jetbluefan1
Topic Author
Posts: 3271
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

JetBlue Reports Q4 2018 Earnings

Thu Jan 24, 2019 3:41 pm

JetBlue reported Q4 2018 and FY2018 results today. Q4 results came in above analyst estimates on both the top and bottom line, and so far it looks like shareholders are being rewarded (JBLU stock is trading +3% as of this writing).

Needless to say this is a much better report than Q3, which was quite ugly in comparison.

http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=59077

http://blueir.investproductions.com/~/m ... tation.pdf

Some items of note:
-No cancellations from December 10th through January 11th
-Ex-fuel CASM is targeted at 0-2% for 2019
-Expect positive RASM growth despite expected increased stage length, higher average gauge (due to A320 restyling and additional all-core A321's joining the fleet), and higher expected completion factor
-Some uncertainty about when A321neo's will join due to delays
-FLL Mint flights performing "better than expected" (frankly I cannot, for the life of me, understand why JetBlue would telegraph such competitive info so publicly....they have a bad habit of doing this, and DL somehow finds a way to make this painful [see: BOS])
-FLL outperforming system RASM for 7th quarter in a row

Hoping to hear more on the conference call, particularly around the A321neo delays and if there is any impact to demand from the never-ending government shutdown.
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 461
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:30 pm

Re: JetBlue Reports Q4 2018 Earnings

Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:06 pm

When you have to reiterate you want to stay independent , and plan to stay independent. Next they will shout it through megaphones they hope to stay independent!

The lady doth protest too much, methinks
 
stlgph
Posts: 10974
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:19 pm

Re: JetBlue Reports Q4 2018 Earnings

Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:56 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
JetBlue reported Q4 2018 and FY2018 results today. Q4 results came in above analyst estimates on both the top and bottom line, and so far it looks like shareholders are being rewarded (JBLU stock is trading +3% as of this writing).

Needless to say this is a much better report than Q3, which was quite ugly in comparison.

http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=59077

http://blueir.investproductions.com/~/m ... tation.pdf

Some items of note:
-No cancellations from December 10th through January 11th
-Ex-fuel CASM is targeted at 0-2% for 2019
-Expect positive RASM growth despite expected increased stage length, higher average gauge (due to A320 restyling and additional all-core A321's joining the fleet), and higher expected completion factor
-Some uncertainty about when A321neo's will join due to delays
-FLL Mint flights performing "better than expected" (frankly I cannot, for the life of me, understand why JetBlue would telegraph such competitive info so publicly....they have a bad habit of doing this, and DL somehow finds a way to make this painful [see: BOS])
-FLL outperforming system RASM for 7th quarter in a row

Hoping to hear more on the conference call, particularly around the A321neo delays and if there is any impact to demand from the never-ending government shutdown.



Trust me, "super secret competitive info" isn't so super secret. If I, the casual schmuck, can find it using Meltwater, imagine what one with the tools and resources of a major aviation company can do.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
tphuang
Posts: 3110
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: JetBlue Reports Q4 2018 Earnings

Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:23 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
JetBlue reported Q4 2018 and FY2018 results today. Q4 results came in above analyst estimates on both the top and bottom line, and so far it looks like shareholders are being rewarded (JBLU stock is trading +3% as of this writing).

Needless to say this is a much better report than Q3, which was quite ugly in comparison.

http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=59077

http://blueir.investproductions.com/~/m ... tation.pdf

Some items of note:
-No cancellations from December 10th through January 11th
-Ex-fuel CASM is targeted at 0-2% for 2019
-Expect positive RASM growth despite expected increased stage length, higher average gauge (due to A320 restyling and additional all-core A321's joining the fleet), and higher expected completion factor
-Some uncertainty about when A321neo's will join due to delays
-FLL Mint flights performing "better than expected" (frankly I cannot, for the life of me, understand why JetBlue would telegraph such competitive info so publicly....they have a bad habit of doing this, and DL somehow finds a way to make this painful [see: BOS])
-FLL outperforming system RASM for 7th quarter in a row

Hoping to hear more on the conference call, particularly around the A321neo delays and if there is any impact to demand from the never-ending government shutdown.


Well, if there were any questions about why they haven't added any routes for spring. This would explain it. They have no spares plane left. Explains why they increased BOS-CLE/BNA for May/June and then cut them back again for the summer season. Based on airbus delivery patterns, I think they will get all the A321NEOs this year, but it will probably be even more backloaded than usual. I would imagine any new routes won't start until September at the earliest. They are scheduling one FLL-LAX flight and one JFK-LAX flight this year without any mint configured A321 delivery. Not sure how that's going to work out. Maybe FLL-LAX flight will be an airframe delivery late last year. But this is going to really squeeze mint aircraft utilization.

On the subject of the results themselves, I'm actually underwhelmed. They certainly did well on CASM-ex this quarter due to higher completion rate, so that's good. But they also got lucky (somewhat) with lower fuel prices than most other airlines (they were on the short end of this trade in Q2/3). And the Q1 unit revenue projections are just not good. Now I know they are facing tougher comps given Q1 last year was up a lot, but with the network adjustments they made, I was expecting to see better guidance.

Also, with the all-core A321s, A320 reconfig and longer stage length help their CASM-ex stay manageable (if adding seats and stage length don't work, they really got a problem). E90 getting replaced by A220 will be the largest driver for keeping cost down after that. Delivery for A220 also got pushed back. That's a disappointment.

On FLL, I think it's probably obvious to other airlines that B6 is doing well there. Interesting that WN now dropped MEX completely. I think WN will not try to compete in the VFR market out of FLL at least for the next few years.
 
jetbluefan1
Topic Author
Posts: 3271
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

Re: JetBlue Reports Q4 2018 Earnings

Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:24 pm

Some more details here: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... el-455266/

Seems like they are planning to receive at least 6 A321's this year, down from 13 previously expected, due to the 321neo delays.

Also looks like they are pushing back the deliveries of the A220. They were originally supposed to get 5 in 2020, but will only get 1, apparently due to how quickly their business partners can roll out the interiors.

Disappointing on both parts, but can't say I'm surprised.

CobaltScar wrote:
When you have to reiterate you want to stay independent , and plan to stay independent. Next they will shout it through megaphones they hope to stay independent!

The lady doth protest too much, methinks


:checkmark:

Although, in all fairness, this has been pretty par for the course on B6 earnings calls from as far back as I can remember. I remember Barger having to address this time and time again.

stlgph wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
JetBlue reported Q4 2018 and FY2018 results today. Q4 results came in above analyst estimates on both the top and bottom line, and so far it looks like shareholders are being rewarded (JBLU stock is trading +3% as of this writing).

Needless to say this is a much better report than Q3, which was quite ugly in comparison.

http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=59077

http://blueir.investproductions.com/~/m ... tation.pdf

Some items of note:
-No cancellations from December 10th through January 11th
-Ex-fuel CASM is targeted at 0-2% for 2019
-Expect positive RASM growth despite expected increased stage length, higher average gauge (due to A320 restyling and additional all-core A321's joining the fleet), and higher expected completion factor
-Some uncertainty about when A321neo's will join due to delays
-FLL Mint flights performing "better than expected" (frankly I cannot, for the life of me, understand why JetBlue would telegraph such competitive info so publicly....they have a bad habit of doing this, and DL somehow finds a way to make this painful [see: BOS])
-FLL outperforming system RASM for 7th quarter in a row

Hoping to hear more on the conference call, particularly around the A321neo delays and if there is any impact to demand from the never-ending government shutdown.



Trust me, "super secret competitive info" isn't so super secret. If I, the casual schmuck, can find it using Meltwater, imagine what one with the tools and resources of a major aviation company can do.


True, and it's really no secret that FLL-LAX is B6's best performing Mint route (all that fare data is public after all). I'm just surprised by how loudly B6 management telegraphs it.

Btw what is Meltwater?
 
User avatar
chrisnh
Posts: 4135
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 1999 3:59 am

Re: JetBlue Reports Q4 2018 Earnings

Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:13 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
Btw what is Meltwater?


A company that calls and e-mails me from Canada multiple times daily, to get me signed on to their paid-for service. Basically, it scours the Internet for mentions of your company and any others you'd like. Basically 'Google Alerts' on steroids.
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 189
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: JetBlue Reports Q4 2018 Earnings

Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:23 pm

tphuang wrote:
On FLL, I think it's probably obvious to other airlines that B6 is doing well there. Interesting that WN now dropped MEX completely. I think WN will not try to compete in the VFR market out of FLL at least for the next few years.


Indeed. I wonder how WN plans to tackle VFR markets given their insistence on direct-only bookings.
 
Capn
Posts: 247
Joined: Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:14 pm

Re: JetBlue Reports Q4 2018 Earnings

Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:38 pm

Can someone tell me where B6 parks at DCA, and how many gates they have there? I am also curious about BOS and how many gates they will end up with there.
Thanks in advance
UH-1 DEHAVILAND HERON MARTIN 404 DC-9 CHALLENGER 601 FALCON 50 & 900EX
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 5623
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: JetBlue Reports Q4 2018 Earnings

Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:59 pm

That was a pretty good quarter in what was a difficult earnings year for B6. Pre-tax margin was 10.2%. For all the fist-pumping about AA and UA earnings this quarter, AA and UA didn't get close to that margin. (5.3% UA, 3.5% AA)
 
jumbojet
Posts: 2815
Joined: Mon Dec 29, 2003 3:01 am

Re: JetBlue Reports Q4 2018 Earnings

Fri Jan 25, 2019 12:33 am

jetbluefan1 wrote:
J-No cancellations from December 10th through January 11th
.



What about no cancellations for the year? Also, They sorely need to improve on their on-time arrivals where they ranked dead last.

They almost bested AA in the income department. Only $100,000 separated the two. Not bad.

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