticketing lobby, will be kicking off early next year. The WN counter will be moved for a few weeks.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:15 am

I’m curious, does anyone know if DL or AA is the second largest airline at BNA? I know DL is larger by mainline, but including regional jets, which one carries more passengers?
 
reednavy
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:04 am

BNAMealer wrote:
I’m curious, does anyone know if DL or AA is the second largest airline at BNA? I know DL is larger by mainline, but including regional jets, which one carries more passengers?

Check the Wikipedia page for the airport. I’ve updated it before and Delta was 2nd, and has been for a little while.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 1:24 am

reednavy wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
I’m curious, does anyone know if DL or AA is the second largest airline at BNA? I know DL is larger by mainline, but including regional jets, which one carries more passengers?

Check the Wikipedia page for the airport. I’ve updated it before and Delta was 2nd, and has been for a little while.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


That links to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, those numbers do not include regional jets. Like I said, I know by purely mainline, DL would be #2, but I still think AA is #2 overall by virtue of regional jets as well and I was just curious if anyone could confirm.
 
dronezone
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 3:03 pm

Sun Country adding MSN-BNA starting in May 2020
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:20 pm

dronezone wrote:
Sun Country adding MSN-BNA starting in May 2020


City of Madison was begging for a flight to Nashville.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:24 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
dronezone wrote:
Sun Country adding MSN-BNA starting in May 2020


City of Madison was begging for a flight to Nashville.


I wish it was on DL or something.
 
ilovelamp
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 5:54 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
dronezone wrote:
Sun Country adding MSN-BNA starting in May 2020


City of Madison was begging for a flight to Nashville.


Why?


ILL
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:06 pm

ilovelamp wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
dronezone wrote:
Sun Country adding MSN-BNA starting in May 2020


City of Madison was begging for a flight to Nashville.


Why?


ILL


I’ll have to find the article, but they just really liked the tourism aspect.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
ilovelamp
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:41 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
ilovelamp wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:

City of Madison was begging for a flight to Nashville.


Why?


ILL


I’ll have to find the article, but they just really liked the tourism aspect.


No need to go dig for it. I’ll buy the tourism bit. Wasn’t sure if there was a business connection I missed.


ILL
 
bnatraveler
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:48 pm

There have been charters on DL back and forth in previous years for the Epic conference, but that is not likely to produce enough O&D for any network carrier to have any interest.
 
Lexy
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:28 pm

Delta is the second largest by passengers carried. Has been for about 4 years or so.
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 5:24 pm

When SkyWest opened their new fancy hangar, rumors from reliable sources told me that DL was looking to add potential SkyWest CRJ flights from BNA. Now that BNA is considered a focus city, I wonder if DL would send some OO CRJs on a few P2P routes out of BNA.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:22 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
When SkyWest opened their new fancy hangar, rumors from reliable sources told me that DL was looking to add potential SkyWest CRJ flights from BNA. Now that BNA is considered a focus city, I wonder if DL would send some OO CRJs on a few P2P routes out of BNA.


I wouldn't be surprised at all by this, I don't even see any DL OO departures from BNA next Summer, and only 1 or 2 in the spring. This could potentially mean they plan on using OO flying to add more routes, ex. BNA-MCO daily, BNA-AUS, BNA-MSY, and some other lower hanging fruit.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 7:56 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
When SkyWest opened their new fancy hangar, rumors from reliable sources told me that DL was looking to add potential SkyWest CRJ flights from BNA. Now that BNA is considered a focus city, I wonder if DL would send some OO CRJs on a few P2P routes out of BNA.


I wouldn't be surprised at all by this, I don't even see any DL OO departures from BNA next Summer, and only 1 or 2 in the spring. This could potentially mean they plan on using OO flying to add more routes, ex. BNA-MCO daily, BNA-AUS, BNA-MSY, and some other lower hanging fruit.


I don’t see this happening at all. They won’t go up against WN on those routes and they’d likely lose a ton of money.
 
tphuang
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:02 pm

Don't forget NK. They are going to be in a lot of these markets with all those new planes coming in for 2020 and 2021. And they are specifically targeting major WN stations.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:50 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
When SkyWest opened their new fancy hangar, rumors from reliable sources told me that DL was looking to add potential SkyWest CRJ flights from BNA. Now that BNA is considered a focus city, I wonder if DL would send some OO CRJs on a few P2P routes out of BNA.


I wouldn't be surprised at all by this, I don't even see any DL OO departures from BNA next Summer, and only 1 or 2 in the spring. This could potentially mean they plan on using OO flying to add more routes, ex. BNA-MCO daily, BNA-AUS, BNA-MSY, and some other lower hanging fruit.


I don’t see this happening at all. They won’t go up against WN on those routes and they’d likely lose a ton of money.


I don't interpret it this way, this isn't like DL would be trying something like PHX-DFW; BNA, MCO, MSY, and to a lesser extent AUS all are sizable stations for DL. Furthermore, DL has the advantage over WN in terms of corporate accounts, meaning they would have a leg up over WN in tailoring to business travelers in these markets even considering the fact they are weaker in terms of Market Share. In fact I don't believe there is a single current DL route from BNA where h2h DL doesn't have a significant fare premium over WN.

BNA-MCO:
1. MCO is a large station for DL, and served seasonally already.
2. Take into account that MCO-RDU/CVG/IND are run daily or multiple times daily year-round, and it shouldn't be a surprise that DL could likely replicate that in BNA.
2a. The obvious counter to this would be that WN is bigger in BNA than any of those cities, meaning more competition would deter DL. However, if you compare BNA-MCO to IND-MCO, the routes are quite similar in terms of WN+ULCC flights, yet DL has been able to run IND-MCO successfully for years.
3. DL already captures 30-40 PDEW worth of passengers on BNA-MCO, adding n/s service would easily stimulate (or shift) passengers to DL's n/s service

BNA-MSY/AUS:
1. Drawing off DL's strengths in these markets, adding BNA-MSY/AUS would give DL great coverage of the south from BNA with RDU/ATL already being served. Which would further help DL secure corporate contracts in the region.
2. There aren't many DL data points on these routes since BNA-ATL-MSY/AUS is really the only logical connection people can make if they want to take DL.

Furthermore, WN is not in a position to retaliate to any DL advances in the market given their fleet situation. Lastly, some CR9s to MSY/AUS/MCO hardly pose a thread to WN at BNA and even if WN were to retaliate in some way, DL will be able to handle it given how they have entered more challenging markets from RDU, BOS, SEA, e.t.c
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:04 am

Midwestindy wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

I wouldn't be surprised at all by this, I don't even see any DL OO departures from BNA next Summer, and only 1 or 2 in the spring. This could potentially mean they plan on using OO flying to add more routes, ex. BNA-MCO daily, BNA-AUS, BNA-MSY, and some other lower hanging fruit.


I don’t see this happening at all. They won’t go up against WN on those routes and they’d likely lose a ton of money.


I don't interpret it this way, this isn't like DL would be trying something like PHX-DFW; BNA, MCO, MSY, and to a lesser extent AUS all are sizable stations for DL. Furthermore, DL has the advantage over WN in terms of corporate accounts, meaning they would have a leg up over WN in tailoring to business travelers in these markets even considering the fact they are weaker in terms of Market Share. In fact I don't believe there is a single current DL route from BNA where h2h DL doesn't have a significant fare premium over WN.

BNA-MCO:
1. MCO is a large station for DL, and served seasonally already.
2. Take into account that MCO-RDU/CVG/IND are run daily or multiple times daily year-round, and it shouldn't be a surprise that DL could likely replicate that in BNA.
2a. The obvious counter to this would be that WN is bigger in BNA than any of those cities, meaning more competition would deter DL. However, if you compare BNA-MCO to IND-MCO, the routes are quite similar in terms of WN+ULCC flights, yet DL has been able to run IND-MCO successfully for years.
3. DL already captures 30-40 PDEW worth of passengers on BNA-MCO, adding n/s service would easily stimulate (or shift) passengers to DL's n/s service

BNA-MSY/AUS:
1. Drawing off DL's strengths in these markets, adding BNA-MSY/AUS would give DL great coverage of the south from BNA with RDU/ATL already being served. Which would further help DL secure corporate contracts in the region.
2. There aren't many DL data points on these routes since BNA-ATL-MSY/AUS is really the only logical connection people can make if they want to take DL.

Furthermore, WN is not in a position to retaliate to any DL advances in the market given their fleet situation. Lastly, some CR9s to MSY/AUS/MCO hardly pose a thread to WN at BNA and even if WN were to retaliate in some way, DL will be able to handle it given how they have entered more challenging markets from RDU, BOS, SEA, e.t.c


Did WN react to DL entering BNA-RDU at all? I don’t remember much, and that was pre-MAX issues.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:35 am

Midwestindy wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

I wouldn't be surprised at all by this, I don't even see any DL OO departures from BNA next Summer, and only 1 or 2 in the spring. This could potentially mean they plan on using OO flying to add more routes, ex. BNA-MCO daily, BNA-AUS, BNA-MSY, and some other lower hanging fruit.


I don’t see this happening at all. They won’t go up against WN on those routes and they’d likely lose a ton of money.


I don't interpret it this way, this isn't like DL would be trying something like PHX-DFW; BNA, MCO, MSY, and to a lesser extent AUS all are sizable stations for DL. Furthermore, DL has the advantage over WN in terms of corporate accounts, meaning they would have a leg up over WN in tailoring to business travelers in these markets even considering the fact they are weaker in terms of Market Share. In fact I don't believe there is a single current DL route from BNA where h2h DL doesn't have a significant fare premium over WN.

BNA-MCO:
1. MCO is a large station for DL, and served seasonally already.
2. Take into account that MCO-RDU/CVG/IND are run daily or multiple times daily year-round, and it shouldn't be a surprise that DL could likely replicate that in BNA.
2a. The obvious counter to this would be that WN is bigger in BNA than any of those cities, meaning more competition would deter DL. However, if you compare BNA-MCO to IND-MCO, the routes are quite similar in terms of WN+ULCC flights, yet DL has been able to run IND-MCO successfully for years.
3. DL already captures 30-40 PDEW worth of passengers on BNA-MCO, adding n/s service would easily stimulate (or shift) passengers to DL's n/s service

BNA-MSY/AUS:
1. Drawing off DL's strengths in these markets, adding BNA-MSY/AUS would give DL great coverage of the south from BNA with RDU/ATL already being served. Which would further help DL secure corporate contracts in the region.
2. There aren't many DL data points on these routes since BNA-ATL-MSY/AUS is really the only logical connection people can make if they want to take DL.

Furthermore, WN is not in a position to retaliate to any DL advances in the market given their fleet situation. Lastly, some CR9s to MSY/AUS/MCO hardly pose a thread to WN at BNA and even if WN were to retaliate in some way, DL will be able to handle it given how they have entered more challenging markets from RDU, BOS, SEA, e.t.c


I could also see a CRJ between BNA and IND.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
tphuang
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:41 am

Midwestindy wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

I wouldn't be surprised at all by this, I don't even see any DL OO departures from BNA next Summer, and only 1 or 2 in the spring. This could potentially mean they plan on using OO flying to add more routes, ex. BNA-MCO daily, BNA-AUS, BNA-MSY, and some other lower hanging fruit.


I don’t see this happening at all. They won’t go up against WN on those routes and they’d likely lose a ton of money.


I don't interpret it this way, this isn't like DL would be trying something like PHX-DFW; BNA, MCO, MSY, and to a lesser extent AUS all are sizable stations for DL. Furthermore, DL has the advantage over WN in terms of corporate accounts, meaning they would have a leg up over WN in tailoring to business travelers in these markets even considering the fact they are weaker in terms of Market Share. In fact I don't believe there is a single current DL route from BNA where h2h DL doesn't have a significant fare premium over WN.

BNA-MCO:
1. MCO is a large station for DL, and served seasonally already.
2. Take into account that MCO-RDU/CVG/IND are run daily or multiple times daily year-round, and it shouldn't be a surprise that DL could likely replicate that in BNA.
2a. The obvious counter to this would be that WN is bigger in BNA than any of those cities, meaning more competition would deter DL. However, if you compare BNA-MCO to IND-MCO, the routes are quite similar in terms of WN+ULCC flights, yet DL has been able to run IND-MCO successfully for years.
3. DL already captures 30-40 PDEW worth of passengers on BNA-MCO, adding n/s service would easily stimulate (or shift) passengers to DL's n/s service

BNA-MSY/AUS:
1. Drawing off DL's strengths in these markets, adding BNA-MSY/AUS would give DL great coverage of the south from BNA with RDU/ATL already being served. Which would further help DL secure corporate contracts in the region.
2. There aren't many DL data points on these routes since BNA-ATL-MSY/AUS is really the only logical connection people can make if they want to take DL.

Furthermore, WN is not in a position to retaliate to any DL advances in the market given their fleet situation. Lastly, some CR9s to MSY/AUS/MCO hardly pose a thread to WN at BNA and even if WN were to retaliate in some way, DL will be able to handle it given how they have entered more challenging markets from RDU, BOS, SEA, e.t.c


These are not large market. And with nk in these markets, they are taking a lot of o and d dragging down the fares in these markets. They are just not great opportunities.

And given the yield I have seen them generate to boston and Seattle, those are all quite a bit below system average in margins. It's not clear to me why delta would want to have more routes like that out of bna.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:25 am

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:

I don’t see this happening at all. They won’t go up against WN on those routes and they’d likely lose a ton of money.


I don't interpret it this way, this isn't like DL would be trying something like PHX-DFW; BNA, MCO, MSY, and to a lesser extent AUS all are sizable stations for DL. Furthermore, DL has the advantage over WN in terms of corporate accounts, meaning they would have a leg up over WN in tailoring to business travelers in these markets even considering the fact they are weaker in terms of Market Share. In fact I don't believe there is a single current DL route from BNA where h2h DL doesn't have a significant fare premium over WN.

BNA-MCO:
1. MCO is a large station for DL, and served seasonally already.
2. Take into account that MCO-RDU/CVG/IND are run daily or multiple times daily year-round, and it shouldn't be a surprise that DL could likely replicate that in BNA.
2a. The obvious counter to this would be that WN is bigger in BNA than any of those cities, meaning more competition would deter DL. However, if you compare BNA-MCO to IND-MCO, the routes are quite similar in terms of WN+ULCC flights, yet DL has been able to run IND-MCO successfully for years.
3. DL already captures 30-40 PDEW worth of passengers on BNA-MCO, adding n/s service would easily stimulate (or shift) passengers to DL's n/s service

BNA-MSY/AUS:
1. Drawing off DL's strengths in these markets, adding BNA-MSY/AUS would give DL great coverage of the south from BNA with RDU/ATL already being served. Which would further help DL secure corporate contracts in the region.
2. There aren't many DL data points on these routes since BNA-ATL-MSY/AUS is really the only logical connection people can make if they want to take DL.

Furthermore, WN is not in a position to retaliate to any DL advances in the market given their fleet situation. Lastly, some CR9s to MSY/AUS/MCO hardly pose a thread to WN at BNA and even if WN were to retaliate in some way, DL will be able to handle it given how they have entered more challenging markets from RDU, BOS, SEA, e.t.c


These are not large market. And with nk in these markets, they are taking a lot of o and d dragging down the fares in these markets. They are just not great opportunities.

And given the yield I have seen them generate to boston and Seattle, those are all quite a bit below system average in margins. It's not clear to me why delta would want to have more routes like that out of bna.


This. DL wouldn’t get a revenue premium in these markets because there is too much competition between the likes of WN and NK.

I really don’t see any DL p2p CRJ flying out of BNA, but I could be wrong. I have to wonder what Doug Kreulen was talking about with DL executives when he was meeting with them a couple of weeks ago.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:37 am

BNAMealer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

I don't interpret it this way, this isn't like DL would be trying something like PHX-DFW; BNA, MCO, MSY, and to a lesser extent AUS all are sizable stations for DL. Furthermore, DL has the advantage over WN in terms of corporate accounts, meaning they would have a leg up over WN in tailoring to business travelers in these markets even considering the fact they are weaker in terms of Market Share. In fact I don't believe there is a single current DL route from BNA where h2h DL doesn't have a significant fare premium over WN.

BNA-MCO:
1. MCO is a large station for DL, and served seasonally already.
2. Take into account that MCO-RDU/CVG/IND are run daily or multiple times daily year-round, and it shouldn't be a surprise that DL could likely replicate that in BNA.
2a. The obvious counter to this would be that WN is bigger in BNA than any of those cities, meaning more competition would deter DL. However, if you compare BNA-MCO to IND-MCO, the routes are quite similar in terms of WN+ULCC flights, yet DL has been able to run IND-MCO successfully for years.
3. DL already captures 30-40 PDEW worth of passengers on BNA-MCO, adding n/s service would easily stimulate (or shift) passengers to DL's n/s service

BNA-MSY/AUS:
1. Drawing off DL's strengths in these markets, adding BNA-MSY/AUS would give DL great coverage of the south from BNA with RDU/ATL already being served. Which would further help DL secure corporate contracts in the region.
2. There aren't many DL data points on these routes since BNA-ATL-MSY/AUS is really the only logical connection people can make if they want to take DL.

Furthermore, WN is not in a position to retaliate to any DL advances in the market given their fleet situation. Lastly, some CR9s to MSY/AUS/MCO hardly pose a thread to WN at BNA and even if WN were to retaliate in some way, DL will be able to handle it given how they have entered more challenging markets from RDU, BOS, SEA, e.t.c


These are not large market. And with nk in these markets, they are taking a lot of o and d dragging down the fares in these markets. They are just not great opportunities.

And given the yield I have seen them generate to boston and Seattle, those are all quite a bit below system average in margins. It's not clear to me why delta would want to have more routes like that out of bna.


This. DL wouldn’t get a revenue premium in these markets because there is too much competition between the likes of WN and NK.

I really don’t see any DL p2p CRJ flying out of BNA, but I could be wrong. I have to wonder what Doug Kreulen was talking about with DL executives when he was meeting with them a couple of weeks ago.


My guesses were SkyClub and TATL talks.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 5351
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:18 am

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:

I don’t see this happening at all. They won’t go up against WN on those routes and they’d likely lose a ton of money.


I don't interpret it this way, this isn't like DL would be trying something like PHX-DFW; BNA, MCO, MSY, and to a lesser extent AUS all are sizable stations for DL. Furthermore, DL has the advantage over WN in terms of corporate accounts, meaning they would have a leg up over WN in tailoring to business travelers in these markets even considering the fact they are weaker in terms of Market Share. In fact I don't believe there is a single current DL route from BNA where h2h DL doesn't have a significant fare premium over WN.

BNA-MCO:
1. MCO is a large station for DL, and served seasonally already.
2. Take into account that MCO-RDU/CVG/IND are run daily or multiple times daily year-round, and it shouldn't be a surprise that DL could likely replicate that in BNA.
2a. The obvious counter to this would be that WN is bigger in BNA than any of those cities, meaning more competition would deter DL. However, if you compare BNA-MCO to IND-MCO, the routes are quite similar in terms of WN+ULCC flights, yet DL has been able to run IND-MCO successfully for years.
3. DL already captures 30-40 PDEW worth of passengers on BNA-MCO, adding n/s service would easily stimulate (or shift) passengers to DL's n/s service

BNA-MSY/AUS:
1. Drawing off DL's strengths in these markets, adding BNA-MSY/AUS would give DL great coverage of the south from BNA with RDU/ATL already being served. Which would further help DL secure corporate contracts in the region.
2. There aren't many DL data points on these routes since BNA-ATL-MSY/AUS is really the only logical connection people can make if they want to take DL.

Furthermore, WN is not in a position to retaliate to any DL advances in the market given their fleet situation. Lastly, some CR9s to MSY/AUS/MCO hardly pose a thread to WN at BNA and even if WN were to retaliate in some way, DL will be able to handle it given how they have entered more challenging markets from RDU, BOS, SEA, e.t.c


These are not large market. And with nk in these markets, they are taking a lot of o and d dragging down the fares in these markets. They are just not great opportunities.

And given the yield I have seen them generate to boston and Seattle, those are all quite a bit below system average in margins. It's not clear to me why delta would want to have more routes like that out of bna.


You can't generate higher yields until you generate brand loyalty, you do this in part by increasing service in a market (the point of a focus city)....so that is why DL would be interested in flights like these.

BNAMealer wrote:
This. DL wouldn’t get a revenue premium in these markets because there is too much competition between the likes of WN and NK.


Competition from WN/NK wouldn't negate DL's ability to gain a fare premium over WN & NK.

-While DL might chose to compete on basic economy pricing 2-5 months from departure, a majority of DL's tickets would be purchased relatively close in where basic economy is not available and tickets are significantly more expensive.

-DL would have the advantage in tickets purchased close-in, as business travelers are generally the ones booking close-in tickets and are not price sensitive and will usually prefer upgrade availability.

-Looking at BNA-AUS Q2 2019 there were 64 PDEW paying over $300 each-way, presumably many of which were business travelers purchasing tickets close-in to their departure date. Now, while DL will not capture all of this close-in demand, it is highly likely that they would be able to tap into a significant portion of it, thus meaning there is strong potential for a route like this to be viable.

southwest1675 wrote:
I could also see a CRJ between BNA and IND.


Unfortunately it looks like Contour is the one who will add service, so probably no DL unless the flights do really well. There seems to be sizable corporate demand between the cities that isn't visible since people are driving, but for example one accounting firm has 6-10 people a day driving between IND & BNA for a large portion of the year.
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dronezone
Posts: 31
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2016 6:45 pm

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:48 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:

I don’t see this happening at all. They won’t go up against WN on those routes and they’d likely lose a ton of money.


I don't interpret it this way, this isn't like DL would be trying something like PHX-DFW; BNA, MCO, MSY, and to a lesser extent AUS all are sizable stations for DL. Furthermore, DL has the advantage over WN in terms of corporate accounts, meaning they would have a leg up over WN in tailoring to business travelers in these markets even considering the fact they are weaker in terms of Market Share. In fact I don't believe there is a single current DL route from BNA where h2h DL doesn't have a significant fare premium over WN.

BNA-MCO:
1. MCO is a large station for DL, and served seasonally already.
2. Take into account that MCO-RDU/CVG/IND are run daily or multiple times daily year-round, and it shouldn't be a surprise that DL could likely replicate that in BNA.
2a. The obvious counter to this would be that WN is bigger in BNA than any of those cities, meaning more competition would deter DL. However, if you compare BNA-MCO to IND-MCO, the routes are quite similar in terms of WN+ULCC flights, yet DL has been able to run IND-MCO successfully for years.
3. DL already captures 30-40 PDEW worth of passengers on BNA-MCO, adding n/s service would easily stimulate (or shift) passengers to DL's n/s service

BNA-MSY/AUS:
1. Drawing off DL's strengths in these markets, adding BNA-MSY/AUS would give DL great coverage of the south from BNA with RDU/ATL already being served. Which would further help DL secure corporate contracts in the region.
2. There aren't many DL data points on these routes since BNA-ATL-MSY/AUS is really the only logical connection people can make if they want to take DL.

Furthermore, WN is not in a position to retaliate to any DL advances in the market given their fleet situation. Lastly, some CR9s to MSY/AUS/MCO hardly pose a thread to WN at BNA and even if WN were to retaliate in some way, DL will be able to handle it given how they have entered more challenging markets from RDU, BOS, SEA, e.t.c


I could also see a CRJ between BNA and IND.


I think this would be a welcome addition.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14550
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:13 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Competition from WN/NK wouldn't negate DL's ability to gain a fare premium over WN & NK.

-While DL might chose to compete on basic economy pricing 2-5 months from departure, a majority of DL's tickets would be purchased relatively close in where basic economy is not available and tickets are significantly more expensive.

-DL would have the advantage in tickets purchased close-in, as business travelers are generally the ones booking close-in tickets and are not price sensitive and will usually prefer upgrade availability.

-Looking at BNA-AUS Q2 2019 there were 64 PDEW paying over $300 each-way, presumably many of which were business travelers purchasing tickets close-in to their departure date. Now, while DL will not capture all of this close-in demand, it is highly likely that they would be able to tap into a significant portion of it, thus meaning there is strong potential for a route like this to be viable.


Keeping in mind that most of the passengers that DL would target with BNA-AUS have WN status (as one of my partners says, "I don't like WN but I like flying nonstop"), I'm not sure the fare premium is as sure a bet as you think. First, for close-in purchases WN is actually better because people with status are guaranteed a non-terrible seat. As upgrades on DL become rarer and rarer, I don't see the chance of an upgarde as as much of a driver of demand as it used to be. That's especially the case for those of us who buy fewer than 5 days in advance, when upgrades have already started to clear.

Also, WN will retain a huge schedule advantage by virtue of having hubs with high frequency close to AUS. If the nonstop doesn't work on DL, ATL is pretty much the only viable connecting point. On WN, there are as many as 5 (DAL, IAH, STL, ATL, MSY).

DL's realistic goal in a place like BNA is to become the "legacy of choice," not the sole choice for even the best passengers. P2P CRJ routes move the needle a little on that, but probably not much.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
tphuang
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:10 pm

Midwestindy wrote:

You can't generate higher yields until you generate brand loyalty, you do this in part by increasing service in a market (the point of a focus city)....so that is why DL would be interested in flights like these.

Adding a couple of flights against an airline that's not strapped for cash and have plenty of market share is not going to get them to higher yield. They already capture good portion of ff due to proximity of ATL and their one-stop international flight options. They would have to add a whole lot of flights if they want to get to a point where they get higher Point of sale out of BNA. This kind of mirrors their other "focus cities" of SJC and AUS. Do they have gates to add enough flights to be competitive. And do they have the desire to have a big fight with WN? Up to this point, it seems to me DL has avoided full frontal assault on one of AA/UA/WN's major stations. And even if it's willing to fight with, it seems like AUS is a higher priority to them.

Competition from WN/NK wouldn't negate DL's ability to gain a fare premium over WN & NK.

-While DL might chose to compete on basic economy pricing 2-5 months from departure, a majority of DL's tickets would be purchased relatively close in where basic economy is not available and tickets are significantly more expensive.

-DL would have the advantage in tickets purchased close-in, as business travelers are generally the ones booking close-in tickets and are not price sensitive and will usually prefer upgrade availability.

-Looking at BNA-AUS Q2 2019 there were 64 PDEW paying over $300 each-way, presumably many of which were business travelers purchasing tickets close-in to their departure date. Now, while DL will not capture all of this close-in demand, it is highly likely that they would be able to tap into a significant portion of it, thus meaning there is strong potential for a route like this to be viable.


DL got revenue premium of 5 to 10% on a route like BOS-BNA because it's operating RJ vs A320/B737 type of aircraft. The cost difference between that is humongous. Hard to see how it can get revenue premium if it was operating A320/B737 on this type of routes. I mean you've seen their fares on BOS-BNA and BOS-IND, the gap is pretty large. How much money do you think they are making when averaging $195 on non-stop itinerary and 83% LF on a regional jet flying 942 miles?

And that's likely what will happen when it adds BNA to places like AUS/MCO. Just the mere presence of NK will bring down the fare overall by taking a lot of price sensitive demand that would otherwise connect at ATL or chase the cheapest available non stop fare. When there are less demand left for DL/WN, their fares will also suffer.

Over the next 2 years, NK is adding a lot of capacity. WN will also do that once MAX comes back online. Fundamentally, a lot of major WN is going to get invaded by NK. It's hard for me to see DL wanting to get in the middle of that. I don't see the strategic value of BNA in their network.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 3557
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:23 pm

I don't exactly get the thoughts in the thread sometimes.

On one hand, BNA is growing like crazy and people want a bunch of new routes added because of it.

On the other, There is no way DL could do well on other routes.

I think DL would do just fine strategically adding some business routes. They don't have to go full blown hub, just pick and choose routes that had decent DL demand on both ends and the business community wants. If they do add a TATL flight like most people have decided is a foregone conclusion, wouldn't it make sense to add other offerings and that way you can get some business traffic away from the other airlines. I don't think anyone is saying DL is going to grow and to some WN level but as Cubsrule mentioned "as one of my partners says, "I don't like WN but I like flying nonstop"" to me means DL could get some traction if they are smart about it.

It seems like some people are all about growth until you even suggest anyone could go up against WN on some routes even a little bit. There is plenty of demand to go around. If WN has 3 daily routes instead of 4 on some segment because DL wants to add it, then that is okay. Competition is better for the traveler.
 
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southwest1675
Posts: 1501
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:03 pm

Here’s one to lighten up a little. What’s one nonstop route you wish BNA had? I’ll start with ABQ. Surprised G4 or WN hasn’t picked this one up yet. I fly there 2-3 times a year to visit an old friend, and some of the connections get a little old.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019

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