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flyguy84
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United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:19 pm

United shares are sharply up in after-market trading as United beats Wall Street estimates on both fourth quarter revenue and profit.

**In December 2018, ordered an additional four Boeing 777-300ER aircraft and 24 737 MAX aircraft.**

For 2019, UAL expects adjusted diluted earnings per share to again grow year-over-year to between $10.00 to $12.00.2

UAL reported fourth-quarter net income of $462 million, diluted earnings per share of $1.70, pre-tax earnings of $556 million and pre-tax margin of 5.3 percent.
UAL reported fourth-quarter adjusted net income of $657 million, adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.41 and adjusted pre-tax earnings of $814 million.
UAL reported fourth-quarter adjusted pre-tax margin of 7.8 percent,1 expanding margin on an adjusted basis of 0.9 points versus the fourth-quarter of 2017.
UAL recovered 98% percent of the year-over-year increase in fuel prices in 2018.
Consolidated fourth-quarter passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) increased 5 percent year-over-year, at the high end of the company's fourth-quarter 2018 guidance range.
Consolidated fourth-quarter unit cost per available seat mile (CASM) increased 7.0 percent year-over-year.
Consolidated fourth-quarter CASM, excluding special charges, third-party business expenses, fuel and profit sharing, decreased 0.7 percent year-over-year.
Employees earned $334 million in profit sharing for 2018.


Image

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/15/united- ... mates.html
https://hub.united.com/united-airlines- ... 98817.html
SFO
 
winginit
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:34 pm

These are great results. Love him or hate him, Scott is excellent at what he does.
 
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STT757
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:16 am

Great job UA! Love that the long rumored additional 77Ws have finally materialized. The additional 737Max are also intriguing, 9, 10 or something new like the 8 or 7 Max?
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LHUSA
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:30 am

Very solid results! Well done United. Glad to see their controversial, stock-plummeting strategy is now proving successful. Props to Scott for his vision.
 
kiowa
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:26 am

Very nice results United. Well done!
 
wn676
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:29 am

STT757 wrote:
Great job UA! Love that the long rumored additional 77Ws have finally materialized. The additional 737Max are also intriguing, 9, 10 or something new like the 8 or 7 Max?


Wouldn’t be surprised to see some 8s added to the order book.
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kiowa
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:54 am

STT757 wrote:
Great job UA! Love that the long rumored additional 77Ws have finally materialized. The additional 737Max are also intriguing, 9, 10 or something new like the 8 or 7 Max?


We’re the additional 77ws announced before this somewhere or is this new?
 
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piedmontf284000
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:38 am

kiowa wrote:
STT757 wrote:
Great job UA! Love that the long rumored additional 77Ws have finally materialized. The additional 737Max are also intriguing, 9, 10 or something new like the 8 or 7 Max?


We’re the additional 77ws announced before this somewhere or is this new?


In December 2018, UA ordered an additional four Boeing 777-300ER aircraft and 24 737 MAX aircraft
 
hkcanadaexpat
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:18 am

kiowa wrote:
We’re the additional 77ws announced before this somewhere or is this new?

They were reported as Undisclosed Customer in Boeing's December O&D. Purely speculation as to whom they belong to between now and then. Although some United insiders in this forum had indicated for a while that this was happening.
 
Coalways
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:06 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
kiowa wrote:
STT757 wrote:
Great job UA! Love that the long rumored additional 77Ws have finally materialized. The additional 737Max are also intriguing, 9, 10 or something new like the 8 or 7 Max?


We’re the additional 77ws announced before this somewhere or is this new?


In December 2018, UA ordered an additional four Boeing 777-300ER aircraft and 24 737 MAX aircraft


Will this bring the total 777 count to 95?
 
TWFlyGuy
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:57 pm

Adding Kirby seems to have been very beneficial to UAL and to AA's detriment. Seems he was more the brains than Doug.
 
UAL777UK
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:20 pm

Great job UA. Nice figures. Nice to see more 77Ws coming in.
 
ShinyAndChrome
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:52 pm

Didn't get to hear the entire thing but UA isn't putting a price tag on the government shutdown just yet. It'll be interesting to see if AA puts an estimate out on their call (or if the government's even open by then)
Last edited by ShinyAndChrome on Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
9w748capt
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:00 pm

Wow. Good job UA - hell of a recovery since the Dao debacle. OTOH how the heck does Dougie still have a job?
 
jetmatt777
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:49 pm

9w748capt wrote:
Wow. Good job UA - hell of a recovery since the Dao debacle. OTOH how the heck does Dougie still have a job?


I think you meant to say recovery since the Jeff Smisek debacle.
 
Alias1024
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:51 pm

I’ll be interested to hear the commentary on Pacific markets during the conference call tomorrow. Not just for the comparison to DLs commentary, but whether they are seeing any softening in China demand/pricing.
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United1
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:27 pm

Alias1024 wrote:
I’ll be interested to hear the commentary on Pacific markets during the conference call tomorrow. Not just for the comparison to DLs commentary, but whether they are seeing any softening in China demand/pricing.


Reading through the conference call slide deck they are pointing out UA is seeing a strong premium cabin demand from China, Japan and Korea. I think yields in the back are still trash but seems like UA is navigating through all of that fairly well.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
FSDan
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:54 pm

United1 wrote:
Alias1024 wrote:
I’ll be interested to hear the commentary on Pacific markets during the conference call tomorrow. Not just for the comparison to DLs commentary, but whether they are seeing any softening in China demand/pricing.


Reading through the conference call slide deck they are pointing out UA is seeing a strong premium cabin demand from China, Japan and Korea. I think yields in the back are still trash but seems like UA is navigating through all of that fairly well.


Given the recent leaked info we saw regarding UA's Bay Area contracts, it seems like UA probably has plenty of high value traffic to bolster their Pacific network, particularly at SFO. With AA out of ORD-China at least temporarily, UA has probably seen a bump there too. Not too much competition in EWR-Asia (sure, there's indirect competition from JFK, but there's also a distinct Northern Jersey market that UA has mostly to themselves, along with added catchment from Philly)... If any Pacific route is a struggle for UA, I'd guess it would be LAX-PVG.
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intotheair
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:26 am

Alias1024 wrote:
I’ll be interested to hear the commentary on Pacific markets during the conference call tomorrow. Not just for the comparison to DLs commentary, but whether they are seeing any softening in China demand/pricing.


The call was today. You can listen to it on UA's investor site. Seeking Alpha also has a transcript if you register for a free account, and it's pretty good aside from some annoying transcription errors (Dulles always appearing as Dallas, no distinction between RASM and CASM...)

Here's what Andrew Nocella said about Asia Pacific:

Following two years of very strong Atlantic PRASM growth, we saw Q4 PRASM growth of more moderate 1.6%. Passenger load factor was strong, increasing 5.2 points year-over-year. However, that increase was not large enough to offset declining close yields.

Our outlook continues to show coach yield weakness, and as a result, slower PRASM growth with the Atlantic in the coming months. PRASM across the Pacific was up 4.5% year over year in Q4, our third quarter positive for PRASM.

We continue to watch demand levels in business class for China play and have yet to see any reduction in demand for January, resulting from these trade disputes. After negative PRASM growth in Q2 and Q3 of 2018, Latin performance inflected sharply positive, increasing 3.8% in the fourth quarter. We are optimistic about strong PRASM from the Latin region, even with continued weakness in Brazil and Argentina.

Looking ahead, we anticipate first quarter consolidated system PRASM to be flat to up 3% year-over-year. The shift of Easter holiday to mid-April is expected to be an 80 basis point headwind for Q1, with an equal tailwind for Q2. As we look at the revenue environment, the primary change we observed is pricing across the Atlantic.


There wasn't a whole lot else in the conference call that was particularly surprising, though these few nuggets caught my eye:

Retirements of 757s and A320s to begin
60 planes to get Polaris in 2019
Phase 2 of transferring aircraft from EWR to IAD happening now through 2019
Kirby: expect 787-10s to replace older, less efficient aircraft (I presume he’s talking about 767s?)
None of them committed to reducing the net count of RJs overall, but they promised to continue getting the 'right balance' of mainline and RJs and making sure mainline markets "more often" see mainline jets.
300 319 320 321 332 333 345 346 380 717 733 734 735 73G 738 739 744 752 753 762 763 772 77W 788 789 CR2 CR7 CR9 CRK Q400 E175 DC10 MD82 MD90
AA AF AS AY AZ B6 BA BR DL F9 FI GA HA KF LH MI QX SK SN SQ UA US VY WN
 
FSDan
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:33 am

intotheair wrote:
Kirby: expect 787-10s to replace older, less efficient aircraft (I presume he’s talking about 767s?)


Could also be referring to some or all of the domestic 777-200s. The 787-10 could be a good replacement for that aircraft from a capacity and range perspective.
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Okcflyer
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Re: United Fourth Quarter/2018 Earnings

Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:12 am

FSDan wrote:
intotheair wrote:
Kirby: expect 787-10s to replace older, less efficient aircraft (I presume he’s talking about 767s?)


Could also be referring to some or all of the domestic 777-200s. The 787-10 could be a good replacement for that aircraft from a capacity and range perspective.


Has to be the 767’s not receiving Polaris.

I wonder if there is a hanger queen or two A320 or a couple coming up for an intense C check. All have quite some cycles and hours left after the latest round of life extensions and seem to be in good shape these days.

For me, it’s pretty clear the high-J Polaris 767’s will pick up some EWR-LAX/SFO flying as the p.s. 757’s go for scraping. I suspect Delta will be fairly aggressive with bidding for those engines and associated parts

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