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ExMilitaryEng
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:38 pm

I would simplify the likelyhood to one scenario; would ramping up the A220 be cheaper (or bring greater economy of scale) than further ramping up the A320?

I would believe the A220 presents a more attractive improvement curve.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Jul 18, 2019 1:06 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
The backlog and production capacity is the largest issue for an A220-500.

Do you think Airbus would consider opening an A220 production line in Europe?

Volume is too low for two lines. Airbus is doing the best they can:
1. Open Mobile
2. Modernize/expand Mirabel.

I speculate Mobile will be rapidly expanded further.

If anything, the next line would be to secure Chinese orders.

Lightsaber
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BrianDromey
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:34 am

par13del wrote:
So if Airbus does the A220-500 will it have cockpit commonality with its earlier sibling or with the Airbus fleet above it, namely the A32X series?
Or to ask it another way, how extensive does Airbus want to have two narrow body fleets where small carriers dominate?


I don’t think replacing the Cockpit with A320 would be that easy. Remember it’s not just the “dashboard” it’s systems, flight controls, millions of lines of code. In the end they could have a Frankenstein MAX-like beast.
 
kimimm19
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:18 am

lightsaber wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
The backlog and production capacity is the largest issue for an A220-500.

Do you think Airbus would consider opening an A220 production line in Europe?

Volume is too low for two lines. Airbus is doing the best they can:
1. Open Mobile
2. Modernize/expand Mirabel.

I speculate Mobile will be rapidly expanded further.

If anything, the next line would be to secure Chinese orders.

Lightsaber


I agree, however if Airbus want to make a A220-500, I think their time is running out. More and more airlines are finally placing their narrowbody renewal orders and if their isn't a size that fits, they seem reasonably content to just order a size up and reap the rewards during busy times.
 
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Fri Jul 19, 2019 3:36 pm

kimimm19 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
The backlog and production capacity is the largest issue for an A220-500.

Do you think Airbus would consider opening an A220 production line in Europe?

Volume is too low for two lines. Airbus is doing the best they can:
1. Open Mobile
2. Modernize/expand Mirabel.

I speculate Mobile will be rapidly expanded further.

If anything, the next line would be to secure Chinese orders.

Lightsaber


I agree, however if Airbus want to make a A220-500, I think their time is running out. More and more airlines are finally placing their narrowbody renewal orders and if their isn't a size that fits, they seem reasonably content to just order a size up and reap the rewards during busy times.

There is a 20 year window to sell the A220-500. Yes, that window is already shrinking and probably is at about 18 years today. As 5 or so years are eaten up in development.

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TObound
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Fri Jul 26, 2019 11:34 am

I honestly think Airbus didn't fully appreciate what they had acquired in the CSeries when they took over. Now that more blue chip airlines are ordering, and not at launch pricing given to DL and LH, they're probably re-evaluating where the 220 will fit in their lineup going forward.

Both OEMs were content to milk the status quo, until Bombardier took a gamble with the GTF. It was flight test data that Airbus had access to that drove them to NEO the 320. And in turn drove Boeing to the 737 MAX. Neither would have spent money developing a new narrowbody. But by luck, Airbus now has a brand new advanced narrowbody in their lineup.

That history tells us something. Small airframers like Bombardier cannot go up against the duopoly. The next competitor coming will be a well supported state run enterprise from China or Russia. The duopoly won't be as lucky the next time. And if they aren't willing to innovate, they will lose marketshare. Buying out the competition won't be an option.

I'm no fan of the Chinese and their industrial practices. But in this particular case, there's a part of me that does wonder if aviation would have been better served with them acquiring the CSeries and not a duopoly member that is fat, dumb and happy to milk the stable product longer.
Last edited by TObound on Fri Jul 26, 2019 11:59 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Fri Jul 26, 2019 11:47 am

TObound wrote:
I honestly think Airbus didn't fully appreciate what they had acquired in the CSeries when they took over. Now that more blue chip airlines are ordering, and not at launch pricing given to DL and LH, they're probably re-evaluating where the 220 will fit in they're lineup going forward.

I think Airbus fully appreciates what they got. I think some here don’t fully appreciate just how much of a mess the C Series program (specifically in regards to production and costs) was in when Airbus acquired it and the amount of effort required to right the ship.
 
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Fri Jul 26, 2019 12:06 pm

Polot wrote:
TObound wrote:
I honestly think Airbus didn't fully appreciate what they had acquired in the CSeries when they took over. Now that more blue chip airlines are ordering, and not at launch pricing given to DL and LH, they're probably re-evaluating where the 220 will fit in they're lineup going forward.

I think Airbus fully appreciates what they got. I think some here don’t fully appreciate just how much of a mess the C Series program (specifically in regards to production and costs) was in when Airbus acquired it and the amount of effort required to right the ship.


That's true. But I think you have to remember that Bombardier also never intended to have the CSeries steal substantial marketshare from the duopoly. If the rumours are correct and they sized the line to be profitable at 10 per month, they always intended to produce a fraction of what the duopoly did.

The same airplane is a very different asset for Airbus. Abe could be substantially more profitable for them than it was Bombardier. I'm betting we'll see the Airbus lineup adjusted in due course to accomodate the 225. They do have 8-9 years of NEO backlog to run down first.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:38 am

With the NEO backlog being at 9-9.5 years at current production rates, a A220-500 might get a delivery advantage..

Say Airbus can deliver from 2024-2025, conversions can improve revenue per production slot.

European / Chinese carriers don't need >2000Nm range anyway. They operate bigger more capable NB's on those routes.

https://aviationnews.online/2019/08/09/airfrance-klm-want-an-a220-500-instead-of-737max/
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:56 pm

keesje wrote:
With the NEO backlog being at 9-9.5 years at current production rates, a A220-500 might get a delivery advantage..

Say Airbus can deliver from 2024-2025, conversions can improve revenue per production slot.

European / Chinese carriers don't need >2000Nm range anyway. They operate bigger more capable NB's on those routes.

https://aviationnews.online/2019/08/09/airfrance-klm-want-an-a220-500-instead-of-737max/


I really think you're on to something.

Almost a decade of backlog. Competitor is struggling.

I would be surprised if there were no internal studies or plans for a -500 version at Airbus (Bombardier).

It would also mean Airbus could focus on replacing the A320 series with a larger aircraft meant to compliment the A220-series. From 200 to 270 seats or so around 2027-2030.

But a lot of these things depend on Boeing, if they move ahead with the Middle of Market aircraft and when. And that depends on the future of the MAX.
 
TObound
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:20 pm

There's the argument that the 320 competes against the 220-500.

I don't buy it. Airbus controls production and sales of the 220 and the 320 NEO families. They can optimize sales and production rates to ensure that overall profit is higher, even with the cut they might have to pay BBD. And the performance that the 220-500 would have means they could ask for some decent pricing.

It's too early for Airbus to show their cards though. They need to get the production line in Mirabel sorted out, complete the ramp successfully in Mobile, finish all the major PIPs that will enable growth to the -500 and sort out the ownership issues with the program. And that's all aside from ramping up on the 320NEO. This is all going to take 4-5 years anyway. So why show their cards early?
 
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:33 pm

TObound wrote:
There's the argument that the 320 competes against the 220-500.

I don't buy it. Airbus controls production and sales of the 220 and the 320 NEO families. They can optimize sales and production rates to ensure that overall profit is higher, even with the cut they might have to pay BBD. And the performance that the 220-500 would have means they could ask for some decent pricing.

It's too early for Airbus to show their cards though. They need to get the production line in Mirabel sorted out, complete the ramp successfully in Mobile, finish all the major PIPs that will enable growth to the -500 and sort out the ownership issues with the program. And that's all aside from ramping up on the 320NEO. This is all going to take 4-5 years anyway. So why show their cards early?


I think Airbus already showed it's cards by buying the program, opening a investment pipeline accross the Atlantic & guiding some major customers towards the A220. AF all but confirm a A220-500 is in the pipeline. A320s do 180 passengers +containers over 3500NM today & are sold out for many years, so A220 wouldn't be replacing those.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:38 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
I really think you're on to something.

Almost a decade of backlog. Competitor is struggling.

I would be surprised if there were no internal studies or plans for a -500 version at Airbus (Bombardier).

It would also mean Airbus could focus on replacing the A320 series with a larger aircraft meant to compliment the A220-series. From 200 to 270 seats or so around 2027-2030.

But a lot of these things depend on Boeing, if they move ahead with the Middle of Market aircraft and when. And that depends on the future of the MAX.

Seems Airbus has a large A32x backlog but is not fully capitalizing on it:

However, Airbus (OTC:EADSY) has been unable to capitalize on Boeing's woes for the most part. That's because the European aircraft manufacturer's dreadful operational performance has continued in 2019. Airbus is falling short of its delivery targets, its profit and cash flow are under pressure, and customers are becoming fed up.

Ref: https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/08/ ... oeing.aspx

It seems their best move is to reduce cost and improve predictability of their production lines if they want to capitalize on the current state of things.

Once MAX is back on line, Boeing will be more concerned about keeping their customers keen, so Airbus will have to do even more to compete.
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TObound
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:49 pm

keesje wrote:
I think Airbus already showed it's cards by buying the program, opening a investment pipeline across the Atlantic & guiding some major customers towards the A220. AF all but confirm a A220-500 is in the pipeline.


It's a question of when that we're all trying to parse out. Not if. Do they wait until they can buy out BBD shares? Do they delay as long as they can, so that they don't push Boeing into a massive commitment with the NSA? The big thing here is that both OEMs are incredibly happy with their massive backlogs, while staring down a global recession on the horizon. Not exactly a time period that allows C-Suites to be bold.

This is why I don't think we'll see anything before 2024. There's just too much for Airbus to do with the A220 production ramp at both sites, their dealings with Pratt, and all the required clean up with PIPs. By 2024, Mirabel will look very different with a Pre-FAL, the CRJ program gone and all the extra land that Airbus owns. The Mobile site could also have additional facilities. This can all be done quietly without triggering Boeing into the NSA. They'll be ready to EIS a 225 within 24 months of any Boeing NSA announcement.

Pratt's ramp is also a major consideration here since it's supporting both the 320NEO and 220 program. By 2024, Airbus could be producing upto 90 narrowbodies a month (75 NEOs, 15 220s). Pratt will have to deliver enough engines for 50-60 airplanes. Launching the 225 with both an overall orderbook increase and some movement from 320 to 220, means Pratt might have to support production for up to 70 airplanes per month. This could well be the critical path for Airbus' plans.

keesje wrote:
A320s do 180 passengers +containers over 3500NM today & are sold out for many years, so A220 wouldn't be replacing those.


There's lots of options for Airbus to play with/figure out. The 223 is a long aircraft. A hypothetical 225 will be about the length of a 321. So Airbus probably wants to figure out where they are going with the 320+ and 321+ before sizing the 225. Do they size it to be the 180 seat 320 replacement or closer to 150 seats in mainline configs, and get the LCCs to move to the 320+?

And the way range is going, the 225 will have over 3000NM of range at launch.
 
TObound
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:55 pm

Revelation wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
I really think you're on to something.

Almost a decade of backlog. Competitor is struggling.

I would be surprised if there were no internal studies or plans for a -500 version at Airbus (Bombardier).

It would also mean Airbus could focus on replacing the A320 series with a larger aircraft meant to compliment the A220-series. From 200 to 270 seats or so around 2027-2030.

But a lot of these things depend on Boeing, if they move ahead with the Middle of Market aircraft and when. And that depends on the future of the MAX.

Seems Airbus has a large A32x backlog but is not fully capitalizing on it:

However, Airbus (OTC:EADSY) has been unable to capitalize on Boeing's woes for the most part. That's because the European aircraft manufacturer's dreadful operational performance has continued in 2019. Airbus is falling short of its delivery targets, its profit and cash flow are under pressure, and customers are becoming fed up.

Ref: https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/08/ ... oeing.aspx

It seems their best move is to reduce cost and improve predictability of their production lines if they want to capitalize on the current state of things.

Once MAX is back on line, Boeing will be more concerned about keeping their customers keen, so Airbus will have to do even more to compete.


Outside the box thinking, if they face massive competition from Boeing on the MAX's return, would that not be the time to up the ante and launch the 225, to grab more customers from Boeing (or preventing defections)?
 
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:54 pm

TObound wrote:
Revelation wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
I really think you're on to something.

Almost a decade of backlog. Competitor is struggling.

I would be surprised if there were no internal studies or plans for a -500 version at Airbus (Bombardier).

It would also mean Airbus could focus on replacing the A320 series with a larger aircraft meant to compliment the A220-series. From 200 to 270 seats or so around 2027-2030.

But a lot of these things depend on Boeing, if they move ahead with the Middle of Market aircraft and when. And that depends on the future of the MAX.

Seems Airbus has a large A32x backlog but is not fully capitalizing on it:

However, Airbus (OTC:EADSY) has been unable to capitalize on Boeing's woes for the most part. That's because the European aircraft manufacturer's dreadful operational performance has continued in 2019. Airbus is falling short of its delivery targets, its profit and cash flow are under pressure, and customers are becoming fed up.

Ref: https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/08/ ... oeing.aspx

It seems their best move is to reduce cost and improve predictability of their production lines if they want to capitalize on the current state of things.

Once MAX is back on line, Boeing will be more concerned about keeping their customers keen, so Airbus will have to do even more to compete.


Outside the box thinking, if they face massive competition from Boeing on the MAX's return, would that not be the time to up the ante and launch the 225, to grab more customers from Boeing (or preventing defections)?


Out of the box thinking for sure :rotfl: Adam Levine-Weinberg at his best, picking op positives for Boeing & discovering possible Airbus issues. Desperately trying to “Balance” the news. Thanks Revelation for posting. It brought a smile on my face a few days ago, didn’t post it. I advise everybody to read this article!
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:35 pm

keesje wrote:
Thanks Revelation for posting. It brought a smile on my face a few days ago, didn’t post it. I advise everybody to read this article!

You are welcome!

Since this brings you joy, I'll make it even easier for people to follow your recommendation by posting a quote:

Even if Airbus does achieve its target of 880 to 890 deliveries this year, it still won't be able to meet the delivery schedules promised to customers. Numerous A321neo buyers have stated that they are facing significant delays in receiving their orders. JetBlue Airways recently confirmed that Airbus will only be able to deliver six of the 13 A321neos the carrier was scheduled to receive in 2019. The airline expects Airbus to fall further behind in 2020.

Delays at suppliers have caused some of this disruption. However, design changes made by Airbus have been the main impediment to keeping A321neo production on track. With Airbus in the midst of ramping up A320-family production to an unprecedented rate of 60 per month -- and hoping to increase that rate to 65 per month by 2022 -- it's a safe bet that getting jets to customers on time will remain a big challenge for the foreseeable future.

Glad to give your day a boost! :thumbsup:
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fcogafa
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:45 pm

Presumably it takes proportionately longer to build an A321 than an A320 so all the orders and conversions to A321 just exacerbate the current delay problems for Airbus
 
SteelChair
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:54 pm

Are the A321N delays because of Airbus or PW and CFM?
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:20 pm

One must also realize: the A220-300 and the A320neo have roughly the same cabin length (90.2 feet)...and in terms of length, the A320neo is actually shorter than the A220-300 (A320neo: 123.25 feet, A220-300 127 feet)...a result of the A220-300 being just 5-abreast instead of the six-abreast A320neo. The A220-100 is actually nearly 4 feet longer than the A319neo (114.75 and 111 feet, respectively).

With an A220-500, one is likely approaching A321neo length with A320 capacity. That's why I can't see another stretch being done...UNLESS...the A220-500 is significantly lighter than the A320neo.

Likely advantages of the A320:
1. Being able to accept the LD3-45 container
2. No additional training for existing A320 family crews.
3. Shorter than the A220 at a similar capacity (I expect the A220-500 to be an A321neo-length aircraft)

Likely advantages of the A220-500:
1. Lighter at MTOW
2. Lighter maximum landing weight
3. Lighter maximum zero-fuel weight
4. Similar payload on a lighter plane.

As for the A220-300 compared to the A319neo, here is each's advantage:

A319neo:
1. Can take the LD3-45
2. Can fly about 350 nmi farther (3348 nmi on the BCS3 versus 3697 nmi on the A19N)
3. No new training for crews needed.
4. Much shorter than the A220-300.

A220-300:
1. 5.6 metric tons lighter at maximum ramp and takeoff weight
2. 5.2 metric tons lighter at maximum landing weight
3. 4.5 metric tons lighter at maximum zero fuel weight
4. Better fuel economy per seat compared to the A19N

I would not be surprised if some company develops a cargo containerizing system for the A220-300. I would also be surprised if any airline takes delivery of an A319neo.

If anything, Airbus should develop a corporate jet based on the A220-300.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:09 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
If anything, Airbus should develop a corporate jet based on the A220-300.

In the AF A220 MOU thread, post #483 mentioned 2 unidentified A220-300 VIP frames on order. Considering the slight MTOW bump for the A221 and the already longer size than the A319N as you said...then an ACJ221 might be a better proposition rangewise and pricewise than its sibling, no? :airplane:
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:29 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
Likely advantages of the A320:
1. Being able to accept the LD3-45 container
2. No additional training for existing A320 family crews.
3. Shorter than the A220 at a similar capacity (I expect the A220-500 to be an A321neo-length aircraft)

4. Production volume five times or more greater than A220 family through 2023 even if current projections are met
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keesje
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:36 pm

An A220-500 would become 140 ft max. The A321 is an extreme stretch of the A320. 4-5 Extra seatrows on top of the A220-300 seems likely for a -500. Still about 7 ft less than an A321.
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rrbsztk
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:47 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
One must also realize: the A220-300 and the A320neo have roughly the same cabin length (90.2 feet)...and in terms of length, the A320neo is actually shorter than the A220-300 (A320neo: 123.25 feet, A220-300 127 feet)...a result of the A220-300 being just 5-abreast instead of the six-abreast A320neo. The A220-100 is actually nearly 4 feet longer than the A319neo (114.75 and 111 feet, respectively).

With an A220-500, one is likely approaching A321neo length with A320 capacity. That's why I can't see another stretch being done...UNLESS...the A220-500 is significantly lighter than the A320neo.

Likely advantages of the A320:
1. Being able to accept the LD3-45 container
2. No additional training for existing A320 family crews.
3. Shorter than the A220 at a similar capacity (I expect the A220-500 to be an A321neo-length aircraft)

Likely advantages of the A220-500:
1. Lighter at MTOW
2. Lighter maximum landing weight
3. Lighter maximum zero-fuel weight
4. Similar payload on a lighter plane.

As for the A220-300 compared to the A319neo, here is each's advantage:

A319neo:
1. Can take the LD3-45
2. Can fly about 350 nmi farther (3348 nmi on the BCS3 versus 3697 nmi on the A19N)
3. No new training for crews needed.
4. Much shorter than the A220-300.

A220-300:
1. 5.6 metric tons lighter at maximum ramp and takeoff weight
2. 5.2 metric tons lighter at maximum landing weight
3. 4.5 metric tons lighter at maximum zero fuel weight
4. Better fuel economy per seat compared to the A19N

I would not be surprised if some company develops a cargo containerizing system for the A220-300. I would also be surprised if any airline takes delivery of an A319neo.

If anything, Airbus should develop a corporate jet based on the A220-300.


Re containerized cargo I'm not sure its feasible. I looked at the airport planning documents and the A320 cargo doors are 5.97ft wide and 4.04ft tall. The A220 doors are only 3.67ft wide and 2.67ft tall. I'd imagine a container small enough to fit in that door would be inefficient space usage, so unless they somehow enlarge the doors it'll be challenging.
 
SteelChair
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:20 pm

keesje wrote:
An A220-500 would become 140 ft max. The A321 is an extreme stretch of the A320. 4-5 Extra seatrows on top of the A220-300 seems likely for a -500. Still about 7 ft less than an A321.


And such an A220-500 would still be 7 feet shorter than the MD 80 series.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:35 pm

keesje wrote:
An A220-500 would become 140 ft max. The A321 is an extreme stretch of the A320. 4-5 Extra seatrows on top of the A220-300 seems likely for a -500. Still about 7 ft less than an A321.


Let's say 4 rows in a standard configuration like airBaltic. Or 5 rows in absolute sardine can configuration.

A220-300 at airBaltic has 145 seats. A220-500 with 4 extra rows x 5 seats makes it 165 seats.

A220-300 max. config is 160 seats. A220-500 with 5 extra rows x 5 seats makes it 185 seats.

That's pretty much the same as the A320, or slightly below.

We know it would likely bring an economical advantage through modern technology (maintenance requirements), operating costs (lower weight) and fuel burn.
It would likely also have the advantage of being available, which you mentioned earlier.

The disadvantages would be crew training (although not if the airline already operates -100 or -300).
Not being able to carry containers.
Shorter range.

However, this means that any A320-series replacement 10 years from now would have to be optimized for 165 to 265 seats (standard config). I think that's slighly below what Boeing envisions their MoM to be.

Anyway, I'm tired so my logic might be a bit off.
 
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:37 am

par13del wrote:
So if Airbus does the A220-500 will it have cockpit commonality with its earlier sibling or with the Airbus fleet above it, namely the A32X series?
Or to ask it another way, how extensive does Airbus want to have two narrow body fleets where small carriers dominate?


Think about it, if the possible A220-500 were made common with the A320, the buyers would lose commonality with their -100 and -300 fleets. Besides, it’s not possible-the A220 uses different flight control laws than any Airbus (more Boeing-like to oversimplify it); uses an entirely different AFCS, FMS cockpit by Collins instead of Honeywell, the throttles move instead of being fixed.

A friend sent me a pic flying the G7500 approaching 50W, F430, M.90, TAS of 527 knots.

GF
 
TObound
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:49 am

A.net worries way too much about commonality. It's an advantage to be sure. But hasn't been enough to stop five blue chip mainline network carriers (AF, AC, DL, LX and KE) from ordering the family. They have ~240 orders just between them. And they'd easily order just as many 225s between them. It's enough for Airbus to launch.

The only question here is whether it's happy with the profit the 225 world produce for their shareholders.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:31 am

I think Airbus is waiting until they can perfect the manufacturing of the A220 and buy out other shareholders before starting with the A225. Also an engine upgrade in the form of the RR Ultrafan might be in play. Such an aircraft would have 30% improvement over the current A320NEO.

Currently airliners are boasting 25% better fuel economy for the A223 compared to 737MAX7. So the 30% number should be feasible for the A225. The order books for the A320 are already turning more and more in favor of the A321. So I am expecting the A320 to be phased out around 2025 and all production lines converted to produce the A225, to solve the capacity problems.

This will ensure that they can grab the market 4-5 years before the NSA can make its maiden flight.
 
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:20 am

JonesNL wrote:
The order books for the A320 are already turning more and more in favor of the A321. So I am expecting the A320 to be phased out around 2025 and all production lines converted to produce the A225, to solve the capacity problems.


Next to th A321s, Airbus has 4000+ A320NEO's in the backlog, 4000.. those can take up to 186 passengers over 3500M and can do cargo containers. It's not exactly a dead program.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
JonesNL
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:34 am

keesje wrote:

Next to th A321s, Airbus has 4000+ A320NEO's in the backlog, 4000.. those can take up to 186 passengers over 3500M and can do cargo containers. It's not exactly a dead program.


It is highly successful now and it is fully booked for 6-7 years. But seeing that there are more orders for the A321 already and there are less A320NEO orders this year already means simply that the order books will dry up in the years after 2025. Airbus will probably try to milk it out way beyond that date, which is completely logical from a business perspective, but they will also eye the development of the NSA. Which might force them to go with the A220-500 and retool the FALs of the A320.

Just an armchair prediction on my end.
Last edited by JonesNL on Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:35 am

JonesNL wrote:
I think Airbus is waiting until they can perfect the manufacturing of the A220 and buy out other shareholders before starting with the A225. Also an engine upgrade in the form of the RR Ultrafan might be in play. Such an aircraft would have 30% improvement over the current A320NEO.

Currently airliners are boasting 25% better fuel economy for the A223 compared to 737MAX7. So the 30% number should be feasible for the A225. The order books for the A320 are already turning more and more in favor of the A321. So I am expecting the A320 to be phased out around 2025 and all production lines converted to produce the A225, to solve the capacity problems.

This will ensure that they can grab the market 4-5 years before the NSA can make its maiden flight.

With some exceptions all A320s are built on the same line as all A321s. If they are converting all the lines to produce the A225 then Airbus can’t fulfill their A321 production obligations.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:37 am

Polot wrote:
With some exceptions all A320s are built on the same line as all A321s. If they are converting all the lines to produce the A225 then Airbus can’t fulfill their A321 production obligations.


True, but I think it is feasible to have some of the FALs just to focus on the A321 and retool some of them just to focus on the A225.
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:51 am

JonesNL wrote:
Polot wrote:
With some exceptions all A320s are built on the same line as all A321s. If they are converting all the lines to produce the A225 then Airbus can’t fulfill their A321 production obligations.


True, but I think it is feasible to have some of the FALs just to focus on the A321 and retool some of them just to focus on the A225.

Ok, but then you are cutting possible production volumes for the A321, and have lower production volumes for the A225 than the competitor. The A320neo will also still be attractive to airlines because it shares full commonality with the A321, unlike a A225.

Your 30% better for A225 vs 737max/A320neo is also optimistic. I’m not sure how much better the A223 is compared to the 737max7/A319neo (none of the latter two jets have yet to be delivered to any airline...I suspect your 25% fuel burn claim is a little optimistic) but the efficiency gap will get narrower as the A220 grows and is competing against planes with structures more optimized for their size.
 
tphuang
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:04 pm

Has anyone read the content of this?
https://leehamnews.com/2019/08/15/will- ... ts-part-2/
https://leehamnews.com/2019/08/08/will- ... ller-jets/
I'd be curious what they find regarding A220 economics on TATL routes. Certainly seems a jet that can open up even thinner routes than A321LR.
 
TObound
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:28 pm

Polot wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
Polot wrote:
With some exceptions all A320s are built on the same line as all A321s. If they are converting all the lines to produce the A225 then Airbus can’t fulfill their A321 production obligations.


True, but I think it is feasible to have some of the FALs just to focus on the A321 and retool some of them just to focus on the A225.

Ok, but then you are cutting possible production volumes for the A321, and have lower production volumes for the A225 than the competitor. The A320neo will also still be attractive to airlines because it shares full commonality with the A321, unlike a A225.


Think of it in the context of the ramp up. They are going to 63/mo by 2021 on the 320 lines. And there are rumblings of 75/mo. Add in 14-15/mo from the 220 line by 2024 and they'll be at about 90/mo by then for all narrowbodies.

I would imagine a scenario of where the 320 line is ramped less and the 220 line is ramped more, with an overall production increase to 100/mo. So say the 320/220 split is 70/30 by 2026 instead. And then if needed, Toulouse gets converted to 220 production and then it's a 60/40 split. Some of their 320 orders will migrate to the 225, letting them ease up on the 320 ramp.

Of course, to generate that kind of demand for the 220, they need the 225. If it's just the 221/223, I don't think production beyond 15/mo and the two sites (Mirabel, Mobile) is warranted.

Polot wrote:
Your 30% better for A225 vs 737max/A320neo is also optimistic. I’m not sure how much better the A223 is compared to the 737max7/A319neo (none of the latter two jets have yet to be delivered to any airline...I suspect your 25% fuel burn claim is a little optimistic) but the efficiency gap will get narrower as the A220 grows and is competing against planes with structures more optimized for their size.


I'd believe 305 on the 73G or 320CEO. Agreed, it's extremely optimistic on the 7M7/320NEO.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:59 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
keesje wrote:
An A220-500 would become 140 ft max. The A321 is an extreme stretch of the A320. 4-5 Extra seatrows on top of the A220-300 seems likely for a -500. Still about 7 ft less than an A321.


Let's say 4 rows in a standard configuration like airBaltic. Or 5 rows in absolute sardine can configuration.

A220-300 at airBaltic has 145 seats. A220-500 with 4 extra rows x 5 seats makes it 165 seats.

A220-300 max. config is 160 seats. A220-500 with 5 extra rows x 5 seats makes it 185 seats.

That's pretty much the same as the A320, or slightly below.


Hmmm.

(1) A 3.4m stretch would give you 180 passengers. (42.1m overall)
(2) A 5.9m stretch would give you 195 passengers. (44.6m overall)

Would it be worth going for the "double" stretch to hit the 4x cabin crew optimum? Or would the fuselage become too long at that point and structurally inefficient?

The A321 has a length of 44.5m, fuse height is 4.14m. Fineness ratio: ~10.75

The CS300 fuse height is around 3.7m (IIRC). So for above
(1) 11.1
(2) 12.0

Maybe aiming for 195 pax is stretching it a bit too far [pun intended].
 
Babyshark
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:13 pm

https://simpleflying.com/airbus-wont-be ... 0-for-now/

Airbus has taken the time from their sudden A321XLR reveal to quietly announce that at this stage they won’t be creating an A220-500 stretch.

Twitter
Scherer on A220-500: Every plane wishes to be stretched but we’re not considering it right now. #PAS19
 
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:56 pm

Amiga500 wrote:
Hmmm.

(1) A 3.4m stretch would give you 180 passengers. (42.1m overall)
(2) A 5.9m stretch would give you 195 passengers. (44.6m overall)

Would it be worth going for the "double" stretch to hit the 4x cabin crew optimum? Or would the fuselage become too long at that point and structurally inefficient?

The A321 has a length of 44.5m, fuse height is 4.14m. Fineness ratio: ~10.75

The CS300 fuse height is around 3.7m (IIRC). So for above
(1) 11.1
(2) 12.0

Maybe aiming for 195 pax is stretching it a bit too far [pun intended].


That is a real possibility. Stretching it too far could definately introduce issues with runway length requirements as well as CG problems when embarking and disembarking the plane.

Babyshark wrote:
https://simpleflying.com/airbus-wont-be ... 0-for-now/

Airbus has taken the time from their sudden A321XLR reveal to quietly announce that at this stage they won’t be creating an A220-500 stretch.

Twitter
Scherer on A220-500: Every plane wishes to be stretched but we’re not considering it right now. #PAS19


I tend to take these kind of things with a pinch of salt. Airbus has a history of denying any new developments until the day they announce it. That was the case with A330neo and A321LR.

Focusing on pumping out A320 series is probably a good idea, but even with increased production and fixing the A321neo delays, the backlog would remain at more than 5 years.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:18 pm

Babyshark wrote:
https://simpleflying.com/airbus-wont-be-making-a-stretched-a220-for-now/

Airbus has taken the time from their sudden A321XLR reveal to quietly announce that at this stage they won’t be creating an A220-500 stretch.

Twitter
Scherer on A220-500: Every plane wishes to be stretched but we’re not considering it right now. #PAS19

Ahh, so much math on so many napkins is now for naught.

Poor napkins, back to their humble and messy traditional role, instead of being fore-bearers of technological advancement...

JetBuddy wrote:
I tend to take these kind of things with a pinch of salt. Airbus has a history of denying any new developments until the day they announce it. That was the case with A330neo and A321LR.

I tend to disagree. A330neo was widely rumored. Enders was dropping suggestions of how surprised people would be about the amount of fuel the XLR could tank many months ago. Leahy was openly goading Boeing to do MAX instead of NSR because of the numbers he was seeing from NEO.

JetBuddy wrote:
Focusing on pumping out A320 series is probably a good idea, but even with increased production and fixing the A321neo delays, the backlog would remain at more than 5 years.

I think that's about where Airbus wants the backlog to be.

IMO they want to keep the CSALP team focused on A220 profitability and don't want to increase the price they pay to buy out CSALP in the 2024 time frame.
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TObound
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:40 pm

Revelation wrote:
IMO they want to keep the CSALP team focused on A220 profitability and don't want to increase the price they pay to buy out CSALP in the 2024 time frame.


I broadly agree. Should be noted thought that Airbus has the option to buyout before 2024. That's just when the clauses go active. They can negotiate to buy out anytime. At minimum, Investment Quebec would sell their shares tomorrow if Airbus made an offer that simply recouped IQ's costs. IQ is a government agency with a mandate to foster industrial development. They aren't in it to make money on the shares. Their role was stabilizing the CSeries program and helping BBD find a buyer. They won't want to hang on to the shares.
 
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:13 pm

TObound wrote:
Revelation wrote:
IMO they want to keep the CSALP team focused on A220 profitability and don't want to increase the price they pay to buy out CSALP in the 2024 time frame.

I broadly agree. Should be noted thought that Airbus has the option to buyout before 2024. That's just when the clauses go active. They can negotiate to buy out anytime. At minimum, Investment Quebec would sell their shares tomorrow if Airbus made an offer that simply recouped IQ's costs. IQ is a government agency with a mandate to foster industrial development. They aren't in it to make money on the shares. Their role was stabilizing the CSeries program and helping BBD find a buyer. They won't want to hang on to the shares.

Very interesting. Yes, there are so many variables. Would the buyouts be cash or a stock swap? If the buyout needs to be cash, would it be the best use of their cash given all their other priorities? If they really believe in the program they could finance a buy out, but maybe it is better to keep the pressure on the current team. However, if the current team executes well it just drives up the price of a buyout.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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JetBuddy
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:15 pm

Revelation wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
I tend to take these kind of things with a pinch of salt. Airbus has a history of denying any new developments until the day they announce it. That was the case with A330neo and A321LR.

I tend to disagree. A330neo was widely rumored. Enders was dropping suggestions of how surprised people would be about the amount of fuel the XLR could tank many months ago. Leahy was openly goading Boeing to do MAX instead of NSR because of the numbers he was seeing from NEO.



A330neo was widely rumored yes. But I remember Airbus denying it's existance as well. The same with the A321LR (not the XLR).

Now we have the same situation with the A220-500. Rumors and speculation on the internet - and Airbus denying they will pursue that strategy.

However, I'm too lazy to dig around the forums and the internet to backup my statement.

One important point is that the new boss might not be the same as the old boss in this case. Maybe their strategy has changed, and you can take what they say at face value. Which would make you right.

Either way we won't see the -500 launched in a while. Plenty of time for speculations and rumors.
 
TObound
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:03 pm

Revelation wrote:
Very interesting. Yes, there are so many variables. Would the buyouts be cash or a stock swap?


Cash. IQ doesn't want Airbus stock. Not sure what BBD would accept. But I would guess on cash.

Revelation wrote:
If the buyout needs to be cash, would it be the best use of their cash given all their other priorities? If they really believe in the program they could finance a buy out, but maybe it is better to keep the pressure on the current team. However, if the current team executes well it just drives up the price of a buyout.


Absolutely. And I think Airbus is trying to thread the needle. Keep in mind that Bombardier has to cover up to $975 million in shortfalls until the end of 2021. Above that was to be shared among all partners, with additional shares being provided in return. So all the construction you see in Mirabel and Mobile is all being paid for by BBD.

https://business.financialpost.com/tran ... -on-july-1

This is why I say that Airbus isn't really interested in doing much right now, except focusing on stabilizing the program and making production more efficient. 2022 is when it's really on their books. At that point, if the program's losing money it costs them. This gives them 2 years to focus all their energy on the 320NEO and sorting out production there.

I would expect a 225 announcement in 2023 for a 2025 EIS. At that point, they'll also have burned down plenty of the 320NEO backlog. If they go earlier, it's entirely because the competitive landscape has compelled them to. ie Boeing launches the NMA or NSA and Airbus is forced to respond.
 
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:01 pm

TObound wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Very interesting. Yes, there are so many variables. Would the buyouts be cash or a stock swap?


Cash. IQ doesn't want Airbus stock. Not sure what BBD would accept. But I would guess on cash.

Revelation wrote:
If the buyout needs to be cash, would it be the best use of their cash given all their other priorities? If they really believe in the program they could finance a buy out, but maybe it is better to keep the pressure on the current team. However, if the current team executes well it just drives up the price of a buyout.


Absolutely. And I think Airbus is trying to thread the needle. Keep in mind that Bombardier has to cover up to $975 million in shortfalls until the end of 2021. Above that was to be shared among all partners, with additional shares being provided in return. So all the construction you see in Mirabel and Mobile is all being paid for by BBD.

https://business.financialpost.com/tran ... -on-july-1

This is why I say that Airbus isn't really interested in doing much right now, except focusing on stabilizing the program and making production more efficient. 2022 is when it's really on their books. At that point, if the program's losing money it costs them. This gives them 2 years to focus all their energy on the 320NEO and sorting out production there.

I would expect a 225 announcement in 2023 for a 2025 EIS. At that point, they'll also have burned down plenty of the 320NEO backlog. If they go earlier, it's entirely because the competitive landscape has compelled them to. ie Boeing launches the NMA or NSA and Airbus is forced to respond.

Thanks for the excellent and detailed post.

From what I read earlier, the BFM build out is being done by Airbus, with the resulting facilities being leased back to CSALP, so in essence BBD is paying for the first several years of use.
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TObound
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:32 pm

Revelation wrote:
Thanks for the excellent and detailed post.

From what I read earlier, the BFM build out is being done by Airbus, with the resulting facilities being leased back to CSALP, so in essence BBD is paying for the first several years of use.


I don't think the 225 is a matter of "never". I think it's a matter of when. I would think/hope, Airbus has learned from the MAX fiasco that doubling down on old tech is a recipe for eventual failure, despite the attractive profits in the interim. They have an all new narrowbody design that offers them substantial advantage, that they acquired at no cost really. Compare that to the billions that Boeing spent getting an E2 program that's getting squeezed by the MRJ and the 220. This is a massive advantage that only a fool wouldn't press. So my guess is sometime around 2023, when they have built up 220 production facilities, stabilized the supplier chain, ramped up the 320NEO properly and prepared the supply chain to go up on both programs. Really looks to me like they are doing all the background work to make a move. 2023 is also when the clauses to buy out Investment Quebec come in.

I have never bought the 225 is competing against the 320NEO argument. With Airbus controlling the sales of both, they can make sure that the 225 is never manufactured at a rate that would hurt 320NEO margins or Airbus overall take. And they can even give the early slots to customers who are buying or upgauging to the 321. If production issues are sorted out, the 225's efficiency should result in a higher sales margin too. Which should help compensate that split with whatever partners are left when they launch. They can be strategic enough with both programs to boost profits and cut into Boeing's marketshare.

The real "unkown unknown" is what Airbus would do if there were a customer willing to place a sufficiently large launch order for the 225.
 
rheinwaldner
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:45 pm

TObound wrote:
The real "unkown unknown" is what Airbus would do if there were a customer willing to place a sufficiently large launch order for the 225.

Write it gladly into the order book of course! The only thing better than a aircraft family, which is highly demanded, are two highly demanded aircraft families!
Many things are difficult, all things are possible!
 
ZPhoto
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:54 am

Who would design and build the new A220-500? Airbus and Bombardier (Airbus Canada Limited Partnership) or Airbus alone this time?
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:27 am

TObound wrote:
There's the argument that the 320 competes against the 220-500.

I don't buy it. Airbus controls production and sales of the 220 and the 320 NEO families. They can optimize sales and production rates to ensure that overall profit is higher, even with the cut they might have to pay BBD. And the performance that the 220-500 would have means they could ask for some decent pricing.

It's too early for Airbus to show their cards though. They need to get the production line in Mirabel sorted out, complete the ramp successfully in Mobile, finish all the major PIPs that will enable growth to the -500 and sort out the ownership issues with the program. And that's all aside from ramping up on the 320NEO. This is all going to take 4-5 years anyway. So why show their cards early?


All that changed is the competition moving from external to internal. Trying to manipulate demand by adjusting production rates isn't a good idea under a monopoly, let alone a duopoly. Airbus's manufacturing costs would continue to go up with two aircraft fighting for the same market, and their pricing would suffer as they they're now forced to sell based on production, not demand.

The A223 already competes enough with the A320. Moving that into a much stronger competition with the A225 is a major issue for Airbus, and I just don't see an A225 anytime soon, if ever.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:55 am

ZPhoto wrote:
Who would design and build the new A220-500? Airbus and Bombardier (Airbus Canada Limited Partnership) or Airbus alone this time?


The CSeries people / Airbus Canada. I've seen no intentions to move away people / knowledge for this program.
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