Newbiepilot
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:02 am

keesje wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
No one has mentioned China. The Chinese airlines are responsible for the surge in demand for A330s. 38 of the 47 A330ceos delivered in 2018 went to Chinese operators. So far no Chinese airline has ordered the A330neo.







In my opinion, the future of the A330 depends on What the Chinese do. Will they continue buying A330s due to quick availability to add capacity at slot constrained airports, or will they look towards the new 797 which looks purpose built for their interasia and domestic trunk routes?


Agree, Chinese operators have a big influence here. No doubt the NMA will be good, I assume it will have reasonable cargo capability too. While the Chinese over the last 15 mainly focussed on connection own 1.5B souls. We are seeing that the number of Chinese that earn enough to make a trip to Europe is enormously grown, a middle class of 300-400mln has emerged that want to go abroad and has the financials. Buying an aircraft (for the next 20 years) that developing requirement could drive some flexibility (A330) over fuel efficiency (NMA). Plus they might want to fill their own completion line over a foreign one.


The A330neo has been on sale for 4.5 years and now is in service. If it fits their needs so well, when do you think a Chinese airline will actually order one?
 
DfwRevolution
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:18 am

PM wrote:
I cannot see anything like 1,000 sales. At worst, it'll be another A340-500/-600 (133 frames built) but I'm hoping for a few hundred.

If I were at Airbus I'd be seriously looking at what comes between the A321 and the A350.


I remember in 2002 when Boeing said they expected the 77W to sell 500 units. At the time they had like 80 on order and I remember thinking “no ******* way.” So, you never know.
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lightsaber
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:29 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
No one has mentioned China. The Chinese airlines are responsible for the surge in demand for A330s. 38 of the 47 A330ceos delivered in 2018 went to Chinese operators. So far no Chinese airline has ordered the A330neo.







In my opinion, the future of the A330 depends on What the Chinese do. Will they continue buying A330s due to quick availability to add capacity at slot constrained airports, or will they look towards the new 797 which looks purpose built for their interasia and domestic trunk routes?

I have to agree, the A330NEO is dependent upon China sales.

But why the talk as if the 787 has no availability? Production was ramped up to produce near term availability. Enough? I don't know.

The competition is going to be brutal. It will be facinating.
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flee
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:38 am

I doubt there will be many orders from China. They have very new A330ceos and are now awaiting the development of their home grown CRAIC CR929. If development proceeds smoothly, these will replace the A330ceos.
 
travelhound
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:02 am

If we look at airlines like HNA they purchased both the A330 and 787. For them the purchase decision was based upon their own internal growth targets rather than the economics of one plane over the other.

If we look back at deliveries of the A330 and 787 over the last ten years, they were primarily revolved around a fundamental.demand in the market place. It is only in the last couple of years where we have started to see oversupply in the market.

If we consider Boeing are increasing the production rate of the 787 to fourteen aircraft per month this year, we would have to assume there is some type of economic impetus that makes this economically feasible. From where I sit, the 787 would have to have an operating economic advantage over used A330 CEO & new A330 NEO's for this to be possible.

If we consider the flexibility of the 787 allows it to cometively fly a multitude of different route types in comparison to its opposition, the favourable economics of the aircraft could revolve just as much around fleet utilisation and flexibility as it does base operating economics.

From this perspective the 787 could be competing against the 777 and A350 just as much as it is against the A330.

There was a Randy Journal where it was noted the 787 has replaced the larger 777 on many international routes.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:10 am

flee wrote:
I doubt there will be many orders from China. They have very new A330ceos and are now awaiting the development of their home grown CRAIC CR929. If development proceeds smoothly, these will replace the A330ceos.

I agree, the China A330CEOs will be replaced by 929 aircraft, no matter their quality. It is nice having a trapped market.

Lightsaber
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aemoreira1981
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:21 am

The problem for the A330neo is that with the MTOW increase to 251t, it basically competes with another Airbus offering with newer technology---the A350-900XWB. Many airlines are opting for the latter...as both the A330-900neo and the A350-900XWB are adequate B77E/B772 replacements in the sweet spot---275-300 passengers.

I see only about 300-350 A330neos being sold. Boeing has aggressively priced and improved its production of the Dreamliner to where the B788 could take A338 orders...and the Dreamliner is lighter, permitting greater payload. The reason why the A330neo is alive is because of leasing companies, DL, D7, and TP.
 
LDRA
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:23 am

Chinese orders are heavily tied to politics. They order to balance trade deficit
 
trav777
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:24 am

travelhound wrote:
From where I sit, the 787 would have to have an operating economic advantage over used A330 CEO & new A330 NEO's for this to be possible.

If we consider the flexibility of the 787 allows it to cometively fly a multitude of different route types in comparison to its opposition, the favourable economics of the aircraft could revolve just as much around fleet utilisation and flexibility as it does base operating economics.

From this perspective the 787 could be competing against the 777 and A350 just as much as it is against the A330.

There was a Randy Journal where it was noted the 787 has replaced the larger 777 on many international routes.


I honestly expect the 78J to eat most 777 routes. All but the longest. You make very fair points on the rest of it...I don't think that the airlines will be as aggressive with replacements going forward after watching DL resurrect itself quite a bit on the back of riding frames to max lifespan, buying used, and buying cheap. Also if the 789 is selling for cheaper, only immediate delivery availability would sway a purchase decision based on metrics.

However, in my experience, most business decisions are made on relationships. There's really no compelling reason for any airline to be a single-manufacturer fleet especially when the products tilt to one side or the other depending upon WB or NB but it'll happen quite frequently. The 787's cost advantages have the first "real" opportunity to disrupt this just as the 320 and 330 did before
 
ewt340
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:31 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
No one has mentioned China. The Chinese airlines are responsible for the surge in demand for A330s. 38 of the 47 A330ceos delivered in 2018 went to Chinese operators. So far no Chinese airline has ordered the A330neo.







In my opinion, the future of the A330 depends on What the Chinese do. Will they continue buying A330s due to quick availability to add capacity at slot constrained airports, or will they look towards the new 797 which looks purpose built for their interasia and domestic trunk routes?


They wouldn't order the neo when their Ceo are still that young wouldn't they?
 
tommy1808
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:39 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
ZEDZAG wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:

The primary competition for the A330 Neo seems to be the 788 and the 789. The 788 is almost identically sized to the 338, and they have similar range. However, the OEW of the 788 is 27,000 lbs lighter than the 338 which probably explains why the 338 has sold so poorly. I do not see any business case for the 338 as a commercial aircraft, although it might have a useful life as a freighter.

The OEW difference between the 789 and A339 is closer. The A339 is only 18,000 lbs heavier and fuel burn on shorter sectors (3000nm) are within 1 or 2% of the 789. Flights over 4,000 nm the 789 fuel burn advantage widens to 4-5%.



May I ask where did you get the numbers from??? 8-9 t for 339 and 12-13t for 338 ??

333 and 332 were as heavy as 788 and 789, so is this your estimate???



Look under specs for both aircraft. The 788 has an OEW of 264,500 lbs. The A338 Neo is 291,000 OEW. The 789 is listed at 284,000 OEW. The A339 Nei is listed at 302,000 OEW.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_787_Dreamliner


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A330neo


Airbus does not have OEW in its ACAP. You are comparing the Boeing OEM OEW with an Airbus actual premium carrier proposal with all the fittings, bells and trimmings*. There will be a few tons difference between those.

Wikipedia is an excellent source collection, but when you use those for comparison, you do have to check what the sources are and say.

Best regards
Thomas

*pre-lunch even iirc, Airbus did have a weight reduction program after that.
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1989worstyear
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:22 am

ewt340 wrote:
bigjku wrote:
airbazar wrote:

Too big. How many LCC's do you envision needing a 350-400 seat plane? Not many at all. Even fewer when you exclude the ones that already selected the 787 like Norwegian and Scoot.


More to the point the issue for LCCs is how to finance the planes. Delta is very unique in that they are going to hold their planes till death almost without exception and are able to pay for or finance in a non equipment specific way just about whatever they want.

Most LCC’s are not in this boat. Resale and collateral values are immensely important when financing these type of airplanes. The 787 has a significantly larger market and is likely easier to get financed on good terms.


I think you don't understand that most LCC CAN'T operate long-haul flights, only selected few.
They increase fuel efficiency and lower operating cost by cramming in as much seats as possible to the cabin. Hence why the number of seats in their wide-body aircrafts tend to reach 300+ or even 400+.

That's not because they wanted to, but because they needed to.

Now realistically speaking. If they wanted to start operating long-haul flights they would have a few options:
- Second hand A330-200/A330-300 in 9-abreast.
- Brand new A330-200/-300 in 9-abreast.
- Expensive brand new B787-8/-9.
- Or second hand B777-200/-200ER.

If they don't need 300-400 seat aircraft for their long-haul flights, it means that they are not in position to operate long-haul flights in the first place.
And many LCC these days and age are swimming in cash. Lion Air, AirAsia, IndiGo, RyanAir, EasyJet, Pegasus, WestJet, Wizz Air, Southwest, JetBlue, Spirit, Allegiant.

While it's true B787 is easier to get financed. It doesn't mean that second hand aircraft or A330neo would be hard to obtained. As long as they have positive cash flow. It would be possible to get it financed.


Or pull a Westjet and get 763's :bouncy:
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Momo1435
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:31 am

ewt340 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
No one has mentioned China. The Chinese airlines are responsible for the surge in demand for A330s. 38 of the 47 A330ceos delivered in 2018 went to Chinese operators. So far no Chinese airline has ordered the A330neo.

In my opinion, the future of the A330 depends on What the Chinese do. Will they continue buying A330s due to quick availability to add capacity at slot constrained airports, or will they look towards the new 797 which looks purpose built for their interasia and domestic trunk routes?


They wouldn't order the neo when their Ceo are still that young wouldn't they?

Most ceo's delivered to China didn't replace anything, if they order the neo it will also be mainly for growth, not for replacement.

2018 was a very slow year for Chinese orders for both Airbus and Boeing compared to the years before. But in 2018 Airbus did deliver 35 A330s and Boeing 28 787s to China. For 2019 Boeing is set to deliver about 30 787s. Airbus could deliver another 18 A333, which are the remaining A330s Chinese airlines have on order.

It's going to be interesting to see if China will be placing new orders again this year to keep this delivery stream going in 2020 and beyond. I think they will order 787s as well as new Airbus planes, but those could also be more A350s on top of all the A350s that will already be going to China the next couple of years. Considering the planned rate reduction of the A330 production this year it doesn't seem that Airbus is too confident that they will get a lot of A330 orders with a quick delivery schedule.
 
RalXWB
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:17 am

Airbus established the A330 completion & delivery center in China just for fun...or perhaps not. :old:
 
ewt340
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:08 am

Momo1435 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
No one has mentioned China. The Chinese airlines are responsible for the surge in demand for A330s. 38 of the 47 A330ceos delivered in 2018 went to Chinese operators. So far no Chinese airline has ordered the A330neo.

In my opinion, the future of the A330 depends on What the Chinese do. Will they continue buying A330s due to quick availability to add capacity at slot constrained airports, or will they look towards the new 797 which looks purpose built for their interasia and domestic trunk routes?


They wouldn't order the neo when their Ceo are still that young wouldn't they?

Most ceo's delivered to China didn't replace anything, if they order the neo it will also be mainly for growth, not for replacement.

2018 was a very slow year for Chinese orders for both Airbus and Boeing compared to the years before. But in 2018 Airbus did deliver 35 A330s and Boeing 28 787s to China. For 2019 Boeing is set to deliver about 30 787s. Airbus could deliver another 18 A333, which are the remaining A330s Chinese airlines have on order.

It's going to be interesting to see if China will be placing new orders again this year to keep this delivery stream going in 2020 and beyond. I think they will order 787s as well as new Airbus planes, but those could also be more A350s on top of all the A350s that will already be going to China the next couple of years. Considering the planned rate reduction of the A330 production this year it doesn't seem that Airbus is too confident that they will get a lot of A330 orders with a quick delivery schedule.


That's my point though. If you look at the order book, many A330-300 actually started to become really really popular at around 2010. Which similar to B777-300ER. Many of these frames are the higher mtow version that many airlines actually prefered. So there's a possible surge for the -900neo once the older aircraft before 2010 started to be retired.

I don't count much on the -200 or the -800. Hence why I'm saying 500-600 would be acceptable. But mostly for -900.
 
ZEDZAG
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:45 am

ElroyJetson wrote:


Look under specs for both aircraft. The 788 has an OEW of 264,500 lbs. The A338 Neo is 291,000 OEW. The 789 is listed at 284,000 OEW. The A339 Nei is listed at 302,000 OEW.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_787_Dreamliner


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A330neo



LOL

There is a huge difference in wikipeda data.

While you have credible reports of 789 OEW at 128-129 ton, who reported on 339 OEW? In just entered service with one operator. Not to talk about 338 witch is still in flight testing.

For comparison, By wikipedia, 779 witch is a 3m stretch gained 12t over 77w ( witch I doubt), and you stick with 9t gain for a bird that is not stretched, just reengined.

So to compare this birds performance wise, lets wait for some credible info.

I dont think that there would be a business case for this birds if it gained 9-12t in OEW
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:04 pm

Surprised no one has mentioned one of the biggest operators of the A330ceo: LH. Is the neo even in the running for their replacement RFP? No. Nuff said.

500 frames is also too optimistic. It's a stillborn frame, along with the A380. Both loss leaders. They're a one trick pony in the WB market.
 
olle
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:35 pm

And 787 will be able to keep it current production rate eternal? If not it suddenly have a lot of production infrastrukture to pay for.

Additional; there is talk about 787 Max and 350 neo in around 10 years. I suppose 330 and 777 will not be considered for another generation engines. And with 320 series getting rewinged and 220 series bigger 358 with optimation might again be on the wall
 
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Kindanew
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:15 pm

olle wrote:
And 787 will be able to keep it current production rate eternal? If not it suddenly have a lot of production infrastrukture to pay for.

Additional; there is talk about 787 Max and 350 neo in around 10 years. I suppose 330 and 777 will not be considered for another generation engines. And with 320 series getting rewinged and 220 series bigger 358 with optimation might again be on the wall


I think the A350 Neo could be an opportunity for Airbus to introduce an optimised A350-700 and 800 with a smaller lighter wing and incorporating all of the new tech which will be on offer then.

This could capture some of the 1st gen 787 replacement market and if the trends we are seeing continue then smaller widebodies are the way to go.
 
travelhound
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:38 pm

I suspect the 787 will undergo continuous improvement with an upgrade in the 2025-2028 year period.

I was fascinated a poster mentioning the replacement cycle for the 787. In reality it could be getting close to being yesterday's technology.
 
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seahawk
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:20 pm

It surely struggles and it seems things did not get better with the entry into service Which was hoped to happen, as the performance was said to be on target or better.
 
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Revelation
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:20 pm

parapente wrote:
The reason this aircaft was late imho was that for some extraordinary reason Airbus thought that the A350-800 would cover that area of the marketplace.Lost 2 years realising this.
It was only when they realised it was seen as non competitive that they reverted to the simplest of all possible 330 revamps ( engine and wingtip) as above, it is speculated that they might have felt there was no need to do more as there would be too longer waiting list for the too expensive 787.Wrong on both counts.
Having said that it is probably fair to say that they could not do a completely new carbon wing whilst developing the 350 wing at the same time.But there were other simple things they could have considered.
Whilst Y9ab will always be a tight squeeze on a 330 they might have considered sculpting the side walls ( hardly that difficult/expensive?) to get the seats closer to 17". It could have been a key to unlocking additional sales.Certainly was the key to the 787's economics.
You are not forcing an operator to offer 'basic economy ' but it would have had more credibility.Still they didn't.

The speculated small stretch for a 'super' cargo aircaft? Perhaps.But only if there was also a market of value for a shorter range people mover in the same way the 787-10 is.

The chatter on this forum back when the project was being mooted was should they launch with a T1000 based engine or wait for RR's Advance.

The pro-T1000 camp said the engine was good enough and time to market was paramount.

The pro-Advance camp said the engine wasn't good enough and Airbus could sell cheap CEOs to keep the market engaged.

I guess we'll never know what would have happened if they waited for Advance.

What we do know is the T7000 took much longer to develop than planned so a lot of the time to market advantage disappeared.

Crucially that elapsed time fell right when Boeing was getting its act together with regard to 787 production cost.

A CFRP wing for A330neo was not under consideration once A350 launched.

The idea of protecting the A358 didn't get much play here, although it may have been a factor within Airbus.

It turns out the market rejected A358 all on its own and A338 can barely find a market as well, so A339 is left to fight on alone.
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JayinKitsap
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:51 pm

olle wrote:
And 787 will be able to keep it current production rate eternal? If not it suddenly have a lot of production infrastrukture to pay for.

Additional; there is talk about 787 Max and 350 neo in around 10 years. I suppose 330 and 777 will not be considered for another generation engines. And with 320 series getting rewinged and 220 series bigger 358 with optimation might again be on the wall


I am expecting that the 797 test aircraft will have final assembly on the Everett 787 line, initial low rate production will happen at Everett. When it is time to drop 787 production to say 9 per month, all of its production will be in Charleston, the Everett line will changed over to the 797. Eventually both will have 797 production.

2019 to 2025 is 6 years, at rate 14 it could easily produce 150 per year or 900 in total, hard to imagine after that a rate over 8-9. Could the market absorb 1,700 787s in less than 15 years. It has to taper off, might taper down in 3 to 4 years.
 
parapente
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:09 pm

We're GE ever invited/interested in the 330neo? I genuinely don't know the answer other than RR got the exclusive.GE had already developed a bleed off the core for the cropped 748 version.I imagine they could have applied this to the 'full fan' 787 engine.Perhaps then Airbus could have got this aircaft out closer to the launch time necessary.
But a lot of speculation going on here!
 
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Kindanew
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Re: How Many A 330 Neo's Will Ultimately be Sold?

Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:54 pm

parapente wrote:
We're GE ever invited/interested in the 330neo? I genuinely don't know the answer other than RR got the exclusive.GE had already developed a bleed off the core for the cropped 748 version.I imagine they could have applied this to the 'full fan' 787 engine.Perhaps then Airbus could have got this aircaft out closer to the launch time necessary.
But a lot of speculation going on here!


Both GE and Rolls wanted exclusivity and Rolls won the bid.

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