xwb565
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:40 pm

queb wrote:
LoganTheBogan wrote:
Worth noting that Jon Ostrower - an incredibly renowned modern aviation journalist - has released an article which states the A330neo is an option being looked at by Emirates:

https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-prod ... r-a330neo/


And 787-10 MoU likely to be cancelled

https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 5053961216


I seriously doubt EK will buy the a330neo even if Airbus gives them away unless things are desperate and they need a really cheap smaller bird. If that's they case why drop the 787 mou?
 
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seahawk
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:43 pm

Penalties for the MoU non existent or small, penalties for cancelling the A380 probably not small, but can be avoided by buying the A330NEO.
 
texl1649
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:01 pm

xwb565 wrote:
queb wrote:
LoganTheBogan wrote:
Worth noting that Jon Ostrower - an incredibly renowned modern aviation journalist - has released an article which states the A330neo is an option being looked at by Emirates:

https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-prod ... r-a330neo/


And 787-10 MoU likely to be cancelled

https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 5053961216


I seriously doubt EK will buy the a330neo even if Airbus gives them away unless things are desperate and they need a really cheap smaller bird. If that's they case why drop the 787 mou?


The issue could be a contractual commitment to Rolls/Airbus that the 330NEO could swap out for, vs. a MoU that can be cancelled without penalty. It’s certainly not that the 330NEO is the plane they want, but they don’t want to pay the full penalty for the firm 380 cancellations...
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:02 pm

EK will be careful not to piss off all of the above. If the A380 is cancelled and they are "forced" to reinvest in the A330neo and the 78J suffers, you can bet the 77X will also get more orders.
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flee
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:21 pm

xwb565 wrote:
queb wrote:
LoganTheBogan wrote:
Worth noting that Jon Ostrower - an incredibly renowned modern aviation journalist - has released an article which states the A330neo is an option being looked at by Emirates:

https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-prod ... r-a330neo/


And 787-10 MoU likely to be cancelled

https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 5053961216

I seriously doubt EK will buy the a330neo even if Airbus gives them away unless things are desperate and they need a really cheap smaller bird. If that's they case why drop the 787 mou?

A330Neo is probably the lowest cost option - the A350 may cost more.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:27 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
EK will be careful not to piss off all of the above.

That doesn't sound like the STC we all know. This is the guy who deliberately snubbed Airbus at PAS by not telling them till the last second that he wasn't going to sign the A380 deal that is now falling apart so they were in the room when Boeing announced the 787 deal that apparently now may also be falling apart.

It seems we may be witnessing the ME3 bubble finally bursting, with A and B and RR and GE all taking collateral damage.

If all this goes in the way Jon reports, how much longer before STC is shown the door?
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frigatebird
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:29 pm

queb wrote:
LoganTheBogan wrote:
Worth noting that Jon Ostrower - an incredibly renowned modern aviation journalist - has released an article which states the A330neo is an option being looked at by Emirates:

https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-prod ... r-a330neo/


And 787-10 MoU likely to be cancelled

https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 5053961216


Right, so EK first drops their A350 order for additional A380s;
then EK immediately says the A350 could be re-ordered;
afters years and years of postponing a decision EK finally decides it wants the 787-10, dropping the A350 for a second time;
and now EK wants to drop both their A380 and 787 commitments and go for the A330neo? :scratchchin:

U-turn Al will have to hand in his crown... :crazy:

If EK considers the A330neo and 777X is to be their future fleet, competing against carriers operating 787s and A350s, I'm starting to worry for the future of EK :boggled:
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:51 pm

frigatebird wrote:
queb wrote:
LoganTheBogan wrote:
Worth noting that Jon Ostrower - an incredibly renowned modern aviation journalist - has released an article which states the A330neo is an option being looked at by Emirates:

https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-prod ... r-a330neo/


And 787-10 MoU likely to be cancelled

https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 5053961216


Right, so EK first drops their A350 order for additional A380s;
then EK immediately says the A350 could be re-ordered;
afters years and years of postponing a decision EK finally decides it wants the 787-10, dropping the A350 for a second time;
and now EK wants to drop both their A380 and 787 commitments and go for the A330neo? :scratchchin:

U-turn Al will have to hand in his crown... :crazy:

If EK considers the A330neo and 777X is to be their future fleet, competing against carriers operating 787s and A350s, I'm starting to worry for the future of EK :boggled:


EK really does have a history of changing its mind. In addition to the above it placed a sizeable order for A346s, after having persuaded Airbus to develop an IGW version which Airbus made the standard version even though it was too heavy for other operators, which EK subsequently dropped for 777s. There was also a MoU for 30x A333s which was never firmed.
 
Breathe
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 1:55 pm

A380 being cancelled, A330neo being evaluated, 787 being cancelled?! This story has more twists and turns than a roller-coaster ride! :shock:
 
AsiaTravel
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:02 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Sorry, this guy is just a much a lunatic as Alex Macherass.

He really has no clue if he thinks EK will buy the a330neo over the 787-10. EK and Rolls' relationship is at an all-time low.

So he stayed up 'all night' writing some pseudo-trash for Twitter hits and will look exceptionally stupid when EK gets the keys to their 787-10 in a couple of years time.


Just because it is not you opinion does not make him a lunatic. Besides, he has much more credentials in aviation than most arm chair CEO of a.net. If EK wanted those 787-10 so much they would have firm up the order now. What are they waiting for?
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:25 pm

Here is a hypothetical EK fleet or future U-Turn opportunities.

50 x Medium capacity, Regional (Asia), <5hr missions, (A333R/787-10)
50 x Large capacity, Medium Haul (Europe), <8hr missions, (A380/779)
50 x Large capacity, Long Haul (Rest of the network) 8hr-12hr missions, (77W/A359)
50 x Medium capacity, Ultra Long Haul (Americas, Australia), 12+ hr missions, (A350ULR/778)

PS: Based on pilot rumors 50 is the general consensus number of VLAs at most Emirates ever need.
 
Miquel787
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:34 pm

First EK ordered the 350..but the order was cancelled.in favour for more A380.s..Clark then pushed Airbus for the 380NEO..It.s not gonna happen said Airbus..After that the battle between the 350 en the 787 started..Big surprise! The MOu for the 787-10 was there..The right plane for us said Clark. Then the follow on order for 36 A380.s was placed. And now they wanna swap the A380 order for the 350 and even the A330 NEO is looked at. And they are trying to cancel the MOu for the 787...

What is next? Reviewing the 777X order? What a slapstick..I bet the the salesmen at A and B would have some sleepless nights over this JoJo company..
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:42 pm

Revelation wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
EK will be careful not to piss off all of the above.

That doesn't sound like the STC we all know. This is the guy who deliberately snubbed Airbus at PAS by not telling them till the last second that he wasn't going to sign the A380 deal that is now falling apart so they were in the room when Boeing announced the 787 deal that apparently now may also be falling apart.

It seems we may be witnessing the ME3 bubble finally bursting, with A and B and RR and GE all taking collateral damage.

If all this goes in the way Jon reports, how much longer before STC is shown the door?


IMHO, it is time STC add emeritus to his job title.

The ME3 are unwinding. Hub growth in Asia allows bypass. The new IST, SAW expansion, ET, and other competition is having an impact. This doesn't mean EK goes away. Since they are profitable, they can adapt. They are simply no longer the Boggieman.

RR needs to fix the relationship. They missed promise on the A380 engines.

Lightsaber
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musman9853
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 2:54 pm

xwb565 wrote:
queb wrote:
LoganTheBogan wrote:
Worth noting that Jon Ostrower - an incredibly renowned modern aviation journalist - has released an article which states the A330neo is an option being looked at by Emirates:

https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-prod ... r-a330neo/


And 787-10 MoU likely to be cancelled

https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 5053961216


I seriously doubt EK will buy the a330neo even if Airbus gives them away unless things are desperate and they need a really cheap smaller bird. If that's they case why drop the 787 mou?



I can see 78J being replaced by a359. I don't know why they would get a339 though. a339 can hold, what, 275 pax in a 2 class? 78J is like 330ish. Doesn't make sense to me
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Erebus
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:39 pm

So, it would seem that there's a bit more to the story why the 78J hasn't been firmed up than just having plenty of time before first deliveries. EK's long term fleet strategy is definitely up for some serious review with everything back in consideration.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:45 pm

LoganTheBogan wrote:
Worth noting that Jon Ostrower - an incredibly renowned modern aviation journalist - has released an article which states the A330neo is an option being looked at by Emirates:

https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-prod ... r-a330neo/


EK get the T7000 on the A380 if they convert the 787 order to A330Ns?

musman9853 wrote:
xwb565 wrote:
queb wrote:

And 787-10 MoU likely to be cancelled

https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 5053961216


I seriously doubt EK will buy the a330neo even if Airbus gives them away unless things are desperate and they need a really cheap smaller bird. If that's they case why drop the 787 mou?



I can see 78J being replaced by a359. I don't know why they would get a339 though. a339 can hold, what, 275 pax in a 2 class? 78J is like 330ish. Doesn't make sense to me


287 in a 3 class.
 
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AECM
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 3:54 pm

TAP Portugal A339 have a two class layout C34Y264 = 298 pax
Air Senegal A339 will have a three class layout C32W21Y237 = 290 pax
Delta A339 may have the same cabin layout of the current A333, a three class layout C34W32Y227 = 293 pax

Singapore B78J have a two class layout C36Y301 = 337 pax
Ethiad B78J have a two class layout C32Y304 = 336 pax
United B78J have a three class layout C44W21Y253 = 318 pax
Last edited by AECM on Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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william
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:00 pm

queb wrote:
LoganTheBogan wrote:
Worth noting that Jon Ostrower - an incredibly renowned modern aviation journalist - has released an article which states the A330neo is an option being looked at by Emirates:

https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-prod ... r-a330neo/


And 787-10 MoU likely to be cancelled

https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 5053961216


Not surprising, one has to expect it. Boeing would facilitate it in exchange for more 777X sales. Airbus would get a much needed order boost for its A330NEO line.
 
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william
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:02 pm

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/a380-fu ... rates.html

"Shares of Airbus and Rolls-Royce both rose Friday following the suggestion that the A380 program could end."

Well, we know what the investors want.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:02 pm

B78X is perfect for EK Europe and Asia destinations.......A380 problems are not B78X problems......
 
emiratesdriver
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:06 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Revelation wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
EK will be careful not to piss off all of the above.

That doesn't sound like the STC we all know. This is the guy who deliberately snubbed Airbus at PAS by not telling them till the last second that he wasn't going to sign the A380 deal that is now falling apart so they were in the room when Boeing announced the 787 deal that apparently now may also be falling apart.

It seems we may be witnessing the ME3 bubble finally bursting, with A and B and RR and GE all taking collateral damage.

If all this goes in the way Jon reports, how much longer before STC is shown the door?


IMHO, it is time STC add emeritus to his job title.

The ME3 are unwinding. Hub growth in Asia allows bypass. The new IST, SAW expansion, ET, and other competition is having an impact. This doesn't mean EK goes away. Since they are profitable, they can adapt. They are simply no longer the Boggieman.

RR needs to fix the relationship. They missed promise on the A380 engines.

Lightsaber


It’s no secret that within EK, despite appearances, little Timmy is dead weight that will be soon cut adrift with a bit of luck.
 
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william
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:08 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Revelation wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
EK will be careful not to piss off all of the above.

That doesn't sound like the STC we all know. This is the guy who deliberately snubbed Airbus at PAS by not telling them till the last second that he wasn't going to sign the A380 deal that is now falling apart so they were in the room when Boeing announced the 787 deal that apparently now may also be falling apart.

It seems we may be witnessing the ME3 bubble finally bursting, with A and B and RR and GE all taking collateral damage.

If all this goes in the way Jon reports, how much longer before STC is shown the door?


IMHO, it is time STC add emeritus to his job title.

The ME3 are unwinding. Hub growth in Asia allows bypass. The new IST, SAW expansion, ET, and other competition is having an impact. This doesn't mean EK goes away. Since they are profitable, they can adapt. They are simply no longer the Boggieman.

RR needs to fix the relationship. They missed promise on the A380 engines.

Lightsaber


As I stated before, if the A380 gets cancelled and EK moves to 777/A350s for LD routes, I see the airline center of gravity moving from the M3 back to Asia. Especially influence of Airbus and Boeing, like it used to be before the upstart EK showed up on the scene.

I see a resurgence of Singapore, Cathay, Qantas and Korean influence on the two major aircraft manufacturers along with upstarts like Air Asia.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:09 pm

william wrote:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/a380-future-in-doubt-as-airbus-meets-with-emirates.html

"Shares of Airbus and Rolls-Royce both rose Friday following the suggestion that the A380 program could end."

Well, we know what the investors want.

Wow! A congratulations you lost business spike!
.
Honestly, at 6 per year or 24 engines, the A380 cannot be a money maker and is thus a distraction. It is sadly time.

Lightsaber
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william
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:11 pm

emiratesdriver wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Revelation wrote:
That doesn't sound like the STC we all know. This is the guy who deliberately snubbed Airbus at PAS by not telling them till the last second that he wasn't going to sign the A380 deal that is now falling apart so they were in the room when Boeing announced the 787 deal that apparently now may also be falling apart.

It seems we may be witnessing the ME3 bubble finally bursting, with A and B and RR and GE all taking collateral damage.

If all this goes in the way Jon reports, how much longer before STC is shown the door?


IMHO, it is time STC add emeritus to his job title.

The ME3 are unwinding. Hub growth in Asia allows bypass. The new IST, SAW expansion, ET, and other competition is having an impact. This doesn't mean EK goes away. Since they are profitable, they can adapt. They are simply no longer the Boggieman.

RR needs to fix the relationship. They missed promise on the A380 engines.

Lightsaber



It’s no secret that within EK, despite appearances, little Timmy is dead weight that will be soon cut adrift with a bit of luck.


Emiratesdriver, whats word from inside company regarding this A380 rumor?
 
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Richard28
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:23 pm

pabloeing wrote:
B78X is perfect for EK Europe and Asia destinations.......A380 problems are not B78X problems......


The point that is being made is that if the A350 comes into EK as a result of A380 problems it would most likely have consequences for other types in the fleet, with the 787-10 most at risk through it not being firmed and the closeness in terms of size.

Its the domino effect, rather than a direct effect.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:37 pm

Some thoughts:
1. EK was announcing orders right and left a decade ago, but the last fully committed order was around 2012 for the 777x, it was the largest widebody order ever, and more 777's that EK had flying at the time.
2. EK has more than 100 380's currently, that may be enough for now. Where do they take 30 more still to be delivered, soon at 6 per year coming to them.
3. EY is in big financial distress, could EK have caught the same distress bug to a lessor degree.
4. Airbus has the problem of the future of the 380, with Enders soon to leave, it will ease the pain if Enders takes action rather than the new CEO.

Could Airbus be desiring to drop around 10 of the last 380s from the current order, keep the line at 8/year so it closes in 3 not 6 years, EK taking an order for 350's in trade but with far out deliveries. Enders gets to place a firm plan that way to end the 380 with something to show for it. EK clears the decks, basically taking very few planes for a number of years to digest the ones they already have, but not looking like they cancelled to the public.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:40 pm

emiratesdriver wrote:
It’s no secret that within EK, despite appearances, little Timmy is dead weight that will be soon cut adrift with a bit of luck.

As the old saying goes, be careful what you wish for...
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:49 pm

AsiaTravel wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Sorry, this guy is just a much a lunatic as Alex Macherass.

He really has no clue if he thinks EK will buy the a330neo over the 787-10. EK and Rolls' relationship is at an all-time low.

So he stayed up 'all night' writing some pseudo-trash for Twitter hits and will look exceptionally stupid when EK gets the keys to their 787-10 in a couple of years time.


Just because it is not you opinion does not make him a lunatic. Besides, he has much more credentials in aviation than most arm chair CEO of a.net. If EK wanted those 787-10 so much they would have firm up the order now. What are they waiting for?


It's not an opinion. It's fact. He's a pseudo journo - not a God.

As for EK not firming the 787s, well, it took them a while to firm the 777-X's after the 2013 Dubai air show, so what's your point? Same with the A380s.

EK will not be buying A330neo's when capital markets are highly reticent to back/fund it. Given that Ostrich-Egg is a 'journo', it stands to reason he knows diddly-squat about the finance world and just why EK won't sink a dirham into the A330neo.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:54 pm

william wrote:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/a380-future-in-doubt-as-airbus-meets-with-emirates.html

"Shares of Airbus and Rolls-Royce both rose Friday following the suggestion that the A380 program could end."

Well, we know what the investors want.


lightsaber wrote:
william wrote:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/a380-future-in-doubt-as-airbus-meets-with-emirates.html

"Shares of Airbus and Rolls-Royce both rose Friday following the suggestion that the A380 program could end."

Well, we know what the investors want.

Wow! A congratulations you lost business spike!
.
Honestly, at 6 per year or 24 engines, the A380 cannot be a money maker and is thus a distraction. It is sadly time.

Lightsaber


No where does it say anything about the stocks rising.
Looking at the stocks themselves, they are up .20c!
That could have everything to do with the A330N or A350 speculation.
 
musman9853
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 4:58 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
AsiaTravel wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Sorry, this guy is just a much a lunatic as Alex Macherass.

He really has no clue if he thinks EK will buy the a330neo over the 787-10. EK and Rolls' relationship is at an all-time low.

So he stayed up 'all night' writing some pseudo-trash for Twitter hits and will look exceptionally stupid when EK gets the keys to their 787-10 in a couple of years time.


Just because it is not you opinion does not make him a lunatic. Besides, he has much more credentials in aviation than most arm chair CEO of a.net. If EK wanted those 787-10 so much they would have firm up the order now. What are they waiting for?


It's not an opinion. It's fact. He's a pseudo journo - not a God.

As for EK not firming the 787s, well, it took them a while to firm the 777-X's after the 2013 Dubai air show, so what's your point? Same with the A380s.

EK will not be buying A330neo's when capital markets are highly reticent to back/fund it. Given that Ostrich-Egg is a 'journo', it stands to reason he knows diddly-squat about the finance world and just why EK won't sink a dirham into the A330neo.



he's legit. he worked with bllomberg, cnn, etc
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william
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:18 pm

Slug71 wrote:
william wrote:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/a380-future-in-doubt-as-airbus-meets-with-emirates.html

"Shares of Airbus and Rolls-Royce both rose Friday following the suggestion that the A380 program could end."

Well, we know what the investors want.


lightsaber wrote:
william wrote:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/a380-future-in-doubt-as-airbus-meets-with-emirates.html

"Shares of Airbus and Rolls-Royce both rose Friday following the suggestion that the A380 program could end."

Well, we know what the investors want.

Wow! A congratulations you lost business spike!
.
Honestly, at 6 per year or 24 engines, the A380 cannot be a money maker and is thus a distraction. It is sadly time.

Lightsaber




No where does it say anything about the stocks rising.
Looking at the stocks themselves, they are up .20c!
That could have everything to do with the A330N or A350 speculation.


What? I quoted from the article.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:22 pm

I'm just going to wait and see here. Way too many rumors and different possibilities here.
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ClassicLover
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:28 pm

At the oneworld alliance event today, British Airways reiterated they still want more Airbus A380s.

"British Airways would love to buy more A380’s said Willie Walsh. Customers like them and the airline likes them. Airbus has been told the price that BA is willing to pay but, so far, they are not willing to meet it. This issue is ‘live’ again because Airbus has confirmed this week that Emirates is looking to cancel some of their A380 orders and switch to A350’s, leaving the A380 production line looking worryingly bare."

Source: Head for Points. The article also has other interesting comments about the alliance (and QR etc).
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mig17
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:34 pm

This can be nothing, just a PR/negociation move but it also can be more. It even can be a big bang ...

Emirates has 53 A380 on orders, 36 of them not firmed because of engine option. Emirates has 150 77X still not unconditional. And Emirates has 40 787 on MOU. That is 243 aircraft "on order", 226 of them not contractualy so solid.

Emirates has a fleet of 258 aircraft, 777 & A380 all quite young. They clearly have overorder to cover their need in case of continious growth, but the situation seems to have change. Other airline have intagreted more efficient planes after the 747 departure and have not taken much A380. So the megahub strategy of EK may be at risk and they have to adapt now. They are not going to take everything they have ordered.

My bet from far outside, very few of the 53 A380 will be produced for EK. The 787 order is dead. The 777X order will be reduced by half. No A330NEO, EK will keep around the 77W/L and more recent A380 longer. And EK will take some A350 and 787 from Etihad. No new orders or top up at all ...
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uta999
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:36 pm

Time for BA to step in and say we will lease 24 A388/RR but you arrange the finance. Airbus might bite to save the program..
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:40 pm

william wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
william wrote:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/a380-future-in-doubt-as-airbus-meets-with-emirates.html

"Shares of Airbus and Rolls-Royce both rose Friday following the suggestion that the A380 program could end."

Well, we know what the investors want.


lightsaber wrote:
Wow! A congratulations you lost business spike!
.
Honestly, at 6 per year or 24 engines, the A380 cannot be a money maker and is thus a distraction. It is sadly time.

Lightsaber




No where does it say anything about the stocks rising.
Looking at the stocks themselves, they are up .20c!
That could have everything to do with the A330N or A350 speculation.


What? I quoted from the article.


Well then the article changed. Looking at the stocks themselves, there was actually a sharp DECLINE earlier in the day before it rose again. Probably on the A330N announcement.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:44 pm

Slug71 wrote:
william wrote:
Slug71 wrote:





No where does it say anything about the stocks rising.
Looking at the stocks themselves, they are up .20c!
That could have everything to do with the A330N or A350 speculation.


What? I quoted from the article.


Well then the article changed. Looking at the stocks themselves, there was actually a sharp DECLINE earlier in the day before it rose again. Probably on the A330N announcement.


Nope, still there, here are more paragraphs to see the context.

"Speaking to reporters at an event in London on Friday, the chief executive of British Airways parent IAG, Willie Walsh, said he remained happy with owning the A380, but if Airbus wanted to sell more "they're going to have to be very aggressive on price."

Jefferies estimated that ending the loss-making A380 program at its current stage would save Airbus as much as 300 million euros ($344 million) per annum.

While that is not deemed a huge benefit, Jefferies noted it would free capacity for Airbus to focus on its more popular A320 and A350 models.

Shares of Airbus and Rolls-Royce both rose Friday following the suggestion that the A380 program could end."


Stock market is volatile so things can change quickly.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:53 pm

william wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
william wrote:

What? I quoted from the article.


Well then the article changed. Looking at the stocks themselves, there was actually a sharp DECLINE earlier in the day before it rose again. Probably on the A330N announcement.


Nope, still there, here are more paragraphs to see the context.

"Speaking to reporters at an event in London on Friday, the chief executive of British Airways parent IAG, Willie Walsh, said he remained happy with owning the A380, but if Airbus wanted to sell more "they're going to have to be very aggressive on price."

Jefferies estimated that ending the loss-making A380 program at its current stage would save Airbus as much as 300 million euros ($344 million) per annum.

While that is not deemed a huge benefit, Jefferies noted it would free capacity for Airbus to focus on its more popular A320 and A350 models.

Shares of Airbus and Rolls-Royce both rose Friday following the suggestion that the A380 program could end."


Stock market is volatile so things can change quickly.


Well for whatever reason the whole article wasn't loading for me then. The stocks still dont corroborate the article though.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:05 pm

It is understandable that Willie wants cheap A380s, especially when BA operates from one of the most slot constraint airports in the world. But why would Airbus want to sell more A380 on even bigger loss ? Airbus may have finally accepted that they have to forego hopes of making any profit from the A380 program and cut losses by closing the production early and make more money from producing more A320/A350 frames.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:07 pm

First time post! Lurker for long long time!

I’m feeling the rumors are a bit out of control here! It also doesn’t make sense why Emirates would negotiate a conversion on an order that hasn’t been firmed up yet? I’m thinking their should not be any penalties here for something that hasn’t been signed?

To me this is Airbus trying to save the order by converting it to something else since it’s not in the bag thanks to RR.

Also, A350/330neo just does not make sense.

If airbus wants to drop the A380 which is what worked for EK. So be it! Their is no actual good replacement from airbus for the A380.

It’s all now from Boeing and the biggest advantage to the 78J is the fact that all crew for the 777x can probably fly the 787 as well when needed for equipment change on the fly.

And the dreamliner can be configured for more seats than the competition. That is worth It’s extra price tag and investment. That will save actual costs of training, etc.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:08 pm

A330neo? :boggled:

All of this would make total sense with the A350. The A330neo, I just don't get. Limited range, but with less capacity than the 787-10. Aged interior styling (even after the Airspace refresh) for an airline that loves its showy cabins.
 
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flee
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:10 pm

Yeah, it may be ironic - but if Airbus rings the "last orders" bell now, it may actually receive some orders!

In any case, I think both EK and Airbus needed to talk about the order since it is stalemate with RR. So lets wait and see what the outcome is...
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:11 pm

I'm sure BA wants cheap A389s, but below breakeven isn't viable. It just might be time.

flee wrote:
queb wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
EK hasn't firmed the last 36 per prior link I posted.
Lightsaber

yes it is: 20 firm + 16 options, the 787-10 is not firmed yet.

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... a380s.html

I believe what isn't firm is the engine order - and this is past the Airbus deadline. So the order is in jeopardy because RR is not able to meet EK's performance demands.

An aircraft without engines?!? Obviously EK would have a contingency clause that the airframe order is not firm unless they can buy at acceptable terms everything needed to fly it.

Bummer for Airbus RR missed fuel burn.

AE could build engines, but is this an out?

Others have posted on how EK just might not need that many A380s.

Lightsaber
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:27 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Bummer for Airbus RR missed fuel burn.
Lightsaber


Didn't know it was fuel burn issue. I was thinking the issue with 972B-84(356kN) is the excessive off-wing maintenance, every 800?? cycles.
If I recall correctly some pilots are of the opinion EK (with its 78% PLF), don't even need the higher thrust of 972B. They could have just opted for 970B-84(348kN) like others.
 
DylanHarvey
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 6:27 pm

AECM wrote:
TAP Portugal A339 have a two class layout C34Y264 = 298 pax
Air Senegal A339 will have a three class layout C32W21Y237 = 290 pax
Delta A339 may have the same cabin layout of the current A333, a three class layout C34W32Y227 = 293 pax

Singapore B78J have a two class layout C36Y301 = 337 pax
Ethiad B78J have a two class layout C32Y304 = 336 pax
United B78J have a three class layout C44W21Y253 = 318 pax

DL is gonna be 281 in a 4 class.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:12 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
At the oneworld alliance event today, British Airways reiterated they still want more Airbus A380s.

"British Airways would love to buy more A380’s said Willie Walsh. Customers like them and the airline likes them. Airbus has been told the price that BA is willing to pay but, so far, they are not willing to meet it. This issue is ‘live’ again because Airbus has confirmed this week that Emirates is looking to cancel some of their A380 orders and switch to A350’s, leaving the A380 production line looking worryingly bare."

Source: Head for Points. The article also has other interesting comments about the alliance (and QR etc).

Again, it is Airbus who is considering shutting down the A380 factories earlier than planned for the obvious reason: they lose money on each A380 they make.

Selling BA some A380s at a price lower than Airbus will accept doesn't help accomplish the goal of shutting down the A380 factories early.

BA's desire is thus inoperative if not irrelevant.
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:14 pm

Erebus wrote:
So, it would seem that there's a bit more to the story why the 78J hasn't been firmed up than just having plenty of time before first deliveries. EK's long term fleet strategy is definitely up for some serious review with everything back in consideration.

This has been building throughout 2018.

It started with F9 interest in the A321. EK tried to extract a friends and family deal (keen price and early deliveries), which fell on deaf ears at Airbus.

The A380/RR miss, which instead of at least 2 PiPs (one to match EA/just better, one a step change), has resulted in RR amending EK's maintenance contracts, removing some penalty clauses, and incurring shorter TBO's. And the contract terms perpetuate beyond 12 years, not necessarily because EK will extend operations, but for the leasors benefit. Completely understandable therefore why RR isn't keen to offer engines for another 36 aircraft, and in fact would prefer part of the current 50 order not to proceed.

Then the A380 top up order, which EK thought would be an inducement for Airbus to apply pressure to RR to deliver on the engine specs. And the 787 MoU to encourage Boeing to lean on GE to extract an EA offering. Came to zero.

While this was happening, EK re-evaluated all the current MoU's, prospective and current orders. Is the value of our business really being reflected in our cradle to grave deals? Are the OEM's receptive to our unique business needs?

And the conclusion. Current A380, 777X and 787 purchases offer a once in a lifetime opportunity to extract a mega deal.

Unfortunately for EK, it comes at a time when A & B have never been firmer or tougher about deals, contracts and enforcement, and GE and RR are distracted by issues, developments and future ownership (sorry QF, there will be no free exit on your A380 order, though it will be dressed up to save face).

So the perfect opportunity and storm for EK. The billion dollar question is who will blink first?

The A380 is surely gone, unless there is a remarkable turnaround at GE/EA, which would have to be requested / demanded by Boeing, subject to EK going unconditional on the 777X and 787, and using GE on the 787. In some respects, would be perfect for Boeing, as Airbus will continue to be distracted by the A380, at the same time being able to partly manipulate A380 pricing via engine cost. Despite 4 versus 2 engines, the A380 caps 777X pricing.

If Airbus can persuade EK to switch from the A380 to A350 / A330, how can they (and RR) incentivise and soften the switch? Unique EK versions? Queue jumping? Shareholding in Airbus / RR strategic partnership? Influence a FAL in India in return for....?

An all Boeing / GE fleet would do no favours to EK in Europe, and even Asia.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:18 pm

If the A380 goes, EK needs more 77X. Of they want to replace and grow from the 77W, they need the 77X. If they shelve a plane that was nearly purpose built for them, they'll shoot themselves in the foot if they want to be on good terms with two manufactures. I think the 779 only stands to gain here.

The 778 and 78J are the potential losers next to the A388 with orders shifting to the A359/K. This leaves room for the debate: which is better for their short-term and long-term needs: 78J or A359/K for their medium-haul and regional routes?
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:24 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Bummer for Airbus RR missed fuel burn.
Lightsaber


Didn't know it was fuel burn issue. I was thinking the issue with 972B-84(356kN) is the excessive off-wing maintenance, every 800?? cycles.
If I recall correctly some pilots are of the opinion EK (with its 78% PLF), don't even need the higher thrust of 972B. They could have just opted for 970B-84(348kN) like others.


That may be part of it, but the main issue is that the last T900 PiP missed the performance guarantees. By a big margin IIRC.
RR is now having to pay penalties on that. And they have said there will be no more PiPs for the engine. EK and RR were most likely trying to negotiate another PiP for this latest order which would include substantial gains to make up for the missed performance of the last PiP.
RR doesn't have the resources to throw at the T900 and they probably don't want to given the low orders/production rate.
Their resources are better spent on the XWB, T1000-TEN/T7000, Advance, and Ultrafan.

Which is why it should be in RR's benefit to help pay for the certification of the T7000 on the A380.
They wouldn't have to pay the penalties of the T900 shortfalls anymore and the remaining T900 resources can be moved over to their more successful and development programs.
And it would make EK along with all the other RR A380 customers happy since the T900 is essentially an End of Life product at this point.
 
ScottB
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:25 pm

william wrote:
Jefferies estimated that ending the loss-making A380 program at its current stage would save Airbus as much as 300 million euros ($344 million) per annum.

While that is not deemed a huge benefit, Jefferies noted it would free capacity for Airbus to focus on its more popular A320 and A350 models.


If that is really accurate, the implication is basically that Airbus loses $50 to $60 million on every A380 delivered, assuming the run-rate from 2020 onward of six per year. That's absolutely insane. While it's not huge in the context of a company that does about 200x that in annual turnover, it also represents a drag of nearly 10% on annual profit when compared to Airbus's 2017 EBIT of 3.4 billion euro and thecommercial aircraft segment's adjusted EBIT of 3.6 million euro in the same year.

2175301 wrote:
Another possibility: The articles and press release says that Airbus is in discussions with EK about their A380 Order.

Note: It did not say "which" order.

The 20+16 A380 order may still be legally dead - and not coming to life. So it may not be the order being discussed.


To be more precise, the Airbus press statement in its entirety (emphasis added is mine) states:

Airbus SE (stock exchange symbol: AIR) confirms it is in discussions with Emirates Airline in relation to its A380 contract. The details of Airbus’ commercial discussions with customers remain confidential.


Since it only refers to Emirates holding a single A380 contract (as opposed "one of its A380 contracts") I think we can conclude that the entire balance of the order may be up for review, and not just the 20+16. As before, I think the key issue lies in which party chose to open these discussions. If that was EK, I think it's pretty easy to get a deal done that looks good for Airbus and also makes them a nice profit; i.e. EK orders several dozen A350s and walks away from 787-10 and/or 777X orders/MOUs. If Airbus approached EK (basically because it looks like EK may walk away from the RR engine deal due to missed promises), things are messier. If Airbus proposes to cancel some portion of EK's order as part of shutting down the program, they may owe some penalties, although it may be worthwhile in order to get out of a deal that apparently loses eight figures per frame delivered if the Jefferies analyst is to be believed.

xwb777 wrote:
Not to drift away from the thread's topic. BA is still interested in buying additional A380s if the price is right. WW has said that if Airbus wants to sell more A380s, they should set a cheaper price.


WW is just spouting off nonsense. It is fairly well-known that the A380 program isn't profitable in its current state ("digestible losses") so he wants Airbus to cut prices even further? Maybe they make up the losses on volume? He doesn't seem to have a problem with paying the going rate for A350s or A320neos, and the purchase price savings he's talking about are likely well under one percent of the lifetime total cost of ownership. If additional A380s make sense in the BA fleet, they likely even make sense at a price higher than he apparently seems willing to pay.

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