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keesje
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Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:23 am

Bombardier and Embraer decided it's in their interest to join the bigger OE's Airbus and Boeing

Mitisubishi has been going alone on the so far, competing mainly with Embraer E2-jets, up to 90-100 seats.

Image

The program was significantly delayed for modifications & a law suits on IP with BBD is going on as we speak.

Possible customers will be focussed on solid aftermarket support from day 1. Specially day 1. Decade old orders from Trans States Holdings and SkyWest totally dominate the order book. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_Regional_Jet#Orders But Skywest holds big BBD / Embraer fleets & orders.

Mitsubishi had to do big extra investments lately. It very well might be a good aircraft. Might joining the Airbus-BBD alliance be an option? The MRJ seem to fit nicely under the A220 and the CRJ's seems to be out of favor. Joining up with BBD aftermarket network and plugging into Airbus sales network could help.

Alone is alone and the MRJ program could use some support / long term stability it seems.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-Trends/Boeing-and-Airbus-small-jet-entries-pose-risk-to-Mitsubishi
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cheapgreek
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:36 pm

Way too late to delivery, scope clause will severely limit sales, size already well covered by other OEM's. Mitsubishi will lose out big time on this launch.
 
raylee67
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:35 pm

You can say the same for ARJ21/C919 and SSJ/MC21. And there is something else the same between the three. The governments of respective countries see these as a national lesson to allow their country to learn how to produce a modern aircraft. Producing a large modern aircraft demands the highest level of sophistication in design, science, technology, engineering, manufacturing and support. If they sell, it's good, but if they don't sell, it's still good.

Mitsubishi, same as AVIC and UAC, has the full backing of the government for the program. The program is actually shared by many Japanese manufacturing and engineering heavyweight. Mitsubishi is just the front company leading the project.

Besides, technically the MRJ covers the 80-95 seat range, which is only covered by the E2 (if you discount ARJ21 and SSJ). There are no other competitors. The existing CRJ700/900 and EMB170/175/190 will need to be replaced eventually, and they cannot be all replaced by 110-seaters like A220. There will be need of 80-seat jets. The scope clause only applies in US. It is a large and important market, but it is not enough to "sink" the program (especially a government backed one).
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:53 pm

The Airbus / BBD deal excluded the full BBD range, because the ATR range, size wise, conflicted, requiring more anti-competitor style watchdog involvement / comment / conditions, delaying acquisition of the primary target. The balance of the BBD range might have also been excluded because the MRJ was on the agenda.

In theory, would provide Airbus with more NB build capacity, though Mitsubishi haven't had much recent practice building complete commercial aircraft in any sort of volume.

Already a massive exposure to PW engines, which the MRJ would take even further, making the marriage of Airbus and PW (commercial) engines even more likely, together with RR.
 
georgiabill
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:53 pm

I for one was somewhat surprised that Boeing and Mitsubishi did not form agreement in regards to the aviation sector of Mitsubishi businesses based on previous deals between the companies. I would not be surprised if Mitsubishi will be involved with the 797 program if launched.
 
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:15 pm

georgiabill wrote:
I for one was somewhat surprised that Boeing and Mitsubishi did not form agreement in regards to the aviation sector of Mitsubishi businesses based on previous deals between the companies. I would not be surprised if Mitsubishi will be involved with the 797 program if launched.

Mitsubishi cannot offer Boeing what they would want even if they want to reach some cooperation agreement
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:32 pm

raylee67 wrote:
You can say the same for ARJ21/C919 and SSJ/MC21. And there is something else the same between the three. The governments of respective countries see these as a national lesson to allow their country to learn how to produce a modern aircraft. Producing a large modern aircraft demands the highest level of sophistication in design, science, technology, engineering, manufacturing and support. If they sell, it's good, but if they don't sell, it's still good.

Mitsubishi, same as AVIC and UAC, has the full backing of the government for the program. The program is actually shared by many Japanese manufacturing and engineering heavyweight. Mitsubishi is just the front company leading the project.

Besides, technically the MRJ covers the 80-95 seat range, which is only covered by the E2 (if you discount ARJ21 and SSJ). There are no other competitors. The existing CRJ700/900 and EMB170/175/190 will need to be replaced eventually, and they cannot be all replaced by 110-seaters like A220. There will be need of 80-seat jets. The scope clause only applies in US. It is a large and important market, but it is not enough to "sink" the program (especially a government backed one).

The different is that the domestic Japanese demand on regional jet is much less than the other two government, and Japan also have much less need to establish their own aviation industry than China/Russia
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:55 pm

keesje wrote:
Bombardier and Embraer decided it's in their interest to join the bigger OE's Airbus and Boeing

Mitisubishi has been going alone on the so far, competing mainly with Embraer E2-jets, up to 90-100 seats.

Image

The program was significantly delayed for modifications & a law suits on IP with BBD is going on as we speak.

Possible customers will be focussed on solid aftermarket support from day 1. Specially day 1. Decade old orders from Trans States Holdings and SkyWest totally dominate the order book. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_Regional_Jet#Orders But Skywest holds big BBD / Embraer fleets & orders.

Mitsubishi had to do big extra investments lately. It very well might be a good aircraft. Might joining the Airbus-BBD alliance be an option? The MRJ seem to fit nicely under the A220 and the CRJ's seems to be out of favor. Joining up with BBD aftermarket network and plugging into Airbus sales network could help.

Alone is alone and the MRJ program could use some support / long term stability it seems.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-Trends/Boeing-and-Airbus-small-jet-entries-pose-risk-to-Mitsubishi


Well, it’d be another clean sheet which is worth considering. It also would fill the sub-A220 gap that Boeing would otherwise have latgely to themselves. The question becomes is it going to be a product in demand or will it fizzle a bit due to market dynamics?

I personally like the MRJ and hope that it takes up the reigns from the withering CRJ line in providing a competitive alternative to the EJets.
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trav777
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:05 pm

probably will sell to japanese and japan-friendly airlines in the region...little elsewhere unless it shows up big in actual ops
 
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keesje
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:46 pm

I have some confidence that it is actually a well engineering high quality aircaft, although I have little info to justify this.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:49 am

I have no doubt it is, (or will be), a great aircraft. I also have no doubt that it will enter service and be around for a while.

This has always been something of a vanity/research project so it's not limited by normal economic boundaries. It is something of a 'national pride' type project and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has much deeper pockets than BBD so they can take all the time they like without worry of financial ruin.
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:00 am

keesje wrote:
I have some confidence that it is actually a well engineering high quality aircaft, although I have little info to justify this.


we have a full century of quality engineering history to justify it.
a major Japanese industrial effort is not going to put out substandard crap. late, over budget, non impactful - yes. but not crap.
 
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:59 am

c933103 wrote:
georgiabill wrote:
I for one was somewhat surprised that Boeing and Mitsubishi did not form agreement in regards to the aviation sector of Mitsubishi businesses based on previous deals between the companies. I would not be surprised if Mitsubishi will be involved with the 797 program if launched.

Mitsubishi cannot offer Boeing what they would want even if they want to reach some cooperation agreement


Mitsubishi did contract with Boeing

LE BOURGET, France, June 22, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation and Boeing (NYSE: BA) announced a partnership today at the Paris Air Show for Boeing to provide customer support services for the Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ) family of regional commercial jets.

"We are pleased to announce we have concluded an agreement with Boeing for MRJ customer support as the Mitsubishi Regional Jet sets the new standard for next- generation regional jets truly suited for the 21st century," said Hideo Egawa, president, Mitsubishi Aircraft. "With this agreement, Mitsubishi Aircraft will be able to deliver profit-enhancing support and a competitive boost to our customers. We are confident that this agreement will further strengthen the relationship between our two companies."

Boeing Commercial Aviation Services will provide Mitsubishi Aircraft with 24/7 customer support including spare parts provisioning, service operations and field services. It will allow Mitsubishi to focus on launching its business as it works with Boeing to create a world-class services operation that Mitsubishi may bring in house in the future.


https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2011-06-22 ... d-Services
 
cheapgreek
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:28 am

raylee67 wrote:
You can say the same for ARJ21/C919 and SSJ/MC21. And there is something else the same between the three. The governments of respective countries see these as a national lesson to allow their country to learn how to produce a modern aircraft. Producing a large modern aircraft demands the highest level of sophistication in design, science, technology, engineering, manufacturing and support. If they sell, it's good, but if they don't sell, it's still good.

Mitsubishi, same as AVIC and UAC, has the full backing of the government for the program. The program is actually shared by many Japanese manufacturing and engineering heavyweight. Mitsubishi is just the front company leading the project.

Besides, technically the MRJ covers the 80-95 seat range, which is only covered by the E2 (if you discount ARJ21 and SSJ). There are no other competitors. The existing CRJ700/900 and EMB170/175/190 will need to be replaced eventually, and they cannot be all replaced by 110-seaters like A220. There will be need of 80-seat jets. The scope clause only applies in US. It is a large and important market, but it is not enough to "sink" the program (especially a government backed one).


Quote "There will be need of 80-seat jets." To say there is a need for an 80 seat Rj is to fragment the market, right now there are 65, 70, 75, 90 seat RJ's, that's enough to cover the needs of all of the airlines. Another problem is that to add the Mitsubishi to an airlines RJ fleet is to introduce another fleet type, very costly, maintenance, pilot training, parts inventory, etc. Mitsubishi missed the boat by poorly executing the MRJ program launched in 2008. Now the enter service date is 2020, hardly a confidence builder.
 
Prost
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:48 am

Isn’t it DOA in the US because they weights are too high for US pilot scope clauses in their contracts?
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:07 am

I don't think that the MRJ program will be sold to A or B. There was a chance for a sale to B, but with the Embraer tie-up, I don't see it anymore.
As some have already stated, it's a research project to see what it takes to build a commercial aircraft in this era and how well it can do commercially.
Quality and reliability should be good, but a lot also depends on the quality delivered by the army of foreign suppliers, starting with the engines. This is not easy to steer.
I think that the MRJ is just a stepping stone for what's coming next and I think that MHI is going to apply their learnings to build a narrowbody to compete with the next generation of narrowbodies from A and B, with a launch around the middle of the next decade, when new engines are available.
Basically, at the next round of innovation, it will be the Americans, the Europeans, the Russians, the Chinese and the Japanese competing for a slice of the lucrative narrowbody market.
 
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:34 am

Newbiepilot wrote:
c933103 wrote:
georgiabill wrote:
I for one was somewhat surprised that Boeing and Mitsubishi did not form agreement in regards to the aviation sector of Mitsubishi businesses based on previous deals between the companies. I would not be surprised if Mitsubishi will be involved with the 797 program if launched.

Mitsubishi cannot offer Boeing what they would want even if they want to reach some cooperation agreement


Mitsubishi did contract with Boeing

LE BOURGET, France, June 22, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation and Boeing (NYSE: BA) announced a partnership today at the Paris Air Show for Boeing to provide customer support services for the Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ) family of regional commercial jets.

"We are pleased to announce we have concluded an agreement with Boeing for MRJ customer support as the Mitsubishi Regional Jet sets the new standard for next- generation regional jets truly suited for the 21st century," said Hideo Egawa, president, Mitsubishi Aircraft. "With this agreement, Mitsubishi Aircraft will be able to deliver profit-enhancing support and a competitive boost to our customers. We are confident that this agreement will further strengthen the relationship between our two companies."

Boeing Commercial Aviation Services will provide Mitsubishi Aircraft with 24/7 customer support including spare parts provisioning, service operations and field services. It will allow Mitsubishi to focus on launching its business as it works with Boeing to create a world-class services operation that Mitsubishi may bring in house in the future.


https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2011-06-22 ... d-Services

I mean a cooperation agreement that would get Boeing's help to market the plane like what E-jet is probably going to get now.
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:43 am

I still believe the MRJ is prefect for HA to replace the 717. It's deliberately designed to have a much shorter range than the A220 and E2 so on paper it'd be way more efficient on interisland routes. Since Mitsubishi redesigned the hold, does anyone know of it can carry an adequate amount of surfboards?
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AvObserver
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:07 am

Sadly, I don't see the MRJ being very successful. It seems to have aimed at the right market targets but I think it will be overwhelmed by Boeing backed Embraer. It's been so long since there was a dedicated Japanese civil airliner program their industry has had to relearn much of how to do one, despite subcontracting work on other programs. The aircraft itself looks promising but will there be enough confidence in it for airlines to take a risk on it? Maybe if Airbus were to acquire it to complement the A220 but I doubt Airbus has any interest since its larger variant might partly impact sales of the A220-100, despite the range disparity. Mitsubishi's deep pockets may slowly help it gain acceptance over time but it's hard to imagine it competing with the E-jets on an even footing unless it were to be acquired by Airbus, an unlikely scenario I think.
 
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keesje
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:19 am

Theoretically the MRJ's would nicely fit under the A220. The gap in capability between A220-100 and MRJ70 seems significant.

Image

The MRJ totally overlaps with the CRJ700 and CRJ900. It would most likely mean an end to the CRJ production / focus on CRJ aftermarket support. There are still 60 CRJ variants in the backlog. And the CRJ would probably need an expensive upgrade (re-engine) to recover.

Question is if Airbus would be willing to invest time / money in this program, for now they are busy enough with the A220. They would probably need the Canadians, the BBD / CRJ people and after market infra structure to adopt the MRJ program. A mainly Canadian-Japanese program under Airbus flag.. Question is if this would provide enough value for Mitsubishi now the development work has been done. Production would probably be mainly in Japan.

Image
.
FlyHappy wrote:
keesje wrote:
I have some confidence that it is actually a well engineering high quality aircaft, although I have little info to justify this.


we have a full century of quality engineering history to justify it. A major Japanese industrial effort is not going to put out substandard crap. late, over budget, non impactful - yes. but not crap.


That's my unsubstantiated feeling. The radical redesign after first flights seem to confirm little compromise on quality. But still, I have little evidence.
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parapente
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:55 am

If the MRJ70 fits within the US scope clause what's the problem? Or is that too small an aircaft for US requirements?
 
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keesje
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:15 am

parapente wrote:
If the MRJ70 fits within the US scope clause what's the problem? Or is that too small an aircaft for US requirements?


It seems a lack of confidence in the program.

Remarkably SkyWest sat on both the biggest MRJ order (100) and the single E175-E2 order (100), both placed long ago. Recently they cancelled the 175-E2 order. https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2018-10-30/embraer-removes-100-unit-skywest-order-e2-backlog . I suspect the MRJ orders is also more in the LOI category if conditions would be public.

Looking at it, the slight stretch of the E175-E2 (1 row) movied it slightly over the scope clause weight limit, creating problems. Zero orders left for the E175-E2, while the E175-E1 has been quiet successful. Looking at it from that angle the MRJ joining the Embraer/Boeing portfolio might be an option too. It would sit under the more successful 190-E2 and E195-E2..

But personally I think Boeing will push (pay) to ensure a fully scope clause compliantE175-E2, or how ever they'll name it. Instead of starting another adventure with the MHI MRJ family. E175-E2 and MRJ90 seems very similar in capabilities looking at their specifications. MRJ has cargo hold in the aft cabin.

Image

Bjorn looked at it a few years ago: https://leehamnews.com/2015/11/13/bjorns-corner-mrj90-first-flight/
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Flyglobal
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:32 am

In the case that Airbus really would take interest in the proram and Mitsubishi Skillsets, then in Conjunction with other activities for Airbus and some Outlook of Airbus enhanced sales in Japan. Same as with the A787 wing production JAL and ANA bought 'tons' of 787s.

Flyglobal
 
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keesje
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:48 am

Flyglobal wrote:
In the case that Airbus really would take interest in the proram and Mitsubishi Skillsets, then in Conjunction with other activities for Airbus and some Outlook of Airbus enhanced sales in Japan. Same as with the A787 wing production JAL and ANA bought 'tons' of 787s.

Flyglobal


I think both MHI & Airbus/BBD have all skills required. This seems a more strategic game. Airbus friend Tony Fernandes is also in the game and Mitsubishi threw in an additional 1.9 Billion to keep things moving & show it's commitment.. For Fernandes/ AirAsia it is mainly a tool to get access to Japans domestic markets. He wants to make friends.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Global-Management-Forum-2018/AirAsia-considers-buying-Mitsubishi-s-delay-plagued-jet
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:50 am

A nice flagship for Japanese industry, but commercially it's hard to see how it can compete, especially as Japan is an expensive country to build in, and the Japanese domestic market not large enough to support it.
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:07 pm

georgiabill wrote:
I for one was somewhat surprised that Boeing and Mitsubishi did not form agreement in regards to the aviation sector of Mitsubishi businesses based on previous deals between the companies. I would not be surprised if Mitsubishi will be involved with the 797 program if launched.


They have a lot of capacity because they didn't get as much of the 787 as they were hoping (and thus expanded to) get. Unfortunately for them, I think the vertical integration bug that is going on in Boeing's leadership will mean they get snubbed on the 797. That doesn't mean they won't get some work that gets sub contracted out from other higher tier suppliers in the US. I just don't think they'll get any engineering.
 
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keesje
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:50 am

trpmb6 wrote:
georgiabill wrote:
I for one was somewhat surprised that Boeing and Mitsubishi did not form agreement in regards to the aviation sector of Mitsubishi businesses based on previous deals between the companies. I would not be surprised if Mitsubishi will be involved with the 797 program if launched.


They have a lot of capacity because they didn't get as much of the 787 as they were hoping (and thus expanded to) get. Unfortunately for them, I think the vertical integration bug that is going on in Boeing's leadership will mean they get snubbed on the 797. That doesn't mean they won't get some work that gets sub contracted out from other higher tier suppliers in the US. I just don't think they'll get any engineering.


Bombardier got snubbed by Boeing too, leading to the raise of the A220 afterall. You have to honor your business partners.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:07 pm

I don't think that Airbus will get a deal like they got on the A220.
For MHI, there is also little merit in selling the program at this stage.
I think that both Airbus and Boeing are very scared of the MRJ because MAC is probably building an amazing aircraft that even A&B can't match with their offerings in terms of reliability. The Japanese have a focus and discipline for quality and support that is difficult to match and Airbus and Boeing's products just have so many little flaws. They have less flaws compared to other aircraft programs, but it's hard to find a commercial aircraft that doesn't need daily attention.
If this is then reflected in a nextgen narrowbody program, they could be toast and they know it.

About the US scope clauses.
First of all, the difference between the MR70 and MR90 is 2 rows of seats, ie 8 seats. The OEW will probably be 1.3tons lighter on the MR70.
If the MR90 manages to clock in at 26 tons OEW, at a derated MTOW of 86.000lbs, the useful load is no less than 13 tons.
At this reduced weight, the fuel burn for the MR90 will be about 1. 3 tons per hour.
So even at a full 8 tons payload, it's 4 hours of still air range without winds and reserves, or about 2000km with winds and reserves.
The MR70 would add about an hour of useable range to 2800km.

This is verifyable with the current published weights but is all conditional on the MRJ achieving its targeted OEW.

I think that in their scope clause calculations, airlines are omitting the fact that this aircraft is going to burn a lot less fuel per hour of flight and that this will give it the legs to fly most missions under scope clauses.

I think that airlines will take both MR70/MR90 variants depending on the mission they need them for. For flights shorter than 2 hours, the MR90 works whereas longer flights will need the MR70.
So I think that everyone is biting their nails waiting for the final OEW's at certification.

These aircraft will match the turboprops in fuel burn, burning about 80% more fuel per hour while cruising 80% faster, so if they can excell in reliability, they will have a market.
 
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:16 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
I don't think that Airbus will get a deal like they got on the A220.
For MHI, there is also little merit in selling the program at this stage.
I think that both Airbus and Boeing are very scared of the MRJ because MAC is probably building an amazing aircraft that even A&B can't match with their offerings in terms of reliability. The Japanese have a focus and discipline for quality and support that is difficult to match and Airbus and Boeing's products just have so many little flaws. They have less flaws compared to other aircraft programs, but it's hard to find a commercial aircraft that doesn't need daily attention.
If this is then reflected in a nextgen narrowbody program, they could be toast and they know it.

If the MRJ is an example of focus and discipline on quality and support than the Japanese have a long way to go when it comes to beating Airbus/Boeing quality/support. Just look up some of the reasons why the plane has been delayed.

Don’t assume that just because it is Japanese it automatically equals superior quality.
 
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:02 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
I don't think that Airbus will get a deal like they got on the A220.
For MHI, there is also little merit in selling the program at this stage.
I think that both Airbus and Boeing are very scared of the MRJ because MAC is probably building an amazing aircraft that even A&B can't match with their offerings in terms of reliability. The Japanese have a focus and discipline for quality and support that is difficult to match and Airbus and Boeing's products just have so many little flaws. They have less flaws compared to other aircraft programs, but it's hard to find a commercial aircraft that doesn't need daily attention.
If this is then reflected in a nextgen narrowbody program, they could be toast and they know it.

Care to repeat that with a straight face to the families of the dead and injured from Toyota's unintended accelerations?

The Japanese used to have a great reputation for quality (support was another issue); however, this has dropped lately (and competition have drastically caught up on the Japanese).

Back to the MRJ: while this plane looks great and might be a game changer, MHI has screwed this program up so badly it's not even funny. With about another year until EIS, they are still not ready to support the plane with simple things that should already be ready by now.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:16 pm

MHI has learned that it is extremely difficult to break into the aircraft OEM industry. There's just so much intrinsic knowledge entrenched in the big OEMs to really compete at the same level. They've learned. If they can keep financial backing their next program will be more successful. The question is if the market will really deem it necessary or not.
 
parapente
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:28 pm

Now that Embraer appear to have moved up a market segment (E2) it appears ( am no expert at all) that they ( MRJ) have a little niche All to themselves other than older products.Certainly Bombardier 220 is far too big.So perhaps this aircaft will do ok.
Hope it does as is a nice looking aircraft.
 
superjeff
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:07 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
I still believe the MRJ is prefect for HA to replace the 717. It's deliberately designed to have a much shorter range than the A220 and E2 so on paper it'd be way more efficient on interisland routes. Since Mitsubishi redesigned the hold, does anyone know of it can carry an adequate amount of surfboards?


Sounds cool, but, honestly, they're not carrying that many surfboards inter-island.
 
smartplane
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:59 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
I don't think that Airbus will get a deal like they got on the A220.
For MHI, there is also little merit in selling the program at this stage.
I think that both Airbus and Boeing are very scared of the MRJ because MAC is probably building an amazing aircraft that even A&B can't match with their offerings in terms of reliability. The Japanese have a focus and discipline for quality and support that is difficult to match and Airbus and Boeing's products just have so many little flaws. They have less flaws compared to other aircraft programs, but it's hard to find a commercial aircraft that doesn't need daily attention.
If this is then reflected in a nextgen narrowbody program, they could be toast and they know it.

Unless they are switching engine maker, I'm not sure your reliability predictions are correct. Also, are they buying in end user customer support too, because that will need investment too.

Their next hurdle is engine supply. Engine OEM's seek financial commitments at least 3 years out based on predicted requirements, pro rata discounted from actual engines supplied.

Crystal ball gazing, presumably Airbus has committed to 99% of PW small jet engine production, and probably required 110%. Unless Mitsubishi are going to switch engine OEM's, the aircraft will be niche, at the end of the spectrum which should be high volume.

EADS and Mitsubishi Aerospace might acquire equity in each other or via a joint venture intermediary. Boeing less likely, because still widespread dissatisfaction with onerous and low margin 748 and 787 component contracts, not only amongst suppliers, but also their bankers (Boeing have alienated a lot of suppliers in the last decade, meaning they have to take in house / buy out suppliers).
 
mham001
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:27 pm

trpmb6 wrote:

They have a lot of capacity because they didn't get as much of the 787 as they were hoping (and thus expanded to) get. Unfortunately for them, I think the vertical integration bug that is going on in Boeing's leadership will mean they get snubbed on the 797. That doesn't mean they won't get some work that gets sub contracted out from other higher tier suppliers in the US. I just don't think they'll get any engineering.


They got the wings, what more did Mitsubishi expect?

A new collaboration was announced 3 days ago between Boeing and Japan Inc. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Compan ... ric-planes
 
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keesje
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:18 pm

Waterbomber wrote:
First of all, the difference between the MR70 and MR90 is 2 rows of seats, ie 8 seats. The OEW will probably be 1.3tons lighter on the MR70.
.


Didn't see that. It's 2.4m / 90 inch so three row 12 seats. Still on the low site for 2 versions. Probably aimed at specific scope clauses. The E175 and MRJ70 have nearly identical specs.

mham001 wrote :

A new collaboration was announced 3 days ago between Boeing and Japan Inc. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Compan ... ric-planes


Reading it, it seems R&D, funding and politics weigh in heavily. Not like outsourcing the 797 wing.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:33 pm

MHI was hoping for some of the fuselage barrels IRC.

In the most general statement I can make, vertical integration is driving a big portion of what will happen with the 797. I'll leave it at that.
 
mham001
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:46 pm

keesje wrote:

Reading it, it seems R&D, funding and politics weigh in heavily. Not like outsourcing the 797 wing.


If I were Mitsubishi, I would have put that thought out of my mind long ago. Boeing already has the space and the know how in-house.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:35 am

keesje wrote:
Theoretically the MRJ's would nicely fit under the A220. The gap in capability between A220-100 and MRJ70 seems significant.

The MRJ totally overlaps with the CRJ700 and CRJ900. It would most likely mean an end to the CRJ production / focus on CRJ aftermarket support. There are still 60 CRJ variants in the backlog. And the CRJ would probably need an expensive upgrade (re-engine) to recover.

Question is if Airbus would be willing to invest time / money in this program, for now they are busy enough with the A220. They would probably need the Canadians, the BBD / CRJ people and after market infra structure to adopt the MRJ program. A mainly Canadian-Japanese program under Airbus flag.. Question is if this would provide enough value for Mitsubishi now the development work has been done. Production would probably be mainly in Japan.
.


Mitsubishi is already working with Boeing on the MRJ. It would be very strange to have them switch strategies and have a combination of Airbus and Bombardier invest in the MRJ. I think you are either in fantasy land or unaware that’s the Boeing/Mitsubishi partnership already includes the MRJ

Newbiepilot wrote:
c933103 wrote:
georgiabill wrote:
I for one was somewhat surprised that Boeing and Mitsubishi did not form agreement in regards to the aviation sector of Mitsubishi businesses based on previous deals between the companies. I would not be surprised if Mitsubishi will be involved with the 797 program if launched.

Mitsubishi cannot offer Boeing what they would want even if they want to reach some cooperation agreement


Mitsubishi did contract with Boeing

LE BOURGET, France, June 22, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation and Boeing (NYSE: BA) announced a partnership today at the Paris Air Show for Boeing to provide customer support services for the Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ) family of regional commercial jets.

"We are pleased to announce we have concluded an agreement with Boeing for MRJ customer support as the Mitsubishi Regional Jet sets the new standard for next- generation regional jets truly suited for the 21st century," said Hideo Egawa, president, Mitsubishi Aircraft. "With this agreement, Mitsubishi Aircraft will be able to deliver profit-enhancing support and a competitive boost to our customers. We are confident that this agreement will further strengthen the relationship between our two companies."

Boeing Commercial Aviation Services will provide Mitsubishi Aircraft with 24/7 customer support including spare parts provisioning, service operations and field services. It will allow Mitsubishi to focus on launching its business as it works with Boeing to create a world-class services operation that Mitsubishi may bring in house in the future.


https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2011-06-22 ... d-Services
 
Dash9
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:01 am

I'm speculating on a scenario here:
BBD commercial (CRJ) is folded into the Airbus / BBD joint venture. Now that the Q400 is gone there is no conflicts with Airbus/ATR.
MRJ joins the Airbus / BBD JV.
AB/BBD JV closes the CRJ line and focus on supporting the existing fleet.
BBD helps the MRJ get to certification. It also drops the its court actions.
AB/BBD JV Mirabel CRJ FAL transitions to building the MRJ alongside the Japanese FAL.
Airbus provides supply chain mgmt and sales. BBD pitch in with sale and product support as they have the relation with the regionals, the service center, etc.
Money moves around these 3 to the extent of what each contribute / gain / risks.

Your thoughts?
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:16 am

Dash9 wrote:
I'm speculating on a scenario here:
BBD commercial (CRJ) is folded into the Airbus / BBD joint venture. Now that the Q400 is gone there is no conflicts with Airbus/ATR.
MRJ joins the Airbus / BBD JV.
AB/BBD JV closes the CRJ line and focus on supporting the existing fleet.
BBD helps the MRJ get to certification. It also drops the its court actions.
AB/BBD JV Mirabel CRJ FAL transitions to building the MRJ alongside the Japanese FAL.
Airbus provides supply chain mgmt and sales. BBD pitch in with sale and product support as they have the relation with the regionals, the service center, etc.
Money moves around these 3 to the extent of what each contribute / gain / risks.

Your thoughts?


My thoughts are that Mitsubishi is already working with Boeing, which would all have to unravel before your second step could happen

The partnership with Boeing is essential," said Hisakazu Mizutani, president of Mitsubishi Aircraft. The regional jet business that Boeing acquires from Embraer is a direct competitor of the MRJ. Shareholders of Boeing and Embraer may take issue with assisting a rival.

Mizutani said he was relieved to hear from a Boeing executive he met in June that the company can "promise" that full support will continue. "We want to continue our good relationship," the Boeing executive told Mizutani at an industry event in Sydney.


https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Busine ... Mitsubishi

Unless the courts cause Boeing and Mitsubishi to split, I don’t see Boeing splitting with Mitsubishi on the MRJ in a way where Mitsubishi can turn around and work with Airbus in a joint venture. I would expect some type of contractual language prohibiting Mitsubishi from doing that after they have been working together for years since Mitsubishi has likely had access to Boeing intellectual property.

It is not impossible, but doesn’t seem all that likely
 
brindabella
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:10 am

keesje wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
First of all, the difference between the MR70 and MR90 is 2 rows of seats, ie 8 seats. The OEW will probably be 1.3tons lighter on the MR70.
.


Didn't see that. It's 2.4m / 90 inch so three row 12 seats. Still on the low site for 2 versions. Probably aimed at specific scope clauses. The E175 and MRJ70 have nearly identical specs.

mham001 wrote :

A new collaboration was announced 3 days ago between Boeing and Japan Inc. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Compan ... ric-planes


Reading it, it seems R&D, funding and politics weigh in heavily. Not like outsourcing the 797 wing
.


Just read it also.

Sorry Keesje, IMHO there is Buckley's chance of a tie-up between AB & MAC.

(Buckley's chance - a saying here in Oz meaning "the chance is between tiny and invisible". :D ).

cheers
Billy
 
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keesje
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:36 am

Nice words & formalities between MHI, Boeing and both government agency’s.The proof is in the pudding, e.g. both MRJ and E2 fighting to bag a 200 aircaft contract at a US regional, and Boeing needs to build some E2 backlog. But the Japanese even more, and it gets real tense.. and politicians are still around. Twitter throwing oil.

Image

Nobody is smiling & handshaking any more and the Japanese graciously withdraw.. Ugly.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
parapente
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:32 am

Others are clearly far better read on this subject.But its hard to see how MRJ's origonal 'partnership' with Boeing ( which goes back many years ) can continue as they now effectively own it's only rival - unless they have absolutly no choice in the matter.
Pairing up with Airbus does seem to be the more logical choice ( now).Cant see any legal aspects getting in the way now that Boeing effectively own Embraer/E2.
But looks messy.I wonder what have happened if the MRJ EIS had been more ' on time' and had ( say) entered service a year ago.
 
Waterbomber
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:32 am

keesje wrote:
Nice words & formalities between MHI, Boeing and both government agency’s.The proof is in the pudding, e.g. both MRJ and E2 fighting to bag a 200 aircaft contract at a US regional, and Boeing needs to build some E2 backlog. But the Japanese even more, and it gets real tense.. and politicians are still around. Twitter throwing oil.

Image

Nobody is smiling & handshaking any more and the Japanese graciously withdraw.. Ugly.


You are right about the 3 rows, I was looking at old pre-launch specs. So I correct that, the rest remains the same.

What are you describing in the above post?
Things to come or a live feed?
I don't know if the Japanese would respectfully withdraw. There is great respect between MHI and Boeing and it was Boeing's decision to go after the MRJ's market.
I think that there won't be any withdrawals, just strong competition and the customer making the final decision.
Japan has evolved and there is a lot of the same me-first mentality that we can see in the Western world.

In the end, the E2 is just another partnership for Boeing, just as much as other projects such as the B787 are. I think that in terms of value, the B787 partnership with the Japanese has a higher value and return for Boeing than any potential E175-E2 sales.

I also wonder whether the Boeing support contract for the MRJ will be renewed by MAC.
After all, there is a benefit for both to keep the contract going. When things become manageable, MAC could take it in-house but pre-EIS this involves risk.

I think that the MRJ is in a tough spot competing against a Boeing offering, but a lot depends on the final product. If the final product is reliable and good, more reliable than the competition, there will be demand. That's what it's all about.

Also as I said previously, I think that PW will be more aggressive on MRJ campaigns, as it would keep more doors open for PW powered A320neos.

Production cost concerns have been enounced above. Japan does not have cheap labor but it's also not more expensive compared to Europe or North America. Brazil probably scores better though.
What is more of a concern is supplier costs, which is not easy to manage for such a small OEM, even of they already collaborate with many suppliers on military programs.

A word or two about the botched program.
Yes, the MRJ management have botched a part of the program, underestimating some certification requirements or discovering new ones late in the process forcing some redesign. But you have to put things in perspective, ie they got some things wrong, but they got most things right starting with the important ones and this is impressive for a manufacturer which has no experience building and certifying whole commercial aircraft.
Let's also not forget how Boeing/Airbus botched programs in recent years despite being the ones setting the standards.
Yes, the MRJ is late and could probably be later, missing commercial opportunities in the market.
But to MAC, this is more than just selling as many airplanes as possible. It's about catching up, overtaking and setting new standards. To the point that customers start begging them to build bigger planes.
That's what they're after.
 
smartplane
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:50 am

Waterbomber wrote:
But to MAC, this is more than just selling as many airplanes as possible. It's about catching up, overtaking and setting new standards. To the point that customers start begging them to build bigger planes.
That's what they're after.

If it's not a commercial success, technical competence is an irrelevance.

The VFW/Fokker partnership and Dassault said much the same about the 614 and Mercure respectively.

The success paradigm has shifted at this end of the market. If you can't sell and deliver hundreds of units a year, economies of scale enjoyed by a larger physical competitor (for example the A220), may end up making the larger aircraft cheaper to purchase (not to operate).

Clearly Boeing is now a conflicted friend. Conflicted friends, when business and money are involved, find it extremely difficult to behave like friends. MAC needs to set a new course.
 
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keesje
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:31 pm

smartplane wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
But to MAC, this is more than just selling as many airplanes as possible. It's about catching up, overtaking and setting new standards. To the point that customers start begging them to build bigger planes.
That's what they're after.

If it's not a commercial success, technical competence is an irrelevance.

The VFW/Fokker partnership and Dassault said much the same about the 614 and Mercure respectively.

The success paradigm has shifted at this end of the market. If you can't sell and deliver hundreds of units a year, economies of scale enjoyed by a larger physical competitor (for example the A220), may end up making the larger aircraft cheaper to purchase (not to operate).

Clearly Boeing is now a conflicted friend. Conflicted friends, when business and money are involved, find it extremely difficult to behave like friends. MAC needs to set a new course.


I guess BBD and Embraer concluded you need a big friend with deep pockets to convince big customers to commit billions and company strategy to your products. If things go wrong in terms of delivery times, reliability, AD's etc. Boeing and Airbus can put strong teams on it, reshuffle backlogs, pay compensation and get (big) technical problems solved with global airworthiness authorities.

They will ensure PIP's are financed, the supply chain keeps honest on pricing and new versions and enhancements will appear over the years. The aftermarket will invest, pilot training set up globally, using proven people, processes and facilities. That creates confidence MHI (and apparently even BBD and Embraer) can't provide (enough), regardless how good their products are.

E.g. Boeing Global Support indrastructure:

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:23 pm

The MRJ has less range performance than the E2s and A220s. In addition, the E2 only really overlaps in size with the smaller MRJ.

There's much less overlap with the A220, so in "product portfolio" terms, Airbus going for it (and, given the MRJ has the same seat widths as the A220, means there's a lot of consistency) makes some sense. But if Boeing wanted to get in with the MRJ that wouldn't really overlap with the E2 that much either.

The MRJ is much less flexible than the E2, and only slightly more comfortable.

To an extent I think the MRJ won't be slaughtered by the E2 or A220/CS because the MRJ is a true regional jet and not a "mini mainline" jet. But we live in an era of fleet consolidation where airlines are trying to have the smallest number of families of jets, so this may work against it.

I think the MRJ is a very sexy plane, but will it sell that much? Not to mention the looming legal DOOOOOOM is putting people off it.
 
AirbusA6
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:05 pm

smartplane wrote:
Waterbomber wrote:
But to MAC, this is more than just selling as many airplanes as possible. It's about catching up, overtaking and setting new standards. To the point that customers start begging them to build bigger planes.
That's what they're after.

If it's not a commercial success, technical competence is an irrelevance.

The VFW/Fokker partnership and Dassault said much the same about the 614 and Mercure respectively.

The success paradigm has shifted at this end of the market. If you can't sell and deliver hundreds of units a year, economies of scale enjoyed by a larger physical competitor (for example the A220), may end up making the larger aircraft cheaper to purchase (not to operate).

Clearly Boeing is now a conflicted friend. Conflicted friends, when business and money are involved, find it extremely difficult to behave like friends. MAC needs to set a new course.


Or indeed the more recent Fairchild Dornier 728...
it's the bus to stansted (now renamed National Express a6 to ruin my username)
 
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keesje
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Re: Mitsubishi MRJ, going alone against Boeing/Embraer?

Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:57 pm

StudiodeKadent wrote:
I think the MRJ is a very sexy plane, but will it sell that much? Not to mention the looming legal DOOOOOOM is putting people off it.


Not really a leading consideration, but Airbus/BBD can solve that..

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/mitsubishi-aircraft-seeks-to-have-bombardier-lawsuit-454604/
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway

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