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Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:56 am
by Taxi645
Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?


Probably the thing that is costing Airbus the most money right now is narrowbody engine availability and reliability. Lack of sufficient supply of reliable engines is a constrained on combined A220/A320 ramp up.

Introducing an ultrafan for the A220-A320-200 thrust class has several advantages:

- Helps lift engine constraints for Airbus.
- Gives Airbus another SFC boost to the A320 when Boeing probably has it's hands full on NMA.
- Provides RR with a extra and steady revenue stream.
- Excluding the A321 thrust class allows it's core to be better optimized for the A220. The A321 can then group together with the LR and XLR (and possibly A322) with a larger core.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:49 am
by AA737-823
No. And here's why:

1. RR has their hands full trying to iron out problems with the engines they already have.
2. A new program takes AGES to bring to market; by that time, GE/LEAP and PW will have their respective acts together, and the opportunity will have passed.
3. What's the market for this? The need is already being met (even if the options are currently a complete disaster).
4. Airbus has already JUST FINISHED a re-engine of the A320. That's a monumentally expensive process, and they won't be keen to dump the brand new LEAP or GTF option for another new program which will, inevitably, have its own EIS problems.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:22 am
by LDRA
Better to reactivate IAE partnership to help PW fix GTF. Airbus should drive this if PW still can't get GTF fixed

PW either has cultural issues or their product development process is broken.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:41 am
by madpropsyo
Rolls Royce needs to sort out its obligations as they currently stand before they attempt to tackle any projects. With the complete lack of adequate quality control they've had on project after project frankly they're lucky they're still in business as is.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:52 am
by eamondzhang
madpropsyo wrote:
With the complete lack of adequate quality control they've had on project after project frankly they're lucky they're still in business as is.

Jesus it only took three threads. Why not bash GE when GE90 was hell, CFM for the Leap disaster and PW for the whole lots of issue with GTF? Unless you provide with proof what you said is complete nonsense.

Michael

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:56 am
by madpropsyo
eamondzhang wrote:
madpropsyo wrote:
With the complete lack of adequate quality control they've had on project after project frankly they're lucky they're still in business as is.

Jesus it only took three threads. Why not bash GE when GE90 was hell, CFM for the Leap disaster and PW for the whole lots of issue with GTF? Unless you provide with proof what you said is complete nonsense.

Michael



Here's one entitled "Rolls-Royce engine woes stretch company to the limit" Will that suffice?

https://www.ft.com/content/90847700-e41 ... 2428919cee

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:33 pm
by Taxi645
AA737-823 wrote:
No. And here's why:
1. RR has their hands full trying to iron out problems with the engines they already have.


We would be talking post 2025 EIS....


2. A new program takes AGES to bring to market; by that time, GE/LEAP and PW will have their respective acts together, and the opportunity will have passed.


There is always opportunity if there is enough improvement potential.


3. What's the market for this? The need is already being met (even if the options are currently a complete disaster).


A 50+ planes a month market?!?




4. Airbus has already JUST FINISHED a re-engine of the A320. That's a monumentally expensive process, and they won't be keen to dump the brand new LEAP or GTF option for another new program which will, inevitably, have its own EIS problems.


First flight was 2014..... By 2025 that's more than a decade! That's a normal period for a new engine.

Apart from the SFC improvement from tech level the smaller core would be lighter and provide higher bypass ratio on the A220. This would also help reduce range reduction for a 500 simple strech.

Apart from the above it would provide engine choise on the A220 and make room for the PW GTF the focus on the more capable part of the A320 series (A321XLR etc).

A significant SFC boost coinciding with an updated wing(box) for the A320 could put Boeing into trouble when they're having their hands full with NMA.

I would agree though that a partnership would be more likely than RR going at it alone.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:56 pm
by keesje
It would probably be an uphill fight against PW. It seems 35-50k lbs would seem a better space. Probably they are working on this already. Cooperation in an alliance with companies like GE, PW, Safran, Honeywell, MTU would improve feasibility / access to additional technology and financing. PW/MTU would maybe be the best.

Image

That fan blade pitch for reverse gives me headaches when imagining the airstreams.. what would feed air to the core engine? How about compressor stall...

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:57 pm
by cc2314
Only one thing springs to mind with rr and aviation right now.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:02 pm
by lightsaber
madpropsyo wrote:
Rolls Royce needs to sort out its obligations as they currently stand before they attempt to tackle any projects. With the complete lack of adequate quality control they've had on project after project frankly they're lucky they're still in business as is.

RR will be kicked out of the business if they do not get onto new platforms. It is a balance.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:47 pm
by fsabo
keesje wrote:
It would probably be an uphill fight against PW. It seems 35-50k lbs would seem a better space. Probably they are working on this already. Cooperation in an alliance with companies like GE, PW, Safran, Honeywell, MTU would improve feasibility / access to additional technology and financing. PW/MTU would maybe be the best.

Image

That fan blade pitch for reverse gives me headaches when imagining the airstreams.. what would feed air to the core engine? How about compressor stall...


As I see it when the fan tips are in negative pitch for reverse thrust, the inner part of the fan will still be in positive pitch and pushing air towards the compressor. Am I missing something?

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:51 pm
by JayinKitsap
RR has the 330 and 350 sole sourced and is on the 787, they need to be 1 of 2 engines on the 797, but all of their issues makes getting a new program running right is difficult. Meanwhile PW has roared back with its GTF, lots of problems but now producing 50+ engines a month. Once that smooths out it will be hard to get back in the market with both Leap and the GTF having the market. The V2500 production is ramping down.

The problems with the Trents on the 787 has shifted new orders toward GE, they started with over 50% but recent engine orders are going 2/3 with GE, in particular with airlines that do not have RR already on the 787

So it needs to get on new platforms that are successful.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:03 am
by Taxi645
So with A220 orders materializing exponentially and the plane possibly on it's way to becoming mass produced like the MAX and the A320 (although not quite in those numbers), I think the question has become even more relevant:

Will PW be able to provide sufficient engines if Airbus takes production numbers beyond 14/months longer term or is second engine manufacturer needed?

And think Airbus will need to go beyond 14 even with current order development, let alone when an A220-500 is launched. With the MAX troubles this year and the longer term prospect of an A220-500 aiding in production relieve for the A320 (as in substituting A320 orders to free more slots for A321 variants).

It's a unique opportunity for RR to get back into the narrow body game (which is a very solid market to be in). For Airbus they get the engine production capacity they need and another SFC boost with ultrafan generation technology.



Sorry for reopening the thread by it's recently become more relevant with increasing orders for the A220 and I don't see the logic of restarting a new thread on the exact same topic.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:14 am
by ikolkyo
Far too soon for the A220 and RR. RR should start the Ultrafan on a wide-body (like they plan on) and slowly work the ultrafan onto whatever comes after the A320neo and MAX.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:25 am
by Taxi645
ikolkyo wrote:
Far too soon for the A220 and RR. RR should start the Ultrafan on a wide-body (like they plan on) and slowly work the ultrafan onto whatever comes after the A320neo and MAX.


We don't know when replacements for the A320neo and/or MAX will be launched (and if they are one for one replacements in the same thrust class). However if engine production capacity does indeed become a sales bottleneck for Airbus on the A220, an additional engine in the A220 thrust class could be far more urgent requirement to address.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:33 am
by ikolkyo
Taxi645 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Far too soon for the A220 and RR. RR should start the Ultrafan on a wide-body (like they plan on) and slowly work the ultrafan onto whatever comes after the A320neo and MAX.


We don't know when replacements for the A320neo and/or MAX will be launched (and if they are one for one replacements in the same thrust class). However if engine production capacity does indeed become a sales bottleneck for Airbus on the A220, an additional engine in the A220 thrust class could be far more urgent requirement to address.


The A220 is nowhere near having an issue with engine production. Right now the bottleneck is Airbus/BBD. They can’t keep a consistent production rate for the aircraft currently and it likely won’t be solved until the Mobile plant is up and running. I highly doubt engine production will become an issue, many aircraft have survived with a single engine provider at high rates (737 says hello). Plus it seems PW is getting a grip on things with the GTF and as production of the A220 improves so will the GTF.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:51 am
by Taxi645
ikolkyo wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Far too soon for the A220 and RR. RR should start the Ultrafan on a wide-body (like they plan on) and slowly work the ultrafan onto whatever comes after the A320neo and MAX.


We don't know when replacements for the A320neo and/or MAX will be launched (and if they are one for one replacements in the same thrust class). However if engine production capacity does indeed become a sales bottleneck for Airbus on the A220, an additional engine in the A220 thrust class could be far more urgent requirement to address.


The A220 is nowhere near having an issue with engine production. Right now the bottleneck is Airbus/BBD. They can’t keep a consistent production rate for the aircraft currently and it likely won’t be solved until the Mobile plant is up and running. I highly doubt engine production will become an issue, many aircraft have survived with a single engine provider at high rates (737 says hello). Plus it seems PW is getting a grip on things with the GTF and as production of the A220 improves so will the GTF.



I'm not talking about next year or the year after. I'm talking about ~ 2025-2028. Sure they starting to get a grip on things at current production rates, however if A220 sales potential proves to be a different order of magnitude (i.e. 25+/months), will PW then still be able to keep up?

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:53 am
by Waterbomber2
fsabo wrote:
keesje wrote:
It would probably be an uphill fight against PW. It seems 35-50k lbs would seem a better space. Probably they are working on this already. Cooperation in an alliance with companies like GE, PW, Safran, Honeywell, MTU would improve feasibility / access to additional technology and financing. PW/MTU would maybe be the best.

Image

That fan blade pitch for reverse gives me headaches when imagining the airstreams.. what would feed air to the core engine? How about compressor stall...


As I see it when the fan tips are in negative pitch for reverse thrust, the inner part of the fan will still be in positive pitch and pushing air towards the compressor. Am I missing something?


I think that you are both missing the fact that when reverse thrust is first applied, the aircraft would still be travelling at over 120kts airspeed.
A fan basically accelerates the air, and a "negative pitch" just means that the fan is going to try to accelerate RAM air in the reverse direction, but the resulting vector is just the air exiting the fan from behind at a lower speed than when it enters.

At low speeds, or in strong crosswinds this could mean that the air could indeed reach negative speeds and actually reverse direction and be pushed out the front, but this can be prevented through automation and procedures.

Turboprops have been applying the principle for decades without issues, fans can apply it too.

But I thought that RR was going to ditch the whole pitch concept?

The Ultrafan is not a game changer, it is just an attempt to pack as many known technologies into one package and hope that it sticks.

In the discussed thrust range, PW and CFM are already offering xompetitive proposals that will be difficult for RR to match. RR would love the narrowbody market share, unfortunately they missed too many boats.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:55 am
by Armadillo1
they must do it, but the question is what engines will be at 2030. what about unducted fun.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:56 am
by Scotron12
madpropsyo wrote:
Rolls Royce needs to sort out its obligations as they currently stand before they attempt to tackle any projects. With the complete lack of adequate quality control they've had on project after project frankly they're lucky they're still in business as is.


Tell that to LH which selected RR Trents for their recent 787-9 order.

AFAIK Rolls has stated that all issues with theT-1000 will be resolved 1Q 2020.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:58 am
by ikolkyo
Taxi645 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:

We don't know when replacements for the A320neo and/or MAX will be launched (and if they are one for one replacements in the same thrust class). However if engine production capacity does indeed become a sales bottleneck for Airbus on the A220, an additional engine in the A220 thrust class could be far more urgent requirement to address.


The A220 is nowhere near having an issue with engine production. Right now the bottleneck is Airbus/BBD. They can’t keep a consistent production rate for the aircraft currently and it likely won’t be solved until the Mobile plant is up and running. I highly doubt engine production will become an issue, many aircraft have survived with a single engine provider at high rates (737 says hello). Plus it seems PW is getting a grip on things with the GTF and as production of the A220 improves so will the GTF.



I'm not talking about next year or the year after. I'm talking about ~ 2025-2028. Sure they starting to get a grip on things at current production rates, however if A220 sales potential proves to be a different order of magnitude (i.e. 25+/months), will PW then still be able to keep up?


Like a said, countless aircraft have been produced at high rates over the years with a sole engine OEM and PW has been in the business since radial engines. By 2025-2028 the GTF will be a matured product and I believe they’ll be ready. RR shouldn’t be targeting an aircraft that could command an extremely high production rate with a new engine. They would be setting themselves up for potential disaster if we look at recent engines. Their approach with the Ultrafan and Advance is the correct one.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:03 am
by ikolkyo
Scotron12 wrote:
madpropsyo wrote:
Rolls Royce needs to sort out its obligations as they currently stand before they attempt to tackle any projects. With the complete lack of adequate quality control they've had on project after project frankly they're lucky they're still in business as is.


Tell that to LH which selected RR Trents for their recent 787-9 order.

AFAIK Rolls has stated that all issues with theT-1000 will be resolved 1Q 2020.


You got a source? I haven’t heard of an engine selection from them.

edit: Scratch that I found it.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:30 am
by Amiga500
Waterbomber2 wrote:
But I thought that RR was going to ditch the whole pitch concept?

The Ultrafan is not a game changer, it is just an attempt to pack as many known technologies into one package and hope that it sticks.


If they ditch the VP fan, then yeah, its more like mature technologies rather than novel.

But a variable pitch fan changes all that. No turbofan that I know of has variable pitch on the fan.

I dislike the term "game changer", but a VP fan would be a significant step (if not quite paradigm shift).

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 10:18 am
by Taxi645
ikolkyo wrote:
Like a said, countless aircraft have been produced at high rates over the years with a sole engine OEM and PW has been in the business since radial engines. By 2025-2028 the GTF will be a matured product and I believe they’ll be ready. RR shouldn’t be targeting an aircraft that could command an extremely high production rate with a new engine. They would be setting themselves up for potential disaster if we look at recent engines. Their approach with the Ultrafan and Advance is the correct one.


They don't need to cover that whole thrust market. 40-60% would be fine. Also they don't have to go at it alone.



Waterbomber2 wrote:
In the discussed thrust range, PW and CFM are already offering xompetitive proposals that will be difficult for RR to match. RR would love the narrowbody market share, unfortunately they missed too many boats.


That can't be there eternal position. At a certain opportune moment they would want back in. It's in both Airbus and RR's commercial and strategic interest to have RR back into the NB market.

I reckon the A220 thust market, with a further technology edge and possibly with a parner could be such an opportune moment.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 11:43 am
by lightsaber
keesje wrote:
It would probably be an uphill fight against PW. It seems 35-50k lbs would seem a better space. Probably they are working on this already. Cooperation in an alliance with companies like GE, PW, Safran, Honeywell, MTU would improve feasibility / access to additional technology and financing. PW/MTU would maybe be the best.

Image

That fan blade pitch for reverse gives me headaches when imagining the airstreams.. what would feed air to the core engine? How about compressor stall...

797 is the better option. Pratt has an exclusive on the A220 for a while. There won't be a shortage of engines in 18 months.

At this time the ultrafan is just another name for GTF. By ultrafan EIS, Pratt will have CMCs.

On the A320, the contracts specifically prohibit a 3rd engine for some period of time, probably 15 years. CFM and Pratt are ironing out issues. We're starting to talk PiP time...

To the OP, a saturated marked is a bad return on investment +ROI). RR needs money.

I personally hope for IAE on the 797.

Lightsaber

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 12:34 pm
by cledaybuck
The time to get on these planes was when they were launched, not now. RR had their chance then and has to wait now for whatever is next.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 7:20 am
by Taxi645
cledaybuck wrote:
The time to get on these planes was when they were launched, not now. RR had their chance then and has to wait now for whatever is next.


Around 2025-2028 we would be talking A220 gen2. That may be the next opportunity.

lightsaber wrote:
keesje wrote:
It would probably be an uphill fight against PW. It seems 35-50k lbs would seem a better space. Probably they are working on this already. Cooperation in an alliance with companies like GE, PW, Safran, Honeywell, MTU would improve feasibility / access to additional technology and financing. PW/MTU would maybe be the best.

Image

That fan blade pitch for reverse gives me headaches when imagining the airstreams.. what would feed air to the core engine? How about compressor stall...

797 is the better option. Pratt has an exclusive on the A220 for a while. There won't be a shortage of engines in 18 months.

At this time the ultrafan is just another name for GTF. By ultrafan EIS, Pratt will have CMCs.

On the A320, the contracts specifically prohibit a 3rd engine for some period of time, probably 15 years. CFM and Pratt are ironing out issues. We're starting to talk PiP time...

To the OP, a saturated marked is a bad return on investment +ROI). RR needs money.

I personally hope for IAE on the 797.


Are you confident Pratt can keep up if Airbus decides to go to around 30 a month longer term? A rumoured additional A321 line in Toulouse would already putt more strain on them.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:53 am
by Scotron12
cledaybuck wrote:
The time to get on these planes was when they were launched, not now. RR had their chance then and has to wait now for whatever is next.


RR declined to offer their Ultrafan on the 797 because they did not want to be rushed for a 2025 timeframe.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:56 am
by Waterbomber2
lightsaber wrote:
keesje wrote:
It would probably be an uphill fight against PW. It seems 35-50k lbs would seem a better space. Probably they are working on this already. Cooperation in an alliance with companies like GE, PW, Safran, Honeywell, MTU would improve feasibility / access to additional technology and financing. PW/MTU would maybe be the best.

Image

That fan blade pitch for reverse gives me headaches when imagining the airstreams.. what would feed air to the core engine? How about compressor stall...

797 is the better option. Pratt has an exclusive on the A220 for a while. There won't be a shortage of engines in 18 months.

At this time the ultrafan is just another name for GTF. By ultrafan EIS, Pratt will have CMCs.

On the A320, the contracts specifically prohibit a 3rd engine for some period of time, probably 15 years. CFM and Pratt are ironing out issues. We're starting to talk PiP time...

To the OP, a saturated marked is a bad return on investment +ROI). RR needs money.

I personally hope for IAE on the 797.

Lightsaber


If the B797 is the NSA, then I agree.

In terms of MOM, RR have already said that they can't/won't compete for that market.
At this point, the MOM has little chance of seeing the light long before 2030 and even if it does by then, it'll probably be a GE exclusive.

If you look at the Trent family's three-shaft design, it is pretty much an aerodynamic GTF, with the HP and IP spools making sure that the LP spool can spin slower but with higher torque.
There is somw room for improvement with a mecanical GTF, but not that much.

Fan blade pitch is currently optimised for cruise.
Changing the pitch may improve the take-off performance but at cruise they would be at similar pitch positions as they are now.
If anything, a variable pitch fan may be more interesting for a narrowbody doing multiple short runs.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 8:58 am
by art
Taxi645 wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
The time to get on these planes was when they were launched, not now. RR had their chance then and has to wait now for whatever is next.


Around 2025-2028 we would be talking A220 gen2. That may be the next opportunity.

lightsaber wrote:
keesje wrote:
It would probably be an uphill fight against PW. It seems 35-50k lbs would seem a better space. Probably they are working on this already. Cooperation in an alliance with companies like GE, PW, Safran, Honeywell, MTU would improve feasibility / access to additional technology and financing. PW/MTU would maybe be the best.

Image

That fan blade pitch for reverse gives me headaches when imagining the airstreams.. what would feed air to the core engine? How about compressor stall...

797 is the better option. Pratt has an exclusive on the A220 for a while. There won't be a shortage of engines in 18 months.

At this time the ultrafan is just another name for GTF. By ultrafan EIS, Pratt will have CMCs.

On the A320, the contracts specifically prohibit a 3rd engine for some period of time, probably 15 years. CFM and Pratt are ironing out issues. We're starting to talk PiP time...

To the OP, a saturated marked is a bad return on investment +ROI). RR needs money.

I personally hope for IAE on the 797.


Are you confident Pratt can keep up if Airbus decides to go to around 30 a month longer term? A rumoured additional A321 line in Toulouse would already putt more strain on them.


Why cannot Pratt increase GTF production over the course of a few years? If a business has a saleable product and foresees increasing demand in the medium/long term, it makes sense to invest to expand production capacity.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:48 am
by lightsaber
cledaybuck wrote:
The time to get on these planes was when they were launched, not now. RR had their chance then and has to wait now for whatever is next.

That needs to be emphasized. Engine vendors will not put an engine on an aircraft without a 15 year lock today. RR needs to bid on new airframes. They will.

Lightsaber

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:19 am
by Taxi645
art wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
The time to get on these planes was when they were launched, not now. RR had their chance then and has to wait now for whatever is next.


Around 2025-2028 we would be talking A220 gen2. That may be the next opportunity.

lightsaber wrote:
797 is the better option. Pratt has an exclusive on the A220 for a while. There won't be a shortage of engines in 18 months.

At this time the ultrafan is just another name for GTF. By ultrafan EIS, Pratt will have CMCs.

On the A320, the contracts specifically prohibit a 3rd engine for some period of time, probably 15 years. CFM and Pratt are ironing out issues. We're starting to talk PiP time...

To the OP, a saturated marked is a bad return on investment +ROI). RR needs money.

I personally hope for IAE on the 797.


Are you confident Pratt can keep up if Airbus decides to go to around 30 a month longer term? A rumoured additional A321 line in Toulouse would already putt more strain on them.


Why cannot Pratt increase GTF production over the course of a few years? If a business has a saleable product and foresees increasing demand in the medium/long term, it makes sense to invest to expand production capacity.


I'm not saying they definitely cannot. However for Airbus, if they would go around 30 a month long term, having to depend on PW to be able to reliably produce engines for ~65 planes a month (30 + 50% of 70) given the track record up to now would pose a significant risk for a very considerable part of their revenue.

Would it be wise to take such risk? I don't think so. Furthermore customers want engine choice. As said at such production rates, Airbus would want to hedge their bets and RR would want back into the NB market.

1 plus 1 makes.....

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:53 pm
by PW100
lightsaber wrote:
On the A320, the contracts specifically prohibit a 3rd engine for some period of time, probably 15 years.

Lightsaber


I wonder if Airbus would have renegotiated that part of the contract in the light of P&W failing to meet their contractual delivery times, reliability rates etc. over considerable period of time . . .

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:56 pm
by Waterbomber2
Taxi645 wrote:
art wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:

Around 2025-2028 we would be talking A220 gen2. That may be the next opportunity.



Are you confident Pratt can keep up if Airbus decides to go to around 30 a month longer term? A rumoured additional A321 line in Toulouse would already putt more strain on them.


Why cannot Pratt increase GTF production over the course of a few years? If a business has a saleable product and foresees increasing demand in the medium/long term, it makes sense to invest to expand production capacity.


I'm not saying they definitely cannot. However for Airbus, if they would go around 30 a month long term, having to depend on PW to be able to reliably produce engines for ~65 planes a month (30 + 50% of 70) given the track record up to now would pose a significant risk for a very considerable part of their revenue.

Would it be wise to take such risk? I don't think so. Furthermore customers want engine choice. As said at such production rates, Airbus would want to hedge their bets and RR would want back into the NB market.

1 plus 1 makes.....


It's a valid question but then we have to ask ourselves how the market is today and how it will evolve.
For the A220 and A320 to reach such production levels, they would have to gain market share at the expense of other manufacturers or other aircraft models. So that should potentially open up production capacity.

PW has little to no market share in new widebody models so that should free up some production capacity.

Also, if PW can not handle production ramp up and delivery slots are pushed out, it just means that CFM is going to win more campaigns on the A320neo.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 5:02 pm
by Taxi645
Waterbomber2 wrote:
It's a valid question but then we have to ask ourselves how the market is today and how it will evolve.
For the A220 and A320 to reach such production levels, they would have to gain market share at the expense of other manufacturers or other aircraft models. So that should potentially open up production capacity.

PW has little to no market share in new widebody models so that should free up some production capacity.

Also, if PW can not handle production ramp up and delivery slots are pushed out, it just means that CFM is going to win more campaigns on the A320neo.


It would also depend on what Boeing does with the NMA. As stated in another thread: If Boeing launches the NMA and thus commits it's resources to it, Airbus can immediately initiate a whole list of things to put the 737 in a lot more trouble still:

- Increase A320 production further
- Increase A220 production further
- Launch an A322 based on the XLR design changes
- Launch an A220-500
- Composite wingbox and state of the art new wing for the A320
- Engine PIP or more for the A320
- Engine PIP or more for the A220
- Additive manufacturing improvements on A220 and A320


You are quite right that if above factors erode MAX marketshare then CFM capacity would become available for the A320 and thus GTF capacity for the A220. That said a few issues would still remain:

- The current engine production capacity is already not sufficient to fulfil current customer narrowbody demand (note not saying current production), let alone when the A220 takes off further.
- We don't know how competitive the CFM engine will be in the 2025-2028 timeframe. It would likely be through updates, but we can't be sure.
- It would still leave a huge part of Airbus' revenue dependant on a single engine manufacturer.
- Still no engine choice on the A220.
- RR would still not be back in the NB market.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 4:50 am
by art
If I recall things correctly the A+B duopoly were happy to simply make incremental improvements to their NB offerings for a couple of decades and held back from major revision including re-engining when that option became possible. Was it the prospect of a third player (Bombardier) entering the market that pushed Airbus into launching the NEO? Whatever, both A+B launched their major NB updates and have secured enough orders to keep production going at an expanded rate of 1,200 per annum until the late 2020's. With Boeing's input (Delta affair), Airbus has neutralised any competitive threat from Bombardier. Similarly Boeing is neutralising any threat from Embraer. So we're back to a good old duopoly, aren't we? A+B can cruise along only investing small amounts in incremental improvements for another 10+ years, so what need a new engine which would reduce fuel consumption?

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:36 pm
by Taxi645
art wrote:
If I recall things correctly the A+B duopoly were happy to simply make incremental improvements to their NB offerings for a couple of decades and held back from major revision including re-engining when that option became possible. Was it the prospect of a third player (Bombardier) entering the market that pushed Airbus into launching the NEO? Whatever, both A+B launched their major NB updates and have secured enough orders to keep production going at an expanded rate of 1,200 per annum until the late 2020's. With Boeing's input (Delta affair), Airbus has neutralised any competitive threat from Bombardier. Similarly Boeing is neutralising any threat from Embraer. So we're back to a good old duopoly, aren't we? A+B can cruise along only investing small amounts in incremental improvements for another 10+ years, so what need a new engine which would reduce fuel consumption?


Personally I think Boeing and Airbus are going after each other pretty strongly. One example being the A320NEO that put Boeing in a difficult position at an inconvenient moment. Another example Boeing going after the A330-800.

If Boeing does NMA, I don't expect Airbus to do an exact same model, but they could make the situation for Boeing much tougher still in the narrowbody market.

Re: Should RR launch an ultra-fan for A220 to A320-200 thrust class?

Posted: Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:48 pm
by Sancho99504
Man, if the UltraFan were to be produced in the 35-50k thrust category..... just imagine how much more A321XLR could do with 38-40k lbs of thrust?
From the rumblings about potential SFC, it would seem to be slightly more efficient than the GTF, allowing for a higher payload at max range, allowing for the possibility of actually flying 220 people, 4,000nm.