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ElroyJetson
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How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:35 am

Airbus currently has a 238 A330 Neo aircraft on order, all but eight of which are for the A330-900 variant.

Airbus estimated in their original business case that they could sell 1,000. Flight Global estimated only around 600.

The primary competition for the A330 Neo seems to be the 788 and the 789. The 788 is almost identically sized to the 338, and they have similar range. However, the OEW of the 788 is 27,000 lbs lighter than the 338 which probably explains why the 338 has sold so poorly. I do not see any business case for the 338 as a commercial aircraft, although it might have a useful life as a freighter.

The OEW difference between the 789 and A339 is closer. The A339 is only 18,000 lbs heavier and fuel burn on shorter sectors (3000nm) are within 1 or 2% of the 789. Flights over 4,000 nm the 789 fuel burn advantage widens to 4-5%.

Airbus stated in their original business case that they could sell the A330 Neo for considerably less than the 787 so capital acquisition cost would make up for the fuel advantage enjoyed by the 787. However, media reports by Leeham and others have called this idea into question, and have reported Boeing is selling 789's for as little as 115million per plane.

So based on what is currently know, how many A330 Neo aircraft will ultimately be sold? Is the Airbus estimate of a 1,000 frames reasonable, or is the Flight Global estimated number of 600 frames closer to the mark?

How well do you see the A330 Neo selling?
707 717 727 72S 737 733 737-700 747 757 753 767-300 764 A319 A320 DC-9-10 DC-9-30 DC-9-50, MD-82 MD-88 MD-90 DC-10-10 DC-10-40 F-100
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:39 am

They also have some very sketchy airlines on the 330neo order book. Delta and TAM are about the only stable airlines that have ordered it.
 
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PM
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:56 am

I cannot see anything like 1,000 sales. At worst, it'll be another A340-500/-600 (133 frames built) but I'm hoping for a few hundred.

If I were at Airbus I'd be seriously looking at what comes between the A321 and the A350.
 
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PM
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:57 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
They also have some very sketchy airlines on the 330neo order book. Delta and TAM are about the only stable airlines that have ordered it.

I think you mean TAP.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:57 am

Something dramatic will have to change for Airbus to get to 1,000 frames.

600 is entirely realistic if it wins a few more big orders based on availability or price. The game is young - there are still lots of A330s out there to replace, reaching replacement age in a steady stream over the next 15 years.

If I had to choose a number of jellybeans in the bucket I'd probably choose 550.
 
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qf789
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:21 am

600 sounds realistic, the next airline to order it maybe new startup LCC South Korean airlines Air Premia which has teased a render of its livery on a A330-900

Image

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ng-454949/
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jetfuel
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:24 am

How cheap can you make them?
Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:27 am

PM wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
They also have some very sketchy airlines on the 330neo order book. Delta and TAM are about the only stable airlines that have ordered it.

I think you mean TAP.


Oh yes you are right.
 
scotron11
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:54 am

For what their investment was, I would say Airbus would be happy with 600 copies. Willie Walsh said last year that fuel costs on the 330ceo was not that much vs the 787
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:04 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
How well do you see the A330 Neo selling?


I can see it selling around 500-600 planes at least.

To be honest, I don't really buy some of the doom mongering on here about the A330neo. Yes it's only received just under 250 orders to date, but one important factor to consider is that a good number of A330ceo operators have relatively young ceo's that don't need replacing for some time yet, particularly given the amount of orders received for the ceo over the last decade, and would be an attractive proposition when that time comes. Why would you suddenly ditch young ceo's for neo's unless the price of oil spikes significantly or noise restrictions at some airports become tighter? We are also currently in different times where oil prices have been somewhat stable over the last few years and wasn't like when the 787 was first announced where oil prices were rising and airlines that had quad-jets, tri-jets and older twins such as 767's needed replacing.

Time will tell how well this sells, but I see it doing better than the MD-11 for instance in terms of orders and how long airlines retain them for.
 
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keesje
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:18 am

More than 1400 A330CEO's have been delivered today and many will start aging. They had an hick up with the NEO engines, now deliveries started. If the aircraft is as good and affordable as promises maybe 500-600 NEO will be sold. But then again, I don't want to join the crowd who wrote of the A330 over it's life time.

How aggressive will Boeing be when it's backlog & production rate start creating pressure to sell? Will there be a market for the A330-800, A330F NEO's , a NEO MRTT, a stretch ?

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
jghealey
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:28 am

In my opinion, many. Very soon many operators of the A330ceo will need a replacement, and what better aircraft to order than the A330neo? It's the ideal successor - very little pilot training needed and very fuel efficient.
 
stylo777
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:27 am

an indication could be a view at the currently biggest A330 operator TK with more than 65 frames: they went for a split-order of 787/350, but nothing said about the A330neo.
their oldest 330ceo being almost 14yo.; however, I expect them to order atleast a small subfleet of 15-20 A330neo's solely based on pricing, commonality and availability.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:52 am

I think around 500 is a fair bet, it may not be the pinnacle of available airliners but it still has the commonality and despite the 787's increased availability from production, the A339 will still be needed to fill some gaps that said increase can't quite reach. Airbus is willing to deal with a lot of smaller orders that Boeing perhaps won't be as incentivised to go for, and those orders will add up. It's not an inefficient frame in the slightest, and I think it will fill a lot of deals that right now are being taken up with new A330ceos.
 
parapente
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:02 am

As above 500-600.Where it's kitted out with Y9ab it's a wash with the 789.Mind you not the most comfortable having done it on a CEO.Should've done some sculptured side walls perhaps.Anyway it's all a guess.
Their biggest mistake was timing.If they had got the plane out 2+ years earlier it would have sold much more.Perhaps this is when the origonal estimate was made.It really is a question of too little - too late.
What's not a guess is the difficulty the 338 is in.If Boeing do launch the 797 then it's even deader than dead,other than a cargo aircraft.

As mentioned above,looking ahead , perhaps a year or so ,the question of the enormous 321/359 gap ( as stated above) clearly becomes the overwhelming issue.
Obviously this is not lost on Airbus who no doubt have been working on possible designs for years.This present basic airframe has served Airbus its whole life since inception so has done an admirable job,but time to move on to carbon perhaps.A 'narrow' 8ab?
What they do may depend on what Boeing does with the 797 hence both of them playing the waiting game.
Boeing to move first - or not, in Paris.
 
FatCat
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:35 am

once they close the ceo production the only 330 available will be the neo - willingly or not
so whilst older 330s will be scrapped, new 330neos will be put into service. maybe not 1:1 proportion but still, it will be a perfect choice for operators who already have crews with 330/340 type ratings and no range / capacity increase necessities.
1000pcs it's a big hit imho, I think more of something between 600 and 800 pcs
May my post not hurt your feelings
 
thegrew
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:00 am

I think it is perhaps a question of timing. I think Airbus were a little late to the quad jet retirement where 787 won lots of orders. I think now it is possibly more about waiting for Ceo replacement.

Sent from my Moto G (5) Plus using Tapatalk
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:03 am

600 I can see. The problem is that the 787-9 gives roughly the same capacity at better range, the 787-10 gives a little bit more capacity at the same range, and the 787s have newer tech and lower operating costs, plus apparently the capital costs aren't that much bigger any more.

Just as the A350 replaces the B777 ER/LR models, the 787s replace the A330s pretty much perfectly. The duopolists swapped market segments for this generation, effectively.
 
tommy1808
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:18 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
600 I can see. The problem is that the 787-9 gives roughly the same capacity at better range, the 787-10 gives a little bit more capacity at the same range, and the 787s have newer tech and lower operating costs, plus apparently the capital costs aren't that much bigger any more.

Just as the A350 replaces the B777 ER/LR models, the 787s replace the A330s pretty much perfectly. The duopolists swapped market segments for this generation, effectively.


Development of longer haul LCC may also play a role, they have no problem going 9 AB on an A330 and that may be a darn cheap way to fly people around. If it wasn't, no 8ab airline would buy any A330 ....
My guess... 400 - 500 if that segment doesn't take of, maybe 200 more if it does. Based on nothing but got feeling.

Best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
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ojjunior
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:21 am

keesje wrote:
More than 1400 A330CEO's have been delivered today and many will start aging. They had an hick up with the NEO engines, now deliveries started. If the aircraft is as good and affordable as promises maybe 500-600 NEO will be sold. But then again, I don't want to join the crowd who wrote of the A330 over it's life time.

How aggressive will Boeing be when it's backlog & production rate start creating pressure to sell? Will there be a market for the A330-800, A330F NEO's , a NEO MRTT, a stretch ?

Image


Is this an updated image?
I remember reading somewhere here that Azul canceled receiving the new A330...
I have no source, I only remember reading.
Isn't this photo outdated and this frame were redirected?
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:47 am

tommy1808 wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:
600 I can see. The problem is that the 787-9 gives roughly the same capacity at better range, the 787-10 gives a little bit more capacity at the same range, and the 787s have newer tech and lower operating costs, plus apparently the capital costs aren't that much bigger any more.

Just as the A350 replaces the B777 ER/LR models, the 787s replace the A330s pretty much perfectly. The duopolists swapped market segments for this generation, effectively.


Development of longer haul LCC may also play a role, they have no problem going 9 AB on an A330 and that may be a darn cheap way to fly people around. If it wasn't, no 8ab airline would buy any A330 ....
My guess... 400 - 500 if that segment doesn't take of, maybe 200 more if it does. Based on nothing but got feeling.

Best regards
Thomas


That's a very fair argument, but there are long haul LCCs that operate with 787s and are very comfortable doing so (Scoot and Jetstar being two great examples). I don't think the A330neo is necessary for long-haul LCC.
 
ewt340
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:58 am

The problem with neo is the fact that the -800 variant are too heavy. It's over performed in term of its capability. And it got heavy competition from B787-8.
And around 40-50% of the A330ceo orders consisted of the -200 orders.

A330-900 on the other hand, is the hot seller. They would be the one that carried neo over the 500-600 marks.

But I don't think they would reach 1000 orders. Since the -800 failed.

The question is, would Airbus launched the A350-800neo in 2025 when the new generations engines arrived? Especially since they are rumored to be working on A350neo variants for that time period.

Because we know this would kill A330neo.
 
ewt340
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:07 pm

StudiodeKadent wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:
600 I can see. The problem is that the 787-9 gives roughly the same capacity at better range, the 787-10 gives a little bit more capacity at the same range, and the 787s have newer tech and lower operating costs, plus apparently the capital costs aren't that much bigger any more.

Just as the A350 replaces the B777 ER/LR models, the 787s replace the A330s pretty much perfectly. The duopolists swapped market segments for this generation, effectively.


Development of longer haul LCC may also play a role, they have no problem going 9 AB on an A330 and that may be a darn cheap way to fly people around. If it wasn't, no 8ab airline would buy any A330 ....
My guess... 400 - 500 if that segment doesn't take of, maybe 200 more if it does. Based on nothing but got feeling.

Best regards
Thomas


That's a very fair argument, but there are long haul LCCs that operate with 787s and are very comfortable doing so (Scoot and Jetstar being two great examples). I don't think the A330neo is necessary for long-haul LCC.


A330neo with 9-abreast has been proven to be more efficient than the 9-abreast on B787, of course with the sacrifice on comfort.

on shorter regional flights bellow 4,000 nmi. 8-abreast A330-900neo have been said to be more fuel efficient than B787-9. Add that with the 9-abreast configurations for the LCC and then you got a winner.

And if you notice, many LCC that operated long-haul flights tend to fly on regional and shorter international flights instead of 15 hours flights. So Intra-Asia or North Atlantic flights. This is because on longer flights they wouldn't be able to compete properly since the fuel cost would be too high to be profitable for most of these LCC.

So they economic of A330neo for LCC worked compared to B787-8 or B787-9. Of course B787-10 would be a contender too.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:10 pm

500 or so. Only about twice the backlog at EIS.

There was a rumour of a stretch to meet package freight requirements which could add a few hundred - nothing heard lately though.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -by-amazon

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1389405&hilit=a330+100+F+a330+1000F+Amazon+a330
 
mjoelnir
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:10 pm

I think we see now an important period for the A330neo. EIS has happened and one airline, TAP, will take quite a few frames in use. Real world numbers regarding operating expenses will replace estimates.
I see the main market for the A330neo being smaller airlines, currently having a fleet of A330ceo, not doing ULH. I do not see the A330ceo as being the preferred choice of LCC, the decision there often depends on the airline a startup or having already a fleet of a certain type.
Comparing the sales success of the 787 with the A330 should take the whole family into account. The A330 is currently the second best selling wide body family. Include the A340 and it becomes the best.
The A330 family has had more orders since the EIS of the 787 than the 787 family. The main difference being that double as many A330 have already been delivered than 787.
The A330 has also not seen a complete sales stop.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:15 pm

parapente wrote:
Their biggest mistake was timing.If they had got the plane out 2+ years earlier it would have sold much more.Perhaps this is when the origonal estimate was made.It really is a question of too little - too late.


The A330neo is basically what Airbus intended to offer as a competitor to the 787 in the form of the A330-200Lite and the original variation of the A350. It didn't happen at the time because the market demanded what we now see as the A350XWB. I'm not so sure how much the fault lies with Airbus here for basically offering what the market wanted at the time?

StudiodeKadent wrote:
600 I can see. The problem is that the 787-9 gives roughly the same capacity at better range, the 787-10 gives a little bit more capacity at the same range, and the 787s have newer tech and lower operating costs, plus apparently the capital costs aren't that much bigger any more.


Not all airlines need the 787-9's range and nor are there many airlines/routes that need the extra range the 787-9 offers over the A330neo.
 
SteelChair
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:27 pm

Barring some new development, I think 300-350 is the most likely result. 500 would be a huge achievement.

Given the limited scope of the upgrade (no new cockpit with large formant displays), hopefully they can price very aggressively, amd that may help.

Lets face it, the design is almost 30 years old and they are competing against Boeing's most modern product.
 
airbazar
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:55 pm

ewt340 wrote:
A330neo with 9-abreast has been proven to be more efficient than the 9-abreast on B787, of course with the sacrifice on comfort.

on shorter regional flights bellow 4,000 nmi. 8-abreast A330-900neo have been said to be more fuel efficient than B787-9. Add that with the 9-abreast configurations for the LCC and then you got a winner.


Too big. How many LCC's do you envision needing a 350-400 seat plane? Not many at all. Even fewer when you exclude the ones that already selected the 787 like Norwegian and Scoot.
 
tommy1808
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:02 pm

StudiodeKadent wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:
600 I can see. The problem is that the 787-9 gives roughly the same capacity at better range, the 787-10 gives a little bit more capacity at the same range, and the 787s have newer tech and lower operating costs, plus apparently the capital costs aren't that much bigger any more.

Just as the A350 replaces the B777 ER/LR models, the 787s replace the A330s pretty much perfectly. The duopolists swapped market segments for this generation, effectively.


Development of longer haul LCC may also play a role, they have no problem going 9 AB on an A330 and that may be a darn cheap way to fly people around. If it wasn't, no 8ab airline would buy any A330 ....
My guess... 400 - 500 if that segment doesn't take of, maybe 200 more if it does. Based on nothing but got feeling.

Best regards
Thomas


That's a very fair argument, but there are long haul LCCs that operate with 787s and are very comfortable doing so (Scoot and Jetstar being two great examples). I don't think the A330neo is necessary for long-haul LCC.


No, for sure it isn´t needed, it is just one niche where it would excel.

best regards
Thomas
This Singature is a safe space......
 
bigjku
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:11 pm

airbazar wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
A330neo with 9-abreast has been proven to be more efficient than the 9-abreast on B787, of course with the sacrifice on comfort.

on shorter regional flights bellow 4,000 nmi. 8-abreast A330-900neo have been said to be more fuel efficient than B787-9. Add that with the 9-abreast configurations for the LCC and then you got a winner.


Too big. How many LCC's do you envision needing a 350-400 seat plane? Not many at all. Even fewer when you exclude the ones that already selected the 787 like Norwegian and Scoot.


More to the point the issue for LCCs is how to finance the planes. Delta is very unique in that they are going to hold their planes till death almost without exception and are able to pay for or finance in a non equipment specific way just about whatever they want.

Most LCC’s are not in this boat. Resale and collateral values are immensely important when financing these type of airplanes. The 787 has a significantly larger market and is likely easier to get financed on good terms.
 
ewt340
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:57 pm

bigjku wrote:
airbazar wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
A330neo with 9-abreast has been proven to be more efficient than the 9-abreast on B787, of course with the sacrifice on comfort.

on shorter regional flights bellow 4,000 nmi. 8-abreast A330-900neo have been said to be more fuel efficient than B787-9. Add that with the 9-abreast configurations for the LCC and then you got a winner.


Too big. How many LCC's do you envision needing a 350-400 seat plane? Not many at all. Even fewer when you exclude the ones that already selected the 787 like Norwegian and Scoot.


More to the point the issue for LCCs is how to finance the planes. Delta is very unique in that they are going to hold their planes till death almost without exception and are able to pay for or finance in a non equipment specific way just about whatever they want.

Most LCC’s are not in this boat. Resale and collateral values are immensely important when financing these type of airplanes. The 787 has a significantly larger market and is likely easier to get financed on good terms.


I think you don't understand that most LCC CAN'T operate long-haul flights, only selected few.
They increase fuel efficiency and lower operating cost by cramming in as much seats as possible to the cabin. Hence why the number of seats in their wide-body aircrafts tend to reach 300+ or even 400+.

That's not because they wanted to, but because they needed to.

Now realistically speaking. If they wanted to start operating long-haul flights they would have a few options:
- Second hand A330-200/A330-300 in 9-abreast.
- Brand new A330-200/-300 in 9-abreast.
- Expensive brand new B787-8/-9.
- Or second hand B777-200/-200ER.

If they don't need 300-400 seat aircraft for their long-haul flights, it means that they are not in position to operate long-haul flights in the first place.
And many LCC these days and age are swimming in cash. Lion Air, AirAsia, IndiGo, RyanAir, EasyJet, Pegasus, WestJet, Wizz Air, Southwest, JetBlue, Spirit, Allegiant.

While it's true B787 is easier to get financed. It doesn't mean that second hand aircraft or A330neo would be hard to obtained. As long as they have positive cash flow. It would be possible to get it financed.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:03 pm

I think around 500 frames. Maybe 600 if a freighter variant takes off.

If media reports are correct and Boeing can now manufacture a 789 for 90-95 million per plane that puts enormous pressure on Airbus. Basically the proposed capital cost advantage of the A330 Neo disappears.

Airbus can certainly ratchet down costs. Boeing did although it took quite a few years to do so with the 787.

It will be interesting to see how the competition plays out.
707 717 727 72S 737 733 737-700 747 757 753 767-300 764 A319 A320 DC-9-10 DC-9-30 DC-9-50, MD-82 MD-88 MD-90 DC-10-10 DC-10-40 F-100
 
BonaireFly
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:07 pm

ojjunior wrote:
keesje wrote:
More than 1400 A330CEO's have been delivered today and many will start aging. They had an hick up with the NEO engines, now deliveries started. If the aircraft is as good and affordable as promises maybe 500-600 NEO will be sold. But then again, I don't want to join the crowd who wrote of the A330 over it's life time.

How aggressive will Boeing be when it's backlog & production rate start creating pressure to sell? Will there be a market for the A330-800, A330F NEO's , a NEO MRTT, a stretch ?

Image


Is this an updated image?
I remember reading somewhere here that Azul canceled receiving the new A330...
I have no source, I only remember reading.
Isn't this photo outdated and this frame were redirected?



No, Azul cancelled their A350-900's order. They still have 5 A330-900's on order.
 
airbazar
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:08 pm

ewt340 wrote:
If they don't need 300-400 seat aircraft for their long-haul flights, it means that they are not in position to operate long-haul flights in the first place.
And many LCC these days and age are swimming in cash. Lion Air, AirAsia, IndiGo, RyanAir, EasyJet, Pegasus, WestJet, Wizz Air, Southwest, JetBlue, Spirit, Allegiant.

I think we are all making the same argument against LCC's but with different causes.
My point was that long haul or short haul, it doesn't matter. The sales aren't going to come from LCC's because as you state they don't need a plane that big to begin with, regardless of length of route. Most of these LCC's are just now getting comfortable with the size of the A321/Max-10. It will be a very long time until we see wide-spread use of large wide-bodies by LCC's. That's one cause. There are other causes like financing, business plan, market environment, etc.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:13 pm

No one has mentioned China. The Chinese airlines are responsible for the surge in demand for A330s. 38 of the 47 A330ceos delivered in 2018 went to Chinese operators. So far no Chinese airline has ordered the A330neo.







In my opinion, the future of the A330 depends on What the Chinese do. Will they continue buying A330s due to quick availability to add capacity at slot constrained airports, or will they look towards the new 797 which looks purpose built for their interasia and domestic trunk routes?
 
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SEPilot
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 2:32 pm

The A330NEO was launched with two assumptions. First, Boeing would not be able to ramp up production of the 787 enough to be able to offer quick delivery anytime soon, and second, that they would not be able to cut costs enough to offer it at a price comparable to what Airbus could offer the A330NEO for. Both have been proven wrong. And while the performance/efficiency gap between them may not be large, it is enough that most airlines, all other factors being equal, will choose the 787. But all factors are not always equal, for instance in an airline with a large A330 fleet and no Boeings. In that case it may not be worth the extra cost involved in switching. But I think that will seldom be the case, and hence I think the figure of 600 may be optimistic.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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keesje
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:03 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
No one has mentioned China. The Chinese airlines are responsible for the surge in demand for A330s. 38 of the 47 A330ceos delivered in 2018 went to Chinese operators. So far no Chinese airline has ordered the A330neo.







In my opinion, the future of the A330 depends on What the Chinese do. Will they continue buying A330s due to quick availability to add capacity at slot constrained airports, or will they look towards the new 797 which looks purpose built for their interasia and domestic trunk routes?


Agree, Chinese operators have a big influence here. No doubt the NMA will be good, I assume it will have reasonable cargo capability too. While the Chinese over the last 15 mainly focussed on connection own 1.5B souls. We are seeing that the number of Chinese that earn enough to make a trip to Europe is enormously grown, a middle class of 300-400mln has emerged that want to go abroad and has the financials. Buying an aircraft (for the next 20 years) that developing requirement could drive some flexibility (A330) over fuel efficiency (NMA). Plus they might want to fill their own completion line over a foreign one.

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
musman9853
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:07 pm

The a339 imo will have a pretty decent life, 5-600 frames. The a338 is dead in the cradle.
 
musman9853
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:07 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
No one has mentioned China. The Chinese airlines are responsible for the surge in demand for A330s. 38 of the 47 A330ceos delivered in 2018 went to Chinese operators. So far no Chinese airline has ordered the A330neo.







In my opinion, the future of the A330 depends on What the Chinese do. Will they continue buying A330s due to quick availability to add capacity at slot constrained airports, or will they look towards the new 797 which looks purpose built for their interasia and domestic trunk routes?


My bet is the 797, if Boeing can keep issues related to ramping up production down a la 777x and MAX.
 
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ojjunior
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:26 pm

BonaireFly wrote:
ojjunior wrote:
keesje wrote:
More than 1400 A330CEO's have been delivered today and many will start aging. They had an hick up with the NEO engines, now deliveries started. If the aircraft is as good and affordable as promises maybe 500-600 NEO will be sold. But then again, I don't want to join the crowd who wrote of the A330 over it's life time.

How aggressive will Boeing be when it's backlog & production rate start creating pressure to sell? Will there be a market for the A330-800, A330F NEO's , a NEO MRTT, a stretch ?

Image


Is this an updated image?
I remember reading somewhere here that Azul canceled receiving the new A330...
I have no source, I only remember reading.
Isn't this photo outdated and this frame were redirected?



No, Azul cancelled their A350-900's order. They still have 5 A330-900's on order.


Oh, right, thanks.
BTW nice bird in Azul colors isn't it?
I'm sure Delta's livery will also perfectly fit these lines, like in the A333.
Eager to see both fully painted and engines on.
 
TheOldDude
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:52 pm

This is an interesting thread because everyone is giving a point estimate. I like to think in terms of distributions. I think that is 400 is the high point of the distribution with a 50% chance, the curve to the right falls off quickly to 700. On the left side the curve is much fatter, with a nearly equal chance of 350 sales, then a steep drop to 200.
 
trav777
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:54 pm

maybe a couple hundred more tops, and only to shops that don't want to go with the other manufacturer.

it's a warmed-over jet from 30 years ago with operating disadvantages to the competition. Plus it isn't really cheaper to buy unless AB wants to lose money on it.
 
parapente
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:56 pm

The reason this aircaft was late imho was that for some extraordinary reason Airbus thought that the A350-800 would cover that area of the marketplace.Lost 2 years realising this.
It was only when they realised it was seen as non competitive that they reverted to the simplest of all possible 330 revamps ( engine and wingtip) as above, it is speculated that they might have felt there was no need to do more as there would be too longer waiting list for the too expensive 787.Wrong on both counts.
Having said that it is probably fair to say that they could not do a completely new carbon wing whilst developing the 350 wing at the same time.But there were other simple things they could have considered.
Whilst Y9ab will always be a tight squeeze on a 330 they might have considered sculpting the side walls ( hardly that difficult/expensive?) to get the seats closer to 17". It could have been a key to unlocking additional sales.Certainly was the key to the 787's economics.
You are not forcing an operator to offer 'basic economy ' but it would have had more credibility.Still they didn't.

The speculated small stretch for a 'super' cargo aircaft? Perhaps.But only if there was also a market of value for a shorter range people mover in the same way the 787-10 is.
 
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keesje
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 3:56 pm

ojjunior wrote:
BonaireFly wrote:
ojjunior wrote:

Is this an updated image?
I remember reading somewhere here that Azul canceled receiving the new A330...
I have no source, I only remember reading.
Isn't this photo outdated and this frame were redirected?



No, Azul cancelled their A350-900's order. They still have 5 A330-900's on order.


Oh, right, thanks.
BTW nice bird in Azul colors isn't it?
I'm sure Delta's livery will also perfectly fit these lines, like in the A333.
Eager to see both fully painted and engines on.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DwpDCsSXgAEx7w6.jpg:large
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Devilfish
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:53 pm

While the order may not be big...this is one tender where the NEO's mettle will be put to the test..... :box: .....

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1412807


Pricing, engine maturity and performance, and certification results will factor in in a big way.
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
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seabosdca
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:15 pm

parapente wrote:
The reason this aircaft was late imho was that for some extraordinary reason Airbus thought that the A350-800 would cover that area of the marketplace.Lost 2 years realising this.
It was only when they realised it was seen as non competitive that they reverted to the simplest of all possible 330 revamps ( engine and wingtip) as above, it is speculated that they might have felt there was no need to do more as there would be too longer waiting list for the too expensive 787.Wrong on both counts.


The key part of this is "too expensive 787." The fundamental problem for the A330neo is that the 787 is no longer too expensive. But I think Airbus's move is defensible in hindsight. Nobody expected Boeing to knock $30M out of the production cost of a 787 frame in just 2-3 years. Now the question is whether Airbus can respond in the same way and restore the A330neo's pricing advantage. It won't be easy, especially at lower production volume than the 787 is achieving.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:17 pm

I was surprised the sculpting adopted for the A350 Mk 1 was not included in the 338/339. It must be designed - was it just too expensive?
 
ZEDZAG
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:34 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:

The primary competition for the A330 Neo seems to be the 788 and the 789. The 788 is almost identically sized to the 338, and they have similar range. However, the OEW of the 788 is 27,000 lbs lighter than the 338 which probably explains why the 338 has sold so poorly. I do not see any business case for the 338 as a commercial aircraft, although it might have a useful life as a freighter.

The OEW difference between the 789 and A339 is closer. The A339 is only 18,000 lbs heavier and fuel burn on shorter sectors (3000nm) are within 1 or 2% of the 789. Flights over 4,000 nm the 789 fuel burn advantage widens to 4-5%.



May I ask where did you get the numbers from??? 8-9 t for 339 and 12-13t for 338 ??

333 and 332 were as heavy as 788 and 789, so is this your estimate???
 
trex8
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:48 pm

seabosdca wrote:
parapente wrote:
The reason this aircaft was late imho was that for some extraordinary reason Airbus thought that the A350-800 would cover that area of the marketplace.Lost 2 years realising this.
It was only when they realised it was seen as non competitive that they reverted to the simplest of all possible 330 revamps ( engine and wingtip) as above, it is speculated that they might have felt there was no need to do more as there would be too longer waiting list for the too expensive 787.Wrong on both counts.


The key part of this is "too expensive 787." The fundamental problem for the A330neo is that the 787 is no longer too expensive. But I think Airbus's move is defensible in hindsight. Nobody expected Boeing to knock $30M out of the production cost of a 787 frame in just 2-3 years. Now the question is whether Airbus can respond in the same way and restore the A330neo's pricing advantage. It won't be easy, especially at lower production volume than the 787 is achieving.


Did the a330ceo become that much more cheaper this decade? A330 production rates only reached double figures earlier this decade and ran along in mid single figures for most of the time before this. They made money then didnt they? I can see halving the rate may make it more expensive than at twice the rate but if they chugged along at the lower rate in the late 90s and 2000s and they were doing fine financially then I cant see why there is all this doom and gloom. Whether its competitive to an ever lowering 787 price is the issue. I recall threads a decade ago about people saying A was price gouging on the a330 when the 787 program was delayed.We dont know for sure what the actual cost to build for the OEMs is, there are occasional reports of what some analyst thinks it is, but they could all be wild a.. guesses. But if the list price today is higher than the 2000s when the production rate was half what it is at its peak and they were doing fine in terms of profit then, Im sure they are just fine now even if they cut back to the 2000s rate.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:19 pm

ZEDZAG wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:

The primary competition for the A330 Neo seems to be the 788 and the 789. The 788 is almost identically sized to the 338, and they have similar range. However, the OEW of the 788 is 27,000 lbs lighter than the 338 which probably explains why the 338 has sold so poorly. I do not see any business case for the 338 as a commercial aircraft, although it might have a useful life as a freighter.

The OEW difference between the 789 and A339 is closer. The A339 is only 18,000 lbs heavier and fuel burn on shorter sectors (3000nm) are within 1 or 2% of the 789. Flights over 4,000 nm the 789 fuel burn advantage widens to 4-5%.



May I ask where did you get the numbers from??? 8-9 t for 339 and 12-13t for 338 ??

333 and 332 were as heavy as 788 and 789, so is this your estimate???



Look under specs for both aircraft. The 788 has an OEW of 264,500 lbs. The A338 Neo is 291,000 OEW. The 789 is listed at 284,000 OEW. The A339 Nei is listed at 302,000 OEW.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_787_Dreamliner


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A330neo
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