BREAKING
Exclusive: Airbus A380 under threat as Emirates weighs rejigged order

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-airbu ... KKCN1PP2C7

¿B787-10 and A350 in the future fleet?

too late , they should have ordered a350 and they had two chances and they blew it and now they have to live with it.

pabloeing wrote:

¿B787-10 and A350 in the future fleet?

not much info in that article to go on.
But maybe their future fleet is 777 and A350 - they never have firmed up the 787 order.
I'd be surprised if they didn't go ahead with the 787's but they pulled the rug out from under Airbus a couple times now so they could do the same to Boeing

pabloeing wrote:

¿B787-10 and A350 in the future fleet?

As best I can see, the 787 order has not yet been finalised. It's not on the Boeing O&D page yet.

Cancel the 787s and fly A350s? Now, THAT would be an upset.

If this is true I think it could actually be good for Airbus.

They can devote their resources to developing products which will have a mass market appeal.

Vladex wrote:

too late , they should have ordered a350 and they had two chances and they blew it and now they have to live with it.

I believe the last round of A380s that Emirates ordered are contingent on engine contracts and performance enhancements that aren't forthcoming - see the actual article on Bloomberg. This may be more of Airbus trying to salvage widebody sales at Emirates than Emirates looking for an out which it seems to already have.

There's plenty of room between the 787-10 and the 779, that's for sure. It seems like a move that would make a lot of sense. No more 380 cache 10 years hence but they would be in a remarkable position to fine-tune capacity, cargo and mission efficiency having all three families, which in itself would be unique..except maybe for SQ?

What will happen to all 117 Airbus 380?

Q

PM wrote:

pabloeing wrote:

¿B787-10 and A350 in the future fleet?

As best I can see, the 787 order has not yet been finalised. It's not on the Boeing O&D page yet.

Cancel the 787s and fly A350s? Now, THAT would be an upset.

Huge!

Going for round 3 on the A350.

This could be bad news for the 787. Worse for the A380.

What a soap opera!

Lightsaber

PM wrote:

pabloeing wrote:

¿B787-10 and A350 in the future fleet?

As best I can see, the 787 order has not yet been finalised. It's not on the Boeing O&D page yet.

Cancel the 787s and fly A350s? Now, THAT would be an upset.

Well, they did order A350s, cancelled and ordered more A380s, signed MOU for 787s, haven't signed and are now looking to swap A380s for A350s.......talk about coming full circle

“Airbus SE confirms it is in discussions with Emirates Airline in relation to its A380 contract. The details of Airbus’ commercial discussions with customers remain confidential.”

Q wrote:

What will happen to all 117 Airbus 380?

Q

This only impacts A380 on order.

Did EK ever firm the last 36?

My predictions on the EK A380 in service:
1. Any custom wired will be scrapped when due for wire replacement (about 12 years). Were any of EK's custom fit? It occurred to me, I don't know.
2. Most of later will be overhauled and receive a cabin refresh. But not all. Starting in about 2025, all will just be scrapped at major maintenance overhaul.

Ohhh... Quite the story if this happens.

Lightsaber

¿Maybe more B777X for the B787-10 to replacement of the A380?

Kindanew wrote:

If this is true I think it could actually be good for Airbus.

They can devote their resources to developing products which will have a mass market appeal.

The sooner they can nail up the A380 coffin, the better for the company. The opportunity cost of keeping the A380 program around on life support must be enormous.

The title of the article is not really in line with the last paragraph of the article.

This way it's not clear if it is Emirates who want to switch the order, or if it is Airbus who has suggested this to Emirates now the A380 is in limbo.

It's impossible to say right now how this will affect the 787 order, it all depends on what Emirates wants to do with these A350s if they decide to order them.

I also think any cancellation of a A380 order will mean that the current fleet of A380s will stay longer at Emirates then originally intended. That would be good news for the lessors, they will get a bit more time to look at the aftermarket of these planes.

This is probably the end then, if the last 36 ek orders aren't firmed then there's like what, 40 unfilled orders? at rate 12 the line ends in 3 years.

This will be good.

It will be the push Airbus needs to kill the A380 programme and instead focus on their great twins that make more money.

It will probably be good for EK to finally move away from their MO of just throwing massive capacity at EVERYTHING.

Scrapping the 787 contract and moving away from the A380 may be good for Boeing because EK may then fully commit to its 777X order.

Also, maybe with EY trying to exit its A350 contract, behind the scenes, EK may be looking to take that over so Airbus only loses the EK A380 contract which they could possibly want to stop investing in anyway.

Just my opinion, of course...

There's plenty of room between the 787-10 and the 779, that's for sure. It seems like a move that would make a lot of sense. No more 380 cache 10 years hence but they would be in a remarkable position to fine-tune capacity, cargo and mission efficiency having all three families, which in itself would be unique..except maybe for SQ?

"Last Call. Place your orders".

There is a special on the 380's tonight, it will make your head swoon with pleasure, but in the morning you will have quite a headache.


When it launched it was technically a great achievement, but always a difficult business case.

Could this be a mis-directed announcement, perhaps EK and AB are in discussions as to when the last date to get RR on board for the order before the line hits a pause. Is it 2 or 2.5 year lead time for landing gear, anyway that date is approaching. It could be a negotiation where AB is offering A350's to replace the 380 order.

ER757 wrote:

pabloeing wrote:

¿B787-10 and A350 in the future fleet?

not much info in that article to go on.
But maybe their future fleet is 777 and A350 - they never have firmed up the 787 order.
I'd be surprised if they didn't go ahead with the 787's but they pulled the rug out from under Airbus a couple times now so they could do the same to Boeing

Maybe, maybe not. A380 writing is on the wall, so Airbus will get a good deal on A350s because contractual obligations aren't being met, or A will use the A380 obligation to get a better deal for themselves. Hard to tell who has the upper hand here. EK chose the 787-10 for a reason; to replace the 78J, Airbus will need to provide better terms than they did on the last bid to Emirates on the A350.

I have the best idea for Emirates’ current A380 fleet. Scatter the fuselages to the major cities of the world and make a global hotel chain out of them with the whole thing being first class suites. Have staff dressed like cabin crew. This way people can pay for the Emirates premium experience without paying for all the costs that are associated with actually flying anywhere. So like $200-$400 a night maybe to stay in the A380 hotel.

Could it be that EK is taking EY’ A350s?

Just a theory, if the owner of EY, the government of Abu Dhabi, asked the owner of EK, the government of Dubai, to bail them out of the order, it would not be the first time the two governments work together, of course.

Just a thought.

Personally, I do not think the 787-10 order is in jeopardy. It is perfect for EK mid range flights to Europe, Africa, India, or SE Asia.

Keep in mind EK could order the A 359 or A351 as needed for longer missions not suitable for the 787-10.

This would make perfect business sense to me. We'll see soon enough.

pabloeing wrote:

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-releases/en/2019/01/airbus-statement-on-commercial-discussions-with-emirates-airline.html

Isn't it rare for Airbus to put a statement like this out like this? Don't they usually have a spokesperson say something along the lines of "We don't comment on market speculation."

If and I stress the word if this does happen, I'm going to put good money on this thread being the most commented and viewed for 2019.

On a more serious note, it would almost certainly make the end of production of the A380. Once ANA receive their 3 A380's only Emirates remaining orders are realistically going to be delivered.

MoKa777 wrote:

This will be good.

It will be the push Airbus needs to kill the A380 programme and instead focus on their great twins that make more money.

It will probably be good for EK to finally move away from their MO of just throwing massive capacity at EVERYTHING.

Scrapping the 787 contract and moving away from the A380 may be good for Boeing because EK may then fully commit to its 777X order.

Also, maybe with EY trying to exit its A350 contract, behind the scenes, EK may be looking to take that over so Airbus only loses the EK A380 contract which they could possibly want to stop investing in anyway.

Just my opinion, of course...

That is all very plausible, and makes sense for all parties.

Q wrote:

What will happen to all 117 Airbus 380?

Q

Scrapped.

acjbbj wrote:

Q wrote:

What will happen to all 117 Airbus 380?

Q

Scrapped.

They'd certainly make a lot of bins & washing machines from the amount of metal from those planes!

Seriously bad news for the A380 program if true.

maybe the 78J orders could be replaced with 789 orders?

Kindanew wrote:

If this is true I think it could actually be good for Airbus.

If true it is unambiguously good for Airbus. The 36 orders for A380 being produced at six/year lose money for Airbus, although likely not a huge sum. A conversion to A350 with similar order value almost certainly makes a very nice profit for Airbus and it reverses what had been a very high-profile rejection for the product family. Cancelling the A380 program is perhaps embarrassing, but honestly not much more than the ongoing saga of a dearth of orders and accompanying press coverage of a "troubled" aircraft program.

The A380 has been a very costly distraction for Airbus and it prevented them from responding more effectively to the 787 when Boeing announced that program; the only saving grace for Airbus was that Boeing horribly botched the 787 development program.

musman9853 wrote:

This is probably the end then, if the last 36 ek orders aren't firmed then there's like what, 40 unfilled orders? at rate 12 the line ends in 3 years.

If the last 20+16 EK orders end up being cancelled, then the backlog is 36: 33 for EK and 3 for NH. IIRC the plan was for 8 deliveries in 2019 and 6/year thereafter. Depending on economic considerations I could even see some of those 33 for EK being converted to A350 if the numbers work out better for Airbus, subject to how much has already been expended on long-lead time items already for delivery in 2021. If Airbus doesn't have other customers on the horizon (BA?) and EK won't be the partner they need to keep the A380 on life support, it may make more sense for Airbus to devote its resources (human capital, facilities, real estate, money, etc.) to programs like the A32Xneo and A350.

JayinKitsap wrote:

"Last Call. Place your orders".

There is a special on the 380's tonight, it will make your head swoon with pleasure, but in the morning you will have quite a headache.

Pretty much. If this isn't the message from Airbus to prospective customers like BA that it's now or never, I don't know what is.

JayinKitsap wrote:

When it launched it was technically a great achievement, but always a difficult business case.

And there may well be some irony if, depending on the freight market and the disposition of the balance of the EK A380 order, the venerable 747 ends up outliving the A380 which was meant to supplant it.

Breathe wrote:

acjbbj wrote:

Q wrote:

What will happen to all 117 Airbus 380?

Q

Scrapped.

They'd certainly make a lot of bins & washing machines from the amount of metal from those planes!

There’s a lot of CFRP in each A380, actually more than in a 787 !

Geoff

Lots of discussion about the 787-10. That’s for the short flights, especially around the Middle East/Europe. There is definitely room for that for “short” haul and then the A359 for the long thin routes. To far for a 787-10 and not where the capacity of the MUCH larger 777-9X is needed. A fleet of 787-10 // A350-900 // B777X could work very well. Especially as lots of slots from EYs A350s are available.

What do you think Emirates will last retire fleet A380 in? I would say 15 more years to go.

Q

ScottB wrote:

The A380 has been a very costly distraction for Airbus and it prevented them from responding more effectively to the 787 when Boeing announced that program; the only saving grace for Airbus was that Boeing horribly botched the 787 development program.

Airbus has responded effectively with the A350 XWB. Also Airbus outsold the 787 with the ORIGINAL OLD A330 for many years which when you actually think about it is incredible achievement.

And there may well be some irony if, depending on the freight market and the disposition of the balance of the EK A380 order, the venerable 747 ends up outliving the A380 which was meant to supplant it.

For the masses the "Jumbo Jet" was always about transporting people not some cheap Chinese electronics flying from some obscure freight hub to another. The A380 indeed ended the plane that captured the imagination of people before - the 747 passenger with the last version utterly failing (47 orders for three airlines).

Vladex wrote:

too late , they should have ordered a350 and they had two chances and they blew it and now they have to live with it.

Why is it too late? Exactly?

Strato2 wrote:

For the masses the "Jumbo Jet" was always about transporting people not some cheap Chinese electronics flying from some obscure freight hub to another. The A380 indeed ended the plane that captured the imagination of people before - the 747 passenger with the last version utterly failing (47 orders for three airlines).

The market itself ended both aircraft. No one wants VLAs with a glut of good, efficient twins around.

It would be interesting if Airbus was to offer Emirates the plane they wanted in the first place as part of the deal. A mid-haul A350-1000 bodied aircraft with the XWB-84 powerplant. That could even justify a new model number such as A350-1200 for a lightened version with some tank capacity deleted and the engines of the -900

I think air bus all too frequently gets a bad rap from the A380 not being the success they figured it to be.

1st and foremost, overall, it's a hellava plane. It's not just not a cost efficient plane for airlines. But, as they were designing it, it's not like the industry experts were all thinking it was gonna be a bad move for Airbus. In the mid 2000's that the hub spoke model would begin to lose its luster if people were to have bet on that at the time, it would have been considered a higher risk than of it continuing to be the primary means of the aviation business.

Boeing had made s killing with the 747 for decades and in the mid 2000's was still going strong when they were getting the idea of a new 747 themselves. If.... the 747-8 had been the ONLY 747 and had not not been able to be configured to freighter service. Boeing would be holding the bag just as many are putting on Airbus.

The one big mistake Airbus seems to make is their planes don't make for freighters so as they begin to wear out from pax service, its boneyard time.
So, the expected 747-8 for a pax plane is obviously not going to be there, it's being phased out from all airlines around the world, the 747 in general. But ss a freighter it's got decades left of service, whereas the A380 doesn't. But its been a quicker change of these newer planes such as the 350, 787 and to me a somewhat surprising continued surge of success with the 777. But I guess the 2 engine model really does make the difference as they grow the 777 into as big as anything we've ever had, more or less.

Strato2 wrote:

Airbus has responded effectively with the A350 XWB. Also Airbus outsold the 787 with the ORIGINAL OLD A330 for many years which when you actually think about it is incredible achievement.

Airbus responded with the A350XWB only after being shamed into doing so by their customers, and the initial string of ineffective A350 versions (basically warmed-over A330s) were in no small part due to Airbus's inability to undertake a clean-sheet program thanks to the A380 (not to mention the A340NG) consuming so much of their development resources.

The A330 continued to sell well largely because Boeing's execution of the 787 was such an epic failure. I think the lukewarm sales of the A330neo now that Boeing is executing well on 787 manufacturing bears that out.

Strato2 wrote:

For the masses the "Jumbo Jet" was always about transporting people not some cheap Chinese electronics flying from some obscure freight hub to another. The A380 indeed ended the plane that captured the imagination of people before - the 747 passenger with the last version utterly failing (47 orders for three airlines).

Noel, is that you? Talking about the A380 "captur[ing] the imagination of people" just paints it as the vanity project it was. The 747-8i was absolutely a bad decision on Boeing's part and we've seen that in the writedown they were forced to take on the program. But it is still ironic that the 50-year-old 747 may still be produced after the A380 ceases production, because apparently shuttling "cheap Chinese electronics... from some obscure freight hub to another" is a more viable business than trying to carry masses of people through any hub other than DXB.

777PHX wrote:

Strato2 wrote:

For the masses the "Jumbo Jet" was always about transporting people not some cheap Chinese electronics flying from some obscure freight hub to another. The A380 indeed ended the plane that captured the imagination of people before - the 747 passenger with the last version utterly failing (47 orders for three airlines).

The market itself ended both aircraft. No one wants VLAs with a glut of good, efficient twins around.

Let me rephrase, there isn't enough demand for VLAs at most airlines as construction of a significant number of new runways has allowed far more direct flights. Premium customers have shown a preference to the extent they will even fly business Jets to avoid hubbing.

Large airframes have always had to carry a passenger for a discount versus the next size down due to declining yield with scale (fewer passengers willing to pay over a certain price point). The VLAs were not cheap enough versus modern efficient twins.

Most of the airport and aviation growth is in Asia. There will be plenty of new runways there.

Lightsaber

ScottB wrote:

And there may well be some irony if, depending on the freight market and the disposition of the balance of the EK A380 order, the venerable 747 ends up outliving the A380 which was meant to supplant it.

The 747-8F will definitely outlive the a380.

lifecomm wrote:

ScottB wrote:

And there may well be some irony if, depending on the freight market and the disposition of the balance of the EK A380 order, the venerable 747 ends up outliving the A380 which was meant to supplant it.

The 747-8F will definitely outlive the a380.

100%. even if no other orders are booked, there's still like 40 years till the last 748f would be retired

EK will have the A350 and 787 in its fleet. I guarantee it.

Does anyone else think that this could be a way out for Airbus and Etihad to transfer the latter’s A350 family order ‘slots’ over to Emirates as part of the overall transaction ?

lifecomm wrote:

ScottB wrote:

And there may well be some irony if, depending on the freight market and the disposition of the balance of the EK A380 order, the venerable 747 ends up outliving the A380 which was meant to supplant it.

The 747-8F will definitely outlive the a380.

Something will have to haul the scrapped A380 engines about, after all.

MoKa777 wrote:

This will be good.
It will be the push Airbus needs to kill the A380 programme and instead focus on their great twins that make more money.
It will probably be good for EK to finally move away from their MO of just throwing massive capacity at EVERYTHING.
Scrapping the 787 contract and moving away from the A380 may be good for Boeing because EK may then fully commit to its 777X order.
Also, maybe with EY trying to exit its A350 contract, behind the scenes, EK may be looking to take that over so Airbus only loses the EK A380 contract which they could possibly want to stop investing in anyway.
Just my opinion, of course...

I think you're saying what I'm thinking . . . this could be a win-win for all parties.

EK cancels the A380 add-on order and replaces it with an additional 77X order, and they cancel the 78J order and replace it with an A359 order (yes, I know these aircraft are not one-for-one swaps).

A win for Boeing . . . They get a much firmer launch of the 77X which - let's face it - has not been a top-seller and is in a bit of a precarious position. They lose an important 787 order, but that aircraft's order book is much healthier than the 77X's.

A win for Airbus . . . Like the 77X, they get an important order for the lagging A350 program. And yes, it means the imminent end of the A380 program, but that writing's been on the wall for quite a while now and it may be a relief for Airbus. They can finally make a cut-and-dry end-of-life decision for the A380, re-purpose resources and more forward.

A win for RR . . . They get out of the bind of trying to cost-effectively produce a more efficient A380 engine.

It's probably not a real win for EK, but I think their ultimate wish - a real A380neo - is and has been a non-starter for quite some time.

behramjee wrote:

Does anyone else think that this could be a way out for Airbus and Etihad to transfer the latter’s A350 family order ‘slots’ over to Emirates as part of the overall transaction ?

I was thinking the same thing a little up thread. Could be EK helping EY the way Abu Dhabi helped Dubai a few years back.

I'd be willing to bet they will order the A350, but also keep the 787. They could use the 778 and 779 to replace and upgauge the 777s flying today, and use the A350 and 787 for smaller routes without that much demand. Say, if they ordered the 35K (perhaps with EY's slots if they cancel their order), they could have the 78J or even 789 for their smaller routes, the 35K and 779 take over the 77W routes, the 778 for ULH or flights with a lot of cargo demand and the 388 to keep doing its current role. I think it could work out pretty well for them.