HeyHey wrote:Fargo wrote:
That is because RDU was within the range of a 752, and it was pretty successful actually. It is now on a 763 and is daily or near daily year round (I believe it may be 5x week or so in the very slow winter months). But we have to remember RDU has had TATL service since 1994 and is a bit bigger and further economically developed than BNA. As for AUS, I'd argue they are on a completely different level than BNA/RDU. The MSA proper may be around the same size, but they serve a much larger catchment area (closer to 3-5 million people depending on how you look at it), they have a bigger business community and advanced tech sector and it is the state capital of the 10th largest economy in the world. It's no wonder BA is flying daily 744's/77W's and LH (a conservative airline when it comes to non-hub routes in the US) just started service there, with DL to CDG and a TPAC flight likely around the corner.
None of this is to say BNA isn't significant in it's own right, we (I live in the Nashville area FYI) are growing rapidly as well. We'll get more European service eventually, it's just a matter of when. But we need to let the market develop and it would be in our best interest to see BA go daily year round before scoring a second year round TATL flight.
Here's a nifty little tool with 2015 census estimates for those who love messing around with populations and demographics: https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/mappi ... st/gpw-v4/
I would argue the catchment areas for BNA is actually larger in terms of population than AUS (although the given population in AUS likely has more impact per capita). AUS has significant airports on 3 of 4 sides (SAT, DFW, IAH) and a vast area of nothingness on the fourth side that really eats into its catchment area. Using the map above for reference, AUS's catchment area is somewhere in the neighborhood of 2.7 million people and BNA's is ~3.3 million. For AUS I excluded Waco and San Antonio, and for BNA I excluded Huntsville, Knoxville, and Chattanooga, although all of those areas undoubtedly feed into AUS and BNA to some degree. RDU, on the other hand, has a significantly larger catchment area at somewhere in the range of 4.5 million people by my measurements.
I do wonder about the effects of having BA as the carrier instead of AA or DL. My acquaintances from Nashville have rarely travelled with BA when traveling to Europe. Most are still flying one of the US legacy carriers for whatever reason. Is it lack of knowledge, or do people generally not know that they can transfer to far more places in Europe by connecting through LHR than through ATL, JFK, or ORD? I really think the demand is there from BNA to have daily service to Europe, there may be a lack of knowledge about the service.
"Hey Hey - thanks for the population link. Drawing a 161 KM (100 Miles) circle around various cities yields: CVG 8.5M CMH 7M RDU 6.1M IND 5.8M AUS 5.7M SDF 5.5M STL 4M BNA 3.9M MEM 2.7M
In terms of Annual Passengers: BNA 16M/Focus WN AUS 16M/Focus WN STL 16M/Focus WN RDU 13M/Focus DL IND 9.4M CVG 8M/Focus DL MEM 4.4M SDF 3.8M.