kwp302
Posts: 73
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:59 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:00 am

tnair1974 wrote:
kwp302 wrote:
tnair1974 wrote:
UA will pull the plug on CVG-SFO in early January 2020 just after the end of the Christmas/New Years rush.

But customers in northern Kentucky/Cincinnati will still have both DL and F9 on this route.


Any chance UA launches SDF-SFO? Less competition but similar catchment area


I wonder that SDF-SFO may be a little too long and thin for even a UA A319. Wouldn't mind being wrong, though. AA's SDF-LAX seems to be doing better than expected, although I have not heard about their overall loads (and yields).

Maybe United Express SDF-SFO might succeed, as they have relatively long flights such as MSN-SFO and from time to time STL-SFO on E75 jets. But would SDF-SFO cause the E75 to take a payload hit, especially with strong headwinds going west?


MSN - SFO : 1,772 mi
STL - SFO : 1,735 mi
SDF - SFO : 1,990 mi
 
Jshank83
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:32 am

kwp302 wrote:
tnair1974 wrote:
kwp302 wrote:

Any chance UA launches SDF-SFO? Less competition but similar catchment area


I wonder that SDF-SFO may be a little too long and thin for even a UA A319. Wouldn't mind being wrong, though. AA's SDF-LAX seems to be doing better than expected, although I have not heard about their overall loads (and yields).

Maybe United Express SDF-SFO might succeed, as they have relatively long flights such as MSN-SFO and from time to time STL-SFO on E75 jets. But would SDF-SFO cause the E75 to take a payload hit, especially with strong headwinds going west?


MSN - SFO : 1,772 mi
STL - SFO : 1,735 mi
SDF - SFO : 1,990 mi


STL-SFO during the winter has asked for 20+ people to get bumped from the flight or it would have to make a fuel stop in SLC at times. This winter they are running mainline for the most part I would guess because of this.
 
kwp302
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Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:59 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:14 pm

Jshank83 wrote:

STL-SFO during the winter has asked for 20+ people to get bumped from the flight or it would have to make a fuel stop in SLC at times. This winter they are running mainline for the most part I would guess because of this.

Yeah it would have to be mainline and I just don’t see UA doing that. They’ve remained stagnant at SDF with only small RJ’s while AA, DL, and the LCC’s have added capacity, routes, and frequencies.
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 388
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:15 am

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:27 pm

kwp302 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:

STL-SFO during the winter has asked for 20+ people to get bumped from the flight or it would have to make a fuel stop in SLC at times. This winter they are running mainline for the most part I would guess because of this.

Yeah it would have to be mainline and I just don’t see UA doing that. They’ve remained stagnant at SDF with only small RJ’s while AA, DL, and the LCC’s have added capacity, routes, and frequencies.


"Actually UA has upgauged on quite a few flights out of SDF on E-170/175. UA also flies NS mainline to LAX and SFO for Derby. In various forums there has been speculation that UA could use a hub/focus op in the Southeastern USA. SDF could be a descent location for a focus operation for UA (75 flights or so). Thoughts?"
 
kwp302
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Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:59 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:36 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
kwp302 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:

STL-SFO during the winter has asked for 20+ people to get bumped from the flight or it would have to make a fuel stop in SLC at times. This winter they are running mainline for the most part I would guess because of this.

Yeah it would have to be mainline and I just don’t see UA doing that. They’ve remained stagnant at SDF with only small RJ’s while AA, DL, and the LCC’s have added capacity, routes, and frequencies.


"Actually UA has upgauged on quite a few flights out of SDF on E-170/175. UA also flies NS mainline to LAX and SFO for Derby. In various forums there has been speculation that UA could use a hub/focus op in the Southeastern USA. SDF could be a descent location for a focus operation for UA (75 flights or so). Thoughts?"


Yeah bumping up to an E170 doesn’t really compare to DL bringing in 738s (and A320/321 soon) and AA adding A319s on several routes. Derby is also an anomaly considering DL flies in 757s. Don’t foresee UA coming even close to making SDF a focus operation unless they have a complete mindset shift. They can hardly keep their (three?) gates staffed as it is.
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 388
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:01 am

kwp302 wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
kwp302 wrote:
Yeah it would have to be mainline and I just don’t see UA doing that. They’ve remained stagnant at SDF with only small RJ’s while AA, DL, and the LCC’s have added capacity, routes, and frequencies.


"Actually UA has upgauged on quite a few flights out of SDF on E-170/175. UA also flies NS mainline to LAX and SFO for Derby. In various forums there has been speculation that UA could use a hub/focus op in the Southeastern USA. SDF could be a descent location for a focus operation for UA (75 flights or so). Thoughts?"


Yeah bumping up to an E170 doesn’t really compare to DL bringing in 738s (and A320/321 soon) and AA adding A319s on several routes. Derby is also an anomaly considering DL flies in 757s. Don’t foresee UA coming even close to making SDF a focus operation unless they have a complete mindset shift. They can hardly keep their (three?) gates staffed as it is.


"E170/175s are pretty comfortable vs the 145's. 3 gates could theoretically run 30 flights. UA might need somewhere to handle ORD traffic while ORD expands its terminals? If UA wanted a larger presence in the Southeast.....SDF is prob at top of list because of location/facilities(ability to expand)/catchment area/economy/tourism and the fact that any other location that might makes sense in Southeast from same criteria....would pose competitive challenges that do not exist at SDF. Am not suggesting a hub...as that is not gonna happen but a focus operation up to 125 daily flights with mix of mainline and regionals that provide Southeast/Midwest/East/West locations other options to fly UA without going thru IAD or ORD. All speculative."
 
tnair1974
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:09 am

kwp302 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:

STL-SFO during the winter has asked for 20+ people to get bumped from the flight or it would have to make a fuel stop in SLC at times. This winter they are running mainline for the most part I would guess because of this.

Yeah it would have to be mainline and I just don’t see UA doing that. They’ve remained stagnant at SDF with only small RJ’s while AA, DL, and the LCC’s have added capacity, routes, and frequencies.


I understand UA has not had routine mainline at SDF since about 9/11 which is somewhat of a surprise.

As an aside, several years ago I by chance noticed on Flight aware a United Ex E75 doing a wintertime nonstop TYS-LAX flight. Probably a college basketball or other sports charter involving University of Tennessee or the likes of a USC or UCLA. Guessing that flight had heavy fuel but only a relatively small payload.

Regarding Louisville, as mentioned I would not mind being proven wrong about UA mainline succeeding on SDF-SFO. I seem to recall MSN-SFO loads on E75s are doing well. Fairly impressive considering MSN is not that far from MKE, MDW and ORD. There was no mention of E75 payload penalties, but it wouldn't be surprising if they mirror STL-SFO issues. But while it's desired for MSN-SFO to switch to an A319, this and the likes of SDF-SFO won't happen until after the MAX issue is finally resolved.

I have relatives in the Louisville area that say DL has been the local favorite for decades (stretch DC-8s during the 1980s). Even with WN and AA asserting their presence, DL is still strong today (all mainline SDF-ATL except during the low season). My relatives were not as surprised that somebody started SDF-LAX. They were more caught off guard AA did it instead of DL or WN. AA at times even had all American Eagle at SDF a few years ago. But I can understand WN having its hands tied with the MAX situation. Also, WN already has nonstops from SDF to PHX, DEN and LAS. I suspect Southwest would be concerned WN SDF-LAX service could siphon traffic from other flights.
 
kwp302
Posts: 73
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:05 am

tnair1974 wrote:
I have relatives in the Louisville area that say DL has been the local favorite for decades (stretch DC-8s during the 1980s). Even with WN and AA asserting their presence, DL is still strong today (all mainline SDF-ATL except during the low season). My relatives were not as surprised that somebody started SDF-LAX. They were more caught off guard AA did it instead of DL or WN. AA at times even had all American Eagle at SDF a few years ago. But I can understand WN having its hands tied with the MAX situation. Also, WN already has nonstops from SDF to PHX, DEN and LAS. I suspect Southwest would be concerned WN SDF-LAX service could siphon traffic from other flights.


From talking to those in the know at the airport, they're pushing hard for DL to BOS and SEA. I'm actually surprised SDF-BOS hasn't been announced yet based on what I've heard.
 
Bluegrass60
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:49 pm

Moxy Airlines might start-up in 2020 with aircraft from Azul (E190) while it waits on A220 deliveries to start in 2021. Moxy strategy is to fly P2P among city pairs that do not have any/much nonstop service today. I would think SDF would be on the list. Moxy could serve former nonstop routes like SDF to: STL, MCI, MKE, CLE, CMH, PIT, BHM, MEM, GSO, RDU, RIC, CRW, TYS....new nonstops to BOS, SEA, SFO (with A220). How many gates are available at SDF for a new entrant? Am thinking maybe 2-3?
 
Bluegrass60
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:35 pm

https://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-New ... California

Article discusses why WN cut-back short-haul flying...and now why it is looking to make a comeback with short-haul flying. Compliments other news reports suggesting WN is looking at other aircraft type (A220 among others). This could bode well for SDF and the return of prior WN nonstops to : STL, BHM and ATL.
 
tnair1974
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:20 pm

kwp302 wrote:
tnair1974 wrote:
I have relatives in the Louisville area that say DL has been the local favorite for decades (stretch DC-8s during the 1980s). Even with WN and AA asserting their presence, DL is still strong today (all mainline SDF-ATL except during the low season). My relatives were not as surprised that somebody started SDF-LAX. They were more caught off guard AA did it instead of DL or WN. AA at times even had all American Eagle at SDF a few years ago. But I can understand WN having its hands tied with the MAX situation. Also, WN already has nonstops from SDF to PHX, DEN and LAS. I suspect Southwest would be concerned WN SDF-LAX service could siphon traffic from other flights.


From talking to those in the know at the airport, they're pushing hard for DL to BOS and SEA. I'm actually surprised SDF-BOS hasn't been announced yet based on what I've heard.


I figure Delta Connection flights would be most likely, especially as DL expands at Logan. Perhaps eventually to DL A220s to BOS (and maybe SEA and/or SLC). As many here know, Delta has had mainline equipment fly SDF-BOS during the Derby the last few years.

Southwest seems less likely, as WN seems to be retrenching a bit from BOS. JetBlue would be nice with A220s (SDF-BOS/JFK) but my hunch is that B6 has bigger fish to fry for the time being. B6 recently dropped CMH, although B6 had heavy competition there.
 
tnair1974
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:32 pm

Not to be left behind, Cape Air will start OWB-BNA this January which will supplement OWB-STL.

I'm pleasantly surprised Allegiant continues OWB-SFD. I figured that when Allegiant started service to EVV, that might be curtains for G4 at OWB.
 
ibthebigd
Posts: 288
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:37 pm

When G4 cut several cities that were close to other station's I was shocked OWB wasn't on the list

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
jplatts
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:34 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
https://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-News/Airline-News/Southwest-testing-short-haul-strategy-in-California

Article discusses why WN cut-back short-haul flying...and now why it is looking to make a comeback with short-haul flying. Compliments other news reports suggesting WN is looking at other aircraft type (A220 among others). This could bode well for SDF and the return of prior WN nonstops to : STL, BHM and ATL.


I agree that WN re-adding SDF-STL nonstop service is a possibility with WN having already re-added other previously discontinued routes out of STL such as STL-CLE, STL-LIT, and STL-SLC. WN also would be able to offer 1-stop connections to more destinations from STL than it did when it last operated STL-SDF nonstop service.

Even though WN previously operated SDF-BHM nonstop service, WN is unlikely to re-add SDF-BHM nonstop service as most of WN's remaining point-to-point nonstop routes are to WN stations bigger than SDF and BHM (notable exceptions being BOI-GEG nonstop service, PBI-ISP nonstop service, point-to-point nonstop routes out of RSW to the Midwest and Northeast, and interisland Hawaii nonstop routes).
 
kwp302
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 11, 2019 3:13 am

Bluegrass60 wrote:
How many gates are available at SDF for a new entrant? Am thinking maybe 2-3?

A4,6,8,11,10 and B5,7,9 (I think those are the right ones) are all on a “per turn” basis. It would depend on the new entrant’s schedule because most days every gate is in use during the morning rush but then there are several that sit empty all the way until the evening rush.
 
kwp302
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 11, 2019 3:32 am

Just noticed that AA last week went back to daily operations on the flight to LAX. Had been running 6 days a week with Monday night/Tuesday morning being the off day.

Also, 2x daily mainline to DFW started last week but it appears to end in December with only CRJ9s during the winter months. Kinda odd to add another mainline for such a short period of time
 
tnair1974
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:03 am

kwp302 wrote:
Just noticed that AA last week went back to daily operations on the flight to LAX. Had been running 6 days a week with Monday night/Tuesday morning being the off day.

Also, AA has occasionally subbed A321s for SDF-LAX. Is the extra capacity needed at times, or do the A321s just happen to be handy backup equipment?

Seems at least some of the AA A321s have been NEOs (if the likes of Flightaware are correct). Nice!

kwp302 wrote:
Also, 2x daily mainline to DFW started last week but it appears to end in December with only CRJ9s during the winter months. Kinda odd to add another mainline for such a short period of time


The abrupt changes (going from one mainline to briefly two then zero) are a little puzzling. Even when considering January and February are obviously the low season for the Mid-South. But another big factor could be that the MAX is currently scheduled to remain grounded until March 2020 at the earliest. Thus mainline equipment might be needed to cover for the MAX elsewhere.

Other than the current AA mainline flights DFW-SDF/CVG, too bad DFW-SDF is otherwise stuck with lowly Mesa :irked: while DFW-CVG at least gets Envoy E70s. DFW-LEX is all E70s. DFW-TYS/CHA is a mix of Eagle affiliate carriers (plus summer mainline at TYS) including some Envoy E70s. DFW-BNA/MEM may be mainly AA mainline, but at least they otherwise have some Envoy E70 service amongst the Eagle flights.
 
kwp302
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 12, 2019 4:10 am

tnair1974 wrote:
Also, AA has occasionally subbed A321s for SDF-LAX. Is the extra capacity needed at times, or do the A321s just happen to be handy backup equipment?

Seems at least some of the AA A321s have been NEOs (if the likes of Flightaware are correct). Nice!


On the LAX route, a swap for a 321 is usually due to a 319 not being available for whatever reason. The same crew can fly either one. Load factors aren’t high enough right now to put a larger aircraft on the route regularly. N161AA was the most recent 321. It flew in Friday morning and was running about 2 hours behind so it definitely seemed like a last minute swap due to technical issues. And yes, there’s been a couple of the NEOs.

However, there’s been some swaps to 321 and 738 on the DFW route and those have had high load factors (definitely more occupied seats than the scheduled 319 capacity). It usually coincides with a Mesa flight being extremely delayed and/or cancelled, so mainline is likely picking up slack.
 
tnair1974
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:19 am

kwp302 wrote:
tnair1974 wrote:
Also, AA has occasionally subbed A321s for SDF-LAX. Is the extra capacity needed at times, or do the A321s just happen to be handy backup equipment?

Seems at least some of the AA A321s have been NEOs (if the likes of Flightaware are correct). Nice!


On the LAX route, a swap for a 321 is usually due to a 319 not being available for whatever reason. The same crew can fly either one. Load factors aren’t high enough right now to put a larger aircraft on the route regularly. N161AA was the most recent 321. It flew in Friday morning and was running about 2 hours behind so it definitely seemed like a last minute swap due to technical issues. And yes, there’s been a couple of the NEOs.

However, there’s been some swaps to 321 and 738 on the DFW route and those have had high load factors (definitely more occupied seats than the scheduled 319 capacity). It usually coincides with a Mesa flight being extremely delayed and/or cancelled, so mainline is likely picking up slack.


Nice info, thanks. Even if larger planes could later be justified to LAX, one could then make the argument that business flyers would really appreciate more frequency to/from LAX thus staying with smaller equipment. However, at least one issue is that any future oil spikes could particularly effect A319s. Like aircraft stretches/shrinks in general, an A321 has only a relatively small increase in operating costs over an A319. Yet an A321 has significantly more revenue earning potential if the seats can be filled.

With Mesa's base at SDF, I wonder if the use of Mesa's CR9s (with their seemingly less-than-stellar reliability) could continue on DFW flights for some time. The delayed Mitsubishi MRJ is not scheduled to enter service with Mesa until 2024.

BTW, how is WN's DAL-SDF route doing? That service is continuing even as WN is dropping a few flights from DAL to other cities such as OKC, JAX and even SFO. Even if it's currently only one flight a day, DAL-SDF still might be attracting some disgruntled Mesa fliers....especially those that are only going to/from the Dallas/Fort Worth area.
 
jplatts
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:46 am

tnair1974 wrote:
BTW, how is WN's DAL-SDF route doing? That service is continuing even as WN is dropping a few flights from DAL to other cities such as OKC, JAX and even SFO. Even if it's currently only one flight a day, DAL-SDF still might be attracting some disgruntled Mesa fliers....especially those that are only going to/from the Dallas/Fort Worth area.


Here are the load factors for WN nonstop routes out of SDF in the January 2019 - July 2019 time period:
SDF-BWI - 69.17%
SDF-DAL - 79.98%
SDF-DEN - 84.39%
SDF-HOU - 78.11%
SDF-LAS - 88.89%
SDF-MCO - 82.13%
SDF-MDW - 69.04%
SDF-PHX -85.49%
SDF-TPA - 84.56%
 
kwp302
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:06 pm

jplatts wrote:
tnair1974 wrote:
BTW, how is WN's DAL-SDF route doing? That service is continuing even as WN is dropping a few flights from DAL to other cities such as OKC, JAX and even SFO. Even if it's currently only one flight a day, DAL-SDF still might be attracting some disgruntled Mesa fliers....especially those that are only going to/from the Dallas/Fort Worth area.


Here are the load factors for WN nonstop routes out of SDF in the January 2019 - July 2019 time period:
SDF-BWI - 69.17%
SDF-DAL - 79.98%
SDF-DEN - 84.39%
SDF-HOU - 78.11%
SDF-LAS - 88.89%
SDF-MCO - 82.13%
SDF-MDW - 69.04%
SDF-PHX -85.49%
SDF-TPA - 84.56%

I’m shocked SDF-MDW is that low
 
kwp302
Posts: 73
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 18, 2019 3:12 am

UA increasing frequency to IAD to 3x daily in April (previously 2x daily). 6:00 AM departure to compliment the current mid-morning and afternoon schedules.
 
747fan
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:06 am

tnair1974 wrote:
kwp302 wrote:
tnair1974 wrote:
With Mesa's base at SDF, I wonder if the use of Mesa's CR9s (with their seemingly less-than-stellar reliability) could continue on DFW flights for some time. The delayed Mitsubishi MRJ is not scheduled to enter service with Mesa until 2024.


Unfortunately yes, as long as Mesa has a maintenance and crew base at SDF. I have no doubt DFW would be served by Envoy E175's if it weren't for this, and possibly more mainline as well (such as one of the DFW RON's like it used to be pre-merger).

I know its the low season, but the LAX flight has had some days with very low load factors (under 50% full) recently and has dropped off substantially overall since the summer.
 
flyguy89
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 18, 2019 6:28 am

kwp302 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
tnair1974 wrote:
BTW, how is WN's DAL-SDF route doing? That service is continuing even as WN is dropping a few flights from DAL to other cities such as OKC, JAX and even SFO. Even if it's currently only one flight a day, DAL-SDF still might be attracting some disgruntled Mesa fliers....especially those that are only going to/from the Dallas/Fort Worth area.


Here are the load factors for WN nonstop routes out of SDF in the January 2019 - July 2019 time period:
SDF-BWI - 69.17%
SDF-DAL - 79.98%
SDF-DEN - 84.39%
SDF-HOU - 78.11%
SDF-LAS - 88.89%
SDF-MCO - 82.13%
SDF-MDW - 69.04%
SDF-PHX -85.49%
SDF-TPA - 84.56%

I’m shocked SDF-MDW is that low

That's about normal for those short-haul, high-frequency MDW routes. IND-MDW, CVG-MDW, and CMH-MDW I'm pretty sure all have similar load factors.
 
kwp302
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:15 pm

747fan wrote:
I know its the low season, but the LAX flight has had some days with very low load factors (under 50% full) recently and has dropped off substantially overall since the summer.

It’ll be interesting to see what the loads are like when it switches to the midday schedule in December. I can speak from experience that the red eye is brutal. If the performance exceeds expectations this winter, it’ll stay on that schedule. Otherwise, it’ll be back to the red eye in the spring
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:37 pm

kwp302 wrote:
747fan wrote:
I know its the low season, but the LAX flight has had some days with very low load factors (under 50% full) recently and has dropped off substantially overall since the summer.

It’ll be interesting to see what the loads are like when it switches to the midday schedule in December. I can speak from experience that the red eye is brutal. If the performance exceeds expectations this winter, it’ll stay on that schedule. Otherwise, it’ll be back to the red eye in the spring


Here is how it is looking so far

Apr SDF-LAX-80.5%; LAX-SDF-85.3%
May SDF-LAX-87.3%; LAX-SDF-77.1%
June SDF-LAX-91.7%; LAX-SDF-91.6%
July SDF-LAX-87.8%; LAX-SDF-84.3%
Aug SDF-LAX-73.6%; LAX-SDF-70.3%
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
tnair1974
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:49 am

kwp302 wrote:
UA increasing frequency to IAD to 3x daily in April (previously 2x daily). 6:00 AM departure to compliment the current mid-morning and afternoon schedules.

Seems I recall SDF-IAD was actually just a single daily flight for sometime before going 2x more recently. Nice growth.

Also, nice that UA (Express) LEX-IAD service continues considering this is a relatively new route. In contrast, CHA-IAD will be dropped in early December.
 
747fan
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:18 am

Midwestindy wrote:
kwp302 wrote:
747fan wrote:

Here is how it is looking so far

Apr SDF-LAX-80.5%; LAX-SDF-85.3%
May SDF-LAX-87.3%; LAX-SDF-77.1%
June SDF-LAX-91.7%; LAX-SDF-91.6%
July SDF-LAX-87.8%; LAX-SDF-84.3%
Aug SDF-LAX-73.6%; LAX-SDF-70.3%


Thanks. Quite good in the peak summer months but supports my observation of it dropping off considerably once school started back in early August (obviously not unique to this flight).
And yes, I think the change to the midday schedule will help due to connection options to/from New Zealand and Australia. Only real loss will be westbound traffic to Hawaii (will arrive into LAX too late to connect to the islands), but typically this flight tends to be at least 70% local traffic anyway.

However, a possible side effect of the schedule change is that this flight won't be as easy to cover out of LAX in the event of its equipment going out of service. Right now, this flight is easy to cover with an overnighting LAA A321 or 321NEO without much, if any disruption to the schedule the next day due to it being a short redeye that gets back into LAX at around 0900 the next morning. This is why its not uncommon to see these aircraft operate this flight in place of the usual A319.
 
kwp302
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:36 pm

747fan wrote:
And yes, I think the change to the midday schedule will help due to connection options to/from New Zealand and Australia. Only real loss will be westbound traffic to Hawaii (will arrive into LAX too late to connect to the islands), but typically this flight tends to be at least 70% local traffic anyway.

FWIW, in December after the schedule change, most dates show greater than 60% of seats booked already.
747fan wrote:
However, a possible side effect of the schedule change is that this flight won't be as easy to cover out of LAX in the event of its equipment going out of service. Right now, this flight is easy to cover with an overnighting LAA A321 or 321NEO without much, if any disruption to the schedule the next day due to it being a short redeye that gets back into LAX at around 0900 the next morning. This is why its not uncommon to see these aircraft operate this flight in place of the usual A319.

Hopefully AA has their maintenance issues straightened out and it won’t be as big of an issue anymore.
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 388
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:05 pm

Is there a drawing out there that shows what is under construction around the SDF Terminal?
 
kwp302
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:06 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Is there a drawing out there that shows what is under construction around the SDF Terminal?

It’s mostly related to parking. The old cell phone lot is being expanded into a new surface lot (new cell phone lot is on Crittenden Drive by the post office), the surface lot is being expanded towards the north side of the parking garage, and preparations are being made for moving the rental car lot to the parking garage
 
Bluegrass60
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:48 am

Thanks for reply. Great to see the momentum at SDF!
 
kwp302
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Nov 20, 2019 5:53 pm

The work going on down around the arrivals pickup area is for the future access to the surface lot. Access will be through the second floor of the parking garage and into the terminal at the bag claim level. The underground tunnels will then be used for accessing the rental cars in the lower level of the parking garage.
 
kwp302
Posts: 73
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:59 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 22, 2019 3:02 pm

Delta has loaded an A321 into the schedule for SDF starting in January

DL1205 ATL-SDF 6:40p-7:56p
DL2099 SDF-ATL 6:00a-7:25a
 
Bluegrass60
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Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:15 am

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 22, 2019 5:36 pm

As a DL platinum guy...look forward to taking the 6:40PM back to SDF. Usually out on the 7AM or 8:10AM...maybe they move to A320(1)'s soon. Curious if 757 an option for SDF (outside of Derby)....A320 is similar size and I suppose more fuel efficient??
 
kwp302
Posts: 73
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:59 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 22, 2019 8:52 pm

Bluegrass60 wrote:
As a DL platinum guy...look forward to taking the 6:40PM back to SDF. Usually out on the 7AM or 8:10AM...maybe they move to A320(1)'s soon. Curious if 757 an option for SDF (outside of Derby)....A320 is similar size and I suppose more fuel efficient??

New A321s vs old B757s for only a gain of 10 seats? I’ll take the A321 all day
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 388
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 22, 2019 9:36 pm

You are correct...New A321 beats the old 757s. Have been seeing some DL A220's in DTW, LGA and BOS lately. Sharp looking on the outside. Maybe BOS-SDF on A220 in our near term future?

Oct 2019 PAX results posted. 408,958 up 7.22% vs Oct 2018. Projects to 4.2M+ for full year....which will be a record. The construction for 1,000 more parking spaces at SDF inidicates they plan on more growth...if it slows to 3%...SDF hits 5M in 2024....SDF Next might be bigger than we last heard....

Louisville itself.making an entertainment zone on Washington St side of Whiskey Row....positions it as Louisville's version of Nashville's S Broadway....albeit bourbon-centric vs honky tonk [email protected] more hotel rooms under construction dtwn in 2020...tourism/conventions continue growing in Louisville....maybe we catch some of what Nashville has enjoyed since 2010? (actually we have already been catching some of that)
 
747fan
Posts: 918
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 22, 2019 10:46 pm

Flew into/out of SDF earlier this week. Does anybody on here know what the area under construction between the parking garage and the surface lots is for (between the garage and the Watterson Expressway)?
Almost looked like the parking garage is going to be added onto, perhaps due to the rental cars being moved into there.
 
747fan
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Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 7:40 am

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 22, 2019 10:56 pm

kwp302 wrote:
Delta has loaded an A321 into the schedule for SDF starting in January

DL1205 ATL-SDF 6:40p-7:56p
DL2099 SDF-ATL 6:00a-7:25a


That’s great news. I had expected the MD-80’s/90’s on ATL to get replaced by 738/A319/A320.

Wish AA would put additional mainline on DFW/CLT. CLT saw as many as 2 A319’s a day this past summer. Starting yesterday, DFW lost mainline until January despite us coming up on the peak holiday travel period. This will leave LAX as AA’s sole mainline flight.
Also would be nice to see UA add mainline to SDF , perhaps a frequency or 2 on ORD or DEN this coming spring/summer.
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 388
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 22, 2019 11:08 pm

I restrict my flying to DL and WN....but when I have to go to ORD...would be nice to have Mainline UA. I don't mind the E-170/175s tho.

Before AA and US merged....AA was fine. I used to fly US alot....then never. US destroyed PI
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 388
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:15 am

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Fri Nov 22, 2019 11:10 pm

747fan wrote:
Flew into/out of SDF earlier this week. Does anybody on here know what the area under construction between the parking garage and the surface lots is for (between the garage and the Watterson Expressway)?
Almost looked like the parking garage is going to be added onto, perhaps due to the rental cars being moved into there.



"https://www.flylouisville.com/louisville-muhammad-ali-international-airport-construction-update-parking-and-terminal-acces/ "
 
kwp302
Posts: 73
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:59 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:23 am

Bluegrass60 wrote:
Maybe BOS-SDF on A220 in our near term future?

If BOS - SDF launches on DL, it'll likely be Republic E175's. But don't count out B6.
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 388
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:15 am

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 2:33 pm

kwp302 wrote:
Bluegrass60 wrote:
Maybe BOS-SDF on A220 in our near term future?

If BOS - SDF launches on DL, it'll likely be Republic E175's. But don't count out B6.


"My bad on A220....correct it would be E175s...Republic cancelled their order for A220. B6 would be interesting to BOS....more interesting if they set up more than an 'outpost' at SDF. Am sure B6 has heard of Moxy....
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 388
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 2:38 pm

Anyone know of plans to have a side exit from the terminal to the credit card lot? There is a door there now but think it is for employees only. It would make for a quicker journey to the credit card lot for us passengers.
 
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johnboy
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Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Sat Nov 23, 2019 4:07 pm

It’s quaint now to think of all the hoopla years ago (in certain circles ;) ) when SDF reached the ONE million mark, lol!
 
tnair1974
Posts: 69
Joined: Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:37 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Nov 27, 2019 12:06 am

747fan wrote:

Wish AA would put additional mainline on DFW/CLT. CLT saw as many as 2 A319’s a day this past summer. Starting yesterday, DFW lost mainline until January despite us coming up on the peak holiday travel period. This will leave LAX as AA’s sole mainline flight.


It may be true that busy holiday travel periods such as Thanksgiving/Christmas/New Years generate lower yields due to business travel being at least partially replaced by heavy VFR traffic (Visiting Friends/Relatives). Also, the 737MAX situation may be a factor. But it's still puzzling AA mainline (except LAX) has been dropped now. If there was going to be a break in any mainline service for our part of the country, I would have thought mainline would be dropped for low season in the early part of the year then brought back in the spring. Somewhat how WN cut PHX-SDF to less than daily for January and February of this year.
 
tnair1974
Posts: 69
Joined: Sun Sep 15, 2019 5:37 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Nov 27, 2019 12:58 am

kwp302 wrote:
Delta has loaded an A321 into the schedule for SDF starting in January

DL1205 ATL-SDF 6:40p-7:56p
DL2099 SDF-ATL 6:00a-7:25a

Kind of a reminder how Delta used stretch DC-8-71s ATL-SDF for the late terminator/morning originator during the early 1980s. A nice break from the steady DL 722s/D93s (and later 732s). DL DC-8-71s were also used at TYS during the 1984 Worlds Fair. Then of course there were all the UPS eights at SDF. How I loved that sound! :cloudnine:

Heck, when I was really young I remember early DL DC-8s with their older smoky P&W engines. Ditto TW/AA 707s. This was mostly at airports like ATL. But around 1980 or so, my family and I made a car trip to visit Louisville relatives. I got to see a TW 707 departing SDF which was especially a thrill considering I was a lot more use to seeing the likes of 727s and DC-9s at TYS, CHA, SDF. Little did I know how quickly 707s and older DC-8s were starting to disappear.

Nice jog down memory lane! :cheerful:
 
Bluegrass60
Posts: 388
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:15 am

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Nov 27, 2019 1:38 am

tnair1974 wrote:
kwp302 wrote:
Delta has loaded an A321 into the schedule for SDF starting in January

DL1205 ATL-SDF 6:40p-7:56p
DL2099 SDF-ATL 6:00a-7:25a

Kind of a reminder how Delta used stretch DC-8-71s ATL-SDF for the late terminator/morning originator during the early 1980s. A nice break from the steady DL 722s/D93s (and later 732s). DL DC-8-71s were also used at TYS during the 1984 Worlds Fair. Then of course there were all the UPS eights at SDF. How I loved that sound! :cloudnine:

Heck, when I was really young I remember early DL DC-8s with their older smoky P&W engines. Ditto TW/AA 707s. This was mostly at airports like ATL. But around 1980 or so, my family and I made a car trip to visit Louisville relatives. I got to see a TW 707 departing SDF which was especially a thrill considering I was a lot more use to seeing the likes of 727s and DC-9s at TYS, CHA, SDF. Little did I know how quickly 707s and older DC-8s were starting to disappear.

Nice jog down memory lane! :cheerful:


"I do not recall the stretch 8's at SDF except on UPS...but do recall AA and TWA 707's; DL & TW Convair 880's back in the 70's. Also vaguely recall that EA had a focus op of sorts at SDF that eventually moved along to CLT in the early 70's. I think SDF hit a million back in the 60's. Thanks for the trip down memory lane.
 
kwp302
Posts: 73
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:59 pm

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Nov 27, 2019 2:28 am

tnair1974 wrote:

But it's still puzzling AA mainline (except LAX) has been dropped now. If there was going to be a break in any mainline service for our part of the country, I would have thought mainline would be dropped for low season in the early part of the year then brought back in the spring.

If it weren’t for the Mesa base at SDF, it would likely be mainline to DFW year-round.

CLT had a couple mainline flights per day this summer, too.
 
747fan
Posts: 918
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 7:40 am

Re: Kentucky Aviation Thread - 2019

Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:11 am

Heads up - this morning's SDF-LAX flight will be operating as an A321 due to equipment issues with A319's in LAX. The extra seats are useful too on the redeye inbound, as it was booked full on the original 319.

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