WPvsMW
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Re: Why can’t UAL close the revenue/ profit gap with DAL ?

Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:49 am

I agree. WN's plans for Hawaii can't overlook redeyes eastbound. Without redeyes, WN sabotages its coming competition with the US3 and AS and HA for service to the Islands.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Why can’t UAL close the revenue/ profit gap with DAL ?

Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:03 am

77H wrote:
So please help me understand with facts why WN will impact UA more so than AA/DL.


WN's announced stations for HI service are all in California: Oakland (OAK), San Diego (SAN), San Jose (SJC), and Sacramento (SMF).
https://www.southwest.com/html/air/news ... awaii.html

UA service to the Islands is from ORD (1x) DEN (2x) SFO (3x) and LAX (4x). SFO and LAX are in California.
https://www.united.com/CMS/en-US/conten ... awaii.aspx

OAK, SJC, and SMF are all in the SFO catchment. DL and AA don't face erosion of their catchment by WN.

Those facts. My opinion.
 
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ChaseCLT
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Re: Why can’t UAL close the revenue/ profit gap with DAL ?

Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:05 am

I’m sure it’s been discussed plenty, but United does have a Southern Hub.... Dulles.

Why isn’t United bigger at Dulles? NoVa has plenty of Fortune 500’s and a business community where it’s comvenient. Lots of O&D.

Are the fees at IAD just that high?
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: Why can’t UAL close the revenue/ profit gap with DAL ?

Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:22 am

ChaseCLT wrote:
I’m sure it’s been discussed plenty, but United does have a Southern Hub.... Dulles.

Why isn’t United bigger at Dulles? NoVa has plenty of Fortune 500’s and a business community where it’s comvenient. Lots of O&D.

Are the fees at IAD just that high?

The fees have reduced considerably in recent years compared to where they were. Still high, but more competitive. United does operate a number of rather expensive hubs, however.

IAD does function reasonably as a southern hub, but I believe their connectivity with smaller destinations in the southeast (particularly Florida) is certainly lacking. It's hard to compete with ATL and CLT in particular, but the reasons there should be obvious. I don't think that means they need a hub truly located in the southeast to be competitive. IAD and IAH cover connecting points north and west pretty well. If they add an additional one or two banks at IAD (as they've said they're considering), then it should increase their competitiveness in the region.
 
hoya
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Re: Why can’t UAL close the revenue/ profit gap with DAL ?

Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:35 pm

compensateme wrote:

It’s kinda silly to assume WN won’t operate redeyes from Hawaii, since that would cut off a large portion of its network from connecting. Those redeye flights are probably part of the logistical holdup in launching service.


Not silly when their CEO has openly stated that they will not do redeyes. The hold up has been the government shutdown delaying the FAA's ETOPS approval.

“We don’t really desire to fly red-eyes right now,” he said on the conference call. “For our style of operation, it would complicate things. … So we can do Hawaii without the red-eyes. Whether we feel strongly that there’s a revenue benefit from having the red-eyes, I don’t think we judge that yet.”
https://www.westhawaiitoday.com/2017/10 ... service-2/
Hoya Saxa!!
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Why can’t UAL close the revenue/ profit gap with DAL ?

Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:48 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
I agree. WN's plans for Hawaii can't overlook redeyes eastbound. Without redeyes, WN sabotages its coming competition with the US3 and AS and HA for service to the Islands.

The vast majority of AS's flights from Hawaii are not redeyes.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
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compensateme
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Re: Why can’t UAL close the revenue/ profit gap with DAL ?

Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:24 pm

hoya wrote:
compensateme wrote:

It’s kinda silly to assume WN won’t operate redeyes from Hawaii, since that would cut off a large portion of its network from connecting. Those redeye flights are probably part of the logistical holdup in launching service.


Not silly when their CEO has openly stated that they will not do redeyes. The hold up has been the government shutdown delaying the FAA's ETOPS approval.

“We don’t really desire to fly red-eyes right now,” he said on the conference call. “For our style of operation, it would complicate things. … So we can do Hawaii without the red-eyes. Whether we feel strongly that there’s a revenue benefit from having the red-eyes, I don’t think we judge that yet.”
https://www.westhawaiitoday.com/2017/10 ... service-2/


In order for WN to “hit” the late departure bank at MDW or ATL, a flight would have to depart to LAX or OAK no later than 6AM. WN has some pretty big plans for Hawaii, including enhanced cabin service (upgraded food and beverage service + enhanced entertainment options). If WN plans to be competitive to most of its network, it will have to offer redeyes.

I wouldn’t be surprised if initial services are sold only to limited markets, to iron out any kinks. But regardless of his comments, redeyes will come.
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Why can’t UAL close the revenue/ profit gap with DAL ?

Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:48 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
I agree. WN's plans for Hawaii can't overlook redeyes eastbound. Without redeyes, WN sabotages its coming competition with the US3 and AS and HA for service to the Islands.

The vast majority of AS's flights from Hawaii are not redeyes.


Correct. However, some are redeyes. The key point WRT WN is "some or none".
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Why can’t UAL close the revenue/ profit gap with DAL ?

Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:56 pm

ChaseCLT wrote:
I’m sure it’s been discussed plenty, but United does have a Southern Hub.... Dulles.


Technically, maybe, since IAD and DCA are south of the Mason-Dixon line. How does UA at IAD compare to DL at ATL (#1) or AA at CLT (#10)? IAD is #25 nationwide, of which most traffic is international. IAD is irrelevant as a "southern" or SE hub ... except to UA captives.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t ... ted_States
Last edited by WPvsMW on Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Why can’t UAL close the revenue/ profit gap with DAL ?

Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:59 pm

hoya wrote:
compensateme wrote:

It’s kinda silly to assume WN won’t operate redeyes from Hawaii, since that would cut off a large portion of its network from connecting. Those redeye flights are probably part of the logistical holdup in launching service.


Not silly when their CEO has openly stated that they will not do redeyes. The hold up has been the government shutdown delaying the FAA's ETOPS approval.

“We don’t really desire to fly red-eyes right now,” he said on the conference call. “For our style of operation, it would complicate things. … So we can do Hawaii without the red-eyes. Whether we feel strongly that there’s a revenue benefit from having the red-eyes, I don’t think we judge that yet.”
https://www.westhawaiitoday.com/2017/10 ... service-2/


I arrive at a different conclusion: WN is still examining whether to implement redeyes. Nowhere in the link does it say, WN "will not do redeyes".
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Why can’t UAL close the revenue/ profit gap with DAL ?

Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:29 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
I agree. WN's plans for Hawaii can't overlook redeyes eastbound. Without redeyes, WN sabotages its coming competition with the US3 and AS and HA for service to the Islands.

The vast majority of AS's flights from Hawaii are not redeyes.


Correct. However, some are redeyes. The key point WRT WN is "some or none".
Agreed. I think the answer to start will be none, but maybe a few at some point. Would probably make a lot more sense at a place like PHX or LAS that is connected to more of the network. Not sure the 738 can make that, maybe the Max-8?
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
jagraham
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Re: Why can’t UAL close the revenue/ profit gap with DAL ?

Fri Feb 01, 2019 9:17 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
ChaseCLT wrote:
I’m sure it’s been discussed plenty, but United does have a Southern Hub.... Dulles.


Technically, maybe, since IAD and DCA are south of the Mason-Dixon line. How does UA at IAD compare to DL at ATL (#1) or AA at CLT (#10)? IAD is #25 nationwide, of which most traffic is international. IAD is irrelevant as a "southern" or SE hub ... except to UA captives.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t ... ted_States


There is no easy answer in the Southeast for UA. Do battle at BNA or RDU. Or work with what you have. Which means IAD plus probably MCO or TPA.
 
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ChaseCLT
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Re: Why can’t UAL close the revenue/ profit gap with DAL ?

Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:05 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
ChaseCLT wrote:
I’m sure it’s been discussed plenty, but United does have a Southern Hub.... Dulles.


Technically, maybe, since IAD and DCA are south of the Mason-Dixon line. How does UA at IAD compare to DL at ATL (#1) or AA at CLT (#10)? IAD is #25 nationwide, of which most traffic is international. IAD is irrelevant as a "southern" or SE hub ... except to UA captives.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t ... ted_States



So in that case. Is DC, the 6th largest US Metro even ahead of Philadelphia, really that poorly placed along the east coast to not be able to support a 400 flight hub?

I know National and BWI siphon traffic. But even just thinking of the connection opportunities. Tyson’s alone has 5 fortune 500’s, as I mentioned, and there’s a few others near Dulles too. So I think O&D is there. It doesn’t seem to me that Dulles is too poorly located to shuttle people up and down the east coast.

Is IAD too redundant to Newark, despite the massive O&D between the two, to serve as a connecting hub? Or at least more connections?

I just wish Dulles was heavier utilized. I know wishes do not trump economics and reality so surely there’s a reason. Fees, poorly placed for east coast connections, redundancy to Newark.... I wish Independence was still around.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Why can’t UAL close the revenue/ profit gap with DAL ?

Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:39 pm

Either in this thread, or a similar one, I opined that UA has not yet solved the network dynamic of EWR.IAD.DCA, and it would take someone of Glen Hauenstein's skill to do so. Ergo, UA should offer the CEO job to Glen. He would decline, of course, unless the package was MASSIVE... he did leave CO to join AZ, and left AZ to join DL.
 
winginit
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Re: Why can’t UAL close the revenue/ profit gap with DAL ?

Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:54 pm

WPvsMW wrote:
Either in this thread, or a similar one, I opined that UA has not yet solved the network dynamic of EWR.IAD.DCA, and it would take someone of Glen Hauenstein's skill to do so. Ergo, UA should offer the CEO job to Glen. He would decline, of course, unless the package was MASSIVE... he did leave CO to join AZ, and left AZ to join DL.


Kirby and Nocella are inseparable, so that ain't happening.

It's also worth pointing out that Nocella cut his teeth in the Network Planning space at CO with Glen at the helm.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Why can’t UAL close the revenue/ profit gap with DAL ?

Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:58 pm

ChaseCLT wrote:
Is DC, the 6th largest US Metro even ahead of Philadelphia, really that poorly placed along the east coast to not be able to support a 400 flight hub? * * *
I wish Independence was still around.


DCA has nighttime noise limits (which means no mainline departures), slot controls, and radius limits, and every operator would love to hub at DCA, but none can because of ... nighttime noise limits, slot controls, and radius limits. Even so, DCA (#24) is busier than IAD (#25).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t ... ted_States

Independence Air, where comedy met inept management. The former couldn't save it from the latter.
Last edited by WPvsMW on Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Why can’t UAL close the revenue/ profit gap with DAL ?

Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:01 am

joeljack wrote:
My take from a flyer that has been some level of elite for past 17 years solid and from having many friend that travel and the reasons why they have left UA:

1) Too many 50-Seat RJ's on routes that should all have first class. High End Elites chose other airlines because of this. 50-Seat plans are fine to small cities are are expected, but shouldn't be flying to bigger cities that business travelers go to. Examples: OMA, DSM, BHM, DTW etc.

2) I know 2 current Delta Elites here in DSM that switched from AA because DL has PTV's in every seat, they both love them.

3) I know a former UA 1K that switched to AA from UA here in DSM because AA has a daytime ORD-LHR flight that you can connect to from DSM. UA might want to consider this.

4) I know a former UA Elite in California that switched to WN because the last flight of the day going west from Omaha is at 5pm which doesn't allow for a entire day of work. There used to be an 8pm flight. This was a $50,000+ traveler too that UA lost because of short shortsightedness. Even though that particular flight wasn't making Money, if several 1K's took it, you should keep it going. I know I used to take it and it was always full but probably not profitable on it's own with the fares.

5) During the winter, the first flight of the day on ORD-OMA is at 10am! You can't expect to have loyal, year-round business customers with a departure that late for 2 months. Most the year ORD-OMA 8am flight is mainline, for 2 months in the winter it just doesn't exist! If they want to keep elites and not send AA business on a silver platter, they should at least fly a 50-seat plane in the morning during those slow months, even if it loses money. Otherwise you run away your elites.

6) You can't work a full day in Florida and then get home to either DSM or OMA that night. UA has zero later departures from FL most of the year vs DL which makes it easy to work a full day and come home.

7) DL looks at where high dollar flyers are going and adds one-off nonstop flights to accommodate. For example Austin, TX. UA and AA are ahead of DL right now and there are crazy amounts of high dollar elites living there. If DL adds nonstop flights to about 10 business cities from AUS, over a period of 10 years, AA and UA will lose 50% of their high dollar elites and DL will gain them. Long term play for lots of money! UA should really look at AUS hard before DL adds nonstops and gains Elites there. If UA added LAS, SAN, SJC, BOS, CLE and maybe RDU from Austin, UA would be in a strong position to keep their elities and gain new ones that pay a large premium. UA should have done this at BOS too but they have already lost that battle with all the DL adds. BOS will get worse for UA in the coming years because of that.

Positives on routes that I'm familiar with:
OMA-EWR now flying 3x daily to match Delta both ways with good times all day long. This will attract elites on both ends.
DEN-OMA now is flying a 8am flight year-round. This also helps to keep elites happy. They also recently added a 8am DEN-DSM flight too. Big plus for business travelers.

At present? I don't believe United has the number of airplanes Needed to do what you're suggesting on the Mainline side. They'd need some "step Up" Airplanes to do that and they'd have to risk an ALPA strike to get them. I'm talking about the E-175 or the E-190 category.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Why can’t UAL close the revenue/ profit gap with DAL ?

Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:08 am

winginit wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
Either in this thread, or a similar one, I opined that UA has not yet solved the network dynamic of EWR.IAD.DCA, and it would take someone of Glen Hauenstein's skill to do so. Ergo, UA should offer the CEO job to Glen. He would decline, of course, unless the package was MASSIVE... he did leave CO to join AZ, and left AZ to join DL.


Kirby and Nocella are inseparable, so that ain't happening.

It's also worth pointing out that Nocella cut his teeth in the Network Planning space at CO with Glen at the helm.


Maybe Nocella needs a promotion.... ;) He's the closest thing to a Glen clone.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Why can’t UAL close the revenue/ profit gap with DAL ?

Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:14 am

WPvsMW wrote:
winginit wrote:
WPvsMW wrote:
Either in this thread, or a similar one, I opined that UA has not yet solved the network dynamic of EWR.IAD.DCA, and it would take someone of Glen Hauenstein's skill to do so. Ergo, UA should offer the CEO job to Glen. He would decline, of course, unless the package was MASSIVE... he did leave CO to join AZ, and left AZ to join DL.


Kirby and Nocella are inseparable, so that ain't happening.

It's also worth pointing out that Nocella cut his teeth in the Network Planning space at CO with Glen at the helm.


Maybe Nocella needs a promotion.... ;) He's the closest thing to a Glen clone.[/quote
Promote him to WHAT? The Guys doing the planning are really foing Pretty well right now. I wouldn't want to Upset the Apple cart for just this one thing.
And? Certainly NOT for One Person.
 
WPvsMW
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Re: Why can’t UAL close the revenue/ profit gap with DAL ?

Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:31 am

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