Max Q
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Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:41 am

Just reading another post about how many Americans connect through LHR to travel to S Africa


Seems like there’s still a decent market between the US and Africa / S Africa


Enough demand to support more than one US carrier I would think



Especially from EWR / IAD and perhaps ORD
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FlyRow
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:45 am

If they give Toto free tickets you bet they will!
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EarlyLateORD
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:51 am

Fares have been heavily depressed recently on USA-CPT. SAA has the market in the NYC and Dc Metro. ATL has a JNB nonstop. AA on a 789 MIA-CPT/JNB may (emphasis on May!) work. They'd rather send customers via BA/LHR. UA would rather send people via LIS/FRA. EWR could work to SA, but I just dont think they have the South Africa point-of-sale traffic to pull it off. AA actually could pull it off with partner BA/Comair in SA.

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AVENSAB727
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:14 am

What about IAH-JNB, there were rumors about it in the thread about the "Historical" SFO announcement by UA.
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PSAatSAN4Ever
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:18 am

The answer to any question of "when will there be a non-stop from ___ to ___" begins with "how much premium demand is there for this route that will pay extra for a non-stop?"

In the case of Africa, one is dealing with incredibly distant locations with very little in the way of infrastructure in between. The lack of strong economic ties with Africa means that the market, while healthy, isn't big enough for really more than one American carrier to do Johannesburg non-stop, and Delta has succeeded in making it work for them. United will be happy to connect you at Dulles to South African Airways via either Dakar (DSS) or Accra (ACC) (no change of planes), or with Lufthansa via either FRA or MUC and/or Swiss at ZRH, and BA/AA will give you multiple options via LHR.

And another thing that boggles my mind, and I am a geography teacher. Going via Europe really doesn't add a significantly large amount of flying time:

Image

It looks like it on a map, but using my airport of San Diego as a starting point, here are some distances of likely scenarios:

Image

I moved South African Airways' JFK flight to EWR, should the airline decide to switch locations and take on UA feed, but uniquely enough, SAA seems fine at JFK, which would indicate they are filling that plane up entirely with O&D passengers. Personally I would rather transfer at IAD and take the one-stop, as now I could say I had at least been on the ground (although still in an airplane) at those airports, but that's just me. I would rate MIA and DFW on AA as well as UA or possibly SAA at IAH as most likely if the airlines or their partners flew non-stop.

Notice, though, that the distances are not that much more going via Europe. Although it may appear that it is quite out the way, it really isn't - and given the historical ties between South Africa and Europe, the large market between JNB and multiple European capitals and business centers will always have strong demand. Large planes handle the distances and the VAST amounts of cargo, premium capacity pays most of the bills, and Americans can find relatively affordable airfares and earn a lot of miles.

If the opportunity ever arose where it was profitable and feasible, United or South African Airways could be flying IAH-LOS-JNB and IAH-LAD-JNB daily, with full 5th freedom rights. If SAA could get its act together, it could become another Ethiopian Airlines: a well run and 5th-freedom-holding airline. Has Ethiopian had any stirrings of joining OneWorld?
 
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:31 am

AVENSAB727 wrote:
What about IAH-JNB, there were rumors about it in the thread about the "Historical" SFO announcement by UA.


He made it up.
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csturdiv
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:48 am

FlyRow wrote:
If they give Toto free tickets you bet they will!


I miss the UA planes down in Africa!
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B1168
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:13 am

Recently, the TK crew was robbed in JNB. Also, SAA (Star Alliance member) is flying EWR-JNB.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:54 am

UA would return to LOS and ACC before heading to South Africa.

The 797 would be the perfect plane to start EWR/IAD-West Africa.

Here's a gcmap of potential UA routes to Africa. LAX-SIN is included to illustrate the ability of the 789 as UA has utilized it versus flying IAH-South Africa: http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=lax-sin,+i ... r,+iad-dkr

Assuming the 797 has a range of 5000nm, Western Africa would be a cake walk for it from IAD and EWR. IAH-JNB would only be doable via a tech stop with 5th freedom rights, or via CPT.

Just spit ballin' here (as I put on my flameproof suit), if UA wanted to really be creative, they'd operate IAH-Lome-JNB to tap in to Ethiopian's/ASKY's network on the tech stop for oil traffic in that region, and 5th freedom between Lome and JNB with SA feed in JNB.
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evanb
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:24 am

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
I moved South African Airways' JFK flight to EWR, should the airline decide to switch locations and take on UA feed, but uniquely enough, SAA seems fine at JFK, which would indicate they are filling that plane up entirely with O&D passengers. Personally I would rather transfer at IAD and take the one-stop, as now I could say I had at least been on the ground (although still in an airplane) at those airports, but that's just me.


SAA have a codeshare with B6 at JFK with excellent access to B6 capacity. UA have never been generous to SA i.t.o. capacity and pricing. Why would they want to change that?

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
If the opportunity ever arose where it was profitable and feasible, United or South African Airways could be flying IAH-LOS-JNB and IAH-LAD-JNB daily, with full 5th freedom rights. If SAA could get its act together, it could become another Ethiopian Airlines: a well run and 5th-freedom-holding airline. Has Ethiopian had any stirrings of joining OneWorld?


SA would love 5th freedoms LOS-USA but it's not happening. LAD is problematic for SA at the moment due to blocked Dollars.

Why the hell would ET want to join OneWorld? Where did you make this up from?
 
jetero
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:28 am

TWA772LR wrote:
UA would return to LOS and ACC before heading to South Africa.

The 797 would be the perfect plane to start EWR/IAD-West Africa.

Here's a gcmap of potential UA routes to Africa. LAX-SIN is included to illustrate the ability of the 789 as UA has utilized it versus flying IAH-South Africa: http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=lax-sin,+i ... r,+iad-dkr

Assuming the 797 has a range of 5000nm, Western Africa would be a cake walk for it from IAD and EWR. IAH-JNB would only be doable via a tech stop with 5th freedom rights, or via CPT.

Just spit ballin' here (as I put on my flameproof suit), if UA wanted to really be creative, they'd operate IAH-Lome-JNB to tap in to Ethiopian's/ASKY's network on the tech stop for oil traffic in that region, and 5th freedom between Lome and JNB with SA feed in JNB.


How about IAH-LAD-JNB?
 
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intotheair
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:41 am

I would imagine it will happen again at some point, though probably not anytime soon. There are just so many challenges with serving Africa. From what I remember, the Lagos flight ended because UA wasn't able to collect payment on Nigeria point of sale. When Delta started Monrovia, they paid for a number of improvements to the terminal, which meant paying to install air conditioning.
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N649DL
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 4:25 am

My money is on IAD flying to a capitol city in Africa for the government, if it ever happnens, and probably JNB. They canned legacy UAL IAD-ACC shortly after the merger, EWR-CAI never started, and IAH to Lagos was dropped recently because of decline of oil traffic.

UAL is just weak in Africa, unfortunately, so Rosanna isn't flying to Africa on UAL to see TOTO just yet again :)
 
UA857
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 4:56 am

Was Africa in the PMUA network?
 
jetero
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:00 am

UA857 wrote:
Was Africa in the PMUA network?


Yes PMUA served LOS before CO from IAD.

I recall there were independent routes from IAD to ACC and LOS and then they were combined before they were abandoned.
 
Ionosphere
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:15 am

N649DL wrote:
My money is on IAD flying to a capitol city in Africa for the government, if it ever happnens, and probably JNB. They canned legacy UAL IAD-ACC shortly after the merger, EWR-CAI never started, and IAH to Lagos was dropped recently because of decline of oil traffic.

UAL is just weak in Africa, unfortunately, so Rosanna isn't flying to Africa on UAL to see TOTO just yet again :)

[twoid][/twoid]

TWA flew JFK-CAI until 9/11. DL flew JFK-CAI 2008-2011. DL dropped due to the Arab Spring.
 
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:51 am

Ionosphere wrote:
N649DL wrote:
My money is on IAD flying to a capitol city in Africa for the government, if it ever happnens, and probably JNB. They canned legacy UAL IAD-ACC shortly after the merger, EWR-CAI never started, and IAH to Lagos was dropped recently because of decline of oil traffic.

UAL is just weak in Africa, unfortunately, so Rosanna isn't flying to Africa on UAL to see TOTO just yet again :)

[twoid][/twoid]

TWA flew JFK-CAI until 9/11. DL flew JFK-CAI 2008-2011. DL dropped due to the Arab Spring.


Update: PMUA flew to Africa, PMCO didn't because they announced it in 2010-2011 and canned EWR-CAI because of security risks.

O/T Update: Thanks to this thread, TOTO IV is now back in my 6-CD Changer in my convertible and I was cranking it on the I-10 Freeway in L.A. One of my favorite albums of all-time BTW.
 
ubeema
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:04 am

intotheair wrote:
I would imagine it will happen again at some point, though probably not anytime soon. There are just so many challenges with serving Africa. From what I remember, the Lagos flight ended because UA wasn't able to collect payment on Nigeria point of sale. When Delta started Monrovia, they paid for a number of improvements to the terminal, which meant paying to install air conditioning.

Excuse my ignorance. How is UA unable to collect their own sales. Was it bank problem or some sort of fraud going on?
 
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intotheair
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 12:42 pm

ubeema wrote:
intotheair wrote:
I would imagine it will happen again at some point, though probably not anytime soon. There are just so many challenges with serving Africa. From what I remember, the Lagos flight ended because UA wasn't able to collect payment on Nigeria point of sale. When Delta started Monrovia, they paid for a number of improvements to the terminal, which meant paying to install air conditioning.

Excuse my ignorance. How is UA unable to collect their own sales. Was it bank problem or some sort of fraud going on?


The government started restricting repatriation of funds to keep its own coffers up. From a USA Today story from 2016 when UA left:

An additional complication has been Nigeria’s move to restrict currency movements out of the country as the decline in oil prices has diminished that nation’s reserves of U.S. currency. The global International Air Transport Association trade group estimates foreign airlines collectively have about $575 million in airfare currently trapped in Nigeria, according to Aviation Daily.

“Since last fall, we have not been able to repatriate revenue sold locally in Nigerian currency and therefore we had to essentially suspend these sales which makes the route unsustainable as about half of the revenue generated by the route comes from Nigeria point-of-sale,” United spokesman Jonathan Guerin says in a statement to Today in the Sky.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/f ... /85027594/
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jayunited
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 1:21 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
UA would return to LOS and ACC before heading to South Africa.

The 797 would be the perfect plane to start EWR/IAD-West Africa.

Here's a gcmap of potential UA routes to Africa. LAX-SIN is included to illustrate the ability of the 789 as UA has utilized it versus flying IAH-South Africa: http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=lax-sin,+i ... r,+iad-dkr

Assuming the 797 has a range of 5000nm, Western Africa would be a cake walk for it from IAD and EWR. IAH-JNB would only be doable via a tech stop with 5th freedom rights, or via CPT.

Just spit ballin' here (as I put on my flameproof suit), if UA wanted to really be creative, they'd operate IAH-Lome-JNB to tap in to Ethiopian's/ASKY's network on the tech stop for oil traffic in that region, and 5th freedom between Lome and JNB with SA feed in JNB.


I agree with LOC and ACC maybe even CAI before JNB or CPT, however; I don't see UA returning to LOS if the situation in Nigeria hasn't. Also before any service resumes I would think UA want to recoup the money already owed which the Nigerian government withheld. This one of the main reasons why UA canceled IAH-LOS in 2016, that and the drop in oil traffic. I wouldn't necessarily call the oil market stable ever, but it isn't as volatile as it was a few years ago. While I believe UA can weather the rise and drop in oil traffic, UA can't sustain a flight if half of the revenue being generated is being held hostage by the Nigerian government.

I'm not sure if CAI will ever materialize I know CO had planned to start this route but those plans where shelved I think as a result of Arab spring and the delays associated with the 787 program. I personally think UA should reconsider EWR-CAI, but right now I think UA is still focusing on other international destinations. It probably safe to say Africa is still on the list but there are other international destinations higher up on the list than any destination in Africa.
 
hohd
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:31 pm

intotheair wrote:
ubeema wrote:
intotheair wrote:
I would imagine it will happen again at some point, though probably not anytime soon. There are just so many challenges with serving Africa. From what I remember, the Lagos flight ended because UA wasn't able to collect payment on Nigeria point of sale. When Delta started Monrovia, they paid for a number of improvements to the terminal, which meant paying to install air conditioning.

Excuse my ignorance. How is UA unable to collect their own sales. Was it bank problem or some sort of fraud going on?


The government started restricting repatriation of funds to keep its own coffers up. From a USA Today story from 2016 when UA left:

An additional complication has been Nigeria’s move to restrict currency movements out of the country as the decline in oil prices has diminished that nation’s reserves of U.S. currency. The global International Air Transport Association trade group estimates foreign airlines collectively have about $575 million in airfare currently trapped in Nigeria, according to Aviation Daily.

“Since last fall, we have not been able to repatriate revenue sold locally in Nigerian currency and therefore we had to essentially suspend these sales which makes the route unsustainable as about half of the revenue generated by the route comes from Nigeria point-of-sale,” United spokesman Jonathan Guerin says in a statement to Today in the Sky.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/f ... /85027594/


I dont believe this story, DL is doing fine and went through the same scenario. The route was cancelled due to decline in oil traffic pure and simple and was not sustainable on VFR alone. Also DL picks up more connection traffic from ATL than IAH ever can on UA. Nigeria is not Venezuela, eventually UA would have received the money. UA cannot stand even temporary losses.
 
evanb
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:38 pm

hohd wrote:
I dont believe this story, DL is doing fine and went through the same scenario. The route was cancelled due to decline in oil traffic pure and simple and was not sustainable on VFR alone. Also DL picks up more connection traffic from ATL than IAH ever can on UA. Nigeria is not Venezuela, eventually UA would have received the money. UA cannot stand even temporary losses.


Agreed, other airlines with significant Nigerian operations like DL, ET, SA, BA, etc all found ways to handle the cash flow challenges. My suspicion is that IAH was more dependent on Nigeria point of sale than ATL and thus it was more impactful on UA than DL. That doesn't mean that they can't try and shift to more US point of sale by shifting to another hub that has better position for North American connections, say EWR or IAD.
 
jayunited
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:48 pm

hohd wrote:
I dont believe this story, DL is doing fine and went through the same scenario. The route was cancelled due to decline in oil traffic pure and simple and was not sustainable on VFR alone. Also DL picks up more connection traffic from ATL than IAH ever can on UA. Nigeria is not Venezuela, eventually UA would have received the money. UA cannot stand even temporary losses.


The Story is true and you are correct at the same time. In the USA Today story UA stated they restricted the sale of tickets in Nigerian currency because of economic situation. Below is a link which which bury under category 15 states DL in 2017 did the same thing UA did by they stopped accepting the Naira, I don't I don't know if that is still the case today or if DL is now accepting local Nigerian currency. According to the article written in 2017 DL does not accept local currency from these countries Venezuela, Nigeria, Cuba, Egypt, and Zimbabwe. I'm sure there are other countries DL doesn't accept local currency but those are the countries listed in the article.
DL just like all major carries was effected by not being able to repatriate revenue sold in local currency. However DL unlike UA was able to weather the storm and I think DL now serves LOS from both ATL and JFK. Perhaps UA was more dependent on Nigerian point of sales and oil traffic than DL. But clearly DL has found success and whatever they are doing working especially if they still aren't accepting the Naira.

https://loyaltylobby.com/wp-content/upl ... ules-6.pdf
 
NOVAIAD
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:57 pm

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
Has Ethiopian had any stirrings of joining OneWorld?


Why leave Star Alliance? Their plans for expansion (especially at IAD) indicate they're happy where they are.
 
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Irehdna
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 4:01 pm

I personally think AA MIA-CPT/JNB on B789 is more likely than UA to SA. FWIW BA comair operates several regional flights that can feed into AA at CPT or JNB. MIA is also likely geographically the best US city to connect to Africa.
 
NOVAIAD
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 4:07 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
UA would return to LOS and ACC before heading to South Africa.

The 797 would be the perfect plane to start EWR/IAD-West Africa.

Here's a gcmap of potential UA routes to Africa. LAX-SIN is included to illustrate the ability of the 789 as UA has utilized it versus flying IAH-South Africa: http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=lax-sin,+i ... r,+iad-dkr

Assuming the 797 has a range of 5000nm, Western Africa would be a cake walk for it from IAD and EWR. IAH-JNB would only be doable via a tech stop with 5th freedom rights, or via CPT.

Just spit ballin' here (as I put on my flameproof suit), if UA wanted to really be creative, they'd operate IAH-Lome-JNB to tap in to Ethiopian's/ASKY's network on the tech stop for oil traffic in that region, and 5th freedom between Lome and JNB with SA feed in JNB.



I am sure the 797 would be a great plane for East Coast to West Africa, but so is the 767, 777 and 787. I just don't see the demand or the need there for UA to start up these routes, when ET (soon to start) and SA already route through this region enroute to IAD. UA would be better served letting ET and SA do the lifting in this region. Also, UA routes from IAD and IAH to ACC and LOS did not have a very long life span
 
NOVAIAD
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 4:24 pm

N649DL wrote:
UAL is just weak in Africa, unfortunately,


Yes, UA flights are weak in Africa, but so are AA. However, UA has IMO the best network of codeshare partners both on and off the continent (ET, SA, MS, LH, SN, LX, TP and TK) that have been flying to the continent for decades and UA is better served utilizing them long term.
 
UA857
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 6:01 pm

jetero wrote:
UA857 wrote:
Was Africa in the PMUA network?


Yes PMUA served LOS before CO from IAD.

I recall there were independent routes from IAD to ACC and LOS and then they were combined before they were abandoned.

When did UA start service to Africa?
 
N649DL
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 6:17 pm

NOVAIAD wrote:
N649DL wrote:
UAL is just weak in Africa, unfortunately,


Yes, UA flights are weak in Africa, but so are AA. However, UA has IMO the best network of codeshare partners both on and off the continent (ET, SA, MS, LH, SN, LX, TP and TK) that have been flying to the continent for decades and UA is better served utilizing them long term.


It does, but from a one stop connection network from the US it's hard to beat BA at LHR, AF at CDG, LH at FRA.

IIRC, UAL started flying to Africa in 2009-2010 on IAD-ACC-LOS. They also flew IAD-DXB which continued onward to Doha. I honestly have no idea how IAD-ACC-LOS was doing at the time it was canned. It was during the Smisek administration which was all about shortsighted cost-cutting.
 
evanb
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 6:29 pm

N649DL wrote:
It does, but from a one stop connection network from the US it's hard to beat BA at LHR, AF at CDG, LH at FRA.


Are you sure about that?

BA only serves eight destinations in sub-Saharan Africa from LHR (ABV, ACC, CPT, DUR, JNB, LOS, NBO and SEZ). Furthermore, the overnight southbound to ABV, CPT, DUR, JNB and SEZ can result if pretty long layovers outbound, and the late arrival into LHR from ABV, DUR and SEZ limits connecting opportunities at LHR on the return.

AF/KL together at CDG/AMS are probably unrivaled in terms of number of destinations and timings into the North Americans arrival/departure banks.
 
N649DL
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 6:34 pm

evanb wrote:
N649DL wrote:
It does, but from a one stop connection network from the US it's hard to beat BA at LHR, AF at CDG, LH at FRA.


Are you sure about that?

BA only serves eight destinations in sub-Saharan Africa from LHR (ABV, ACC, CPT, DUR, JNB, LOS, NBO and SEZ). Furthermore, the overnight southbound to ABV, CPT, DUR, JNB and SEZ can result if pretty long layovers outbound, and the late arrival into LHR from ABV, DUR and SEZ limits connecting opportunities at LHR on the return.

AF/KL together at CDG/AMS are probably unrivaled in terms of number of destinations and timings into the North Americans arrival/departure banks.


Well, for one stops even BA at LHR surpasses what can be offered from the US. That's quite a few routes, IMHO.
 
evanb
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 6:58 pm

N649DL wrote:
Well, for one stops even BA at LHR surpasses what can be offered from the US. That's quite a few routes, IMHO.


Even then, it's still underwhelming.

BA 22 US into about 5 (given inability to make connections).
DL 100s in the US into 4.
AF 13 US into 29 in Africa.
KL 12 US into 12 in Africa.
SA 2 US into 52 in Africa (depending on some permutations).

And once you start adding the JV links it looks even worse for BA since they simply don't serve enough destinations in Africa and don't have the JV partner coverage. While they have decent coverage in the US, they don't have decent coverage in Africa.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 7:13 pm

evanb wrote:
N649DL wrote:
Well, for one stops even BA at LHR surpasses what can be offered from the US. That's quite a few routes, IMHO.


Even then, it's still underwhelming.

BA 22 US into about 5 (given inability to make connections).
DL 100s in the US into 4.
AF 13 US into 29 in Africa.
KL 12 US into 12 in Africa.
SA 2 US into 52 in Africa (depending on some permutations).

And once you start adding the JV links it looks even worse for BA since they simply don't serve enough destinations in Africa and don't have the JV partner coverage. While they have decent coverage in the US, they don't have decent coverage in Africa.


I think TK is the winner in this category.
"I dance and laugh among the rotten"
 
evanb
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 7:21 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
I think TK is the winner in this category.


They certainly do well with 9 US destinations and 33 in Africa. The problem is that their African flights are timed more for European and Asian banks, not North American. The result is long connections both ways (think 20 hours plus). While they're certainly targeting Africa nicely with their B737s, connecting that traffic to the US is not the primary target of their affection. Also, a huge number of those African destination are tag-ons, so they're not really one-stops (but that's really clutching at straws).
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
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Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:29 pm

NOVAIAD wrote:
PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
Has Ethiopian had any stirrings of joining OneWorld?


Why leave Star Alliance? Their plans for expansion (especially at IAD) indicate they're happy where they are.


There was another comment here asking me "where did I come up with this idea of Ethiopian joining OneWorld?". I apologize that in my post I wasn't completely clear that everything was hypothetical, and that none of this was to be taken as gospel.

I have to admit that I didn't know Ethiopian was in Star Alliance. Seriously, that's embarrassing - but I will admit it.

I suggested Ethiopian in OneWorld to counteract South African in Star Alliance, meaning both plus SkyTeam via Delta would be found in South Africa. I now know that this isn't going to happen. But other than South African and Ethiopian, who is there in Africa with the resources of those airlines for OneWorld?
 
airbazar
Posts: 9688
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:50 pm

N649DL wrote:
Well, for one stops even BA at LHR surpasses what can be offered from the US. That's quite a few routes, IMHO.

That's arguable. BA serves what? 6,7, sub-sahara destinations? And some of those are afternoon or evening departures making for very long connections on top of what's already a long detour.
The real reason why U.S. carriers don't serve more African destinations is the same reason why there aren't more India destinations: The ME3+TK have that market blanketed with really good connections and cheap fares, even if the distance is longer.
 
evanb
Posts: 826
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 3:26 pm

Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:29 pm

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
I suggested Ethiopian in OneWorld to counteract South African in Star Alliance, meaning both plus SkyTeam via Delta would be found in South Africa. I now know that this isn't going to happen. But other than South African and Ethiopian, who is there in Africa with the resources of those airlines for OneWorld?


Comair in South Africa and Royal Air Maroc?
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
Posts: 838
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:38 pm

Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:42 pm

evanb wrote:
PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
I suggested Ethiopian in OneWorld to counteract South African in Star Alliance, meaning both plus SkyTeam via Delta would be found in South Africa. I now know that this isn't going to happen. But other than South African and Ethiopian, who is there in Africa with the resources of those airlines for OneWorld?


Comair in South Africa and Royal Air Maroc?


Good answers, but Comair isn't going to fly USA to South Africa, and Royal Air Maroc would require a second connection for most Americans (XXX-JFK-CMN-JNB), and unless that's heavily marketed somehow, I doubt it would be anyone's first choice.
 
evanb
Posts: 826
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 3:26 pm

Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:07 pm

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
Good answers, but Comair isn't going to fly USA to South Africa, and Royal Air Maroc would require a second connection for most Americans (XXX-JFK-CMN-JNB), and unless that's heavily marketed somehow, I doubt it would be anyone's first choice.


Fair critiques, I don't know RAM well enough, but Comair are already providing connectivity for BA, IB, CX and QR to 5 South African and 5 regional destinations already, more than BA themselves fly to! More potentially for AA to connect into. QR are also strong in Africa with about 16 destination in SSA.
 
iadadd
Posts: 259
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 10:16 pm

Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:22 pm

UA can easily utilize its Star partners for US-Africa traffic. ET, LH, and SN have the market covered, and MS/SA additionally serve the large O&D markets to their respective hubs.

There is no real rush or priority for UA to serve Africa IMHO
 
N649DL
Posts: 577
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:21 pm

Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:16 am

airbazar wrote:
N649DL wrote:
Well, for one stops even BA at LHR surpasses what can be offered from the US. That's quite a few routes, IMHO.

That's arguable. BA serves what? 6,7, sub-sahara destinations? And some of those are afternoon or evening departures making for very long connections on top of what's already a long detour.
The real reason why U.S. carriers don't serve more African destinations is the same reason why there aren't more India destinations: The ME3+TK have that market blanketed with really good connections and cheap fares, even if the distance is longer.


In comparison to US carriers where AA and UA serve zero, Delta only a handful.
 
NYKiwi
Posts: 60
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:41 am

Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:04 am

Cant speak.for all.yields but my flight to CPT from JFK on SAA was $740....pretty cheap was actually cheaper for me to take a weeks vacation in CPT in March than Florida...
 
n2dru
Posts: 136
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:02 am

Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:08 am

Anyone has the info on which US cities have the most demand to sub Saharan Africa?
 
strfyr51
Posts: 3929
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:01 am

intotheair wrote:
ubeema wrote:
intotheair wrote:
I would imagine it will happen again at some point, though probably not anytime soon. There are just so many challenges with serving Africa. From what I remember, the Lagos flight ended because UA wasn't able to collect payment on Nigeria point of sale. When Delta started Monrovia, they paid for a number of improvements to the terminal, which meant paying to install air conditioning.

Excuse my ignorance. How is UA unable to collect their own sales. Was it bank problem or some sort of fraud going on?


The government started restricting repatriation of funds to keep its own coffers up. From a USA Today story from 2016 when UA left:

An additional complication has been Nigeria’s move to restrict currency movements out of the country as the decline in oil prices has diminished that nation’s reserves of U.S. currency. The global International Air Transport Association trade group estimates foreign airlines collectively have about $575 million in airfare currently trapped in Nigeria, according to Aviation Daily.

“Since last fall, we have not been able to repatriate revenue sold locally in Nigerian currency and therefore we had to essentially suspend these sales which makes the route unsustainable as about half of the revenue generated by the route comes from Nigeria point-of-sale,” United spokesman Jonathan Guerin says in a statement to Today in the Sky.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/f ... /85027594/

Somehow? These countries seem to think US Airlines can exist on nothing. The revenues are why they can even Fly there. No revenue? No sense in flying there at ALL!!
 
Freshside3
Posts: 1590
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:11 am

Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:14 pm

n2dru wrote:
Anyone has the info on which US cities have the most demand to sub Saharan Africa?

This is only a guess, mind you....but I would say WAS, NYC, OAK(more in the East Bay, but they will have to rely on SFO), SEA, DTW, MSP, HOU, ATL.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 5867
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:12 pm

Freshside3 wrote:
n2dru wrote:
Anyone has the info on which US cities have the most demand to sub Saharan Africa?

This is only a guess, mind you....but I would say WAS, NYC, OAK(more in the East Bay, but they will have to rely on SFO), SEA, DTW, MSP, HOU, ATL.


These are your largest African communities. I can't imagine the Bay Area is really a hot spot for African O&D:

Africa Total
1. NYC MSA: 257,372 people
2. DC MSA: 202,823 people
3. Dallas MSA: 91,039 people
4. Minneapolis MSA: 87,673 people
5. Atlanta MSA: 87,211 people
6. Houston MSA: 82,623 people
7. Boston MSA: 76,602 people
8. Los Angeles MSA: 73,601 people
9. Philadelphia MSA: 58,203 people
10. Chicago MSA: 55,657 people
11. Seattle MSA: 50,039 people
12. Baltimore MSA: 40,185 people
13. Columbus, OH MSA: 37,773 people
14. San Francisco MSA: 31,727 people
15. Denver MSA: 26,308 people
"I dance and laugh among the rotten"
 
evanb
Posts: 826
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 3:26 pm

Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:39 pm

N649DL wrote:
In comparison to US carriers where AA and UA serve zero, Delta only a handful.


And your point being?
 
User avatar
TWA772LR
Posts: 6831
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:12 am

Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:18 pm

NOVAIAD wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
UA would return to LOS and ACC before heading to South Africa.

The 797 would be the perfect plane to start EWR/IAD-West Africa.

Here's a gcmap of potential UA routes to Africa. LAX-SIN is included to illustrate the ability of the 789 as UA has utilized it versus flying IAH-South Africa: http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=lax-sin,+i ... r,+iad-dkr

Assuming the 797 has a range of 5000nm, Western Africa would be a cake walk for it from IAD and EWR. IAH-JNB would only be doable via a tech stop with 5th freedom rights, or via CPT.

Just spit ballin' here (as I put on my flameproof suit), if UA wanted to really be creative, they'd operate IAH-Lome-JNB to tap in to Ethiopian's/ASKY's network on the tech stop for oil traffic in that region, and 5th freedom between Lome and JNB with SA feed in JNB.



I am sure the 797 would be a great plane for East Coast to West Africa, but so is the 767, 777 and 787. I just don't see the demand or the need there for UA to start up these routes, when ET (soon to start) and SA already route through this region enroute to IAD. UA would be better served letting ET and SA do the lifting in this region. Also, UA routes from IAD and IAH to ACC and LOS did not have a very long life span

pmUAs service to ACC and LOS ended about 10 years ago, and I'm sure United will resume service to these 2 mega-cities in due time barring a total economic collapse or a war, and IAH-LOS ended because of shaddiness on behalf of the Nigerian govt. The 797 will also have much lower operating costs than the 767. Think about it like this, the 767 enabled p2p across the Atlantic, the 787 enabled p2p across the Pacific, the 797 will enable p2p across the Atlantic to even smaller markets than the 767; it's just the evolution of technology and commercial air travel.

Then the 7107 will redo the same for the Pacific. ;)
When wasn't America great?


The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
VC10er
Posts: 4093
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 6:25 am

Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:00 pm

About 2 years ago I almost had to go to JoBerg. I called UA and one suggested route was via GRU. It was attractive because it was one red-eye, (sleep) Short wait, then only something around 6 hours on SAA to JNB. I don’t know if that’s still running today but I thought SAA had flights to GRU from JNB and Capetown? I believe São Paulo & Rio have a pretty large population of SA exPats?
To Most the Sky is The Limit, For me, the Sky is Home.
 
NOVAIAD
Posts: 51
Joined: Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:07 pm

Re: Will UAL return to Africa

Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:22 pm

N649DL wrote:
NOVAIAD wrote:
N649DL wrote:
UAL is just weak in Africa, unfortunately,


Yes, UA flights are weak in Africa, but so are AA. However, UA has IMO the best network of codeshare partners both on and off the continent (ET, SA, MS, LH, SN, LX, TP and TK) that have been flying to the continent for decades and UA is better served utilizing them long term.


It does, but from a one stop connection network from the US it's hard to beat BA at LHR, AF at CDG, LH at FRA.

IIRC, UAL started flying to Africa in 2009-2010 on IAD-ACC-LOS. They also flew IAD-DXB which continued onward to Doha. I honestly have no idea how IAD-ACC-LOS was doing at the time it was canned. It was during the Smisek administration which was all about shortsighted cost-cutting.


All I remember from that route was it was on a 763 and was notorious for narcotics smuggling.

Yes, they flew IAD-DXB-DOH a few years back. I flew the IAD-KWI-BAH route and loved it. That also ended. Not 100% sure, but I am wondering if UA losing the US Govt. travel contract to JB played a part in that.
Last edited by NOVAIAD on Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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