We should know about new routes out of HND and NRT soon for the 2020 slot increase by the japanese government. There's a chance we will see either NH or JL starting a YYZ route but when would such an announcement happen? If BR and CX can fit a 777-300 to YYZ, so can NH or JL.
I'd say it's a pretty good chance, ANA from HND would be a nice way to supplement AC. If they can work together on the route with codeshares or even a JV, it could be really nice. Even if AC were to move to a 789, they could run that in parallel with an ANA 789.
Places like HKG are 3x daily, there is no reason HND can't handle at least 2, especially with connection opportunities. Anna Aero did a piece on Asian hubs and their top unserved routes, YYZ was the 4th largest to SIN for example, with over 40 000 passengers last year from YYZ to SIN indirectly, which is over 50 pdew. That's just one destination alone. ANA would be an excellent partner to work that demand.
There’s a reason why 2 flights to Tokyo don’t work and I’m sure you recall AC transferring NRT from YYZ to YUL. Why would AC move an asset out of its main global hub?
Yes - between July and Sep perhaps a 2nd flight could work but what about all the other months. Do you know what AC and or CX profitability is to YYZ?
You’re doing this on account of full flights and not necessarily profitability.
It’s nice to see your enthusiasm but the Japanese carriers caters to a very premium market which CANADA is simply not. I can tell you personally that Japanese carriers don’t hold Canada as a top priority.
They moved the YYZ-NRT to YUL, spreads the wealth, plus captured different connections. HND has grown from a 787 to a 77L now to a year round 77W, I’d say it’s fair to say it’s doing well. Look at HKG, it wouldn’t run a peak of 3x daily, all 777s if it wasn’t doing well. Even the lowest season is still 17x weekly 77Ws. If they weren’t making money, they wouldn’t fly the route, let alone at the frequency they do. I think it’s fair to say there is an exceptionally good chance YYZ gets a Japanese carrier. There is plenty of premium demand, maybe not for an F cabin, but YYZ has extremely high J volumes, and intercontinental J is AC’s fastest growing segment, extrapolate that to most of their intercontinental flying being out of YYZ, it’s pretty fair to say it’s a market that can be tapped into and will provide returns on investment. AC is also just about out of resources to expand its international flying portfolio, more and more, I think you will see star partners increasing service to AC hubs to keep up with growth.
YYZ is after all, the second busiest international airport in the Americas and intercontinental traffic is growing rapidly, 2018 saw 7.6% growth, making it the fastest growing international airport in the Americas based on actual pax growth. Furthermore, YVR and YUL are both growing quickly and feature in the top 15 of the same list. The data doesn’t lie, traffic to Canada is doing more than sufficiently well.