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Midwestindy
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:08 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Keeping in mind that most of the passengers that DL would target with BNA-AUS have WN status (as one of my partners says, "I don't like WN but I like flying nonstop"), I'm not sure the fare premium is as sure a bet as you think. First, for close-in purchases WN is actually better because people with status are guaranteed a non-terrible seat. As upgrades on DL become rarer and rarer, I don't see the chance of an upgarde as as much of a driver of demand as it used to be. That's especially the case for those of us who buy fewer than 5 days in advance, when upgrades have already started to clear.


That is why DL was hiring for Corporate Sales positions a year or so ago, if they are doing their job they are capturing corporate accounts in the area. WN struggles in terms of F500 corporate accounts because of their lack of int'l presence, and corporate accounts drive a large amount of air travel decisions. If DL does decide to add AMS, that would be major in terms of securing corporate accounts in the region.

If DL secures significant accounts in the region, personal preferences won't matter as travelers will be required to take DL nonstop per company policy.

Jshank83 wrote:
I don't exactly get the thoughts in the thread sometimes.

On one hand, BNA is growing like crazy and people want a bunch of new routes added because of it.

On the other, There is no way DL could do well on other routes.

I think DL would do just fine strategically adding some business routes. They don't have to go full blown hub, just pick and choose routes that had decent DL demand on both ends and the business community wants. If they do add a TATL flight like most people have decided is a foregone conclusion, wouldn't it make sense to add other offerings and that way you can get some business traffic away from the other airlines. I don't think anyone is saying DL is going to grow and to some WN level but as Cubsrule mentioned "as one of my partners says, "I don't like WN but I like flying nonstop"" to me means DL could get some traction if they are smart about it.

It seems like some people are all about growth until you even suggest anyone could go up against WN on some routes even a little bit. There is plenty of demand to go around. If WN has 3 daily routes instead of 4 on some segment because DL wants to add it, then that is okay. Competition is better for the traveler.


:checkmark:

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

You can't generate higher yields until you generate brand loyalty, you do this in part by increasing service in a market (the point of a focus city)....so that is why DL would be interested in flights like these.

Adding a couple of flights against an airline that's not strapped for cash and have plenty of market share is not going to get them to higher yield. They already capture good portion of ff due to proximity of ATL and their one-stop international flight options. They would have to add a whole lot of flights if they want to get to a point where they get higher Point of sale out of BNA. This kind of mirrors their other "focus cities" of SJC and AUS. Do they have gates to add enough flights to be competitive. And do they have the desire to have a big fight with WN? Up to this point, it seems to me DL has avoided full frontal assault on one of AA/UA/WN's major stations. And even if it's willing to fight with, it seems like AUS is a higher priority to them.

Competition from WN/NK wouldn't negate DL's ability to gain a fare premium over WN & NK.

-While DL might chose to compete on basic economy pricing 2-5 months from departure, a majority of DL's tickets would be purchased relatively close in where basic economy is not available and tickets are significantly more expensive.

-DL would have the advantage in tickets purchased close-in, as business travelers are generally the ones booking close-in tickets and are not price sensitive and will usually prefer upgrade availability.

-Looking at BNA-AUS Q2 2019 there were 64 PDEW paying over $300 each-way, presumably many of which were business travelers purchasing tickets close-in to their departure date. Now, while DL will not capture all of this close-in demand, it is highly likely that they would be able to tap into a significant portion of it, thus meaning there is strong potential for a route like this to be viable.


DL got revenue premium of 5 to 10% on a route like BOS-BNA because it's operating RJ vs A320/B737 type of aircraft. The cost difference between that is humongous. Hard to see how it can get revenue premium if it was operating A320/B737 on this type of routes. I mean you've seen their fares on BOS-BNA and BOS-IND, the gap is pretty large. How much money do you think they are making when averaging $195 on non-stop itinerary and 83% LF on a regional jet flying 942 miles?

And that's likely what will happen when it adds BNA to places like AUS/MCO. Just the mere presence of NK will bring down the fare overall by taking a lot of price sensitive demand that would otherwise connect at ATL or chase the cheapest available non stop fare. When there are less demand left for DL/WN, their fares will also suffer.

Over the next 2 years, NK is adding a lot of capacity. WN will also do that once MAX comes back online. Fundamentally, a lot of major WN is going to get invaded by NK. It's hard for me to see DL wanting to get in the middle of that. I don't see the strategic value of BNA in their network.


They would not need to add a whole bunch of flights for greater POS strength, DL has an inherent strength over WN due to its international network. Not to rehash what I have already posted, but DL is much stronger than WN in terms of corporate sales. It's a major reason why WN has become weaker in IND after DL added IND-CDG, if DL were to add BNA-AMS DL would gain significant leverage. To be clear though, WN and DL can coexist, their fundamental goals serve two different markets with a bit of overlap in the middle.
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Cubsrule
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:17 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Keeping in mind that most of the passengers that DL would target with BNA-AUS have WN status (as one of my partners says, "I don't like WN but I like flying nonstop"), I'm not sure the fare premium is as sure a bet as you think. First, for close-in purchases WN is actually better because people with status are guaranteed a non-terrible seat. As upgrades on DL become rarer and rarer, I don't see the chance of an upgarde as as much of a driver of demand as it used to be. That's especially the case for those of us who buy fewer than 5 days in advance, when upgrades have already started to clear.


That is why DL was hiring for Corporate Sales positions a year or so ago, if they are doing their job they are capturing corporate accounts in the area. WN struggles in terms of F500 corporate accounts because of their lack of int'l presence, and corporate accounts drive a large amount of air travel decisions. If DL does decide to add AMS, that would be major in terms of securing corporate accounts in the region.

If DL secures significant accounts in the region, personal preferences won't matter as travelers will be required to take DL nonstop per company policy.


Maybe we don't disagree much. I see BNA-AMS (or CDG) as a potential game changer for corporate contracts for Nashville-centric companies. I do not see BNA-AUS/MSY/IND/MCO/whatever moving the needle that much.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
tphuang
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:11 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

You can't generate higher yields until you generate brand loyalty, you do this in part by increasing service in a market (the point of a focus city)....so that is why DL would be interested in flights like these.

Adding a couple of flights against an airline that's not strapped for cash and have plenty of market share is not going to get them to higher yield. They already capture good portion of ff due to proximity of ATL and their one-stop international flight options. They would have to add a whole lot of flights if they want to get to a point where they get higher Point of sale out of BNA. This kind of mirrors their other "focus cities" of SJC and AUS. Do they have gates to add enough flights to be competitive. And do they have the desire to have a big fight with WN? Up to this point, it seems to me DL has avoided full frontal assault on one of AA/UA/WN's major stations. And even if it's willing to fight with, it seems like AUS is a higher priority to them.

Competition from WN/NK wouldn't negate DL's ability to gain a fare premium over WN & NK.

-While DL might chose to compete on basic economy pricing 2-5 months from departure, a majority of DL's tickets would be purchased relatively close in where basic economy is not available and tickets are significantly more expensive.

-DL would have the advantage in tickets purchased close-in, as business travelers are generally the ones booking close-in tickets and are not price sensitive and will usually prefer upgrade availability.

-Looking at BNA-AUS Q2 2019 there were 64 PDEW paying over $300 each-way, presumably many of which were business travelers purchasing tickets close-in to their departure date. Now, while DL will not capture all of this close-in demand, it is highly likely that they would be able to tap into a significant portion of it, thus meaning there is strong potential for a route like this to be viable.


DL got revenue premium of 5 to 10% on a route like BOS-BNA because it's operating RJ vs A320/B737 type of aircraft. The cost difference between that is humongous. Hard to see how it can get revenue premium if it was operating A320/B737 on this type of routes. I mean you've seen their fares on BOS-BNA and BOS-IND, the gap is pretty large. How much money do you think they are making when averaging $195 on non-stop itinerary and 83% LF on a regional jet flying 942 miles?

And that's likely what will happen when it adds BNA to places like AUS/MCO. Just the mere presence of NK will bring down the fare overall by taking a lot of price sensitive demand that would otherwise connect at ATL or chase the cheapest available non stop fare. When there are less demand left for DL/WN, their fares will also suffer.

Over the next 2 years, NK is adding a lot of capacity. WN will also do that once MAX comes back online. Fundamentally, a lot of major WN is going to get invaded by NK. It's hard for me to see DL wanting to get in the middle of that. I don't see the strategic value of BNA in their network.


They would not need to add a whole bunch of flights for greater POS strength, DL has an inherent strength over WN due to its international network. Not to rehash what I have already posted, but DL is much stronger than WN in terms of corporate sales. It's a major reason why WN has become weaker in IND after DL added IND-CDG, if DL were to add BNA-AMS DL would gain significant leverage. To be clear though, WN and DL can coexist, their fundamental goals serve two different markets with a bit of overlap in the middle.


I don't think IND is the best proxy to measure BNA, since WN is a lot stronger at BNA than at IND. It also has a lot more connection itinerary to fill the aircraft. Do you have any proof that DL is much stronger than WN in corporate sales out of BNA?

It doesn't seem clear to me how many additional ff DL would get by adding a few more P2P routes. They might get more from adding BNA-AMS, but they are battling AA/BA JV for the crowd that really needs TATL flying. There is no desire in DL to build BNA into a full blown hub. And if adding a few domestic P2P routes are not bringing DL added value, then there doesn't seem to be a lot of reasons for them to do it. DL is most profitable at BNA with its current level of flying.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:45 pm

I also might add that I wouldn’t take it as a forgone conclusion that DL will be the legacy of choice here long term. While they may have surpassed AA for now, one regime change at AA and they could easily fight back and regain it. Here’s why.

1. For one stop options, AA’s hubs at CLT, ORD and DFW offer far more connectivity than DL in ATL, DTW and MSP. Yes, DL flies more mainline, but all AA would have to do is some upgauging and add PHX and they are golden.

2. Even when DL adds TATL to AMS or CDG, the AA/BA jv will have the advantage because LHR has far more O&D and will be flown on newer 787’s that will have the J cabin refurbished soon. DL would likely fly old 767’s and who knows when those will be replaced.

3. DL is expanding the Sky Club soon, which will give them an advantage in the short term, but AA will have an opportunity to respond by building a whole new Admirals Club when A is rebuilt (which will happen shortly following the conclusion of the current work). Who knows what they could do there.

4. Finally, BNA wants a TYO flight, and I believe it will happen someday. The most logical candidate is JL on a 787. Guess who the jv partner of JL is? That’s right, AA. How will DL respond to that?

Between LHR/NRT, good connectivity to hubs and a new expanded Admirals Club, AA could lock up a lot of corporate contracts and become the legacy of choice in BNA. The question is will they care enough to do so.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:48 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
I also might add that I wouldn’t take it as a forgone conclusion that DL will be the legacy of choice here long term. While they may have surpassed AA for now, one regime change at AA and they could easily fight back and regain it. Here’s why.

1. For one stop options, AA’s hubs at CLT, ORD and DFW offer far more connectivity than DL in ATL, DTW and MSP. Yes, DL flies more mainline, but all AA would have to do is some upgauging and add PHX and they are golden.

2. Even when DL adds TATL to AMS or CDG, the AA/BA jv will have the advantage because LHR has far more O&D and will be flown on newer 787’s that will have the J cabin refurbished soon. DL would likely fly old 767’s and who knows when those will be replaced.

3. DL is expanding the Sky Club soon, which will give them an advantage in the short term, but AA will have an opportunity to respond by building a whole new Admirals Club when A is rebuilt (which will happen shortly following the conclusion of the current work). Who knows what they could do there.

4. Finally, BNA wants a TYO flight, and I believe it will happen someday. The most logical candidate is JL on a 787. Guess who the jv partner of JL is? That’s right, AA. How will DL respond to that?

Between LHR/NRT, good connectivity to hubs and a new expanded Admirals Club, AA could lock up a lot of corporate contracts and become the legacy of choice in BNA. The question is will they care enough to do so.


While I'd like to see the end of 50-seaters to ORD, AA has mostly made the right network choices to be(come) the legacy of choice at BNA, and as you rightly point out it's network is much more optimized for it than DL's. The issue with AA is more a general apathy about product and service to outstations right now.
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Jshank83
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:52 pm

tphuang wrote:

It doesn't seem clear to me how many additional ff DL would get by adding a few more P2P routes. They might get more from adding BNA-AMS, but they are battling AA/BA JV for the crowd that really needs TATL flying. There is no desire in DL to build BNA into a full blown hub. And if adding a few domestic P2P routes are not bringing DL added value, then there doesn't seem to be a lot of reasons for them to do it. DL is most profitable at BNA with its current level of flying.


Indy (and I) don't think DL is going to make BNA a full blown hub, that was never said. I think Indy and I are on the same page that DL could get added value from select P2P routes out of BNA, ESPECIALLY if they were to add TATL. I actually think AA should have added more once BA started their route but AA doesn't seem to want to do that anywhere. I think supplementing a TATL flight with other business markets makes sense to get businesses on board.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:20 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

It doesn't seem clear to me how many additional ff DL would get by adding a few more P2P routes. They might get more from adding BNA-AMS, but they are battling AA/BA JV for the crowd that really needs TATL flying. There is no desire in DL to build BNA into a full blown hub. And if adding a few domestic P2P routes are not bringing DL added value, then there doesn't seem to be a lot of reasons for them to do it. DL is most profitable at BNA with its current level of flying.


Indy (and I) don't think DL is going to make BNA a full blown hub, that was never said. I think Indy and I are on the same page that DL could get added value from select P2P routes out of BNA, ESPECIALLY if they were to add TATL. I actually think AA should have added more once BA started their route but AA doesn't seem to want to do that anywhere. I think supplementing a TATL flight with other business markets makes sense to get businesses on board.


Good summary,

I must add that I admire everyone on this thread being so respectful, it's rare that an a.net discussion like this doesn't devolve into name calling and insults

Cubsrule wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
I also might add that I wouldn’t take it as a forgone conclusion that DL will be the legacy of choice here long term. While they may have surpassed AA for now, one regime change at AA and they could easily fight back and regain it. Here’s why.

1. For one stop options, AA’s hubs at CLT, ORD and DFW offer far more connectivity than DL in ATL, DTW and MSP. Yes, DL flies more mainline, but all AA would have to do is some upgauging and add PHX and they are golden.

2. Even when DL adds TATL to AMS or CDG, the AA/BA jv will have the advantage because LHR has far more O&D and will be flown on newer 787’s that will have the J cabin refurbished soon. DL would likely fly old 767’s and who knows when those will be replaced.

3. DL is expanding the Sky Club soon, which will give them an advantage in the short term, but AA will have an opportunity to respond by building a whole new Admirals Club when A is rebuilt (which will happen shortly following the conclusion of the current work). Who knows what they could do there.

4. Finally, BNA wants a TYO flight, and I believe it will happen someday. The most logical candidate is JL on a 787. Guess who the jv partner of JL is? That’s right, AA. How will DL respond to that?

Between LHR/NRT, good connectivity to hubs and a new expanded Admirals Club, AA could lock up a lot of corporate contracts and become the legacy of choice in BNA. The question is will they care enough to do so.


While I'd like to see the end of 50-seaters to ORD, AA has mostly made the right network choices to be(come) the legacy of choice at BNA, and as you rightly point out it's network is much more optimized for it than DL's. The issue with AA is more a general apathy about product and service to outstations right now.


AA could/should be the #1 legacy of choice in many outstations, the management incompetence is quite sad to see especially as an AAdvantage member.

The "Five Star Service" at least shows they are putting some attention into BNA.

https://viewfromthewing.com/as-delta-ma ... ure-there/
Here is a good quote from Vasu Raja (AA network planning), about AA v. DL in AUS which has some parrallels to BNA

"Just as we are large in our hubs, in many spokes Austin is one, Nashville, Boston, San Antonio you name it there are lots of cities around there we actually have a big gate holding and through parts of the day though we have a gate, we have people there to work the gate, we don’t necessarily fly on the gate. And over time we realize we do have some profit opportunities, it probably won’t be necessarily flying daily trips from Austin to somewhere but we do envision a world where we do Saturday flights from Austin to Cancun and things like that.

…When we take these gates that we have and pay rent on and airplanes that we already own, and we get to Saturday people don’t necessarily want to fly from Austin to Chicago as much but they really want to fly from Austin to Cancun in the morning and we have the ability to offer that and in the next several months and years you’ll see more of that, not just in Austin but in other cities across the system."
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 10:29 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
I also might add that I wouldn’t take it as a forgone conclusion that DL will be the legacy of choice here long term. While they may have surpassed AA for now, one regime change at AA and they could easily fight back and regain it. Here’s why.

1. For one stop options, AA’s hubs at CLT, ORD and DFW offer far more connectivity than DL in ATL, DTW and MSP. Yes, DL flies more mainline, but all AA would have to do is some upgauging and add PHX and they are golden.

2. Even when DL adds TATL to AMS or CDG, the AA/BA jv will have the advantage because LHR has far more O&D and will be flown on newer 787’s that will have the J cabin refurbished soon. DL would likely fly old 767’s and who knows when those will be replaced.

3. DL is expanding the Sky Club soon, which will give them an advantage in the short term, but AA will have an opportunity to respond by building a whole new Admirals Club when A is rebuilt (which will happen shortly following the conclusion of the current work). Who knows what they could do there.

4. Finally, BNA wants a TYO flight, and I believe it will happen someday. The most logical candidate is JL on a 787. Guess who the jv partner of JL is? That’s right, AA. How will DL respond to that?

Between LHR/NRT, good connectivity to hubs and a new expanded Admirals Club, AA could lock up a lot of corporate contracts and become the legacy of choice in BNA. The question is will they care enough to do so.


While I'd like to see the end of 50-seaters to ORD, AA has mostly made the right network choices to be(come) the legacy of choice at BNA, and as you rightly point out it's network is much more optimized for it than DL's. The issue with AA is more a general apathy about product and service to outstations right now.


AA could/should be the #1 legacy of choice in many outstations, the management incompetence is quite sad to see especially as an AAdvantage member.

The "Five Star Service" at least shows they are putting some attention into BNA.

https://viewfromthewing.com/as-delta-ma ... ure-there/
Here is a good quote from Vasu Raja (AA network planning), about AA v. DL in AUS which has some parrallels to BNA

"Just as we are large in our hubs, in many spokes Austin is one, Nashville, Boston, San Antonio you name it there are lots of cities around there we actually have a big gate holding and through parts of the day though we have a gate, we have people there to work the gate, we don’t necessarily fly on the gate. And over time we realize we do have some profit opportunities, it probably won’t be necessarily flying daily trips from Austin to somewhere but we do envision a world where we do Saturday flights from Austin to Cancun and things like that.

…When we take these gates that we have and pay rent on and airplanes that we already own, and we get to Saturday people don’t necessarily want to fly from Austin to Chicago as much but they really want to fly from Austin to Cancun in the morning and we have the ability to offer that and in the next several months and years you’ll see more of that, not just in Austin but in other cities across the system."


I read that and I have to agree with the commenter that stated Vasu’s comments could not be more divorced from reality. AA has lost market share in those said outstations due to years of neglect and degrading of AA’s product.

I mean, come on AA, if you really care about being the legacy of choice in BNA, why in the heck are you flying no consistent mainline and a few 50 seaters on BNA-ORD, not to mention an evening CR7 to your flagship hub at DFW?! And you have thus far refused to add BNA-PHX, even seasonally, despite virtually all of BNA’s peers having it.

And don’t even get me started on how bad their hard and soft product has gotten...

They can rebound, but it’s going to take firing Doug Parker and Co ASAP and getting forward thinking leadership. The LATAM fiasco should’ve been the final straw for Doug, you simply don’t let that happen.
 
tphuang
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:10 am

Jshank83 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

It doesn't seem clear to me how many additional ff DL would get by adding a few more P2P routes. They might get more from adding BNA-AMS, but they are battling AA/BA JV for the crowd that really needs TATL flying. There is no desire in DL to build BNA into a full blown hub. And if adding a few domestic P2P routes are not bringing DL added value, then there doesn't seem to be a lot of reasons for them to do it. DL is most profitable at BNA with its current level of flying.


Indy (and I) don't think DL is going to make BNA a full blown hub, that was never said. I think Indy and I are on the same page that DL could get added value from select P2P routes out of BNA, ESPECIALLY if they were to add TATL. I actually think AA should have added more once BA started their route but AA doesn't seem to want to do that anywhere. I think supplementing a TATL flight with other business markets makes sense to get businesses on board.

I agree on the premise of tatl flight, but not flights to mco or aus. I think adding more leisure type of routes or to places dominated by wn would end up making existing ff happier rather than bringing in new ones. And that doesn't justify the expected losses they would incur.

As for other business markets that they don't already fly to, they are mostly major legacy hubs of other airlines. Those are quite unlikely.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:15 am

WOAH!

Check this out..........

In the latest master plan presentation, in addition to rebuilding A and expanding D, they are now proposing a 8 gate satellite off of C. This would leave the current terminal area with 68 gates when all said and done.

https://www.flynashville.com/about/Documents/2019-10-09_TAC_Meeting.pdf (go to page 10)

And they also have provisions for a second terminal in the future.

I guess this solves the issue of relocating airlines during the reconstruction of A. I have to wonder how many of these gates WN will take. Will they take all of the satellite in addition to all of C and D, or just a few? Regardless, I think this plan lends credence to the claim WN wants BNA as a megastation.

There is another open house/informational meeting on this plan on November 21st. I know I have a ton of questions now.

Big things ahead for BNA!
 
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southwest1675
Posts: 1507
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2016 2:03 am

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:18 am

BNAMealer wrote:
WOAH!

Check this out..........

In the latest master plan presentation, in addition to rebuilding A and expanding D, they are now proposing a 8 gate satellite off of C. This would leave the current terminal area with 68 gates when all said and done.

https://www.flynashville.com/about/Documents/2019-10-09_TAC_Meeting.pdf (go to page 10)

And they also have provisions for a second terminal in the future.

I guess this solves the issue of relocating airlines during the reconstruction of A. I have to wonder how many of these gates WN will take. Will they take all of the satellite in addition to all of C and D, or just a few? Regardless, I think this plan lends credence to the claim WN wants BNA as a megastation.

There is another open house/informational meeting on this plan on November 21st. I know I have a ton of questions now.

Big things ahead for BNA!


Makes you wonder if those talks Krulen had with WN had them going back to the drawing board...
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:23 am

southwest1675 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
WOAH!

Check this out..........

In the latest master plan presentation, in addition to rebuilding A and expanding D, they are now proposing a 8 gate satellite off of C. This would leave the current terminal area with 68 gates when all said and done.

https://www.flynashville.com/about/Documents/2019-10-09_TAC_Meeting.pdf (go to page 10)

And they also have provisions for a second terminal in the future.

I guess this solves the issue of relocating airlines during the reconstruction of A. I have to wonder how many of these gates WN will take. Will they take all of the satellite in addition to all of C and D, or just a few? Regardless, I think this plan lends credence to the claim WN wants BNA as a megastation.

There is another open house/informational meeting on this plan on November 21st. I know I have a ton of questions now.

Big things ahead for BNA!


Makes you wonder if those talks Krulen had with WN had them going back to the drawing board...


Indeed.

BNA's future layout in these plans kind of reminds me of a hybrid of BWI and LAS, I think that is where things are going.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:34 am

BNAMealer wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
WOAH!

Check this out..........

In the latest master plan presentation, in addition to rebuilding A and expanding D, they are now proposing a 8 gate satellite off of C. This would leave the current terminal area with 68 gates when all said and done.

https://www.flynashville.com/about/Documents/2019-10-09_TAC_Meeting.pdf (go to page 10)

And they also have provisions for a second terminal in the future.

I guess this solves the issue of relocating airlines during the reconstruction of A. I have to wonder how many of these gates WN will take. Will they take all of the satellite in addition to all of C and D, or just a few? Regardless, I think this plan lends credence to the claim WN wants BNA as a megastation.

There is another open house/informational meeting on this plan on November 21st. I know I have a ton of questions now.

Big things ahead for BNA!


Makes you wonder if those talks Krulen had with WN had them going back to the drawing board...


Indeed.

BNA's future layout in these plans kind of reminds me of a hybrid of BWI and LAS, I think that is where things are going.


Believe it or not, BNA has cheaper operating fees than other of its larger stations. It also gives BNA an advantage over growth in a peer market like STL.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
BNAMealer
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Is BNA WN's next megastation?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:50 am

This has been discussed in various threads before, but I think these recent developments warrant a thread on this.

BNA has been experiencing rapid growth over the last few years, and they are currently working through a multiphase project called BNA Vision to address the growth. However, the have pretty much already outgrown the project and it is not even halfway done yet. As such, BNA is currently updating their master plan and is planning a far more ambitious expansion for the next decade.

WN has been a large driver of the growth at BNA in recent years, and recently speculation has been rising that WN plans to make BNA a base and expand to 200+ flights eventually. Of course, this is still speculation at this point.

However...... BNA's CEO Doug Kreulen made a visit to WN's HQ back in August to discuss BNA Vision. Then, BNA today released a presentation given to technical/community advisory committees back on October 9th regarding the master plan and the next round of expansion.

https://www.flynashville.com/about/Documents/2019-10-09_TAC_Meeting.pdf

https://twitter.com/DougKreulen/status/1162386359010713602 (Doug's visit to WN's HQ back in August)

For some context, notice the previous technical/community advisory presentations

https://www.flynashville.com/about/Pages/masterplan2.aspx#involvement

These plans have gradually expanded in scope of the course of the master plan process. In addition to rebuilding/expanding Concourse A and expanding the still-under-construction Concourse D with 3 gates, they are now proposing an 8 gate satellite to be built off of Concourse C. This will bring BNA up to 68 gates with the current terminal, and there are plans for further down the road for a second terminal.

Where does WN come in all of this? It has been rumored that WN wants all of C and D at BNA for their operations, but if they took all of that and this newly proposed 8 gate satellite, that would give them 36 gates, putting them on par with BWI, MDW, DEN, etc. Even if they didn't take all of C, D and the Satellite, they would likely take most of it, which would likely roughly double their gate count from 14 to 30.

Is WN making BNA their Southeast megastation (hub)? I find it interesting these plans have expanded in scope all of a sudden after the BNA CEO visited WN's HQ.
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:51 am

southwest1675 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:

Makes you wonder if those talks Krulen had with WN had them going back to the drawing board...


Indeed.

BNA's future layout in these plans kind of reminds me of a hybrid of BWI and LAS, I think that is where things are going.


Believe it or not, BNA has cheaper operating fees than other of its larger stations. It also gives BNA an advantage over growth in a peer market like STL.


Who know's if that will still be the case when the future expansions happen.

I've started a separate thread on WN potentially making BNA a megastation as I believe it is worth a separate topic based on this new info. Let the fun begin!
 
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Re: Is BNA WN's next megastation?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:08 am

Is BNA WN's next megastation?

No.
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Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Is BNA WN's next megastation?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:13 am

Sure, WN runs some connections, but the focus has been on point-to-point traffic. (If the poster doing hub analysis gets around to O&D vs. connection numbers for the WN focus cities, that'll be great). BNA can't even begin to touch the O&D traffic levels of DEN, BWI or MDW. 200+ flights is a long way from today's 134 when it's all mainline.
 
ThaneC
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Re: Is BNA WN's next megastation?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:27 am

I would not be surprised to see Southwest expand even more at BNA. Nashville and all of the airport’s catchment area are totally booming with growth and economic development of all types. Nashville is on fire with a huge tourist, convention and entertainment, as well as a strong corporate destination. BNA is really busy.
 
kbmiflyer
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Re: Is BNA WN's next megastation?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:36 am

Everyone thought when WN bought AirTran that Atlanta would become their southeast hub, but I have always thought WN would build up BNA first. As mentioned above the town is booming, the airport is not congested (unlike ATL) and it makes a nice alternative to MDW for East - West connections along with Midwest - Florida connections.
 
Jshank83
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Re: Is BNA WN's next megastation?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:45 am

I can’t see WN taking the satellite terminal. Why break up your gates? Put one or two of the ULCCs out there.

I also think we are getting ahead of ourselves on the megastation here. WN obviously wants to grow BNA, but to what level? BNA wont grow this fast forever and we are due for a downturn at some point.
 
ZazuPIT
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Re: Is BNA WN's next megastation?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:56 am

Do we really need this thread? It seems well covered in the Nashville conversation. They have no new gates (D concourse coming online for months), the IAB construction is going to actually make gates even more scarce until the build-out is complete. Once the MAX comes back online I suspect WN will put in place some plans they had in place prior to its grounding. Hub? Yes. Megastation? No....WN has no hub with +300 departures. A megastation is DL in ATL; AA at DFW.
 
dafunk10
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:56 am

BNAMealer wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
WOAH!

Check this out..........

In the latest master plan presentation, in addition to rebuilding A and expanding D, they are now proposing a 8 gate satellite off of C. This would leave the current terminal area with 68 gates when all said and done.

https://www.flynashville.com/about/Documents/2019-10-09_TAC_Meeting.pdf (go to page 10)

And they also have provisions for a second terminal in the future.

I guess this solves the issue of relocating airlines during the reconstruction of A. I have to wonder how many of these gates WN will take. Will they take all of the satellite in addition to all of C and D, or just a few? Regardless, I think this plan lends credence to the claim WN wants BNA as a megastation.

There is another open house/informational meeting on this plan on November 21st. I know I have a ton of questions now.

Big things ahead for BNA!


Makes you wonder if those talks Krulen had with WN had them going back to the drawing board...


Indeed.

BNA's future layout in these plans kind of reminds me of a hybrid of BWI and LAS, I think that is where things are going.



Reminds me of SEA
 
UALFAson
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Re: Is BNA WN's next megastation?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:02 am

ZazuPIT wrote:
Do we really need this thread? It seems well covered in the Nashville conversation. They have no new gates (D concourse coming online for months), the IAB construction is going to actually make gates even more scarce until the build-out is complete. Once the MAX comes back online I suspect WN will put in place some plans they had in place prior to its grounding. Hub? Yes. Megastation? No....WN has no hub with +300 departures. A megastation is DL in ATL; AA at DFW.


I completely agree. This thread is totally unnecessary. Why can't we keep all the WN fan boy-ing and BNA size queen fantasies in the Nashville thread. It's already exhausting enough to wade through there.
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Re: Is BNA WN's next megastation?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:03 am

Jshank83 wrote:
I can’t see WN taking the satellite terminal. Why break up your gates? Put one or two of the ULCCs out there.

I also think we are getting ahead of ourselves on the megastation here. WN obviously wants to grow BNA, but to what level? BNA wont grow this fast forever and we are due for a downturn at some point.


That’s just it, we don’t know. Notice I did say this is still speculation at this point.

I just find it really odd that BNA is now proposing an 8 gate satellite concourse on top of what they already had planned. This was not in the plans from as recently as June, this came about sometime after Doug met WN officials at the HQ in August.

Why wouldn’t WN ultimately take the satellite, or at least part of it? It’s right off of gates they’ll be using.
 
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Re: Is BNA WN's next megastation?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:33 am

BNAMealer wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
I can’t see WN taking the satellite terminal. Why break up your gates? Put one or two of the ULCCs out there.

I also think we are getting ahead of ourselves on the megastation here. WN obviously wants to grow BNA, but to what level? BNA wont grow this fast forever and we are due for a downturn at some point.


That’s just it, we don’t know. Notice I did say this is still speculation at this point.

I just find it really odd that BNA is now proposing an 8 gate satellite concourse on top of what they already had planned. This was not in the plans from as recently as June, this came about sometime after Doug met WN officials at the HQ in August.

Why wouldn’t WN ultimately take the satellite, or at least part of it? It’s right off of gates they’ll be using.


Because they are using busses to get people out there. It’s bad enough to uses busses but now you want people to have connections between the main concourse and that one by bussing them? That would be a horrible idea. Whoever would be in the satellite concourse should have all their flights there. I’m not even sure the satellite concourse or permanent by how they talk about it in the slides. It might just be overflow during construction.

Lots of airports send people to meet with WN all the time so I am not sure someone from BNA going there is foreshadowing that something big is in the works. If you aren’t sending someone you are doing things wrong.
 
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Re: Is BNA WN's next megastation?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:45 am

Jshank83 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
I can’t see WN taking the satellite terminal. Why break up your gates? Put one or two of the ULCCs out there.

I also think we are getting ahead of ourselves on the megastation here. WN obviously wants to grow BNA, but to what level? BNA wont grow this fast forever and we are due for a downturn at some point.


That’s just it, we don’t know. Notice I did say this is still speculation at this point.

I just find it really odd that BNA is now proposing an 8 gate satellite concourse on top of what they already had planned. This was not in the plans from as recently as June, this came about sometime after Doug met WN officials at the HQ in August.

Why wouldn’t WN ultimately take the satellite, or at least part of it? It’s right off of gates they’ll be using.


Because they are using busses to get people out there. It’s bad enough to uses busses but now you want people to have connections between the main concourse and that one by bussing them? That would be a horrible idea. Whoever would be in the satellite concourse should have all their flights there. I’m not even sure the satellite concourse or permanent by how they talk about it in the slides. It might just be overflow during construction.

Lots of airports send people to meet with WN all the time so I am not sure someone from BNA going there is foreshadowing that something big is in the works. If you aren’t sending someone you are doing things wrong.


CVG did it for many years between their B and C concourses, so it’s not unprecedented.

Even if WN didn’t take any of the satellite, they’d still get 28 gates between C and D plus access to the CUTE IAB gates. That’s still a fairly significant operation.

Yes, airports send people all the time, but Doug has now been to both WN and DL, two airlines that have expressed great interest in expanding in BNA. There has to be something going on here.
 
737MAX7
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Re: Is BNA WN's next megastation?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:19 am

By WN’s classification BNA is already considered a Mega. I don’t think we’ll ever hit 200+ here but 150 isn’t out of the question. On a side note you’ve certainly brought out the whiners in this thread, kudos.
 
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Re: Is BNA WN's next megastation?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:26 am

For some of those close to WN at BNA, too bad the station manager there sucks.
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Re: Is BNA WN's next megastation?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:26 am

BNAMealer wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:

That’s just it, we don’t know. Notice I did say this is still speculation at this point.

I just find it really odd that BNA is now proposing an 8 gate satellite concourse on top of what they already had planned. This was not in the plans from as recently as June, this came about sometime after Doug met WN officials at the HQ in August.

Why wouldn’t WN ultimately take the satellite, or at least part of it? It’s right off of gates they’ll be using.


Because they are using busses to get people out there. It’s bad enough to uses busses but now you want people to have connections between the main concourse and that one by bussing them? That would be a horrible idea. Whoever would be in the satellite concourse should have all their flights there. I’m not even sure the satellite concourse or permanent by how they talk about it in the slides. It might just be overflow during construction.

Lots of airports send people to meet with WN all the time so I am not sure someone from BNA going there is foreshadowing that something big is in the works. If you aren’t sending someone you are doing things wrong.


CVG did it for many years between their B and C concourses, so it’s not unprecedented.

Even if WN didn’t take any of the satellite, they’d still get 28 gates between C and D plus access to the CUTE IAB gates. That’s still a fairly significant operation.

Yes, airports send people all the time, but Doug has now been to both WN and DL, two airlines that have expressed great interest in expanding in BNA. There has to be something going on here.


Could they? Yes but there is no reason to. WN won’t want it so push someone else out there and give them more gates in the main terminal if they want more gates.
 
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Re: Is BNA WN's next megastation?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:26 am

737MAX7 wrote:
By WN’s classification BNA is already considered a Mega. I don’t think we’ll ever hit 200+ here but 150 isn’t out of the question. On a side note you’ve certainly brought out the whiners in this thread, kudos.


BNA is already almost at 150 with the current setup. I think 200+ is a good bet if WN ends up taking all of C and D.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Is BNA WN's next megastation?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:30 am

Jshank83 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:

Because they are using busses to get people out there. It’s bad enough to uses busses but now you want people to have connections between the main concourse and that one by bussing them? That would be a horrible idea. Whoever would be in the satellite concourse should have all their flights there. I’m not even sure the satellite concourse or permanent by how they talk about it in the slides. It might just be overflow during construction.

Lots of airports send people to meet with WN all the time so I am not sure someone from BNA going there is foreshadowing that something big is in the works. If you aren’t sending someone you are doing things wrong.


CVG did it for many years between their B and C concourses, so it’s not unprecedented.

Even if WN didn’t take any of the satellite, they’d still get 28 gates between C and D plus access to the CUTE IAB gates. That’s still a fairly significant operation.

Yes, airports send people all the time, but Doug has now been to both WN and DL, two airlines that have expressed great interest in expanding in BNA. There has to be something going on here.


Could they? Yes but there is no reason to. WN won’t want it so push someone else out there and give them more gates in the main terminal if they want more gates.


You make a good point here. One scenario I see is the ULCC’s (G4, F9, NK, SY) moving to the satellite, WN taking C/D, DL/WS taking B and AA/UA/B6/AS/AC in A, with the international T gates being CUTE.
 
737MAX7
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Re: Is BNA WN's next megastation?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:33 am

southwest1675 wrote:
For some of those close to WN at BNA, too bad the station manager there sucks.

Probably won’t be getting many christmas cards.
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:47 am

BNAMealer wrote:
WOAH!

Check this out..........

In the latest master plan presentation, in addition to rebuilding A and expanding D, they are now proposing a 8 gate satellite off of C. This would leave the current terminal area with 68 gates when all said and done.

https://www.flynashville.com/about/Documents/2019-10-09_TAC_Meeting.pdf (go to page 10)

And they also have provisions for a second terminal in the future.

I guess this solves the issue of relocating airlines during the reconstruction of A. I have to wonder how many of these gates WN will take. Will they take all of the satellite in addition to all of C and D, or just a few? Regardless, I think this plan lends credence to the claim WN wants BNA as a megastation.

There is another open house/informational meeting on this plan on November 21st. I know I have a ton of questions now.

Big things ahead for BNA!


Interesting that B11 is being planned for a A330-900. Wishful thinking for a DL international flight? or something on the way soon?
 
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Re: Is BNA WN's next megastation?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:40 am

Fwiw MSY's director has visited WN hq as well in the past few months. Surely we'll be the next mega hub instead of BNA :stirthepot:
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:03 pm

tys777 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
WOAH!

Check this out..........

In the latest master plan presentation, in addition to rebuilding A and expanding D, they are now proposing a 8 gate satellite off of C. This would leave the current terminal area with 68 gates when all said and done.

https://www.flynashville.com/about/Documents/2019-10-09_TAC_Meeting.pdf (go to page 10)

And they also have provisions for a second terminal in the future.

I guess this solves the issue of relocating airlines during the reconstruction of A. I have to wonder how many of these gates WN will take. Will they take all of the satellite in addition to all of C and D, or just a few? Regardless, I think this plan lends credence to the claim WN wants BNA as a megastation.

There is another open house/informational meeting on this plan on November 21st. I know I have a ton of questions now.

Big things ahead for BNA!


Interesting that B11 is being planned for a A330-900. Wishful thinking for a DL international flight? or something on the way soon?


Perhaps, but I’d think any DL widebody flight would enplane/deplane at one of the IAB gates which will be adjacent to B.

It does make me wonder though if DL wants all of B eventually. Perhaps the reason they’ve added this satellite concourse is because DL/WN have requested exclusive uses of B and C/D respectively, so they need additional gates for the ULCC’s.
 
dfdubflyer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:45 pm

Wow.

This thread has been accused by many (perhaps rightly so) of fanboyism at times, but I'm blown away by them looking at expanding a concourse which hasn't even opened yet. I feel like the A rebuild had been bandied about but seems to have taken a real step forward from the conceptual future vision they had this summer when they studied options. The remote terminal makes sense for Sun Country/Spirit/Frontier/Contouretc to free up space for the legacies and Wn in the main terminal.

Could you all make out the central terminal revisions they had on there? Was it primarily an expansion of the ticketing lobby?

Is the fourth parallel runway really necessary? I know we have variable weather but wow that seems like a huge investment to make.
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:13 pm

dfdubflyer wrote:
Wow.

This thread has been accused by many (perhaps rightly so) of fanboyism at times, but I'm blown away by them looking at expanding a concourse which hasn't even opened yet. I feel like the A rebuild had been bandied about but seems to have taken a real step forward from the conceptual future vision they had this summer when they studied options. The remote terminal makes sense for Sun Country/Spirit/Frontier/Contouretc to free up space for the legacies and Wn in the main terminal.

Could you all make out the central terminal revisions they had on there? Was it primarily an expansion of the ticketing lobby?

Is the fourth parallel runway really necessary? I know we have variable weather but wow that seems like a huge investment to make.


Honestly, I don’t see how this so-called “fan-boying” is any different than any other cities thread. Yes, we can get a bit enthusiastic at times, but its often based on things actually happening. I’m getting pretty tired of some users bashing cities like BNA, AUS, RDU, etc, yet exalting places that are much slower growing like CVG, PIT, CMH, STL. It’s almost like there is a sense of jealousy on here.

Anyway. Regardless of what people think, this updated terminal expansion is pretty significant. It’s clear something is going on here.

To your last point, that fourth parallel runway wouldn’t be built until a second terminal is needed, which is beyond the planning period for this master plan.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:29 pm

In defense, I think a big pretty addition to the master plan after the MNAA CEO visits WN was worth a discussion.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:03 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
In defense, I think a big pretty addition to the master plan after the MNAA CEO visits WN was worth a discussion.


Indeed, but the mods decided it best be left here. Honestly, I can’t blame them, the thread probably would’ve attracted trolls and derailed the conversation from the reasonable people.

I’m excited though, I know I’ll have lots of questions for BNA officials at the meeting on the 21st.
 
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:09 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
In defense, I think a big pretty addition to the master plan after the MNAA CEO visits WN was worth a discussion.


Indeed, but the mods decided it best be left here. Honestly, I can’t blame them, the thread probably would’ve attracted trolls and derailed the conversation from the reasonable people.

I’m excited though, I know I’ll have lots of questions for BNA officials at the meeting on the 21st.


Let us know what they say. Wonder if Doug will be there.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
BNAMealer
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:11 pm

southwest1675 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
southwest1675 wrote:
In defense, I think a big pretty addition to the master plan after the MNAA CEO visits WN was worth a discussion.


Indeed, but the mods decided it best be left here. Honestly, I can’t blame them, the thread probably would’ve attracted trolls and derailed the conversation from the reasonable people.

I’m excited though, I know I’ll have lots of questions for BNA officials at the meeting on the 21st.


Let us know what they say. Wonder if Doug will be there.


It’s an open house, so I think anyone here who’s interested should go.
 
DEN1895
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Re: Is BNA WN's next megastation?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:27 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
This has been discussed in various threads before, but I think these recent developments warrant a thread on this.

BNA has been experiencing rapid growth over the last few years, and they are currently working through a multiphase project called BNA Vision to address the growth. However, the have pretty much already outgrown the project and it is not even halfway done yet. As such, BNA is currently updating their master plan and is planning a far more ambitious expansion for the next decade.

WN has been a large driver of the growth at BNA in recent years, and recently speculation has been rising that WN plans to make BNA a base and expand to 200+ flights eventually. Of course, this is still speculation at this point.

However...... BNA's CEO Doug Kreulen made a visit to WN's HQ back in August to discuss BNA Vision. Then, BNA today released a presentation given to technical/community advisory committees back on October 9th regarding the master plan and the next round of expansion.

https://www.flynashville.com/about/Documents/2019-10-09_TAC_Meeting.pdf

https://twitter.com/DougKreulen/status/1162386359010713602 (Doug's visit to WN's HQ back in August)

For some context, notice the previous technical/community advisory presentations

https://www.flynashville.com/about/Pages/masterplan2.aspx#involvement

These plans have gradually expanded in scope of the course of the master plan process. In addition to rebuilding/expanding Concourse A and expanding the still-under-construction Concourse D with 3 gates, they are now proposing an 8 gate satellite to be built off of Concourse C. This will bring BNA up to 68 gates with the current terminal, and there are plans for further down the road for a second terminal.

Where does WN come in all of this? It has been rumored that WN wants all of C and D at BNA for their operations, but if they took all of that and this newly proposed 8 gate satellite, that would give them 36 gates, putting them on par with BWI, MDW, DEN, etc. Even if they didn't take all of C, D and the Satellite, they would likely take most of it, which would likely roughly double their gate count from 14 to 30.

Is WN making BNA their Southeast megastation (hub)? I find it interesting these plans have expanded in scope all of a sudden after the BNA CEO visited WN's HQ.


One thing to keep in mind is that WN operates 8-10 flights per gate, I am not sure if they would ever need that many gates unless they plan on operating more than 300 flights out of BNA. Currently at DEN they only have 24 gates and plan to operate 235 flights this summer. I think that BNA will grow but not to the point where WN will need 36 gates.

Also airports put any idea they have for additional gates on their master plan so that the FAA will consider the plans in the future, DEN has plans for 200 more gates on their master plan, but those are not happening anytime soon, they are just ideas and place holders.
 
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Re: Is BNA WN's next megastation?

Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:59 pm

DEN1895 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
This has been discussed in various threads before, but I think these recent developments warrant a thread on this.

BNA has been experiencing rapid growth over the last few years, and they are currently working through a multiphase project called BNA Vision to address the growth. However, the have pretty much already outgrown the project and it is not even halfway done yet. As such, BNA is currently updating their master plan and is planning a far more ambitious expansion for the next decade.

WN has been a large driver of the growth at BNA in recent years, and recently speculation has been rising that WN plans to make BNA a base and expand to 200+ flights eventually. Of course, this is still speculation at this point.

However...... BNA's CEO Doug Kreulen made a visit to WN's HQ back in August to discuss BNA Vision. Then, BNA today released a presentation given to technical/community advisory committees back on October 9th regarding the master plan and the next round of expansion.

https://www.flynashville.com/about/Documents/2019-10-09_TAC_Meeting.pdf

https://twitter.com/DougKreulen/status/1162386359010713602 (Doug's visit to WN's HQ back in August)

For some context, notice the previous technical/community advisory presentations

https://www.flynashville.com/about/Pages/masterplan2.aspx#involvement

These plans have gradually expanded in scope of the course of the master plan process. In addition to rebuilding/expanding Concourse A and expanding the still-under-construction Concourse D with 3 gates, they are now proposing an 8 gate satellite to be built off of Concourse C. This will bring BNA up to 68 gates with the current terminal, and there are plans for further down the road for a second terminal.

Where does WN come in all of this? It has been rumored that WN wants all of C and D at BNA for their operations, but if they took all of that and this newly proposed 8 gate satellite, that would give them 36 gates, putting them on par with BWI, MDW, DEN, etc. Even if they didn't take all of C, D and the Satellite, they would likely take most of it, which would likely roughly double their gate count from 14 to 30.

Is WN making BNA their Southeast megastation (hub)? I find it interesting these plans have expanded in scope all of a sudden after the BNA CEO visited WN's HQ.


One thing to keep in mind is that WN operates 8-10 flights per gate, I am not sure if they would ever need that many gates unless they plan on operating more than 300 flights out of BNA. Currently at DEN they only have 24 gates and plan to operate 235 flights this summer. I think that BNA will grow but not to the point where WN will need 36 gates.

Also airports put any idea they have for additional gates on their master plan so that the FAA will consider the plans in the future, DEN has plans for 200 more gates on their master plan, but those are not happening anytime soon, they are just ideas and place holders.


Assuming WN takes all of C/D, that would give them 28 gates which at 8-9 turns a day could give them 220-250 flights.

I agree 36 seems a bit on the excessive side right now, but given BNA’s prime geographical location and strong economy, a large WN station here makes sense. I think Jshank83 said it best that the new satellite would make more sense for the ULCC’s and give WN gates in the main terminal. That said, if WN needed more gates beyond that, they could have the right of first refusal on the satellite should a second terminal ever be built.

Given BNA’s growth and WN (and possibly DL’s) desire for more space, I believe all of this will be built, but it will take a decade or longer to do so as the current work isn’t even halfway done.
 
bnatraveler
Posts: 389
Joined: Tue Dec 02, 2003 10:10 am

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:27 pm

The South Sattelite, as described in the earlier post, looks more like a temporary concourse. The notes in the slides say that it (i) will only be accessible via a bus from the terminal, (ii) would have limited concessions, and (iii) would support the airport through the re-build of terminal A and other programs.
 
BNAMealer
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Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 09, 2019 12:10 am

bnatraveler wrote:
The South Sattelite, as described in the earlier post, looks more like a temporary concourse. The notes in the slides say that it (i) will only be accessible via a bus from the terminal, (ii) would have limited concessions, and (iii) would support the airport through the re-build of terminal A and other programs.


I’m pretty sure they would have indicated if it was temporary. They wouldn’t be putting in elevators and escalators into a temporary structure. And since it is likely the concourse will ultimately house NK, F9, G4, SY, etc, it’s not like they need a ton of concessions.

My guess is this will be the first thing built following the completion of the current BNA Vision work and it will house the A airlines during its reconstruction, then all of the ULCC’s will move there afterwards.
 
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southwest1675
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Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2016 2:03 am

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 09, 2019 12:35 am

BNAMealer wrote:
bnatraveler wrote:
The South Sattelite, as described in the earlier post, looks more like a temporary concourse. The notes in the slides say that it (i) will only be accessible via a bus from the terminal, (ii) would have limited concessions, and (iii) would support the airport through the re-build of terminal A and other programs.


I’m pretty sure they would have indicated if it was temporary. They wouldn’t be putting in elevators and escalators into a temporary structure. And since it is likely the concourse will ultimately house NK, F9, G4, SY, etc, it’s not like they need a ton of concessions.

My guess is this will be the first thing built following the completion of the current BNA Vision work and it will house the A airlines during its reconstruction, then all of the ULCC’s will move there afterwards.


Plot twist if that satellite concourse is for the ULCC as Delta wants all of B lol. Time will tell. Can’t wait to see BNA in 5 years.
Herb Kelleher 1931-2019
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 447
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 09, 2019 1:27 pm

https://theaircurrent.com/airlines/sout ... -aviation/

If you are able to read the article would appear WN is looking at smaller aircraft (A220) to increase the amount of P2P flying they do. No doubt they know of Moxy and its likely plans. The short-haul P2P flying in the US is where the domestic growth will be in the future. How would this impact BNA and WN's plans for BNA?
 
dafunk10
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Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:02 pm

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:56 pm

BNA released Sept figures....load factors down -12% from PM and PY (total pax still up over 12% year-over-year)

What routes started last month or was there upgauging on existing routes?? Someone(s) is taking it on the chin!


https://www.flynashville.com/about/Airp ... onStat.pdf
 
BNAMealer
Posts: 931
Joined: Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:03 pm

Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:13 am

dafunk10 wrote:
BNA released Sept figures....load factors down -12% from PM and PY (total pax still up over 12% year-over-year)

What routes started last month or was there upgauging on existing routes?? Someone(s) is taking it on the chin!


https://www.flynashville.com/about/Airp ... onStat.pdf


Just a lot of new capacity in the market that needs to be absorbed.

We are still on track to hit 18 million+ this year. Wouldn't surprise me at all (barring a severe economic recession) if BNA crosses the 20 million mark in 2020, which would officially graduate it out of the medium hub category and into the large one.
 
jplatts
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Re: Nashville Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:58 am

Midwestindy wrote:
That is why DL was hiring for Corporate Sales positions a year or so ago, if they are doing their job they are capturing corporate accounts in the area. WN struggles in terms of F500 corporate accounts because of their lack of int'l presence, and corporate accounts drive a large amount of air travel decisions. If DL does decide to add AMS, that would be major in terms of securing corporate accounts in the region.

If DL secures significant accounts in the region, personal preferences won't matter as travelers will be required to take DL nonstop per company policy.

They would not need to add a whole bunch of flights for greater POS strength, DL has an inherent strength over WN due to its international network. Not to rehash what I have already posted, but DL is much stronger than WN in terms of corporate sales. It's a major reason why WN has become weaker in IND after DL added IND-CDG, if DL were to add BNA-AMS DL would gain significant leverage. To be clear though, WN and DL can coexist, their fundamental goals serve two different markets with a bit of overlap in the middle.


Most of the WN FF's who need to travel internationally on business are willing to do so on AA, DL, UA, BA, AC, AM, or other legacy carriers, even if they do not have elite status on AA, DL, or UA. In addition, most of the WN FF's in the BNA market who are traveling to international destinations on DL or its codeshare partners from BNA are also willing to connect to international destinations through ATL, BOS, DTW, LAX, MSP, JFK, or SEA.

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