tommy1808
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:26 am

Bricktop wrote:
This is a must win for the A338. At any price.

ewt340 wrote:
I'd say A330-800 because the big big discount Airbus willing to give to them.


Yup. Airbus has good reasons to do so. By the time lots of A332 come into their replacement cycle Airbus needs to have an A338 customer base, or they can write of any customer that doesn't want to upgauge to the A339 off to Boeing. That conveniently has the same full cabin range as early A332, but will be too big for some. Getting airlines to replace their A332 with 788s gets the foot in the door to replace the same airlines A339 with 789s.
If Airbus can't win any anker customer or two with steep discounts, the 330neo is pretty much dead, and all customers where the A359 is to big will be gone.

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StudiodeKadent
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:43 am

scbriml wrote:
rlo4934 wrote:
Willy Walsh also said in Feb. 2018:

"There is a development opportunity with Airbus and Boeing, but we see the Boeing 787 more and more as a future development opportunity for Level" quoted in Airliner Watch Feb. 26, 2018.

https://airlinerwatch.com/low-cost-long ... oeing-787/

I would still give Airbus the inside track on this one.


He also said the 777X was “a perfect fit” then ordered a fleet of A35K. :wink2:


I don't think that proves much, because the 777-9 is about one size category up relative to the A35K, and BA needs the big jets to deal with slot restrictions. So both frames could be highly useful in the context of BA.
 
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:02 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
scbriml wrote:
rlo4934 wrote:
Willy Walsh also said in Feb. 2018:

"There is a development opportunity with Airbus and Boeing, but we see the Boeing 787 more and more as a future development opportunity for Level" quoted in Airliner Watch Feb. 26, 2018.

https://airlinerwatch.com/low-cost-long ... oeing-787/

I would still give Airbus the inside track on this one.


He also said the 777X was “a perfect fit” then ordered a fleet of A35K. :wink2:


I don't think that proves much, because the 777-9 is about one size category up relative to the A35K, and BA needs the big jets to deal with slot restrictions. So both frames could be highly useful in the context of BA.


If the 777X was described as 'perfect' for BA then they should really have ordered them by now. The aircraft it would most likely replace is retiring in 4 years, and that they haven't yet raises some question marks. The 787 would hardly be a bad fit for Level, but there's a precedent for an IAG CEO's public words to not hold true, so not a forgone conclusion.
 
ewt340
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:18 am

MrHMSH wrote:
StudiodeKadent wrote:
scbriml wrote:

He also said the 777X was “a perfect fit” then ordered a fleet of A35K. :wink2:


I don't think that proves much, because the 777-9 is about one size category up relative to the A35K, and BA needs the big jets to deal with slot restrictions. So both frames could be highly useful in the context of BA.


If the 777X was described as 'perfect' for BA then they should really have ordered them by now. The aircraft it would most likely replace is retiring in 4 years, and that they haven't yet raises some question marks. The 787 would hardly be a bad fit for Level, but there's a precedent for an IAG CEO's public words to not hold true, so not a forgone conclusion.


The thing with BA yeah. They hate expensive aircraft. They loved A380, but the high price tag make them refuse to adding more of those to their fleet.

Now, BA are infamous for hogging off older aircraft like B747-400. So I could only see more second hand A380 and new cheaper B777-300ER than B777X.
 
a350lover
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:18 am

VSMUT wrote:
There has been some talk about LEVEL just being a loss-making tool to kill off Norwegian and other LCCs, after which it can be expected to shut down. IMHO, the fleet choice will reflect this - either the planes will be cheap and easily disposed of (leased planes), of be of a type that fits into the future IAG fleet. In case of the former, the A330NEO could be the favorite, while the latter currently favours the 787. It is worth mentioning that only BA uses the 787 in the IAG group, and future Aer Lingus and Iberia orders could upend that equation completely.


That's pretty feasible.

LEVEL is a tool for IAG to move quickly and effectively in the current European market.

Although was created to tackle the disembark of Norwegian in BCN, it already flies from ORY and VIE filling the "gaps" of IAG's airlines network. I think it might all be folded back to the airlines of the group in the mid term, so that's something that the aircraft order will have to take into consideration. Different scenarios are likely:

-If Norwegian was finally acquired or eventually remodels somehow to become a more efficient airline (hard to believe they just go burst!), in both scenarios I see the 787 fleet going to feed the growths of BA. Like others said, the B787 only suits the current fleet of that airline within IAG. EI could may be second option? Why acquire brand-new 787s when it's highly likely they could get them either through taking over DY/DY dropping the long-haul most of the plan?

-If LEVEL truly expands independently and becomes a "needed player" for the mid term of IAG, then I see more possibilities for them with the A330s family. IB plans to receive 16 A350s, but those are just to replace the old A346s which are all going through 2022. The A330s -800 would allow that intermobility within the group should anything change rapidly for LEVEL. LEVEL is currently looking at quite ultra-long routes (BCN-SCL will only be the second longest route for the current A330-200 fleet, 2nm less than EZE-FCO flown by the Aerolineas's A330-200), which makes one think how painful for a low cost player is to operate with payloads. By acquiring A330s I believe they could make a big order not only restricted to be for the needs of LEVEL.

Today, most of the operation of long-haul LEVEL is in Spain, Barcelona (4th plane arriving this summer). That is pending from an agreement with the unions and staff at IB. They don't want to stop operating the LEVEL routes, and I am not sure what could happen in case an independent AOC was created (probably IB should get back their A330s which are painted LEVEL?). The staff who flies that operation is temporary and joined Iberia recently which makes me think they are not exactly "expensive". Pilots aren't, but just captains are the expensive part of the operation. Compared to the cost of all the rest, this is a bit like JOON, being realistic, you won't save much with new flight attendants, which is anyway the majority of the BCN-LEVEL operation.

3rd plane arriving at ORY this summer too. Martinica will be dropped, some news should come soon.

They don't say much about future airports to see this "aggressive expansion". What are your thoughts? VIE with long-haul? As far as I know, BCN is a type of market which is probing to be more successful than ORY. Despite competence from DY in Barcelona (less, just OAK/SFO now, NYC from S19), the marketing is easier for a city-airport which sees a lot of low-cost traffic of the BCN size. VIE could work quite well for LEVEL I believe.

In conclusion, IAG is now boosting LEVEL under the control of other airlines, as a brand. It might reach the point where they realize that the airline has its own identity and customer base, so that they fully create and independent project. So far, we have just one brand articulated through different enterprises and staff-companies.
Last edited by a350lover on Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:26 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
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SQ789
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:20 am

Which one is the best options for them to order?
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
ewt340
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:28 am

SQ789 wrote:
Which one is the best options for them to order?


The cheapest one.
 
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:31 am

ewt340 wrote:
SQ789 wrote:
Which one is the best options for them to order?


The cheapest one.

...and the delivery date soon too.....
 
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:40 am

LAX772LR wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I wouldn’t rule out the 787. It has been the go to aircraft for Low-Cost Long-Haul airlines.

Eh? Isn't it just Scoot, Norwegian and Jetstar?

Depends on how one defines "Low-Cost Longhaul" airlines.

Can definitely add Thomson (and arguably) WestJet, to that list.


Thomson/TUI isn't a low cost airline. It's a charter/package tour operator that sells individual tickets on the side. Some as Thomas Cook/Condor.

WestJet, are they even a LCC anymore? They offer full service, and has now started it's own LCC subsidiary.
 
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:41 am

pabloeing wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
SQ789 wrote:
Which one is the best options for them to order?


The cheapest one.

...and the delivery date soon too.....


The WOW A330NEOs could sway that.
 
AirbusA322
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:00 pm

senatorflyer wrote:
Willy once said the 787 is too expensive (purchase) for a LCC. Given that both IB and AerLingus operate A330s I would place my bet on the A330 not the 787.

Expensive? Scoot...Jetstar... come to mind. Seems to be relatively successful for the both of them. In fact Jetstar went 330s to 787s.
 
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seahawk
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:31 pm

The Boeing has a higher resale value and is more efficient. Easy win for Boeing.
 
LupineChemist
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:50 pm

This makes a lot of sense. I've also long said that a 787 fleet would make a ton of sense at IB, too so given the structure it could be combined.
 
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kmz
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:44 pm

Assuming that performance is not the decision factor, it can only be the cabin. Why do most operator choose 9 abreast B787? Then, why would they not need 9 abreast on A330NEO? If operators need 9 abreast, A330NEO is probably (unfortunately) only second choice, right?
 
SelseyBill
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:02 pm

seabosdca wrote:
Boeing is not in the habit of selling aircraft at (intentionally) loss-making prices.


mmmmmmmm........really?
 
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Revelation
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:06 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Yup. Airbus has good reasons to do so. By the time lots of A332 come into their replacement cycle Airbus needs to have an A338 customer base, or they can write of any customer that doesn't want to upgauge to the A339 off to Boeing. That conveniently has the same full cabin range as early A332, but will be too big for some. Getting airlines to replace their A332 with 788s gets the foot in the door to replace the same airlines A339 with 789s.
If Airbus can't win any anker customer or two with steep discounts, the 330neo is pretty much dead, and all customers where the A359 is to big will be gone.

I don't think the A339 is dead but I think A338 is teetering.

The progression you cite could also go with the customer seeing the A338 efficiency is such that they might as well get the A339 and if they do that they might as well look at 787 too.

Airbus needs an A338 anchor customer to get the financial community more excited about financing it.

Boeing is improving the 788 on AA's behalf and can also offer 789 and 78X so it's a strong line up.

Airbus has to leverage the common family approach to keep their base loyal, but the numbers have to work out for that to come in to play.
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:33 pm

Fleet commonality, the probable incredible deal they'll get for it and quick deliveries make the 338 have a big chance here, however the 788 is tried and tested in the aviation market, and they have DY to see how well it can perform for an LCC. This will be interesting
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:55 pm

ewt340 wrote:
SQ789 wrote:
Which one is the best options for them to order?


The cheapest one.


Not exactly. They will chose the option from which the most overall value can be derived, across the fleet's anticipated service life.

That equation may ultimately be decided by the cheapest purchase price / finance package, but it could also be the fuel efficiency, maintenance, commonality etc... which swings it, even though the ticket price is more expensive.
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:58 pm

ramzi wrote:
I will be very surprised if they pick the 787s. Isn't LEVEL essentially a brand operated by Iberia so far? Commonality with Iberia, and to a lesser extent Vueling, makes this a no brainer.

That was at the start. Right now LEVEL is a brand:
-Operated by IB from BCN and not part of oneworld and with little benefits for Iberia Plus card holders. Yes, it is IB operating the planes for Level at BCN but it is not perceived as IB by the passengers.
-Operated through the former openskies French setup from ORY. Not part of oneworld.
-Operated by a newly acquired Austrian AOC Anisec Luftfahrt and for the time being just based in VIE for short haul. Sales are being performed by Vueling instead of LEVEL and ground services at airports seing both airlines (like LGW) are co-branded Vueling-LEVEL.

This is not news but just a rumor. Level (VIE) is to take over all European (ie not in Spain) Vueling bases as the collective labour agreement with Vueling pilots makes them quite expensive and complex to run. But not a single Vueling pilot can be fired because of this, so Vueling has to grow in Spain to find place to those pilots operating overseas, before the operation can be transferred to Level.
 
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:13 pm

seabosdca wrote:
If LEVEL is looking at 9Y A330s, that's a different story, but their current 332 product is 8Y.

I don't mean to dwell endlessly on this; I just don't see why the 788 wouldn't be considered in this contest or be a reasonable product for these missions.


I would be surprised it they are looking at keeping 8 abreast if they go down the A330NEO route, although this in part depends if they want to be seen as a LCC. Due to the speed of LEVEL's start-up, they commenced operations with aircraft destined for Iberia, hence 8 abreast being the only option.

In my view the main reason to view the 789 over the 788 is CASM. The 789 will naturally have lower seat costs compared to the 788, and still be capable of operating all routes from BCN / PAR.
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:54 am

VSMUT wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Depends on how one defines "Low-Cost Longhaul" airlines.

Thomson/TUI isn't a low cost airline. It's a charter/package tour operator that sells individual tickets on the side.

WestJet, are they even a LCC anymore?

Hence the opening sentence.



seahawk wrote:
The Boeing has a higher resale value

Based on _____?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:47 am

seabosdca wrote:
reidar76 wrote:
What Boeing did to win the HA order (sold at a loss)


Source? Boeing is not in the habit of selling aircraft at (intentionally) loss-making prices. If they were willing to do so, they would have won a whole bunch of potential 747-8 orders that they lost on pricing. The consensus seems to be that the HA order was enabled by an aggressive and successful effort to cut production costs.


There is no source because it isn’t true. Airbus leaked news of the Hawaiian 787 order prior to it being announced officially to Leeham News with a confusing statement about 787-9s being offered for a lower price than it costs to build the A350-900. This was to support the Airbus marketing narrative that the 787 only wins orders against the A330neo when sold at incredible discounts. It doesn’t indicate that Boeing sold the 787 for a loss. It does not indicate that the 787 needs to be sold at a loss to win against the A330neo.
 
Planeflyer
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:20 am

Ab makes about 10% gm and Boeing 18%.

Let’s assume for just a minute that the 330neo and 787-8 are reflective of these averages.

Not saying they did but given the above,Boeing could sell a 787 for less than AB can make a 330neo and still make money.

My over under on how many posts it takes to bring up deferred costs is 9.
 
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kitplane01
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:40 am

behramjee wrote:
The choice is actually between the B789 and A338.

The A338 I feel here can win as they would be sold at a very heavy discount price which Boeing won’t be able to match. Hence the lower capital purchase costs will end up being the big decider as I expect these planes to be with Level for the next 15 years at least.

Plus the CCQ - cross crew qualification rating with the A321 and A330 will help in saving costs over the long run !


Please remember that fuel is 50% of an airlines cost, and airplane acquisition is 10%. So fuel consumption difference matters much more than initial price difference. Crew training is much less than either of these.
 
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:43 am

VSMUT wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I wouldn’t rule out the 787. It has been the go to aircraft for Low-Cost Long-Haul airlines.


Eh? Isn't it just Scoot, Norwegian and Jetstar? Combined about 60-ish 787s? Scoot and Jetstar both inherited the planes from their mother companies. Norwegian and Jetstar ordered and received the planes before the A330NEO had even been launched. By comparison, the Air Asia X order for A330NEOs is for 100x planes, putting the Airbus in the lead among the long-haul LCCs ;)

There has been some talk about LEVEL just being a loss-making tool to kill off Norwegian and other LCCs, after which it can be expected to shut down. IMHO, the fleet choice will reflect this - either the planes will be cheap and easily disposed of (leased planes), of be of a type that fits into the future IAG fleet. In case of the former, the A330NEO could be the favorite, while the latter currently favours the 787. It is worth mentioning that only BA uses the 787 in the IAG group, and future Aer Lingus and Iberia orders could upend that equation completely.


If the goal is to easily sell later, the 787 is a much better choice than the A330neo. The A330neo aftermarket is currently zero (I think).
 
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:33 am

LAX772LR wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The Boeing has a higher resale value

Based on _____?


Existing fleet base and orders. At the moment the A338 is something of like a unicorn in the market, which usually means less takers for used frames.
 
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:23 am

seahawk wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The Boeing has a higher resale value

Based on _____?

Existing fleet base and orders. At the moment the A338 is something of like a unicorn in the market, which usually means less takers for used frames.

That would be undeniably true if the A338 were an all new, or even heavily redesigned, model... but it's not.

It's basically an A332 with a modified winglet and pylon. Combine that with the fact that the secondary market for 787s hasn't effectively even begun; and you'll understand why your statement is way too premature to be taken as anything other than speculation, even if its the more likely future outcome.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:39 am

LAX772LR wrote:
seahawk wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Based on _____?

Existing fleet base and orders. At the moment the A338 is something of like a unicorn in the market, which usually means less takers for used frames.

That would be undeniably true if the A338 were an all new, or even heavily redesigned, model... but it's not.

It's basically an A332 with a modified winglet and pylon. Combine that with the fact that the secondary market for 787s hasn't effectively even begun; and you'll understand why your statement is way too premature to be taken as anything other than speculation, even if its the more likely future outcome.


Sure it is speculation, as Airbus could still win some large orders and change the unicorn status of the A338, but if you look at ordering a plane right now, you can only look at available data and that does not look good for the A338. Add that the 787 is more efficient and Boeing is able to match the price through the economy of scale advantage of the 787, selling the NEO is difficult. The only point for the A330NEO at Level is the existing and not so old A330CEO fleet into which the A330NEO would integrate more easily from the crew training perspective.
 
tommy1808
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:34 am

seahawk wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Existing fleet base and orders. At the moment the A338 is something of like a unicorn in the market, which usually means less takers for used frames.

That would be undeniably true if the A338 were an all new, or even heavily redesigned, model... but it's not.

It's basically an A332 with a modified winglet and pylon. Combine that with the fact that the secondary market for 787s hasn't effectively even begun; and you'll understand why your statement is way too premature to be taken as anything other than speculation, even if its the more likely future outcome.


Sure it is speculation, as Airbus could still win some large orders and change the unicorn status of the A338, but if you look at ordering a plane right now, you can only look at available data and that does not look good for the A338. Add that the 787 is more efficient


The A338 has 10% more floor space, has a 3m longer cabin to offset 9ab, and quite a bit more range than the 787-8 and still more than the -9.
And they get that for what... 3% more fuel burn? For Airlines with high density cabin, like level, and a good supply of long routes, like level, the 787 for once may not be the most efficient aircraft, unless level also wants to upgauge quite a bit to the -9.

Best regards
Thomas
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a350lover
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:05 am

Don't know if anyone said anything about this movement between IAG/Vueling and the slots of FlyBe in LGW.

http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN ... slots.aspx

I wonder if this could mean any further expansion on low cost routes from London with a separate brand/airline of the IAG group, namely VY/LEVEL?
 
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:19 pm

a350lover wrote:
Don't know if anyone said anything about this movement between IAG/Vueling and the slots of FlyBe in LGW.

http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN ... slots.aspx

I wonder if this could mean any further expansion on low cost routes from London with a separate brand/airline of the IAG group, namely VY/LEVEL?


This presumably is their slots for the NQY PSO service, which will be transferring to LHR.

Quite something when three pairs of LGW slots are worth more than double that of your entire airline...
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VSMUT
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:31 pm

kitplane01 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I wouldn’t rule out the 787. It has been the go to aircraft for Low-Cost Long-Haul airlines.


Eh? Isn't it just Scoot, Norwegian and Jetstar? Combined about 60-ish 787s? Scoot and Jetstar both inherited the planes from their mother companies. Norwegian and Jetstar ordered and received the planes before the A330NEO had even been launched. By comparison, the Air Asia X order for A330NEOs is for 100x planes, putting the Airbus in the lead among the long-haul LCCs ;)

There has been some talk about LEVEL just being a loss-making tool to kill off Norwegian and other LCCs, after which it can be expected to shut down. IMHO, the fleet choice will reflect this - either the planes will be cheap and easily disposed of (leased planes), of be of a type that fits into the future IAG fleet. In case of the former, the A330NEO could be the favorite, while the latter currently favours the 787. It is worth mentioning that only BA uses the 787 in the IAG group, and future Aer Lingus and Iberia orders could upend that equation completely.


If the goal is to easily sell later, the 787 is a much better choice than the A330neo. The A330neo aftermarket is currently zero (I think).


You wouldn't buy a plane if you had plans to get rid of it again in a relatively short span of time. You would lease, in which case the resale market means absolutely nothing to Level/IAG. That's the problem of the leasing company, not the airline.

As it currently stands, leasing rates for the A330NEO are probably lower than for the 787, given the demand for one and lack of demand for the other. Other members are probably more into this aspect than I am.
 
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:49 pm

VSMUT wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

Eh? Isn't it just Scoot, Norwegian and Jetstar? Combined about 60-ish 787s? Scoot and Jetstar both inherited the planes from their mother companies. Norwegian and Jetstar ordered and received the planes before the A330NEO had even been launched. By comparison, the Air Asia X order for A330NEOs is for 100x planes, putting the Airbus in the lead among the long-haul LCCs ;)

There has been some talk about LEVEL just being a loss-making tool to kill off Norwegian and other LCCs, after which it can be expected to shut down. IMHO, the fleet choice will reflect this - either the planes will be cheap and easily disposed of (leased planes), of be of a type that fits into the future IAG fleet. In case of the former, the A330NEO could be the favorite, while the latter currently favours the 787. It is worth mentioning that only BA uses the 787 in the IAG group, and future Aer Lingus and Iberia orders could upend that equation completely.


If the goal is to easily sell later, the 787 is a much better choice than the A330neo. The A330neo aftermarket is currently zero (I think).


You wouldn't buy a plane if you had plans to get rid of it again in a relatively short span of time. You would lease, in which case the resale market means absolutely nothing to Level/IAG. That's the problem of the leasing company, not the airline.

As it currently stands, leasing rates for the A330NEO are probably lower than for the 787, given the demand for one and lack of demand for the other. Other members are probably more into this aspect than I am.

[Relative] Lack of demand increases lease rates, not lowers them. Right now the 789 and A359 are the lease darlings replacing the A333 and 77W (for brand new planes). Lack of demand of course might mean an airline can score a deal in the short term from existing leasing company orders, but that will change for future orders/top ups if demand never increases.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:06 pm

Polot wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:

If the goal is to easily sell later, the 787 is a much better choice than the A330neo. The A330neo aftermarket is currently zero (I think).


You wouldn't buy a plane if you had plans to get rid of it again in a relatively short span of time. You would lease, in which case the resale market means absolutely nothing to Level/IAG. That's the problem of the leasing company, not the airline.

As it currently stands, leasing rates for the A330NEO are probably lower than for the 787, given the demand for one and lack of demand for the other. Other members are probably more into this aspect than I am.

[Relative] Lack of demand increases lease rates, not lowers them. Right now the 789 and A359 are the lease darlings replacing the A333 and 77W (for brand new planes).


Low production rate airplanes have lower residual values since there likely will be less demand after the typical 12 year lease, which likely hurts the A338, but not as much the A339. Interest rates within the lease will be higher because the secondary market may be weak which can cause difficulty placing the airplane with a secondary operator. There is risk of premature retirement like A340-500s, A318s or placing airplanes at secondary operators at extremely low prices like the MD90 or 717. Higher risk means higher interest rates. However this doesn’t outweigh purchase price. What it likely means is that A330-800 and A330-900 prices are very similar. I can’t see lessors having much interest in the A338.

The A330-900 has some very low lease rates right now and airplanes are getting leased to airlines with relatively poor credit or long term stability. Airbus sold quickly to lessors which had pros and cons. Airbus is now competing with lessors to place airplanes and lessors are having to offer low rates. Azul got A330-900s for $783,000 per month which is pretty close to the lease price for an A330-300

viewtopic.php?t=1374235

We will see what Level decides. Buying is likely better for them than leasing and I would assume IAG has fairly strong credit. I still struggle to see them getting the A338 instead of A339.

  • The A339 will have enough range to get to the US west coast from Europe.
  • A339 and A338 trip costs will be similar with equal payloads since OEWs are relatively close
  • A339 CASM is better since the extra seats have low marginal trip cost
  • The A339 and A338 acquisition prices likely will be similar since manufacturing costs for Airbus are very similar due to high commonality
  • Financing and leasing companies will likely offer more attractive terms for the A339 than A338
 
BAWLGW
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:39 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I wouldn’t rule out the 787. It has been the go to aircraft for Low-Cost Long-Haul airlines.

Eh? Isn't it just Scoot, Norwegian and Jetstar?

Depends on how one defines "Low-Cost Longhaul" airlines.

Can definitely add Thomson (and arguably) WestJet, to that list.


It’s TUI now, and it’s Charter not a LCC
 
PlymSpotter
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:32 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
We will see what Level decides. Buying is likely better for them than leasing and I would assume IAG has fairly strong credit. I still struggle to see them getting the A338 instead of A339.

  • The A339 will have enough range to get to the US west coast from Europe.
  • A339 and A338 trip costs will be similar with equal payloads since OEWs are relatively close
  • A339 CASM is better since the extra seats have low marginal trip cost
  • The A339 and A338 acquisition prices likely will be similar since manufacturing costs for Airbus are very similar due to high commonality
  • Financing and leasing companies will likely offer more attractive terms for the A339 than A338


If IAG are looking to operate a single type in their fleet, then it must have the range to reach EZE and SCL, plus be capable of operating out of higher altitude airports on 6,000 miles sectors. In a high density configuration, SCL will be beyond the A339's range, EZE will be marginal, and performance from airports like MEX, UIO and BOG would be reduced - not great considering LEVEL's expansion plans.

So to me the question is whether they actually go all A388, or end up with a split order for the A338 and A339... should they chose Airbus.
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:19 pm

I wonder how bg this order will be. At minimum a few frames for 2020 expansion to run alongside the A332s.

But at maximum? Assume IAG are contemplating a growth path shallower than Norwegian's, that could still be steep. Better comparators are Scoot and Jetstar, long haul LCC's within a legacy parent /group. Assume also that the A332s go back to IB.

It could easily be 20 +20 or bigger.
 
Turnhouse1
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:47 pm

Though if IAG just buy the planes, presumably at cost as selling to IAG would be great marketing for a plane which is struggling so Airbus are likely to be open to a deal, hey can use them for LEVEL, if it doesn't work out then IB or EI can use them. Is there any part that would be needed for the A338 that isn't going to be needed for the A339, unlikely, so I don't see a problem there. Again if they go for 788s then if LEVEL doesn't work out BA can find some use for them as part of their fleet.
 
trex8
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:19 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
[
[*]The A339 and A338 acquisition prices likely will be similar since manufacturing costs for Airbus are very similar due to high commonality
[*]Financing and leasing companies will likely offer more attractive terms for the A339 than A338[/list]



A338 "lists" for US$36 million less 259.9 vs 296.4 than a A339
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... lease.html

financing may well be better for an A339 but I doubt enough to overcome that price difference even if actual acquisition price is half the list.
Last edited by trex8 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Antarius
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:23 pm

trex8 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
[
[*]The A339 and A338 acquisition prices likely will be similar since manufacturing costs for Airbus are very similar due to high commonality
[*]Financing and leasing companies will likely offer more attractive terms for the A339 than A338[/list]



A338 "lists" for US$36 million more than a A339
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... lease.html

financing may well be better for an A339 but I doubt enough to overcome that price difference even if actual acquisition price is half the list.


No it does not. Look at your link

A338 - 259.9
A339 - 296.4
2018: AUA CLT IAH HOU DFW COS DEN CLL ORD PEK PVG PHX SFO SJC OAK PHL YYC STL DTW HNL OGG JFK LGA EWR GIG GRU IGU CWB SDU MDW BOS IAD DCA PBI FLL MIA
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:25 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:

Low production rate airplanes have lower residual values since there likely will be less demand after the typical 12 year lease, which likely hurts the A338, but not as much the A339.

...Snip...

The A330-900 has some very low lease rates right now and airplanes are getting leased to airlines with relatively poor credit or long term stability.

Scooby says rhoo-rhoi rhoo.

Low lease rates imply a very bad secondary market. That increases the cost of financing airlines except those with stelker credit ratings.

Nice plane, just a bit of extra skin friction and weight unless selling premium Y (Delta) or going 9-across in Y (AirAsia).

Lightsaber
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tigerotor77w
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:36 pm

Planeflyer wrote:
Ab makes about 10% gm and Boeing 18%.


Where did you find these figures? Are they accurate for Airbus' commercial group and BCA, or are they overall figures for the entire company?
 
trex8
Posts: 5218
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:42 pm

Antarius wrote:
trex8 wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
[
[*]The A339 and A338 acquisition prices likely will be similar since manufacturing costs for Airbus are very similar due to high commonality
[*]Financing and leasing companies will likely offer more attractive terms for the A339 than A338[/list]



A338 "lists" for US$36 million more than a A339
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... lease.html

financing may well be better for an A339 but I doubt enough to overcome that price difference even if actual acquisition price is half the list.


No it does not. Look at your link

A338 - 259.9
A339 - 296.4

sorry goofed first post, should have said less, edited
 
33lspotter
Posts: 501
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:48 pm

scbriml wrote:
He also said the 777X was “a perfect fit” then ordered a fleet of A35K. :wink2:


The A35K order was placed in September 2013, while the 777X didn't formally launch until December of that year. The A350 programme, meanwhile, was launched in late 2006 and the initial delivery was late 2014 so -- given the time between programme launch and delivery/EIS -- maybe he was looking to go with something with an earlier EIS date (particularly with the 744 retirements underway).
 
metroline2006
Posts: 33
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:53 pm

BAWLGW wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
Well, they wanted Norwegians 788s and 789s.


If they were to take DY's 787 from either a take over or by buying their assets after they've folded, I would imagine that they'd eventually be placed into BA's fleet.


I agree if IAG were to get DY the B787 fleet would go to BA either to the LHR or LGW fleets. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear Airbus offering A338 and very low prices or as a sweetener for a A388 deal or A32-Neo deal
 
pabloeing
Topic Author
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:12 am

¿A339 can do BCN-NRT?
 
PlymSpotter
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:30 am

pabloeing wrote:
¿A339 can do BCN-NRT?


Depends on the configuration, as it is well within the published still air range.

In a high density layout BCN-NRT would be marginal, but most likely made possible by favourable winds. The return NRT-BCN sector against prevailing winds would be another story.
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BrianDromey
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:54 am

metroline2006 wrote:
BAWLGW wrote:
WaywardMemphian wrote:
Well, they wanted Norwegians 788s and 789s.


If they were to take DY's 787 from either a take over or by buying their assets after they've folded, I would imagine that they'd eventually be placed into BA's fleet.


I agree if IAG were to get DY the B787 fleet would go to BA either to the LHR or LGW fleets. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear Airbus offering A338 and very low prices or as a sweetener for a A388 deal or A32-Neo deal


They might take the DY fleet, but it wouldn't be immediate. BA doesn't have an acute shortage of 787/777/350 sized aircraft, as they are refurbishing the 772ERs and keeping them to 30+ years. I think DY has 11 long haul destinations at Gatwick (AUS, BOS, EZE, DEN, FLL, MCO, LAS, LAX, JFK, OAK, SEA), all of which are operated by BA, from London, so there is a lot of duplication that BA would be keen to minimise. BA probably do have enough slots at LHR to consolidate lower frequency flights like AUS, EZE, DEN and SEA at LHR. LAS, MCO, FLL are very much the bread and butter of Gatwick, so would probably be integrated into a BA operation there. The rest probably just dilute yield.

In the above scenario around half a dozen 787s might be reconfigured to three-class and go to LHR. Theres no real reason that BA couldn't operate an A320/777/787 fleet at Gatwick, leaving only around eight frames. This could provide IAG with a Scandinavian long-haul presence while MAD could be folded into IB, BCN, PAR and ROM into LV, which will require a number of A330/787s.

Its clear to me that LV should choose the aircraft best for its current operations, given the aircraft operated by the wider group and possible future acquisitions fleets can be reshuffled around the group relatively easily. Indeed this is a stated aim of IAG. Given that LEVEL already has 2 AOC's, there's far less reason to operate a on-type fleet.
 
Planeflyer
Posts: 1310
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:33 pm

tigerotor77w wrote:
Planeflyer wrote:
Ab makes about 10% gm and Boeing 18%.


Where did you find these figures? Are they accurate for Airbus' commercial group and BCA, or are they overall figures for the entire company?



Right off published financials. Easily found on the websites.

Google Boeing or airbus earnings call to get managements take.

Ab gives very little detail other than sales for the different businesses they operate but based on the fact that commercial is like 80% of the total I think it is fair to say that commercial is earning about 10%

Boeing provides lots of detail.

The lack of financial transparency and constant unexpected earnings write downs motivated me selling my shares.

Ab is not an investor friendly company yet.
 
musman9853
Posts: 421
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Re: LEVEL to order B787 or A330-800

Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:17 pm

Turnhouse1 wrote:
Though if IAG just buy the planes, presumably at cost as selling to IAG would be great marketing for a plane which is struggling so Airbus are likely to be open to a deal, hey can use them for LEVEL, if it doesn't work out then IB or EI can use them. Is there any part that would be needed for the A338 that isn't going to be needed for the A339, unlikely, so I don't see a problem there. Again if they go for 788s then if LEVEL doesn't work out BA can find some use for them as part of their fleet.


that's my main reasoning that they go with the 787. remember att the speculation that iag would but norwegian just to get their 787s over to BA, it makes sense that tehy want to maintain commonality at BA more so than any other airline in IAGs group.
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