RainerBoeing777
Topic Author
Posts: 420
Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:43 pm

LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:34 pm

LOT polish by the end of 2019 its fleet will be composed of 15 Boeing 787 Dreamliners eight of version -8 and seven of version -10, counting with international destinations from its main hub WAW to JFK, EWR, ORD, YYZ, LAX, ICN , NRT, PEK, SIN in addition to having new destinations such as MIA and DEL, on the other hand has its hub in BUD which has destinations to JFK and ORD

Potentially order more Boeing 787 which will be your next potential destinations, part of expansion strategy are Star Alliance hubs.

Proposed destinations would be: IAD, PVG, BKK, SFO , JNB and YUL

It would also be nice to add the Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner in its fleet which is optimal for its high demand missions in New York (JFK and EWR), Chicago (ORD) and Toronto (YYZ).
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
tomgle
Posts: 81
Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:20 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:06 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
LOT polish by the end of 2019 its fleet will be composed of 15 Boeing 787 Dreamliners eight of version -8 and seven of version -10...

I think you mean -9
 
upperdeckfan
Posts: 940
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 1:59 am

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:45 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
Potentially order more Boeing 787 which will be your next potential destinations, part of expansion strategy are Star Alliance hubs.

Proposed destinations would be: IAD, PVG, BKK, SFO , JNB and YUL



I'd take JNB out of your list and add IAH.

Europe-JNB is not as strong as it used to be and WAW geography isn't optimum to attract feed.
748,744,742,741,772,773,762,763,
764, 789, 732,733,735,737,738,739,
752, 722, 717,74M,DC10,DC9,M82,
M83, M87, M88,310,319,320,321,332,
333, 343, 346,359,388,L1011,CR2,
CR7, CR9,CRK, E175,E190,ATR42,
DSH8, CS1,CS3
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:47 pm

They will lose tons of money on this. Mark my words.
 
RainerBoeing777
Topic Author
Posts: 420
Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:43 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:03 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
LOT polish by the end of 2019 its fleet will be composed of 15 Boeing 787 Dreamliners eight of version -8 and seven of version -10, counting with international destinations from its main hub WAW to JFK, EWR, ORD, YYZ, LAX, ICN , NRT, PEK, SIN in addition to having new destinations such as MIA and DEL, on the other hand has its hub in BUD which has destinations to JFK and ORD


correction eight Boeing 787-8 and seven Boeing 787-9
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
Dieuwer
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:13 pm

BOS?
 
behramjee
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:08 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
They will lose tons of money on this. Mark my words.


Very true

LOT announces new 5 weekly Delhi-Warsaw flights effective 17Sep using a B788. The flight schedule caters largely to EU traffic as only one way connections to North America exist.

The P2P market demand isn’t large enough (28,000 pax round trip in 2017) to generate a decent base load plus yields overall will be very low since majority of their traffic base on this route will be low yielding VFR. I would forecast this route being suspended within 2 years due to heavy losses.

The average paid market fare WAW DEL one way last year was only $247 with YQ included !
 
klm617
Posts: 4476
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:36 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
LOT polish by the end of 2019 its fleet will be composed of 15 Boeing 787 Dreamliners eight of version -8 and seven of version -10, counting with international destinations from its main hub WAW to JFK, EWR, ORD, YYZ, LAX, ICN , NRT, PEK, SIN in addition to having new destinations such as MIA and DEL, on the other hand has its hub in BUD which has destinations to JFK and ORD

Potentially order more Boeing 787 which will be your next potential destinations, part of expansion strategy are Star Alliance hubs.

Proposed destinations would be: IAD, PVG, BKK, SFO , JNB and YUL

It would also be nice to add the Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner in its fleet which is optimal for its high demand missions in New York (JFK and EWR), Chicago (ORD) and Toronto (YYZ).



It is still beyond me why Detroit is not under consideration with it's large Polish community 2 weekly in the summer months is surely doable.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
Breathe
Posts: 516
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:38 pm

behramjee wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
They will lose tons of money on this. Mark my words.


Very true

LOT announces new 5 weekly Delhi-Warsaw flights effective 17Sep using a B788. The flight schedule caters largely to EU traffic as only one way connections to North America exist.

The P2P market demand isn’t large enough (28,000 pax round trip in 2017) to generate a decent base load plus yields overall will be very low since majority of their traffic base on this route will be low yielding VFR. I would forecast this route being suspended within 2 years due to heavy losses.

The average paid market fare WAW DEL one way last year was only $247 with YQ included !

Maybe they are looking at feed from the Indian diaspora in London and tourists from other connections within Europe, otherwise DEL seem like a bit of a leftfield destination for this airline, unless there is a large demand from Polish residents going to India?
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:53 pm

Breathe wrote:
behramjee wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
They will lose tons of money on this. Mark my words.


Very true

LOT announces new 5 weekly Delhi-Warsaw flights effective 17Sep using a B788. The flight schedule caters largely to EU traffic as only one way connections to North America exist.

The P2P market demand isn’t large enough (28,000 pax round trip in 2017) to generate a decent base load plus yields overall will be very low since majority of their traffic base on this route will be low yielding VFR. I would forecast this route being suspended within 2 years due to heavy losses.

The average paid market fare WAW DEL one way last year was only $247 with YQ included !

Maybe they are looking at feed from the Indian diaspora in London and tourists from other connections within Europe, otherwise DEL seem like a bit of a leftfield destination for this airline, unless there is a large demand from Polish residents going to India?

All what you mention is horrible yield.

It's really quite simple. As long as you can't lure the business passengers (not only business class, but also higher yielding Y+ and Y passengers), these mini-hubs are doomed to fail. LO's home market of business pax can maybe sustain routes like JFK, PVG and NRT...maybe. The rest, no way. Unless you can get a lot of business travellers to get the mentality of "I'm going from XXX to JNB/SIN/DEL/LAX, and I wanna go on LO!", which is hard when you have an excellent and well-respected product such as that of LH next door. This mentality is what AY, for example, has been able to instill in many markets.
Last edited by MalevTU134 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
behramjee
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:08 pm

Yield and base load demand for them to del is v low hence a recipe for disaster
 
lhrsfosyd
Posts: 209
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:39 pm

Like MIA, DEL is not the best choice. LO long haul is growing too quickly and it's not sustainable.

- small J/W cabin, Y yields depressed therefore the overall revenue will be abysmal
- DEL might near a capital of a 1billion+ country but it is well served from Europe/NA/WAW
- schedule also offers poor connectivity when flying to DEL from the US/CA and dayflight from DEL isn't exactly preferable for business traveller

SFO, IAD, JNB, HKG and PVG should be LO's priority.
 
konkret
Posts: 288
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:43 pm

SFO, IAD, PVG, HKG - I agree
But why JNB?
 
User avatar
Miami
Posts: 6029
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:51 pm

lhrsfosyd wrote:
Like MIA, DEL is not the best choice.

Please; tell me what's wrong with starting service to MIA?
Aviation is proof that given, the will, we have the capacity to achieve the impossible. - Eddie Rickenbacker
 
MAH4546
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:12 pm

lhrsfosyd wrote:
Like MIA, DEL is not the best choice. LO long haul is growing too quickly and it's not sustainable.


I agree with the overall sentiment that LOT is growing to quickly and many of these markets that LOT is expanding to like LAX, MIA, DEL, etc., are over-served. But the Miami is the third largest U.S. market from Warsaw and the second largest U.S. market from Eastern Europe. It's a natural expansion candidate, especially to feed Eastern European flights.
a.
 
whywhyzee
Posts: 1053
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:12 am

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:48 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
Breathe wrote:
behramjee wrote:

Very true

LOT announces new 5 weekly Delhi-Warsaw flights effective 17Sep using a B788. The flight schedule caters largely to EU traffic as only one way connections to North America exist.

The P2P market demand isn’t large enough (28,000 pax round trip in 2017) to generate a decent base load plus yields overall will be very low since majority of their traffic base on this route will be low yielding VFR. I would forecast this route being suspended within 2 years due to heavy losses.

The average paid market fare WAW DEL one way last year was only $247 with YQ included !

Maybe they are looking at feed from the Indian diaspora in London and tourists from other connections within Europe, otherwise DEL seem like a bit of a leftfield destination for this airline, unless there is a large demand from Polish residents going to India?

All what you mention is horrible yield.

It's really quite simple. As long as you can't lure the business passengers (not only business class, but also higher yielding Y+ and Y passengers), these mini-hubs are doomed to fail. LO's home market of business pax can maybe sustain routes like JFK, PVG and NRT...maybe. The rest, no way. Unless you can get a lot of business travellers to get the mentality of "I'm going from XXX to JNB/SIN/DEL/LAX, and I wanna go on LO!", which is hard when you have an excellent and well-respected product such as that of LH next door. This mentality is what AY, for example, has been able to instill in many markets.



This doesn't make any sense, LOT doesn't even serve PVG, and NRT is just getting upgraded to daily this year. What about cities like Toronto which is moving to 12x weekly this year (up from 9) or Chicago which peaks at 11x this year from WAW. Your evaluation doesn't seem to consider actual market conditions.
 
Blerg
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:32 pm

Wasn't LO profitable in 2019 despite the challenges? Wouldn't that mean they are doing something right?
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:41 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
Breathe wrote:
Maybe they are looking at feed from the Indian diaspora in London and tourists from other connections within Europe, otherwise DEL seem like a bit of a leftfield destination for this airline, unless there is a large demand from Polish residents going to India?

All what you mention is horrible yield.

It's really quite simple. As long as you can't lure the business passengers (not only business class, but also higher yielding Y+ and Y passengers), these mini-hubs are doomed to fail. LO's home market of business pax can maybe sustain routes like JFK, PVG and NRT...maybe. The rest, no way. Unless you can get a lot of business travellers to get the mentality of "I'm going from XXX to JNB/SIN/DEL/LAX, and I wanna go on LO!", which is hard when you have an excellent and well-respected product such as that of LH next door. This mentality is what AY, for example, has been able to instill in many markets.



This doesn't make any sense, LOT doesn't even serve PVG, and NRT is just getting upgraded to daily this year. What about cities like Toronto which is moving to 12x weekly this year (up from 9) or Chicago which peaks at 11x this year from WAW. Your evaluation doesn't seem to consider actual market conditions.

Neither of ORD or YYZ is business heavy. Both are mainly VFR destinations for LO. They may have volume, and I really don't know, I don't have the numbers, but I would be really surprised if any of those flights actually makes money.
I just mentioned those 3 (JFK, PVG and NRT) as examples of major destinations where local Polish business may - just may - help enough to support a flight.
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:42 pm

Blerg wrote:
Wasn't LO profitable in 2019 despite the challenges? Wouldn't that mean they are doing something right?

2019...who knows?
2018....only their accountants know
2017...interesting question. Anybody knows?
 
babastud
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:45 pm

Didin't they have a plan to open SFO?
 
LH658
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:45 pm

IAH maybe, they can get some feed from UA, from traffic from down south.
 
MalevTU134
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:08 pm

LH658 wrote:
IAH maybe, they can get some feed from UA, from traffic from down south.

Pleaaaaase can you explain the logical connection between IAH and WAW? Something that gives enough high-paying pax to fill a 787 a day? WAW-IAH-XXX or IAH-WAW-YYY. What possible, realistic XXXs and YYYs do you see? Or how will IAH-WAW O/D traffic be stimulated?...
 
lhrsfosyd
Posts: 209
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:47 pm

konkret wrote:
SFO, IAD, PVG, HKG - I agree
But why JNB?


For a flight of similar length, yields to JNB are much higher than to MIA. There is also a large partner hub in JNB where in MIA there is none.
 
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Pudelhund
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:54 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
But the Miami is the third largest U.S. market from Warsaw and the second largest U.S. market from Eastern Europe.


Where do you find this information?
 
santi319
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:58 pm

What happened to their BUD and PRG long haul flights?
 
lhrsfosyd
Posts: 209
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:00 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
lhrsfosyd wrote:
Like MIA, DEL is not the best choice. LO long haul is growing too quickly and it's not sustainable.


I agree with the overall sentiment that LOT is growing to quickly and many of these markets that LOT is expanding to like LAX, MIA, DEL, etc., are over-served. But the Miami is the third largest U.S. market from Warsaw and the second largest U.S. market from Eastern Europe. It's a natural expansion candidate, especially to feed Eastern European flights.


Neither Eastern Europe nor WAW attract high volume high yield. Opening up new routes for profitable airlines isn't based on volume but yield. Sometimes much thinner markets attract much higher profits. All the non hub routes they have opened up in recent years are absolute madness subsidised by poor taxpayers.
 
MalevTU134
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Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:07 pm

lhrsfosyd wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
lhrsfosyd wrote:
Like MIA, DEL is not the best choice. LO long haul is growing too quickly and it's not sustainable.


I agree with the overall sentiment that LOT is growing to quickly and many of these markets that LOT is expanding to like LAX, MIA, DEL, etc., are over-served. But the Miami is the third largest U.S. market from Warsaw and the second largest U.S. market from Eastern Europe. It's a natural expansion candidate, especially to feed Eastern European flights.


Neither Eastern Europe nor WAW attract high volume high yield. Opening up new routes for profitable airlines isn't based on volume but yield. Sometimes much thinner markets attract much higher profits. All the non hub routes they have opened up in recent years are absolute madness subsidised by poor taxpayers.

100% correct, all of it.
 
MalevTU134
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:10 pm

lhrsfosyd wrote:
konkret wrote:
SFO, IAD, PVG, HKG - I agree
But why JNB?


For a flight of similar length, yields to JNB are much higher than to MIA. There is also a large partner hub in JNB where in MIA there is none.

JNB is more of a no-go than any of the others. Low demand, low yield. Hub in JNB? Where to? Antarctica?? Even SA struggles to make their JNB hub work (even if that airline has other, more serious, issues).
 
lhrsfosyd
Posts: 209
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2016 4:57 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:18 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
lhrsfosyd wrote:
konkret wrote:
SFO, IAD, PVG, HKG - I agree
But why JNB?


For a flight of similar length, yields to JNB are much higher than to MIA. There is also a large partner hub in JNB where in MIA there is none.

JNB is more of a no-go than any of the others. Low demand, low yield. Hub in JNB? Where to? Antarctica?? Even SA struggles to make their JNB hub work (even if that airline has other, more serious, issues).


Demand to South Africa from Western Europe is high, especially in Northern hemisphere winter. So are the yields.

SA has a large hub in JNB providing connectivity to the rest of the country as well as other neighbouring countries. Plenty of European airlines make money flying to South Africa not sure how SA's profitability is relevant?
 
MalevTU134
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Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:30 pm

lhrsfosyd wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
lhrsfosyd wrote:

For a flight of similar length, yields to JNB are much higher than to MIA. There is also a large partner hub in JNB where in MIA there is none.

JNB is more of a no-go than any of the others. Low demand, low yield. Hub in JNB? Where to? Antarctica?? Even SA struggles to make their JNB hub work (even if that airline has other, more serious, issues).


Demand to South Africa from Western Europe is high, especially in Northern hemisphere winter. So are the yields.

SA has a large hub in JNB providing connectivity to the rest of the country as well as other neighbouring countries. Plenty of European airlines make money flying to South Africa not sure how SA's profitability is relevant?

Yes, but none of those airlines flies out of WAW, but rather from the likes of LHR, AMS, FRA and CDG. And they have truly worldwide connections to feed their JNB flights. A slight difference there...
Neighbouring countries...Ok, let's see. Would WAW-GBE support this flight? WAW-HRE, or WAW-MPM?
The last time an Eastern European airline served JNB was LZ (Balkan Bulgarian) in the 1990s with TU154s, and 2 stops on the way. Nothing since. There just may be a reason for that.
 
nomorerjs
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Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 10:24 am

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:50 pm

Reply 5: BOS
Reply 7: DTW

What a shock!
 
nomorerjs
Posts: 876
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 10:24 am

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:52 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
LH658 wrote:
IAH maybe, they can get some feed from UA, from traffic from down south.

Pleaaaaase can you explain the logical connection between IAH and WAW? Something that gives enough high-paying pax to fill a 787 a day? WAW-IAH-XXX or IAH-WAW-YYY. What possible, realistic XXXs and YYYs do you see? Or how will IAH-WAW O/D traffic be stimulated?...


IAH-WAW? Not going to happen. What is the O&D from IAH to Poland? Heck, what is the O&D for Texas to Poland?
 
whywhyzee
Posts: 1053
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:12 am

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:54 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
All what you mention is horrible yield.

It's really quite simple. As long as you can't lure the business passengers (not only business class, but also higher yielding Y+ and Y passengers), these mini-hubs are doomed to fail. LO's home market of business pax can maybe sustain routes like JFK, PVG and NRT...maybe. The rest, no way. Unless you can get a lot of business travellers to get the mentality of "I'm going from XXX to JNB/SIN/DEL/LAX, and I wanna go on LO!", which is hard when you have an excellent and well-respected product such as that of LH next door. This mentality is what AY, for example, has been able to instill in many markets.



This doesn't make any sense, LOT doesn't even serve PVG, and NRT is just getting upgraded to daily this year. What about cities like Toronto which is moving to 12x weekly this year (up from 9) or Chicago which peaks at 11x this year from WAW. Your evaluation doesn't seem to consider actual market conditions.

Neither of ORD or YYZ is business heavy. Both are mainly VFR destinations for LO. They may have volume, and I really don't know, I don't have the numbers, but I would be really surprised if any of those flights actually makes money.
I just mentioned those 3 (JFK, PVG and NRT) as examples of major destinations where local Polish business may - just may - help enough to support a flight.


If they didn't make money, why would they increase them and not open a route such as PVG, or shift frequency to JFK or NRT which you say would make money? Are you suggesting they don't wish to make money?

It's likely a very fair assumption that they have decided to add flights where they make money, it stands to reason...
 
RainerBoeing777
Topic Author
Posts: 420
Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:43 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:58 pm

santi319 wrote:
What happened to their BUD and PRG long haul flights?


LOT Polish only has long haul flights in BUD from JFK and ORD, but the most sensible thing is to consolidate these routes before launching new ones, JFK operates with 4 weekly flights and BUD 2 weekly flights
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG
 
klm617
Posts: 4476
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:25 pm

nomorerjs wrote:
Reply 5: BOS
Reply 7: DTW

What a shock!


Just incase you weren't aware. Michigan was 3rd in the country as far as Polish population goes. Hence why DTW should have a link to Poland and don't think for a minute that ORD does benefit from the Polish population in Michigan.


01. New York (986,141)
02. Illinois (932,996)
03. Michigan (854,844)
Last edited by klm617 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:25 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:


This doesn't make any sense, LOT doesn't even serve PVG, and NRT is just getting upgraded to daily this year. What about cities like Toronto which is moving to 12x weekly this year (up from 9) or Chicago which peaks at 11x this year from WAW. Your evaluation doesn't seem to consider actual market conditions.

Neither of ORD or YYZ is business heavy. Both are mainly VFR destinations for LO. They may have volume, and I really don't know, I don't have the numbers, but I would be really surprised if any of those flights actually makes money.
I just mentioned those 3 (JFK, PVG and NRT) as examples of major destinations where local Polish business may - just may - help enough to support a flight.


If they didn't make money, why would they increase them and not open a route such as PVG, or shift frequency to JFK or NRT which you say would make money? Are you suggesting they don't wish to make money?

It's likely a very fair assumption that they have decided to add flights where they make money, it stands to reason...

I haven't said they would make money on JFK, NRT or PVG. Just that business-heavy markets like those is where they stand a chance to make money. I don't have the numbers for WAW to Asia (PDEWs, yields etc.), but the numbers for WAW are not there for year-round operations from any city in North America. This I can tell you from first-hand knowledge.

As to your question to why they would increase ORD and YYZ rather than start PVG: maybe (or most probably) they figure that this is how they lose the least amount of money.
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:27 pm

klm617 wrote:
nomorerjs wrote:
Reply 5: BOS
Reply 7: DTW

What a shock!


Just incase you weren't aware. Michigan was 3rd in the country as far as Polish population goes. Hence why DTW should have a link to Poland and don't think for a minute that ORD does benefit from the Polish population in Michigan.


01. New York (986,141)
02. Illinois (932,996)
03. Michigan (854,844)

Where have you been all day? OF COURSE Detroit needs a flight to WAW. And to GDN. And KRK as well, once we are at it...
 
cityshuttle
Posts: 92
Joined: Mon Jan 02, 2017 3:56 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:25 am

behramjee wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
They will lose tons of money on this. Mark my words.
LOT announces new 5 weekly Delhi-Warsaw flights effective 17Sep using a B788. The flight schedule caters largely to EU traffic as only one way connections to North America exist.


I agree, the flight times for connections in both directions are not very good. Not sure if they weren’t able to receive better times at DEL.

There is definitely demand between India and Poland (manufacturing, IT, etc) - I’m traveling to multiple cities in India frequently via FRA / CDG / AMS / DOH / DXB, and there are always many Polish passengers onboard.

As previously suggested, I would have preferred a split operation like 4/7 WAW-DEL and 3/7 WAW-BOM in order to cover both metropolitan areas. So I’m hoping for WAW-BOM in the future as there should be demand.
 
stlgph
Posts: 10976
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:19 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:30 am

Nice to see LOT expanding to new cities. I've flown them a few times and had a pleasant experience.

That being said, aren't they going to be able to grow "only so much" because of the limited space at WAW?
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
Johner
Screener
Posts: 35
Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2005 8:07 am

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:37 am

stlgph wrote:
Nice to see LOT expanding to new cities. I've flown them a few times and had a pleasant experience.

That being said, aren't they going to be able to grow "only so much" because of the limited space at WAW?


WAW will expand this year - new parking positions, taxiways etc.
However, the space for growth is quite limited, especially during peak times mainly to lack of slots available. In few years time LOT won't be able to expand any further.
That's why they are looking at new markets (BUD) and new airport is planned to be built (should be completed in 2027, but it doesn't seem realistic)
 
Johner
Screener
Posts: 35
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:03 am

lhrsfosyd wrote:

Neither Eastern Europe nor WAW attract high volume high yield. Opening up new routes for profitable airlines isn't based on volume but yield. Sometimes much thinner markets attract much higher profits. All the non hub routes they have opened up in recent years are absolute madness subsidised by poor taxpayers.


Eastern Europen isn't obviously a place with high yields. However, these numbers improved over the years.
As for non hub routes - BUD flights are not doing great and probably will disappear soon (their opening was politically motivated and there are rumors they are indeed subsidised).
In fact LOT planned to base another Dreamliner and few Embraers in BUD starting this summer, but it was put on hold. Trying to build another hub in Budapest would not be a wise move.
As for flights from Rzeszow and Krakow to USA - they are profitable most of the year as yields are actually not that bad, even if it's strictly VFR traffic.
Actually KRK-ORD will go up to 3x weekly flights next summer and mostly on 787-9s.
 
Johner
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:29 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
Neither of ORD or YYZ is business heavy. Both are mainly VFR destinations for LO. They may have volume, and I really don't know, I don't have the numbers, but I would be really surprised if any of those flights actually makes money.
I just mentioned those 3 (JFK, PVG and NRT) as examples of major destinations where local Polish business may - just may - help enough to support a flight.


If they didn't make money, why would they increase them and not open a route such as PVG, or shift frequency to JFK or NRT which you say would make money? Are you suggesting they don't wish to make money?

It's likely a very fair assumption that they have decided to add flights where they make money, it stands to reason...

I haven't said they would make money on JFK, NRT or PVG. Just that business-heavy markets like those is where they stand a chance to make money. I don't have the numbers for WAW to Asia (PDEWs, yields etc.), but the numbers for WAW are not there for year-round operations from any city in North America. This I can tell you from first-hand knowledge.

As to your question to why they would increase ORD and YYZ rather than start PVG: maybe (or most probably) they figure that this is how they lose the least amount of money.


I am reading what you wrote in this thread and it's quite funny to see that you don't know any numbers (you haven't even bothered to check financial results for 2017 - google might help), but you are 100% confident that LOT is not making any money on its key market - North America.
For the record, LOT was profitable in 2017 and will stay in black for 2018.
All North American routes are doing well. One exception is LAX, which had a rough start, but is improving with additional frequencies (will become daily).
Unfortunately for LOT, LAX became quite popular lately with other European carriers (Finnair, Air Italy, Austrian etc. adding new services), so this market seems very crowded.
MIA won't be difficult to fill, but yields might be an issue.
In Asia, NRT, ICN and PEK are also doing well. ICN is performing much better than predicted. SIN had a good start, but it's too early to say how successful it is.
DEL will depart in the same wave as SIN (late evening). Its connectivity to North American flights is not great, but is very good for other European markets (Scandinavia, Western Europe).
Cargo volume should also help greatly. Its great advantage is short rotation, well below than 24hrs.

On the other hand, LOT is running out of possible new destinations that seem easy to fill. YUL, IAD or PVG seem realistic.
With arrival of four new 787s, they will mostly add new frequencies to existing flights.
 
Redd
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:30 am

Breathe wrote:
behramjee wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
They will lose tons of money on this. Mark my words.


Very true

LOT announces new 5 weekly Delhi-Warsaw flights effective 17Sep using a B788. The flight schedule caters largely to EU traffic as only one way connections to North America exist.

The P2P market demand isn’t large enough (28,000 pax round trip in 2017) to generate a decent base load plus yields overall will be very low since majority of their traffic base on this route will be low yielding VFR. I would forecast this route being suspended within 2 years due to heavy losses.

The average paid market fare WAW DEL one way last year was only $247 with YQ included !

Maybe they are looking at feed from the Indian diaspora in London and tourists from other connections within Europe, otherwise DEL seem like a bit of a leftfield destination for this airline, unless there is a large demand from Polish residents going to India?


Since 2015 there has been a lot of young Indians coming to Warsaw for work and studies and there seem to be more and more of them every day. My friend rents a flat to a group of students from India as well, and tells me that there are a lot of Indians coming here on student visas. This has to be somewhat connected.
 
YIMBY
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:59 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
They will lose tons of money on this. Mark my words.


I am afraid that you are very right.

They are squeezed from all sides and rely on low yielding O&D traffic. Warsaw is not well located for any hub, so any transfer passenger is only to seek the very cheapest option.

To succeed, they need very strong cost discipline. (and switch the alliance? They ought to challenge Lufthansa)
 
Johner
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:05 am

YIMBY wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
They will lose tons of money on this. Mark my words.


I am afraid that you are very right.

They are squeezed from all sides and rely on low yielding O&D traffic. Warsaw is not well located for any hub, so any transfer passenger is only to seek the very cheapest option.

To succeed, they need very strong cost discipline. (and switch the alliance? They ought to challenge Lufthansa)

Actually it's very well located for transfer passengers.
Lufthansa Group is obviously the biggest competitor (also through their joint ventures with other airlines from Star)
 
SA744
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:13 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
lhrsfosyd wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
JNB is more of a no-go than any of the others. Low demand, low yield. Hub in JNB? Where to? Antarctica?? Even SA struggles to make their JNB hub work (even if that airline has other, more serious, issues).


Demand to South Africa from Western Europe is high, especially in Northern hemisphere winter. So are the yields.

SA has a large hub in JNB providing connectivity to the rest of the country as well as other neighbouring countries. Plenty of European airlines make money flying to South Africa not sure how SA's profitability is relevant?

Yes, but none of those airlines flies out of WAW, but rather from the likes of LHR, AMS, FRA and CDG. And they have truly worldwide connections to feed their JNB flights. A slight difference there...
Neighbouring countries...Ok, let's see. Would WAW-GBE support this flight? WAW-HRE, or WAW-MPM?
The last time an Eastern European airline served JNB was LZ (Balkan Bulgarian) in the 1990s with TU154s, and 2 stops on the way. Nothing since. There just may be a reason for that.

I stand to be corrected but Aeroflot flew the TU154s out of JNB and that was a Friday afternoon, Balkan flew a 767 and I think they flew 3x a week.
 
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holcakker
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:36 am

Johner wrote:
BUD flights are not doing great and probably will disappear soon (their opening was politically motivated and there are rumors they are indeed subsidised).
In fact LOT planned to base another Dreamliner

One can say they could have started with basing at least one (instead of the leased crap) and the flights would have done better.
 
Johner
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:12 am

holcakker wrote:
Johner wrote:
BUD flights are not doing great and probably will disappear soon (their opening was politically motivated and there are rumors they are indeed subsidised).
In fact LOT planned to base another Dreamliner

One can say they could have started with basing at least one (instead of the leased crap) and the flights would have done better.


They started with their own metal. Rolls-Royce issue with Dreamliners could have not been taken into account obviously, so they had to wetlease something.
 
MalevTU134
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:16 am

SA744 wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
lhrsfosyd wrote:

Demand to South Africa from Western Europe is high, especially in Northern hemisphere winter. So are the yields.

SA has a large hub in JNB providing connectivity to the rest of the country as well as other neighbouring countries. Plenty of European airlines make money flying to South Africa not sure how SA's profitability is relevant?

Yes, but none of those airlines flies out of WAW, but rather from the likes of LHR, AMS, FRA and CDG. And they have truly worldwide connections to feed their JNB flights. A slight difference there...
Neighbouring countries...Ok, let's see. Would WAW-GBE support this flight? WAW-HRE, or WAW-MPM?
The last time an Eastern European airline served JNB was LZ (Balkan Bulgarian) in the 1990s with TU154s, and 2 stops on the way. Nothing since. There just may be a reason for that.

I stand to be corrected but Aeroflot flew the TU154s out of JNB and that was a Friday afternoon, Balkan flew a 767 and I think they flew 3x a week.

Sorry, yes, you are right, LZ used their 762 towards the end of the service. SU, however, seems to have been on an IL-62, via LFW (Lomé, Togo).

http://www.departedflights.com/JNB96intro.html
 
SCQ83
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:14 am

If they want to have a hub to Asia, they should open new short-haul destinations.

For instance, in Spain they only offer flights to MAD and BCN. Many of their competitors like Turkish or Aeroflot already fly to second-tier cities like AGP, ALC, SVQ, BIO or VLC. I reckon the issue is strong low-cost competition (FR, W6) between Warsaw and some of those destinations.

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