PHLspecial
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:41 pm

AirFiero wrote:
PHLspecial wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
I wonder what the PDEW is to SJC? I only bring it up because the South Bay has a LARGE Vietnamese population.



The San Jose area has a largest Vietnamese population but most likely LAX will be first due to possible Delta connections. Vietnam Airlines expects to lose money on this LAX-SGN route for multiple years because of the lack of premium business travelers. Though I am curious if VN will order the 777x-8 or the A350-1000 for this route.


Oh, I have NO doubt LAX will be first, if not the only N/S destination. I’m curious what might happen down the road. I grew up in San Jose, and there are a LOT of Vietnamese people in the South Bay.


I can see seasonal service happening, especially for Tet(Vietnamese New Years).
 
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janders
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Sat May 04, 2019 9:01 pm

In stock market filing, VN says studying U.S service for 2020.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Compan ... uces-stake
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Sat May 04, 2019 10:06 pm

memphiX wrote:
But, I won't be surprised when they use one of their 789s for the first flight.

It's already being reported that the 789 is their choice for launch, which makes sense.

Having 280T capable (doesn't mean they'll take them at that weight though) A359s gives them something to grow the route into though, should it be needed.


PHLspecial wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
I wonder what the PDEW is to SJC? I only bring it up because the South Bay has a LARGE Vietnamese population.

The San Jose area has a largest Vietnamese population

For a single city, yes.
But be careful not to make that oh-so-A.net mistake of thinking that airlines care about city stats, compared to the overall catchment area, so far as population goes.

Of the top 20 cities and unincorporated US territories for Vietnamese-American population:
  • San Francisco Bay Area.................132,817 (January 2017) for San Jose, San Francisco, Milpitas.
  • Greater Los Angeles.......................165,723 (January 2017) for Garden Grove, Westminster, Santa Ana, L.A., Anaheim, Fountain Valley.

(I left out San Diego's ~38,000, because that population could just as readily drive to LAX, connect in SFO, or utilize their own Asian nonstop. No sense adding it to either total.)

And again, this is just population; there's plenty of other (mostly financial, and arguably more important) considerations that go into which they'll serve first/at all, as well.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
PHLspecial
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Sun May 05, 2019 12:33 am

Right I understand by now the population count in one city doesn't mean much. I also understand just because a city has numbers doesn't mean flight service.
 
AirFiero
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Sun May 05, 2019 12:57 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
memphiX wrote:
But, I won't be surprised when they use one of their 789s for the first flight.

It's already being reported that the 789 is their choice for launch, which makes sense.

Having 280T capable (doesn't mean they'll take them at that weight though) A359s gives them something to grow the route into though, should it be needed.


PHLspecial wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
I wonder what the PDEW is to SJC? I only bring it up because the South Bay has a LARGE Vietnamese population.

The San Jose area has a largest Vietnamese population

For a single city, yes.
But be careful not to make that oh-so-A.net mistake of thinking that airlines care about city stats, compared to the overall catchment area, so far as population goes.

Of the top 20 cities and unincorporated US territories for Vietnamese-American population:
  • San Francisco Bay Area.................132,817 (January 2017) for San Jose, San Francisco, Milpitas.
  • Greater Los Angeles.......................165,723 (January 2017) for Garden Grove, Westminster, Santa Ana, L.A., Anaheim, Fountain Valley.

(I left out San Diego's ~38,000, because that population could just as readily drive to LAX, connect in SFO, or utilize their own Asian nonstop. No sense adding it to either total.)

And again, this is just population; there's plenty of other (mostly financial, and arguably more important) considerations that go into which they'll serve first/at all, as well.


Point taken, but wasn’t assuming the Bay Area would get the flight first over the LA area. I was just wondering if SJC could someday support less than weekly service given a different factor, and that is where in a catchment area the said population lives in a market with multiple medium to large airports. The South Bay Area may have the most Vietnamese people in the catchment area, similar to our Indian population (making me wonder about service to India as well).
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Sun May 05, 2019 8:47 pm

AirFiero wrote:
I was just wondering if SJC could someday support less than weekly service given a different factor

I'm guessing you meant "daily" and not "weekly" here?

Because barring extremely unique circumstances: less-than-weekly longhaul ops for a scheduled full-service carrier, is a financial disaster in the making, and I sincerely doubt VN would devote their resources to that.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
AirFiero
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Mon May 06, 2019 2:24 am

LAX772LR wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
I was just wondering if SJC could someday support less than weekly service given a different factor

I'm guessing you meant "daily" and not "weekly" here?

Because barring extremely unique circumstances: less-than-weekly longhaul ops for a scheduled full-service carrier, is a financial disaster in the making, and I sincerely doubt VN would devote their resources to that.


Yes, less than weekly.

Many airlines run less than weekly service, especially on long and thin routes. Why do you think it wouldn't work for VN?
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Mon May 06, 2019 6:39 am

AirFiero wrote:
Many airlines run less than weekly service, especially on long and thin routes.

What full-service carrier runs a less-than-weekly longhaul services to a US gateway?


AirFiero wrote:
Why do you think it wouldn't work for VN?

Easy: the almighty "C" word.....
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
YYZORD
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Mon May 06, 2019 7:02 am

Would an IAH service be viable? Huge Vietnamese American population in Houston after LA and SF.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Mon May 06, 2019 7:14 am

YYZORD wrote:
Would an IAH service be viable?

Not without either a stop or a dedicated ULH aircraft.

A nonstop would be 9300mi; the second longest scheduled flight ever attempted, after only SIN-EWR.
They'd need either an A359ULR or 778 to do it, and there's no way VN's cost structure or revenue potential could support that *any* time soon.

A stop would not only add cost, but wouldn't be any more advantageous to the other 1stop options between Houston and Vietnam.


YYZORD wrote:
Huge Vietnamese American population in Houston after LA and SF.

Indeed, but there's a sizeable gap... so huge that it's doubtful VN would be interested in anything other than California, for quite some time.

Again, numbers of Vietnamese as per January 2017, for top 20 cities (of Vietnamese-American population) within a CSA catchment:
LAX: 165,723
SFO: 132,817

IAH: 38,619
DFW: 27,378

NYC: 13,864
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
bhxalex
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Mon May 06, 2019 10:08 am

AirFiero wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
I was just wondering if SJC could someday support less than weekly service given a different factor

I'm guessing you meant "daily" and not "weekly" here?

Because barring extremely unique circumstances: less-than-weekly longhaul ops for a scheduled full-service carrier, is a financial disaster in the making, and I sincerely doubt VN would devote their resources to that.


Yes, less than weekly.

Many airlines run less than weekly service, especially on long and thin routes. Why do you think it wouldn't work for VN?



Do you have any examples? I can think of long haul Bi-weekly scheduled charters from TUI & XL France, but non from a carrier such as VN though.
 
AirFiero
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Mon May 06, 2019 1:02 pm

bhxalex wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
I'm guessing you meant "daily" and not "weekly" here?

Because barring extremely unique circumstances: less-than-weekly longhaul ops for a scheduled full-service carrier, is a financial disaster in the making, and I sincerely doubt VN would devote their resources to that.


Yes, less than weekly.

Many airlines run less than weekly service, especially on long and thin routes. Why do you think it wouldn't work for VN?



Do you have any examples? I can think of long haul Bi-weekly scheduled charters from TUI & XL France, but non from a carrier such as VN though.


I can think of many short haul examples, like Leon and a another couple of cities from Mexico to California. Aren't HU and other Chinese carriers running 2-4x weekly on a number of routes? Aren't there any from the United States to Europe?

I remember, from my schedule collecting days about a million years ago, seeing a lot of international routes were just a few days a week and/or seasonal. I don't have access to any of the scheduling things like OAG, so I can't easily look it up.
 
IAHWorldflyer
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Mon May 06, 2019 4:03 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
Would an IAH service be viable?

Not without either a stop or a dedicated ULH aircraft.

A nonstop would be 9300mi; the second longest scheduled flight ever attempted, after only SIN-EWR.
They'd need either an A359ULR or 778 to do it, and there's no way VN's cost structure or revenue potential could support that *any* time soon.

A stop would not only add cost, but wouldn't be any more advantageous to the other 1stop options between Houston and Vietnam.


YYZORD wrote:
Huge Vietnamese American population in Houston after LA and SF.

Indeed, but there's a sizeable gap... so huge that it's doubtful VN would be interested in anything other than California, for quite some time.

Again, numbers of Vietnamese as per January 2017, for top 20 cities (of Vietnamese-American population) within a CSA catchment:
LAX: 165,723
SFO: 132,817

IAH: 38,619
DFW: 27,378

NYC: 13,864


Sorry, the numbers you cite for Houston are not the CSA cachement, but City of Houston alone as reported on Wikipedia. If you look further, you will find that Harris County ( the county that includes Houston) has a Vietnamese population of 81,000. I can not find ethnic breakdown numbers for Fort Bend County, just to the south, but according to census estimates in 2017, the Asian population there is 137,000. This is almost the center of the Vietnamese population in the MSA, so I'd be willing to say at least 20% of that number is Vietnamese, adding in another 27,000 to the 80,000 in Harris county. Still not enough for n/s service, but that is what propels BR, SQ, NH and others to offer trans-Pacific service from IAH.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Tue May 07, 2019 2:49 am

AirFiero wrote:
I can think of many short haul examples,

None of which apply to what we're talking about, as the cost dynamic is entirely different.



AirFiero wrote:
Aren't HU and other Chinese carriers running 2-4x weekly on a number of routes?

Some yes. They're also heavily subsidized on a city level.



AirFiero wrote:
Aren't there any from the United States to Europe?

No. Though what I'm beginning to realize, is that you have a fundamental misunderstanding of what "less than weekly" means... which would explain your contention.

A less-than-weekly flight would have to have a minimum 8 day span between frequencies.
Such a thing does not exist, for full-service scheduled carriers to the USA.

As prior mentioned, it seems you meant "less than daily"...
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Tue May 07, 2019 2:51 am

IAHWorldflyer wrote:
Sorry, the numbers you cite for Houston are not the CSA cachement, but City of Houston alone as reported on Wikipedia. If you look further, you will find that Harris County ( the county that includes Houston) has a Vietnamese population of 81,000. I can not find ethnic breakdown numbers for Fort Bend County, just to the south, but according to census estimates in 2017, the Asian population there is 137,000. This is almost the center of the Vietnamese population in the MSA, so I'd be willing to say at least 20% of that number is Vietnamese, adding in another 27,000 to the 80,000 in Harris county. Still not enough for n/s service, but that is what propels BR, SQ, NH and others to offer trans-Pacific service from IAH.

As stated, the numbers are only from top-20 cities within a metro's catchment.

The same goes for California. If all cities in the entire Los Angeles basin were counted, the number above for LAX would be significantly larger. Similar for NYC.

The gap between California and everywhere else, doesn't change.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
AirFiero
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Tue May 07, 2019 1:08 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
I can think of many short haul examples,

None of which apply to what we're talking about, as the cost dynamic is entirely different.



AirFiero wrote:
Aren't HU and other Chinese carriers running 2-4x weekly on a number of routes?

Some yes. They're also heavily subsidized on a city level.



AirFiero wrote:
Aren't there any from the United States to Europe?

No. Though what I'm beginning to realize, is that you have a fundamental misunderstanding of what "less than weekly" means... which would explain your contention.

A less-than-weekly flight would have to have a minimum 8 day span between frequencies.
Such a thing does not exist, for full-service scheduled carriers to the USA.

As prior mentioned, it seems you meant "less than daily"...


I meant less than daily. Once a week, twice a week, three times a week...You seem to want to have an argument. I’ll pass, it’s not that important.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Wed May 08, 2019 3:19 am

AirFiero wrote:
I meant less than daily. Once a week, twice a week, three times a week...You seem to want to have an argument. I’ll pass, it’s not that important.

I wasn't arguing with you dude, I was pointing out that such a concept doesn't exist, which is why multiple posters told you that what you were proposing wouldn't work.

It's not our fault that you kept screwing up "daily" versus "weekly"... we only answered your question as it was presented.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
GearShaft5
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Wed May 08, 2019 3:45 am

In the face of continuing leaks about the allegedly compromised MACA feature on theB737-8MAX and the fact that the FAA apparently outsourced safety certification of that aircraft to Boeing (a direct conflict of interest and dereliction of duty), how ironic that the FAA considers itself qualified to give a safety rating....to any airline.
 
AirFiero
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Wed May 08, 2019 12:10 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
I meant less than daily. Once a week, twice a week, three times a week...You seem to want to have an argument. I’ll pass, it’s not that important.

I wasn't arguing with you dude, I was pointing out that such a concept doesn't exist, which is why multiple posters told you that what you were proposing wouldn't work.

It's not our fault that you kept screwing up "daily" versus "weekly"... we only answered your question as it was presented.


I made a mistake once. I don't need this crap. I'll just put you on ignore.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Wed May 08, 2019 1:28 pm

The other thing to consider is: this now allows an airline like UA to code-share with VN. Even though UA is in a different alliance from VN, UA is a JV partner with NH, which cooperates with VN on Japan to Vietnam routes. Could one see VN placing its code on a route like NRT to EWR? If an airline is dropped to FAA category 2, a US carrier cannot codeshare with airlines from that country.

Off the topic but related to FAA category 2: Kazakhstan is presumably in FAA category 2, but its flag carrier, Air Astana, has all of its aircraft registered in a Category 1 territory (Aruba). Which category applies to them?
 
TheEuphorian
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Thu May 09, 2019 12:37 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
The other thing to consider is: this now allows an airline like UA to code-share with VN. Even though UA is in a different alliance from VN, UA is a JV partner with NH, which cooperates with VN on Japan to Vietnam routes. Could one see VN placing its code on a route like NRT to EWR? If an airline is dropped to FAA category 2, a US carrier cannot codeshare with airlines from that country.

Off the topic but related to FAA category 2: Kazakhstan is presumably in FAA category 2, but its flag carrier, Air Astana, has all of its aircraft registered in a Category 1 territory (Aruba). Which category applies to them?

VN is more likely to codeshare with Skyteam partner DL.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Thu May 09, 2019 2:20 am

AirFiero wrote:
I made a mistake once. I don't need this crap. I'll just put you on ignore.

Strange.


TheEuphorian wrote:
VN is more likely to codeshare with Skyteam partner DL.

Would think so, but stranger things have happened.

At the end of the day, carriers' financial interests come first... DL/VN don't (because they can't) have a j/v, so while it's likely they'll cooperate, don't be shocked if they go another route if they find it within their interests to do so.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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LAXintl
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Thu May 30, 2019 6:36 pm

And today DOT approved VN's 2016 application for SGN-LAX service.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Ishrion
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Thu May 30, 2019 6:42 pm

LAXintl wrote:
And today DOT approved VN's 2016 application for SGN-LAX service.


Sort of off topic, where do you see the DOT approval filings like this?
 
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compensateme
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Thu May 30, 2019 6:42 pm

If DL had 787-8, SEA-SGN would print money!!!
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
tcaeyx
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Thu May 30, 2019 6:52 pm

compensateme wrote:
If DL had 787-8, SEA-SGN would print money!!!


They can't even make HKG work. In what alternative universe would SGN work?
 
MIflyer12
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Thu May 30, 2019 6:55 pm

compensateme wrote:
If DL had 787-8, SEA-SGN would print money!!!


Why do you think that? You saw LAX772LR's remarks on Vietnamese-American populations in post #60, right? SEA doesn't have 1/10th of the Bay Area or Los Angeles area V-A population. Do you bother to ground any of your commentary in factual analysis?
 
behramjee
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Thu May 30, 2019 7:35 pm

compensateme wrote:
If DL had 787-8, SEA-SGN would print money!!!


Not at all in fact it would lose millions of $ since it’s a low yielding VFR route primarily. Attracting California pax to SGN via SEA would further be lower yielding as DL would offer a similar one stop service like JL NH CX KE OZ PR BR.
 
SonaSounds
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Fri May 31, 2019 5:35 pm

Full release: US DoT grants Vietnam Airlines exemption authority, tentative foreign air carrier permit

https://centreforaviation.com/news/us-d ... mit-908189

US Department of Transportation (DoT) granted (30-May-2019) Vietnam Airlines exemption authority to operate the following services:

Foreign scheduled passenger and cargo service between Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, via the intermediate points Taipei, Osaka and Nagoya and the coterminal points Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York, Seattle and Dallas Fort Worth, and beyond to Vancouver and Toronto;

Foreign scheduled passenger and cargo service from points behind Vietnam, via Vietnam and intermediate points, to 25 co-terminal US points and beyond, on a codeshare basis only with an authorised US or third country carrier;

Foreign charter passenger and cargo service between any point or points in Vietnam and any point or points in the US and between any point or points in the US and any point or points in a third country or countries, provided such service constitutes part of a continuous operation and includes service to Vietnam for the purpose of carrying local traffic between Vietnam and the US, with or without a change of aircraft.
 
babastud
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Fri May 31, 2019 6:15 pm

compensateme wrote:
If DL had 787-8, SEA-SGN would print money!!!


Thanks for the Laugh of the Day!!
 
RobertS975
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Fri May 31, 2019 6:16 pm

TheEuphorian wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
The other thing to consider is: this now allows an airline like UA to code-share with VN. Even though UA is in a different alliance from VN, UA is a JV partner with NH, which cooperates with VN on Japan to Vietnam routes. Could one see VN placing its code on a route like NRT to EWR? If an airline is dropped to FAA category 2, a US carrier cannot codeshare with airlines from that country.

Off the topic but related to FAA category 2: Kazakhstan is presumably in FAA category 2, but its flag carrier, Air Astana, has all of its aircraft registered in a Category 1 territory (Aruba). Which category applies to them?

VN is more likely to codeshare with Skyteam partner DL.


In the absence of a JV, the two carriers are competitors, not allies.
 
The777Man
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:29 am

LAXintl wrote:
And today DOT approved VN's 2016 application for SGN-LAX service.


Can you recap what they propose in that application ? 3xweek SGN-LAX ?

Many Thanks !

The777Man
Boeing 777s flown: UA, TG, KE, BA, CX, NH, JD, JL, CZ, SQ, EK, NG, CO, AF, SV, KU, DL, AA, MH, OZ, CA, MS, SU, LY, RG, PE, AZ, KL, VN, PK, EY, NZ, AM, BR, AC, DT, UU, OS, AI, 9W, KQ, QR, VA, JJ, ET, TK, PR, BG, T5, CI, MU and LX.. Further to fly.. LH 777
 
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janders
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Re: U.S to grant Vietnam safety rating paving way for air service

Sat Jun 01, 2019 11:13 am

The777Man wrote:
Can you recap what they propose in that application ? 3xweek SGN-LAX ?

Many Thanks !

The777Man


See the thread on topic >>>> viewtopic.php?t=1347437
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