Vladex
Posts: 336
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 2:44 pm

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:33 pm

seahawk wrote:
A NEO needs engines ,engines that allow it to win against a 777-9 and stay competitive with a 787/A350 engine update. There are no such engines at the moment.



There are many engines options developing , most of which Ultrafan which seems purpose designed.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... de-450175/
Rolls-Royce has frozen the design for a demonstrator version of its UltraFan future engine programme, which is to be run in ground tests in 2021.
 
Planeflyer
Posts: 1396
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:49 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:40 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
Why would it be so hard to put the current RR Trent 7000 that is already developed for the A330-900 onto the A380? Throw in the previously proposed A380 Plus upgrades, and they have a rather cheap refresh that could extend the window for developing a true NEO based on a geared turbofan.


It should be a no-brainer. It should have been offered on the -Plus to begin with. I think the issue comes down to the cost split between RR and Airbus.
The cost to certify cant be that bad though. Especially now that its certified. And RR has the most to gain, so its surprising they aren't all about it. Even if they took the biggest hit in the split, it would be worth it.


You all act as if the engine is the only determiner of operating economics. What do these "new" engines add in terms of acquisition cost? As "easy" as it is, there are more R&D and cerification costs that must be factored in. The engines themselves are more expensive being newer. At what small percentage improvement to CASM assuming full LF? You still have a plane whose basic economic assumptions are flawed and have been largely rejected by the market. In short, a half-a$$ed NEO right now does nothing to solve the fundamental economic proposition of the A380.


Agree, good assessment.

Now is the time to right the program or end it.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26306
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sun Feb 03, 2019 9:12 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
I'll add that I fail to see why EK needs to order 20 more (777X) from Boeing as some sort of appeasement to canceling a 787 order? It's not like they don't already have 150 of them on order. Might as well wait and see...


It could be to protect the MoU deposits for the 787s (which could be forfeit if EK cancels) or EK looking to maintain a positive relationship with Boeing should they cancel plans to purchase 40 787s to instead purchase A330s/A350s. And if EK will walk away from some or all of the A380 follow-on tranche they placed this time last year, they may feel they need additional 777-9 to maintain their capacity plans.
 
JoeCanuck
Posts: 4704
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:30 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sun Feb 03, 2019 9:31 pm

Ultimately, a product must be profitable or it will eventually stop being produced. Every 380 has been produced at a loss and there is no indication that EK, (the only significant potential customer), would ever buy enough to not just pay for any 380 upgrades, but buy enough airframes for the program to ever turn a profit.

The T7000 or XWB engines are marginally more efficient than the T900. Even if they were fitted to the 380, they would be a stopgap measure at best, while waiting for the NEO Mk2 using Ultrafans. The built in obsolescence of that model kills any business case. In the meantime, the 380 continues to lose money with the added couple of billion of the shelf life limited NEO added to that.

Optimistically, if Airbus started now, they might be able to begin producing a 380NEO by 2022. That means a maximum of 5 years production before they would have to switch to the Ultrafan. It also means 3 more years of Airbus not just losing more money keeping production of the CEO up during transition, but Emirates has to put 20 or more uncompetitive aircraft in its fleet while waiting for another aircraft that will still be uncompetitive.

Even then...it would take hundreds of 380Ultras to make a dent in past losses, much less turn a profit. Who would buy all of those aircraft?

However you slice it, it's impossible to come up with a realistic scenario where the 380 ever makes money for Airbus. I highly doubt EK wants any more 380CEO's at all and will cancel as many as they can due to engine shortfalls and will defer as many as of the rest as possible...as far into the future as possible.

Trading 350's for 380's is the best deal for all parties moving forward. Airbus trades money losing production for profit making production and EK gets a significantly more competitive and future proof aircraft.
What the...?
 
Bricktop
Posts: 1375
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:04 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sun Feb 03, 2019 9:51 pm

Airlinerdude wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:

And they know exactly jack s**t because the plane hasn't flown yet. Boeing, at best, is providing certain data modeling sets. Nothing more. Proof will be in that pudding and not in your asking us to take two leaps of faith: 1) that you think you know someone, and 2) that person or persons know anything at all.


Perhaps you're furthering your own personal agenda given your username,

Nah, he's (assuming gender, sorry) also got references to products associated with RR and P&W, so argument fail.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 1394
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sun Feb 03, 2019 10:57 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
Even then...it would take hundreds of 380Ultras to make a dent in past losses, much less turn a profit. Who would buy all of those aircraft?

However you slice it, it's impossible to come up with a realistic scenario where the 380 ever makes money for Airbus. I highly doubt EK wants any more 380CEO's at all and will cancel as many as they can due to engine shortfalls and will defer as many as of the rest as possible...as far into the future as possible.

Trading 350's for 380's is the best deal for all parties moving forward. Airbus trades money losing production for profit making production and EK gets a significantly more competitive and future proof aircraft.


I believe that EK has too many planes on order, except for the 380 top up order that RR won't sign for the engines on they have not ordered planes in 5 years. But there are still more on order than their current fleet size. It seems desirable to push out deliveries of the planes they do have on order, trading 380's that would be delivered in say 4 years for 350's delivered a decade away defers a bunch of capex for a long time.

It is likely that the next 20 of EK's 380s have entered parts production, it would be expensive to terminate those frames. It is easy to envision 3 or 4 years more production to finish the backlog that is committed. Possibly a dozen of EK's current 380's could go. For AB it would allow the rate to stay higher, 8 to 10 per year before closure, improving the variable loss on each frame. For if AB is losing money on each frame, it is not improving its position by running any longer than necessary.

As to BA taking any more 380's, why buy new now when in not many years LN 30 and above frames will be coming off lease. If RR's, the PIP improvements could be introduced, a decent improvement.
 
User avatar
Slug71
Posts: 1383
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:08 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sun Feb 03, 2019 11:23 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
Why would it be so hard to put the current RR Trent 7000 that is already developed for the A330-900 onto the A380? Throw in the previously proposed A380 Plus upgrades, and they have a rather cheap refresh that could extend the window for developing a true NEO based on a geared turbofan.


It should be a no-brainer. It should have been offered on the -Plus to begin with. I think the issue comes down to the cost split between RR and Airbus.
The cost to certify cant be that bad though. Especially now that its certified. And RR has the most to gain, so its surprising they aren't all about it. Even if they took the biggest hit in the split, it would be worth it.


You all act as if the engine is the only determiner of operating economics. What do these "new" engines add in terms of acquisition cost? As "easy" as it is, there are more R&D and cerification costs that must be factored in. The engines themselves are more expensive being newer. At what small percentage improvement to CASM assuming full LF? You still have a plane whose basic economic assumptions are flawed and have been largely rejected by the market. In short, a half-a$$ed NEO right now does nothing to solve the fundamental economic proposition of the A380.


It adds future support for the A380. The T1000-TEN should get at least a couple of PiPs in it's life. The T900 gets a big fat Zero. Plus a much larger parts market. The higher volume of T1000-TENs in the market thanks to the 787 and A330N should also lower acquisition cost. Eventually at least.
RR can also shift the remaining T900 resources toward their more successful or new (advance/ultrafan) products.
The T7000 right off the bat should be at least 2% more efficient than the T900. Paired with new winglets, it should be enough to please EK.

I agree its halfa$$ed. But there aren't any other options without spending a boatload of cash. Which isn't justifiable.
 
User avatar
Erebus
Posts: 990
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:40 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Sun Feb 03, 2019 11:48 pm

Stitch wrote:
It could be to protect the MoU deposits for the 787s (which could be forfeit if EK cancels)...


Wait, is it true that EK put down deposits on the 787 MOU?

Obviously firm orders require substantial deposits, purchase rights and options have significant fees associated as well. But I was of the view that MOUs cost practically nothing and are often left to lapse (even EK have done it in the past).
 
User avatar
flee
Posts: 953
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:14 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:25 am

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
Why would it be so hard to put the current RR Trent 7000 that is already developed for the A330-900 onto the A380? Throw in the previously proposed A380 Plus upgrades, and they have a rather cheap refresh that could extend the window for developing a true NEO based on a geared turbofan.

It should be a no-brainer. It should have been offered on the -Plus to begin with. I think the issue comes down to the cost split between RR and Airbus.
The cost to certify cant be that bad though. Especially now that its certified. And RR has the most to gain, so its surprising they aren't all about it. Even if they took the biggest hit in the split, it would be worth it.

You all act as if the engine is the only determiner of operating economics. What do these "new" engines add in terms of acquisition cost? As "easy" as it is, there are more R&D and cerification costs that must be factored in. The engines themselves are more expensive being newer. At what small percentage improvement to CASM assuming full LF? You still have a plane whose basic economic assumptions are flawed and have been largely rejected by the market. In short, a half-a$$ed NEO right now does nothing to solve the fundamental economic proposition of the A380.

Yes, I tend to agree on this - the A380-800 is sub optimised and its economics did not quite measure up to what airlines are expecting. This is probably due to the fact that the design was targeted at the B747 (which is also not that efficient) rather than the big twins. With delayed EIS, the competition from the big twins has become even more intense. It was a shame we never got to see an A380-900 due to airlines not being big enough to operate it. Maybe that oversized wing would come on its own on the -900.

Bottom line is that a Neo was 100% technically feasible and both the TXWB and T7000 can be easily integrated. It is just that the financials don't add up.
 
JoeCanuck
Posts: 4704
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:30 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:37 am

flee wrote:

Bottom line is that a Neo was 100% technically feasible and both the TXWB and T7000 can be easily integrated. It is just that the financials don't add up.


100% correct. There isn't a single 'save the 380' scenario that ends up with it making a profit for Airbus.
What the...?
 
User avatar
Slug71
Posts: 1383
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:08 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:45 am

JoeCanuck wrote:
flee wrote:

Bottom line is that a Neo was 100% technically feasible and both the TXWB and T7000 can be easily integrated. It is just that the financials don't add up.


100% correct. There isn't a single 'save the 380' scenario that ends up with it making a profit for Airbus.


I disagree.
It will take some investment to optimize. But in the 2030s when air travel is supposed to double, it will shine.
 
User avatar
Slug71
Posts: 1383
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:08 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:45 am

JoeCanuck wrote:
flee wrote:

Bottom line is that a Neo was 100% technically feasible and both the TXWB and T7000 can be easily integrated. It is just that the financials don't add up.


100% correct. There isn't a single 'save the 380' scenario that ends up with it making a profit for Airbus.


I disagree.
It will take some investment to optimize. But in the 2030s when air travel is supposed to double, it will shine.
 
JoeCanuck
Posts: 4704
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:30 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:00 am

Slug71 wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:
flee wrote:

Bottom line is that a Neo was 100% technically feasible and both the TXWB and T7000 can be easily integrated. It is just that the financials don't add up.


100% correct. There isn't a single 'save the 380' scenario that ends up with it making a profit for Airbus.


I disagree.
It will take some investment to optimize. But in the 2030s when air travel is supposed to double, it will shine.


I would be interested in seeing a scenario where the 380 not only stays in production past 2030..it shines and makes Airbus a profit.
What the...?
 
B2707SST
Posts: 1287
Joined: Wed Apr 23, 2003 5:25 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:04 am

Slug71 wrote:
I disagree.
It will take some investment to optimize. But in the 2030s when air travel is supposed to double, it will shine.


First, this has been Airbus' business case since the A3XX days of the late 1990s, but air traffic has nearly tripled since then and yet they've only managed to sell a few hundred A380s. The long-awaited 747-400 replacement cycle is nearly complete and the A380 has captured just a fraction of that market. With Airbus and Boeing cranking out widebodies at unprecedented rates, the question has to be "if not now, when?" This project is turning into aviation's version of nuclear fusion: it's always a decade away.

Second, the A380 is rapidly losing ground to smaller yet more efficient twinjets like the A350 and 787, and this is only going to get worse as time passes. The list of improvements the A380 needs to stay competitive - new higher-aspect ratio wing, smaller empennage, smaller landing gear, new engines, more CFRP construction, maybe a fuselage stretch - is so long and costly they might as well start from scratch. The resources Airbus would have to invest to save the platform would be much better spent on A350 derivatives in the meantime and, when and if the market ever truly calls for a VLA, a clean-sheet design that incorporates everything they've learned over the past 20+ years.
Keynes is dead and we are living in his long run.
 
User avatar
Slug71
Posts: 1383
Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:08 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:39 am

B2707SST wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
I disagree.
It will take some investment to optimize. But in the 2030s when air travel is supposed to double, it will shine.


First, this has been Airbus' business case since the A3XX days of the late 1990s, but air traffic has nearly tripled since then and yet they've only managed to sell a few hundred A380s. The long-awaited 747-400 replacement cycle is nearly complete and the A380 has captured just a fraction of that market. With Airbus and Boeing cranking out widebodies at unprecedented rates, the question has to be "if not now, when?" This project is turning into aviation's version of nuclear fusion: it's always a decade away.

Second, the A380 is rapidly losing ground to smaller yet more efficient twinjets like the A350 and 787, and this is only going to get worse as time passes. The list of improvements the A380 needs to stay competitive - new higher-aspect ratio wing, smaller empennage, smaller landing gear, new engines, more CFRP construction, maybe a fuselage stretch - is so long and costly they might as well start from scratch. The resources Airbus would have to invest to save the platform would be much better spent on A350 derivatives in the meantime and, when and if the market ever truly calls for a VLA, a clean-sheet design that incorporates everything they've learned over the past 20+ years.


I agree. But airports weren't facing the congestion then that they will be going forward. I still think theres even a chance for the 747-8i to gain momentum again. At least I hope.
But I dont see Airbus or Boeing investing heavily in a clean sheet VLA anytime soon.

Which brings up another point. When does the rumor mill begin that EK is looking at the 747-8i? :lol:
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 8498
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:16 am

Vladex wrote:
seahawk wrote:
A NEO needs engines ,engines that allow it to win against a 777-9 and stay competitive with a 787/A350 engine update. There are no such engines at the moment.



There are many engines options developing , most of which Ultrafan which seems purpose designed.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... de-450175/
Rolls-Royce has frozen the design for a demonstrator version of its UltraFan future engine programme, which is to be run in ground tests in 2021.


Ultrafan would be a 2026 option. But how do you get the line to 2026?
 
ewt340
Posts: 738
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:32 am

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
You A380neo dreamers can quit dreaming. Ain't happening. No one is upgrading a money loser for one customer. They're not digging the debt hole further.


Honestly, Emirates are the only one dreaming of it. Even Airbus hated the ideas of A380neo.
 
ewt340
Posts: 738
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:33 am

Slug71 wrote:
B2707SST wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
I disagree.
It will take some investment to optimize. But in the 2030s when air travel is supposed to double, it will shine.


First, this has been Airbus' business case since the A3XX days of the late 1990s, but air traffic has nearly tripled since then and yet they've only managed to sell a few hundred A380s. The long-awaited 747-400 replacement cycle is nearly complete and the A380 has captured just a fraction of that market. With Airbus and Boeing cranking out widebodies at unprecedented rates, the question has to be "if not now, when?" This project is turning into aviation's version of nuclear fusion: it's always a decade away.

Second, the A380 is rapidly losing ground to smaller yet more efficient twinjets like the A350 and 787, and this is only going to get worse as time passes. The list of improvements the A380 needs to stay competitive - new higher-aspect ratio wing, smaller empennage, smaller landing gear, new engines, more CFRP construction, maybe a fuselage stretch - is so long and costly they might as well start from scratch. The resources Airbus would have to invest to save the platform would be much better spent on A350 derivatives in the meantime and, when and if the market ever truly calls for a VLA, a clean-sheet design that incorporates everything they've learned over the past 20+ years.


I agree. But airports weren't facing the congestion then that they will be going forward. I still think theres even a chance for the 747-8i to gain momentum again. At least I hope.
But I dont see Airbus or Boeing investing heavily in a clean sheet VLA anytime soon.

Which brings up another point. When does the rumor mill begin that EK is looking at the 747-8i? :lol:


The fact that some people still believe in B747-8i when B777-9 would be entering the market in couple years blows my mind....
 
Bricktop
Posts: 1375
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:04 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:43 am

ewt340 wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
B2707SST wrote:

First, this has been Airbus' business case since the A3XX days of the late 1990s, but air traffic has nearly tripled since then and yet they've only managed to sell a few hundred A380s. The long-awaited 747-400 replacement cycle is nearly complete and the A380 has captured just a fraction of that market. With Airbus and Boeing cranking out widebodies at unprecedented rates, the question has to be "if not now, when?" This project is turning into aviation's version of nuclear fusion: it's always a decade away.

Second, the A380 is rapidly losing ground to smaller yet more efficient twinjets like the A350 and 787, and this is only going to get worse as time passes. The list of improvements the A380 needs to stay competitive - new higher-aspect ratio wing, smaller empennage, smaller landing gear, new engines, more CFRP construction, maybe a fuselage stretch - is so long and costly they might as well start from scratch. The resources Airbus would have to invest to save the platform would be much better spent on A350 derivatives in the meantime and, when and if the market ever truly calls for a VLA, a clean-sheet design that incorporates everything they've learned over the past 20+ years.


I agree. But airports weren't facing the congestion then that they will be going forward. I still think theres even a chance for the 747-8i to gain momentum again. At least I hope.
But I dont see Airbus or Boeing investing heavily in a clean sheet VLA anytime soon.

Which brings up another point. When does the rumor mill begin that EK is looking at the 747-8i? :lol:


The fact that some people still believe in B747-8i when B777-9 would be entering the market in couple years blows my mind....

Word! The only thing deader than the A380 is the B748i.
 
User avatar
Taxi645
Posts: 316
Joined: Wed Feb 22, 2017 7:29 pm

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:53 am

One possibilty:

A proper NEO (not one without a solid bussiness case) would probably require engines shared with a A330 successor (please don't discuss this it has all been discussed before).

However Airbus is unlikely to decide on a A330 successor before Boeing has decided on NMA. Thus the continous postponing of the NMA deciscion is making the possible "stretch A380 production till an A380NEO is technically/economically viable with this 36 order" increasingly less attractive to stomach.
Innovation is seeing opportunity before obstacle.
 
WIederling
Posts: 8482
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 8:40 am

Slug71 wrote:
It will take some investment to optimize. But in the 2030s when air travel is supposed to double, it will shine.


It also is a 3+ decades old design in the 2030ties.
911 @ 2001 and the GFC @ 2008 really broke the camels back in that respect.
Traffic growth was heavily stunted each time.

The windows of "design freshness" and "demand" no longer overlap.
Murphy is an optimist
 
downdata
Posts: 551
Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2016 2:38 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 8:44 am

Slug71 wrote:
B2707SST wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
I disagree.
It will take some investment to optimize. But in the 2030s when air travel is supposed to double, it will shine.


First, this has been Airbus' business case since the A3XX days of the late 1990s, but air traffic has nearly tripled since then and yet they've only managed to sell a few hundred A380s. The long-awaited 747-400 replacement cycle is nearly complete and the A380 has captured just a fraction of that market. With Airbus and Boeing cranking out widebodies at unprecedented rates, the question has to be "if not now, when?" This project is turning into aviation's version of nuclear fusion: it's always a decade away.

Second, the A380 is rapidly losing ground to smaller yet more efficient twinjets like the A350 and 787, and this is only going to get worse as time passes. The list of improvements the A380 needs to stay competitive - new higher-aspect ratio wing, smaller empennage, smaller landing gear, new engines, more CFRP construction, maybe a fuselage stretch - is so long and costly they might as well start from scratch. The resources Airbus would have to invest to save the platform would be much better spent on A350 derivatives in the meantime and, when and if the market ever truly calls for a VLA, a clean-sheet design that incorporates everything they've learned over the past 20+ years.


I agree. But airports weren't facing the congestion then that they will be going forward. I still think theres even a chance for the 747-8i to gain momentum again. At least I hope.
But I dont see Airbus or Boeing investing heavily in a clean sheet VLA anytime soon.

Which brings up another point. When does the rumor mill begin that EK is looking at the 747-8i? :lol:


Ah yes the 748i with same capabilities as the 779 only with 4 engines as oppose to 2
 
Vladex
Posts: 336
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 2:44 pm

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 9:09 am

JoeCanuck wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:

100% correct. There isn't a single 'save the 380' scenario that ends up with it making a profit for Airbus.


I disagree.
It will take some investment to optimize. But in the 2030s when air travel is supposed to double, it will shine.


I would be interested in seeing a scenario where the 380 not only stays in production past 2030..it shines and makes Airbus a profit.


Why are you concerned about Airbus profit? If companies made only things that only made profit then they would go out of business at the first change in the market.
 
Vladex
Posts: 336
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 2:44 pm

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 9:11 am

seahawk wrote:
Vladex wrote:
seahawk wrote:
A NEO needs engines ,engines that allow it to win against a 777-9 and stay competitive with a 787/A350 engine update. There are no such engines at the moment.



There are many engines options developing , most of which Ultrafan which seems purpose designed.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... de-450175/
Rolls-Royce has frozen the design for a demonstrator version of its UltraFan future engine programme, which is to be run in ground tests in 2021.


Ultrafan would be a 2026 option. But how do you get the line to 2026?


2025 at the latest, the design is frozen and it has been developing for 5 years.
 
pabloeing
Topic Author
Posts: 579
Joined: Wed Dec 10, 2014 3:00 pm

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 9:16 am

¿20 B777X for 40 B78X?.....the B78X is for non-hubs airports in 4500 NM......the B777X is a VLA
 
Noshow
Posts: 936
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 9:16 am

Ultrafan for the A380? You would need some wealthy and highly motivated RR to do it so fast. If RR talk to EK for a year now without an order it doesn't feel like it for the moment.
 
Boeing74741R
Posts: 1095
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2007 5:44 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 9:48 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
As to BA taking any more 380's, why buy new now when in not many years LN 30 and above frames will be coming off lease. If RR's, the PIP improvements could be introduced, a decent improvement.


BA have a number of 747's (somewhere in the mid-teens) that they intend to withdraw in the mid-2020's that currently have nothing on order to replace them with. I get the impression that the A380 is something Willie Walsh would like to replace some/all of these if a deal can be made to match his pricing expectations. After all, LHR is the perfect airport for the A380 (let's put the third runway to one side as that's at least 10 years away and has a long way to go before there's spades in the ground). It's probably getting to the stage where a decision would need to be made soon to secure suitable production slots for whatever they choose that fits in nicely with these timescales. There's also likely to be competition from whatever BA chooses to replace the older variants of their large fleet of 777's, some of which will be approaching 30 years old during the second half of the next decade and they have previously indicated their current thinking is to retain 777's for 30 years.

You're also assuming that enough A380's will be available for lease by then as there's nothing to stop the existing airlines extending leases if they see fit to do so, plus any that do come off lease may not be suitable for a whole host of reasons (cycles, engines, condition, work/money needed to reconfigure them to BA spec, etc.).

Of course, if there's a steep recession in a few years time and BA decide to make cuts in response, they could simply replace them with nothing and order something smaller if/when things pick up again.
 
MileHFL400
Posts: 642
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:07 am

Please delete if already being discussed.

I thought this deserved a separate thread to the ongoing A380 to A350 saga. What the hell is going on with Emirates? To be fair I was always doubtful about them taking the 787 in the first place!


https://gulfnews.com/business/aviation/ ... 1.61828728
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 17256
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:41 am

They can't cancel an order they haven't placed! EK has let LOI/MOU lapse in the past, so it shouldn't be that shocking.

Leeham news are suggesting that the 78X is still underpowered for EK's requirements.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/02/04/ponti ... -emirates/
But Emirates’ interest in the A350 stems more from a realization the Boeing 787-10 won’t do the job the airline wants, according to the sideline conversation at the conference.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
mwhcvt
Posts: 988
Joined: Sun Oct 05, 2008 2:01 pm

Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:41 am

How can you cancel an order that you never finalised, an EK787 order has never appeared on the Boeing order book as far as I can remember or find
Must think up a new one soon, slow moving brain trying to get into gear ;)
 
User avatar
chunhimlai
Posts: 424
Joined: Wed Jun 03, 2015 11:03 am

Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:44 am

Not surprised when EK consider to order A350
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13022
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:45 am

Years ago a angry prince suddenly cancelled a big A350-900/-1000 order, shocking his own fleet/ network planning departments. Now everybody is introducing -1000's. Luckily EK has a big 787-10 / 777-8 backlog to cover this segment..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 8498
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:52 am

Vladex wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Vladex wrote:


There are many engines options developing , most of which Ultrafan which seems purpose designed.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... de-450175/
Rolls-Royce has frozen the design for a demonstrator version of its UltraFan future engine programme, which is to be run in ground tests in 2021.


Ultrafan would be a 2026 option. But how do you get the line to 2026?


2025 at the latest, the design is frozen and it has been developing for 5 years.


The design for a technology demonstrator is frozen, but that is a long way from an engine for the A380.
 
AsiaTravel
Posts: 315
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 2:28 am

Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:54 am

I find it baffling that EK would order a type without making sure it can fly out of DXB at all times. Unless the order is conditional to an engine improvement but we see how this is going with RR and the A380.
 
User avatar
FrenchPotatoEye
Posts: 205
Joined: Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:20 pm

Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:04 am

scbriml wrote:
They can't cancel an order they haven't placed! EK has let LOI/MOU lapse in the past, so it shouldn't be that shocking.

Leeham news are suggesting that the 78X is still underpowered for EK's requirements.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/02/04/ponti ... -emirates/
But Emirates’ interest in the A350 stems more from a realization the Boeing 787-10 won’t do the job the airline wants, according to the sideline conversation at the conference.


Yet neighbouring Etihad is experiencing NO issues with its 787-10s....so I call BS on that front.

And EY's 787-10s are duel class I believe, so not exactly lightly loaded machines.
 
MileHFL400
Posts: 642
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:05 am

AsiaTravel wrote:
I find it baffling that EK would order a type without making sure it can fly out of DXB at all times. Unless the order is conditional to an engine improvement but we see how this is going with RR and the A380.


Interestingly before the 787 announcement I remember Clark having concerns about its performance out of Dubai.

But Etihad has similar conditions and have 5 in its fleet already flying to places as far as MAN.
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
User avatar
Kindanew
Posts: 159
Joined: Tue May 30, 2017 11:07 pm

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:07 am

Leeham are reporting that Emirates have decided the 787-10 engines do not have the performance they require.

But Emirates’ interest in the A350 stems more from a realization the Boeing 787-10 won’t do the job the airline wants, according to the sideline conversation at the conference.


https://leehamnews.com/2019/02/04/ponti ... -emirates/
 
xwb565
Posts: 94
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2018 1:01 pm

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:32 am

Kindanew wrote:
Leeham are reporting that Emirates have decided the 787-10 engines do not have the performance they require.

But Emirates’ interest in the A350 stems more from a realization the Boeing 787-10 won’t do the job the airline wants, according to the sideline conversation at the conference.


https://leehamnews.com/2019/02/04/ponti ... -emirates/


They would have had every iron clad performance and engine wing time guarantee before selecting the 787 so this does not add up.... The a359 has a better takeoff performance and theoretically more derates but EK should have been aware of this before they made their choice.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7070
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:37 am

Next year or so, when 777X is dressed up for prom, EK will go with 787.
 
Noshow
Posts: 936
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:42 am

I get more and more the impression that this whole escalation is more related to EK's strategy itself and the overall middle east situation than to their aircraft performance requirements.
 
User avatar
SQ789
Posts: 619
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:51 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:48 am

I see in Planespotters that they still have an A380 on order, will they still take delivery of new A388?

https://www.planespotters.net/productio ... us=current
Last edited by SQ789 on Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:50 am, edited 2 times in total.
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
User avatar
Kindanew
Posts: 159
Joined: Tue May 30, 2017 11:07 pm

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:49 am

xwb565 wrote:
Kindanew wrote:
Leeham are reporting that Emirates have decided the 787-10 engines do not have the performance they require.

But Emirates’ interest in the A350 stems more from a realization the Boeing 787-10 won’t do the job the airline wants, according to the sideline conversation at the conference.


https://leehamnews.com/2019/02/04/ponti ... -emirates/


They would have had every iron clad performance and engine wing time guarantee before selecting the 787 so this does not add up.... The a359 has a better takeoff performance and theoretically more derates but EK should have been aware of this before they made their choice.


Unless they re evaluated what their performance requirements actually where in the first place.
 
marcelh
Posts: 640
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:04 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
scbriml wrote:
They can't cancel an order they haven't placed! EK has let LOI/MOU lapse in the past, so it shouldn't be that shocking.

Leeham news are suggesting that the 78X is still underpowered for EK's requirements.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/02/04/ponti ... -emirates/
But Emirates’ interest in the A350 stems more from a realization the Boeing 787-10 won’t do the job the airline wants, according to the sideline conversation at the conference.


Yet neighbouring Etihad is experiencing NO issues with its 787-10s....so I call BS on that front.

And EY's 787-10s are duel class I believe, so not exactly lightly loaded machines.

Or EK is just seeking an excuse to dump the 787-10 MoU
 
Kikko19
Posts: 523
Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2017 4:45 pm

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:22 pm

I guess EK will stop the expansion then, with no a380 and not moving to the new airport how'd they cope with the limited slots of DXB?
 
waoz1
Posts: 520
Joined: Fri Oct 28, 2016 7:31 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:26 pm

Makes sense if they are going to expand, not all cities can handle a daily 773 or A388. Also might give some cities more frequenies.
 
User avatar
FrenchPotatoEye
Posts: 205
Joined: Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:20 pm

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:30 pm

Kindanew wrote:
Leeham are reporting that Emirates have decided the 787-10 engines do not have the performance they require.

But Emirates’ interest in the A350 stems more from a realization the Boeing 787-10 won’t do the job the airline wants, according to the sideline conversation at the conference.


https://leehamnews.com/2019/02/04/ponti ... -emirates/


As I said in the other thread - that is total BS.

Down the road at AUH, EY is doing just fine with its duel class 787-10s with identical climate conditions.

More wrong and wishful thinking by pro-Airbus Lenham.

I would also contend that this same writer claimed the engine nonsense before, yet in 2017, Emirates still went public with the 787 order/deal/mou/loi. Clearly at that point in 2017 when the EK-787 deal made public, engines weren't an issue - and I bet they aren't an issue now either!
Last edited by FrenchPotatoEye on Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
Momo1435
Posts: 916
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:33 pm

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:37 pm

Kindanew wrote:
xwb565 wrote:
Kindanew wrote:
Leeham are reporting that Emirates have decided the 787-10 engines do not have the performance they require.



https://leehamnews.com/2019/02/04/ponti ... -emirates/


They would have had every iron clad performance and engine wing time guarantee before selecting the 787 so this does not add up.... The a359 has a better takeoff performance and theoretically more derates but EK should have been aware of this before they made their choice.


Unless they re evaluated what their performance requirements actually where in the first place.

They will now also be getting real operational data via EY. They might have reevaluated of course. It could even be a reaction to the new situation without an A380 engine deal, having to look at alternatives where they also want smaller widebodies for long distance flights.

This information, if true also means that the converting to the A330neo story be accurate as they have the same engines as the 787. That's the issue with this kind of large stories that are solely based on unidentified sources who are close to the negotiations, you always get info that is not 100% true or up to date. Airbus will of course be offering the A330neo, that doesn't mean that EK wants it.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 17684
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:39 pm

Erebus wrote:
Stitch wrote:
It could be to protect the MoU deposits for the 787s (which could be forfeit if EK cancels)...


Wait, is it true that EK put down deposits on the 787 MOU?

Obviously firm orders require substantial deposits, purchase rights and options have significant fees associated as well. But I was of the view that MOUs cost practically nothing and are often left to lapse (even EK have done it in the past).

Probably little to no deposit.

MOUs vary. Some have no deposit, some have a small deposit to hold slots (but only for the first few slots). I suspect there is no money.

I postulate EK just wants to meet fleet needs, cash flow needs, and keep on good terms with both vendors.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
marcelh
Posts: 640
Joined: Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:43 pm

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:39 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Kindanew wrote:
Leeham are reporting that Emirates have decided the 787-10 engines do not have the performance they require.

But Emirates’ interest in the A350 stems more from a realization the Boeing 787-10 won’t do the job the airline wants, according to the sideline conversation at the conference.


https://leehamnews.com/2019/02/04/ponti ... -emirates/


As I said in the other thread - that is total BS.

Down the road at AUH, EY is doing just fine with its duel class 787-10s with identical climate conditions.

More wrong and wishful thinking by pro-Airbus Lenham.

EY hasn’t flown the 787-10 in the ME summer yet. And they might be accepting some penalties in the summer, while EK doesn’t.
 
AsiaTravel
Posts: 315
Joined: Fri Dec 04, 2009 2:28 am

Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:41 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:

As I said in the other thread - that is total BS.

Down the road at AUH, EY is doing just fine with its duel class 787-10s with identical climate conditions.

More wrong and wishful thinking by pro-Airbus Lenham.


There are no evidences for or against it and EY's 781 haven't flown in summer yet. For all we know Etihad might be limited on some routes or can only fly full load in the morning or they just don't have any issue. Anything right know is speculation. Time will tell.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos