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Slug71
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:31 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
If the A380 goes, EK needs more 77X. Of they want to replace and grow from the 77W, they need the 77X. If they shelve a plane that was nearly purpose built for them, they'll shoot themselves in the foot if they want to be on good terms with two manufactures. I think the 779 only stands to gain here.

The 778 and 78J are the potential losers next to the A388 with orders shifting to the A359/K. This leaves room for the debate: which is better for their short-term and long-term needs: 78J or A359/K for their medium-haul and regional routes?


No they dont need more 777X. If the A350 is ordered, the 777X order will likely be at least cut. If the A330N is ordered, the 787 MoU will be cancelled/expire. The A380s that are in service and still coming (firmed orders) are not going anywhere soon.
EK has too many 777X on order.
Last edited by Slug71 on Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:36 pm

Slug71 wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
If the A380 goes, EK needs more 77X. Of they want to replace and grow from the 77W, they need the 77X. If they shelve a plane that was nearly purpose built for them, they'll shoot themselves in the foot if they want to be on good terms with two manufactures. I think the 779 only stands to gain here.

The 778 and 78J are the potential losers next to the A388 with orders shifting to the A359/K. This leaves room for the debate: which is better for their short-term and long-term needs: 78J or A359/K for their medium-haul and regional routes?


No they dont need more 777X. If the A350 is ordered, the 777X order will likely be at least cut. If the A330N is ordered, the 787 will be cancelled. The A380s that are in service and still coming (firmed orders) are not going anywhere soon.
EK has too many 777X on order.


Obviously EK doesn't think so or they wouldn't have ordered that many. If the A380 goes, they need more 779.

Let's also not forget that EK just pays the penalties, says "F-U" to Airbus and orders more of all 78J/778/779. It's just as possible as the opposite fantasy.
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:38 pm

ScottB wrote:
william wrote:
Jefferies estimated that ending the loss-making A380 program at its current stage would save Airbus as much as 300 million euros ($344 million) per annum.

While that is not deemed a huge benefit, Jefferies noted it would free capacity for Airbus to focus on its more popular A320 and A350 models.


If that is really accurate, the implication is basically that Airbus loses $50 to $60 million on every A380 delivered, assuming the run-rate from 2020 onward of six per year. That's absolutely insane. While it's not huge in the context of a company that does about 200x that in annual turnover, it also represents a drag of nearly 10% on annual profit when compared to Airbus's 2017 EBIT of 3.4 billion euro and thecommercial aircraft segment's adjusted EBIT of 3.6 million euro in the same year.
.

I believe the $50 million Euro loss includes buying down prepaid expenses (Airbus paying Airbus, or as we Americas say, color of money.). At some point it is best to stop the distraction. At six per year, a non-military aircraft can only per a distraction for a large company.

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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:47 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
If the A380 goes, EK needs more 77X. Of they want to replace and grow from the 77W, they need the 77X. If they shelve a plane that was nearly purpose built for them, they'll shoot themselves in the foot if they want to be on good terms with two manufactures. I think the 779 only stands to gain here.

The 778 and 78J are the potential losers next to the A388 with orders shifting to the A359/K. This leaves room for the debate: which is better for their short-term and long-term needs: 78J or A359/K for their medium-haul and regional routes?


No they dont need more 777X. If the A350 is ordered, the 777X order will likely be at least cut. If the A330N is ordered, the 787 will be cancelled. The A380s that are in service and still coming (firmed orders) are not going anywhere soon.
EK has too many 777X on order.


Obviously EK doesn't think so or they wouldn't have ordered that many. If the A380 goes, they need more 779.

Let's also not forget that EK just pays the penalties, says "F-U" to Airbus and orders more of all 78J/778/779. It's just as possible as the opposite fantasy.


That order was placed long before the 787 MoU. The 787s can do a lot of the 777 routes. In turn freeing up 777s for A380 routes. The 787 was mostly ordered for seasonal rotation and frequency flexibility.
The A380s are still going to be in service for a long time. They dont need replacement any time soon. They still have a bunch on order that they are taking.
One could argue that EK is currently over capacity as they face more competition from other Airlines.

It not "fanboi"ism, its reality. EK is not in the same position it once was a short time ago.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:03 pm

ScottB wrote:
WW is just spouting off nonsense. It is fairly well-known that the A380 program isn't profitable in its current state ("digestible losses") so he wants Airbus to cut prices even further? Maybe they make up the losses on volume? He doesn't seem to have a problem with paying the going rate for A350s or A320neos, and the purchase price savings he's talking about are likely well under one percent of the lifetime total cost of ownership. If additional A380s make sense in the BA fleet, they likely even make sense at a price higher than he apparently seems willing to pay.


Indeed. Willy is just making noise. For the 380 program to keep limping along, it's EK or nothing. For EK...it's fix the T900 or nothing and since RR is done with T900 PIP's...it's most likely the end of the 380 program in the near future.

Even if BA was serious, there is no way they would order enough of them to keep the line open if/when EK drops out. I think WW was pulling a bit of a MOL move by issuing a 'fake news' press release to get some free headlines on a slow news day.

Shutting down the 380 line helps everybody; EK, Airbus, RR...even Boeing. EK has enough 380's already so they get the opportunity to slowly switch over to more versatile aircraft. Airbus stops some bleeding and frees resources that can go to money making programs. RR gets to reallocate much needed resources into the troubled 787 and 330 engines, and Boeing has a crack at filling some gaps at EK with more 777X's and it may increase the odds of turning the 787 MOU into real sales.

Of course, the death knells for the 380 have rung before and this might just be much ado about nothing.
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:21 pm

Slug71 wrote:
No they dont need more 777X. If the A350 is ordered, the 777X order will likely be at least cut. If the A330N is ordered, the 787 MoU will be cancelled/expire. The A380s that are in service and still coming (firmed orders) are not going anywhere soon.
EK has too many 777X on order.


Disagree. EK needs the 777X no matter what else it does. If A380 is canceled, 777-9 will replace some of the earliest A380s, and not one-for-one -- to avoid major capacity shrinkage, EK will need to add 3-4 777X for every 2-3 A380 replaced. It will also be needed for any and all 77W routes where passenger traffic is growing. And it's a firm order that will require either penalties or moving to another Boeing product to cancel. Even with an A350 order, I expect the 777X order to remain, and possibly to grow a bit. But with the latest rumor that EK is talking to Airbus about A330neos rather than A350s, the 777X is even more secure.

On the other hand, the 787 order, never firmed, may well be toast in the event of either an A350 or A330neo order. I think an A350 order could make sense but would be very puzzled by an A330neo order... but that's the rumor.

I agree with many others that determining whether Airbus or EK initiated this whole discussion would be very illuminating.
Last edited by seabosdca on Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
wingman
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 8:52 pm

Sorry if I missed this but are there known penalties on the 20 380s or is that order contingent upon the now stalled RR talks? I'm wondering if that last 380 contract was really more of MOU from a EK financial liability standpoint and in that case in the same bucket as the 787-10 order.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 9:10 pm

wingman wrote:
Sorry if I missed this but are there known penalties on the 20 380s or is that order contingent upon the now stalled RR talks? I'm wondering if that last 380 contract was really more of MOU from a EK financial liability standpoint and in that case in the same bucket as the 787-10 order.

Unknown if there are penalties. EK would be unlikely to not have an escape clause. Airbus would be unlikely to not put in some financial penalty. It is unlikely Airbus could have put in significantly large penalties as EK wouldn't sign a blank cheque either.

So we debate. It likely is an amount EK would walk away from but would rather save. Since EY is trying to get out of their A35K contract, there should be some common ground. RR could save themselves too.

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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 9:47 pm

smartplane wrote:
The A380 is surely gone, unless there is a remarkable turnaround at GE/EA, which would have to be requested / demanded by Boeing, subject to EK going unconditional on the 777X and 787, and using GE on the 787. In some respects, would be perfect for Boeing, as Airbus will continue to be distracted by the A380, at the same time being able to partly manipulate A380 pricing via engine cost. Despite 4 versus 2 engines, the A380 caps 777X pricing.

If Airbus can persuade EK to switch from the A380 to A350 / A330, how can they (and RR) incentivise and soften the switch? Unique EK versions? Queue jumping? Shareholding in Airbus / RR strategic partnership? Influence a FAL in India in return for....?

An all Boeing / GE fleet would do no favours to EK in Europe, and even Asia.

Thanks as always for the intriguing post.

It is full of consideration of the commercial aspects of the situation, but still I wonder if the A350/A330 fleet would be a good outcome technically for EK.

The 777X was said to be made to EK's specifications, and the 787-10 has to be the best in class approach to serving EU/Asia/Africa from Dubai.

EK might end up winning the (commercial) battle, yet losing the (technical) war.

It's hard to imagine a business environment where EK will down size all the way from A380 to A350, but then again it was hard to imagine PanAm collapsing too.

ScottB wrote:
As before, I think the key issue lies in which party chose to open these discussions. If that was EK, I think it's pretty easy to get a deal done that looks good for Airbus and also makes them a nice profit; i.e. EK orders several dozen A350s and walks away from 787-10 and/or 777X orders/MOUs. If Airbus approached EK (basically because it looks like EK may walk away from the RR engine deal due to missed promises), things are messier.

:checkmark:

JoeCanuck wrote:
Shutting down the 380 line helps everybody; EK, Airbus, RR...even Boeing. EK has enough 380's already so they get the opportunity to slowly switch over to more versatile aircraft. Airbus stops some bleeding and frees resources that can go to money making programs. RR gets to reallocate much needed resources into the troubled 787 and 330 engines, and Boeing has a crack at filling some gaps at EK with more 777X's and it may increase the odds of turning the 787 MOU into real sales.

I think the gain to RR is financial. I think the kind of "resources" it was dedicating to A380 was writing checks to make up for fuel burn and time on wing issues. I'm not sure how much of a boost they'll get by not having to write those checks.

I think Boeing may gain from not having A380 in the marketplace, but in reality A380 has not been a competitor except for EK for several years now.

A loser in my book is ANA who bought the "fleet" of 3 A380s to get Airbus's support to prevent Skymark and its HND slots going to Delta. I wonder how long ANA will bleed money before sending those frames off to Teruel to join the A380 parts cache?
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Slug71
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 9:54 pm

seabosdca wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
No they dont need more 777X. If the A350 is ordered, the 777X order will likely be at least cut. If the A330N is ordered, the 787 MoU will be cancelled/expire. The A380s that are in service and still coming (firmed orders) are not going anywhere soon.
EK has too many 777X on order.


Disagree. EK needs the 777X no matter what else it does. If A380 is canceled, 777-9 will replace some of the earliest A380s, and not one-for-one -- to avoid major capacity shrinkage, EK will need to add 3-4 777X for every 2-3 A380 replaced. It will also be needed for any and all 77W routes where passenger traffic is growing. And it's a firm order that will require either penalties or moving to another Boeing product to cancel. Even with an A350 order, I expect the 777X order to remain, and possibly to grow a bit. But with the latest rumor that EK is talking to Airbus about A330neos rather than A350s, the 777X is even more secure.

On the other hand, the 787 order, never firmed, may well be toast in the event of either an A350 or A330neo order. I think an A350 order could make sense but would be very puzzled by an A330neo order... but that's the rumor.

I agree with many others that determining whether Airbus or EK initiated this whole discussion would be very illuminating.


I agree they need the 777X. For 777 replacement.
But EK still has roughly 50 A380s on order that have been firmed. Those can replace the oldest A380s while the rest of the fleet still has plenty of life left in them. If the A380 line is ended, EK could keep their current fleet in service well past their normal 12 year replacement cycle.
The A380 could easily be in service after the A330N and 777X lines end if they do not get much more orders.
IF* EK swap the A380 orders for A350s and the (A380) line ends, I see more A350 orders in the future rather than 777X.

For some reason, posters here think that if the line ends, EK will park all the A380s and begin a replacement cycle.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:55 pm

Slug71 wrote:

I agree they need the 777X. For 777 replacement.
But EK still has roughly 50 A380s on order that have been firmed. Those can replace the oldest A380s while the rest of the fleet still has plenty of life left in them. If the A380 line is ended, EK could keep their current fleet in service well past their normal 12 year replacement cycle.
The A380 could easily be in service after the A330N and 777X lines end if they do not get much more orders.
IF* EK swap the A380 orders for A350s and the (A380) line ends, I see more A350 orders in the future rather than 777X.

For some reason, posters here think that if the line ends, EK will park all the A380s and begin a replacement cycle.


If EK does work out a 350's for 380's deal with Airbus, I strongly suspect that the bulk of the rest of EK's orders will be included in that deal, and the 380 line will be shuttered sooner rather than later.

As I see it, EK has more than enough 380's right now, and for Airbus...the sooner this happens, the better.
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:55 pm

As intoned earlier, the A380's are firm, but does Airbus want to sink the resources into building them? If they are loss making, why? Free up engineering sources and sell some other profitable frames by dropping that and offering other lift. Maybe EK still wants the 380's (or pretends to), in which case the have pricing leverage over AB. As others have said, 778 and 78J are more similar to the A/B alternatives than the 779, so they may go. EK cancelled the A35K rather rudely, to go 777X(9 mostly), so doubt they would change back. 78J, that one seemed to go down to the wire. A big reduction in CAPEX, might shift that the other way.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:59 pm

I’m not being a fanboy, but I see this as a win for Boeing because If they decide to ditch the A380, EK will fully commit to the 777x program and maybe push Boeing for 777-10 as a A380 replacement when their young fleet of A380 needs to be replace in the future. I can’t imagine EK replacing their A380 with A350. The 777x is the closest aircraft in terms of capacity and performance to the A380. I don’t think Boeing will have a hard time selling those Emirates 787 (never firm) to other airline anyways.

In my opinion, if EK decides to cancel part of their A380 order, I would not be surprised if they order a350/A330neo instead of 787 and top up order for 777x.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:59 pm

I doubt very much the A380 order in question is the latest one for 20+16, as it has always been said that it was conditional on RR improving the engines, which RR has definitely said they are not going to do. I do not believe that STC would commit EK to any penalties before this was resolved to his satisfaction, and now it is most definitely resolved to his dissatisfaction. So my theory, backed up by the statement in the article that Enders wants to resolve the A380 situation before he leaves, is that Airbus is talking to EK about Airbus giving EK some other planes instead of some of the 50 A380s that are not yet delivered. If that is the case then EK has all the cards. They can tell Airbus to stuff it, and even insist on penalties from Airbus for any firm orders that they do not deliver. They certainly can insist that Airbus refund every dime EK gave them for all undelivered planes. This sounds like a more likely situation than EK trying to back out of any deal. If I am right then all the talk of A350s and A330neos is Airbus trying to save face. So it comes down to who decided to open the discussions. If it was Airbus, then all the talk of Boeing orders being in jeopardy is wishful thinking. EK decided that those planes best suited their needs, and Airbus has no models that do what they do. And if it is Airbus who started the talks, they have no leverage at all.
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:07 pm

seabosdca wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
No they dont need more 777X. If the A350 is ordered, the 777X order will likely be at least cut. If the A330N is ordered, the 787 MoU will be cancelled/expire. The A380s that are in service and still coming (firmed orders) are not going anywhere soon.
EK has too many 777X on order.


Disagree. EK needs the 777X no matter what else it does. If A380 is canceled, 777-9 will replace some of the earliest A380s, and not one-for-one -- to avoid major capacity shrinkage, EK will need to add 3-4 777X for every 2-3 A380 replaced. It will also be needed for any and all 77W routes where passenger traffic is growing. And it's a firm order that will require either penalties or moving to another Boeing product to cancel. Even with an A350 order, I expect the 777X order to remain, and possibly to grow a bit. But with the latest rumor that EK is talking to Airbus about A330neos rather than A350s, the 777X is even more secure.

On the other hand, the 787 order, never firmed, may well be toast in the event of either an A350 or A330neo order. I think an A350 order could make sense but would be very puzzled by an A330neo order... but that's the rumor.

I agree with many others that determining whether Airbus or EK initiated this whole discussion would be very illuminating.

Maybe capacity shrinkage isn't the worst idea for ek
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:13 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
If EK does work out a 350's for 380's deal with Airbus, I strongly suspect that the bulk of the rest of EK's orders will be included in that deal, and the 380 line will be shuttered sooner rather than later.


:checkmark:

The result would be that the early A380s (and, mostly, I'm talking about the very earliest ones with custom wiring that are more maintenance-intensive than the series builds) would be retiring right around the time that 777-9s are showing up in volume. Later A380s might stay much longer.

The face-saving deal for all parties would be this:

1) 787 LoI cancelled (this is probably also the go sign for other operators to ask Boeing for better 787-10 pricing than it has provided to date)
2) A380 line shuts down after building ~15 more frames
3) ~40 of the remaining A380 orders converted into ~60 A350, likely a mix of -900 and -1000, delivered at times convenient for Airbus (which would likely be very soon for the first tranche of -1000s and after a few years for the rest)
4) 777X order reconfirmed, with ~25 additional orders for late delivery
5) 777-9 frames replace the very earliest A380s; others stay in service beyond typical EK lifespan
6) At some point down the line the 777-10X is launched and at least 40 777X orders converted to it
Last edited by seabosdca on Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:13 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
Indeed. Willy is just making noise. For the 380 program to keep limping along, it's EK or nothing. For EK...it's fix the T900 or nothing and since RR is done with T900 PIP's...it's most likely the end of the 380 program in the near future.

Even if BA was serious, there is no way they would order enough of them to keep the line open if/when EK drops out. I think WW was pulling a bit of a MOL move by issuing a 'fake news' press release to get some free headlines on a slow news day.


Actually, on reflection, I think WW has an intent apart from trying to talk Airbus down on the prices for new frames. Instead, I believe he's sending a signal to the lessors as more and more of the worldwide fleet (and particularly non-wiring-challenged examples) start to come off lease: BA/IAG is willing to talk, but they're going to drive a hard bargain on price.

Revelation wrote:
I think the gain to RR is financial. I think the kind of "resources" it was dedicating to A380 was writing checks to make up for fuel burn and time on wing issues. I'm not sure how much of a boost they'll get by not having to write those checks.


If EK ends up not taking most of the balance of their order, that puts RR on the hook for less in the way of future penalty payments, I suppose. If there's a conversion to A350, RR's lifetime margins on the Trent XWBs are probably going to be better than on the T900s.

Slug71 wrote:
For some reason, posters here think that if the line ends, EK will park all the A380s and begin a replacement cycle.


Yeah I don't get this line of thinking, either. If the A380 continues to meet EK's needs with respect to capacity and efficiency, I don't see why they couldn't still be flying in 2050 or even later, apart from a lack of manufacturer support or parts availability. They might even be able to get more advantageous lease or ownership costs as the sole large customer in the market for used A380s. The real losers with the closure of the A380 line would be lessors.

Unless they decide to shrink the business, EK will continue to need a large fleet of A380s until the DWC project moves forward enough to allow the airline to not be constrained by an airfield with only two runways.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:28 pm

ScottB wrote:
Yeah I don't get this line of thinking, either. If the A380 continues to meet EK's needs with respect to capacity and efficiency, I don't see why they couldn't still be flying in 2050 or even later, apart from a lack of manufacturer support or parts availability.


2050? You mean the aircraft, unchanged, would be flying 43 years after EIS and 30 years after the line ended?
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:30 pm

Jefford717 wrote:
I’m not being a fanboy, but I see this as a win for Boeing because If they decide to ditch the A380, EK will fully commit to the 777x program and maybe push Boeing for 777-10 as a A380 replacement when their young fleet of A380 needs to be replace in the future. I can’t imagine EK replacing their A380 with A350. The 777x is the closest aircraft in terms of capacity and performance to the A380. I don’t think Boeing will have a hard time selling those Emirates 787 (never firm) to other airline anyways.

In my opinion, if EK decides to cancel part of their A380 order, I would not be surprised if they order a350/A330neo instead of 787 and top up order for 777x.


The 777X is really no different than the 777 in terms of capacity. They share the same MTOW and the 777X has a LOWER exit limit than the 777 and also carries a higher OEW.
Given the current order status of the 777X, a 777-10 is unlikely at this time.

SEPilot wrote:
I doubt very much the A380 order in question is the latest one for 20+16, as it has always been said that it was conditional on RR improving the engines, which RR has definitely said they are not going to do. I do not believe that STC would commit EK to any penalties before this was resolved to his satisfaction, and now it is most definitely resolved to his dissatisfaction. So my theory, backed up by the statement in the article that Enders wants to resolve the A380 situation before he leaves, is that Airbus is talking to EK about Airbus giving EK some other planes instead of some of the 50 A380s that are not yet delivered. If that is the case then EK has all the cards. They can tell Airbus to stuff it, and even insist on penalties from Airbus for any firm orders that they do not deliver. They certainly can insist that Airbus refund every dime EK gave them for all undelivered planes. This sounds like a more likely situation than EK trying to back out of any deal. If I am right then all the talk of A350s and A330neos is Airbus trying to save face. So it comes down to who decided to open the discussions. If it was Airbus, then all the talk of Boeing orders being in jeopardy is wishful thinking. EK decided that those planes best suited their needs, and Airbus has no models that do what they do. And if it is Airbus who started the talks, they have no leverage at all.


A lot of parts for those 50 A380s are probably already in the manufacturing process. Theres a whole supply chain that would be impacted by such a decision. Not just Airbus.
EK is being compensated through penalties by RR on those 50 and the current in-service RR frames. So it's no loss to EK.
The only thing I could reasonably see changed on the next 50 frames would be the engines if Airbus and RR did decide to certify the T7000.

Antarius wrote:
ScottB wrote:
Yeah I don't get this line of thinking, either. If the A380 continues to meet EK's needs with respect to capacity and efficiency, I don't see why they couldn't still be flying in 2050 or even later, apart from a lack of manufacturer support or parts availability.


2050? You mean the aircraft, unchanged, would be flying 43 years after EIS and 30 years after the line ended?


Why not? The ex MH CEO has stated the build quality of the A380 should be good for a 50 year service life.
Unlikely it will happen, but they can go MUCH longer than 12 years.
Last edited by Slug71 on Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:38 pm

It all depends on which planes financiers/lessors like to own, gone are the days they will finance anything STC wants.

I am guessing any A380 which is not in the pipeline will be canceled.
EK has almost twice as many A380s it needs. That is bad news for 777X.
If 777X is A380 replacement, it will have the same 6/yr run rate, not viable.
So far, no lessor showed interest in 777X, so who will SLB EK's 777X frames?

My observation with high-volume WB orders is rapidly shrinking market value.
On a 150 bulk order, $130M for 77W looks good at the beginning, but it may be just worth just $80M-$100M for last 20 frames. Troublesome trying to SLB flip.

Rant summary
BCA should see the writing on the wall and cut its losses with the 777X program. Shouldn't celebrate A380 demise as a good sign.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:40 pm

Slug71 wrote:
The 777X is really no different than the 777 in terms of capacity. They share the same MTOW and the 777X has a LOWER exit limit than the 777 and also carries a higher OEW.
Given the current order status of the 777X, a 777-10 is unlikely at this time.


EK is not near the exit limit in its 777 configurations. EK's 777-9 is likely to carry ~30 more passengers than its 77W. If a 777-10X simple stretch were launched, which would in all likelihood require another order of 777X from EK, that would most likely add another ~30.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:43 pm

I'd say not till 2050 because the A350, 777, 787 will continue to undergo efficiency improvements and any future models from A and B will only be even more frugal. The 380 would soldier on as is and the cost difference between operating it versus one of the twins will only widen. So till 2035ish sounds feasible.
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:54 pm

seabosdca wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
The 777X is really no different than the 777 in terms of capacity. They share the same MTOW and the 777X has a LOWER exit limit than the 777 and also carries a higher OEW.
Given the current order status of the 777X, a 777-10 is unlikely at this time.


EK is not near the exit limit in its 777 configurations. EK's 777-9 is likely to carry ~30 more passengers than its 77W. If a 777-10X simple stretch were launched, which would in all likelihood require another order of 777X from EK, that would most likely add another ~30.


Exactly why the 787-10 (and A350) could take a number of the 777 routes and fits great for seasonal rotation. Which frees up 777 for A380 routes for rotation. And added frequency.
Hence why I say there is less need for more 777Xs.
Last edited by Slug71 on Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:54 pm

seabosdca wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
The 777X is really no different than the 777 in terms of capacity. They share the same MTOW and the 777X has a LOWER exit limit than the 777 and also carries a higher OEW.
Given the current order status of the 777X, a 777-10 is unlikely at this time.


EK is not near the exit limit in its 777 configurations. EK's 777-9 is likely to carry ~30 more passengers than its 77W. If a 777-10X simple stretch were launched, which would in all likelihood require another order of 777X from EK, that would most likely add another ~30.


Agreed. Exit limit of the 777-300 is 550 and exit limit for 777-9 is 475. EKs 77w seating ranges from 360-428, hence if we use similar configuration for 777-9 that would about add 30-40 passengers for the 10 feet stretch in fuselage. If capacity is needed for 777-10, Boeing can also revert to the 77W door configuration.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:15 am

Antarius wrote:
2050? You mean the aircraft, unchanged, would be flying 43 years after EIS and 30 years after the line ended?


Absolutely. 747-400s from the 1990-1992 range are still operating for first-tier global carriers (KL, BA, OZ), and I strongly doubt there are any issues with build quality which would lead to a shorter service life than the 747. Should EK continue to need the capacity for slot-restricted airports (i.e. LHR) or bilateral-restricted markets, or if DXB runway capacity proves to be an issue, the A380 may continue to meet their needs more effectively than newer options.

The A380 remains a very efficient people-mover; the challenge is the capacity risk posed by the large number of seats which must be filled at acceptable yields versus smaller aircraft.

Slug71 wrote:
A lot of parts for those 50 A380s are probably already in the manufacturing process. Theres a whole supply chain that would be impacted by such a decision. Not just Airbus.


The supply chain probably extends out about two years, and the reduced production rate plans have been in place for long enough for suppliers to have adjusted. I think at most about a dozen EK deliveries have any work in progress by Airbus or its suppliers. Whether there are any contractual guarantees from Airbus to its suppliers regarding further deliveries is another question.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:22 am

ScottB wrote:
Antarius wrote:
2050? You mean the aircraft, unchanged, would be flying 43 years after EIS and 30 years after the line ended?


Absolutely. 747-400s from the 1990-1992 range are still operating for first-tier global carriers (KL, BA, OZ), and I strongly doubt there are any issues with build quality which would lead to a shorter service life than the 747. Should EK continue to need the capacity for slot-restricted airports (i.e. LHR) or bilateral-restricted markets, or if DXB runway capacity proves to be an issue, the A380 may continue to meet their needs more effectively than newer options.

The A380 remains a very efficient people-mover; the challenge is the capacity risk posed by the large number of seats which must be filled at acceptable yields versus smaller aircraft.


I'm not arguing that it couldn't be done. Heck, Iran has managed to keep even older 747s flying. I'm saying that the current batch of aircraft have rendered the a380 relatively obsolete. The 777X after a few PIPs will ensure it.

The fact that EK has an MoU for 787s and may be looking at the a339 and a350 shows that the days of shoving the largest object at a destination are over. EK had a LF of 78% last year - the 777X and a35K handle 78% of the a380 capacity (or close) far more efficiently.
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:27 am

Jefford717 wrote:
Agreed. Exit limit of the 777-300 is 550 and exit limit for 777-9 is 475. EKs 77w seating ranges from 360-428, hence if we use similar configuration for 777-9 that would about add 30-40 passengers for the 10 feet stretch in fuselage. If capacity is needed for 777-10, Boeing can also revert to the 77W door configuration.


I'd expect a 777-10X to have 5 doors per side (whether they would all be Type Is as on the 77W, I don't know). Given its likely lower range, the 777-10X would be more likely to fly shorter, higher-density routes. If configured similarly to EK's current high-density 77W, it would have somewhere between 475 and 500 seats—exceeding the 777-9's exit limit.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:02 am

strfyr51 wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
Even Emirates realized they need fuel efficient planes and also need planes that can land at smaller airports. With the 787 and 350s, they could have more point to point routes vs the a380 hub and spoke model. Focus on medium size airports that dont have such a high demand.

But this is definitely the kiss of death for the A380 .... if this goes through.

Emirates might want to fly to the USA to airports that wouldn't pour new runways nor Taxiways, Nor modify any gates just for the A380. Which was a stupid Idea on it's face.


Right now, Emirates goes to mostly all the major / big US airports ...... if they target medium size US airports. The medium size airports will NOT build a gate for an 380 or runways for it. Financially, it makes no sense.

Hence, why I mentioned the 787s or 350s. Those planes can easily last at those medium size airports.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:16 am

seabosdca wrote:
I'd expect a 777-10X to have 5 doors per side (whether they would all be Type Is as on the 77W, I don't know). Given its likely lower range, the 777-10X would be more likely to fly shorter, higher-density routes. If configured similarly to EK's current high-density 77W, it would have somewhere between 475 and 500 seats—exceeding the 777-9's exit limit.


Boeing deleted the fifth Type I door because nobody uses it and it just takes up floorspace and adds around 1000kg of weight.

EK have stated their two-class 777-9 configuration will be 440, compared to the 427 on the 777-300ER. So they will probably just have the four Type I doors and not bother with the fifth Type C.

The 777-9 Exit Limit is 495 when configured with four Type A and one Type C door in an A-A-A-C-A configuration. If for some reason Boeing does stretch the 777X to 80m (which IMO is what the 777-9 should have been), I do not see them moving behind this maximum Exit Configuration.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:17 am

Where will EK find all the flight crews to fly the extra planes it will need to maintain capacity replacing the 380s with 350s? They are already having a difficult time hireing and retaining pilots.

My armchair view of things is that the 350 and 787 would make sense for EK. Having the 777-9, 350-10 and 787-10 would offer much better flexibility in matching the aircraft with fluctuating demand on a given route.

Maybe Boeing can convince them to take the 747-8! (leave me alone, it was a joke!)

At any rate, the thought of EK giving up on the A380 seems shocking to me!
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:36 am

Antarius wrote:
I'm not arguing that it couldn't be done. Heck, Iran has managed to keep even older 747s flying. I'm saying that the current batch of aircraft have rendered the a380 relatively obsolete. The 777X after a few PIPs will ensure it.


The same could be said about the 747-400 vs. the 777-300ER in spades. That's why I mentioned the first-tier carriers which still operate the 744: If they still have a viable place in the fleet, they'll continue to fly. But again, it's all about whether or not EK will continue to need the capacity due to sheer demand in certain markets and slot/bilateral limitations; the 777-9X, while very efficient, won't carry quite the same volume of passengers. That niche almost certainly won't be 100+ frames, but I wouldn't discount the possibility of a dozen or two still being useful.

My point wasn't that I definitely think EK will operate A380s in 2050; it's just that I don't see any technical reasons why not, and if they're still the largest passenger airliners in operation, they might still be useful to EK as mass people movers.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:42 am

JAAlbert wrote:
Maybe Boeing can convince them to take the 747-8! (leave me alone, it was a joke!)


Oh great, now you've probably gone and inspired 8 threads on the subject. :duck:

Stitch wrote:
The 777-9 Exit Limit is 495 when configured with four Type A and one Type C door in an A-A-A-C-A configuration. If for some reason Boeing does stretch the 777X to 80m (which IMO is what the 777-9 should have been), I do not see them moving behind this maximum Exit Configuration.


I was thinking it was 475; thanks for the correction. I agree that any hypothetical EK 777-10X isn't likely to go beyond 495, especially if doing so would require a heavier exit configuration.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:55 am

I thought the MLG on the 779 was maxed out? Any hypothetical 77J would require a whole bunch of redesign. Simple stretch not possible?
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:57 am

ClipperYankee wrote:
I'd say not till 2050 because the A350, 777, 787 will continue to undergo efficiency improvements and any future models from A and B will only be even more frugal. The 380 would soldier on as is and the cost difference between operating it versus one of the twins will only widen. So till 2035ish sounds feasible.

I enjoyed ScottB's post. I agreed with everything but the 2050, but let me do details on what your 2035 is a good estimate in my opinion:
1. Evonomy of scale. All airframes that had long lives had enough opperating to generate great spare parts revenue (even if by relation to prior frames such as the MD-90). Trust me on airlines are unwilling to pay business jet economics ,(e.g. , a BR700 overhaul is twice as often as a CFM-56 and costs about 50% more or 3X per takeoff).
2. Continued improvements. New aircraft such as the A350, 779, or 787 are more software than hardware. New code reduces maintenance costs.
3. Four engines is four overhauls, weight, and drag. Since both engines have poor economy of scale, they will be the next V2500-D5 (shops abandon certificates at the first hint of a volume drop). You can forget about CMC PIPs for low volume engines.
4. Fuel burn per passenger. Never outstanding, the A35K and 779 set the new bar. As PIPs happen, the in production frames pull ahead (as already noted).

I see EK extending leases. But I doubt EK will fly the type past 2035. This isn't the 747 where a large cargo market is keeping all the wear parts in production. So do not expect anyone besides BA and EK to find a quantity of used examples of interest.

I'm sad. I've posted here for years of the potential of a stretch. But if I'm rational, it is obvious the resources the A380 consumed hobbled Airbus. In fact, prior to launch I was working proposals for a very 787 like (but aluminum body and wing) aircraft for Airbus...

I'm going to be laughing hard if EK buys A350s during round 3. I'll admit I'd cry if the 787 order isn't firmed. I think they are the 787-10 poster child; but I could see an A350/787-10 split. That might set the internet on fire!

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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:59 am

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
I thought the MLG on the 779 was maxed out? Any hypothetical 77J would require a whole bunch of redesign. Simple stretch not possible?


That's what I thought too. Part of the reason why the MTOW wasn't increased.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:01 am

Looks like where there is smoke...

EK is considering buying 20 more 779, but cancelling the the 787 order:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.bloomber ... et-shakeup

Oh wow. Plausible... But wow...

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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:04 am

To what extent is EK willing to ignore the economics of the 78J and "fit" for its regional network in favor for the less than ideal option: A359/K?
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:04 am

Good for everyone, the 787 is healthy and wont be in trouble if it loses EK. This gives the 777X a boost and solves the A388 issue by replacing them with A350s.
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FA9295
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:04 am

lightsaber wrote:
Looks like where there is smoke...

EK is considering buying 20 more 779, but cancelling the the 787 order:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.bloomber ... et-shakeup

Oh wow. Plausible... But wow...

Lightsaber

Heh, no surprise here. The 787 didn't necessarily seem like a good fit for EK, IMO. I was hoping that they could open up some thinner routes with the 787. Oh well. :?
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:09 am

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
To what extent is EK willing to ignore the economics of the 78J and "fit" for its regional network in favor for the less than ideal option: A359/K?

And you call others "Airbus fanbois"... Hilarious.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:11 am

I reckon many of the 380's will be converted to 600+ passenger, two class mega haulers, which drops their CASM and is the only game in town in you want to haul a lot of people all at once. Maybe they'll try out a freight conversion on a few of them.

However they put them to use, and regardless of when the line is shut down...EK is going to be flying 380's for a long time to come.

lightsaber wrote:
Looks like where there is smoke...

EK is considering buying 20 more 779, but cancelling the the 787 order:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.bloomber ... et-shakeup

Oh wow. Plausible... But wow...

Lightsaber


Maybe it's smoke and mirrors but it's looking more and more like they may be aiming at a 380, 350, 777 fleet.
Last edited by JoeCanuck on Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
What the...?
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:12 am

lightsaber wrote:
Looks like where there is smoke...

EK is considering buying 20 more 779, but cancelling the the 787 order:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.bloomber ... et-shakeup

Oh wow. Plausible... But wow...

Lightsaber


How many 78Js in the MOU? 25? 20 more 77X has greater face value I suppose. More money for Boeing?
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:24 am

lightsaber wrote:
Looks like where there is smoke...

EK is considering buying 20 more 779, but cancelling the the 787 order:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.bloomber ... et-shakeup

Oh wow. Plausible... But wow...

Lightsaber

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... et-shakeup (same story, more direct link) says:

Emirates is considering at least 20 of the 777X planes while weighing the cancellation of an existing deal for 40 Boeing 787 Dreamliners, said the people, who asked not to be named as the discussions are private.

I have to say this has been one of the most tumultuous set of events I've seen since I've been watching the aviation industry. The death of the A380 is not even getting a rise out of people as the 777Xs, A350s and A330neos flash in front of our eyes.

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
How many 78Js in the MOU? 25? 20 more 77X has greater face value I suppose. More money for Boeing?

As per my post, it's 40 78Js. I think it's pretty clear Boeing would rather get firm commitments for the 77Xs. The 77X is in the early ramp up phase. A big bag of orders would give it undeniable staying power. The 78Js weren't firm and could easily find buyers.
Last edited by Revelation on Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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smartplane
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:32 am

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Looks like where there is smoke...

EK is considering buying 20 more 779, but cancelling the the 787 order:
https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.bloomber ... et-shakeup

Oh wow. Plausible... But wow...

Lightsaber


How many 78Js in the MOU? 25? 20 more 77X has greater face value I suppose. More money for Boeing?

But significantly less profit per frame and in total if X replaces J.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:45 am

smartplane wrote:
But significantly less profit per frame and in total if X replaces J.

But as you have reminded us several times over the last few months, the 78Js were never firm so that profit was also never firm.

And as you also remind us A and B and GE and RR all won't easily agree to such loose agreements these days.

If Boeing + GE walks away with firm 77X orders rather than un-firm (and in the case of GE, contested) orders, I think they'll consider it a win.

And of course if Airbus + RR can get firm orders for A350s they will consider that a win, even if it means burying the A380 dream once and for all and dealing with the balloon payments needed to wrap up RLA that has not been paid and taking the hit for winding down the infrastructure (anyone want to buy a barge?).,

And if EK ends up ordering A330neos, many people's heads will explode.

In the end, as TFA says:

With the reshuffled agreements, Emirates President Tim Clark would split both pain and rewards between the rival planemakers. The juggling act is emerging as one of the preferred options for Dubai-based Emirates as it looks to break a deadlock with Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc over terms to supply engines for the airline’s most recent A380 deal, the people said.

Seems that STC is being told he needs to do like Solomon and split the baby.
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:25 am

Don't rule out a shock development, like an Airbus / RR / EK / leasing company joint venture to develop the A380 NEO with T7000's for new orders and retrofit.

Breakdown in these discussions occurred just before Paris, and likely faltered over an EK requirement Airbus / RR meet some / all of the design and certification costs of replacing the GP7200 with the T7000.

A380 is in a holding pattern (unless Airbus take pre-emptive action - RR already has), until Boeing is able and willing to put 777X performance guarantees on the table, backed with meaningful penalties (the Airbus / RR compensation package will have been an eye opener to Boeing and GE).

If Airbus acquires RR commercial, the engine decision may receive a more a sympathetic hearing, or the opposite, but with a commitment to another A350 model iteration.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:28 am

Airbus leadership sees their stock price rising at the news of A380 closure. They are not deaf to what the market is saying.
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Slug71
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:39 am

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Airbus leadership sees their stock price rising at the news of A380 closure. They are not deaf to what the market is saying.


Except that is not true. Go look at the actual stock.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:49 am

Revelation wrote:
I have to say this has been one of the most tumultuous set of events I've seen since I've been watching the aviation industry. The death of the A380 is not even getting a rise out of people as the 777Xs, A350s and A330neos flash in front of our eyes.


Tumultuous... Yes! Very much a soap opera.

1. Order A350 cancel.
2. Rebid... A350 vs. 787. Winner 787
(EY downsizes)
3. Cancel A388s and instead take A350s (A35Ks?) order more 779s while canceling 787-10s.

Wow... My head is spinning.

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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:52 am

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
I thought the MLG on the 779 was maxed out? Any hypothetical 77J would require a whole bunch of redesign. Simple stretch not possible?


Why not a simple stretch? It would be a trade of 30 more passengers for probably something like 2 hours of range. For an airline that flies a whole lot of A380s and 77Ws to places within 13 hours of its hub, that seems pretty reasonable.

smartplane wrote:
But significantly less profit per frame and in total if X replaces J.


Are you sure, especially per plane? Neither one has been getting discounted too much, so far (although now that Boeing doesn't need to sell many more 77W/77F to fill slots during the production transition, I suppose that may change for the 77X).

smartplane wrote:
Don't rule out a shock development, like an Airbus / RR / EK / leasing company joint venture to develop the A380 NEO with T7000's for new orders and retrofit.


I see this as a reasonable possibility only if Airbus and/or EK is categorically unwilling to substitute A350s for A380s. Otherwise I'd think it would be in RR's interest just to get paid for some Trent XWBs, take the money, and run, rather than taking on a costly and risky venture.
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Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos