I recently flew SJU-MIA on an AA 763 and I wonder once AA retires their 763s, what widebodies, if any, will AA use on the route. I thought about the 787, but one of the FAs thought it was more likely AA would use one the A330s instead. What does anyone here think?

The 787 is used at AA on its longest routes across the Atlantic and Pacific in order to decrease the fuel burn where it matters. The 763 is the cheapest oldest AA wide-body and burns a little more than the 787 but less than the A330. The A330 burns 10% less fuel than a 777. I'd say its going to stay a 763 until its retired then a A330 if AA has to move cargo from MIA to SJU (A330 can accommodate LD3 containers side by side like a 787/777).

[photoid][/photoid]AA is using their 788s on their ORD-CUN route daily and 2x 788s on the weekend for the winter season. It's not hard to imagine AA placing a 787 or a A330 on MIA-SJU routes during winter season when there would be more slack in the schedule and demand is higher as people from cold weather states look to escape the cold. Perhaps during the summer months when demand isn't as high they may utilize their A321s as those wide bodies would then be needed to support a robust international schedule.

As a seasonable shipper of various very perishable commodities to SJU, we certainly hope that AA maintains some widebody connectivity at both MIA and PHL for perishable cargo to SJU.
The key is connectivity, as LD-3 of numerous perishable items originate from a number of areas. As long as there is a widebody daily from at least LAX to MIA, and better yet an A-330 from SFO and LAX to PHL to connect to a B787,or A330 of either type down to SJU we are quite happy. The only icing on the cake would be a widebody from SEA to MIA in the summer months for that connectivity.

Ah the Golden era of the A300 when non-reving on SJU-MIA was too easy, that was the true wide-body of that era without a doubt.
It is refreshing to see that at least a 763 is being used from time to time.

My bet is no more WB's on MIA-SJU after 763's are retired.

From a pax load standpoint there are better Caribbean routes to send either an A330 or a B788, already mentioned ORD-CUN is a good example. Winter traffic is a factor out of the likes of ORD or JFK but not out of MIA.

Cargo would be the driver for MIA-SJU to retain WB service

A333s are being retired.

As MIA is a 772 base, could SJU see 772s?

Maybe it will see A321NEOs, but I have a feeling the MAX virus may spread to San Juan.

Once the 767 is fully retired at AA, I can see the occasional rotation of a 772 from MIA in between long hauls but overall, the A321/738/78M will become the mainstay of what's left of AA's operation at SJU and specifically, on the MIA-SJU route. A330s will more likely be flying from PHL and CLT than MIA.

They run wide bodies for the cargo volume.

jayunited wrote:

[photoid][/photoid]AA is using their 788s on their ORD-CUN route daily and 2x 788s on the weekend for the winter season. It's not hard to imagine AA placing a 787 or a A330 on MIA-SJU routes during winter season when there would be more slack in the schedule and demand is higher as people from cold weather states look to escape the cold. Perhaps during the summer months when demand isn't as high they may utilize their A321s as those wide bodies would then be needed to support a robust international schedule.

AA is using 787s on ORD-CUN because thanks to canceling PEK and PVG, they have nothing to do with about 4-5 788s in the winter. It is not the optimal plane for such a route.

Cointrin330 wrote:

Once the 767 is fully retired at AA, I can see the occasional rotation of a 772 from MIA in between long hauls but overall, the A321/738/78M will become the mainstay of what's left of AA's operation at SJU and specifically, on the MIA-SJU route. A330s will more likely be flying from PHL and CLT than MIA.

PHL still sends A330s I believe, but it’s primarily for cargo. I don’t think CLT-SJU has seen the A330 in years, except maybe a couple one-offs. Most of that is funneled through Miami now, the five daily flights on a mix of widebodies and narrowbodies are a thing of the past at CLT.

How much cargo can a containerized A321 theoretically carry? I think we'll see at least 1 or 2 widebodies on the mainland-SJU runs for the foreseeable future. The only other option is to hire a freighter to take the cargo for you but I assume it would still be cheaper to run your own metal. If the 797 comes to life this may be a role for it.

Janj wrote:

Cointrin330 wrote:

Once the 767 is fully retired at AA, I can see the occasional rotation of a 772 from MIA in between long hauls but overall, the A321/738/78M will become the mainstay of what's left of AA's operation at SJU and specifically, on the MIA-SJU route. A330s will more likely be flying from PHL and CLT than MIA.

PHL still sends A330s I believe, but it’s primarily for cargo. I don’t think CLT-SJU has seen the A330 in years, except maybe a couple one-offs. Most of that is funneled through Miami now, the five daily flights on a mix of widebodies and narrowbodies are a thing of the past at CLT.

PHL actually has the 767 on it right now for the foreseeable schedule.

Boof02671 wrote:

A333s are being retired.

They are holding off on that as they need WB capacity.

2020

redwingspilot wrote:

Janj wrote:

Cointrin330 wrote:

Once the 767 is fully retired at AA, I can see the occasional rotation of a 772 from MIA in between long hauls but overall, the A321/738/78M will become the mainstay of what's left of AA's operation at SJU and specifically, on the MIA-SJU route. A330s will more likely be flying from PHL and CLT than MIA.

PHL still sends A330s I believe, but it’s primarily for cargo. I don’t think CLT-SJU has seen the A330 in years, except maybe a couple one-offs. Most of that is funneled through Miami now, the five daily flights on a mix of widebodies and narrowbodies are a thing of the past at CLT.

PHL actually has the 767 on it right now for the foreseeable schedule.

What is left of the 767 fleet is based in MIA and PHL to isolate the aircraft and minimize operational disruptions across the network. The last 2 767's flying out of JFK to Europe (CDG and MAD) are being replaced with the 777-200ER this Spring. A lot of 767 flying out of PHL to Europe will eventually (but very slowly) transition to the 787. This is happening starting in November 2019 with ZRH going to the 787. The 767's do not have a great dispatch reliability and the product is becoming uncompetitive. AA has minimal competition from PHL to Europe (with just LH and BA, whom they partner with) so they can put the 767 on routes from there comfortably.

INFINITI329 wrote:

How much cargo can a containerized A321 theoretically carry? I think we'll see at least 1 or 2 widebodies on the mainland-SJU runs for the foreseeable future. The only other option is to hire a freighter to take the cargo for you...

AA could simply run less cargo to SJU. See, wasn't that easy! If cargo rates don't cover the costs (direct and opportunity) then AA won't run 'new' widebody aircraft to SJU.

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Boof02671 wrote:

They run wide bodies for the cargo volume.

And its all pharma traffic.

MIflyer12 wrote:

INFINITI329 wrote:

How much cargo can a containerized A321 theoretically carry? I think we'll see at least 1 or 2 widebodies on the mainland-SJU runs for the foreseeable future. The only other option is to hire a freighter to take the cargo for you...

AA could simply run less cargo to SJU. See, wasn't that easy! If cargo rates don't cover the costs (direct and opportunity) then AA won't run 'new' widebody aircraft to SJU.

Which equals lost revenue...and handing over that revenue to your competitors isnt really good for your books

RichardWelling wrote:

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Boof02671 wrote:

They run wide bodies for the cargo volume.

And its all pharma traffic.

It’s more than that.

US ran a 332/333 PHL-SJU for years, and according to what I’ve read on a.net, it printed money. My bet is that AA will restore such service, and launch & rotate the aircraft through MIA as well.

INFINITI329 wrote:

How much cargo can a containerized A321 theoretically carry? I think we'll see at least 1 or 2 widebodies on the mainland-SJU runs for the foreseeable future. The only other option is to hire a freighter to take the cargo for you but I assume it would still be cheaper to run your own metal. If the 797 comes to life this may be a role for it.

797 will most likely have less cargo capacity than typical widebodies and closer to narrowbody in term of cargo capacity, unless Boeing designed to make the aircraft suit Asian operators better

Boof02671 wrote:

RichardWelling wrote:

[*]

Boof02671 wrote:

They run wide bodies for the cargo volume.

And its all pharma traffic.

It’s more than that.

Yes it is...how do you think highly perishable foods /herbs/ fruits/berries get to Puerto Rico? yes some by vessel, but a lot arrives by air. When you are trying to rebuild your tourism industry after an event like Hurricane Maria, you have to pull out the stops to entice vacationers to choose Puerto Rico over other Caribbean options.

Trust me, the Food Service / Perishable wholesalers on the island have made their needs known. ( as have the retailers) Hopefully AA will maintain at least 1 WB from MIA and 1 from PHL for the foreseeable future.

I am talking about SJU-MIA, that lane is all pharma. For the MIA-SJU sector its various commodities.

Boof02671 wrote:

RichardWelling wrote:

[*]

Boof02671 wrote:

They run wide bodies for the cargo volume.

And its all pharma traffic.

It’s more than that.

Actually it isn't.
UA was running multiple 739ERs on our EWR-SJU-EWR route untill we secure a huge lucrative cargo pharma contract which required a widebody. For a while UA was utilizing a domestic 772 nowdays its a 764 and a 739ER (and the widebody service continued despite the devastating effects hurricane Maria had on the island on on tourism) The only reason the 764 is on EWR-SJU-EWR routes is do to our pharma contracts, UA has stated as much on Flying Together. The pharmaceuticals business in Puerto Rico is going strong these companies have a space block agreement with UA. It is such a lucrative business that UA if it comes down to it and a 764 is down for maintenance UA will delay an evening flight to Europe several hours just so they can run the 764 on a round trip EWR-SJU-EWR instead of canceling and the reason for this is because of the cargo. A cancellation would cost UA hundreds of thousands of dollar just in the cargo alone because of the space block agreement and the fact that that cargo has to be at its intended destination within a certain amount of time if not it no longer viable. If the 764 cancels this flight is so important we hear about it immediately here at Willis Tower that is how high on the priority list this flight is. So if UA's cargo contract pays enough for UA to upguage EWR-SJU to a widebody and its important enough for UA to delay an afternoon European flight to cover EWR-SJU-EWR, I have no doubt that AA if they have pharma contracts are making a killing as well.

I believe AA moves a lot of cargo on the PHL-SJU segment, back when the 333 (LUS days) operated on the route the belly was always jam packed. The flight had it’s share relaiability issues at times which would trickle on to the European departure bank. I recall the flight always having drama and very colorful passengers.

RichardWelling wrote:

I am talking about SJU-MIA, that lane is all pharma. For the MIA-SJU sector its various commodities.

Prior to the hurricane damage, there was also a decent amount of floral products on the SJU-MIA leg (connecting all over the place in small shipments). I haven't seen much since then but that doesn't rule it out.