konkret
Posts: 299
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:26 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:15 pm

I don't think they would be able to profitably fly to SVQ or BIO with enough frequency to support reasonable connections to long haul.
 
MalevTU134
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:26 pm

konkret wrote:
I don't think they would be able to profitably fly to SVQ or BIO with enough frequency to support reasonable connections to long haul.

Of course not...which is one of the reasons (not exactly those 2 cities, but secondary cities in general) that their long-haul project will largely fail in the long run.
 
Johner
Screener
Posts: 35
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:31 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
If they want to have a hub to Asia, they should open new short-haul destinations.

For instance, in Spain they only offer flights to MAD and BCN. Many of their competitors like Turkish or Aeroflot already fly to second-tier cities like AGP, ALC, SVQ, BIO or VLC. I reckon the issue is strong low-cost competition (FR, W6) between Warsaw and some of those destinations.

Spain is too far (3+ hours per sector) to fly with enough frequencies to attract transfer passengers.
I cannot see any more cities added in Spain, maybe additional frequencies on MAD.
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:18 pm

Johner wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
If they want to have a hub to Asia, they should open new short-haul destinations.

For instance, in Spain they only offer flights to MAD and BCN. Many of their competitors like Turkish or Aeroflot already fly to second-tier cities like AGP, ALC, SVQ, BIO or VLC. I reckon the issue is strong low-cost competition (FR, W6) between Warsaw and some of those destinations.

Spain is too far (3+ hours per sector) to fly with enough frequencies to attract transfer passengers.
I cannot see any more cities added in Spain, maybe additional frequencies on MAD.

But then, who would travel from MAD to ICN or PEK or whatever when they
A) have nonstop alternatives
B) have more options via half a dozen or more other hubs on more reputable (with all due respect) airlines than LO?
I tell you who: the ones who go for the cheapest fares.
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5418
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:42 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
But then, who would travel from MAD to ICN or PEK or whatever when they
A) have nonstop alternatives
B) have more options via half a dozen or more other hubs on more reputable (with all due respect) airlines than LO?
I tell you who: the ones who go for the cheapest fares.


That is why I mention secondary airports like SVQ, AGP, ALC, BIO, PMI and VLC which do not have flights to Asia. In some of those airports, Aeroflot or Turkish are already double daily.
 
Blerg
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:05 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
If they want to have a hub to Asia, they should open new short-haul destinations.

For instance, in Spain they only offer flights to MAD and BCN. Many of their competitors like Turkish or Aeroflot already fly to second-tier cities like AGP, ALC, SVQ, BIO or VLC. I reckon the issue is strong low-cost competition (FR, W6) between Warsaw and some of those destinations.


They have expanded quite a bit over the last five years, they added more destinations in Germany, Nordics, Balkans... they boosted frequencies on key routes across Europe.
 
UWPAviation
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:15 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
All what you mention is horrible yield.

It's really quite simple. As long as you can't lure the business passengers (not only business class, but also higher yielding Y+ and Y passengers), these mini-hubs are doomed to fail. LO's home market of business pax can maybe sustain routes like JFK, PVG and NRT...maybe. The rest, no way. Unless you can get a lot of business travellers to get the mentality of "I'm going from XXX to JNB/SIN/DEL/LAX, and I wanna go on LO!", which is hard when you have an excellent and well-respected product such as that of LH next door. This mentality is what AY, for example, has been able to instill in many markets.



This doesn't make any sense, LOT doesn't even serve PVG, and NRT is just getting upgraded to daily this year. What about cities like Toronto which is moving to 12x weekly this year (up from 9) or Chicago which peaks at 11x this year from WAW. Your evaluation doesn't seem to consider actual market conditions.

Neither of ORD or YYZ is business heavy. Both are mainly VFR destinations for LO. They may have volume, and I really don't know, I don't have the numbers, but I would be really surprised if any of those flights actually makes money.
I just mentioned those 3 (JFK, PVG and NRT) as examples of major destinations where local Polish business may - just may - help enough to support a flight.


You are completely wrong. Chicago is the second largest Polish pop. in the country. The top 5 are NYC, Chicago, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, LA. So flying into ORD they kill two birds with one stone getting the Chicago and Wisconsin Polish pop. Those two combined make it the largest Polish pop in North America. I lived in both Milwaukee and Chicago and Polish heritage is massive. So yes those ORD flights make a killing. Why else would those flights even still be around?
 
Blerg
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:24 pm

WAW-ORD

2016: 188.310
2017: 187.361

Judging by the above numbers, last year there were on average 257 one-way daily passengers between the two cities. That's enough to fill a B788.

Here are some other cities:

VIE-ORD

2016: 140.951
2017: 110.905

CPH-ORD

2016: 137.636
2017: 132.636
 
MalevTU134
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Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:29 pm

UWPAviation wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:


This doesn't make any sense, LOT doesn't even serve PVG, and NRT is just getting upgraded to daily this year. What about cities like Toronto which is moving to 12x weekly this year (up from 9) or Chicago which peaks at 11x this year from WAW. Your evaluation doesn't seem to consider actual market conditions.

Neither of ORD or YYZ is business heavy. Both are mainly VFR destinations for LO. They may have volume, and I really don't know, I don't have the numbers, but I would be really surprised if any of those flights actually makes money.
I just mentioned those 3 (JFK, PVG and NRT) as examples of major destinations where local Polish business may - just may - help enough to support a flight.


You are completely wrong. Chicago is the second largest Polish pop. in the country. The top 5 are NYC, Chicago, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, LA. So flying into ORD they kill two birds with one stone getting the Chicago and Wisconsin Polish pop. Those two combined make it the largest Polish pop in North America. I lived in both Milwaukee and Chicago and Polish heritage is massive. So yes those ORD flights make a killing. Why else would those flights even still be around?

Eeh?? That is exactly what I said. That those flights are VFR-heavy. In case your confusion is because you do not know the acronym VFR, it stands for Visit Friends and Relatives. Those passengers are usually among the passengers paying the lowest fares, so they impact heavily downwards on the average yield of a route. Also, their travel patterns are usually very seasonal, which also complicate things for an airline.
So, while the ORD flight may kill 2 birds, those are skinny birds and don't make much of a lunch.
Was that clearer?
 
MalevTU134
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:36 pm

Blerg wrote:
WAW-ORD

2016: 188.310
2017: 187.361

Judging by the above numbers, last year there were on average 257 one-way daily passengers between the two cities. That's enough to fill a B788.

Here are some other cities:

VIE-ORD

2016: 140.951
2017: 110.905

CPH-ORD

2016: 137.636
2017: 132.636

Have a look at the seasonal distribution (month-by-month) of those passengers, and you will see my point. I am sure ORD can make money June, July, August. But that leaves 9 months of the year....
 
Blerg
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:28 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
WAW-ORD

2016: 188.310
2017: 187.361

Judging by the above numbers, last year there were on average 257 one-way daily passengers between the two cities. That's enough to fill a B788.

Here are some other cities:

VIE-ORD

2016: 140.951
2017: 110.905

CPH-ORD

2016: 137.636
2017: 132.636

Have a look at the seasonal distribution (month-by-month) of those passengers, and you will see my point. I am sure ORD can make money June, July, August. But that leaves 9 months of the year....


Maybe so but then again, I wouldn't be surprised if LO had more profits on this route than OS as the former has more O&D demand which usually help in increasing the yield. OS' flight to Chicago heavily relies on connections from places like the Balkans which are extremely price sensitive. I have seen fares to ORD on OS/LH to BEG for as little as $650!
 
Johner
Screener
Posts: 35
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:39 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
WAW-ORD

2016: 188.310
2017: 187.361

Judging by the above numbers, last year there were on average 257 one-way daily passengers between the two cities. That's enough to fill a B788.

Here are some other cities:

VIE-ORD

2016: 140.951
2017: 110.905

CPH-ORD

2016: 137.636
2017: 132.636

Have a look at the seasonal distribution (month-by-month) of those passengers, and you will see my point. I am sure ORD can make money June, July, August. But that leaves 9 months of the year....


North America-Europe market is seasonal by principle. WAW-ORD is one of the strongest routes for LOT. It's well positioned on this market and simply flying daily (instead of 11-12x) during low season.
I am not sure what you are trying to proove. LOT is making money for the time being another year in a row. Margins can be better obviously, but we shall see how things evolve when downturn comes.
For now, even though LOT is expanding rapidly and many difficulties occured last year (Trent1000 issue, strike etc.), things look optimistic.
 
klm617
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:43 pm

UWPAviation wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
whywhyzee wrote:


This doesn't make any sense, LOT doesn't even serve PVG, and NRT is just getting upgraded to daily this year. What about cities like Toronto which is moving to 12x weekly this year (up from 9) or Chicago which peaks at 11x this year from WAW. Your evaluation doesn't seem to consider actual market conditions.

Neither of ORD or YYZ is business heavy. Both are mainly VFR destinations for LO. They may have volume, and I really don't know, I don't have the numbers, but I would be really surprised if any of those flights actually makes money.
I just mentioned those 3 (JFK, PVG and NRT) as examples of major destinations where local Polish business may - just may - help enough to support a flight.


You are completely wrong. Chicago is the second largest Polish pop. in the country. The top 5 are NYC, Chicago, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, LA. So flying into ORD they kill two birds with one stone getting the Chicago and Wisconsin Polish pop. Those two combined make it the largest Polish pop in North America. I lived in both Milwaukee and Chicago and Polish heritage is massive. So yes those ORD flights make a killing. Why else would those flights even still be around?


You completely forgot about Michigan. Michigan is 3rd in the United States as far as Polish population.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
2travel2know2
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:55 pm

Given the huge number of Polish Pilgrims attending World Youth Day these days, Star Alliance LO kind of lost the opportunity of scheduled seasonal servicie from WAW to Star Alliance CM PTY hub. Seems LO only had charters.
Pretty sure there could have been travellers looking for cheap airfares from PTY to Europe or from Europe to PTY on those LO ferry flights.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
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mke717spotter
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:33 pm

UWPAviation wrote:
Chicago is the second largest Polish pop. in the country. The top 5 are NYC, Chicago, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, LA.

Since that's the case, maybe it would make more sense to add PHL next? Or is it too close to NYC?
Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
 
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flymco753
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:19 pm

klm617 wrote:
UWPAviation wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
Neither of ORD or YYZ is business heavy. Both are mainly VFR destinations for LO. They may have volume, and I really don't know, I don't have the numbers, but I would be really surprised if any of those flights actually makes money.
I just mentioned those 3 (JFK, PVG and NRT) as examples of major destinations where local Polish business may - just may - help enough to support a flight.


You are completely wrong. Chicago is the second largest Polish pop. in the country. The top 5 are NYC, Chicago, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, LA. So flying into ORD they kill two birds with one stone getting the Chicago and Wisconsin Polish pop. Those two combined make it the largest Polish pop in North America. I lived in both Milwaukee and Chicago and Polish heritage is massive. So yes those ORD flights make a killing. Why else would those flights even still be around?


You completely forgot about Michigan. Michigan is 3rd in the United States as far as Polish population.
Yeah but 99.9% of Polish people in Michigan are 3rd generation and more, people still show up to festivities and celebrate it because it's their heritage. Actually am not even sure that even 10% know the language anymore. I've been to heavy Polish areas of Detroit because that's where most of my family is, and I can tell you I've never heard anyone speak the language. Plus, travel between DTW and Poland is about 12,000 passengers per year one way, and that's not a lot at all if you combine every city an airline can possibly serve. It would be a different story if they did some summer charters, but anything outside that wont happen.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
MalevTU134
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:52 pm

flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
UWPAviation wrote:

You are completely wrong. Chicago is the second largest Polish pop. in the country. The top 5 are NYC, Chicago, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, LA. So flying into ORD they kill two birds with one stone getting the Chicago and Wisconsin Polish pop. Those two combined make it the largest Polish pop in North America. I lived in both Milwaukee and Chicago and Polish heritage is massive. So yes those ORD flights make a killing. Why else would those flights even still be around?


You completely forgot about Michigan. Michigan is 3rd in the United States as far as Polish population.
Yeah but 99.9% of Polish people in Michigan are 3rd generation and more, people still show up to festivities and celebrate it because it's their heritage. Actually am not even sure that even 10% know the language anymore. I've been to heavy Polish areas of Detroit because that's where most of my family is, and I can tell you I've never heard anyone speak the language. Plus, travel between DTW and Poland is about 12,000 passengers per year one way, and that's not a lot at all if you combine every city an airline can possibly serve. It would be a different story if they did some summer charters, but anything outside that wont happen.

Thank you, Sir, for your more-sober-than-most-on -this-website opinion!
 
ManekS
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:55 pm

Any insight into how the SIN flight is performing?
 
klm617
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:21 pm

flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
UWPAviation wrote:

You are completely wrong. Chicago is the second largest Polish pop. in the country. The top 5 are NYC, Chicago, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, LA. So flying into ORD they kill two birds with one stone getting the Chicago and Wisconsin Polish pop. Those two combined make it the largest Polish pop in North America. I lived in both Milwaukee and Chicago and Polish heritage is massive. So yes those ORD flights make a killing. Why else would those flights even still be around?


You completely forgot about Michigan. Michigan is 3rd in the United States as far as Polish population.
Yeah but 99.9% of Polish people in Michigan are 3rd generation and more, people still show up to festivities and celebrate it because it's their heritage. Actually am not even sure that even 10% know the language anymore. I've been to heavy Polish areas of Detroit because that's where most of my family is, and I can tell you I've never heard anyone speak the language. Plus, travel between DTW and Poland is about 12,000 passengers per year one way, and that's not a lot at all if you combine every city an airline can possibly serve. It would be a different story if they did some summer charters, but anything outside that wont happen.


Oddly enough my experience is quite the opposite. My wife was born in Poland and all the Poles I know speak very little English their first Language is Polish. They bank at the Polish bank, they see Polish doctors, they shop at stores where Polish is spoken and the eat at Polish restaurants. For the most part these people are using LOT out of ORD and YYZ which ever is cheaper or for those who travel directly from Detroit they use LH. So it's all about the circles you travel in. In Troy the whole corner of 15 mile and Dequindre is a small Polish shopping district with everything imaginable where Poles can do their business in their native tounge. Anther thing that goes on is the frequent travel of the parents back and forth because they come here to baby sit and do domestic chores while the younger Poles go out and work it saves them a ton of money on child care. So yes there is a lot of travel between Michigan and Poland and like Wisconsin ORD uses all this traffic to it's advantage.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
MalevTU134
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:44 pm

klm617 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:

You completely forgot about Michigan. Michigan is 3rd in the United States as far as Polish population.
Yeah but 99.9% of Polish people in Michigan are 3rd generation and more, people still show up to festivities and celebrate it because it's their heritage. Actually am not even sure that even 10% know the language anymore. I've been to heavy Polish areas of Detroit because that's where most of my family is, and I can tell you I've never heard anyone speak the language. Plus, travel between DTW and Poland is about 12,000 passengers per year one way, and that's not a lot at all if you combine every city an airline can possibly serve. It would be a different story if they did some summer charters, but anything outside that wont happen.


Oddly enough my experience is quite the opposite. My wife was born in Poland and all the Poles I know speak very little English their first Language is Polish. They bank at the Polish bank, they see Polish doctors, they shop at stores where Polish is spoken and the eat at Polish restaurants. For the most part these people are using LOT out of ORD and YYZ which ever is cheaper or for those who travel directly from Detroit they use LH. So it's all about the circles you travel in. In Troy the whole corner of 15 mile and Dequindre is a small Polish shopping district with everything imaginable where Poles can do their business in their native tounge. Anther thing that goes on is the frequent travel of the parents back and forth because they come here to baby sit and do domestic chores while the younger Poles go out and work it saves them a ton of money on child care. So yes there is a lot of travel between Michigan and Poland and like Wisconsin ORD uses all this traffic to it's advantage.

I'm speechless... But I will say a few things so you understand the backwardness in what you say. Or, well...I will make a try.

If these people speak very little English, they must be really high earners, right? :roll: And then they bring Granny over from the village in Poland to save a few hundred dollars a month to have her cleaning the house and looking after the kids. Obviously this only pays for itself if Granny pays the cheapest fare possible.

If this kind of passengers are really what you are basing your claim on for Detroit being a great market, even saying that LO should dedicate a costly resource as is a 787 to fly there...well, then I'm back to where I started....I'm speechless.
 
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adamh8297
Posts: 3123
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:46 am

nomorerjs wrote:
Reply 5: BOS
Reply 7: DTW

What a shock!


One difference is that one airport actually gets the airlines the other doesn't.

LO did mention BOS in at least one article (that was linked from here) in the past along with the WAW-MIA when that one was rumored. Call me the anti-homer, but even with the B6 Partnership, I don't see WAW-BOS especially with MUC/IST-BOS covering a lot of niche Eastern Europe along with the other larger Euro hubs.

Metro Boston Polish population may be shrinking too.... https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2012/ ... story.html
Airlines flown: A3, AA, AC, AF, AM, BA, B6, CA, CO, CX, DL, EA, EL, IB, LH, MI, MQ, NH, NW, NZ, OU, PE, QF, S4, SQ, TP, UA, US, VS, WE, WN

2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
nomorerjs
Posts: 876
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:56 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Yeah but 99.9% of Polish people in Michigan are 3rd generation and more, people still show up to festivities and celebrate it because it's their heritage. Actually am not even sure that even 10% know the language anymore. I've been to heavy Polish areas of Detroit because that's where most of my family is, and I can tell you I've never heard anyone speak the language. Plus, travel between DTW and Poland is about 12,000 passengers per year one way, and that's not a lot at all if you combine every city an airline can possibly serve. It would be a different story if they did some summer charters, but anything outside that wont happen.


Oddly enough my experience is quite the opposite. My wife was born in Poland and all the Poles I know speak very little English their first Language is Polish. They bank at the Polish bank, they see Polish doctors, they shop at stores where Polish is spoken and the eat at Polish restaurants. For the most part these people are using LOT out of ORD and YYZ which ever is cheaper or for those who travel directly from Detroit they use LH. So it's all about the circles you travel in. In Troy the whole corner of 15 mile and Dequindre is a small Polish shopping district with everything imaginable where Poles can do their business in their native tounge. Anther thing that goes on is the frequent travel of the parents back and forth because they come here to baby sit and do domestic chores while the younger Poles go out and work it saves them a ton of money on child care. So yes there is a lot of travel between Michigan and Poland and like Wisconsin ORD uses all this traffic to it's advantage.

I'm speechless... But I will say a few things so you understand the backwardness in what you say. Or, well...I will make a try.

If these people speak very little English, they must be really high earners, right? :roll: And then they bring Granny over from the village in Poland to save a few hundred dollars a month to have her cleaning the house and looking after the kids. Obviously this only pays for itself if Granny pays the cheapest fare possible.

If this kind of passengers are really what you are basing your claim on for Detroit being a great market, even saying that LO should dedicate a costly resource as is a 787 to fly there...well, then I'm back to where I started....I'm speechless.



Metro Detroit has less than 1/2 the population of Chicagoland and the city of Detroit itself has gone from close to 2M people to 800K, but yet has 1M Poles, 1M Iraquis, 1M Lebanese, 1M Sub-Continent, 1M Iranians, 1M Russians, 1M Korean, etc. and enough automobile F traffic to fill hourly 380s in F/J only to AKL, AUH, BJS, BOM, DEL, DOH, DXB, FRA, HND, ICN, LHR, MUC, MXP, PVG, SYD, WAW, and ZRH.

Look at the poster and read the comments on his/her home thread. Biggest joke on this forum.
 
SRQLOT
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:00 am

Wow, there is a lot being said in this thread. Yes LOT did grow fast because if it did not I'm not sure it would be still around today. LOT needs to continue to grow east as well as west, it con't be a seasonal airline. That's why Asian destinations were added so capacity could be shifted in winter to Asia from North America. LOT ticket prices are not cheap compared to the competition, they are on average $200-300 more from North America whenever I look. LOT is not only flying polish people, 30% are transit passengers thru WAW and that number is growing. We all want LOT to fly somewhere. I wish they would fly to Sarasota on days they are not in MIA. There are tons of old rich people here who pay premium to fly out of SRQ. It would be a gold mine for LOT!!!!!!!
LO LH CL BA AZ WN UA DL AA B6 NK
WAW,KRK,FRA,LGW,FCO,ORD,MDW,LAS,DFW,ATL,RDU BNA,BHM,BOS,DTW,FLL,MCO,RSW,TPA,SRQ (LOT,C09,LL40,DPA,6S8)
717 737-3/7/8/9/M8 744 757-2/3 763 788 319 320 321 333 M90 RJ85 CR9 Q400 E195 (PA28,152)
 
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WROORD
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:03 am

OK people you base your responses on preconceived knowledge from 1960s. Just because the west sold Poland to Soviet Union at the end of WWII doesn't mean that the country is in some kind of a isolation with no business connection. There are a lot of Korean, Japanese and Chinese firms in Poland from international to small start-ups. Polish firms are increasingly expanding abroad. US Banks have huge operations centers there from accounting to payroll and middle and back office. IT is another thing. Anyways I've checked a date in April and only 2 business seats were available and 8 of out 12 in Y+ so they're not flying only Polish people to see their families.
 
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flymco753
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:16 am

klm617 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
klm617 wrote:

You completely forgot about Michigan. Michigan is 3rd in the United States as far as Polish population.
Yeah but 99.9% of Polish people in Michigan are 3rd generation and more, people still show up to festivities and celebrate it because it's their heritage. Actually am not even sure that even 10% know the language anymore. I've been to heavy Polish areas of Detroit because that's where most of my family is, and I can tell you I've never heard anyone speak the language. Plus, travel between DTW and Poland is about 12,000 passengers per year one way, and that's not a lot at all if you combine every city an airline can possibly serve. It would be a different story if they did some summer charters, but anything outside that wont happen.


Oddly enough my experience is quite the opposite. My wife was born in Poland and all the Poles I know speak very little English their first Language is Polish. They bank at the Polish bank, they see Polish doctors, they shop at stores where Polish is spoken and the eat at Polish restaurants. For the most part these people are using LOT out of ORD and YYZ which ever is cheaper or for those who travel directly from Detroit they use LH. So it's all about the circles you travel in. In Troy the whole corner of 15 mile and Dequindre is a small Polish shopping district with everything imaginable where Poles can do their business in their native tounge. Anther thing that goes on is the frequent travel of the parents back and forth because they come here to baby sit and do domestic chores while the younger Poles go out and work it saves them a ton of money on child care. So yes there is a lot of travel between Michigan and Poland and like Wisconsin ORD uses all this traffic to it's advantage.
You're probably right, but like I said, travel to Poland is only 12,000 people one way, it may even be more or less coming back, I don't know. Those numbers are more fit for a 757 going to Costa Rica as opposed to a 787 going to Europe. Opportunity costs are just not there.
...the carriage of liquids, gels, and aerosols are prohibited through the screening checkpoint except for travel size toiletries of 3 ounces or less...
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
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Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:28 am

WROORD wrote:
OK people you base your responses on preconceived knowledge from 1960s. Just because the west sold Poland to Soviet Union at the end of WWII doesn't mean that the country is in some kind of a isolation with no business connection. There are a lot of Korean, Japanese and Chinese firms in Poland from international to small start-ups. Polish firms are increasingly expanding abroad. US Banks have huge operations centers there from accounting to payroll and middle and back office. IT is another thing. Anyways I've checked a date in April and only 2 business seats were available and 8 of out 12 in Y+ so they're not flying only Polish people to see their families.

1) How did you check those availability numbers? Unless you work for the airline, I don't believe you.
2) What route are you talking about? I guess it is a US or Canada route?
3) 12 Y+ seats on a 787?? Is that what LOT has? I haven't checked, but if that is correct, then that mustn't be a very business-heavy layout.
4) If all but 2 business seats are sold 3 months before departure, it is almost guaranteed that they are heavily discounted. Passengers who pay full fare do not book business tickets 3 months in advance.
5) Did you check the fares on those sold seats? WAW is never good yield in J.
6) I bet you those US banks have contracts with UA, DL and/or AA and their partners, and will not use LO unless those carriers aren't available.
 
Blerg
Posts: 2515
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 4:03 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Yeah but 99.9% of Polish people in Michigan are 3rd generation and more, people still show up to festivities and celebrate it because it's their heritage. Actually am not even sure that even 10% know the language anymore. I've been to heavy Polish areas of Detroit because that's where most of my family is, and I can tell you I've never heard anyone speak the language. Plus, travel between DTW and Poland is about 12,000 passengers per year one way, and that's not a lot at all if you combine every city an airline can possibly serve. It would be a different story if they did some summer charters, but anything outside that wont happen.


Oddly enough my experience is quite the opposite. My wife was born in Poland and all the Poles I know speak very little English their first Language is Polish. They bank at the Polish bank, they see Polish doctors, they shop at stores where Polish is spoken and the eat at Polish restaurants. For the most part these people are using LOT out of ORD and YYZ which ever is cheaper or for those who travel directly from Detroit they use LH. So it's all about the circles you travel in. In Troy the whole corner of 15 mile and Dequindre is a small Polish shopping district with everything imaginable where Poles can do their business in their native tounge. Anther thing that goes on is the frequent travel of the parents back and forth because they come here to baby sit and do domestic chores while the younger Poles go out and work it saves them a ton of money on child care. So yes there is a lot of travel between Michigan and Poland and like Wisconsin ORD uses all this traffic to it's advantage.

I'm speechless... But I will say a few things so you understand the backwardness in what you say. Or, well...I will make a try.

If these people speak very little English, they must be really high earners, right? :roll: And then they bring Granny over from the village in Poland to save a few hundred dollars a month to have her cleaning the house and looking after the kids. Obviously this only pays for itself if Granny pays the cheapest fare possible.

If this kind of passengers are really what you are basing your claim on for Detroit being a great market, even saying that LO should dedicate a costly resource as is a 787 to fly there...well, then I'm back to where I started....I'm speechless.



They are not necessarily poor. My very good friend is married to a Polish guy from Chicago and that's where they live. He's fully American (speaks Polish though) but their entire family, friends and employees only speak Polish. Their English is quite poor... and they are all filthy rich from working in the trucking business. So I guess there is a bit of everything in that area of the US. Mechanics there make between $4.000 and $7.000 and they have absolutely no need for English... yet most of them can afford to pay more expensive tickets on LO. Then again, that's Chicago, not Michigan.

Fact is that ORD remains are very successful route for LO meaning that loads and yields are both healthy. Otherwise I doubt they would be increasing it all the time.
 
SRQLOT
Posts: 358
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:05 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:49 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
WROORD wrote:
OK people you base your responses on preconceived knowledge from 1960s. Just because the west sold Poland to Soviet Union at the end of WWII doesn't mean that the country is in some kind of a isolation with no business connection. There are a lot of Korean, Japanese and Chinese firms in Poland from international to small start-ups. Polish firms are increasingly expanding abroad. US Banks have huge operations centers there from accounting to payroll and middle and back office. IT is another thing. Anyways I've checked a date in April and only 2 business seats were available and 8 of out 12 in Y+ so they're not flying only Polish people to see their families.

1) How did you check those availability numbers? Unless you work for the airline, I don't believe you.
2) What route are you talking about? I guess it is a US or Canada route?
3) 12 Y+ seats on a 787?? Is that what LOT has? I haven't checked, but if that is correct, then that mustn't be a very business-heavy layout.
4) If all but 2 business seats are sold 3 months before departure, it is almost guaranteed that they are heavily discounted. Passengers who pay full fare do not book business tickets 3 months in advance.
5) Did you check the fares on those sold seats? WAW is never good yield in J.
6) I bet you those US banks have contracts with UA, DL and/or AA and their partners, and will not use LO unless those carriers aren't available.



Ok wow again, so I see a lot of dislike for LOT here and other threads.

Yes LOT doesn’t have the biggest premium offering because thats l the first time they are trying and it just started with the 787. They have 18-24 business and 21 in premium economy. Yes not the biggest offering and yes they are lower cost l then the competition, and in Y LOT is usually priced higher.

LOTs premium offering has been overall doing well and if you read reviews or YouTube reviews there are plenty of comments that business class or premium economy are almost full.

In Chicago one huge international company from the UK has a $6 million dollar yearly contract with LOT, renewed overt 4-5 years. Out of an $80 million budget LOT has their highest contract. I bet there are other contracts that LOT has in the USA.
LO LH CL BA AZ WN UA DL AA B6 NK
WAW,KRK,FRA,LGW,FCO,ORD,MDW,LAS,DFW,ATL,RDU BNA,BHM,BOS,DTW,FLL,MCO,RSW,TPA,SRQ (LOT,C09,LL40,DPA,6S8)
717 737-3/7/8/9/M8 744 757-2/3 763 788 319 320 321 333 M90 RJ85 CR9 Q400 E195 (PA28,152)
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:27 am

SRQLOT wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
WROORD wrote:
OK people you base your responses on preconceived knowledge from 1960s. Just because the west sold Poland to Soviet Union at the end of WWII doesn't mean that the country is in some kind of a isolation with no business connection. There are a lot of Korean, Japanese and Chinese firms in Poland from international to small start-ups. Polish firms are increasingly expanding abroad. US Banks have huge operations centers there from accounting to payroll and middle and back office. IT is another thing. Anyways I've checked a date in April and only 2 business seats were available and 8 of out 12 in Y+ so they're not flying only Polish people to see their families.

1) How did you check those availability numbers? Unless you work for the airline, I don't believe you.
2) What route are you talking about? I guess it is a US or Canada route?
3) 12 Y+ seats on a 787?? Is that what LOT has? I haven't checked, but if that is correct, then that mustn't be a very business-heavy layout.
4) If all but 2 business seats are sold 3 months before departure, it is almost guaranteed that they are heavily discounted. Passengers who pay full fare do not book business tickets 3 months in advance.
5) Did you check the fares on those sold seats? WAW is never good yield in J.
6) I bet you those US banks have contracts with UA, DL and/or AA and their partners, and will not use LO unless those carriers aren't available.



Ok wow again, so I see a lot of dislike for LOT here and other threads.

Yes LOT doesn’t have the biggest premium offering because thats l the first time they are trying and it just started with the 787. They have 18-24 business and 21 in premium economy. Yes not the biggest offering and yes they are lower cost l then the competition, and in Y LOT is usually priced higher.

LOTs premium offering has been overall doing well and if you read reviews or YouTube reviews there are plenty of comments that business class or premium economy are almost full.

In Chicago one huge international company from the UK has a $6 million dollar yearly contract with LOT, renewed overt 4-5 years. Out of an $80 million budget LOT has their highest contract. I bet there are other contracts that LOT has in the USA.

I honestly don't know where you see "a lot of dislike for LOT here". Certainly not in my posts (which was what you quoted). Very much on the contrary, I have had several dozens of nice and enjoyable flights on LO over the years...which is why I am quite interested in keeping them flying. If being critical to a certain aspect of their business strategy is dislike to you, well, that says more about you than it does about me or about LOT.
To be specific about the post of mine that you quoted, I merely questioned how WROORD got data that is usually only available to certain of the airline's employees, and then I went on to state general facts (full fare tickets are generally not sold 3 months in advance, big corporations usually have contracts with airlines/corporate travel agencies, et cetera); again nothing to berate LO in any way.

As a last note, I beg you to forgive me if I don't resort to YouTube reviews for assessing average load factors on any airline's flights, in any cabin. (And that is, of course, leaving out the discussion about how load factors mean zilch for assessing a flight's profitability, if you don't know average fares.)
 
Bigant0408
Posts: 323
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:26 am

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:12 pm

mke717spotter wrote:
UWPAviation wrote:
Chicago is the second largest Polish pop. in the country. The top 5 are NYC, Chicago, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, LA.

Since that's the case, maybe it would make more sense to add PHL next? Or is it too close to NYC?


I can’t picture LOT starting PHL service with it being a overall Oneworld base heavy. Plus PHL passengers can make connections in LHR and FRA. As a PHL fan it would be nice to see another foreign airline service but highly doubt it’ll happen. If anything AA would start service to Poland once they receive more 787.
The man who sleeps on the floor doesn’t fall out of bed
 
konrad
Posts: 568
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2002 3:54 am

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 3:02 pm

In the meantime, from someone on youtube:
LOT Polish Airlines 24 hour FlightRadar24 Timelapse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEPQ56ZVNCg
 
Milka
Posts: 163
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 7:45 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 3:07 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
Have a look at the seasonal distribution (month-by-month) of those passengers, and you will see my point. I am sure ORD can make money June, July, August. But that leaves 9 months of the year....


You are quick to criticise any decision LOT undertakes and to downplay their growth plans. However, the aviation market in Poland is growing at a very healthy pace and people demand more direct connections.The traffic at the carriers main hub has increased by 5 million over the last two years, Poles are flying more each year and willing to pay for better connectivity. The airline industry in Europe is consolidating rapidly and small airlines are failing left and right and you either grow and expand as an airline or you fail and are relegated to the history books like Malev. Time will judge if LOT's ambitious growth strategy pays off but it is a much better tactic than sitting on your ass, having no plans for the future and getting killed by your competition like your namesake carrier Malev was...
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 4:03 pm

Milka wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
Have a look at the seasonal distribution (month-by-month) of those passengers, and you will see my point. I am sure ORD can make money June, July, August. But that leaves 9 months of the year....


You are quick to criticise any decision LOT undertakes and to downplay their growth plans. However, the aviation market in Poland is growing at a very healthy pace and people demand more direct connections.The traffic at the carriers main hub has increased by 5 million over the last two years, Poles are flying more each year and willing to pay for better connectivity. The airline industry in Europe is consolidating rapidly and small airlines are failing left and right and you either grow and expand as an airline or you fail and are relegated to the history books like Malev. Time will judge if LOT's ambitious growth strategy pays off but it is a much better tactic than sitting on your ass, having no plans for the future and getting killed by your competition like your namesake carrier Malev was...

Ok, fine, whatever. Let's see how many of these TATL routes are still around at LO 5 years down the road. But that's fine, don't listen to me, I only have almost a decade of TATL route planning and evaluation at a major US airline, working daily on a professional, no-armchair-CEO, level with assessing, evaluating, planning and supervising the performance of TATL routes. I know how difficult it is to make routes "work", especially to Eastern Europe. But again: sure, go ahead and listen to those who claim that "the flights are full in July so LO must be doing great", those who refer to YouTube reviews for load factor assessments, and those who think Grannies looking after grandkids is a promising market for LO Transatlantic.
Sometimes sitting on your ass (your words, not mine) is actually preferable to operating flights at a loss. If you look through my posts in this thread, you will see that I pointed out that I have no clue about WAW-Asia potential, as I have never seen the numbers. Thus, I am not critisizing "any decision LOT undertakes", just the ones I know are dubious, at best.
Just a reality check on the Polish market: can you tell me how many North American or Asian airlines (except ME3) that operate to Poland?
 
Blerg
Posts: 2515
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 4:32 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
Milka wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
Have a look at the seasonal distribution (month-by-month) of those passengers, and you will see my point. I am sure ORD can make money June, July, August. But that leaves 9 months of the year....


You are quick to criticise any decision LOT undertakes and to downplay their growth plans. However, the aviation market in Poland is growing at a very healthy pace and people demand more direct connections.The traffic at the carriers main hub has increased by 5 million over the last two years, Poles are flying more each year and willing to pay for better connectivity. The airline industry in Europe is consolidating rapidly and small airlines are failing left and right and you either grow and expand as an airline or you fail and are relegated to the history books like Malev. Time will judge if LOT's ambitious growth strategy pays off but it is a much better tactic than sitting on your ass, having no plans for the future and getting killed by your competition like your namesake carrier Malev was...

Ok, fine, whatever. Let's see how many of these TATL routes are still around at LO 5 years down the road. But that's fine, don't listen to me, I only have almost a decade of TATL route planning and evaluation at a major US airline, working daily on a professional, no-armchair-CEO, level with assessing, evaluating, planning and supervising the performance of TATL routes. I know how difficult it is to make routes "work", especially to Eastern Europe. But again: sure, go ahead and listen to those who claim that "the flights are full in July so LO must be doing great", those who refer to YouTube reviews for load factor assessments, and those who think Grannies looking after grandkids is a promising market for LO Transatlantic.
Sometimes sitting on your ass (your words, not mine) is actually preferable to operating flights at a loss. If you look through my posts in this thread, you will see that I pointed out that I have no clue about WAW-Asia potential, as I have never seen the numbers. Thus, I am not critisizing "any decision LOT undertakes", just the ones I know are dubious, at best.
Just a reality check on the Polish market: can you tell me how many North American or Asian airlines (except ME3) that operate to Poland?


Good for you for having that experience but maybe that's the thing, Eastern European carriers tend to look at things a bit differently than US ones- after all, they don't have greedy shareholders demanding they make billions every year. Maybe LO is happy that these routes are not loss-making and that's reason enough for them to keep flying them. After all, they managed to become profitable. They have to be doing something right, no?
 
binch
Posts: 3
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 4:44 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 5:02 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
Ok, fine, whatever. Let's see how many of these TATL routes are still around at LO 5 years down the road. But that's fine, don't listen to me, I only have almost a decade of TATL route planning and evaluation at a major US airline, working daily on a professional, no-armchair-CEO, level with assessing, evaluating, planning and supervising the performance of TATL routes. I know how difficult it is to make routes "work", especially to Eastern Europe. But again: sure, go ahead and listen to those who claim that "the flights are full in July so LO must be doing great", those who refer to YouTube reviews for load factor assessments, and those who think Grannies looking after grandkids is a promising market for LO Transatlantic.
Sometimes sitting on your ass (your words, not mine) is actually preferable to operating flights at a loss. If you look through my posts in this thread, you will see that I pointed out that I have no clue about WAW-Asia potential, as I have never seen the numbers. Thus, I am not critisizing "any decision LOT undertakes", just the ones I know are dubious, at best.
Just a reality check on the Polish market: can you tell me how many North American or Asian airlines (except ME3) that operate to Poland?

Hell, I've been lurking on this forum for several years now, but this comment prompted me to actually sign up and reply.

With all due respect for your years of planning at major US airlines, you seem to realize remarkably little about the Poland-US market. The TATL routes to Chicago and NY have been around for decades at LO and are very well established, with almost 1.5 million (!) people of Polish descent living in Chicago (which means that WAW-ORD could be seen as a route between two of the largest Polish cities). Take it as anectodal evidence, but I myself (I'm Polish) have three completely separate branches of family, all of which have relatives living in the US, and who visit each other regularly, travelling with their families and all.

Now, you don't seem to realize quite a few things about the Polish diaspora:
1) many of these people are actually quite well-off, and are willing to pay more for a direct flight
2) the size of the Polish diaspora has the implication that many long-time emmigrants to the US don't speak English that well; therefore they are willing to pay much more for a direct (!) flight with Polish speaking (!!) staff on board
3) the purchasing power of the Poland-living Poles is also increasing dramatically; less than 5% of B-type visa applications are rejected. The volume of passenger trafic within Poland is growing like crazy!
4) American business is only getting stronger in Poland

These are some things you might not get from your data at a US airline. Also throwing "Eastern European markets" into one bucket is pointless at best and pure stupidity at worst. Maybe not understanding that makes for why LO has been operating ORD and JFK for 34 (EDIT: typo, was 24) years now and counting and US airlines haven't. Not even taking into account your perception of "Grannies looking after grandkids" (Warsaw GDP is actually well over EU average).
 
SRQLOT
Posts: 358
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:05 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:18 pm

konrad wrote:
In the meantime, from someone on youtube:
LOT Polish Airlines 24 hour FlightRadar24 Timelapse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEPQ56ZVNCg


Nice! It’s awesome seeing 8 airplanes flying into North America.
LO LH CL BA AZ WN UA DL AA B6 NK
WAW,KRK,FRA,LGW,FCO,ORD,MDW,LAS,DFW,ATL,RDU BNA,BHM,BOS,DTW,FLL,MCO,RSW,TPA,SRQ (LOT,C09,LL40,DPA,6S8)
717 737-3/7/8/9/M8 744 757-2/3 763 788 319 320 321 333 M90 RJ85 CR9 Q400 E195 (PA28,152)
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:20 pm

SRQLOT wrote:
konrad wrote:
In the meantime, from someone on youtube:
LOT Polish Airlines 24 hour FlightRadar24 Timelapse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEPQ56ZVNCg


Nice! It’s awesome seeing 8 airplanes flying into North America.

Sobering thought....or so it should be.
 
SRQLOT
Posts: 358
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:05 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:49 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
SRQLOT wrote:
konrad wrote:
In the meantime, from someone on youtube:
LOT Polish Airlines 24 hour FlightRadar24 Timelapse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEPQ56ZVNCg


Nice! It’s awesome seeing 8 airplanes flying into North America.

Sobering thought....or so it should be.



Well yes it is sobering. It could have been 16 flights if Boeing would have managed to deliver the airframes on time and LOT would have recovered sooner.
LO LH CL BA AZ WN UA DL AA B6 NK
WAW,KRK,FRA,LGW,FCO,ORD,MDW,LAS,DFW,ATL,RDU BNA,BHM,BOS,DTW,FLL,MCO,RSW,TPA,SRQ (LOT,C09,LL40,DPA,6S8)
717 737-3/7/8/9/M8 744 757-2/3 763 788 319 320 321 333 M90 RJ85 CR9 Q400 E195 (PA28,152)
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:55 pm

SRQLOT wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
SRQLOT wrote:

Nice! It’s awesome seeing 8 airplanes flying into North America.

Sobering thought....or so it should be.



Well yes it is sobering. It could have been 16 flights if Boeing would have managed to deliver the airframes on time and LOT would have recovered sooner.

Yes, they could put those other 8 frames on WAW-SRQ...a great market for LOT, as you said in an earlier post.
 
SRQLOT
Posts: 358
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:05 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:02 pm

[twoid][/twoid]
MalevTU134 wrote:
SRQLOT wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
Sobering thought....or so it should be.



Well yes it is sobering. It could have been 16 flights if Boeing would have managed to deliver the airframes on time and LOT would have recovered sooner.

Yes, they could put those other 8 frames on WAW-SRQ...a great market for LOT, as you said in an earlier post.


Well now you know that was sarcastic with everyone cherrypicking cities. I can only dream :)
LO LH CL BA AZ WN UA DL AA B6 NK
WAW,KRK,FRA,LGW,FCO,ORD,MDW,LAS,DFW,ATL,RDU BNA,BHM,BOS,DTW,FLL,MCO,RSW,TPA,SRQ (LOT,C09,LL40,DPA,6S8)
717 737-3/7/8/9/M8 744 757-2/3 763 788 319 320 321 333 M90 RJ85 CR9 Q400 E195 (PA28,152)
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:03 pm

SRQLOT wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
MalevTU134 wrote:
SRQLOT wrote:


Well yes it is sobering. It could have been 16 flights if Boeing would have managed to deliver the airframes on time and LOT would have recovered sooner.

Yes, they could put those other 8 frames on WAW-SRQ...a great market for LOT, as you said in an earlier post.


Well now you know that was sarcastic with everyone cherrypicking cities. I can only dream :)

But if it's as a triangle route with DTW, then we can satisfy more wet dreams with a single flight ;)
 
SRQLOT
Posts: 358
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:05 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:35 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
SRQLOT wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
MalevTU134 wrote:
Yes, they could put those other 8 frames on WAW-SRQ...a great market for LOT, as you said in an earlier post.


Well now you know that was sarcastic with everyone cherrypicking cities. I can only dream :)

But if it's as a triangle route with DTW, then we can satisfy more wet dreams with a single flight ;)



Since so often LOT is an afterthought on anet I figure I’ll try to get to 100 replys on here

So here are my suggestions for LOT

FLL to connect with B6 to the Caribbean
MCO for Disney
DTW for polish diaspora
PIT for more polish diaspora
BDL for polish diaspora
DCA for politicians
DEN for some polish diaspora and tourism
LAS for fun
DFW or IAH for gas and oil
Of course in Canada Montreal and Vancouver.
LO LH CL BA AZ WN UA DL AA B6 NK
WAW,KRK,FRA,LGW,FCO,ORD,MDW,LAS,DFW,ATL,RDU BNA,BHM,BOS,DTW,FLL,MCO,RSW,TPA,SRQ (LOT,C09,LL40,DPA,6S8)
717 737-3/7/8/9/M8 744 757-2/3 763 788 319 320 321 333 M90 RJ85 CR9 Q400 E195 (PA28,152)
 
filipair
Posts: 161
Joined: Fri May 14, 2010 3:28 am

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:17 pm

I can't figure out why so much hate. LOT has publicly stated that longhaul flying generates the majority of the profit for the airline. Launching East Asia flights in the last 4 years has been a huge success. See NRT starting 3 weekly in 2016, seeing steady upgauges, and going daily this summer. See ICN almost immediately getting upgauged from 3 to 5 weekly (would be daily but Korea doesn't want to increase the bilateral). PEK no slots for now and SIN is less than a year old. DEL is exciting. And that brings me to North America where LOT has been very strong for a long time (thank you earlier posters). LAX has been a success, largely in the second year of operations with improved load factors over 2017 (without dropping prices)- and it goes daily this summer. YUL, IAD and SFO are next.

Honestly I think it's just difficult for people to get used to the fact that Poland is rapidly growing in wealth and prosperity. LOT longhaul successes are but another indicator of that
Last edited by filipair on Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
klm617
Posts: 4574
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:18 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
Milka wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
Have a look at the seasonal distribution (month-by-month) of those passengers, and you will see my point. I am sure ORD can make money June, July, August. But that leaves 9 months of the year....


You are quick to criticise any decision LOT undertakes and to downplay their growth plans. However, the aviation market in Poland is growing at a very healthy pace and people demand more direct connections.The traffic at the carriers main hub has increased by 5 million over the last two years, Poles are flying more each year and willing to pay for better connectivity. The airline industry in Europe is consolidating rapidly and small airlines are failing left and right and you either grow and expand as an airline or you fail and are relegated to the history books like Malev. Time will judge if LOT's ambitious growth strategy pays off but it is a much better tactic than sitting on your ass, having no plans for the future and getting killed by your competition like your namesake carrier Malev was...

Ok, fine, whatever. Let's see how many of these TATL routes are still around at LO 5 years down the road. But that's fine, don't listen to me, I only have almost a decade of TATL route planning and evaluation at a major US airline, working daily on a professional, no-armchair-CEO, level with assessing, evaluating, planning and supervising the performance of TATL routes. I know how difficult it is to make routes "work", especially to Eastern Europe. But again: sure, go ahead and listen to those who claim that "the flights are full in July so LO must be doing great", those who refer to YouTube reviews for load factor assessments, and those who think Grannies looking after grandkids is a promising market for LO Transatlantic.
Sometimes sitting on your ass (your words, not mine) is actually preferable to operating flights at a loss. If you look through my posts in this thread, you will see that I pointed out that I have no clue about WAW-Asia potential, as I have never seen the numbers. Thus, I am not critisizing "any decision LOT undertakes", just the ones I know are dubious, at best.
Just a reality check on the Polish market: can you tell me how many North American or Asian airlines (except ME3) that operate to Poland?



You could say the same about Finland but look at the network that Finnair flies.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:28 pm

klm617 wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
Milka wrote:

You are quick to criticise any decision LOT undertakes and to downplay their growth plans. However, the aviation market in Poland is growing at a very healthy pace and people demand more direct connections.The traffic at the carriers main hub has increased by 5 million over the last two years, Poles are flying more each year and willing to pay for better connectivity. The airline industry in Europe is consolidating rapidly and small airlines are failing left and right and you either grow and expand as an airline or you fail and are relegated to the history books like Malev. Time will judge if LOT's ambitious growth strategy pays off but it is a much better tactic than sitting on your ass, having no plans for the future and getting killed by your competition like your namesake carrier Malev was...

Ok, fine, whatever. Let's see how many of these TATL routes are still around at LO 5 years down the road. But that's fine, don't listen to me, I only have almost a decade of TATL route planning and evaluation at a major US airline, working daily on a professional, no-armchair-CEO, level with assessing, evaluating, planning and supervising the performance of TATL routes. I know how difficult it is to make routes "work", especially to Eastern Europe. But again: sure, go ahead and listen to those who claim that "the flights are full in July so LO must be doing great", those who refer to YouTube reviews for load factor assessments, and those who think Grannies looking after grandkids is a promising market for LO Transatlantic.
Sometimes sitting on your ass (your words, not mine) is actually preferable to operating flights at a loss. If you look through my posts in this thread, you will see that I pointed out that I have no clue about WAW-Asia potential, as I have never seen the numbers. Thus, I am not critisizing "any decision LOT undertakes", just the ones I know are dubious, at best.
Just a reality check on the Polish market: can you tell me how many North American or Asian airlines (except ME3) that operate to Poland?



You could say the same about Finland but look at the network that Finnair flies.

Which part of what I said applies to Finland? Not much, if anything. Incidentally, there is an active thread on the business model of Finnair. Go there, check it out and you will see the differences.
 
User avatar
flyingclrs727
Posts: 2471
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2007 7:44 am

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:47 pm

SRQLOT wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
SRQLOT wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]

Well now you know that was sarcastic with everyone cherrypicking cities. I can only dream :)

But if it's as a triangle route with DTW, then we can satisfy more wet dreams with a single flight ;)



Since so often LOT is an afterthought on anet I figure I’ll try to get to 100 replys on here

So here are my suggestions for LOT

FLL to connect with B6 to the Caribbean
MCO for Disney
DTW for polish diaspora
PIT for more polish diaspora
BDL for polish diaspora
DCA for politicians
DEN for some polish diaspora and tourism
LAS for fun
DFW or IAH for gas and oil
Of course in Canada Montreal and Vancouver.


IAH makes more sense than DFW due to its status as a Star Alliance hub. There is a sizable ethnic Polish population in south and central Texas, but it dates to the pre-Civil War era. I doubt it would generate much VFR traffic. For travel to eastern Europe from Texas, they would have to compete with TK which has excellent connections at IST even though they require some back tracking.
 
binch
Posts: 3
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 4:44 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:49 pm

MalevTU134, I've read your earlier responses in this thread carefully.

I think you completely misunderstand the dynamics of the TATL market from Poland, be it NYC, ORD, YYZ or smaller destinations.
As you draw your expertise from "planning TATL routes at major US airlines" it doesn't really surprise me, since as you correctly pointed out no US airline currently operates services to Poland. You also seem to somehow aggregate "Eastern Europe" markets with Poland, which is pointless, because a service to Poland, Lithuania, Ukraine and Belarus would be under completely different stipulations and market conditions.

As I mentioned earlier, some of the TATL routes at LOT have been continuously operated for 34 years, even during the leanest of times. You claiming that those routes don't make money for 9 months of the year is plain ridiculous and a massive misconception. Those routes are very well established and for many years a primary source of revenue for LO.

Also, those "Eastern European markets" are growing. The Polish economy for example grew by 10% in the last 2 years, and today minimum wage buys you 40% more than 10 years ago. What I'm saying is that those preconceptions you have are getting increasingly outdated and maybe the US airlines won't be the ever smarter ones, but the ones holding the bags in this situation.

In fact, the demand to ORD is only growing. LO will be operating 789's on the KRK-ORD route 3x weekly this summer. In fact, I would go as far as saying that if at any point between today and 5 years from now LO operates less than 7 services a week from Poland to NYC/ORD, I will be sending a bottle of wine your way.

Cheers!
 
MalevTU134
Posts: 2188
Joined: Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:04 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:51 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
SRQLOT wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
But if it's as a triangle route with DTW, then we can satisfy more wet dreams with a single flight ;)



Since so often LOT is an afterthought on anet I figure I’ll try to get to 100 replys on here

So here are my suggestions for LOT

FLL to connect with B6 to the Caribbean
MCO for Disney
DTW for polish diaspora
PIT for more polish diaspora
BDL for polish diaspora
DCA for politicians
DEN for some polish diaspora and tourism
LAS for fun
DFW or IAH for gas and oil
Of course in Canada Montreal and Vancouver.


IAH makes more sense than DFW due to its status as a Star Alliance hub. There is a sizable ethnic Polish population in south and central Texas, but it dates to the pre-Civil War era. I doubt it would generate much VFR traffic. For travel to eastern Europe from Texas, they would have to compete with TK which has excellent connections at IST even though they require some back tracking.

You do realize that that list of destinations was a joke, right? Neither DFW nor IAH has even a remote chance of profitable flights to Eastern Europe anytime soon.
 
User avatar
flyingclrs727
Posts: 2471
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2007 7:44 am

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:04 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
SRQLOT wrote:


Since so often LOT is an afterthought on anet I figure I’ll try to get to 100 replys on here

So here are my suggestions for LOT

FLL to connect with B6 to the Caribbean
MCO for Disney
DTW for polish diaspora
PIT for more polish diaspora
BDL for polish diaspora
DCA for politicians
DEN for some polish diaspora and tourism
LAS for fun
DFW or IAH for gas and oil
Of course in Canada Montreal and Vancouver.


IAH makes more sense than DFW due to its status as a Star Alliance hub. There is a sizable ethnic Polish population in south and central Texas, but it dates to the pre-Civil War era. I doubt it would generate much VFR traffic. For travel to eastern Europe from Texas, they would have to compete with TK which has excellent connections at IST even though they require some back tracking.

You do realize that that list of destinations was a joke, right? Neither DFW nor IAH has even a remote chance of profitable flights to Eastern Europe anytime soon.


I agree, but if LOT were going to fly to Texas, it would be to IAH not DFW. If both Texas and Poland continue having strong economic growth, I could see LOT eventually flying to Texas.
 
georgiabill
Posts: 1198
Joined: Sat Mar 01, 2003 11:53 pm

Re: LOT Polish international growth

Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:38 pm

I wonder if LO is questioning their decision to join Star with having large LH hubs to compete with? That being said would LO benefit other alliances or benefit themselves, or seek to form alliances on their own. Not sure if AY would want LO in Oneworld or SU in Skyteam so perhaps forming their own alliances would offer LO longer term benefits. B6 or DL to connect with at JFK to start with. If they partner with DL it would offer an opportunity to connect with DL at DTW if they were to fly there.

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