MileHFL400
Topic Author
Posts: 532
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

B777-9 future prospects?

Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:43 pm

Happy new year a.nutters,

Sorry if this has been discussed..

At the end of last year we had a discussion on what the B787-10’s future prospects are..

Who is considering the B777-9?

1. AF were the first to get the B777-300ER, will they need to order the -9 to replace their initial batch?

2. KL to replace their last B747-400’s?

3. SAA to replace A340-600’s?

4. Air India?

5. PIA? (Also the -8 to replace 200LR’s?

6. IAG?

7. Swiss?

8. Saudia?

Pls feel free to add to the list!
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
whywhyzee
Posts: 822
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:12 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Thu Jan 03, 2019 8:56 pm

AC is likely to replace 77Ws and to grow slot constrained routes, but an order is likely still the better part of a decade away.
 
User avatar
Slash787
Posts: 797
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2016 9:37 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:17 pm

KLM could order but I don't see AF ordering it soon.

SAA is making losses so I don't see them making an order soon, they will most prob replace A346 with the A35K if they ever do it, but not soon.

Air India.......maybe if they are still active in 2030

PIA, I don't think so, they will most prob go with the B787 or A350.

IAG - I could see British Airways ordering some

Swiss - I don't expect any B777X orders in the next 15 years, they just got their B77W

Saudia really has high chances.

I could see Turkish Airlines ordering them in the next few years.

Air New Zealand was interested in the B777-8
 
smi0006
Posts: 2012
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 7:45 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:24 pm

Potentials are QF and NZ for similar missions.

QF 380 and 744 to potentially be replaced to the US and also for ULH flying. Shifting the 380 to Asia JNB, and SCL. This would also be an order for the 778 to allow nonstop to SYD/MEL-LHR/JFK/GRU.

NZ could replace the 772 with the 778 and the 77W with 779 - but would be a lot of capacity for them, and heavy for Tasman and Pacfic island services which they are used for a lot during long haul missions. They could also order more 789 for ULH and 778 for heavier missions to LAX/SFO/LHR/HKG/NRT but depends on their new config.

Both NZ and QF orders to me sit neck and neck with their 350 competitors.
 
TranscendZac
Posts: 110
Joined: Sat Jun 13, 2015 12:50 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:27 pm

I can see QF, KE, NZ, AA, and a mix of Chinese carriers. Once the plane enters service I can see more orders. There are still a ton of young 77W out there which undoubtedly impacts 777X sales as well.
Zac
 
SteelChair
Posts: 586
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:31 pm

Imho most international airlines have finally realized that there is too much capacity. Witness the death of the 748 and A380. 75% of 777x orders are from ME3. I forsee a dismal future for the 777x, its simply too big. The real action is in the 787 to A350 size (some might even say that the 350 is a little too big).
 
tullamarine
Posts: 1962
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:34 pm

TranscendZac wrote:
I can see QF, KE, NZ, AA, and a mix of Chinese carriers. Once the plane enters service I can see more orders. There are still a ton of young 77W out there which undoubtedly impacts 777X sales as well.

QF are definitiely a chance if the 778 wins the Sunrise ULR competition, otherwise no hope as the A359/J would get the business.

I doubt NZ would go for the 779 which is just too big for their needs. NZ relies on feed from AU for its long-haul services and this is under pressure as more and more non-stop long-haul services between AU and the Americas start. I would think the A350 is more suitably sized for NZ.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
Swadian
Posts: 441
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2016 4:56 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:44 pm

QF - Project Sunrise
BA - replace 744 / A380
AA - supplement 77W
SV - need capacity
SU - might need capacity
TK - need capacity
CA - need capacity
MU - need capacity
CZ - need capacity
AC - need capacity
AI - need capacity
KE - replace 744, 748, 77W, A380

Basically lots of orders from Asia due to the booming Asian market. 60% of the world's population lives in Asia and they have a long way to grow. I wouldn't be surprised if even smaller Chinese airlines like HU end up leasing a 778 or 779 due to their bottomless pit of subsides and population. Also cancellations by EY likely.
John Wang, Founder and President of Inland Streamliner.
 
ericm2031
Posts: 958
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 8:46 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:08 pm

Definitely could see BA using the type as they have a ton of WB’s up for replacement soon. Between BA and QF, those are crucial to get other top customers to join SQ and LH.

AA eventually could replace their 77W’s and since they cancelled the A350, I don’t see the A35J as an option, but this is still a while out...I also question if AA needs anything of that capacity. UA is in a similar boat but has even newer 77W’s so they’re even farther out, but the A35J would be a viable option if they stick with the A359’s.
 
RainerBoeing777
Posts: 255
Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:43 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Thu Jan 03, 2019 10:41 pm

Eva Airways (BR) is a big operator of Boeing 77W I think they would choose to buy Boeing 77X
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
osupoke07
Posts: 126
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 1:39 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:10 pm

TranscendZac wrote:
I can see QF, KE, NZ, AA, and a mix of Chinese carriers. Once the plane enters service I can see more orders. There are still a ton of young 77W out there which undoubtedly impacts 777X sales as well.


AA had their 77W delivered from 2012 to 2016, so they are all still very young. I bet they replace them with 779, but not until the 2030+ time frame. The only way I see them buying them before that is if they need more premium lift.
MD82, MD83, MD88, B717, B732, B733, B735, B737, B738, B739, B752, B763, B77W, CR2, CR7, CR9, A320, A321
 
User avatar
ER757
Posts: 3212
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:16 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:32 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Eva Airways (BR) is a big operator of Boeing 77W I think they would choose to buy Boeing 77X

Could definitely see BR order some eventually - maybe CA would be a candidate as well if trade tensions between the US and China subside
 
jagraham
Posts: 650
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:55 pm

The 77X has 326 orders and only Ethiad's 25 are shaky. Until the 787, 300 secure orders to start a widebody program was pretty good.

The end-of-line 77W campaign, with low prices and PIPs, took out a lot of airlines which would be candidates for 77X.
But I believe the 77X can deliver on its numbers, and while the 779 is a BIG twin, the 778 is a 77W capacity airplane. With 10 abreast 18" seats in coach, it should end up a little lighter than the 77W since it is shorter. Airlines like NZ which probably doesn't want dozens of 420 pax 779s, should be quite happy with the 778 over the years.
But KE should be added to the list. And some Chinese airlines will take them IF we get past this trade trouble.
 
bzcat
Posts: 325
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 11:34 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:11 am

I would think that most 77W operators will eventually order some. The only ones that may not are the one that have A359 and may choose A351 instead to replace their 77W.
 
Jefford717
Posts: 4
Joined: Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:36 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:24 am

I can see most of the current 777-300ER 10 abreast economy and A380 operators as a potential 777X customer. However, I don’t see them placing an order anytime soon since most of the 77W and A388 are relatively new.
 
SteelChair
Posts: 586
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:46 am

jagraham wrote:
The 77X has 326 orders and only Ethiad's 25 are shaky. Until the 787, 300 secure orders to start a widebody program was pretty good.

The end-of-line 77W campaign, with low prices and PIPs, took out a lot of airlines which would be candidates for 77X.
But I believe the 77X can deliver on its numbers, and while the 779 is a BIG twin, the 778 is a 77W capacity airplane. With 10 abreast 18" seats in coach, it should end up a little lighter than the 77W since it is shorter. Airlines like NZ which probably doesn't want dozens of 420 pax 779s, should be quite happy with the 778 over the years.
But KE should be added to the list. And some Chinese airlines will take them IF we get past this trade trouble.


You don't consider Emirates 150 orders and Qatars 60 orders just a little shaky considering their current problems and the up and coming Turkish competitor hub?

The problem with the 778 is that it is sub optimized like the A310, B762, 727-100, 747SP, L1011-500, A318, A319, and 737-7. All of which sold poorly compared to their bigger brethren.
 
User avatar
Continental767
Posts: 138
Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:47 am

I can definitely see Ethiopian ordering some.
Indianapolis.
 
cledaybuck
Posts: 1102
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:25 am

SteelChair wrote:
jagraham wrote:
The 77X has 326 orders and only Ethiad's 25 are shaky. Until the 787, 300 secure orders to start a widebody program was pretty good.

The end-of-line 77W campaign, with low prices and PIPs, took out a lot of airlines which would be candidates for 77X.
But I believe the 77X can deliver on its numbers, and while the 779 is a BIG twin, the 778 is a 77W capacity airplane. With 10 abreast 18" seats in coach, it should end up a little lighter than the 77W since it is shorter. Airlines like NZ which probably doesn't want dozens of 420 pax 779s, should be quite happy with the 778 over the years.
But KE should be added to the list. And some Chinese airlines will take them IF we get past this trade trouble.


You don't consider Emirates 150 orders and Qatars 60 orders just a little shaky considering their current problems and the up and coming Turkish competitor hub?

The problem with the 778 is that it is sub optimized like the A310, B762, 727-100, 747SP, L1011-500, A318, A319, and 737-7. All of which sold poorly compared to their bigger brethren.
What else would EK replace their 150ish 777’s with?
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1134
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:29 am

The 777X will flop just like the A380 and 747-8. I expect only 500 maybe 600 777X's to be produced. With a only a slow trickle of freighters coming down the line in 10 years time. I expect some orders to be deferred and swapped to 787's as the market continues to shift.

Long term the 777-9 market will not exist.
Short term it will capture orders from A380 operators as they downgauge.

Widebody downgauging and point to point flights is the future. All data points to this.

1) The number of international airports doubling in less than 10 years.
2) The 787's runaway success due to it being the smallest long haul aircraft.
3) The A380's failure due to the hub and spoke model.
4) The success and high demand of new thin ultra longhaul routes that eliminate stops.
5) Downgauging of traditional widebody medium haul routes to A321NEO's and 737max's.
6) The A350-1000's low sales reflects that the sweet spot has moved to 787 size.

Short haul narrowbody flights will continue to upgauge from A320 size to A321 size. But medium haul and long haul flights will downgauge to the smallest aircraft that can fly the route.

The huge 777 replacement market is and will continue to get captured by the smaller 787 and A350-900. Some members here think replacements must be very close in size but this is not the case at all.

The huge medium haul A330 market will be captured by the smaller A321 and 797. The 787-8 will also get downgauged to 797 size when they are due for replacement.

This point to point trend is very significant. Boeing predicted this 20 years ago which is why the launched the 787. Boeing still launched the 777X as the market will not change overnight. A380 operators will not downgauge to 787's in one replacement cycle. 600 777X's will easily pay off the development costs.

The 787NEO will completely replace the 777X's in the second replacement cycle. If the 787NEO adds 10+% range the 787-10 as many members have reported will become the highest selling 787 model.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1134
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:50 am

SteelChair wrote:
The problem with the 778 is that it is sub optimized like the A310, B762, 727-100, 747SP, L1011-500, A318, A319, and 737-7. All of which sold poorly compared to their bigger brethren.

I disagree. The 777-8 is highly optimised.

The 777-8 and 777-9 only have a 7metre length difference between them. The 777-200 and 777-300 had a 10 metre length difference.

The 777-8 fuselage being shorter reduces your drag. As the wing produces the same lift then the lift to drag ratio improves. This is exactly what you want on an ultra long haul aircraft. But the exact opposite you want on a short haul aircraft.

Short haul flights are very dependang on empty weight per passenger but long haul flights the heavier aircraft can burn less fuel ig it has an excellent lift to drag ratio.

This is why the 777-8 will be heavier than the 777-300ER despite it being a shorter fuselage. That weight went into improvement the lift to drag ratio with the large wing.

So the A318 and 737-7's examples are for short haul. Their improved lift to drag ratios due to being shrinks wouldn't have been used very often but on short hops that extra weight killed them.
 
User avatar
aemoreira1981
Posts: 2266
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:17 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:59 am

The B777-9X, in my opinion, has a specific niche---the 350-400 seat range or routes with less seats but beyond the range of the B78X, or for where one needs heavy premium seating. Carriers ordering this model likely need the capacity of a 747-400 with at least 3 classes of seating, or are premium-heavy airlines who haven't been latecomers to the B77W or who haven't chosen the A35K (ruling out AA on the former with its 5-class B77Ws or JL on the latter who chose the 351). The MTOW on this frame is the same as the B777L/R---351.5 tonnes. I have to wonder if DL might consider a B777-8X order, considering JNB in mind, and the B777-8X likely could be QF's Project Sunrise aircraft.

Yes this airline is useless in a high-density configuration, but that's where a charter operator could acquire a secondhand B789 and fly it in a Y400 configuration (there is already a Y432 A359 customer).
 
jfk777
Posts: 6699
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:02 am

The 777-9 will have many sales when the A380 and 77W replacement cycle really get going. Qantas is flying its last four engined airplane to LAX, it would only be natural a 777-9 replaces them. What happens in 10 years when Lufthansa replaces their A380 and 748 fleets ? Air Canada and Air France are huge users of the 77W with some of the densest configurations and will replace them with ? 777-9.

Between the 777-9, the A350-900/1000 & 787-9/10 there are many combinations for long haul planes. The 777-9 is the best combination to move lots of people and lots of freight, it can be a great platform for a premium configuration for Cathay, Singapore and British Airways.
 
Ziyulu
Posts: 304
Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:35 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:04 am

Will any of these new airlines maintain a 3-3-3 seating on the 779?
 
SteelChair
Posts: 586
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:37 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:06 am

cledaybuck wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
jagraham wrote:
The 77X has 326 orders and only Ethiad's 25 are shaky. Until the 787, 300 secure orders to start a widebody program was pretty good.

The end-of-line 77W campaign, with low prices and PIPs, took out a lot of airlines which would be candidates for 77X.
But I believe the 77X can deliver on its numbers, and while the 779 is a BIG twin, the 778 is a 77W capacity airplane. With 10 abreast 18" seats in coach, it should end up a little lighter than the 77W since it is shorter. Airlines like NZ which probably doesn't want dozens of 420 pax 779s, should be quite happy with the 778 over the years.
But KE should be added to the list. And some Chinese airlines will take them IF we get past this trade trouble.


You don't consider Emirates 150 orders and Qatars 60 orders just a little shaky considering their current problems and the up and coming Turkish competitor hub?

The problem with the 778 is that it is sub optimized like the A310, B762, 727-100, 747SP, L1011-500, A318, A319, and 737-7. All of which sold poorly compared to their bigger brethren.
What else would EK replace their 150ish 777’s with?


Who says they will even survive? Maybe the Maktoum family will get tired of throwing good money after bad at some point.
 
User avatar
zululima
Posts: 436
Joined: Sat Jul 14, 2007 10:21 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:01 am

RJMAZ, It's unbelievable the amount of rubbish you post sometimes. Try using the words "maybe", "I think", or "my opinion" instead of stating wild speculation as fact.

RJMAZ wrote:
The 777X will flop just like the A380 and 747-8. I expect only 500 maybe 600 777X's to be produced.

Firstly, your second statement contradicts your first. Secondly, with over 300 orders at EIS and the 77W replacement cycle not really even beginning yet, this thing is going to RAKE. Your thinking is way too limited in scope; Boeing knows this is their top-end product for the next 30+ years, and it will sell plenty. Even if every airline wanted 787s and A350s, they can't have them given production constraints. With 747 and A380 not being viable programs, the 77X will own the VLA segment. Maybe you forgot that the 777 is the all-time best selling widebody, has trended upwards in capacity (due to airline preference), and that air travel numbers continue growing. How could the 77X NOT be a success?

RJMAZ wrote:
Widebody downgauging and point to point flights is the future. All data points to this.

Please post link to "all data", and don't forget the data that shows the exact opposite. There is a reason the A332, A338, A358 and 772 aren't ordered these days. You seem to be thinking of QUADS, not widebodies. Airlines very much want hugely efficient twins.

RJMAZ wrote:
1) The number of international airports doubling in less than 10 years.
2) The 787's runaway success due to it being the smallest long haul aircraft.
3) The A380's failure due to the hub and spoke model.
4) The success and high demand of new thin ultra longhaul routes that eliminate stops.
5) Downgauging of traditional widebody medium haul routes to A321NEO's and 737max's.
6) The A350-1000's low sales reflects that the sweet spot has moved to 787 size.


1. Twice as many places to fly a 77X. See previous comment about world air travel growth.
2. 787 has never been, will never be, the smallest long-haul aircraft. See 767, A330, etc
3. The A380 has many issues, only one of which is hub-and-spoke, which is still very much the largest component of the world's airline scene.
4. And success of not-so thin ULH.
5. Not really the 77Xs problem, hence the 797, which will compliment it's older sibling. Also a niche that gets a lot of a.net press.
6. Or maybe airlines would rather wait for the 77X? Eh, really the -1000 is waiting for peak 77W replacements too.

RJMAZ wrote:
medium haul and long haul flights will downgauge to the smallest aircraft that can fly the route.

Your opinion, yet again stated as fact. Obviously upguages will continue on many routes.

RJMAZ wrote:
600 777X's will easily pay off the development costs.

You just said earlier in the same post that you thought the 77X would sell 5-600. You also said it would flop. So "flop" means easily cover costs and sell hundreds?

RJMAZ wrote:
The 787NEO will completely replace the 777X's in the second replacement cycle. If the 787NEO adds 10+% range the 787-10 as many members have reported will become the highest selling 787 model.

You know precisely nothing about what will happen that far in the future, just like the rest of us. I mean, how many assumptions did you have to make to even consider that statement?

RJMAZ wrote:
The 777-8 fuselage being shorter reduces your drag.

Actually, longer fuselages have lower drag. Ask any first-year aeronautical student.
I didn't get a 'Harumph' outta that guy!
 
smartplane
Posts: 405
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:09 am

My view is Boeing has seller's remorse with the 777X. They have conditional orders for over 300, which at launch prices barely cover costs.

In contrast, the 787 and 737 are reportedly cash cows, with the promise of more as volumes increase.

Put another way, 600 sales of the X are likely to generate lower profits than the sale of 200-300 787's, though I'm sure folding wing technology costs will be transferred internally to the 787 and 797 families at inflated values, perhaps even including a royalty.

Does the Boeing Board cap 787 sales and profits by refusing to fund a second 787 wing, fuselage extension, fuel and other upgrades because it cuts into 778 territory?

Does the Boeing Board approve a 797 based on a super lightweight fuselage, which can later be offered on the 787 8-11, making the family even more profitable per unit?

Does the Boeing Board cancel the 778 to give the 787 family more wriggle room, and press ahead instead with a 10?

Or does it cancel or put the entire X project on hold?

Many critics here consider Airbus was distracted by the A380, instead of improving the A330 sooner, and building a better A350. Is Boeing doing the same with the X?

Volume profits are everything now, and niche is not.
 
JHwk
Posts: 528
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2013 2:11 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:25 am

Naysayers seem to have pretty short memories. The 777X offers an easy incremental growth from the 350 and 787, and the ability to significantly reduce costs from the top end. It is a 20-year program-- a long time to go before it will have proven itself.
 
User avatar
MrHMSH
Posts: 2309
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:32 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:45 am

I think the 777X will do fine, but nowhere near as good as the 77W due to vastly improved competition (A346 vs 789 and A350) and because the 788 and A359 sit in the sweetest spot.

RJMAZ wrote:
The 777X will flop just like the A380 and 747-8. I expect only 500 maybe 600 777X's to be produced. With a only a slow trickle of freighters coming down the line in 10 years time. I expect some orders to be deferred and swapped to 787's as the market continues to shift.

Long term the 777-9 market will not exist.
Short term it will capture orders from A380 operators as they downgauge.

Widebody downgauging and point to point flights is the future. All data points to this.

1) The number of international airports doubling in less than 10 years.
2) The 787's runaway success due to it being the smallest long haul aircraft.
3) The A380's failure due to the hub and spoke model.
4) The success and high demand of new thin ultra longhaul routes that eliminate stops.
5) Downgauging of traditional widebody medium haul routes to A321NEO's and 737max's.
6) The A350-1000's low sales reflects that the sweet spot has moved to 787 size.



The A380's failure is down to poor design choices (poor optimisation) and a simple lack of good economics vs smaller twins, long haul Point-to-Point is yet to be fully realised and demonstrated, the 787 and A350 have made new routes viable, but this is an evolutionary change, almost every widebody has made new routes viable when first introduced, apart from the A380 itself. Hubs still represent significant traffic.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1134
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:57 am

zululima wrote:
Maybe you forgot that the 777 is the all-time best selling widebody, has trended upwards in capacity (due to airline preference), and that air travel numbers continue growing. How could the 77X NOT be a success?

The reason the 777 sold extremely well is because it was the only twin engine aircraft that could fly 7000nm. It was also the most efficient aircraft that could fly 7000nm beating the A340 and 747-400 by a large margin. It allowed new long haul routes to open that wouldn't be profitable. ETOPS gave the 777 a big advantage over the A340.

Today we now have multiple twin engine aircraft that can fly 7000nm. So the 777X does not have the market to itself. It will not have the efficiency and lowest trip cost advantage it once had with the 787 and A350 on the market.

zululima wrote:
Please post link to "all data", and don't forget the data that shows the exact opposite. There is a reason the A332, A338, A358 and 772 aren't ordered these days. You seem to be thinking of QUADS, not widebodies. Airlines very much want hugely efficient twins.

The examples you gave all had more efficient larger members in the same family. That is not the issue here it is the efficient members of the 787 and A350 that are the threat.

The powerpoint slides and airline communication that is leaking out for the 797 and improved A321's all summarize the trend of increased point to point flying with small aircraft. Point to point means more passengers will bypass hubs entirely so VLA demand flying between hubs will significantly reduce. Its not rocket science.

Some people need to see flames before they can tell there is a fire.

zululima wrote:
Actually, longer fuselages have lower drag. Ask any first-year aeronautical student.
Qualified aerospace engineer here. The longer fuselage 777-300 will have more drag than a 777-200. You have more surface area. That is why the 787-10 has higher thrust engines compared to the 787-9 despite the same MTOW, the extra drag from the longer fuselage requires more thrust to maintain minimum climb.
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 7731
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:02 am

Every airline that has 777-300ERs, 747s or A380s is a potential customer.
 
Eyad89
Posts: 468
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:47 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:17 am

zululima wrote:

Boeing knows this is their top-end product for the next 30+ years, and it will sell plenty.




The biggest problem the 77X may face is the potential introduction of A350neo and 787MAX somewhere around 2025-2027. The only way for the 77X to survive then is to launch a 777X-MAX, and there is no way that would happen during that time with such a limited demand.

The A330neo was a low-risk investment because the Trent 7000 is basically a derivative of the Trent 1000, it wasn't exactly a clean sheet design. The program was launched in 2014 with an EIS date only 3 years after that. That's such a short development cycle for a new engine. Well, it wasn't technically a new engine. Any new engine for the 77X would have to be a completely clean sheet design, and GE or other OEM's wouldn't do that unless there was a real market.
 
ewt340
Posts: 379
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:29 am

Realistically speaking, many airlines are downgrading capacity and increasing frequencies these days.

KLM B747-400 and B777-300ER currently have almost the same seat count. Many of their B777-300ER are still extremely young. So no B777-9X for the next 15-20 years.
SAA is an Airbus operator. A340-600 could be easily replaced by A350-1000 or even the smaller A350-900.
Air India is in the brink of collapse. Besides, smaller planes like B787 and A330neo would be a better fit for them financially.
PIA's current load factor is in the low 70% on average. They need smaller aircraft instead of B777X. I would say A350-900 and B787-9 would work better for them.
Swiss already got B777-300ER, most of those are extremely young. So no B777X for another 15-20 years.
Saudia's B777-300ER have low density configs. They could also easily put 550 seats into B777-300ER for hajj flights.

IAG, B777-9 only for British Airways. I don't see any future in Aer Lingus or Iberia. They already choose A350 instead.
AF is 50/50. They love B777-300ER BUT, since the collapse of A380's strategy, B777-300ER might be the largest aircraft they could profitably operated.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 11454
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:33 am

RJMAZ wrote:
6) The A350-1000's low sales reflects that the sweet spot has moved to 787 size.

This is wayyyyyyyy too presumptive.

Most notably due to the fact that the oldest 77W in service is still only 15yrs-old this year.
Their replacement cycle, at which the A35K (and to some extent the 779) is based, has barely begun.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
MileHFL400
Topic Author
Posts: 532
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:17 am

I’m surprised none of the leasing companies have placed orders? ALC? Gen Electric?
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
MileHFL400
Topic Author
Posts: 532
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:56 am

SteelChair wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
SteelChair wrote:

You don't consider Emirates 150 orders and Qatars 60 orders just a little shaky considering their current problems and the up and coming Turkish competitor hub?

The problem with the 778 is that it is sub optimized like the A310, B762, 727-100, 747SP, L1011-500, A318, A319, and 737-7. All of which sold poorly compared to their bigger brethren.
What else would EK replace their 150ish 777’s with?


Who says they will even survive? Maybe the Maktoum family will get tired of throwing good money after bad at some point.


That’s a pretty silly statement.
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 11454
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:05 am

RJMAZ wrote:
The reason the 777 sold extremely well is because it was the only twin engine aircraft that could fly 7000nm.

Huh?

The 772ER destroyed the M11, A343, and last of the 744 orders... yet you can count the number of 7000nm routes it ever flew on one hand: EWR-HKG, EWR-BOM, and JFK-BOM. That's about it.

The 77L barely sold 60 units as a pax model, so no sales accolades there.

Lastly, the 77W is the sales champion of the family, but most airlines didn't start operating it on the 7000nm+ routes until it'd already been in service for years, and sold hundreds of examples flying far shorter routings.

That assessment doesn't hold water.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1134
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:11 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Huh?

The 772ER destroyed the M11, A343, and last of the 744 orders... yet you can count the number of 7000nm routes it ever flew on one hand: EWR-HKG, EWR-BOM, and JFK-BOM. That's about it.

The 77L barely sold 60 units as a pax model, so no sales accolades there.

Lastly, the 77W is the sales champion of the family, but most airlines didn't start operating it on the 7000nm+ routes until it'd already been in service for years, and sold hundreds of examples flying far shorter routings.

That assessment doesn't hold water.

I was quoting wiki range for consistency.

7000nm wiki range translates into 6000nm real life range with reserves, winds, winter weather. There are plenty of 6000nm routes.

If I had of stated 6000nm then users here would then bring up that the 767 can fly that far when no 767 has actually flown between two airports 6000nm apart in airline service.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 11454
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:14 am

RJMAZ wrote:
I was quoting wiki range for consistency.

7000nm wiki range translates into 6000nm real life range with reserves, winds, winter weather. There are plenty of 6000nm routes.

If I had of stated 6000nm then users here would then bring up that the 767 can fly that far when no 767 has actually flown between two airports 6000nm apart in airline service.

That's one of the weaker attempts at revisionism I've seen in a while, but... sure. :)
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
EChid
Posts: 381
Joined: Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:00 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:08 pm

Swadian wrote:
AC - need capacity

Basically lots of orders from Asia due to the booming Asian market. 60% of the world's population lives in Asia and they have a long way to grow. I wouldn't be surprised if even smaller Chinese airlines like HU end up leasing a 778 or 779 due to their bottomless pit of subsides and population. Also cancellations by EY likely.

While you're not alone in guessing AC is a likely contender - I don't really see that as much. Yes, they operate plenty of 77Ws in high-density format, but they do that because it's the more profitable configuration to operate them in and they can't sell a less-dense/more-premium configuration. AC may benefit from capacity in some limited scenarios (some routes at YYZ), but I think that ignores the seasonality issues that they have. Those 77Ws may be nice in the summer, but they are a tough haul in the offseason (which is fairly long for AC).

I would actually expect something more along the lines of a A359/J order...but once again, that's at least a decade off.
2018: DRW-PER-HKG-ICN-MEL-AVV-BNE-OOL-SYD-YYZ-YYZ-YUL-YVR-PDX-SEA-SFO-PEK-KIX-CDG-IST-NRT-HND-BKK-FAT; AC J-TK J-OZ F-DL F-TG J/F-NH J/F-CX J-VA J
 
EChid
Posts: 381
Joined: Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:00 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:15 pm

Ziyulu wrote:
Will any of these new airlines maintain a 3-3-3 seating on the 779?

Very doubtful. The 779 has a slightly widened cabin, making it more friendly to the 3-4-3 layout, and it wouldn't be competitive, profitable, or even easy to advertise a 3-3-3 cabin. The big orders thus far are from QR, EK, and LH. QR and EK already operate their 777s in 3-4-3, and LH isn't known for making pro-comfort/anti-profit decisions.
2018: DRW-PER-HKG-ICN-MEL-AVV-BNE-OOL-SYD-YYZ-YYZ-YUL-YVR-PDX-SEA-SFO-PEK-KIX-CDG-IST-NRT-HND-BKK-FAT; AC J-TK J-OZ F-DL F-TG J/F-NH J/F-CX J-VA J
 
Ziyulu
Posts: 304
Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:35 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:48 pm

EChid wrote:
Ziyulu wrote:
Will any of these new airlines maintain a 3-3-3 seating on the 779?

Very doubtful. The 779 has a slightly widened cabin, making it more friendly to the 3-4-3 layout, and it wouldn't be competitive, profitable, or even easy to advertise a 3-3-3 cabin. The big orders thus far are from QR, EK, and LH. QR and EK already operate their 777s in 3-4-3, and LH isn't known for making pro-comfort/anti-profit decisions.


Is the width still more narrow than a 747?
 
musman9853
Posts: 345
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:30 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:12 pm

Swadian wrote:
QF - Project Sunrise
BA - replace 744 / A380
AA - supplement 77W
SV - need capacity
SU - might need capacity
TK - need capacity
CA - need capacity
MU - need capacity
CZ - need capacity
AC - need capacity
AI - need capacity
KE - replace 744, 748, 77W, A380

Basically lots of orders from Asia due to the booming Asian market. 60% of the world's population lives in Asia and they have a long way to grow. I wouldn't be surprised if even smaller Chinese airlines like HU end up leasing a 778 or 779 due to their bottomless pit of subsides and population. Also cancellations by EY likely.



Really doubt aa will get the x. They're going all in on the 787
 
jfk777
Posts: 6699
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:14 pm

EChid wrote:
Swadian wrote:
AC - need capacity

Basically lots of orders from Asia due to the booming Asian market. 60% of the world's population lives in Asia and they have a long way to grow. I wouldn't be surprised if even smaller Chinese airlines like HU end up leasing a 778 or 779 due to their bottomless pit of subsides and population. Also cancellations by EY likely.

While you're not alone in guessing AC is a likely contender - I don't really see that as much. Yes, they operate plenty of 77Ws in high-density format, but they do that because it's the more profitable configuration to operate them in and they can't sell a less-dense/more-premium configuration. AC may benefit from capacity in some limited scenarios (some routes at YYZ), but I think that ignores the seasonality issues that they have. Those 77Ws may be nice in the summer, but they are a tough haul in the offseason (which is fairly long for AC).

I would actually expect something more along the lines of a A359/J order...but once again, that's at least a decade off.


Air Canada has some seasonality concerns but also has plenty of contra season routes, Latin America, The Caribbean and Australia. Canadians go to Barbados in droves to escape those crazy winters. Many AC 77W routes that do carry some tourists travel in the summer have huge Business Demand annually, London, Tokyo and Hong Kong are huge business centers for Canada. The 77W also has huge freight demand which is yearly revenue. The 77W mission at AC is for the dense cities but the true international star is the 787-9 which flies to India from both Toronto and Vancouver to India plus Dubai too. AC has a diverse international fleet but a limited number of 777.
Last edited by jfk777 on Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jagraham
Posts: 650
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:24 pm

SteelChair wrote:
jagraham wrote:
The 77X has 326 orders and only Ethiad's 25 are shaky. Until the 787, 300 secure orders to start a widebody program was pretty good.

The end-of-line 77W campaign, with low prices and PIPs, took out a lot of airlines which would be candidates for 77X.
But I believe the 77X can deliver on its numbers, and while the 779 is a BIG twin, the 778 is a 77W capacity airplane. With 10 abreast 18" seats in coach, it should end up a little lighter than the 77W since it is shorter. Airlines like NZ which probably doesn't want dozens of 420 pax 779s, should be quite happy with the 778 over the years.
But KE should be added to the list. And some Chinese airlines will take them IF we get past this trade trouble.


You don't consider Emirates 150 orders and Qatars 60 orders just a little shaky considering their current problems and the up and coming Turkish competitor hub?

The problem with the 778 is that it is sub optimized like the A310, B762, 727-100, 747SP, L1011-500, A318, A319, and 737-7. All of which sold poorly compared to their bigger brethren.


The "sub optimized" 778 will outperform the 77W for any stage length. And at least equal the A351 while delivering more payload and range.
No it won't equal the 779 in CASM, but it will be close - and with 60 less seats to fill.
If it was all about CASM, everybody would replace everything they have with 779s. But there is the actual number of passengers an airline can profitably carry to consider. Which is why the 787 and A359 are selling so well.
 
User avatar
Faro
Posts: 1819
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 1:08 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:59 pm

Very difficult to say whether the trend towards smaller widebodies is truly a secular one or not...I think the 779 will sell well and make money for Boeing and GE...but perhaps in the longer term, over + 20 years, not over the nest 5-10...


Faro
The chalice not my son
 
whywhyzee
Posts: 822
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:12 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:11 pm

EChid wrote:
Swadian wrote:
AC - need capacity

Basically lots of orders from Asia due to the booming Asian market. 60% of the world's population lives in Asia and they have a long way to grow. I wouldn't be surprised if even smaller Chinese airlines like HU end up leasing a 778 or 779 due to their bottomless pit of subsides and population. Also cancellations by EY likely.

While you're not alone in guessing AC is a likely contender - I don't really see that as much. Yes, they operate plenty of 77Ws in high-density format, but they do that because it's the more profitable configuration to operate them in and they can't sell a less-dense/more-premium configuration. AC may benefit from capacity in some limited scenarios (some routes at YYZ), but I think that ignores the seasonality issues that they have. Those 77Ws may be nice in the summer, but they are a tough haul in the offseason (which is fairly long for AC).

I would actually expect something more along the lines of a A359/J order...but once again, that's at least a decade off.


Remember, most of AC's 77Ws are in a relatively normal configuration, they have a subfleet in a high density low premium configuration. They still fill them year round, they just use the lowest winter months for maintenance andnrunba slightly less intense schedule. Speaking for YYZ, seasonal variation is limited on most core markets that actually see the 777, downsizing isn't an option IMO. They coukd benefit from a 779 with an extra row or two in each cabin. What you probably won't see is a 779 replacing the HD 77Ws, that might be a little too large. Remember, the HD 777s are much newer, so their replacement cycle isn't due for at least 20 years, and could easily go farther.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1134
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:34 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
That's one of the weaker attempts at revisionism I've seen in a while, but... sure. :)

I am still 100% correct when I stated the 777 was the first 7000nm range twin. Just because no 777-200ER or 777-300ER actually flew 7000nm does not chnge that fact.

The 747-400 also had a brochure range over 7000nm but no aircraft flew within 500nm of the brochure range. Reserves and headwinds apply to all aircraft.

This was in response to a member saying the 767ER should still be selling if airlines did prefer the smallest type that can fly the distance. The 767 can only fly 5500nm with penalties so a class below the 777. But the fact the old 767's are sticking around so long goes with my theory that airlines prefer the smallest widebody that can fly a route.

Feel free to show me some routes that reach the wikipedia range on any aircraft. I am 99% sure Perth to London is the only route where an aircraft actually travels its wikipedia brochure range.
 
VSMUT
Posts: 2154
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:35 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
1. AF were the first to get the B777-300ER, will they need to order the -9 to replace their initial batch?
2. KL to replace their last B747-400’s?


Doubtful. These will probably be replaced with 787s and A350s, of which the group has plenty on order. For KLM it is already too late, the 747s are being replaced with 787s and A350s by 2021. For the 777-300ERs, you need to wait another 10-15 years.



MileHFL400 wrote:
3. SAA to replace A340-600’s?


I wouldn't count on it. They wanted A350-900s to replace them before that plan was scuppered, and the alternative at the time was the 787.


ericm2031 wrote:
Definitely could see BA using the type as they have a ton of WB’s up for replacement soon.


They really don't. They have 35 747s left, and they already ordered the same number of A350-1000s, 787-10s and 777-300ERs to replace them. Next up for replacement would be the 777-200s, but then you are looking at the larger 787s or the A350-900, not the 777X.


Turkish Airlines would be a good bet.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 19366
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:07 pm

SteelChair wrote:
You don't consider Emirates 150 orders and Qatars 60 orders just a little shaky considering their current problems and the up and coming Turkish competitor hub?

The owner of EK's face is on their money.

They have a lot more staying power than many give them credit for.

It doesn't work the same way in Turkey.

I'd be more worried about Turkey being shaky and people not being willing to use IST as a transit hub when such shakiness become visible.

SteelChair wrote:
The problem with the 778 is that it is sub optimized like the A310, B762, 727-100, 747SP, L1011-500, A318, A319, and 737-7. All of which sold poorly compared to their bigger brethren.

And yet EK keeps buying A380s so your theory about avoiding sub optimization is wrong.

EK had both 787 and A350 in house for a thorough vetting for their regional bid, and I'm sure if they were missing something about optimization versus their other fleet needs it would have become evident.

Instead we have them ordering A380s, 777Xs, and 787-10s.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
bob75013
Posts: 534
Joined: Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:05 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:19 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
That's one of the weaker attempts at revisionism I've seen in a while, but... sure. :)

I am still 100% correct when I stated the 777 was the first 7000nm range twin. Just because no 777-200ER or 777-300ER actually flew 7000nm does not chnge that fact.

The 747-400 also had a brochure range over 7000nm but no aircraft flew within 500nm of the brochure range. Reserves and headwinds apply to all aircraft.

This was in response to a member saying the 767ER should still be selling if airlines did prefer the smallest type that can fly the distance. The 767 can only fly 5500nm with penalties so a class below the 777. But the fact the old 767's are sticking around so long goes with my theory that airlines prefer the smallest widebody that can fly a route.

Feel free to show me some routes that reach the wikipedia range on any aircraft. I am 99% sure Perth to London is the only route where an aircraft actually travels its wikipedia brochure range.


Actually what you said was "The reason the 777 sold extremely well is because it was the only twin engine aircraft that could fly 7000nm."

But as has already been pointed out, most didn't fly that range til years after it's introduction. Ergo, it sold well for a reason other than it's 7000nm range.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos