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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:04 am

Each A and B have sales TEAMS just devoted to EK. You know that none of them are getting any sleep. Probably haven't been for weeks.
© 2019. All statements are my own. The use of my statements, including by journalists, YouTube vloggers like "DJ's Aviation", etc. without my written consent is strictly prohibited.
 
JAAlbert
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:06 am

seabosdca wrote:
JAAlbert wrote:
Maybe Boeing can convince them to take the 747-8! (leave me alone, it was a joke!)


Oh great, now you've probably gone and inspired 8 threads on the subject. :duck:


Hah! I'll be immortalized in the A.net Hall of Viral Threads among such legendary threads as:

"Should Boeing Re-start the 757 production line?"
"The A320 is Superior to the 737 because its cabin is 7 inches wider"
"Boeing is superior to Airbus and always will be even if the Boeing cockpits still have yokes because its Boeing"
"Why do all the female flight attendants with the US carriers look, dress and behave like long haul truck drivers?"

Personally, if I ran an airline and had billions - I mean trillions - I'd order a bunch of 747-8s. No other modern airplane has as many cozy, exclusive cabin sections! It's a fabulous aircraft -- economics notwithstanding -- and we will rue the day when it too dies.

Okay, back to the topic at hand -- I suppose at some point the 380 program would come to an end, even if it were profitable. Still, I didn't think I'd see it in my lifetime. I've never flown on a 380 (I live in San Diego people) but it makes me sad thinking that this amazing plane may be terminally ill.

And my last thought, although the 777-300 may be the true heart of EK's operations, the airline built its reputation as an uber-exclusive airline on the 380 -- showers, cocktail bars, mini bars in the suites, etc. How will EK distinguish itself from the other airlines without the 380?? Does it make sense to fit a cocktail bar on a 350 or 777-9??
 
JoeCanuck
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:11 am

lightsaber wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I have to say this has been one of the most tumultuous set of events I've seen since I've been watching the aviation industry. The death of the A380 is not even getting a rise out of people as the 777Xs, A350s and A330neos flash in front of our eyes.


Tumultuous... Yes! Very much a soap opera.

1. Order A350 cancel.
2. Rebid... A350 vs. 787. Winner 787
(EY downsizes)
3. Cancel A388s and instead take A350s (A35Ks?) order more 779s while canceling 787-10s.

Wow... My head is spinning.

Lightsaber


It's definitely a tela novela. Is the 350 the archetypal evil twin back from the dead...?
What the...?
 
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flee
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:29 am

I wonder what those people who start weekly A380 threads will do when it is finally dead?
 
Dave05
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:45 am

If this come to realization this is a win win situation for all parties. EK future will be the A350 for medium haul and opening up ulh routes. Mature ULH routes will be serviced by 777. EK will still have the backing of two major manufacturers. Boeing will still have a big win, if airbus really closes the A380 program. As Boeing will still be producing B747-8 freighter, if in the near future there is a shift in market demand for ULA the manufacturing floor for 747-8 is still open....
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:17 am

So Jon Ostrich-Egg is wrong again.

EK has 50 777X options from its original 2013 order so I guess these are what could replace the 787 MoU/LoI if it really happened.

I wonder how bad things must be between EK and Airbus/Rolls....could EK do the unthinkable and cancel those a380s???!!!
 
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Slug71
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:28 am

lightsaber wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I have to say this has been one of the most tumultuous set of events I've seen since I've been watching the aviation industry. The death of the A380 is not even getting a rise out of people as the 777Xs, A350s and A330neos flash in front of our eyes.


Tumultuous... Yes! Very much a soap opera.

1. Order A350 cancel.
2. Rebid... A350 vs. 787. Winner 787
(EY downsizes)
3. Cancel A388s and instead take A350s (A35Ks?) order more 779s while canceling 787-10s.

Wow... My head is spinning.

Lightsaber


No kidding!

seabosdca wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
I thought the MLG on the 779 was maxed out? Any hypothetical 77J would require a whole bunch of redesign. Simple stretch not possible?


Why not a simple stretch? It would be a trade of 30 more passengers for probably something like 2 hours of range.


A stretch adds weight. If the MLG is at its limits....there is no benefit over a 777-9.

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Each A and B have sales TEAMS just devoted to EK. You know that none of them are getting any sleep. Probably haven't been for weeks.


No doubt.
 
Airlinerdude
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:49 am

Incidentally, this all comes around the timing of the first few 380s being scrapped. I wonder if EK is feeling pressure from the lessors/financers regarding future deliveries of the aircraft. I'd imagine that the lessors have significantly more power to demand more favourable terms in today's market than they had previously. It's a little hard for EK to demand its terms when the secondhand market has been dwindling, and when it's virtually certain that future retirements from EK's fleet will surely be scrapped. Either an encouragement for EK to keep existing aircraft for longer terms with lower lease rate, or a discouragement in ordering more 380s with higher lease rates might just change the cost equation for EK, and force them back to the negotiating table with Airbus.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:51 am

Slug71 wrote:
A stretch adds weight. If the MLG is at its limits....there is no benefit over a 777-9.


The point of a simple stretch, like the 787-10, is to trade less range for more payload. Maximum weights don't change, so the existing gear works fine. The 787-9 is limited by gear just like the 777-300ER and 777-9, but the 787-10 was still created. I think a 777-10X would be along the same lines.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:55 am

Stitch wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
I'd expect a 777-10X to have 5 doors per side (whether they would all be Type Is as on the 77W, I don't know). Given its likely lower range, the 777-10X would be more likely to fly shorter, higher-density routes. If configured similarly to EK's current high-density 77W, it would have somewhere between 475 and 500 seats—exceeding the 777-9's exit limit.


Boeing deleted the fifth Type I door because nobody uses it and it just takes up floorspace and adds around 1000kg of weight.

EK have stated their two-class 777-9 configuration will be 440, compared to the 427 on the 777-300ER. So they will probably just have the four Type I doors and not bother with the fifth Type C.

The 777-9 Exit Limit is 495 when configured with four Type A and one Type C door in an A-A-A-C-A configuration. If for some reason Boeing does stretch the 777X to 80m (which IMO is what the 777-9 should have been), I do not see them moving behind this maximum Exit Configuration.


the 779 is already 77 m, only a 3 m stretch before hitting the 80M box. Would need to move the rear pressure bulkhead back 2 or 3 meters to make a stretch worth it.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:02 am

Wouldnt a better way to hike capacity come by adding a fifth, full size door to raise exit limits, avoiding the need for a stretch??
 
sibibom
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:15 am

What an amazing developing story. Here is what I think.

1) Airbus - A380 has been dead for 5 years and its stopping A350 from reaching true potential. A350-2000 may be on the table now. And it will be a great mid-range hauler. Probably at the per seat cost of B787-10 for trips to Asia/Europe with more seats to sell. I will be surprised if A330 Neo is selected, but it will lend the project lots of credibility.

2) Boeing - More order for B777X will be welcomed, and B787 sells enough to not feel the hurt of the probable cancelation. However with the big Albatross off Airbus' back, B777X will get a more credible challenge. Not sure how that will play out.

3) EK - They are the biggest losers. Its become clear, EK has no plan or ideas whats in the future.\
a) A combo of B777X and A330neo sounds terrible for the future compared to A350/B787 combo.
b) DWC is still in limbo, they didn't need B787-10s, why did they order them? There are not decent slots at DXB, why were they planning to downgauge? Is the market that soft?
c) They proved to be worst at U-turn Al Baker, Yes UAE you outdid Qatar, congrats, but is that a good thing?
 
gloom
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:35 am

seabosdca wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
A stretch adds weight. If the MLG is at its limits....there is no benefit over a 777-9.


The point of a simple stretch, like the 787-10, is to trade less range for more payload. Maximum weights don't change,


It's true about weight you're probably think about - MTOW. You don't raise MTOW, sure. The problem you're facing here is if you raise MZFW (and for heavier frame and more payload you need to), you have to adjust MLW. For a stretch, you'd have a 3m longer fuselage, probably around +5t, and I assume you want extra 5t of load inside for extra pax/bags/pantry, not raising cargo capability. So, +10t MLW at least, which is not always easy thing if you designed gear for lighter version. Sure, not as difficult/expensive as raise of MTOW, still sometimes not an easy one, and there's a chance original MLG is no longer enough.

Not saying it's not justified, it's just more complex than just "new fuselage". And it could affect MLG, sure.

Of course, one can stay on the same MZFW and trade cargo/fuel for pax seats. That's cheapest and easiest, but also least capable.

Cheers, Adam
Last edited by gloom on Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:20 am

More 779s for EK sounds the right balance for fewer A380s.

But that would only translate to more 779 sales if they do not come from the Etihad order.
 
Geoff1947
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 8:30 am

JerseyFlyer wrote:
More 779s for EK sounds the right balance for fewer A380s.

But that would only translate to more 779 sales if they do not come from the Etihad order.


The 777X has many of the same problems as the A380, it is too big and not selling. You’d think new management at EK would want to stick to the mainstream 787 and A350.

Geoff
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 9:02 am

Geoff1947 wrote:
The 777X has many of the same problems as the A380, it is too big and not selling. You’d think new management at EK would want to stick to the mainstream 787 and A350.


There's not much room to add frequency at DXB (or, in some cases, the destination airports) at peak demand times. Substituting 787s and A350s for aging A380s and 777-300ERs would represent a substantial downgrade in capacity.

EK is unique because of the sheer volume of traffic flowing over its hub. It can actually make larger aircraft work.

My view continues to be that, for EK, the 777X order is the least risky one in their entire order book. It's a size of aircraft they will need no matter what else happens.
 
mig17
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 9:55 am

Why do so much people here think EK needs all the bird they have on order?
They have on order 150 777-X (115 -9 and 35-8). That is far enought if not too much to replace the oldest 77W, 77L and A380.
They also can ceep longer some "old" frames with is not realy the midle-estern way but would help them reach better profitability.
And they are also exploring thepossibility of smaller frames.

They also can go all 777-X and prove me wrong, but ...
727 AT, 737 UX/SK/TO/SS, 747 UT/AF/SQ/BA/SS, 767 UA, 777 AF, A300 IW/TG, A310 EK, A318/19/20/21 AF/U2/VY, A332/3 EK/QR/TX, A343 AF, A388 AF, E145/170/190 A5/WF, Q400 WF, ATR 72 A5/TX, CRJ100/700/1000 A5, C-150/172, PC-6.
 
panais
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:10 pm

What are the fleet requirements is Emirates is buying Etihad?
 
emiratesdriver
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 12:34 pm

I think a lot of the EK fanboys on here are beginning to realise that EK such as it is has finally realised that the fleet size of 100 or so 380s has never fit the market place as we know it. Let’s never forget that the 380 in EK service has never been about making money, that’s what the 777 does, the 380 was and is a vanity project of Dubai Inc to sell the brand. A fleet of about 40 would have been about right with the number of slot restricted and high demand destinations currently served, a mix of 777/787/350 would then make up the remaining bulk of the fleet which would mean that the airline would be significantly more profitable than it is now.
Moving forward as I’ve said previously, you can expect a gradual drawdown of 380 numbers post 2019, with newer deliveries replacing older frames.
Personally I don’t envisage this order coming to fruition as all parties appear to be seeking an exit, I’d prefer to see a substantial number of 350-900s online to keep the fleet balance correct and spread the risk.
Time and ego will tell.
 
WIederling
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:17 pm

flee wrote:
I wonder what those people who start weekly A380 threads will do when it is finally dead?


expect a resurgence of 757 threads.

Then, discussions on when which A380 frame will be scrapped have quite a lot of potential too.
Murphy is an optimist
 
VictorKilo
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 1:48 pm

Airlinerdude wrote:
Incidentally, this all comes around the timing of the first few 380s being scrapped. I wonder if EK is feeling pressure from the lessors/financers regarding future deliveries of the aircraft. I'd imagine that the lessors have significantly more power to demand more favourable terms in today's market than they had previously. It's a little hard for EK to demand its terms when the secondhand market has been dwindling, and when it's virtually certain that future retirements from EK's fleet will surely be scrapped. Either an encouragement for EK to keep existing aircraft for longer terms with lower lease rate, or a discouragement in ordering more 380s with higher lease rates might just change the cost equation for EK, and force them back to the negotiating table with Airbus.


Spot on.

If I am a leasing or finance company, for a 380 built today, I have to assume the following:

Whatever demand exists for off lease 380s will be fully met by the existing 380 fleet

Whatever demand exists for spare parts will be met by off lease 380s surplus to requirements for in tact frames

Since the 380 is not a part of a bigger family (318, 345, 736), there is limited commonality for parts with higher volume variants.

Due to the way the 380 floor is constructed there will be no P2F conversion demand

Therefore I have to assume that all I am getting on a lease return is scrap metal.

If I put that into my lease model, the lease payments are going to be very high, even if I am willing to assume the risk.

It is those payments that change the equation for EK and make them want to come to the bargaining table.
 
3AWM
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:02 pm

The Emirates business model is so dependent on the A380 I don't think it's a matter of just right-sizing frames and chasing higher yields. DXB can't accommodate more frequencies and swapping A380s for the 777X represents a major contraction. This might work on some routes but on others I would think they would really not want to give up the lift, LHR has 4 daily A380s.

Aside from that though;

Airbus probably need EK to re-order it's current fleet in order to dig themselves out of the hole with the A380, but they don't want want to spend a lot improving performance to catch up with the current generation of frames.

Emirates need A380s but are likely uncertain about the long term situation if the A380 isn't going to be modernised.

I can see lessors being uneasy about resale values given that recent examples have had difficulty finding a home, making financing likely more expensive going forward.

It makes no sense for Emirates to order loads of new frames that are not significantly improved on the ones in use only to see the 2nd hand ones picked up for pennies by the likes of IAG - much better to string out the use of these as long as possible.

In the longer term though EK are going to have to transition to a model that is less dependent on the A380, which means either a bigger hub or another hub. I guess it could be resolved by a move to DWC but a merger or at least increased co-operation with Etihad, who basically have the opposite problem capacity wise makes a lot of sense.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:36 pm

If the contraction improves the net result it makes sense. The A380 are more of a liability than an asset. With modern 787s and 777 airlines can now offer more direct connections without having to eat higher seat mile costs, which changes the traffic flow.
Last edited by seahawk on Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
3AWM
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:53 pm

seahawk wrote:
If the contraction improves the net result it makes sense. The A380 are more of a liability than an asset. With modern 787s and 777 airlines can not offer more direct connections without having to eat higher seat mile costs, which changes the traffic flow.


Agreed but personally I don't think a contraction on it's own cuts it as it's going to reduce seat sales elsewhere off the hub.

I also think the EK model to a certain extent depends on low yield - passengers willing to sit on the plane 2/3 hours longer for a slightly cheaper fare.

I think there is scope to mitigate that by offering more connections but again that requires more capacity for additional routes - which are already going to be required for additional frequencies on A380 routes swapped out.

- in addition the Emirate of Dubai - which is owned by the same people as the airline - will want to sustain the number of passengers transiting through the city as it helps the wider economy.
Last edited by 3AWM on Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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IslandRob
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:54 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
More 779s for EK sounds the right balance for fewer A380s.

But that would only translate to more 779 sales if they do not come from the Etihad order.


Same can be said of more A350 sales. -ir
If you wrote me off, I'd understand it
'Cause I've been on some other planet
So come pick me up, I've landed
 
ewt340
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:05 pm

lightsaber wrote:
To answer my own question from earlier,it looks as if EK hasn't finalized the final 36 (dispute with RR continues). Hattip Revelation for the link in 797 thread:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-airbu ... KKCN1PP2NH

If the A35K has lower fuel burn than promise and EY slots allow an amicable deal, it looks as if A380 production will end early. Bummer (as an enthusiast), but I calculate more profit per 779 flight than per A388 flight. It isn't people count, but profit margin or profit per flight.

So I can see A338, 779/778(very few), A35K, and 787-10.

Perhaps a few A359 and fewer 778?

Lightsaber


Would they switch B787 with B777X and goes with A350, A380 and B777X combo instead.
I'm sure Boeing would be happy to get more B777X orders.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:22 pm

Yes the 779 is a down gauge from the 380 but I would expect each has the same profitability per flight except for the rare cases where the 380 is sold out. If the planes are going out not full, the ticket price for the last seats filled will be at a huge discount. Change the route to a 779 where it is often full when it leaves, then grabbing the last seats on a plane are precious - EK would get a couple hundred bucks extra or more per seat, a lot more revenue.

Part of what EK may be going thru is the financing of the current A380s coming off the line. All of the lessors that have A380's in their portfolio are sweating bullets as the residual value has cratered.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:26 pm

ewt340 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
To answer my own question from earlier,it looks as if EK hasn't finalized the final 36 (dispute with RR continues). Hattip Revelation for the link in 797 thread:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-airbu ... KKCN1PP2NH

If the A35K has lower fuel burn than promise and EY slots allow an amicable deal, it looks as if A380 production will end early. Bummer (as an enthusiast), but I calculate more profit per 779 flight than per A388 flight. It isn't people count, but profit margin or profit per flight.

So I can see A338, 779/778(very few), A35K, and 787-10.

Perhaps a few A359 and fewer 778?

Lightsaber


Would they switch B787 with B777X and goes with A350, A380 and B777X combo instead.
I'm sure Boeing would be happy to get more B777X orders.


I do not think A350 + 777X is the best solution. Perfection would be 787 + 777X, but they will have to compensate Airbus in some ways, so I think A330NEOs will be it. And to be honest they operated the A330s in the past and it worked well for them.
 
3AWM
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:41 pm

It's not as simple as just cost per flight as most journeys involve 2 filghts.

Reducing the input from LHR and other destinations by 20% will have a knock on effect and the connecting flights will no longer acheive the same loads or yields.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:43 pm

smartplane wrote:
Don't rule out a shock development

Indeed. There are so many different factors at play (operational, political, financial, egotistical) the outcome could be almost anything.

sibibom wrote:
What an amazing developing story. Here is what I think.

1) Airbus - A380 has been dead for 5 years and its stopping A350 from reaching true potential. A350-2000 may be on the table now. And it will be a great mid-range hauler. Probably at the per seat cost of B787-10 for trips to Asia/Europe with more seats to sell. I will be surprised if A330 Neo is selected, but it will lend the project lots of credibility.

Yet shifting resources to A350 enhancements/extensions and eating the costs of shutting down A380 make less resources available for the various A321+/++/A322 proposals that get floated here quite often and make it more important to not disrupt the goose laying the golden eggs, the A320 production line.

sibibom wrote:
2) Boeing - More order for B777X will be welcomed, and B787 sells enough to not feel the hurt of the probable cancelation. However with the big Albatross off Airbus' back, B777X will get a more credible challenge. Not sure how that will play out.

It could be a boost for NMA/MOM/797. Why, you say? The lesson being learned from A380 and 747-8i extinction, and slow sales of 777x (certainly relative to 777 and possibly relative to 777x expectations) is that fragmentation is winning even more than thought, and you really want to have a strong play in the middle of the market. 787 is already the best of breed middle market long range hub buster solution so the next thing to invest in is 797. The resources are there since 777X is wrapping up. 77X is now more or less sunk cost. Spending more money on 77X in the short term is not going to change its fate. 77X development is almost done, the factories are built and provisioned, the first articles are soon to roll out. The engineers can roll on to 797. In fact that's what Boeing's CEO tells us the plan is, and Jon Ostrower reports is already happening.

sibibom wrote:
3) EK - They are the biggest losers. Its become clear, EK has no plan or ideas whats in the future.\
a) A combo of B777X and A330neo sounds terrible for the future compared to A350/B787 combo.
b) DWC is still in limbo, they didn't need B787-10s, why did they order them? There are not decent slots at DXB, why were they planning to downgauge? Is the market that soft?
c) They proved to be worst at U-turn Al Baker, Yes UAE you outdid Qatar, congrats, but is that a good thing?

The move that STC did by stiffing Airbus at Paris was worthy of good ol' U-Turn AAB.

JerseyFlyer wrote:
More 779s for EK sounds the right balance for fewer A380s.

But that would only translate to more 779 sales if they do not come from the Etihad order.

It's interesting that this angle keeps cropping up on a.net but never from Reuters, Bloomberg, Aviation Week, Flight Global, etc. That should tell us that there's not much to it. It's been said here that none of the Emirs are going to willingly combine their ventures with others and it's not hard to guess why.

3AWM wrote:
The Emirates business model is so dependent on the A380 I don't think it's a matter of just right-sizing frames and chasing higher yields. DXB can't accommodate more frequencies and swapping A380s for the 777X represents a major contraction. This might work on some routes but on others I would think they would really not want to give up the lift, LHR has 4 daily A380s.

The EK business model we knew depended on the A380 having equal or better seat-mile cost that the competitor, no hubs that could compete with it, a steady supply of pilots willing to uproot to their home country and accept its business and governmental practices, etc. Now the competition is flying better planes than EK, opening/expanding their hubs, using their influence to limit bilaterals, offering pilots good enough packages to keep them home and squeezing the rest of the crew via second tier contracts. It's a really different world out there. Besides, even in an ideal world, EK's business model was going to saturate independent of the DXB hub situation. There's only so many second tier cities that can generate enough profitable traffic to support A380s and 77Ws.

All in all we can see why STC pushed so hard for A380neo. Picture the difference right now if Airbus agreed to do A380neo right after A330neo. T900 deficiencies would not be causing the demise of the A380, instead STC would have happily signed the A380neo contract and would soon be getting TXWBs with 7% better SFC and a stream of future PIPs and none of the longevity issues seen on the T1000 and T900. Alternately, RR Advance could have come along in 2021 with 12% better SFC than T900/GP7200. All it needed was someone budging off their hard core negotiating position and committing some more R&D funding to get it to happen. And now, instead, it seems Enders is doing his best to shut down the A380 before he retires, which STC said was his fear all along.
Last edited by Revelation on Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:46 pm

seahawk wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
To answer my own question from earlier,it looks as if EK hasn't finalized the final 36 (dispute with RR continues). Hattip Revelation for the link in 797 thread:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-airbu ... KKCN1PP2NH

If the A35K has lower fuel burn than promise and EY slots allow an amicable deal, it looks as if A380 production will end early. Bummer (as an enthusiast), but I calculate more profit per 779 flight than per A388 flight. It isn't people count, but profit margin or profit per flight.

So I can see A338, 779/778(very few), A35K, and 787-10.

Perhaps a few A359 and fewer 778?

Lightsaber


Would they switch B787 with B777X and goes with A350, A380 and B777X combo instead.
I'm sure Boeing would be happy to get more B777X orders.


I do not think A350 + 777X is the best solution. Perfection would be 787 + 777X, but they will have to compensate Airbus in some ways, so I think A330NEOs will be it. And to be honest they operated the A330s in the past and it worked well for them.


I agree but rumors last night hint that the 78J MOU is jeopardy but Boeing will be compensated with more 77X orders. A will be compensated with A359/K orders. Still doubt the A330neo option.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:03 pm

Both A&B should tell STC, they are not Costco. Both should stop wasting $$Billions designing planes for ME3 and try to sell to others.

His business, he has numbers, pick the right plane and get on with it.

Sure there may not be just one customer with 150 order, but without ME3 there will be 15 airlines buying 10 each. Order book will be solid.
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:17 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
seahawk wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

Would they switch B787 with B777X and goes with A350, A380 and B777X combo instead.
I'm sure Boeing would be happy to get more B777X orders.


I do not think A350 + 777X is the best solution. Perfection would be 787 + 777X, but they will have to compensate Airbus in some ways, so I think A330NEOs will be it. And to be honest they operated the A330s in the past and it worked well for them.


I agree but rumors last night hint that the 78J MOU is jeopardy but Boeing will be compensated with more 77X orders. A will be compensated with A359/K orders. Still doubt the A330neo option.

Well, I guess it would be fantastic publicity for Airbus if EK would drop the 787-10 commitment and order the A330neo instead. Airbus tried something similar with AA, offering A338s as 767 replacement instead of further 787 orders. AA declined, and I think EK would be wise to do the same. I honestly believe EK could use the A359/A35K much better. Still too bad about the 787-10, I would be disappointed as I think the airplane would look great in EK colours, but that's just personal.

3AWM wrote:
It's not as simple as just cost per flight as most journeys involve 2 filghts.

Reducing the input from LHR and other destinations by 20% will have a knock on effect and the connecting flights will no longer acheive the same loads or yields.

As others have pointed out, it's not that EK will park their A380 fleet overnight. They will keep a sizeable A380 fleet for key destinations like LHR. The A380s can continue flying for at least 20 years, unless maintenance/spare parts become too expensive. But the Concorde could continue flying for decades after production ended, so not too much problems in that regard for the A380.

JerseyFlyer wrote:
More 779s for EK sounds the right balance for fewer A380s.

But that would only translate to more 779 sales if they do not come from the Etihad order.


Was thinking something similar... But if EY will cancel their A350/77X orders it will disappear from the books quietly, everyone will assure it won't be connected in any way to any EK order... probably these events will happen months apart. Too much possible loss of face.
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:27 pm

I’m struggling trying to picture EK’s future being 777X/A330neo. If it happens, nice boost to the neo program, but I’d think A350 would be the better long term platform of the two.

I was looking forward to seeing the 787 in their colors but it is what it is.
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:39 pm

Lol. Nothing is a done deal, folks. Until the planes are delivered (or not). So many of you acting like the fat lady has done sung.
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luckyone
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:40 pm

JAAlbert wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
JAAlbert wrote:
Maybe Boeing can convince them to take the 747-8! (leave me alone, it was a joke!)


Oh great, now you've probably gone and inspired 8 threads on the subject. :duck:


Hah! I'll be immortalized in the A.net Hall of Viral Threads among such legendary threads as:

"Should Boeing Re-start the 757 production line?"
"The A320 is Superior to the 737 because its cabin is 7 inches wider"
"Boeing is superior to Airbus and always will be even if the Boeing cockpits still have yokes because its Boeing"
"Why do all the female flight attendants with the US carriers look, dress and behave like long haul truck drivers?"

Personally, if I ran an airline and had billions - I mean trillions - I'd order a bunch of 747-8s. No other modern airplane has as many cozy, exclusive cabin sections! It's a fabulous aircraft -- economics notwithstanding -- and we will rue the day when it too dies.

Okay, back to the topic at hand -- I suppose at some point the 380 program would come to an end, even if it were profitable. Still, I didn't think I'd see it in my lifetime. I've never flown on a 380 (I live in San Diego people) but it makes me sad thinking that this amazing plane may be terminally ill.

And my last thought, although the 777-300 may be the true heart of EK's operations, the airline built its reputation as an uber-exclusive airline on the 380 -- showers, cocktail bars, mini bars in the suites, etc. How will EK distinguish itself from the other airlines without the 380?? Does it make sense to fit a cocktail bar on a 350 or 777-9??

You forgot, most importantly, to ask whether or not a NW DC-9 pick the pilots up from the boneyard...
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:58 pm

Loving reading all the theories on here, more permutations and combinations than the mega millions lottery numbers!

we dont know what we dont know, but I really, really hope the Whale is not ending production!

is there any chance whatsoever we could get a NEO, even the slimmest, slightest, smallest chance RR would come on board and AB with a new minimal cost upgrade?

i also want to win the lottery this weekend, so let me have my dream!
 
musman9853
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:01 pm

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
Loving reading all the theories on here, more permutations and combinations than the mega millions lottery numbers!

we dont know what we dont know, but I really, really hope the Whale is not ending production!

is there any chance whatsoever we could get a NEO, even the slimmest, slightest, smallest chance RR would come on board and AB with a new minimal cost upgrade?

i also want to win the lottery this weekend, so let me have my dream!


i think with all the potential outcomes of this, the least likely one is an a380neo.
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:13 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Lol. Nothing is a done deal, folks. Until the planes are delivered (or not). So many of you acting like the fat lady has done sung.

Indeed, so what actual facts do we have?

Airbus says it is discussing the A380 contract with EK ( ref: https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... rline.html )

EK should have signed a contract with RR for T900s to close the A380 20+16 deal months ago (STC said it would happen by end of Oct 2018) yet it has not.

That seems to be where the facts end and the rumors begin.

Yet the rumors come from at least two different major financial publications with actual editorial boards, so they're at least rumors of substance.

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
is there any chance whatsoever we could get a NEO, even the slimmest, slightest, smallest chance RR would come on board and AB with a new minimal cost upgrade?

We can't rule it out, but at the same time this is the first time we've ever seen a report in the media that Airbus wants to end the A380 sooner rather than later.

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
i also want to win the lottery this weekend, so let me have my dream!

We also can't rule that out, so make sure you buy some tickets! :biggrin:
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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par13del
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:33 pm

So do we expect a revamp of the hard product onboard their a/c if the number of A380's initially thought of is going to be lower?
Why do we assume that they will place the same type seats and spacing in their 777X as they have in the A380's?
Only a few A380's are in a high density configuration, so if they are going to be using more smaller a/c, perhaps they may do a more
detailed look at their products and eliminate some of the of "luxury items" to fit more pax?

Just a thought
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 5:48 pm

Geoff1947 wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
More 779s for EK sounds the right balance for fewer A380s.

But that would only translate to more 779 sales if they do not come from the Etihad order.


The 777X has many of the same problems as the A380, it is too big and not selling. You’d think new management at EK would want to stick to the mainstream 787 and A350.

Geoff


The 777-9 is I believe only a 2.9m stretch of the 777W. It is in an entirely different league than the A380. That it’s now the 2nd largest option out there doesn’t necessarily mean it’s “too big” - it just means it’ll have less demand than the A350/787.
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:09 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
Geoff1947 wrote:
The 777X has many of the same problems as the A380, it is too big and not selling. You’d think new management at EK would want to stick to the mainstream 787 and A350.

The 777-9 is I believe only a 2.9m stretch of the 777W. It is in an entirely different league than the A380. That it’s now the 2nd largest option out there doesn’t necessarily mean it’s “too big” - it just means it’ll have less demand than the A350/787.

Yep, the A380's cross section is akin to a 10-across 777 with an 8-across A330 bolted on as its upper deck. It's in a size class of its own.
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Airlinerdude
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:12 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
I agree but rumors last night hint that the 78J MOU is jeopardy but Boeing will be compensated with more 77X orders. A will be compensated with A359/K orders. Still doubt the A330neo option.


I actually see a potential 330neo order as holding some merit. Bear with me while I elaborate...

The original 350 order in 2007 was accompanied shortly thereafter with a LOI for 330-300s back in 2008, suggesting that a split order was considered to rightsize the fleet.

The 350 series was ordered as an immediate replacement for the 330/340 as well as a longer term replacement for the 777. The internal documents I was made privy to had initial deliveries starting in the 2017/18 financial year, around the timeframe that the bulk of 777 retirements were beginning. It was only after the firm commitment to the 777x that the 350 was cancelled.

That's why I'm under the impression that there's actually very little role for the 350 in EK's fleet. Instead, there's a gap in the capacity that the 787/330 offer which could easily be filled with a 330 order.
 
justloveplanes
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:25 pm

Geoff1947 wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
More 779s for EK sounds the right balance for fewer A380s.

But that would only translate to more 779 sales if they do not come from the Etihad order.


The 777X has many of the same problems as the A380, it is too big and not selling. You’d think new management at EK would want to stick to the mainstream 787 and A350.

Geoff


Its not too big for Emirates
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:28 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Both A&B should tell STC, they are not Costco. Both should stop wasting $$Billions designing planes for ME3 and try to sell to others.

His business, he has numbers, pick the right plane and get on with it.

Sure there may not be just one customer with 150 order, but without ME3 there will be 15 airlines buying 10 each. Order book will be solid.

Launch customers have a disproportionate impact on a design. But why the implication of design for the ME3?

The 779 has obvious features for LH and potential TPAC customers. Its range would be greater for EK. Although I speculate they had extreame influence on the 778 configuration.

The A359/A35K is not what EK wanted. Weight was added for range they did not want.

I can look at designs and point to the influencing customers.

A346 was Lufthansa. I worked ban engine proposal (that wasn't accepted) where we called Lufthansa's technical team for input. Airbus modified the A346 for LH's needs. Bummer it was so overweight....

A332 was for AF's needs. The ME3 had no influence on that design despite being buyers.

788 was heavily influenced by ANA & JAL.

789 heavily listened to BA and QF.

A359 was optimized for TPAC and Europe to Asia over EK's protests

A35K was optimized for the sane TPAC/Europe to Asia, again over EK's protests

This is why it is so ironic that EK is going back to the A350.

No vendor can ignore a customer who will buy 10% of all the product sold. In particular one with as excellent a credit history as EK.

Boeing and Airbus make good money of the ME3. Since the changes they demanded have been at a profit.. For example, on the 77W a MTOW increase and an engine PIP.

The issue for the A388 is that EK's requests were ignored. That brings us to the current issues. EK wanted a NEO. Instead RR over promised on the T900. Oops.

EY is in shambles.
QR cannot make a profit.
EK does well, but has a slot limited hub in an environment where ADD and IST are reducing yeild. So they are adapting.

EK is wise, they buy in big batches, so when Airbus and Boeing won't be as accommodating, they do not order. When Boeing or Airbus need an order, they do order. Long term orders of the type airframers need.

Lightsaber
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Noshow
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:37 pm

Not taking more A380s will dramatically change the business model of EK. A big question is where they want to go to? They have no slots and gates to waste so why to shrink the aircraft size?

Maybe this whole case is more about the changing Middle East situation and less about the A380 engine optimization?
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:51 pm

lightsaber wrote:
The A359/A35K is not what EK wanted. Weight was added for range they did not want.

It was for QR, based on the comments live-casted during the first flight.

lightsaber wrote:
The issue for the A388 is that EK's requests were ignored. That brings us to the current issues. EK wanted a NEO.
Lightsaber

Enders don't want to sink $2B for a customer who cannot make up their mind, who would blame him. I wish BCA management was equally smart with not sinking $$Billions into 777X,

lightsaber wrote:
Instead RR over promised on the T900. Oops.
Lightsaber

STC can take one for the motherland. After all, there is that London Gazette notification.

Both A&B enabled ME3 dump capacity on the world which caused a lot of disruption. Fortunately, competitors tightened their belts, fought back and survived. It is time for A&B place their priorities in right place.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 6:58 pm

musman9853 wrote:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
Loving reading all the theories on here, more permutations and combinations than the mega millions lottery numbers!

we dont know what we dont know, but I really, really hope the Whale is not ending production!

is there any chance whatsoever we could get a NEO, even the slimmest, slightest, smallest chance RR would come on board and AB with a new minimal cost upgrade?

i also want to win the lottery this weekend, so let me have my dream!


i think with all the potential outcomes of this, the least likely one is an a380neo.


I definitely wouldn't rule it out. EK would no doubt prefer a NEO. What I'm reading is, "if we don't get a NEO, we will explore other options". The story has changed so much that anything is possible. Everybody said that the latest order wouldn't happen after Airbus got snubbed at the press event. Yet it happened.
A month ago I heard (just hearsay that I didnt think anything of) that the GEnx-2B was being offered to EK.

I'm sure ALL options are on the table at this point. Just because we dont hear about it doesn't mean it isn't being discussed. Even the rumors we are hearing about I would take with a grain of salt until something happens.
Only key people at Airbus, RR, and EK would know anything of these discussions and they would be very confidential.
Jobs (and possibly lawsuits) would be in the line by leaking such information.

This looks more and more like a bit of hustling by EK.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:04 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
I thought the MLG on the 779 was maxed out? Any hypothetical 77J would require a whole bunch of redesign. Simple stretch not possible?

Slug71 wrote:
That's what I thought too. Part of the reason why the MTOW wasn't increased.


I believe the issue is more pavement loading from the tires than what the MLG can actually support. To address the higher ~20,000kg OEW, Boeing raised the MZFW by 17,0000kg. Since the 777-9 burns significantly less fuel than the 777-300ER, they could afford to do this.


JoeCanuck wrote:
I reckon many of the 380's will be converted to 600+ passenger, two class mega haulers, which drops their CASM and is the only game in town in you want to haul a lot of people all at once. Maybe they'll try out a freight conversion on a few of them.


The A380-800 upper deck uses CFRP floor beams so any freighter conversion would be very expensive.


JoeCanuck wrote:
However they put them to use, and regardless of when the line is shut down...EK is going to be flying 380's for a long time to come.


Agreed. We will see the earliest frames probably returned to lessors / retired, but I expect EK to extend the leases on lower-cycle frames and keep flying them until their heavy maintenance checks start to make them uneconomical to continue to operate. So they will draw down the fleet over time, but it will likely be over a period of over 20 years, rather than under.


smartplane wrote:
Don't rule out a shock development, like an Airbus / RR / EK / leasing company joint venture to develop the A380 NEO with T7000's for new orders and retrofit.


I don't see traditional lessors underwriting such an expense and the fundholder-lessors (Doric, Dr. Peters) don't have the finances to pay for such a program. And Airbus and RR are clearly loathe to spend the money on their own - especially just for EK (who would probably remain the strongest customer by a large margin for an A380neo).


smartplane wrote:
A380 is in a holding pattern (unless Airbus take pre-emptive action - RR already has), until Boeing is able and willing to put 777X performance guarantees on the table, backed with meaningful penalties.


Many have said that has been the case with every 777X order placed to date and that it is the airlines that have the flexibility in the contracts, not Boeing.


smartplane wrote:
If Airbus acquires RR commercial, the engine decision may receive a more a sympathetic hearing, or the opposite, but with a commitment to another A350 model iteration.


I can't see that passing anti-trust review in the EU, much less the US.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:14 pm

Noshow wrote:
Not taking more A380s will dramatically change the business model of EK. A big question is where they want to go to? They have no slots and gates to waste so why to shrink the aircraft size?

They also have a 78% overall load factor (so more than 1 in 5 seats flies empty), competitors flying more efficient 787/A350 and opening/growing hubs and often offering more favorable routings, A380/77Ws sitting because there's a global shortage of pilots, EK/DXB no longer viewed as favorable a plaice to visit/live/work as it might once have been, etc.

Slug71 wrote:
This looks more and more like a bit of hustling by EK.

Again, it makes one wonder what the triggering event was: EK not able to get acceptable terms on A380 engines, or Airbus wanting to shut down the A380 before Enders retires.

It may be an Airbus hustle to force STC to crap or get off the pot, just like the last threat to close down the A380 production line was.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
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