Exclusive: China's huge Airbus order padded by old or incomplete deals - sources

https://reut.rs/2TS8QQe

Didn't see this posted anywhere. As suspected the order is a mix up old and new deals. The 10 A350 is for previously unannounced Sichuan Airlines, which they have started taking delivery.

juliuswong wrote:

Exclusive: China's huge Airbus order padded by old or incomplete deals - sources

https://reut.rs/2TS8QQe

Didn't see this posted anywhere. As suspected the order is a mix up old and new deals. The 10 A350 is for previously unannounced Sichuan Airlines, which they have started taking delivery.

Intersting. I thought that 10 were CA's follow-up order. CA almost runs out of new WB aircrafts. I wonder when and what will they place for their new wide-bodies.

Airbus Orders up to March 2019

62 Gross Orders
-58 Net Orders (-1 x A220, -22 A320, -4 x A350, -31 x A380)

Uganda Airlines has firmed up an order for 2 A330-800neo.

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... craft.html

Asiaflyer wrote:

Uganda Airlines has firmed up an order for 2 A330-800neo.

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... craft.html

That brings up orders to what, 10? Wonder how they got financing...

juliuswong wrote:

Exclusive: China's huge Airbus order padded by old or incomplete deals - sources

https://reut.rs/2TS8QQe

Didn't see this posted anywhere. As suspected the order is a mix up old and new deals. The 10 A350 is for previously unannounced Sichuan Airlines, which they have started taking delivery.

The Sichuan A350 order was announced as firm by Airbus on 16 July 2018 and has been in the order sheet ever since. And they have not taken delivery of any of those, all three they are operating today are leased from AerCap.

Boeing orders March

BA 18x 777x
Lufthansa 20x 787-9
DHL 2x 777F
Boeing Capital 1x 787-9 (order transfer)
Unidentified 3x BBJ (737ng)


No changes to any MAX orders.

Germany is to order 3 A359 in VIP config. for the governement transport department of the "Bundeswehr", spending approx. 1,2 Billion EUR. The first should be delivered in 2020, the other two by 2022. This is to replace A343's 16+01 and 16+02 currently in charge, which lately suffered minor and major tech. problems resulting in delays. 16+01 "Konrad Adenauer" had to turn around about an hour after take-off from CGN with German cancellor Angela Merkel on board on her way to the G20-summit in South America at the end of Nevember 2018. Merkel had to take sceduled flights and finally arrived more than a day late.

Sources in German:

http://www.austrianaviation.net/detail/ ... rbus-a350/
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inl ... 35282.html

Quick firming up of both the BA and LH orders!

Boeing has just cut
-200 x 737 MAX orders and -10 787 orders.

Jet Airways had 225 x 737 MAX and 10 787 on order (but with some 737 MAX delivered)

This is likely just Jet Airways' orders in their entirety due to ASC606.

Q1 Update (up to MARCH 2019)

Airbus Orders up to March 2019

62 Gross Orders
-58 Net Orders (-1 x A220, -22 A320, -4 x A350, -31 x A380)

Boeing Orders up to March 2019

95 Gross Orders
-119 Net Orders (-171 x B737, 4 x B767, 20 x B777, 28 x B787)

Boeing updated their monthly order totals today together with the Q1 result announcements.

The Jet Airways orders have been cancelled as 2019 ASC 606 Changes. -200 737 and -10 787.

They are now on -119 net total for Q1.


Both Airbus and Boeing now had a negative Q1 in terms of orders, if this happened before it was a very long time ago.

Boeing CEO also announced 364 x 777X on order. (Website currently only showing 344.)

Therefore an unknown order for 20 frames has been booked by someone.

george77300 wrote:

Boeing CEO also announced 364 x 777X on order. (Website currently only showing 344.)

Therefore an unknown order for 20 frames has been booked by someone.

saudia maybe? there were rumors that they were wanting some

Momo1435 wrote:

Both Airbus and Boeing now had a negative Q1 in terms of orders, if this happened before it was a very long time ago.

Wow.. As someone who had to delay entry into the workforce due to the 1991-1993 aerospace downturn, it has been a long time since negative orders were the industry rule.

However, I believe this has to do with:
1. MAX grounding (Boeing will have to incentivise next large order).
2. Lack of A320 NEO slots in near term. The downside of great sales. See below on engines.
3. A220 needs a few reliability PIPs and production rate. (Airbus)
4. E2 has very hesitate buyers. The discount will have to be heavy. (Boeing)
5. A350 backlog limits near term slot availability.
6. A330NEO is not so hot.
7. A480, enough said.
8. Airbus bribery scandal has still impacted sales.
9. RR engine issues. (Effects A330/787 sales and possibly A350).
10. Are the PW1500/1100 fixes durable? The lack of LEAP and PW1100G engines certainly impacted available prime slots.
11. In general, overselling of the market. I believe the second hand market is at or near saturation. Jet airways suddenly freeing up used Airbus and Boeing aircraft cannot help (mostly Boeing).
12. Increasing oil pricing.


What surprises me is I expected more 787 orders. Perhaps customers are waiting on RR fix timeline? GE engine PIPs (CMCs)? Distracted management selling 777x (or Airbus with the A330NEO)?

I also think China's economy isn't growing quickly. African swine flu is going to impact the economy (and thus aircraft orders).

Lightsaber

It's just the 1st quarter of course, especially with the focus on the summer airshow and the end of the year (5th quarter) rush when it comes to orders. Last year the number of gross orders for Airbus in Q1 was lower then this year. Boeing did better last year. But it was not enough at Airbus to compensate the large number of cancellations caused by the A380 termination and the Etihad order clean-up. For Boeing the minus 210 would have also resulted in a negative number if it had happened last year.

The A350 and 787 are still going strong, both with 38 gross new orders in the 1st 3 months. That's pretty much on target considering the production rates.

The sudden lack of A320 and 737 orders are the most noticeable when it comes to new orders. The years of over selling could now be showing together with production issues limiting further production rate increases. For Boeing the backlash of the MAX crashes are not yet fully visible, non of the rumored cancellations have been booked yet. That could still have a large impact later on in the year if those cancellations come through. I do think that there will still be larger MAX orders, the option to order as unidentified by non Chinese customers will be used even more then before. It's this market segment that will be key to see if it's going to be another successful order year for Airbus and Boeing.

Good article on reuters about the Boeing / Jet cancellations.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKCN1S01WA

Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk

What intially seemed like a strong year (at least relative to the trend) for Boeing orders this 2019 reversed and plunged overnight with Jet folding, in addition to the obvious MAX order freeze. With around two-thirds of 2019 remaining, Boeing has enough time to make this year brighter than this - no doubt they’ll be fine in the long run, but for right now, 2019’s looking pretty dim. Same for Airbus.

redcap1962 wrote:

Germany is to order 3 A359 in VIP config. for the governement transport department of the "Bundeswehr", spending approx. 1,2 Billion EUR. The first should be delivered in 2020, the other two by 2022. This is to replace A343's 16+01 and 16+02 currently in charge, which lately suffered minor and major tech. problems resulting in delays. 16+01 "Konrad Adenauer" had to turn around about an hour after take-off from CGN with German cancellor Angela Merkel on board on her way to the G20-summit in South America at the end of Nevember 2018. Merkel had to take sceduled flights and finally arrived more than a day late.

Sources in German:

http://www.austrianaviation.net/detail/ ... rbus-a350/
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inl ... 35282.html

Will these all be new-builds? Wasn't there a rumour that at least one would be an early frame used for testing?

carlokiii wrote:

What intially seemed like a strong year (at least relative to the trend) for Boeing orders this 2019 reversed and plunged overnight with Jet folding, in addition to the obvious MAX order freeze. With around two-thirds of 2019 remaining, Boeing has enough time to make this year brighter than this - no doubt they’ll be fine in the long run, but for right now, 2019’s looking pretty dim. Same for Airbus.

Hopefully Paris will bring about some much needed new orders & positive news for all manufacturers, even if it will almost certainly be a subdued event compared to previous editions.

According to Reuters/TASS, the Russian government has approved Aeroflot to buy 100 jets from Airbus and Boeing. Hopefully we will see some of these to materialize at Paris Air Show.
Currently, Aeroflot has 14 A350 on firm order.

"GORKI, April 24. /TASS/. The Russian government approved acquisition of 100 Boeing and Airbus jets for the flag carrier Aeroflot, Minister of Industry Denis Manturov said on Wednesday.
"The Commission [on import substitution] made a decision regarding the authorization for Aeroflot to buy foreign aircraft. The wide-body long-range Airbus 350 [jets] are meant in the first instance," Manturov said.
The Russian aviation industry is not producing such airplanes, the Minister said. Twenty-two Airbus 350 aircraft will be purchased, he noted. "About 100 airplanes in total," Manturov said, adding that this figure covers Boeing planes also.
Deliveries of Airbus and Boeing airplanes to Aeroflot will take place in 2019-2023, the Minister said. "As far as the timeline for aircraft purchasing is concerned, it will be 2019-2023," Manturov said.
The permit for Aeroflot to buy A350 wide-body long-range jets is called to provide competitiveness for the Russian national air carrier, he added."

Sounds like a pretty decent opportunity for Boeing to turn Aeroflot's moribund 787 order into some good news for the MAX.

It would be hard to envision them Launching NMA at Paris and taking orders without getting the MAX back in the air by then (low likelihood) - however I can see them Showing the concept just to change the narrative for Boeing about being all about MAX - with ATO coming after the MAX gets back in the air, and possible launch before year end if response is good enough. So NMA might help this year - but possibly not until pretty late in the year.

Virgin has converted 15 more 737MAX8 into 737MAX10's, taking their order now to 23 737MAX* and 25 737MAX10. First delivery has been delayed from November 2019 to July 2021, 737MAX10 will be the first to be delivered, first 737MAX10 delivery has been brought forward by 6 months, delivery of 737MAX8's has been pushed back to 2025

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/new ... eliveries/

Airbus booked the following orders in April

Lufthansa Technik (on behalf of German Govt): 3 A350-900
Uganda Airlines: 2 A330-800


Cancellation: 5 A330-200 for Jet Airways

So net 0 orders

https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/ ... eries.html

Someone83 wrote:

Airbus booked the following orders in April

Lufthansa Technik (on behalf of German Govt): 3 A380-900
Uganda Airlines: 2 A330-800


Cancellation: 5 A330-200 for Jet Airways

So net 0 orders

https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/ ... eries.html

Are you sure that isn't 3 A350-900's for the German Government?

morrisond wrote:

Are you sure that isn't 3 A350-900's for the German Government?

Fixed. Just a bad typo :p

Where are the orders?
Pretty slow year so far....

Boeing April totals.

New order:
4x 737 MAX, unidentified

The ACS 606 numbers for the MAX were changed from -200 to -196.

2019 totals:
Gross orders: 99
Net orders: -119

The net order total stayed the same, so the 1st 4 slots of the Jet Airways orders have already been sold. Maybe these were white tails.

And also identified 4x 767 for UPS.

Jet Airways 200 orders were 75 via Boeing Capital and 125 from Jet Airways themselves. I saw a recent photograph of Boeing Field with four stored Jet-liveried 737MAXs. If those four are Boeing Capital units, then Boeing may have been able to place them with another airline which would explain the -200 to -196 change and +4 UFO.

Are the numbers in that page from Boeing's corporate site wrong then?
http://active.boeing.com/commercial/ord ... iew+Report
After March the total sales for 737 MAX was 5012, now it is 5008.

Lewton wrote:

Are the numbers in that page from Boeing's corporate site wrong then?
http://active.boeing.com/commercial/ord ... iew+Report
After March the total sales for 737 MAX was 5012, now it is 5008.

Jet Airways orders are probably still "valid" until such time as the contracts are legally cancelled, so they would remain as firm orders at this time. As Boeing fully expects them to be cancelled at some future point, they are negative values in the ASC 606 Changes. Once they are legally cancelled, they will be removed from the Order Book and the Total Sales for the 737MAX will be adjusted to reflect that.

True, but what is confusing me is the - 4.
So instead of 200 risky orders, Boeing recorded 4 cancellations and 196 risky orders?

Lewton wrote:

True, but what is confusing me is the - 4.
So instead of 200 risky orders, Boeing recorded 4 cancellations and 196 risky orders?

It looks like they fully cancelled 4 of the Boeing Capital Orders (75 -> 71) that's minus 4 on the order book and minus 4 on the risky orders (200 -> 196), you should not add those up. It looks like these were converted to the other customers which placed a new order for 4 737 MAX. But then we are back at zero change for the MAX total. In other words, there must have been another cancellation for 4 MAX, otherwise it would not add up.

Stitch wrote:

Lewton wrote:

Are the numbers in that page from Boeing's corporate site wrong then?
http://active.boeing.com/commercial/ord ... iew+Report
After March the total sales for 737 MAX was 5012, now it is 5008.

Jet Airways orders are probably still "valid" until such time as the contracts are legally cancelled, so they would remain as firm orders at this time. As Boeing fully expects them to be cancelled at some future point, they are negative values in the ASC 606 Changes. Once they are legally cancelled, they will be removed from the Order Book and the Total Sales for the 737MAX will be adjusted to reflect that.

According to Reuters at the end of April, Boeing has cancelled and removed Jet Airways order from their backlog.

https://in.reuters.com/article/boeing-r ... NKCN1S01WI

juliuswong wrote:

Stitch wrote:

Lewton wrote:

Are the numbers in that page from Boeing's corporate site wrong then?
http://active.boeing.com/commercial/ord ... iew+Report
After March the total sales for 737 MAX was 5012, now it is 5008.

Jet Airways orders are probably still "valid" until such time as the contracts are legally cancelled, so they would remain as firm orders at this time. As Boeing fully expects them to be cancelled at some future point, they are negative values in the ASC 606 Changes. Once they are legally cancelled, they will be removed from the Order Book and the Total Sales for the 737MAX will be adjusted to reflect that.

According to Reuters at the end of April, Boeing has cancelled and removed Jet Airways order from their backlog.

https://in.reuters.com/article/boeing-r ... NKCN1S01WI

They were not removed completely removed from the orderbook, the cancellations are only listed as 2019 ASC 606 Changes on the monthly update page.

The orders are still listed in the actual order book. You can see it best in the 787 list were the 10 for Jet are still there.

http://active.boeing.com/commercial/ord ... iew+Report


Reuters also knows that this is the case, but we already have a hard time understanding how it eaxactly works, so don't expect anyone who doesn't follow the orders to know how Boeing actually list it on their webpage. So they just explain it in a way in which the readers know what's happened with the order, knowing very well that they will not look into Boeings order book.

Boeing does use the ASC 606 Changes right here as the orders are very likely never to be delivered to Jet Airways. But they can't cancel them outright since Jet Airways isn't pronounced dead yet and the airline has cancelled the orders. The ASC 606 accounting standard make Boeing do this, they can't keep orders on their order book for which is clear that they will never be delivered.

Leehamnews had an article about this last year:
https://leehamnews.com/2018/11/06/accou ... le-credit/

juliuswong wrote:

According to Reuters at the end of April, Boeing has cancelled and removed Jet Airways order from their backlog.

That is correct. They moved them to the ASC 606 category and that is (indirectly reflected) in the article text noting "Under recent changes in accounting rules, Boeing hives off orders that no longer meet its criteria for recognising revenue into a separate category, while defending contractual claims."

So once all the formal legal paperwork is addressed, the orders will be removed from both the ASC 606 category and the Orders and Deliveries totals. But until then, the orders are still legally firm and Boeing is required to continue to show them. ASC 606 just makes it clear (to investors) that Boeing does not expect those orders to be delivered.

Momo1435 wrote:

It looks like they fully cancelled 4 of the Boeing Capital Orders (75 -> 71) that's minus 4 on the order book and minus 4 on the risky orders (200 -> 196), you should not add those up. It looks like these were converted to the other customers which placed a new order for 4 737 MAX. But then we are back at zero change for the MAX total. In other words, there must have been another cancellation for 4 MAX, otherwise it would not add up.

Yes, I agree there needs to have been another cancellation of 4 MAXs for the numbers to remain consistent. The current end of April 737 summary totals are:

Gross: 36
Changes: -11
Net: 25
ASC606: -196
2019 Net: -171

Does anyone have a snapshot of or remember what the 737 "Gross Orders" and "Contractual Changes" line items were at the end of March ? The current numbers would be consistent if the 737 summary numbers at the end of March were as shown below

Gross: 32
Changes: -3
Net: 29
ASC606: -200
2019 Net: -171

Azerbaijan Airlines has cancelled 10 737MAX8 aircraft

http://newsinflight.com/2019/06/03/azer ... -1billion/

AZAL and the MAX has always been a weird one. They operate Embraer, Airbus and Boeing widebody incl 757’s. Why did they need a new type when they have the 11x A320 series anyway? I suspect they’ll convert the MAX to 787’s to replace 757/767’s. Just my guess.

Looks like a very slow year, we'll see what Paris will bring.

It's not that slow, the low numbers are from a couple of large corrections that needed to happen at some point in time anyway. If you look at the gross orders it is not that much slower then the previous years for the 1st couple of months. I would even say that we have seen strong widebody sales with a couple of large orders.

After the Airshow season it might become a different story, especially for Boeing with the MAX situation. We will see, if this year is slow next year might be much better again.

qf789 wrote:

Azerbaijan Airlines has cancelled 10 737MAX8 aircraft

http://newsinflight.com/2019/06/03/azer ... -1billion/

Not cancelled but postponed.
https://www.reuters.com/article/boeing- ... SL8N23A42V

Just 1 order in May for Airbus, but at least looks like they did not had any cancellations.

https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/ ... eries.html

Lewton wrote:

Just 1 order in May for Airbus, but at least looks like they did not had any cancellations.

https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/ ... eries.html

Stocking up for Paris I bet.

Looks like 10x 359s cancelled, don’t know who.

Geoff1947 wrote:

Looks like 10x 359s cancelled, don’t know who.

looking at the order wiki, these airlines placed orders of 10 a359s:

afriqiyah

airasia x

Kuwait airways

Sichuan airlines

yeminia

there was a leasing company that ordered 10 for Avianca, idk if those were taken off the books yet

Geoff1947 wrote:

Looks like 10x 359s cancelled, don’t know who.

Where does it look like that?

Lewton wrote:

Geoff1947 wrote:

Looks like 10x 359s cancelled, don’t know who.

Where does it look like that?

Yes, as far as I can tell cancellations are the same as it was in April. 125 total, 40 for A359.

There were no cancellations last month.

Total cancellations didn't change last month, it stayed at 125. The A350 accounts for 42 cancellations, which was the Etihad order reduction. If there were any other changes it must have been an transfer from one to another customer without Airbus booking a cancellation.

This is the reason why I save these O&Ds files every month.