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qf789
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Bloomberg: Airbus falls short of 800 delivery target in 2018

Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:53 am

Bloomberg is reporting that Airbus has fallen short of its planned 800 delivery target for 2018. According to the article 790 aircraft were delivered making it 10 aircraft short of its delivery target

Airbus SE narrowly missed its reduced target for aircraft deliveries last year even after the company’s factories operated until the last minutes of Dec. 31 to complete remaining jetliners, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Handovers topped 790 but failed to reach the goal of about 800, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential figures.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ery-target
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par13del
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Re: Bloomberg: Airbus falls short of 800 delivery target in 2018

Fri Jan 04, 2019 10:59 am

Fifth quarter is not over yet, I am sure 10 a/c can and will be delivered before the end of the quarter.
 
bigjku
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Re: Bloomberg: Airbus falls short of 800 delivery target in 2018

Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:04 am

par13del wrote:
Fifth quarter is not over yet, I am sure 10 a/c can and will be delivered before the end of the quarter.


The issue is doing that puts Airbus in a hole for the next year and the cycle repeats. As an investor I am far less concerned with them being 10 short than the uneven nature of their cycle each year. Airbus tends to burn cash in first half of year and then finally get to cash generation in 4th quarter. From the outside I suspect it can’t be as efficient as it could be for deliveries to surge and trickle like that. It also limits cash return capabilities through the year. Finally I worry that if they ever piss off their workforce trying to be more efficient they will strike in November/December which has for a few years been so backloaded it would be a disaster.
 
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Re: Bloomberg: Airbus falls short of 800 delivery target in 2018

Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:13 am

par13del wrote:
Fifth quarter is not over yet, I am sure 10 a/c can and will be delivered before the end of the quarter.


Can we just stop this nonsense? It was never true and now Boeing does the same monthly reporting. I thought we'd grown up a bit, but maybe not.

bigjku wrote:
The issue is doing that puts Airbus in a hole for the next year and the cycle repeats.


Exactly. It's funny how they somehow manage to squeeze in more than a year's worth of sales & production every single year. Except they don't. :sarcastic:
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Bricktop
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Re: Bloomberg: Airbus falls short of 800 delivery target in 2018

Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:20 am

Given the headwinds they faced this year, that's a pretty good performance. A trivial miss is unimportant compared to getting production issues taken care of.
 
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N14AZ
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Re: Bloomberg: Airbus falls short of 800 delivery target in 2018

Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:02 pm

Bricktop wrote:
Given the headwinds they faced this year, that's a pretty good performance. A trivial miss is unimportant compared to getting production issues taken care of.

790 vs 800 planned airframes doesn’t sound too bad for me, especially if you consider all the challenges they were facing throughout the years.
 
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Re: Bloomberg: Airbus falls short of 800 delivery target in 2018

Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:13 pm

How many of those deliverys were the A220? They were not part of the count when airbus first projected 800 deliverys but are counted in the 790. The "real" miss is more than 10.
 
musman9853
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Re: Bloomberg: Airbus falls short of 800 delivery target in 2018

Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:08 pm

Tn55337 wrote:
How many of those deliverys were the A220? They were not part of the count when airbus first projected 800 deliverys but are counted in the 790. The "real" miss is more than 10.



IIRC like 25 this year? So AB actually made 765 planes this year.
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dodoma
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Re: Bloomberg: Airbus falls short of 800 delivery target in 2018

Fri Jan 04, 2019 1:15 pm

Tn55337 wrote:
How many of those deliverys were the A220? They were not part of the count when airbus first projected 800 deliverys but are counted in the 790. The "real" miss is more than 10.


From the 2018 delivery thread it seems that there were 33 A220 contractually delivered last year. So there are only 757 "Airbus" planes that were delivered... But it's old news really, Airbus stated a while back that they were to include those numbers so no big surprise.
 
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Re: Bloomberg: Airbus falls short of 800 delivery target in 2018

Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:03 pm

Rolling average, projected a year or two to the future would tell us a whole lot more. And I suspect it would show Airbus maybe a little short of its goals of a couple years ago. Not significant. Also breakdown by models, perhaps also rolling average would be real information.
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Re: Bloomberg: Airbus falls short of 800 delivery target in 2018

Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:31 pm

dodoma wrote:
Tn55337 wrote:
How many of those deliverys were the A220? They were not part of the count when airbus first projected 800 deliverys but are counted in the 790. The "real" miss is more than 10.


From the 2018 delivery thread it seems that there were 33 A220 contractually delivered last year. So there are only 757 "Airbus" planes that were delivered... But it's old news really, Airbus stated a while back that they were to include those numbers so no big surprise.



that's still a 5% miss on deliveries from the goal. fairly significant
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zeke
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Re: Bloomberg: Airbus falls short of 800 delivery target in 2018

Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:43 pm

How many aircraft do they have sitting on the ground that have been produced however the airline is in financial hardship and not able to take delivery ?
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Re: Bloomberg: Airbus falls short of 800 delivery target in 2018

Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:06 pm

musman9853 wrote:
dodoma wrote:
Tn55337 wrote:
How many of those deliverys were the A220? They were not part of the count when airbus first projected 800 deliverys but are counted in the 790. The "real" miss is more than 10.


From the 2018 delivery thread it seems that there were 33 A220 contractually delivered last year. So there are only 757 "Airbus" planes that were delivered... But it's old news really, Airbus stated a while back that they were to include those numbers so no big surprise.



that's still a 5% miss on deliveries from the goal. fairly significant


Agreed. What most people on this forum tend to forget is that the financial markets/sophisticated investors are not fooled by the PR. They know exactly what is happening. We can debate whether the A220 "should" be included, but the investment firms have read the underlying data.
 
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Re: Bloomberg: Airbus falls short of 800 delivery target in 2018

Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:09 pm

The "delayed" HNA Group deliveries, mostly widebodies, plus the late certification and reluctance of customers to take A330-900 gliders must go a long way to explaining any shortfall. Also not all of the A220 deliveries should be counted, only those from mid year when Airbus gained 50%+ of the programme. So all in all, not a bad effort and undoubtedly the best ever Airbus delivery total
 
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LX015
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Re: Bloomberg: Airbus falls short of 800 delivery target in 2018

Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:10 pm

zeke wrote:
How many aircraft do they have sitting on the ground that have been produced however the airline is in financial hardship and not able to take delivery ?


Good question.
 
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neutrino
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Re: Bloomberg: Airbus falls short of 800 delivery target in 2018

Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:40 pm

LX015 wrote:
Good question.

.....for another time? :roll:
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Re: Bloomberg: Airbus falls short of 800 delivery target in 2018

Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:43 pm

musman9853 wrote:
that's still a 5% miss on deliveries from the goal. fairly significant

Some times goals get set with the unspoken understanding that they are ambitious.

I'm not sure how operative the goal is: do executives miss bonus because they didn't get to 800?

Given how much extra work Airbus had to do this year due to the engine issues I think being off by 5% is a very good job.

Yet I'm not a fan of including the production numbers for a third party, even if you have majority ownership and control, and it is a common practice.

Bottom line is producing 757 or 790 or 800 airliners in this class is an impressive accomplishment.
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Re: Bloomberg: Airbus falls short of 800 delivery target in 2018

Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:52 pm

They even missed their rigged target. A 5% miss in deliveries is a tough pill to swallow.
 
MalevTU134
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Re: Bloomberg: Airbus falls short of 800 delivery target in 2018

Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:57 pm

So, as Airbus must be on the verge of bankruptcy, will they be taken over by COMAC, Sukhoi, Ilyushin or QR (and allowed to deliver to their mini-OW alliance airlines only)? That last option would get them renamed to AAB, Akbar AirBus
 
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Re: Bloomberg: Airbus falls short of 800 delivery target in 2018

Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:05 pm

neutrino wrote:
.....for another time? :roll:


It is a good question now, as you can see it is assumed above that missing 800 deliveries means they had production issues that prevented the target being reached when it seems they built more than 800 aircraft, just not all of them were delivered to airlines for various reasons.

If they have produced more than 800 frames it would follow these “white tails” could boost this years delivery total whilst at the same production level.
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