WPvsMW wrote:

hoya wrote:

WPvsMW wrote:

SFO is not SoCal and is not the PNW. UA is strong at SFO, but not in SoCal, PNW, SE, or New England. IMO, network limitations will continue to relegate UA to #3... or #4. WN is on a roll.

WN's expansion to Hawaii will impact UA more than AA or DL, given WN's gate count at SFO. Just as WN's MDW/SFO nonstop hurt UA ORD/SFO, I think significant one-stop traffic Chicago/Hawaii will shift from UA to WN.

Significant Chicago/Hawaii traffic will shift to WN?!? UA's got a daily non-stop to HNL, and seasonal non-stop to OGG, from ORD, both on the domestic 777s. And a plethora of options on the return to Chicago via LAX/SFO/DEN, whereas without redeyes WN will offer you at best a super early morning departure from Hawaii that might connect to their last MDW flights out of California. Without redeyes, WN will only be competitive on the West Coast.

Methinks you underestimate FF loyalty to WN. Without WN's connections to Hawaii, WN FFs were on other metal to Hawaii. That will change. My premise is that the competitive impact, esp ex-ORD, will hurt UA more than DL or AA.

77H wrote:

So please help me understand with facts why WN will impact UA more so than AA/DL.

ChaseCLT wrote:

I’m sure it’s been discussed plenty, but United does have a Southern Hub.... Dulles.

Why isn’t United bigger at Dulles? NoVa has plenty of Fortune 500’s and a business community where it’s comvenient. Lots of O&D.

Are the fees at IAD just that high?

compensateme wrote:

It’s kinda silly to assume WN won’t operate redeyes from Hawaii, since that would cut off a large portion of its network from connecting. Those redeye flights are probably part of the logistical holdup in launching service.

WPvsMW wrote:

I agree. WN's plans for Hawaii can't overlook redeyes eastbound. Without redeyes, WN sabotages its coming competition with the US3 and AS and HA for service to the Islands.

hoya wrote:

compensateme wrote:

It’s kinda silly to assume WN won’t operate redeyes from Hawaii, since that would cut off a large portion of its network from connecting. Those redeye flights are probably part of the logistical holdup in launching service.

Not silly when their CEO has openly stated that they will not do redeyes. The hold up has been the government shutdown delaying the FAA's ETOPS approval.

“We don’t really desire to fly red-eyes right now,” he said on the conference call. “For our style of operation, it would complicate things. … So we can do Hawaii without the red-eyes. Whether we feel strongly that there’s a revenue benefit from having the red-eyes, I don’t think we judge that yet.”
https://www.westhawaiitoday.com/2017/10 ... service-2/

cledaybuck wrote:

WPvsMW wrote:

I agree. WN's plans for Hawaii can't overlook redeyes eastbound. Without redeyes, WN sabotages its coming competition with the US3 and AS and HA for service to the Islands.

The vast majority of AS's flights from Hawaii are not redeyes.

ChaseCLT wrote:

I’m sure it’s been discussed plenty, but United does have a Southern Hub.... Dulles.

hoya wrote:

compensateme wrote:

It’s kinda silly to assume WN won’t operate redeyes from Hawaii, since that would cut off a large portion of its network from connecting. Those redeye flights are probably part of the logistical holdup in launching service.

Not silly when their CEO has openly stated that they will not do redeyes. The hold up has been the government shutdown delaying the FAA's ETOPS approval.

“We don’t really desire to fly red-eyes right now,” he said on the conference call. “For our style of operation, it would complicate things. … So we can do Hawaii without the red-eyes. Whether we feel strongly that there’s a revenue benefit from having the red-eyes, I don’t think we judge that yet.”
https://www.westhawaiitoday.com/2017/10 ... service-2/

WPvsMW wrote:

cledaybuck wrote:

WPvsMW wrote:

I agree. WN's plans for Hawaii can't overlook redeyes eastbound. Without redeyes, WN sabotages its coming competition with the US3 and AS and HA for service to the Islands.

The vast majority of AS's flights from Hawaii are not redeyes.

Correct. However, some are redeyes. The key point WRT WN is "some or none".

WPvsMW wrote:

ChaseCLT wrote:

I’m sure it’s been discussed plenty, but United does have a Southern Hub.... Dulles.

Technically, maybe, since IAD and DCA are south of the Mason-Dixon line. How does UA at IAD compare to DL at ATL (#1) or AA at CLT (#10)? IAD is #25 nationwide, of which most traffic is international. IAD is irrelevant as a "southern" or SE hub ... except to UA captives.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t ... ted_States

WPvsMW wrote:

ChaseCLT wrote:

I’m sure it’s been discussed plenty, but United does have a Southern Hub.... Dulles.

Technically, maybe, since IAD and DCA are south of the Mason-Dixon line. How does UA at IAD compare to DL at ATL (#1) or AA at CLT (#10)? IAD is #25 nationwide, of which most traffic is international. IAD is irrelevant as a "southern" or SE hub ... except to UA captives.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t ... ted_States

WPvsMW wrote:

Either in this thread, or a similar one, I opined that UA has not yet solved the network dynamic of EWR.IAD.DCA, and it would take someone of Glen Hauenstein's skill to do so. Ergo, UA should offer the CEO job to Glen. He would decline, of course, unless the package was MASSIVE... he did leave CO to join AZ, and left AZ to join DL.

ChaseCLT wrote:

Is DC, the 6th largest US Metro even ahead of Philadelphia, really that poorly placed along the east coast to not be able to support a 400 flight hub? * * *
I wish Independence was still around.

joeljack wrote:

My take from a flyer that has been some level of elite for past 17 years solid and from having many friend that travel and the reasons why they have left UA:

1) Too many 50-Seat RJ's on routes that should all have first class. High End Elites chose other airlines because of this. 50-Seat plans are fine to small cities are are expected, but shouldn't be flying to bigger cities that business travelers go to. Examples: OMA, DSM, BHM, DTW etc.

2) I know 2 current Delta Elites here in DSM that switched from AA because DL has PTV's in every seat, they both love them.

3) I know a former UA 1K that switched to AA from UA here in DSM because AA has a daytime ORD-LHR flight that you can connect to from DSM. UA might want to consider this.

4) I know a former UA Elite in California that switched to WN because the last flight of the day going west from Omaha is at 5pm which doesn't allow for a entire day of work. There used to be an 8pm flight. This was a $50,000+ traveler too that UA lost because of short shortsightedness. Even though that particular flight wasn't making Money, if several 1K's took it, you should keep it going. I know I used to take it and it was always full but probably not profitable on it's own with the fares.

5) During the winter, the first flight of the day on ORD-OMA is at 10am! You can't expect to have loyal, year-round business customers with a departure that late for 2 months. Most the year ORD-OMA 8am flight is mainline, for 2 months in the winter it just doesn't exist! If they want to keep elites and not send AA business on a silver platter, they should at least fly a 50-seat plane in the morning during those slow months, even if it loses money. Otherwise you run away your elites.

6) You can't work a full day in Florida and then get home to either DSM or OMA that night. UA has zero later departures from FL most of the year vs DL which makes it easy to work a full day and come home.

7) DL looks at where high dollar flyers are going and adds one-off nonstop flights to accommodate. For example Austin, TX. UA and AA are ahead of DL right now and there are crazy amounts of high dollar elites living there. If DL adds nonstop flights to about 10 business cities from AUS, over a period of 10 years, AA and UA will lose 50% of their high dollar elites and DL will gain them. Long term play for lots of money! UA should really look at AUS hard before DL adds nonstops and gains Elites there. If UA added LAS, SAN, SJC, BOS, CLE and maybe RDU from Austin, UA would be in a strong position to keep their elities and gain new ones that pay a large premium. UA should have done this at BOS too but they have already lost that battle with all the DL adds. BOS will get worse for UA in the coming years because of that.

Positives on routes that I'm familiar with:
OMA-EWR now flying 3x daily to match Delta both ways with good times all day long. This will attract elites on both ends.
DEN-OMA now is flying a 8am flight year-round. This also helps to keep elites happy. They also recently added a 8am DEN-DSM flight too. Big plus for business travelers.

winginit wrote:

WPvsMW wrote:

Either in this thread, or a similar one, I opined that UA has not yet solved the network dynamic of EWR.IAD.DCA, and it would take someone of Glen Hauenstein's skill to do so. Ergo, UA should offer the CEO job to Glen. He would decline, of course, unless the package was MASSIVE... he did leave CO to join AZ, and left AZ to join DL.

Kirby and Nocella are inseparable, so that ain't happening.

It's also worth pointing out that Nocella cut his teeth in the Network Planning space at CO with Glen at the helm.

WPvsMW wrote:

winginit wrote:

WPvsMW wrote:

Either in this thread, or a similar one, I opined that UA has not yet solved the network dynamic of EWR.IAD.DCA, and it would take someone of Glen Hauenstein's skill to do so. Ergo, UA should offer the CEO job to Glen. He would decline, of course, unless the package was MASSIVE... he did leave CO to join AZ, and left AZ to join DL.

Kirby and Nocella are inseparable, so that ain't happening.

It's also worth pointing out that Nocella cut his teeth in the Network Planning space at CO with Glen at the helm.