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Revelation
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Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:05 pm

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... og-454896/ tells us that Airbus removed 10 A380 orders from its backlog, reducing the number of orders on the books to 321.

Airbus had assigned 10 A380s to an unidentified customer in March 2014.

These aircraft had previously been linked to Hong Kong Airlines, which firmed a deal for 10 A380s in December 2011. In March 2014 the airframer stopped listing them against the carrier’s backlog.

At end of year the backlog was 87, 53 of which are for EK.

The 34 not for EK include many not likely to be delivered: 20 for Amedeo, 8 for Qantas, 3 for Air Accord.

Image

Other than EK, that just leaves the 3 for ANA, which are already in production, so soon we'll be at the point where the only remaining customer is EK.

Of that 53 in the EK backlog, 20 are part of the new order that still does not have an engine agreement signed and the airframe order is subject to signing the engine order.

Things will be touch and go till Airbus get other customers to order and/or they can get a NEO program launched.
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Taxi645
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 2:10 pm

I wouldn't count on many if any orders outside EK. I do remember EK also having another 16 as option?
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FatCat
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:14 pm

Googling "Air Accord" gave me an answer, but googling "Amedeo" or "Amedeo Air" doesn't help.
Is this some sort of leasing company?
Sorry for the stupid question
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musman9853
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:18 pm

FatCat wrote:
Googling "Air Accord" gave me an answer, but googling "Amedeo" or "Amedeo Air" doesn't help.
Is this some sort of leasing company?
Sorry for the stupid question



yep, leasing corp.
 
musman9853
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:19 pm

i think this is the end for the a380. my hunch is the new management is gonna announce that they're gonna close the line after the 30 firm ek orders. i dont think ek's order last year will ever actually happen.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:20 pm

Every time I hear Amedeo and the 20 A380 order that has been on the books for years I laugh.
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Amedeo......really? :spin: :rotfl:
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cityshuttle
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:25 pm

This cancelled order of 10 x A 380 is supposed to be from Hong Kong Airlines / HX.
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:26 pm

Pride aside - pride being the only thing keeping this whale afloat - how long can Airbus financially sustain such a loss leader?
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:27 pm

Revelation wrote:
The 34 not for EK include many not likely to be delivered: 20 for Amedeo, 8 for Qantas, 3 for Air Accord.


Who are Air Accord?

The eight for Qantas are definitely not going to happen, so I wonder why they're not cancelling them. Perhaps they are going to swap the deposits onto the Project Sunrise aircraft, if the Airbus A350 becomes the choice over the Boeing 777.

It amazes me that the Amadeo order is still there. Though, with the comments from British Airways that they would not buy them new, perhaps they would lease extra aircraft from Amadeo. Possibly why they've kept it?

Either way, I agree - it's virtually guaranteed none of these will ever fly.
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:34 pm

It does not look good for the future of the A380; EK seems to be the only airline interested in it. And since used ones are now appearing on the market, with two finding a new operator and two being scrapped, that does not bode well, either. It will not be long before used EK frames will start appearing, and I would think any new airline wanting to try it would latch onto those rather than buy a new one at this point. The problem that the A380 has is that previously the biggest plane offered the best CASM, but with the 787, A350, and 779 available that is no longer the case.
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trav777
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:41 pm

lol a NEO...are we STILL talking about dumping billions into a program that ALREADY cost billions and failed?

Look, the 35K isn't selling either and neither is the 77x; there is ZERO demand for the 380. I would not be surprised if every single one of these orders is cancelled and the program is shut down. It's a resounding failure and nothing can change that.

Stop talking about CASM; it's irrelevant. CASM is relevant to FULL planes. We have already seen US airlines shed nearly every non-NB frame they can on even transcon routes despite better casm from a widebody. I used to love flying 767s and DC10s from EWR-SFO bc of all the empty seats. That's not profit. Profit is a full 737/320.

the market has spoken- listen to it.
 
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:47 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The 34 not for EK include many not likely to be delivered: 20 for Amedeo, 8 for Qantas, 3 for Air Accord.


Who are Air Accord?

The eight for Qantas are definitely not going to happen, so I wonder why they're not cancelling them. Perhaps they are going to swap the deposits onto the Project Sunrise aircraft, if the Airbus A350 becomes the choice over the Boeing 777.

It amazes me that the Amadeo order is still there. Though, with the comments from British Airways that they would not buy them new, perhaps they would lease extra aircraft from Amadeo. Possibly why they've kept it?

Either way, I agree - it's virtually guaranteed none of these will ever fly.

Air Accord is a company which was especially set up to take over the A380 order after Transaero collapsed. It's basically just this order and nothing else, it's based in I believe the Bahamas or a similar tax haven.
 
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:48 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Pride aside - pride being the only thing keeping this whale afloat - how long can Airbus financially sustain such a loss leader?


The project itself is a failure as Airbus is never going to recoup the amount of money they invested in the program, but from a day to day perspective, it's probably not losing all that much money as long as they're building airframes.

Of course, the opportunity cost is very high, but that's more difficult to quantify.
 
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:50 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Pride aside - pride being the only thing keeping this whale afloat - how long can Airbus financially sustain such a loss leader?


Thing is, as time goes on airports get closer and closer to LHR style constraints and there likely will be a day that the a380 would be able to fill the role of what it was originally intended for- serving extremely slot constrained airports. But it doesn't seem like that time is coming soon enough to rescue the a380. Also I don't get why BA shows no intention to order more. It's most useful to them and they just aren't taking it.

It would also be useful for cross-straits flights between China and Taiwan, which I believe are restricted by the number of flights rather than seats. So once again, I'm surprised eva and China airlines never showed any interest in them as a replacement and upgrade for their 747-400s. (cross straits prices are insane for the relatively short distances travelled)

I wonder how much improvement in efficiency & price it would take to convince the airlines they make sense for to take them? Both CI and BA are still flying 747-400s so there's still a role for 4 engine VLAs.
Last edited by Jouhou on Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:51 pm

cityshuttle wrote:
This cancelled order of 10 x A 380 is supposed to be from Hong Kong Airlines / HX.

It used the HX order until 2012, since then it was an unidentified order. The HNA group might have kept it on the books all this time until now.
 
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:52 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The 34 not for EK include many not likely to be delivered: 20 for Amedeo, 8 for Qantas, 3 for Air Accord.


Who are Air Accord?

The eight for Qantas are definitely not going to happen, so I wonder why they're not cancelling them. Perhaps they are going to swap the deposits onto the Project Sunrise aircraft, if the Airbus A350 becomes the choice over the Boeing 777.

It amazes me that the Amadeo order is still there. Though, with the comments from British Airways that they would not buy them new, perhaps they would lease extra aircraft from Amadeo. Possibly why they've kept it?

Either way, I agree - it's virtually guaranteed none of these will ever fly.

Sadly, I have to agree too. I wonder if EK will firm their engineless order? We move on.

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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:52 pm

Now Airbus only needs to cancel the 31 other doubtful ones and end this disaster. Set a date when production will end and move on.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 4:56 pm

Quotes from an article about Qantas and the A380:
Qantas was “continually pushing those aircraft (deliveries) out, so our intention is that we’re not taking those aircraft . . . We have 12 aircraft and the 12 aircraft we have are fantastic aircraft and actually serve the missions we have… We believe there’s a network for 12: it’s very good and it works very well. We struggle with a network for the next eight, so that’s why we keep pushing them back,” he said.


“You can fly two Boeing 787s between Sydney and Los Angeles with the same fuel consumption as the A380. Qantas has tried to justify its fuel consumption by saying its aircraft can allow more passengers on board. But the jet fuel price hovers above $80 to $90, so it just becomes uneconomic and unsustainable.”


http://australianaviation.com.au/2018/1 ... at-qantas/


A 2nd article containing this quote:

Only 12 have been delivered, with VH-OQL Phyllis Arnott the last to join the fleet December 2011.

While those eight remaining A380s are still listed as “on order”, the thinking at Qantas’s Mascot headquarters for some time has been that they will not be taken.

Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce said in December 2016 said the A380 fleet would remain at 12.

“The 12 current aircraft we’re happy with and the eight that we have on order from Airbus we don’t see a need for them and we will keep pushing them out,” Joyce said at the time.


http://australianaviation.com.au/2018/0 ... -delivery/

So what does Airbus do, force them to take 8 A380's. At 6 per year the line will run out in 5 to 6 years if the 20 added for EK doesn't get an engine contract. Take out Amadeo and the backlog looks shaky. Does EK want 6 per year for 5 years, I recall they prefer just 4 per year so. How efficient is the 380 line at 6 per year?
 
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:13 pm

seahawk wrote:
Now Airbus only needs to cancel the 31 other doubtful ones and end this disaster. Set a date when production will end and move on.


I don't understand manufacturing financials all that well but it's hard to see them announcing a definitive end to the program when they can likely hold out another 5-6 years for EK and hope that in that time a new business case materializes where a NEO in some form becomes viable. I say hold out as long as you're producing backlog and something may click to transform the base product into something altogether new and vastly more efficient in CASM and/or cargo capacity. Even if it's despised by the numbers department it would be a shame for a plane so revered by crew and passengers to be shut down so early.
 
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:14 pm

The writing's on the wall for that beast. And it's a good thing.

Boeing 747 is next, thankfully - whether you like it, or not.
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Breathe
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:15 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The 34 not for EK include many not likely to be delivered: 20 for Amedeo, 8 for Qantas, 3 for Air Accord.


Who are Air Accord?

The eight for Qantas are definitely not going to happen, so I wonder why they're not cancelling them. Perhaps they are going to swap the deposits onto the Project Sunrise aircraft, if the Airbus A350 becomes the choice over the Boeing 777.

It amazes me that the Amadeo order is still there. Though, with the comments from British Airways that they would not buy them new, perhaps they would lease extra aircraft from Amadeo. Possibly why they've kept it?

Either way, I agree - it's virtually guaranteed none of these will ever fly.


Air Accord is a vehicle setup that took over the remnants of the Transero A380 order.

Qantas Group as a whole is a big Airbus customer, so it wouldn't be surprised if these 8 remaining orders are eventually "converted" into orders for other Airbus aircraft and giving both companies amicable way of cancelling the order.

As for Amadeo... I'd imagine they'd just cancel or do a conversion of orders to other fleet types. They already own quite a number of Airbus aircraft: https://www.amedeo.aero/portfolio/#asse ... management

Given the lack of orders, I don't think Airbus are too much in a hurry to "tidy up" their order book for the A380. After all having 331 ordered planes certainly looks a lot better than 290 with Emirates as the only customer (after ANA receive their 3 this year).
 
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:17 pm

BlueSky1976 wrote:
The writing's on the wall for that beast. And it's a good thing.

Boeing 747 is next, thankfully - whether you like it, or not.

The 747 may still have a little bit of life yet for a few more freighter orders.
 
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:20 pm

trav777 wrote:
Stop talking about CASM; it's irrelevant. CASM is relevant to FULL planes.

If that would be the case (for long haul) no one would need anything larger than a 788.

Your CASM theory is just as solid as the 20 Amedeo orders.
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bigjku
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:23 pm

Breathe wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The 34 not for EK include many not likely to be delivered: 20 for Amedeo, 8 for Qantas, 3 for Air Accord.


Who are Air Accord?

The eight for Qantas are definitely not going to happen, so I wonder why they're not cancelling them. Perhaps they are going to swap the deposits onto the Project Sunrise aircraft, if the Airbus A350 becomes the choice over the Boeing 777.

It amazes me that the Amadeo order is still there. Though, with the comments from British Airways that they would not buy them new, perhaps they would lease extra aircraft from Amadeo. Possibly why they've kept it?

Either way, I agree - it's virtually guaranteed none of these will ever fly.


Air Accord is a vehicle setup that took over the remnants of the Transero A380 order.

Qantas Group as a whole is a big Airbus customer, so it wouldn't be surprised if these 8 remaining orders are eventually "converted" into orders for other Airbus aircraft and giving both companies amicable way of cancelling the order.

As for Amadeo... I'd imagine they'd just cancel or do a conversion of orders to other fleet types. They already own quite a number of Airbus aircraft: https://www.amedeo.aero/portfolio/#asse ... management

Given the lack of orders, I don't think Airbus are too much in a hurry to "tidy up" their order book for the A380. After all having 331 ordered planes certainly looks a lot better than 290 with Emirates as the only customer (after ANA receive their 3 this year).


Airbus may not have much choice. It has to comply with IFRS15 rule changes that are stricter when it comes to what can be counted as an order as well as how to disclose the value of the backlog. It delayed this in April and said it would do so by its 2018 year end disclosures.
 
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:23 pm

Is this the first "Airbus and the A380" are doomed thread of 2019 or did I miss the first one?
 
Breathe
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:25 pm

wingman wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Now Airbus only needs to cancel the 31 other doubtful ones and end this disaster. Set a date when production will end and move on.


I don't understand manufacturing financials all that well but it's hard to see them announcing a definitive end to the program when they can likely hold out another 5-6 years for EK and hope that in that time a new business case materializes where a NEO in some form becomes viable. I say hold out as long as you're producing backlog and something may click to transform the base product into something altogether new and vastly more efficient in CASM and/or cargo capacity. Even if it's despised by the numbers department it would be a shame for a plane so revered by crew and passengers to be shut down so early.

Airbus would love to hold out until the end of the next decade to see where the market is then. If air traffic continues to increase and their is a lack of space at airports, who knows maybe a A380neo might be viable, if not they can shut down the program in an orderly manner without too much of a shock to the companies financials. Nobody can predict where the aviation market will be 10 years from now.

If the A380 can limp on until then without hurting Airbus' financials, then they don't have much to lose.
 
TC957
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:30 pm

Perhaps QF could do what SQ has done and roll over the early-build 380's for new ones, after all, they should have performance improvements built into them after all these years. OQA especially is known to be a heavier frame after it's major repair work done.
 
trav777
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:38 pm

PW100 wrote:
trav777 wrote:
Stop talking about CASM; it's irrelevant. CASM is relevant to FULL planes.

If that would be the case (for long haul) no one would need anything larger than a 788.

Your CASM theory is just as solid as the 20 Amedeo orders.


You do understand that a CASM metric averages operating cost across available seats, right?

Unfilled seats hurt CASM...by mathematical definition. Seats without butts earn $0.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:38 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
Every time I hear Amedeo and the 20 A380 order that has been on the books for years I laugh.
:
Amedeo......really? :spin: :rotfl:


No the funniest was noting that Virgin Atlantic canceled there order. They were a launch customer, we already knew years ago they would never take them. But Airbus left them on the books?
 
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:49 pm

TC957 wrote:
Perhaps QF could do what SQ has done and roll over the early-build 380's for new ones, after all, they should have performance improvements built into them after all these years. OQA especially is known to be a heavier frame after it's major repair work done.

I also thought that would be a possible scenario but it seems that it will not happen since they just started to refurb all twelve A380s:

A decade after the Qantas Airbus A380 took to the skies, the airline’s 12-strong superjumbo fleet will soon head into the hanger for a mid-life makeover.
The first red-tailed A380 will get its revamp in March 2019, with the tip-to-tail upgrade being overseen by Airbus.
It’s expected to take until the end of 2020 for all twelve A380s to be refurbished. Here’s what you’ll see in Qantas’ spruced-up superjumbos.

Source: https://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-will-up ... -to-expect
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:54 pm

TC957 wrote:
OQA especially is known to be a heavier frame after it's major repair work done.


The repair added 94kg to the aircraft. It's less than what airlines consider as the weight of one passenger, so it's virtually not even worth mentioning.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
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American 767
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 5:56 pm

Without Emirates, the A380 would have been a failure. Airbus would have pulled the plug a long time ago already.
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hOMSaR
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:14 pm

N14AZ wrote:
TC957 wrote:
Perhaps QF could do what SQ has done and roll over the early-build 380's for new ones, after all, they should have performance improvements built into them after all these years. OQA especially is known to be a heavier frame after it's major repair work done.

I also thought that would be a possible scenario but it seems that it will not happen since they just started to refurb all twelve A380s:


Does QF own or lease their A380s?

SQ's planes were on 12-year leases, so it was relatively simple for them to replace old with new. If QF owns the planes, or has a lease with less favorable terms for replacing old with new, it wouldn't make sense.

It takes a lot of efficiency improvements to pay for a $150-200 million (even after discounts) new airplane.
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ClassicLover
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:18 pm

hOMSaR wrote:
Does QF own or lease their A380s?

SQ's planes were on 12-year leases, so it was relatively simple for them to replace old with new. If QF owns the planes, or has a lease with less favorable terms for replacing old with new, it wouldn't make sense.

It takes a lot of efficiency improvements to pay for a $150-200 million (even after discounts) new airplane.


As far as I am aware, Qantas own the aircraft - I don't believe they are leased.

I believe Australian law with regards to aircraft depreciation is why Qantas tends to keep aircraft for 20 years.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
ltbewr
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:26 pm

There are other factors that may affect the near and long-term future of the A380 including another major world-wide recession, interest rates going up, higher build costs (including from Brexit), the overhead costs to maintain the dedicated A380 assembly line at Airbus and fuel costs likely to go up by the early 2020's.
 
SurlyBonds
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:32 pm

American 767 wrote:
Without Emirates, the A380 would have been a failure. Airbus would have pulled the plug a long time ago already.


I don't think this is clear. In a world without Emirates, the European carriers would likely still be flying the Kangaroo Route to Australia and New Zealand en masse. The Kangaroo Route is, due to the travel time involved, probably one of the less frequency-sensitive long-haul routes out there. So absent Emirates, I think the European carriers would have ordered a lot more A380s.
 
Vladex
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:40 pm

RalXWB wrote:
Is this the first "Airbus and the A380" are doomed thread of 2019 or did I miss the first one?


This may be the first "747 lives on" thread of the new year.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:44 pm

Jouhou wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Pride aside - pride being the only thing keeping this whale afloat - how long can Airbus financially sustain such a loss leader?


Thing is, as time goes on airports get closer and closer to LHR style constraints and there likely will be a day that the a380 would be able to fill the role of what it was originally intended for- serving extremely slot constrained airports. But it doesn't seem like that time is coming soon enough to rescue the a380. Also I don't get why BA shows no intention to order more. It's most useful to them and they just aren't taking it.

It would also be useful for cross-straits flights between China and Taiwan, which I believe are restricted by the number of flights rather than seats. So once again, I'm surprised eva and China airlines never showed any interest in them as a replacement and upgrade for their 747-400s. (cross straits prices are insane for the relatively short distances travelled)

I wonder how much improvement in efficiency & price it would take to convince the airlines they make sense for to take them? Both CI and BA are still flying 747-400s so there's still a role for 4 engine VLAs.


For 747-400 replacement the 777-9 has the same capacity and as both already fly 777 frames same type ratings. Lower training cost & gets ride of an entire types custom parts. Overall a better choice.
 
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:51 pm

trav777 wrote:
You do understand that a CASM metric averages operating cost across available seats, right?

Unfilled seats hurt CASM...by mathematical definition.


Sorry, you're going to have to explain that one. The calculation of CASM is independent of whether a seat is occupied or not.
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:53 pm

trav777 wrote:
PW100 wrote:
trav777 wrote:
Stop talking about CASM; it's irrelevant. CASM is relevant to FULL planes.

If that would be the case (for long haul) no one would need anything larger than a 788.

Your CASM theory is just as solid as the 20 Amedeo orders.


You do understand that a CASM metric averages operating cost across available seats, right?

Unfilled seats hurt CASM...by mathematical definition. Seats without butts earn $0.


CASM is defined as Cost per available seat mile. It doesn't matter if the seat is filled or not. Narrowbodies have lower CASM that widebodies, that is the reason US carriers have switched to narrowbodies in transcon.
 
cschleic
Posts: 1580
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2002 10:47 pm

Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 6:57 pm

trav777 wrote:
PW100 wrote:
trav777 wrote:
Stop talking about CASM; it's irrelevant. CASM is relevant to FULL planes.

If that would be the case (for long haul) no one would need anything larger than a 788.

Your CASM theory is just as solid as the 20 Amedeo orders.


You do understand that a CASM metric averages operating cost across available seats, right?

Unfilled seats hurt CASM...by mathematical definition. Seats without butts earn $0.


Wouldn't unfilled seats help CASM, since the plane would be lighter and burn less fuel, cost per flight would be less? The issue is revenue vs. cost per seat mile.
 
rbavfan
Posts: 2785
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:53 am

Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:08 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Quotes from an article about Qantas and the A380:
Qantas was “continually pushing those aircraft (deliveries) out, so our intention is that we’re not taking those aircraft . . . We have 12 aircraft and the 12 aircraft we have are fantastic aircraft and actually serve the missions we have… We believe there’s a network for 12: it’s very good and it works very well. We struggle with a network for the next eight, so that’s why we keep pushing them back,” he said.


“You can fly two Boeing 787s between Sydney and Los Angeles with the same fuel consumption as the A380. Qantas has tried to justify its fuel consumption by saying its aircraft can allow more passengers on board. But the jet fuel price hovers above $80 to $90, so it just becomes uneconomic and unsustainable.”


http://australianaviation.com.au/2018/1 ... at-qantas/


A 2nd article containing this quote:

Only 12 have been delivered, with VH-OQL Phyllis Arnott the last to join the fleet December 2011.

While those eight remaining A380s are still listed as “on order”, the thinking at Qantas’s Mascot headquarters for some time has been that they will not be taken.

Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce said in December 2016 said the A380 fleet would remain at 12.

“The 12 current aircraft we’re happy with and the eight that we have on order from Airbus we don’t see a need for them and we will keep pushing them out,” Joyce said at the time.


http://australianaviation.com.au/2018/0 ... -delivery/

So what does Airbus do, force them to take 8 A380's. At 6 per year the line will run out in 5 to 6 years if the 20 added for EK doesn't get an engine contract. Take out Amadeo and the backlog looks shaky. Does EK want 6 per year for 5 years, I recall they prefer just 4 per year so. How efficient is the 380 line at 6 per year?


However those 2 787-9's only have a total of 472 seats, vs 484 and no Fist Class on the 787. However even with double pilot cost & possibly some crew difference the mantainance cost for the 787 will be cheaper so it should still save money. Only problem with 2 flights would be changes to bilateral to allow for added flights.
 
trav777
Posts: 126
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:09 pm

going slowly-

CASM is a metric that is functionally irrelevant

it's cost across seats. If seats do not have butts, then this number is immaterial to the actual profitability of a frame. For brevity I didn't say this last time, mea culpa.

Trip revenue versus trip costs are what matter. Want a lower CASM, just add more seats presto you have a better plane. This was the A380 theory and has been repeated ad nauseum here. If you cannot sell the seats what difference does it make.

Us carriers switched to narrowbodies because of profitability in terms of selling seats, as they could have beaten the CASM with a high density widebody but they could not sell the seats.

Additionally, I looked at Oliver Wyman's fleet and frame analysis of US carriers (you can find it on the net) where they broke down CASM for NBs for pretty much every US carrier and compared it to AirwaysMag analysis of CASM for various WBs- it's not lower. Many of the NB CASMs are significantly higher even than for a 77W
Last edited by trav777 on Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Posts: 1403
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:12 pm

rbavfan wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Pride aside - pride being the only thing keeping this whale afloat - how long can Airbus financially sustain such a loss leader?


Thing is, as time goes on airports get closer and closer to LHR style constraints and there likely will be a day that the a380 would be able to fill the role of what it was originally intended for- serving extremely slot constrained airports. But it doesn't seem like that time is coming soon enough to rescue the a380. Also I don't get why BA shows no intention to order more. It's most useful to them and they just aren't taking it.

It would also be useful for cross-straits flights between China and Taiwan, which I believe are restricted by the number of flights rather than seats. So once again, I'm surprised eva and China airlines never showed any interest in them as a replacement and upgrade for their 747-400s. (cross straits prices are insane for the relatively short distances travelled)

I wonder how much improvement in efficiency & price it would take to convince the airlines they make sense for to take them? Both CI and BA are still flying 747-400s so there's still a role for 4 engine VLAs.


For 747-400 replacement the 777-9 has the same capacity and as both already fly 777 frames same type ratings. Lower training cost & gets ride of an entire types custom parts. Overall a better choice.


In the examples I used, a capacity larger than the 747-400 would be beneficial. There aren't a lot of situations where the a380 makes sense, it's just that it's strange in the few cases where it does make sense no one's buying in despite there being something in existence to fill their niche.
 
ScottB
Posts: 6307
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:20 pm

wingman wrote:
I don't understand manufacturing financials all that well but it's hard to see them announcing a definitive end to the program when they can likely hold out another 5-6 years for EK and hope that in that time a new business case materializes where a NEO in some form becomes viable. I say hold out as long as you're producing backlog and something may click to transform the base product into something altogether new and vastly more efficient in CASM and/or cargo capacity.


Arguably a backlog of five to six years doesn't give a lot of time to make a decision about a hypothetical A380neo project given that development would likely take three or four years. It'd be hard to fill a potential production gap since the product doesn't sell well as things stand and the existing model becomes impaired once the new one is announced. Besides that, it doesn't look like the necessary engines will go into production for a neo to reach market in six years; those are probably going to be tied to reengine projects for the 787 and/or A350. I cannot see RR making the business case for the Ultrafan solely for the A380neo.

JayinKitsap wrote:
Does EK want 6 per year for 5 years, I recall they prefer just 4 per year so. How efficient is the 380 line at 6 per year?


I think EK is stuck taking six per year if they want the line to stay open, unless another customer can be found. They took eight in 2018, but it seems like they strung the deliveries out as late as possible; four of those eight were delivered in the last month-and-a-half of 2018 and three of the deliveries earlier in the year (excluding the frame originally meant for BC) took nearly a year-and-a-half from first flight to delivery (about a half-year is more typical for the program). They're very vocal about wanting the program to continue but seem more reluctant when it comes time to taking delivery. Then again, the boosterism for the A380 might be about securing good financial terms for loans or leases..

Jouhou wrote:
Also I don't get why BA shows no intention to order more. It's most useful to them and they just aren't taking it.


As the largest slotholder at LHR, BA's need for the A380 is far less acute than one might think. It's helpful in high-volume long-haul markets where frequency is relatively unimportant due to constraints on economically viable schedule choices or limited competition, but there are fewer of these markets than one might think. In NYC-LHR, schedule matters so it's logical to use smaller aircraft; moreover, they're probably better-off spilling some lower-yielding traffic in peak season due to constrained capacity rather than flying half-empty A380s in the winter.

rbavfan wrote:
No the funniest was noting that Virgin Atlantic canceled there order. They were a launch customer, we already knew years ago they would never take them. But Airbus left them on the books?


I think that VS order stuck around for so long simply because there was little reason for the customer to cancel (little to no firm financial commitment) and it made the vendor's order book look stronger.

bigjku wrote:
Airbus may not have much choice. It has to comply with IFRS15 rule changes that are stricter when it comes to what can be counted as an order as well as how to disclose the value of the backlog. It delayed this in April and said it would do so by its 2018 year end disclosures.


That seems like a huge step forward for financial transparency. Both of the large vendors are guilty of booking some very dubious "orders" which ultimately fell apart.
Last edited by ScottB on Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
Finn350
Posts: 1343
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Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:33 pm

trav777 wrote:
going slowly-

CASM is a metric that is functionally irrelevant

it's cost across seats. If seats do not have butts, then this number is immaterial to the actual profitability of a frame. For brevity I didn't say this last time, mea culpa.

Trip revenue versus trip costs are what matter. Want a lower CASM, just add more seats presto you have a better plane. This was the A380 theory and has been repeated ad nauseum here. If you cannot sell the seats what difference does it make.

Us carriers switched to narrowbodies because of profitability in terms of selling seats, as they could have beaten the CASM with a high density widebody but they could not sell the seats.


AA has around 11 daily A321 narrowbody flights on their JFK-LAX route. Are you really saying they were not able to sell the same route with fewer widebody flights and that is the reason they switched to narrowbodies?
 
musman9853
Posts: 345
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:30 pm

Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:34 pm

BlueSky1976 wrote:
The writing's on the wall for that beast. And it's a good thing.

Boeing 747 is next, thankfully - whether you like it, or not.



a year ago, i'd agree with you. but they booked 3 years of production last year, and theres no indications, that they wont get at least 6 this year too
 
garf25
Posts: 24
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:26 pm

Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:41 pm

What's the seat cost for an A380 on a short haul 2 hour return (2x2 hour) versus the a320. Based on max seating configuration and flight crew doing the return sector rather than getting off and hotac.

If travel companies such as TUI or Thomas Cook could fill these machines, which would make more money?

Not interested in business models etc, I know those companies wouldn't order. Just which is cheaper.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 1871
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:06 pm

Jouhou wrote:
It would also be useful for cross-straits flights between China and Taiwan, which I believe are restricted by the number of flights rather than seats. So once again, I'm surprised eva and China airlines never showed any interest in them as a replacement and upgrade for their 747-400s. (cross straits prices are insane for the relatively short distances travelled)


B/c it's cheaper to fly those 744 that are paid off, and CI can just use them to milk everything out of them, versus getting a bunch of new planes that's going to cost tons of money? There's a reason why CI "abuse" those 744s on short cross-strait flights instead of flying them long-haul, and capacity is not really it (Their 77W has just 17 seats less than their 744s, as their 744s are more premium heavy).

ElroyJetson wrote:
Every time I hear Amedeo and the 20 A380 order that has been on the books for years I laugh.
:
Amedeo......really? :spin: :rotfl:


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news ... ody-wants/

Come on...we all know they're going to start a great airline, carry tons of people everywhere with their A380s, and dominate the European aviation market. :white:
 
smartplane
Posts: 405
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Ten A380 Orders Removed From Backlog

Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:15 pm

musman9853 wrote:
i think this is the end for the a380. my hunch is the new management is gonna announce that they're gonna close the line after the 30 firm ek orders. i dont think ek's order last year will ever actually happen.

New senior management may like to pull the plug, but..... By now they've read the fine print and contingent liabilities.

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