robsaw
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:49 pm

zululima wrote:
Actually, longer fuselages have lower drag. Ask any first-year aeronautical student.
Qualified aerospace engineer here. The longer fuselage 777-300 will have more drag than a 777-200. You have more surface area. That is why the 787-10 has higher thrust engines compared to the 787-9 despite the same MTOW, the extra drag from the longer fuselage requires more thrust to maintain minimum climb.[/quote]

I suspect the comment about drag and fuselage length was confusing drag coefficient vs total drag. Typically, a longer fuselage of the same diameter will have a better Cd due to the fineness ratio (I think I got that parameter right?), within limits. Getting a better overall drag though simply by a longer fuselage of the same diameter doesn't appear to be a mathematical possibility within practical limits.
 
robsaw
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:08 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
Actually, longer fuselages have lower drag. Ask any first-year aeronautical student.
Qualified aerospace engineer here. The longer fuselage 777-300 will have more drag than a 777-200. You have more surface area. That is why the 787-10 has higher thrust engines compared to the 787-9 despite the same MTOW, the extra drag from the longer fuselage requires more thrust to maintain minimum climb.[/quote]

I suspect the comment about drag and fuselage length was confusing drag coefficient vs total drag. Typically, a longer fuselage of the same diameter will have a better Cd due to the fineness ratio (I think I got that parameter right?), within limits. Getting a better overall drag though simply by a longer fuselage of the same diameter doesn't appear to be a mathematical possibility within practical limits.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:39 pm

The 777X family at best will sell 300 copies total, with a lot of help from US Embassies around the world.

There is no mission 787 family members cannot achieve, other than carrying more empty seat category. A revamped 788 is better suited for current 787 customers looking for long thin routes.
 
MileHFL400
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:02 pm

bob75013 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
That's one of the weaker attempts at revisionism I've seen in a while, but... sure. :)

I am still 100% correct when I stated the 777 was the first 7000nm range twin. Just because no 777-200ER or 777-300ER actually flew 7000nm does not chnge that fact.

The 747-400 also had a brochure range over 7000nm but no aircraft flew within 500nm of the brochure range. Reserves and headwinds apply to all aircraft.

This was in response to a member saying the 767ER should still be selling if airlines did prefer the smallest type that can fly the distance. The 767 can only fly 5500nm with penalties so a class below the 777. But the fact the old 767's are sticking around so long goes with my theory that airlines prefer the smallest widebody that can fly a route.

Feel free to show me some routes that reach the wikipedia range on any aircraft. I am 99% sure Perth to London is the only route where an aircraft actually travels its wikipedia brochure range.


Actually what you said was "The reason the 777 sold extremely well is because it was the only twin engine aircraft that could fly 7000nm."

But as has already been pointed out, most didn't fly that range til years after it's introduction. Ergo, it sold well for a reason other than it's 7000nm range.


Sole aircraft in its size class with twin engine efficiency.
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
wingman
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:09 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
The 777X family at best will sell 300 copies total, with a lot of help from US Embassies around the world.

There is no mission 787 family members cannot achieve, other than carrying more empty seat category. A revamped 788 is better suited for current 787 customers looking for long thin routes.


Is POTUS on A.net? This reads like one of his late night tweets.
 
MileHFL400
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:20 pm

wingman wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
The 777X family at best will sell 300 copies total, with a lot of help from US Embassies around the world.

There is no mission 787 family members cannot achieve, other than carrying more empty seat category. A revamped 788 is better suited for current 787 customers looking for long thin routes.


Is POTUS on A.net? This reads like one of his late night tweets.


And the inaccurate facts in it, hasn’t the 777X family already sold over 300 copies?
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
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OA940
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:42 pm

The 777X was built to be a long-term plane. As 77W's reach 15-20 years of age in mass that's when the orders will start piling on. Most Asian operators of the 77W will probably take the 777X as well, seeing the rate of their growth. Airlines at slot-constricted airports like BA or AF will also probably get some. No doubt the sweet spot is in the 787-9/A350-900 capacity, but slots don't grow on trees. Ohterwise all long-haul routes would be operated by small planes.

Also for some reason people seem to think that 300 orders before launch is bad? Why?
A350/CSeries = bae
 
ist2014
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 8:51 pm

Maybe TK will interest together with 778 and replacement of early 332,333 and 77w
They want to launch Syd/mel ASAP, so if they can not use 359/359 ulr, the only option will be 778, so 5-7 778 makes sense for TK and maybe eventually 30 779 (replacement of 77w)
 
behramjee
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:08 pm

As far as new customer orders in the short term future (1-3 years) are concerned for the B779, I only foresee :

Qantas ordering 10-15 to replace their A380 fleet between 2025-2030 period

Saudia ordering as a B77W replacement for delivery starting during the latter part of the next decade
 
Planeflyer
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:13 pm

I’ll bet dimes to $ The 777x goes above 600 deliveries
 
behramjee
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:20 pm

As far as new customer orders in the short term future (1-3 years) are concerned for the B779, I only foresee :

Qantas ordering 10-15 to replace their A380 fleet between 2025-2030 period

Saudia ordering as a B77W replacement for delivery starting during the latter part of the next decade
 
jfk777
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:02 am

Two countries with airlines full of 77W which have not ordered 777-9 are Taiwan and South Korea. Korean Air has no choice but to buy them since their A380 will need replacing and so do many 77W currently in the fleet. China and EVA Air have many 77W some which are older as well as new ones, TPE will see many 777-9. SO far only Cathay, ANA and Singapore Air have ordered the 777-9 in Asia-Pacific, so many orders will have to come for replacement and expansion.
 
SteelChair
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sat Jan 05, 2019 1:42 am

Look at the tenor of the conversation. People are speculating 300-600 deliveries.

By comparison, the legacy 777 has delivered almost 1,600 and has almost 2,000 total orders (400ish left to deliver).

In other words, people think the 777x will deliver in the region of what the legacy 777 has in outstanding orders remaining. Not a pretty picture. Not 748 bad but still not very optimistic.

The 777x is TOO BIG. Future prosepcts, while not horrific, are far from great. I think anything less than 800-1,000 will be a huge disappointment for Boeing. Mho. I would love for the roaring world economy of the future to prove me wrong.
Last edited by SteelChair on Sat Jan 05, 2019 1:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sat Jan 05, 2019 1:44 am

Planeflyer wrote:
I’ll bet dimes to $ The 777x goes above 600 deliveries

Many would have said that about the A330NEO 3 years ago. Most people now believe the NEO is in trouble. The 777X will be the same.

The A330NEO failed to secure sufficient orders to allow for a significant production ramp up. At the low production rate the cost per aircraft can not come down. The profit per plane reduces to the point where Airbus would rather sell A350's.

This will happen with the 777X with Boeing prefering to sell high profit margin 787's. The final number of 777X's produced depends entirely on Boeings willingness to accept a very low profit margin on each aircraft. I believe Boeing knows the 777X is only a short to medium term solution that will break even making it a simple business decision. Boeing will hand the reigns over to more profitable 787NEO around 2030.

The 787 leap frogged the 77W in terms of engine tech by 5% SFC. The 777X is now leap frogging the 787 by 5% SFC. The big problem is the 787NEO will also leap frog the 777X by 5%. The 787NEO will kill the 777X as the 777X proudction line will not last until the 777XNeo.

If the 787NEO gets a 15% range extension it allows the 787 to fly as far as the 777-8. The 787-10 could fly as far as the current 787-9. Some member have said at this time Boeing will probably launch a 787-11.
 
trex8
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sat Jan 05, 2019 2:46 am

jfk777 wrote:
Two countries with airlines full of 77W which have not ordered 777-9 are Taiwan and South Korea. Korean Air has no choice but to buy them since their A380 will need replacing and so do many 77W currently in the fleet. China and EVA Air have many 77W some which are older as well as new ones, TPE will see many 777-9. SO far only Cathay, ANA and Singapore Air have ordered the 777-9 in Asia-Pacific, so many orders will have to come for replacement and expansion.


CI only have 10 77Ws and 4 744s. I see A350-1000s to replace those. BR on the other hand has over 30. Some of those may be replaced by 787-10. But they may not want bigger planes, they have increased ASKs flown by x% last few years but revenue by x/2. They need to improve their revenue management and bigger planes may not be the best solution.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:02 am

bob75013 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
That's one of the weaker attempts at revisionism I've seen in a while, but... sure. :)

I am still 100% correct when I stated the 777 was the first 7000nm range twin. Just because no 777-200ER or 777-300ER actually flew 7000nm does not chnge that fact.

Actually what you said was "The reason the 777 sold extremely well is because it was the only twin engine aircraft that could fly 7000nm."

But as has already been pointed out, most didn't fly that range til years after it's introduction. Ergo, it sold well for a reason other than it's 7000nm range.

:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:



RJMAZ wrote:
Feel free to show me some routes that reach the wikipedia range on any aircraft. I am 99% sure Perth to London is the only route where an aircraft actually travels its wikipedia brochure range.

Can we dispense with the ridiculousness of some "Wikipedia range"... the hell does that even mean, anyway?

Regard;ess, if you're speaking of the OEM's advertised range, then yes, aircraft can/do exceed that all the time, as the number isn't static. UA's former LAX-SIN was another example.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Planeflyer
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:24 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
I’ll bet dimes to $ The 777x goes above 600 deliveries

Many would have said that about the A330NEO 3 years ago. Most people now believe the NEO is in trouble. The 777X will be the same.

The A330NEO failed to secure sufficient orders to allow for a significant production ramp up. At the low production rate the cost per aircraft can not come down. The profit per plane reduces to the point where Airbus would rather sell A350's.

This will happen with the 777X with Boeing prefering to sell high profit margin 787's. The final number of 777X's produced depends entirely on Boeings willingness to accept a very low profit margin on each aircraft. I believe Boeing knows the 777X is only a short to medium term solution that will break even making it a simple business decision. Boeing will hand the reigns over to more profitable 787NEO around 2030.

The 787 leap frogged the 77W in terms of engine tech by 5% SFC. The 777X is now leap frogging the 787 by 5% SFC. The big problem is the 787NEO will also leap frog the 777X by 5%. The 787NEO will kill the 777X as the 777X proudction line will not last until the 777XNeo.

If the 787NEO gets a 15% range extension it allows the 787 to fly as far as the 777-8. The 787-10 could fly as far as the current 787-9. Some member have said at this time Boeing will probably launch a 787-11.



Many did say The 330neo would be a success. But I wasn’t one of them. The neo didn’t do enough.

I think like the w before it the 779 will be a very pleasant surprise. Lots of big city pairs between NA and Asia which will fill it.

And many said we’d be back at $100 oil by now while I have said that we’d be between 30-70 for at least the next 15 years. Perfect environment for the 779.
 
Okcflyer
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:54 am

I’ll be very surprised if a re-engined 787 or A350 is available by 2030 that cuts SFC by 10% or more than current. I think such talk is overly optimistic. Latest engines are converging on fundamental thermal limitations and future SFC efficiency gains are an order of magnitude harder to achieve.

GE9X is pushing thermal limits, and future pips planned with further CMC usage nearly much max out what’s achievable in a decade. It remains to be seen whether GENX can benefit from higher temps with a PIP using these to narrow the gap to next-gen.

RR Advance will likely be more cost effective from a manufacturing perspective thanks to needing fewer low compressor and tubine stages due to the geared fan, but propulsive efficiency is already nearly maxed out already on current systems. The gains in the narrowbody space do not translate to the widebody space ... fan sizes have been more optimum for some time.

As such, I think we’re more akin to the early 80’s period where current technology is going to be relevant for longer than normal amount of time. For me, future gains will be smaller than the large pronounced ones we just went through.

————

For me, 777-9 success is largely going to depend upon what the premium cabin market does. If first, business, premium economy, and other high revenue products continue to do well, I think the 779 does well as it has the space for them and overall pax count is reasonable. If for some reason these products are significantly weakened by fractional/shared jet market or other modes (less need to travel w/technology?) or upper middle class slows growth due to macro economic conditions, then the 779 is in deep trouble as then it’s too much capacity for most operators/city pairs.

Basically, the 779 capacity needs to be consumed by space-consuming but high revenue generating premium products. The Y class market I don’t see growing much above 250 maybe 300 pax per airplane for most city pairs. For lower premium demand, 787 or A350 is a better capacity match.

Other key piece to remember: for most 77W operators, the A35K is a net down gauge as it won’t support 10x in Y. While this is preferred in some cases, for the fewer higher capacity routes, this is a net revenue and profit loss for the airline.

In general, I think the 777X program will do fine. I don’t think they expected or assumed the same production volume as the current 777. I think it’s pretty clear there is a market for 400-500 planes for high capacity routes regardless. The difference in additional sales, for me, rests on what happens in the premium cabin space in the future.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:35 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Can we dispense with the ridiculousness of some "Wikipedia range"... the hell does that even mean, anyway?

Most members simply quote wikipedia as it is the quickest way to get aircraft specs. Most members wouldn't know how that range is calculated, what payload it carries, or if it can actually fly between two airports that far apart.

I think the term wikipedia range is better than saying brochure range.

Okcflyer wrote:
I’ll be very surprised if a re-engined 787 or A350 is available by 2030 that cuts SFC by 10% or more than current. I think such talk is overly optimistic. Latest engines are converging on fundamental thermal limitations and future SFC efficiency gains are an order of magnitude harder to achieve.

The GE9X would represent current technology and it is already a 5% improvement over the 787 engines.

So the 787NEO engine only needs to find a 5% improvement over GE9X technology to get a total 10% improvement over the current 787 engines.

CMC's have only just starting to appear in non moving parts in the GE9X and LEAP. Once CMC's start to appear in the turbine blades we should see further efficiency gains.

The 787NEO may use a geared turbofan. The Rolls Ultrafan which is geared and has a variable pitch fan should easily gain 5% improvement over the GE9X without going to CMC's in moving parts. The ultrafan design has been frozen and plans to be ground tested in 2021. Usually ground testing results in an engine for flight testing available within 2 years and fully in service within 5 years.

That would mean the A350 and 787's would have ultrafans available around 2026 which is much sooner than you would expect for a NEO program. The 777X would have less than 5 years SFC advantage. The A350NEO has plans to get a stretch to 80m offering 777X capacity.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... br-444920/

Much discussion regarding a further A350 stretch when the new engine comes.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... gined-a350

"London-based Rolls-Royce has earmarked service entry in 2025 for its Ultrafan model, while France’s Safran is working on a demonstrator that will be ready for ground tests by 2021."
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:57 am

behramjee wrote:
As far as new customer orders in the short term future (1-3 years) are concerned for the B779, I only foresee :

Qantas ordering 10-15 to replace their A380 fleet between 2025-2030 period

Saudia ordering as a B77W replacement for delivery starting during the latter part of the next decade


The B777-8X might be more suitable for QF with respect to Project Sunrise---a desire to fly SYD-LHR and SYD-JFK nonstop. I could actually see the B777-8X also replacing the A388s. Before the B789s, only the B744(ER) and A388 could do the truly ULH missions like SYD-DFW, and maintain a small first-class cabin. The B777-8X would also be a much better cargo hauler. I suspect that TK will also desire this model as well, perhaps even negotiating to take EY's B778 order off its hands, as I can't see EY taking that up. (For QF, I see them simplifying to 4 models at QF proper: B738/B38M, a MOM model, B778, and B789 (with a top-up order for a regional configuration).
 
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Revelation
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:28 pm

Okcflyer wrote:
I’ll be very surprised if a re-engined 787 or A350 is available by 2030 that cuts SFC by 10% or more than current. I think such talk is overly optimistic. Latest engines are converging on fundamental thermal limitations and future SFC efficiency gains are an order of magnitude harder to achieve.

That's a very interesting point of view.

We've seen in computers that fundamental limits are being hit (increasing clock frequency raises temperature to the point where the heat can't be eliminated), are we there with jet engines?

If you google "rotating cmcs" you see there was a burst of activity in 2015 that claimed success, but it's gone quiet since.

RR is adding a gear for UltraFan, will that be the best of breed engine in the early 2020s?

Will CFM and/or GE develop a geared engine?

Okcflyer wrote:
Basically, the 779 capacity needs to be consumed by space-consuming but high revenue generating premium products. The Y class market I don’t see growing much above 250 maybe 300 pax per airplane for most city pairs. For lower premium demand, 787 or A350 is a better capacity match.

Other key piece to remember: for most 77W operators, the A35K is a net down gauge as it won’t support 10x in Y. While this is preferred in some cases, for the fewer higher capacity routes, this is a net revenue and profit loss for the airline.

In general, I think the 777X program will do fine. I don’t think they expected or assumed the same production volume as the current 777. I think it’s pretty clear there is a market for 400-500 planes for high capacity routes regardless. The difference in additional sales, for me, rests on what happens in the premium cabin space in the future.

Also thought provoking.

Personally I feel the airlines are being successful using miserable Y products to drive customers to Y+ but probably not into C or F.

I think there probably will be a refactoring of C/F into something a bit less spacious and more affordable, but each iteration of the hard product life cycle seems to take many years.

I also think 777X will do fine. Comparing its market size to the days where there was no 787 and A350 is absurd. Each of the products (787, A350, 777X) bracket each other. 777X is the best that could be done short of a clean sheet, and it's clear back in 2014 or so when they were making the 777X decisions that Boeing's board had no stomach for a clean sheet.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sat Jan 05, 2019 4:31 pm

Just to be clear there will be less than 300 deliveries in total. I misstated as sales.

Very few operators are looking for large premium cabin space. EY's Residence, apartment, and first class cabins are thing of the past. J is the future F.

No one is drinking low per-seat-cost kool-aid anymore, that is so last decade. Commercial(non-state owned) airline executives are looking for low-trip cost. A fully packed 787 is good for airline's financial health than a 50%-70% LF 777X or A380.

77W had 837 total orders, I think no other large twin will break this record. Using the 2000x 777 classic family order book number is meaningless for this discussion.

Most of the 77W operators are very happy to replace them with 787s or A350s. So 777X is not the first choice for someone looking for a 77W replacement

Most A380 operators still suffering from VLA burns, their heavy trip cost makes them vulnerable to anyone with a low-cost frame with similar range. I doubt they will go for another VLA in a big way.

Connecting all these dots makes 300 a good number.
 
EChid
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:10 pm

VSMUT wrote:
Turkish Airlines would be a good bet.

I'm not sure they are quite yet. They have already expanded their fleet sizeably with the 789 and A359 order (yes, I know some are replacements - but many are not), and their 77Ws are all quite new. I would be surprised if they're willing to commit to another significant expansion at the top end (and another aircraft type) so soon after what they've committed to thus far.
2018: DRW-PER-HKG-ICN-MEL-AVV-BNE-OOL-SYD-YYZ-YYZ-YUL-YVR-PDX-SEA-SFO-PEK-KIX-CDG-IST-NRT-HND-BKK-FAT; AC J-TK J-OZ F-DL F-TG J/F-NH J/F-CX J-VA J
 
EChid
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:44 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
They coukd benefit from a 779 with an extra row or two in each cabin. What you probably won't see is a 779 replacing the HD 77Ws, that might be a little too large.

I'm not sure I get what you're saying. That they would buy the 779s, just not order them in similar HD format?
2018: DRW-PER-HKG-ICN-MEL-AVV-BNE-OOL-SYD-YYZ-YYZ-YUL-YVR-PDX-SEA-SFO-PEK-KIX-CDG-IST-NRT-HND-BKK-FAT; AC J-TK J-OZ F-DL F-TG J/F-NH J/F-CX J-VA J
 
whywhyzee
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sat Jan 05, 2019 8:21 pm

EChid wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:
They coukd benefit from a 779 with an extra row or two in each cabin. What you probably won't see is a 779 replacing the HD 77Ws, that might be a little too large.

I'm not sure I get what you're saying. That they would buy the 779s, just not order them in similar HD format?


AC has 2 77W configurations, the 400 seat normal density which is pretty close to the industry averages in terms of layout, 40J, 24 PY and 336Y. (PY is a little small, but that's because it was still very new at the time of installation). This configuration makes up the majority of the fleet, and could easily be scaled to a 779. YYZ trunk routes especially would benefit from a bit more size and premium seats.

They have the higher density lower premium configuration with less J and more Y. They are sufficiently large at this time and scaling up to a 779 would likely mean hitting the exit limit, not to mention it would be challenging to fill on many routes, there would only be a handful that could do it regularly. These will be the last 77Ws to replace, I'm not sure what I would personally do in this scenario, probably look to other fleets and play with frequencies to make up the difference.
 
mig17
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:53 pm

777-X future prospects?
=> Any airline with 747, 777, A340 or A380 to replace. That said, the business case of the 777-X isn't so bright for now. The 787 and A350 are the new"stars" and they are already here while the X isn-t ready yet. Plan to replace 747 have already been made without the 777-X. For now, all A340 and 777 except W and LR are being replaced by 787 or A350. And even when the times come to replace 77W or A380, it is not a given that the 777X will be the dedicated replacement. Or to be more precise, it doesn't seem 777X will be ...
Half of the 300 orders are "not so firm" from Emirates and it seems the 3rd custommer in numbers, Etihad, is bailing out. Lufthansa has expressed "something". In fact the only recent good news for the programme was Singapore Airlines finding A350-1000 too small.

777-X at those airline:
AF => 30% (even with a large 77W fleet, the A350 is already there)
KL => same as AF ...
BA => 35% (A35K already there)
SAA=> 0% (too much capacity)
Air India => 0% (too much capacity)
PIA => 0% (too much capacity)
Swiss => 50% (LH group)
Saudia => 30% (too much capacity but US made)
Qantas => 50% (project sunrise)
Air New Zealand => 25% (like Qantas but without the ULH project)
AA => 25% (too much capacity and 787 already there)
UA/DL => 0% (A350 there)
KE => 50% (choice between A350 and 777)
AC => 25% (787 already there)
TK => 30% (will go for 787 and A350)

None of the above have more than 50% chance ever choosing 777X. Too big, too heavy and too expensive when you can choose more versatile frames doing almost everything the new 777 can.

So yes, between 300 and 600 is the realistic target.
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travelhound
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:10 am

Interestingly, a good majority of current 77W operators have not yet ordered the A350. This could suggest the A350 sits a little below the 77W and as such is not a direct replacement.
 
smartplane
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Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:46 am

travelhound wrote:
Interestingly, a good majority of current 77W operators have not yet ordered the A350. This could suggest the A350 sits a little below the 77W and as such is not a direct replacement.

Post-CORSIA, optimum will be to fill your own smaller, modern aircraft, or share and fill larger aircraft. International routes with LF's under 70's (or even higher) will need to be right-sized, real estate shared or dropped, unless high premium content or cross-subsidised.

Next 2-4 years are the time to trial new routes and slow down deliveries of new aircraft, to flatter base period calculations, unless environmental concerns result in CORSIA milestones and/or targets being brought forward.
 
travelhound
Posts: 1798
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 1:41 am

In the last five years the cost of fuel has been relatively low. I'd suggest this has given airlines the opportunity to retain older aircraft (instead of buy new) and repair their balance sheets.

There are quite a few airlines that have been delaying the purchase of new aircraft. I'd suggest they will get to a point of where push comes to shuve. At this stage we will start to see buying trends to emerge.

If we go back to the 77W it had very few orders prior to entry into service. If you can remember back to 2003 the chat was all about the 748i and A380. The 77W was very much under the radar.
 
Planeflyer
Posts: 1197
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:49 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:50 am

travelhound wrote:
In the last five years the cost of fuel has been relatively low. I'd suggest this has given airlines the opportunity to retain older aircraft (instead of buy new) and repair their balance sheets.

There are quite a few airlines that have been delaying the purchase of new aircraft. I'd suggest they will get to a point of where push comes to shuve. At this stage we will start to see buying trends to emerge.

If we go back to the 77W it had very few orders prior to entry into service. If you can remember back to 2003 the chat was all about the 748i and A380. The 77W was very much under the radar.


The reason the cost of fuel has been low is new supply based on fracking. As prices raise above 60 huge supply comes on line. This dyanamic will keep oil between $40-70 for the next 15 years.

After that price will be driven by ev takeup. If ev takes off look for oil at less than $20 maybe even less than $10.

How all this impacts new ac purchases will be intriguing. For sure point to point and ulr will expand.
 
B1168
Posts: 167
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:26 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 3:08 am

Actually, Chinese carriers’ decisions regarding 777Xs remain to be seen. We all know that HU is yet to be able to operate just a 77w without a large hub with sufficient share. That will put the possibility of ordering the 777X down to the CN3: CA,MU,CZ.
CA and CZ both own quads for flagship routes (CA’s 748, CZ’s 380), and they both reportedly are the toughest to make profit for the airline. Turns out, CA doesn’t have the high level of service and hardware to be the preferred premium airline for traveling to China; nor does it own the best reputation ever. They even have a tough hub with less premium traffic(at least, compared to HKG),where all Chinese airlines (plus loads of foreign ones) would want a share in.
Meanwhile, CZ had to dump its 5 380s for PEK-CAN routes for 2 years (if I remember correctly) and they lost about a 737 MAX 10 worth of money out of those 2 years. To this day, they still only have limited options for flying their A380s and will have to schedule them on frequent PEK-CAN routes to turn them around. Also, 3 of its 5 A380s are banned by CAAC to operate CAN-JFK, a flight right limited route they very probably desired to operate using the largest plane they have. BTW, CAN is not deemed a 1st tier city both from pax quantity and quality.
What does the above analysis tells us? In short, it is unlikely that they actively seek a successor of their quads when they are scrapped or sold one day, due to the lack of premium cabin and the huge influx of Dreamliner routes (aka 2 tier- 1 tier long haul) that subsidies brought up in recent years.

Is there any possibility that they consider the 777X?
Sort of.
All of CN3 has 777-300ERs, and they are all quite young at mere few years old. While all of CN3s owns (or will own) A359s, A350 series can hardly be fitted a 3-4-3 abreast (imho, the only 2 A359s with a 3-4-3 abreast configuration are owned by Air Carribes), which brings 777X a major advantage. With a relatively larger premium cabin, a 77w can go with a 3-4-3 in economy without sabotaging its range, or its fame among passengers (or maybe less); A350-1000 doesn’t have such an advantage.
Short answer, Mainland Chinese carriers will only consider 777X for a 77w replacement, and they will have to make sense over A350-1000.
 
ehaase
Posts: 107
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:06 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 3:30 am

Can any of you experts see a future where Boeing drops the 777 and Airbus drops the 330 and 380, leaving Boeing with the 737(NSA)/787/797 (probably), and Airbus with the 220/320/350?
 
bunumuring
Posts: 2521
Joined: Wed Jan 15, 2014 2:56 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 3:41 am

Hey guys,
I would LOVE to see a 777 in Qantas colours as I am a fan of the type....
I see QF's widebody needs panning out in one of two ways:
[1] Dreamliners, MoMs, 777-8s (Project Sunrisers) and 777-9s (A380 replacements) with the A330s being replaced by a combination of MoMs and additional Dreamliners.
[2] Dreamliners, MoMs, A350-900s, A350-1000ULRs (Project Sunrisers) and some upgraded/possibly slightly stretched development of the A350-1000 as the A380 replacement with the MoMs, A350-900s and possibly some additional Dreamliners replacing the A330s...
Both suggestions obviously are excluding any possible miraculous development of an A380neo, which if it happens, I would predict Qantas to buy 12-16 of.
I would suggest it is highly likely that the 777 freighter will eventually find its way into the QF over time, under a similar deal to the Atlas 747-400F currently underway. Hopefully it would be fully painted like the current 767-300ERF and not just have small titles on it!
Cheers,
Bunumuring
I just wanna live while I'm alive!
 
travelhound
Posts: 1798
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 4:32 am

I don't think the QF A380's will be going anywhere soon.

The book value of QF's fleet is some where around $4.2 billion (from memory). The A380's represent something like 25% of the value of these assets ($$1.1 billion).

QF had problems operating these aircraft in the early 2010's as they were loosing market share to the ME3 and the two Asian tigers (SQ, CX). Noe that QF International will soon be back in to growth mode they will be more capable of fully utilising these assets. If they are transferred to the SE market, they will give QF almost instant capacity into key markets of Hong Kong and Singapore.

Leeham have stated the A380 is still competitive with the 777X, so if QF can utilise the capacity of these air frames, they will have significant economic value for the QF group. I'd suggest they should pick up the Malaysia Airlines A380's for some very cheap SE Asia / Europe growth.

We also have to remember the refurbishment of the A380 will allow QF to increase revenues through selling more premium seats.

A380 Seat Arrangement (Current)

Classes / Costs Current
Class Av. Cost Seats Av. Revenue
First $6,500 14 $72,800
Business $4,000 64 $204,800
Premium $2,300 35 $64,400
Economy $1,000 371 $296,800
484 $638,800

A380 Seat Arrangement (Refurbished)

Classes / Costs Refurbished
Class Av. Cost Seats Av. Revenue
First $6,500 14 $72,800
Buisness $4,000 70 $224,000
Premium $2,300 60 $110,400
Economy $1,000 341 $272,800
485 $680,000

Increase in revenue - Approximately 6% or $40,000.00 per 8 hour flight.
 
MileHFL400
Topic Author
Posts: 531
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 7:00 am

Planeflyer wrote:
travelhound wrote:
In the last five years the cost of fuel has been relatively low. I'd suggest this has given airlines the opportunity to retain older aircraft (instead of buy new) and repair their balance sheets.

There are quite a few airlines that have been delaying the purchase of new aircraft. I'd suggest they will get to a point of where push comes to shuve. At this stage we will start to see buying trends to emerge.

If we go back to the 77W it had very few orders prior to entry into service. If you can remember back to 2003 the chat was all about the 748i and A380. The 77W was very much under the radar.


The reason the cost of fuel has been low is new supply based on fracking. As prices raise above 60 huge supply comes on line. This dyanamic will keep oil between $40-70 for the next 15 years.

After that price will be driven by ev takeup. If ev takes off look for oil at less than $20 maybe even less than $10.

How all this impacts new ac purchases will be intriguing. For sure point to point and ulr will expand.


I think you’re in dream land, we will never see oil under $30
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
Swadian
Posts: 437
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2016 4:56 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 8:04 am

Ziyulu wrote:
EChid wrote:
Ziyulu wrote:
Will any of these new airlines maintain a 3-3-3 seating on the 779?

Very doubtful. The 779 has a slightly widened cabin, making it more friendly to the 3-4-3 layout, and it wouldn't be competitive, profitable, or even easy to advertise a 3-3-3 cabin. The big orders thus far are from QR, EK, and LH. QR and EK already operate their 777s in 3-4-3, and LH isn't known for making pro-comfort/anti-profit decisions.


Is the width still more narrow than a 747?


Yes, the 779 is slightly narrower inside than a 747.

musman9853 wrote:
Swadian wrote:
QF - Project Sunrise
BA - replace 744 / A380
AA - supplement 77W
SV - need capacity
SU - might need capacity
TK - need capacity
CA - need capacity
MU - need capacity
CZ - need capacity
AC - need capacity
AI - need capacity
KE - replace 744, 748, 77W, A380

Basically lots of orders from Asia due to the booming Asian market. 60% of the world's population lives in Asia and they have a long way to grow. I wouldn't be surprised if even smaller Chinese airlines like HU end up leasing a 778 or 779 due to their bottomless pit of subsides and population. Also cancellations by EY likely.



Really doubt aa will get the x. They're going all in on the 787


They have 67 777s and the 777X has fleet commonality with 787.
John Wang, Founder and President of Inland Streamliner.
 
User avatar
zkojq
Posts: 3407
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:42 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:45 am

MileHFL400 wrote:
3. SAA to replace A340-600’s?


SAA is broke and cannot afford to own their aircraft, meanwhile lessors won't touch the 777X due to its liquidity. So an SAA 777-9X seems very unlikely.

smi0006 wrote:
Potentials are QF and NZ for similar missions.

QF 380 and 744 to potentially be replaced to the US and also for ULH flying. Shifting the 380 to Asia JNB, and SCL. This would also be an order for the 778 to allow nonstop to SYD/MEL-LHR/JFK/GRU.

NZ could replace the 772 with the 778 and the 77W with 779 - but would be a lot of capacity for them, and heavy for Tasman and Pacfic island services which they are used for a lot during long haul missions. They could also order more 789 for ULH and 778 for heavier missions to LAX/SFO/LHR/HKG/NRT but depends on their new config.

Both NZ and QF orders to me sit neck and neck with their 350 competitors.


The QF and NZ RFPs will be do or die for the 777X. Both these airlines operate a higher % of ULH flights than any other carrier. IMO if the 777X doesn't win both of these the program is DOA. If the 777X can't win RFPs that should favor it significantly over its competitor, then what RFPs can it win? I'm certain Airbus is aware of this - I wonder if they will try and do to Boeing what Boeing did to them with the HA 787-9 order. A few cheap A350s could ensure that the 777X program turns into a very expensive white elephant.

tullamarine wrote:
I doubt NZ would go for the 779 which is just too big for their needs. NZ relies on feed from AU for its long-haul services and this is under pressure as more and more non-stop long-haul services between AU and the Americas start. I would think the A350 is more suitably sized for NZ.


Not only that but also Air New Zealand's long haul network has fragmented significantly in the past decade. Whilst 15 years ago the airline's North America network essentially consisted of two 747-400s per day to LAX and a 777-200ER to SFO three times a week, now the airline flies many additional destinations with plenty of extra frequencies (YVR, IAH, ORD and soon the planned NYC route).

Likewise to Asia there has been significant fragmentation. Whilst the airline used to operate twice daily to HKG, sending a 747-400 and a 777-200ER, right now they're only sending a 787-9 there, but also operate many more flights to Asia (TPE, SGN, HND, PVG, SIN).

The 777-9 doesn't really fit in with any of this fragmentation - 787-9 and A350-900 are more optimal in terms of capacity.

Swadian wrote:
QF - Project Sunrise
BA - replace 744 / A380
AA - supplement 77W
SV - need capacity
SU - might need capacity
TK - need capacity
CA - need capacity
MU - need capacity
CZ - need capacity
AC - need capacity
AI - need capacity
KE - replace 744, 748, 77W, A380

Basically lots of orders from Asia due to the booming Asian market. 60% of the world's population lives in Asia and they have a long way to grow. I wouldn't be surprised if even smaller Chinese airlines like HU end up leasing a 778 or 779 due to their bottomless pit of subsides and population. Also cancellations by EY likely.


Most of those carriers could surely better use a 787-10 - similar capacity but lower CASM. Especially for the shorter routes.

cledaybuck wrote:
What else would EK replace their 150ish 777’s with?

787-10s for Short/Medium haul routes.

zululima wrote:
1. Twice as many places to fly a 77X. See previous comment about world air travel growth.

Yet anyone who used this argument for the A380 would get flamed to death. :roll:

zululima wrote:
How could the 77X NOT be a success?

:roll: Because the 787-10 is more efficient, will have better CASM, has commonality with the rest of the 787 family, no stupid wing folding mechanism to break. You are thinking very narrowly. RJMAZ is right in that smaller twins better support fragmentation.

MileHFL400 wrote:
I’m surprised none of the leasing companies have placed orders? ALC? Gen Electric?


The lessors won't touch the 777X. It's far, far too little liquidity in that market. Like with the A380 it would be very hard for a lessor to place 777Xs. 787-9s and A350-900s are a much, much safer bet.


SteelChair wrote:
The 777x is TOO BIG. Future prosepcts, while not horrific, are far from great. I think anything less than 800-1,000 will be a huge disappointment for Boeing.

:checkmark: It's too big and far too optimized for ULH routes.

dtw2hyd wrote:
77W had 837 total orders, I think no other large twin will break this record. Using the 2000x 777 classic family order book number is meaningless for this discussion.

IMO the 787-9 will.

dtw2hyd wrote:
Most of the 77W operators are very happy to replace them with 787s or A350s. So 777X is not the first choice for someone looking for a 77W replacement.

:checkmark:
Most recently flown: A318 F-GUGQ A319 F-GRHR A320ceo D-AIZH A320neo D-AINE A330-300 VH-QPD A350-900 B-LRA A380-800 D-AIMH 717 VH-YQW 737-600 LN-RPA 737-700 OY-JTY 737-800 LN-NGA 767-300 ZK-NCI 777-200 ZK-OKA 777-300 ZK-OKN 787-9 ZK-NZK CS100 HB-JBG
 
User avatar
BlueSky1976
Posts: 1798
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2004 9:18 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:20 am

QF is a big question mark, to be honest. Potential A350-1000ULR could kill boeing's hopes for the sale and Airbus already has operational experience with one A350 ULR model from one customer. What's nice about the option is that it can always be reverted back to the regular weight variant - something 777-8 can't do.

But, going back to 777-9: people somehow forgot about ANA - I can see them doing a top-up order for sure, once their 777-300ERs start getting old. Not every one of them will be replaced by the 787-10, and the extra lift and capacity will be useful for sure for this airline. And then, there are mainland China carriers also... As far as the US goes - their purchases won't come until towards the end of model's life. American carriers tend to go after best deals, which always happen either at launch, or at the end of the production run. The ship has already sailed as far as the launch deals go, so only second option remains - meaning that United would probably order 777-9 no earlier than 2025 or so. As far as American goes - it's a 50/50 call between A350-1000 and 777-9, with Airbus being the favorite due to its lower capacity, CASM and weight.

Europe? Air France is a 100% sure bet. They'll be in the market for at least 20 or so 777-9 frames probably sooner than later, since they were first to fly the 777-300ER. Again - not all of their -300ERs will be replaced by the 787-10 or A350-900. I'm not so sure about British Airways - on paper, they may be interested, but then also they already ordered A350-1000 and most likely add more of them. I could see Lufthansa eventually doing a top-off order for more 777-9s when their A380s start getting too old. Maybe a few of -9s could find a place in Swiss fleet, too...

Africa? Probably Ethiopian would be the only one that may be in the market for it...
Tarriffs are taxes. Taxation is theft. You are not entitled to anything.
If it's a Boeing, I'm not going.
 
MileHFL400
Topic Author
Posts: 531
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:27 am

Has anyone thought about top up orders with existing 777-9 customers? I see ANA further up. What about SQ? CX?
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
StTim
Posts: 3122
Joined: Thu Aug 08, 2013 7:39 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:32 am

I suspect that until there are proven figures on the 777X there will be no more orders - indeed some of the launch orders look troubled.

The 777X will cover costs but I really do not see it as a blockbuster frame.
 
Amsterdam
Posts: 321
Joined: Thu Mar 17, 2011 12:52 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:34 am

KL will probably not take A350’s.
I think the A330s will also be gone 10 years from now.

So I do see the NG 777 coming to KL. If AMS stays slot restricted some of the 200ER might get replaced byNG 777.

KL also changed 789 orders in to 7810 orders which will have more seats than their 772’s.

So for more capacity than the 7810 has its the logical choice to get the NG 777.

There are maybe also belly freight considerations.
 
T54A
Posts: 153
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:47 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:01 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
That's one of the weaker attempts at revisionism I've seen in a while, but... sure. :)

I am still 100% correct when I stated the 777 was the first 7000nm range twin. Just because no 777-200ER or 777-300ER actually flew 7000nm does not chnge that fact.

The 747-400 also had a brochure range over 7000nm but no aircraft flew within 500nm of the brochure range. Reserves and headwinds apply to all aircraft.

This was in response to a member saying the 767ER should still be selling if airlines did prefer the smallest type that can fly the distance. The 767 can only fly 5500nm with penalties so a class below the 777. But the fact the old 767's are sticking around so long goes with my theory that airlines prefer the smallest widebody that can fly a route.

Feel free to show me some routes that reach the wikipedia range on any aircraft. I am 99% sure Perth to London is the only route where an aircraft actually travels its wikipedia brochure range.



SAA flew their B744’s on the ATL-JNB for years, and that is over 7300 nm.
T6, Allouette 3, Oryx, King Air, B1900, B727, B744, A319, A342/3/6 A332/3
 
MileHFL400
Topic Author
Posts: 531
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:04 pm

Anyone have an idea who the UFO order for 10 frames is?
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1124
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:26 pm

T54A wrote:
SAA flew their B744’s on the ATL-JNB for years, and that is over 7300 nm.

That had a fuel stop at SID.

According to ITA software the longest nonstop 747-400 flight is in fact LAX-MEL at 7924 statute miles or 6886nm. Flown with a 747-400ER which has a wikipedia range 7,585nm.

Number 2 would be ORD-HKG @ 7778 statute miles or 6760nm.

Both are 500nm below wiki range.
 
T54A
Posts: 153
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:47 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:41 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
T54A wrote:
SAA flew their B744’s on the ATL-JNB for years, and that is over 7300 nm.

That had a fuel stop at SID.

According to ITA software the longest nonstop 747-400 flight is in fact LAX-MEL at 7924 statute miles or 6886nm. Flown with a 747-400ER which has a wikipedia range 7,585nm.

Number 2 would be ORD-HKG @ 7778 statute miles or 6760nm.

Both are 500nm below wiki range.


Fuel stop was only westbound, not eastbound. I know because I operated the flight many times.
T6, Allouette 3, Oryx, King Air, B1900, B727, B744, A319, A342/3/6 A332/3
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1124
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:52 pm

T54A wrote:
Fuel stop was only westbound, not eastbound. I know because I operated the flight many times.

It didn't fly 7000nm with a headwind. Which is what I originally said.

RJMAZ wrote:
The 747-400 also had a brochure range over 7000nm but no aircraft flew within 500nm of the brochure range. Reserves and headwinds apply to all aircraft.
 
StudiodeKadent
Posts: 246
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:43 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 1:07 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
Happy new year a.nutters,

Sorry if this has been discussed..

At the end of last year we had a discussion on what the B787-10’s future prospects are..

Who is considering the B777-9?

1. AF were the first to get the B777-300ER, will they need to order the -9 to replace their initial batch?


It makes more sense for AF to get A350-1000s to replace 777-300ERs, I think. More commonality.

2. KL to replace their last B747-400’s?


A350s and 787s seem to give KLM enough performance.

3. SAA to replace A340-600’s?


This is an interesting possibility in some respects, because SAA needs high-performance aircraft due to JNB's altitude, and the 777X's will probably be better in hot-and-high given the frame was optimized for Emirates. BUT SAA is a financial basket-case and A350s would be easier to fill and have acceptable performance anyway, and A330neos would have acceptable performance as well as be cheaper.

4. Air India?


Do they need the performance? It seems to me they'd be fine with 787s (which they already have) and A350s. Everywhere except South America is more than accessible with a fleet composed of 787s and A350s.

5. PIA? (Also the -8 to replace 200LR’s?


PIA has 200ERs, 200LRs and 300ERs. Seems like the A350 would be the better fit for them (less expensive, lower risk).

6. IAG?


Very likely. They need to replace their 747-400s and BA needs the cabin space. They need something in between the A350-1000 and the A380... and the 777-9 is the most efficient jet in such a market space.

7. Swiss?


Interesting question. They have A330-300s, A340-300s and 777-300ERs. The first two jets are most optimally replaced with a 787-9, and the latter jet most optimally replaced with an A350-1000. The question is how much they want to consolidate their fleet. That said, if they already have widebodies from three different families, reducing that to two different families is going to still represent a big cost saving. That said if they go for all-A350s, maybe introducing premium economy as well so the A350-900 is a better replacement for the A330-300 and A340-300... that could be rather elegant and efficient. And consistent for the passengers.

8. Saudia?


Hot airports + Hajj demand + geopolitical reasons to give lots of money to US companies. Makes sense to me.

Pls feel free to add to the list!


Qantas is considering it. I'm not sure if they'll go for it but its absolutely a strong possibility. I think Air New Zealand will go for the A350 though. When Virgin Australia does its fleet renewal on the widebodies I think they'll go all A350-900.
 
Andy33
Posts: 2249
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2009 9:30 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:29 pm

StudiodeKadent wrote:
6. IAG?


Very likely. They need to replace their 747-400s and BA needs the cabin space. They need something in between the A350-1000 and the A380... and the 777-9 is the most efficient jet in such a market space.

This view seems popular in this thread, but:
By the end of this month BA will have 34 747-400s left. But they already have 18 A350-1000s and 12 787-10s on order for delivery between this year and 2022/3. So if they do decide to use 777-9s as replacements for 747-400s there won't be many of them. And they are committed to the last 747-400 leaving the fleet by February 2024. Time's getting short for 777-9 orders to be placed, production scheduled, planes delivered, and crews and mx staff difference-trained. However they hold plenty of A350 and 787 options, types which by 2023 will be well established fleet members, which allows the luxury of leaving it a little later to convert options and still getting the planes when they need them.
 
StudiodeKadent
Posts: 246
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:43 am

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:50 pm

Andy33 wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:
6. IAG?


Very likely. They need to replace their 747-400s and BA needs the cabin space. They need something in between the A350-1000 and the A380... and the 777-9 is the most efficient jet in such a market space.

This view seems popular in this thread, but:
By the end of this month BA will have 34 747-400s left. But they already have 18 A350-1000s and 12 787-10s on order for delivery between this year and 2022/3. So if they do decide to use 777-9s as replacements for 747-400s there won't be many of them. And they are committed to the last 747-400 leaving the fleet by February 2024. Time's getting short for 777-9 orders to be placed, production scheduled, planes delivered, and crews and mx staff difference-trained. However they hold plenty of A350 and 787 options, types which by 2023 will be well established fleet members, which allows the luxury of leaving it a little later to convert options and still getting the planes when they need them.


Great arguments!

However, BA have slot restrictions to deal with, and neither the A350-1000 nor the 787-10 are big enough to replace a 747-400 on a one-for-one basis. So unless extra A380s are ordered, I'd suspect it will be 777-9s. Or, if Boeing want to be REALLY generous with exceptionally low prices, we MIGHT get a 747-8 order but that would require near-suicidal pricing.
 
gia777
Posts: 93
Joined: Thu Dec 03, 2015 4:12 pm

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

Sun Jan 06, 2019 3:12 pm

Garuda needs big plane a lot for hajj flight
Cheers,

GIA777 :coffee:

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Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos