Fargo
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Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:24 am

Interesting article talking about Delta's Salt Lake City hub

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2019/01/18/fear-not-utah-delta-ceo/

What was interesting was Ed Bastian's comments about DL being interested in launching SLC-ICN once the new international gates open up (note he was not announcing anything or giving a timetable, he was just making a comment). This has long been speculated here, but it is interesting to hear it from him.

Question is, since DL lacks any 787's and this route screams for one, what aircraft would they use? 767's don't have the legs and the A330's/350's are too big.
 
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:29 am

KE could start SLC with their 787s just like KL flies into SLC. But I agree that DL doesn’t have an idea airplane for a thin route like that from a sort of hot/high airport.

SLC is pulling a lot of weight for a market that size. If they can support up to 4 Europe flights a day, one would think they could support one flight to Asia.
 
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:40 am

Perhaps spill some SEA/YVR/YYJ feed to help support an A359?

DL has started to create itself a small problem. Support a LAX hub which can support whatever, while building a SEA hub which dilutes connections and demand from SLC. While SEA can perhaps support a B764 to Asia, SLC would need to demand the volume for a A359.
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BobbyPSP
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:48 am

True with SEA and LAX, but I can see SLC supporting a Seoul flight. It’s a very established hub; surely they have the stats for this.

A Good question is what unique xxx-SLC-ICN one stop connections vs MSP and SEA. That will be the key and if these unique cities can also support with Asia traffic.
 
N649DL
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:53 am

DL actually tried SLC-NRT I wanna say 6-7 years ago with an A332 and it didn't work out. Not sure why, but SLC-ICN seems a bit more aggressive.
 
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intotheair
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:59 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
KE could start SLC with their 787s just like KL flies into SLC. But I agree that DL doesn’t have an idea airplane for a thin route like that from a sort of hot/high airport.


Would a 787 still be too much capacity though? Look at the seat count:

DL A332 234
DL A333 293
KE A332 218
KE A333 272/276
DL A359 306
KE 789 269
DL 77E 291
KE 77E 248/261

It still looks like the KE 787 still has a fairly high seat count, while the rest of KE's fleet generally has a lower density than DL's. All of the KE types listed above also all have F, which might be a tough sell in SLC.

With that said, I would think a DL A332 might be the right plane for this time. Sure, it didn't really work out on SLC-NRT last time around, but with more connections on both ends, maybe it would work.
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:04 am

intotheair wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
KE could start SLC with their 787s just like KL flies into SLC. But I agree that DL doesn’t have an idea airplane for a thin route like that from a sort of hot/high airport.


Would a 787 still be too much capacity though? Look at the seat count:

DL A332 234
DL A333 293
KE A332 218
KE A333 272/276
DL A359 306
KE 789 269
DL 77E 291
KE 77E 248/261

It still looks like the KE 787 still has a fairly high seat count, while the rest of KE's fleet generally has a lower density than DL's. All of the KE types listed above also all have F, which might be a tough sell in SLC.

With that said, I would think a DL A332 might be the right plane for this time. Sure, it didn't really work out on SLC-NRT last time around, but with more connections on both ends, maybe it would work.


Didn’t the A332 have performance issues as well on SLC-NRT?
 
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:05 am

BobbyPSP wrote:
True with SEA and LAX, but I can see SLC supporting a Seoul flight. It’s a very established hub; surely they have the stats for this.

A Good question is what unique xxx-SLC-ICN one stop connections vs MSP and SEA. That will be the key and if these unique cities can also support with Asia traffic.


Noting the caveats that [email protected] is larger than [email protected] and that they launched the route with a 788 which is the perfect aircraft for this sort of route, the success of UA on DEN-NRT feeding into NH suggests that a SLC-ICN in cooperation with KE is not far fetched. The obvious issues are that DL lacks the right aircraft and that Denver and Tokyo are larger local markets than Salt Lake City and Seoul respectively.

Would an A332 be able to lift a full payload westbound on a hot day? If so then that seems like the best aircraft in Delta's fleet for this route.
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:05 am

The 332 capacity wise is the most logical, although they are the 230t versions and not sure about hot and high performance.
 
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intotheair
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:13 am

flyoregon wrote:
Didn’t the A332 have performance issues as well on SLC-NRT?


I recall that being an issue too, though that's only based on what I've read on this site.
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Fargo
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:21 am

I still don't understand why DL won't reconsider the 787-8 so they can be used on routes like this. Get a small fleet of 12 like UA has and use it on select Asian/European routes out of MSP/SLC/SEA. It wouldn't be a huge commitment, but they'd have the flexibility to use the other aircraft they current use on those routes in more favorable markets.
 
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:27 am

Fargo wrote:
I still don't understand why DL won't reconsider the 787-8 so they can be used on routes like this. Get a small fleet of 12 like UA has and use it on select Asian/European routes out of MSP/SLC/SEA. It wouldn't be a huge commitment, but they'd have the flexibility to use the other aircraft they current use on those routes in more favorable markets.


Why? A subfleet of 12 widebodies makes no sense. If they wanted 12 788s to go along with 40 789s, sure. The 359s/339s preclude that.

If DL wants to try SLC-ICN it will need to be a 332. They're going to need to fly light loads on the hottest days.
 
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:29 am

I don't see this working out, at least not in the intermediate future.

SLC-Asia flights would cannibalize connections from their SEA and LAX hubs.
 
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:41 am

FA9295 wrote:
I don't see this working out, at least not in the intermediate future.

SLC-Asia flights would cannibalize connections from their SEA and LAX hubs.


SEA has serious space constraints. Maybe shifting a particular route Asia route to SLC would help.
 
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:41 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
Fargo wrote:
I still don't understand why DL won't reconsider the 787-8 so they can be used on routes like this. Get a small fleet of 12 like UA has and use it on select Asian/European routes out of MSP/SLC/SEA. It wouldn't be a huge commitment, but they'd have the flexibility to use the other aircraft they current use on those routes in more favorable markets.


Why? A subfleet of 12 widebodies makes no sense. If they wanted 12 788s to go along with 40 789s, sure. The 359s/339s preclude that.

If DL wants to try SLC-ICN it will need to be a 332. They're going to need to fly light loads on the hottest days.


What difference would it make? Also, the 332 is still a bit too much plane and would be weight restricted for most of the summer as SLC gets hot.

Realistically, even if they had a 788, it still likely wouldn't be successful as SLC is just too small of a O&D market. It's a great domestic connecting hub, but the international market is limited.
 
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:44 am

N649DL wrote:
DL actually tried SLC-NRT I wanna say 6-7 years ago with an A332 and it didn't work out. Not sure why, but SLC-ICN seems a bit more aggressive.


It didn't work because the A330-200 was horrible on the westbound portion! Takeoff out of of SLC they had to leave too many seats empty and cargo behind. It was just a poor plane on the route. They often had to bump additional people even with seats blocked off. It was just not working if your goal is to make money. Plane couldn't handle the route westbound.

787-800 would be perfect! Neither DL not Korean Air has the plane. United has it, and Denver is printing money. Delta nor Korean has the plane at the moment to make SLC-Asia. I think he is correct SLC will keep growing and will have a route to Asia but at the moment they don't have a good plane for the hot/high SLC.
Last edited by slcdeltarumd11 on Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:59 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:45 am

cschleic wrote:
FA9295 wrote:
I don't see this working out, at least not in the intermediate future.

SLC-Asia flights would cannibalize connections from their SEA and LAX hubs.


SEA has serious space constraints. Maybe shifting a particular route Asia route to SLC would help.


DL needs to focus on building out SEA, shifting anything to SLC would not help. Like I said above, SLC fills its role in the DL network as a great domestic connecting hub, but the O&D market is just too small for a lot of international flights.
 
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:51 am

Fargo wrote:
cschleic wrote:
FA9295 wrote:
I don't see this working out, at least not in the intermediate future.

SLC-Asia flights would cannibalize connections from their SEA and LAX hubs.


SEA has serious space constraints. Maybe shifting a particular route Asia route to SLC would help.


DL needs to focus on building out SEA, shifting anything to SLC would not help. Like I said above, SLC fills its role in the DL network as a great domestic connecting hub, but the O&D market is just too small for a lot of international flights.

:checkmark: Yep. A successful market for long-haul flights needs to have business-heavy traffic. SLC just doesn't have that. With that being said, SLC does have the geographical advantage to serve as a domestic connecting hub, similar to UA's DEN hub and AA's PHX hub.
 
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:57 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
Fargo wrote:
I still don't understand why DL won't reconsider the 787-8 so they can be used on routes like this. Get a small fleet of 12 like UA has and use it on select Asian/European routes out of MSP/SLC/SEA. It wouldn't be a huge commitment, but they'd have the flexibility to use the other aircraft they current use on those routes in more favorable markets.


Why? A subfleet of 12 widebodies makes no sense. If they wanted 12 788s to go along with 40 789s, sure. The 359s/339s preclude that.

If DL wants to try SLC-ICN it will need to be a 332. They're going to need to fly light loads on the hottest days.


Delta actually is all about the subfleet in some cases. They only have 10 73G and a whopping 18 777. If you break that down further, 10 are 777LR and 8 777s.
 
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:19 am

Fargo wrote:
cschleic wrote:
FA9295 wrote:
I don't see this working out, at least not in the intermediate future.
DL needs to focus on building out SEA, shifting anything to SLC would not help. Like I said above, SLC fills its role in the DL network as a great domestic connecting hub, but the O&D market is just too small for a lot of international flights.

Until DL can gulp AS in the next likely merger, SEA will be a tough market to corner for such an Asia concentration. As Bastian points out SLC is "here to stay for DL." I think this forum has the highest concentration of SLC doubters/deniers I've ever encountered online. I highly doubt the SLC Department of Airports would be willing to cough up $3.6 Billion in bonds to redevelop their terminals, concourses & parking structures. It can't be that bad a place if Bastian own's a condo' in Deer Valley (Park City) and not off in Colorado. I get the impression too many on here dislike SLC based more on religious prejudices than anything else.

The only past scenario I could have seen DL giving up on SLC over the past 13-17 years could have come in 2003 when it was questionable if UA would have survived and they would have gone into DEN in a "New York minute" or 2006 if Doug Parker would have succeeded with his highly flawed scheme taking it off to PHX.

All said despite what's stated, SLC has been historically undeserved internationally more due to the lack of international capable gates and the size of its FIS facility, than O&D base. Besides KE to ICN, LH to FRA can't be ruled out, KL has talked about making AMS year around and DL has also has looked at seasonal service to FCO, as well as more Mexico/Central America. DL senses they can do anything from SLC that UA does from DEN or AA does from PHX and compete with those other US L3 carriers in the Mountain Time Zone.
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:47 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
787-800 would be perfect! Neither DL not Korean Air has the plane. United has it, and Denver is printing money. Delta nor Korean has the plane at the moment to make SLC-Asia. I think he is correct SLC will keep growing and will have a route to Asia but at the moment they don't have a good plane for the hot/high SLC.


KE does have the 787-9, though no -8. It's also important to note, as others have said, that both Denver and Tokyo are larger markets than SLC and Seoul. Not that I think SLC-Asia couldn't work at all, but I don't think it would be as much of a slam dunk as DEN-NRT has been given the different circumstances.

While we're comparing DEN and SLC, as a DEN homer, I will say that I think SLC's forthcoming terminal and gate rebuild is very undersized for what it could be. They are doing everything else right though. SLC's layout up until now has basically been Stapleton in a less terrible location.
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:47 am

SLCUT2777 wrote:
Fargo wrote:
cschleic wrote:

Until DL can gulp AS in the next likely merger, SEA will be a tough market to corner for such an Asia concentration. As Bastian points out SLC is "here to stay for DL." I think this forum has the highest concentration of SLC doubters/deniers I've ever encountered online. I highly doubt the SLC Department of Airports would be willing to cough up $3.6 Billion in bonds to redevelop their terminals, concourses & parking structures. It can't be that bad a place if Bastian own's a condo' in Deer Valley (Park City) and not off in Colorado. I get the impression too many on here dislike SLC based more on religious prejudices than anything else.

The only past scenario I could have seen DL giving up on SLC over the past 13-17 years could have come in 2003 when it was questionable if UA would have survived and they would have gone into DEN in a "New York minute" or 2006 if Doug Parker would have succeeded with his highly flawed scheme taking it off to PHX.

All said despite what's stated, SLC has been historically undeserved internationally more due to the lack of international capable gates and the size of its FIS facility, than O&D base. Besides KE to ICN, LH to FRA can't be ruled out, KL has talked about making AMS year around and DL has also has looked at seasonal service to FCO, as well as more Mexico/Central America. DL senses they can do anything from SLC that UA does from DEN or AA does from PHX and compete with those other US L3 carriers in the Mountain Time Zone.


No one is saying SLC is going anywhere. Like I said, SLC is a great domestic hub and fills its role well, but it's nowhere near the level of O&D as DEN/PHX (markets that have more than double the population of SLC). If you think LH, year round KL, FCO will be served from SLC, sorry, that is not going to happen anytime soon. SLC doesn't even have NK in it's market.

I'm calling it now that DL will absorb AS as some point. AS will not be able to survive as it is currently constructed long term. Once DL gets full access to SEA, they will be able to build it up to UA at SFO levels and it will be profitable.
 
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:53 am

The principal reason it did not work is that when people got to Tokyo, there were limited destinations” for connections. But Korean Air, a Delta partner, “offers 80 destinations throughout Asia on a nonstop basis out of Seoul.”

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/20 ... delta-ceo/

Who is to said that DL won't be able to obtain a used 242t 332 or upgrade some of current 332's. Possibly launching with a a339 - I know it's quite a bit of seats, but DL could target the PHX market and other similar spots for passengers that would like to avoid LAX..
 
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 3:12 am

Fargo wrote:
SLCUT2777 wrote:
Fargo wrote:


No one is saying SLC is going anywhere. Like I said, SLC is a great domestic hub and fills its role well, but it's nowhere near the level of O&D as DEN/PHX (markets that have more than double the population of SLC). If you think LH, year round KL, FCO will be served from SLC, sorry, that is not going to happen anytime soon. SLC doesn't even have NK in it's market.

I'm calling it now that DL will absorb AS as some point. AS will not be able to survive as it is currently constructed long term. Once DL gets full access to SEA, they will be able to build it up to UA at SFO levels and it will be profitable.


It makes ZERO sense to build up a domestic hub the size DL has built SLC into over the years and not focus on increasing international connections including TATL & TAPL flights. Like many on this board your assuming the listed MSA is the market, and you fail to include the PVU (Utah County) and OGD (Weber/Davis Counties) in the consolidated metropolitan region (closer to 2.7 million). UA relies very heavily on DEN being able to capture a significant portion of the Mountain Time Zone market, DL is a competitor to them at SLC. There's little doubt NK has approached the SLC Department of Airports at some point in the past and there just simply "isn't any room at the inn" being the old "Stapleton-esque" the obsolete facility is. PHX is the biggest metro region in the MTZ, but is too far south to seriously compete for AA the way DEN and SLC compete for the least populous time zone in the continental U.S. & their resident airline brands.

You're correct we agree about DL acquiring AS at some point. A topic for another thread. Once the IAM question is put to rest at DL a takeover strategy will be initiated.
DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
 
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 3:17 am

An important question is, “Why is SLC-ICN even needed?”

My bet is Ed Bastian is playing politician, trying to excite the SLC base for some Delta gain.
 
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 3:45 am

SLCUT2777 wrote:
Fargo wrote:
SLCUT2777 wrote:

No one is saying SLC is going anywhere. Like I said, SLC is a great domestic hub and fills its role well, but it's nowhere near the level of O&D as DEN/PHX (markets that have more than double the population of SLC). If you think LH, year round KL, FCO will be served from SLC, sorry, that is not going to happen anytime soon. SLC doesn't even have NK in it's market.

I'm calling it now that DL will absorb AS as some point. AS will not be able to survive as it is currently constructed long term. Once DL gets full access to SEA, they will be able to build it up to UA at SFO levels and it will be profitable.


It makes ZERO sense to build up a domestic hub the size DL has built SLC into over the years and not focus on increasing international connections including TATL & TAPL flights. Like many on this board your assuming the listed MSA is the market, and you fail to include the PVU (Utah County) and OGD (Weber/Davis Counties) in the consolidated metropolitan region (closer to 2.7 million). UA relies very heavily on DEN being able to capture a significant portion of the Mountain Time Zone market, DL is a competitor to them at SLC. There's little doubt NK has approached the SLC Department of Airports at some point in the past and there just simply "isn't any room at the inn" being the old "Stapleton-esque" the obsolete facility is. PHX is the biggest metro region in the MTZ, but is too far south to seriously compete for AA the way DEN and SLC compete for the least populous time zone in the continental U.S. & their resident airline brands.

You're correct we agree about DL acquiring AS at some point. A topic for another thread. Once the IAM question is put to rest at DL a takeover strategy will be initiated.



I am sorry , but Delta is not going to grow international much beyond what they have at SLC. There just isn't the demand or O&D market which is critical for survival. I flew out DL from PDX to LHR a couple years ago and then returned CDG to SLC to PDX, as that was the only easy connection to return to PDX. The return flight was about 85% full, and pretty much the entire aircraft caught another flight out beyond SLC. Actually most returned to PDX. I do understand some international flights to catch the connections as it is a hub. But the business class portion was about 60 percent full, not enough for a strong demand in high premiums prices. That's how international survives.
 
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 3:47 am

Fargo wrote:
I'm calling it now that DL will absorb AS as some point. AS will not be able to survive as it is currently constructed long term. Once DL gets full access to SEA, they will be able to build it up to UA at SFO levels and it will be profitable.


1. Delta will not “absorb” AS. DL has no need for AS

2. You are correct that AS will not be able to survive in its current state. B6 will acquire AS during or shortly after the next recession

3. Delta will not gain “full access” to SEA. Delta will operate dual US west coast hubs in LAX and SEA far into the foreseeable future. Given DL’s small presence in Asia and its international network strategy DL does not need a powerhouse west coast hub as UA has at SFO. DL will be content operating profitable hubs at operationally constrained LAX and SEA

All of the above is subject to change if Delta changes its international network strategy for Asia.
 
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 4:24 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
The 359s/339s preclude that.

That's more of an A.net assumption, than anything concrete that DL has ever communicated.

I for one wouldn't be shocked to see the 787 very much in contention for the followup widebody order that they're likely to have over the next few years.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 4:35 am

I feel like any West coast ish medium to large airport .... should attempt to get Asian flights. Its like the east coast airports trying to get flights to Europe.

It all just depends on how much the airport wants to pay in incentives. (East coast airport wise)
 
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 4:50 am

DylanHarvey wrote:
The 332 capacity wise is the most logical, although they are the 230t versions and not sure about hot and high performance.


KE A332s are a mix of 230t and 233t, while DL's should all be 233t. That said, the B789 seems the best fit as a route starter on KE metal through the JV (if BOS does well, that can be up-gauged to a B77W).

As for the Dreamliner, DL would likely be the second airline to plan that as a 2-4-2 plane (DL has a customer base willing to pay a premium for wider seats), negating its advantage over the A330. I could see the B789 in play to replace the B77Ls down the line, in competition with a 280t A359.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 5:06 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
N649DL wrote:
DL actually tried SLC-NRT I wanna say 6-7 years ago with an A332 and it didn't work out. Not sure why, but SLC-ICN seems a bit more aggressive.


It didn't work because the A330-200 was horrible on the westbound portion! Takeoff out of of SLC they had to leave too many seats empty and cargo behind. It was just a poor plane on the route. They often had to bump additional people even with seats blocked off. It was just not working if your goal is to make money. Plane couldn't handle the route westbound.

787-800 would be perfect! Neither DL not Korean Air has the plane. United has it, and Denver is printing money. Delta nor Korean has the plane at the moment to make SLC-Asia. I think he is correct SLC will keep growing and will have a route to Asia but at the moment they don't have a good plane for the hot/high SLC.


No such thing as a 787-800. It’s type certified and marketed as a 787-8. Not sure why some people still can’t get that. It took the Aviation Hearld awhile but they finally starting calling models by their correct designation. 747-800, 787-800 and 787-900 don’t exist.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 5:08 am

gaystudpilot wrote:
Fargo wrote:
I'm calling it now that DL will absorb AS as some point. AS will not be able to survive as it is currently constructed long term. Once DL gets full access to SEA, they will be able to build it up to UA at SFO levels and it will be profitable.


1. Delta will not “absorb” AS. DL has no need for AS

2. You are correct that AS will not be able to survive in its current state. B6 will acquire AS during or shortly after the next recession

3. Delta will not gain “full access” to SEA. Delta will operate dual US west coast hubs in LAX and SEA far into the foreseeable future. Given DL’s small presence in Asia and its international network strategy DL does not need a powerhouse west coast hub as UA has at SFO. DL will be content operating profitable hubs at operationally constrained LAX and SEA

All of the above is subject to change if Delta changes its international network strategy for Asia.


You mean AS might acquire B6? Maybe.

I remember in 1999 hearing people so sure that AA would buy our AS. Then the years of rumors that DL will buy AS.

Hasn’t happened and likely won’t.
 
Fargo
Topic Author
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 5:08 am

gaystudpilot wrote:
Fargo wrote:
I'm calling it now that DL will absorb AS as some point. AS will not be able to survive as it is currently constructed long term. Once DL gets full access to SEA, they will be able to build it up to UA at SFO levels and it will be profitable.


1. Delta will not “absorb” AS. DL has no need for AS

2. You are correct that AS will not be able to survive in its current state. B6 will acquire AS during or shortly after the next recession

3. Delta will not gain “full access” to SEA. Delta will operate dual US west coast hubs in LAX and SEA far into the foreseeable future. Given DL’s small presence in Asia and its international network strategy DL does not need a powerhouse west coast hub as UA has at SFO. DL will be content operating profitable hubs at operationally constrained LAX and SEA

All of the above is subject to change if Delta changes its international network strategy for Asia.


No, DL doesn’t need AS, but it needs to be #1 in SEA eventually, and the only way to get there is to acquire AS. If it doesn’t need a powerhouse hub like SFO, then why the heck are they bothering with SEA? It’s not like the yields there are good.

B6 is in worse shape than AS, they aren’t acquiring anyone anytime soon.

Also, not really sure this obsession with DL being so small in the pacific. I’ve been hearing that a lot over the last few days. Sure, it’s not UA, but it’s not small potatoes either. IMO, AA is actually in the worst position in the Pacific.
 
DylanHarvey
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 5:09 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
DylanHarvey wrote:
The 332 capacity wise is the most logical, although they are the 230t versions and not sure about hot and high performance.


KE A332s are a mix of 230t and 233t, while DL's should all be 233t. That said, the B789 seems the best fit as a route starter on KE metal through the JV (if BOS does well, that can be up-gauged to a B77W).

As for the Dreamliner, DL would likely be the second airline to plan that as a 2-4-2 plane (DL has a customer base willing to pay a premium for wider seats), negating its advantage over the A330. I could see the B789 in play to replace the B77Ls down the line, in competition with a 280t A359.

Korean have some 238t A330-200's that were delivered in August of 2010 I'm pretty sure, yes I just checked, KE have 6 238t 332's. Not sure what the weight limits would be on those out of SLC. Delta I imagine would have close to 210pax on the 788 in 2-4-2, I would fly that any chance I got.
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 5:21 am

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
I feel like any West coast ish medium to large airport .... should attempt to get Asian flights. Its like the east coast airports trying to get flights to Europe.

It all just depends on how much the airport wants to pay in incentives. (East coast airport wise)


I would say any big airport west of Denver is ripe for an Asian flight. At the moment, there are only two that would fit that bill and that's PHX and SLC. Obviously SLC is the focus here, but if I were a betting man, I'd say PHX will actually beat them to the punch simply because DL doesn't have the right aircraft lying around to do SLC-Asia but AA has the 787. The problem with PHX is that AA is too timid with Int'l expansion, but this is a very fluid and frequently changing area where the barrier is more a value based one, rather than a hard technical problem (aka not having the right plane). The recent launch of PHX-LHR on AA metal is a small but important step in thawing the PHX freeze on Int'l flights. What makes me even more optimistic is that like BA PHX-LHR, JAL is also an AA partner and also has the 787 so I would wager a very strong chance of PHX-NRT happening soon, and definitely sooner than SLC.

The issue with SLC is two fold: DL doesn't have the 787, but the even bigger issue is that while KE does, KE is not like DL's other JV partners in that they fly to most of DL's core hubs. AF/KL both fly to 3/4 of DL's big hubs but KE only has ATL so I am skeptical about SLC when they even have don't have DTW or MSP. KL to DTW or AF to SLC is more likely than KE to SLC. I'm not saying SLC-ICN can't happen, but what I am saying is that somehow it will have to be DL that does it because KE probably isn't as interested in flying to DL hubs as it doesn't really seem to be a part of their strategy. KE's strategy seems to be to let DL fly pax over to ICN rather than vice-versa. The tricky thing is that this strategy works from DTW and MSP where DL has the right aircraft and thus flies the route on its own metal negating the need for KE to be present, but they don't from SLC and based on KE's relative lack of US presence compared to AF/KL, I wouldn't bank on KE to fill in that gap even with the 787, as they already depend heavily on DL to do the heavy lifting as is. That essentially leaves a hole that DL has to fill itself resulting in either flying an excessively large aircraft to ICN or a right sized aircraft to NRT, both of which are half-baked compromises. Tricky situation no doubt about it.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 5:32 am

Fargo wrote:
gaystudpilot wrote:
Fargo wrote:
I'm calling it now that DL will absorb AS as some point. AS will not be able to survive as it is currently constructed long term. Once DL gets full access to SEA, they will be able to build it up to UA at SFO levels and it will be profitable.


1. Delta will not “absorb” AS. DL has no need for AS

2. You are correct that AS will not be able to survive in its current state. B6 will acquire AS during or shortly after the next recession

3. Delta will not gain “full access” to SEA. Delta will operate dual US west coast hubs in LAX and SEA far into the foreseeable future. Given DL’s small presence in Asia and its international network strategy DL does not need a powerhouse west coast hub as UA has at SFO. DL will be content operating profitable hubs at operationally constrained LAX and SEA

All of the above is subject to change if Delta changes its international network strategy for Asia.


No, DL doesn’t need AS, but it needs to be #1 in SEA eventually, and the only way to get there is to acquire AS. If it doesn’t need a powerhouse hub like SFO, then why the heck are they bothering with SEA? It’s not like the yields there are good.

B6 is in worse shape than AS, they aren’t acquiring anyone anytime soon.

Also, not really sure this obsession with DL being so small in the pacific. I’ve been hearing that a lot over the last few days. Sure, it’s not UA, but it’s not small potatoes either. IMO, AA is actually in the worst position in the Pacific.


DL/AS would never get past the regulators. And if it did it would require so many concessions that it wouldn't be worth it. And Seattle residents consider Alaska Airlines their baby. You can bet they would be hostile to a Delta takeover.

Lastly, SEA will never be SFO. There's nothing stopping Delta from starting any international route they want from SEA. AS doesn't compete on the TATL or TPAC flights. So Alaksa isn't holding them back in any way shape or form. SEA is just not as good as SFO.
Last edited by TTailedTiger on Sat Jan 19, 2019 5:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 5:41 am

Sometimes I'm still shocked DL cancelled NWs 787 order. DL has the perfect network for the 787 but gambled on the A330 (which is a great aircraft in it's own right) and is feeling the pain of not having a proper mid sized, long haul widebody.

It could've meant their reentry to India with a rightsized plane they same way it allowed UA to restart DEN-LHR.
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
N649DL
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:11 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
N649DL wrote:
DL actually tried SLC-NRT I wanna say 6-7 years ago with an A332 and it didn't work out. Not sure why, but SLC-ICN seems a bit more aggressive.


It didn't work because the A330-200 was horrible on the westbound portion! Takeoff out of of SLC they had to leave too many seats empty and cargo behind. It was just a poor plane on the route. They often had to bump additional people even with seats blocked off. It was just not working if your goal is to make money. Plane couldn't handle the route westbound.

787-800 would be perfect! Neither DL not Korean Air has the plane. United has it, and Denver is printing money. Delta nor Korean has the plane at the moment to make SLC-Asia. I think he is correct SLC will keep growing and will have a route to Asia but at the moment they don't have a good plane for the hot/high SLC.


No such thing as a 787-800. It’s type certified and marketed as a 787-8. Not sure why some people still can’t get that. It took the Aviation Hearld awhile but they finally starting calling models by their correct designation. 747-800, 787-800 and 787-900 don’t exist.


It's surprising to me that the A332 was such a poor choice for the route out of SLC since it's been such a capable aircraft for DL even flying to Africa from ATL. High altitude is a real thing. I lived in Denver for a bit and would tell that this really throws people (but really anything that includes planes, especially cars) completely off. I don't think the 763ER can make it, but can the 764? Not worth throwing an A350 or 777 on the route for sure.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:14 am

N649DL wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

It didn't work because the A330-200 was horrible on the westbound portion! Takeoff out of of SLC they had to leave too many seats empty and cargo behind. It was just a poor plane on the route. They often had to bump additional people even with seats blocked off. It was just not working if your goal is to make money. Plane couldn't handle the route westbound.

787-800 would be perfect! Neither DL not Korean Air has the plane. United has it, and Denver is printing money. Delta nor Korean has the plane at the moment to make SLC-Asia. I think he is correct SLC will keep growing and will have a route to Asia but at the moment they don't have a good plane for the hot/high SLC.


No such thing as a 787-800. It’s type certified and marketed as a 787-8. Not sure why some people still can’t get that. It took the Aviation Hearld awhile but they finally starting calling models by their correct designation. 747-800, 787-800 and 787-900 don’t exist.


It's surprising to me that the A332 was such a poor choice for the route out of SLC since it's been such a capable aircraft for DL even flying to Africa from ATL. High altitude is a real thing. I lived in Denver for a bit and would tell that this really throws people (but really anything that includes planes, especially cars) completely off. I don't think the 763ER can make it, but can the 764? Not worth throwing an A350 or 777 on the route for sure.


No, the 763ER has more range the 764. The 764 could probably do SEA-Japan but that's about it.
 
DLATL
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:34 am

I think people truly underestimate the power of the simple fact of location. SLC and DEN are greatly placed cities for airlines. Obviously that shows considering the Hubs. But yes, Salt Lake does not have a huge population, but you have to think of the entire areas catchment. What is the closest international airport that has a good amount of service? Not much. Therefore, Salt Lake is all that north Utah has. That simply has shown to be significant for the success of a lot of Mountain West airports. So, I think overall, with Delta’s connecting power, KE’s partnership, and the population of Salt Lake (not a huge number), will allow this route to be successful. I think it very well could be tough, yes, and I doubt it would be daily. Some people get surprised by all the service that SLC has, but underestimate the power of location and population. Not to mention airline connecting power. I think this could be a good thing. Also, could the A330-900neo do it? I’ve heard those machines have some pretty impressive range this time around.
 
LAXBUR
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:25 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Fargo wrote:
gaystudpilot wrote:

1. Delta will not “absorb” AS. DL has no need for AS

2. You are correct that AS will not be able to survive in its current state. B6 will acquire AS during or shortly after the next recession

3. Delta will not gain “full access” to SEA. Delta will operate dual US west coast hubs in LAX and SEA far into the foreseeable future. Given DL’s small presence in Asia and its international network strategy DL does not need a powerhouse west coast hub as UA has at SFO. DL will be content operating profitable hubs at operationally constrained LAX and SEA

All of the above is subject to change if Delta changes its international network strategy for Asia.


No, DL doesn’t need AS, but it needs to be #1 in SEA eventually, and the only way to get there is to acquire AS. If it doesn’t need a powerhouse hub like SFO, then why the heck are they bothering with SEA? It’s not like the yields there are good.

B6 is in worse shape than AS, they aren’t acquiring anyone anytime soon.

Also, not really sure this obsession with DL being so small in the pacific. I’ve been hearing that a lot over the last few days. Sure, it’s not UA, but it’s not small potatoes either. IMO, AA is actually in the worst position in the Pacific.


DL/AS would never get past the regulators. And if it did it would require so many concessions that it wouldn't be worth it. And Seattle residents consider Alaska Airlines their baby. You can bet they would be hostile to a Delta takeover.

Lastly, SEA will never be SFO. There's nothing stopping Delta from starting any international route they want from SEA. AS doesn't compete on the TATL or TPAC flights. So Alaksa isn't holding them back in any way shape or form. SEA is just not as good as SFO.


Yeah the people whining about the small cuts by AS to pre-merger routes wouldn’t be able to keep up with all the cuts an AS-DL merger would include. It would be quite terrible for passengers, especially in the NW. Seattle folks may show up with pitchforks. You should have seen the comments section in the Seattle Times about Alaska’s recent 30 hour nightmare flight. Many were pro-Alaska, which is strange given the circumstances and how people hate airlines.

Alaska has been independent and subject to merger rumors for years. Then they went and ate up someone to everyone’s surprise themselves. These bizarre merger fantasies and people getting turned on by Alaska being eliminated are really strange. I guess people want higher fares on here?
 
flyoregon
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:03 am

SLCUT2777 wrote:
Fargo wrote:
cschleic wrote:

Until DL can gulp AS in the next likely merger, SEA will be a tough market to corner for such an Asia concentration. As Bastian points out SLC is "here to stay for DL." I think this forum has the highest concentration of SLC doubters/deniers I've ever encountered online. I highly doubt the SLC Department of Airports would be willing to cough up $3.6 Billion in bonds to redevelop their terminals, concourses & parking structures. It can't be that bad a place if Bastian own's a condo' in Deer Valley (Park City) and not off in Colorado. I get the impression too many on here dislike SLC based more on religious prejudices than anything else.

The only past scenario I could have seen DL giving up on SLC over the past 13-17 years could have come in 2003 when it was questionable if UA would have survived and they would have gone into DEN in a "New York minute" or 2006 if Doug Parker would have succeeded with his highly flawed scheme taking it off to PHX.

All said despite what's stated, SLC has been historically undeserved internationally more due to the lack of international capable gates and the size of its FIS facility, than O&D base. Besides KE to ICN, LH to FRA can't be ruled out, KL has talked about making AMS year around and DL has also has looked at seasonal service to FCO, as well as more Mexico/Central America. DL senses they can do anything from SLC that UA does from DEN or AA does from PHX and compete with those other US L3 carriers in the Mountain Time Zone.


SLC is not underserved internationally. For a market it’s size, it’s served just right...maybe even more than necessary. SLC with Delta is very lucky. $3.6billion in bonds to redevelop the airport was absolutely needed. The current terminal was cramped, old, and unwelcoming...Delta or not.

LH to FRA can be ruled out. Why on earth would they jump into a Delta hub city that is the size of Salt Lake City? It’s not that big, and please, spare me the Idaho/Wyoming/North Utah catchment. Sure, it’s a big area, but not heavily populated. And the LDS church doesn’t fill planes, especially international. Sure, it helps, they’re not buying business class seats for 18 year old missionaries headed to Paris.

Delta can do great things at SLC domestically, but it’s significantly smaller than Denver and Phoenix. It’s a decent sized city, but not enough to provide much local traffic to any Asian destination that Seattle can’t serve, and certainly not FCO.

And this is not religious prejudice...I’m part of that religion.
 
SeanM1997
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:14 am

What Salt Lake City needs is a year round route to London Heathrow (LHR) and not just summer seasonal like at present. This would be better than a Asian service from SLC
 
rbavfan
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:14 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
Fargo wrote:
I still don't understand why DL won't reconsider the 787-8 so they can be used on routes like this. Get a small fleet of 12 like UA has and use it on select Asian/European routes out of MSP/SLC/SEA. It wouldn't be a huge commitment, but they'd have the flexibility to use the other aircraft they current use on those routes in more favorable markets.


Why? A subfleet of 12 widebodies makes no sense. If they wanted 12 788s to go along with 40 789s, sure. The 359s/339s preclude that.

If DL wants to try SLC-ICN it will need to be a 332. They're going to need to fly light loads on the hottest days.


Or a A338 that they have the option for. The A338/A339 have common rating & similar layouts. They can easily add a few of them with the A339's.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:17 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
N649DL wrote:
DL actually tried SLC-NRT I wanna say 6-7 years ago with an A332 and it didn't work out. Not sure why, but SLC-ICN seems a bit more aggressive.


It didn't work because the A330-200 was horrible on the westbound portion! Takeoff out of of SLC they had to leave too many seats empty and cargo behind. It was just a poor plane on the route. They often had to bump additional people even with seats blocked off. It was just not working if your goal is to make money. Plane couldn't handle the route westbound.

787-800 would be perfect! Neither DL not Korean Air has the plane. United has it, and Denver is printing money. Delta nor Korean has the plane at the moment to make SLC-Asia. I think he is correct SLC will keep growing and will have a route to Asia but at the moment they don't have a good plane for the hot/high SLC.


There is no such thing as a 787-800.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:50 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
gaystudpilot wrote:
Fargo wrote:
I'm calling it now that DL will absorb AS as some point. AS will not be able to survive as it is currently constructed long term. Once DL gets full access to SEA, they will be able to build it up to UA at SFO levels and it will be profitable.


1. Delta will not “absorb” AS. DL has no need for AS

2. You are correct that AS will not be able to survive in its current state. B6 will acquire AS during or shortly after the next recession

3. Delta will not gain “full access” to SEA. Delta will operate dual US west coast hubs in LAX and SEA far into the foreseeable future. Given DL’s small presence in Asia and its international network strategy DL does not need a powerhouse west coast hub as UA has at SFO. DL will be content operating profitable hubs at operationally constrained LAX and SEA

All of the above is subject to change if Delta changes its international network strategy for Asia.


You mean AS might acquire B6? Maybe.

I remember in 1999 hearing people so sure that AA would buy our AS. Then the years of rumors that DL will buy AS.

Hasn’t happened and likely won’t.


Alaska acquire B6. Alaska debt to equity is 44.42's, B6 debt to equity is 29.23. B6 has far more assets than Alaska, including JFK slots.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:58 am

N649DL wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

It didn't work because the A330-200 was horrible on the westbound portion! Takeoff out of of SLC they had to leave too many seats empty and cargo behind. It was just a poor plane on the route. They often had to bump additional people even with seats blocked off. It was just not working if your goal is to make money. Plane couldn't handle the route westbound.

787-800 would be perfect! Neither DL not Korean Air has the plane. United has it, and Denver is printing money. Delta nor Korean has the plane at the moment to make SLC-Asia. I think he is correct SLC will keep growing and will have a route to Asia but at the moment they don't have a good plane for the hot/high SLC.


No such thing as a 787-800. It’s type certified and marketed as a 787-8. Not sure why some people still can’t get that. It took the Aviation Hearld awhile but they finally starting calling models by their correct designation. 747-800, 787-800 and 787-900 don’t exist.


It's surprising to me that the A332 was such a poor choice for the route out of SLC since it's been such a capable aircraft for DL even flying to Africa from ATL. High altitude is a real thing. I lived in Denver for a bit and would tell that this really throws people (but really anything that includes planes, especially cars) completely off. I don't think the 763ER can make it, but can the 764? Not worth throwing an A350 or 777 on the route for sure.


The 764 has shorter range than the 767-300ER. So no.
 
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compensateme
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 10:13 am

Poor journalism; the article is misleading. He did NOT say DL wants to serve SLC - Asia, or that DL will likely be serving SLC - Asia. What he said was that much of DL’s future growth will come from long-haul, the new SLC airport will help DL achieve that goal, and that he could see ICN as a good fit for the market. His comments are clarified later in the article. Gotta remember... this is a ra - ra event.

...but that won’t stop some users from using this article as proof DL desperately wants to start SLC-Asia, does not have the right aircraft and completely regrets choosing the 359 over the 787.

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
N649DL wrote:
DL actually tried SLC-NRT I wanna say 6-7 years ago with an A332 and it didn't work out. Not sure why, but SLC-ICN seems a bit more aggressive.


It didn't work because the A330-200 was horrible on the westbound portion! Takeoff out of of SLC they had to leave too many seats empty and cargo behind. It was just a poor plane on the route. They often had to bump additional people even with seats blocked off. It was just not working if your goal is to make money. Plane couldn't handle the route westbound.

787-800 would be perfect! Neither DL not Korean Air has the plane. United has it, and Denver is printing money. Delta nor Korean has the plane at the moment to make SLC-Asia. I think he is correct SLC will keep growing and will have a route to Asia but at the moment they don't have a good plane for the hot/high SLC.


While the 332 had its challenges, it didn’t work because the local market between SLC and Asia is nonexistent; there’s a reason DL subsequently built SEA with the initial intentions to link the West to Asia (NRT replacement).

Quite honestly, I don’t see a need at all for SLC-Asia — no local market, and feeding markets are already served via SEA, MSP or LAX. If the economy remains robust and additional capacity is needed, perhaps.... but we’re still likely a long ways from that point.
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
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cathay747
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Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:12 pm

compensateme wrote:
While the 332 had its challenges, it didn’t work because the local market between SLC and Asia is nonexistent; there’s a reason DL subsequently built SEA with the initial intentions to link the West to Asia (NRT replacement).

Quite honestly, I don’t see a need at all for SLC-Asia — no local market, and feeding markets are already served via SEA, MSP or LAX. If the economy remains robust and additional capacity is needed, perhaps.... but we’re still likely a long ways from that point.


Well said. I think SLC is in the same boat as we here in PHX...there's enough local demand to support some nonstops to Europe, but no way near enough to support a trans-Pac nonstop to anywhere. What Asia demand there is can easily be handled via LAX/SFO/SEA depending on the airline.
Try a Little VC-10derness
 
MastaHanky
Posts: 269
Joined: Mon May 29, 2006 7:02 am

Re: Ed Bastian on SLC: "One of the things I’d like to be able to do is create an Asian route"

Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:49 pm

International O&D traffic from SLC is about 27% to Europe, 20% to Asia. O&D to the top 5 Asia markets from SLC is about 114 PDEW, with Tokyo being the largest. Not giant by any means, but larger than people would expect. There certainly isn’t an imminent announcement, but I could see an announcement in 2021 (after the new terminal is open) for a 2022 launch. The local community would most certainly subsidize the route - they put up close to a million to launch CDG, and $1 million when NRT was launched. It wouldn’t surprise me if they doubled that to get ICN.

LH to FRA or DL to FCO is just silly talk.

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