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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:45 pm

AsiaTravel wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:

As I said in the other thread - that is total BS.

Down the road at AUH, EY is doing just fine with its duel class 787-10s with identical climate conditions.

More wrong and wishful thinking by pro-Airbus Lenham.


There are no evidences for or against it and EY's 781 haven't flown in summer yet. For all we know Etihad might be limited on some routes or can only fly full load in the morning or they just don't have any issue. Anything right know is speculation. Time will tell.


Eh? How can you claim 'no evidence' and then say EY might be limiting loads (on the dash-10s). But anyway....!

That makes no sense. Sure, yet to be flown out of the UAE in summer, but there's been plenty of days where the temps have been more than 30c and the 78710s have been operating just fine.
 
VV
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:45 pm

For the first time ever everyone seems to agree on the fate of the A380.

How many debates and disputes and words spent? Finally everybody agrees. It takes only 20 years to achieve this consensus.
 
majano
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:53 pm

VV wrote:
For the first time ever everyone seems to agree on the fate of the A380.

How many debates and disputes and words spent? Finally everybody agrees. It takes only 20 years to achieve this consensus.

Do you think there is consensus?
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:54 pm

Impact of the hot environment in Dubai on the lifting capability of the 787-10 was one of the issues of concern to EK all along. I assume they were satisfied on this by the time they placed the MoU.

So what has changed?

They can see that QR is very happy with their A350s (both models) in a very similar hot environment (even if they are not on direct speaking terms!). Or maybe Airbus has offered a higher thrust A350 than in their original tender, perhaps even a A359 with the A3510 engines, or other substantial improvements that warrant what looks like a re-run of the competition.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:58 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Impact of the hot environment in Dubai on the lifting capability of the 787-10 was one of the issues of concern to EK all along..


Knowing its systemwide average loads, shouldn't be a valid concern.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Channex757
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:59 pm

Maybe the core issue revolves around cargo capacity. EK SkyCargo is an important part of the business. Etihad may be operating theirs successfully enough but does the EK model start causing issues with items like tyre loading and available thrust?

Thrust is apparently an issue with the two engine variants supposedly at their maximum before expensive reworking is needed. Etihad might have a settled way of using theirs but EK wants more.
 
jayunited
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:00 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Yet neighbouring Etihad is experiencing NO issues with its 787-10s....so I call BS on that front.

And EY's 787-10s are duel class I believe, so not exactly lightly loaded machines.


Exactly!!
If EK believes the 787-10 is under powered then they should just wait for the 778. While it is important for both Airbus and Boeing to meet EK's needs these manufactures realize EK is but one airline they need to make sure their products can also meet the needs of the other 99%. In my opinion (and I could be wrong) but I think Boeing is specifically designing the 778 to meet the needs of EK. I think in time the 779 will be a hot seller and probably find a home with many of the worlds top international airlines. On the other hand the 778 seem to be more targeted toward the needs of airlines like EK and QR.
 
justloveplanes
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:04 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
scbriml wrote:
They can't cancel an order they haven't placed! EK has let LOI/MOU lapse in the past, so it shouldn't be that shocking.

Leeham news are suggesting that the 78X is still underpowered for EK's requirements.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/02/04/ponti ... -emirates/
But Emirates’ interest in the A350 stems more from a realization the Boeing 787-10 won’t do the job the airline wants, according to the sideline conversation at the conference.


Yet neighbouring Etihad is experiencing NO issues with its 787-10s....so I call BS on that front.

And EY's 787-10s are duel class I believe, so not exactly lightly loaded machines.


EK rejected the A350 twice. They were aware the 78J had less power, STC said it was a good 8 hour plane. The plane probably will go out light some times, they chose it anyway. The fact they are looking at the 330neo says this is more about EK picking up the pieces adjusting for business concerns. They need more long haul capacity... 20 777x <> 36 380.
 
justloveplanes
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:04 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
scbriml wrote:
They can't cancel an order they haven't placed! EK has let LOI/MOU lapse in the past, so it shouldn't be that shocking.

Leeham news are suggesting that the 78X is still underpowered for EK's requirements.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/02/04/ponti ... -emirates/
But Emirates’ interest in the A350 stems more from a realization the Boeing 787-10 won’t do the job the airline wants, according to the sideline conversation at the conference.


Yet neighbouring Etihad is experiencing NO issues with its 787-10s....so I call BS on that front.

And EY's 787-10s are duel class I believe, so not exactly lightly loaded machines.


EK rejected the A350 twice. They were aware the 78J had less power, STC said it was a good 8 hour plane. The plane probably will go out light some times, they chose it anyway. The fact they are looking at the 330neo says this is more about EK picking up the pieces adjusting for business concerns. They need more long haul capacity... 20 777x <> 36 380.
 
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:09 pm

JoeCanuck wrote:
The T7000 or XWB engines are marginally more efficient than the T900.

7% isn't marginal, IMHO. STC shares that opinion. Then, there's the future PIPs it will get that T900 will never get, and commonality with T1000/TXWB/T7000 going forward. For RR, there's all those compensation payments it has to make because of T900. Killing T900 off would be a blessing for all involved.

JoeCanuck wrote:
Even if they were fitted to the 380, they would be a stopgap measure at best, while waiting for the NEO Mk2 using Ultrafans.

Yet the alternate for Airbus means forgetting about the oft-mentioned VLA surge in the 2020s (not to mention the entire VLA dream it's a part of) and for EK it means the end of A380 and its halo effect sooner rather than later (since they turn over their aircraft after 10-12 years).

JoeCanuck wrote:
The built in obsolescence of that model kills any business case.

Airbus made a bunch of decisions to ramp down and try to keep the model alive till the mid 2020s knowing they'd be losing money all along. If it was about not losing money they would have done what Boeing did with 757 and said "last call, get your orders in before we shut down", but they didn't. Clearly they had a larger strategic goal in mind.

JoeCanuck wrote:
In the meantime, the 380 continues to lose money with the added couple of billion of the shelf life limited NEO added to that.

Airbus signed the 20+18 contract with EK knowing they could not make money at the current production rate. It's hard to understand why they would do that but would not have agreed to a NEO in the 2014-6 time frame just as they were considering A330neo. Again, clearly they had a larger strategic goal in mind.

JoeCanuck wrote:
Optimistically, if Airbus started now, they might be able to begin producing a 380NEO by 2022.

This is where we agree -- the time to launch a NEO was 2014-6 not now. It would be coming out presumably some time this year. It would have killed off the T900 and the need to make compensation payments, especially if a retrofit kit could be found. It would have won the EK business and presumably a few more frames from a few of the loyalists such as SQ. It would have kept the infrastructure together to produce an enhanced A380 in the mid-late 2020s.

RIght now RR's financials do not permit anything strategic. All their spare change is going towards replacing T1000 blades, and it will do so for another year or two.

Finally winding down the A380 will leave whatever future VLA market exists to 779 which seems to be the exact opposite of Airbus strategy for the last several years. It's also going to cause a bunch of ugly write downs and RLA accelerations for Airbus to deal with. It's kind of Enders to take the hit before he leaves (if that's how things play out) but it'd mean that he'll forever be remembered as the man who killed the A380.
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texl1649
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:32 pm

Correct. The 78J is an ideal 8 hour plane, and they know the aircraft quite well. The 778 however is even as of today not yet finalized, so I'm not sure why they'd move forward further on that unless Boeing has now convinced/shown them to go all in on 779/8 to replace long term the A380 fleet they are dumping orders for.

Neither the A380 nor the 78J are ideal cargo haulers, it must be noted, when discussing the worlds largest cargo airline. The 777 has been, and is.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:33 pm

From the Hamilton article: "Just as the time finally came to end the 787-8 passenger program (though, technically, it still can be ordered), the time has come for Airbus to end the A380."
When did that happen? Boeing literally took orders for the plane just last year.
That aside, I don't think Boeing would be too upset to trade 40 787's for 20 777's. I know GE would be happy.
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BlatantEcho
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:40 pm

I think what everyone is missing here, is that if Emirates is looking at the end of the A380, then they are looking at the end of their A380 fleet in 10-12 years.
If they have 100x A380s, the 787-10 makes a lot of sense.
If they are phasing out the A380 in a decade, they want to be set up with as much lift as possible to replace it - and the 779 is the way to go.

I could see them dumping the 36x A380s for A350s (to not see deposits go to waste), and then just go crazy on 777s to make that the absolute backbone of the fleet for the next 20 years.

I imagine that is what we're seeing here in the order mix being in flux right now.
 
AsiaTravel
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:40 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
AsiaTravel wrote:

There are no evidences for or against it and EY's 781 haven't flown in summer yet. For all we know Etihad might be limited on some routes or can only fly full load in the morning or they just don't have any issue. Anything right know is speculation. Time will tell.


Eh? How can you claim 'no evidence' and then say EY might be limiting loads (on the dash-10s). But anyway....!

That makes no sense. Sure, yet to be flown out of the UAE in summer, but there's been plenty of days where the temps have been more than 30c and the 78710s have been operating just fine.


Yes, "might". I also said they might not have any issues. Just saying we don't anything.

Comparing the 787-10 at Etihad makes no sense. There are a myriad of parameters that could make the difference:
-Etihad might be happy with a small payload hit in summer whereas Emirates isn't. (Summer being the high season you don't want your plane to be limited)
-Etihad might have different payload requirement (full pax + 1/3 cargo at all times vs full pax + full cargo at all times for EK for example).
-Emirates has denser cabin and therefore heavier plan than Etihad, this implies a different payload requirement.
-Emirates maybe want a frame that can fly 6000nm at full load while EY wants 5000nm.
-...
 
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Revelation
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:43 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
From the Hamilton article: "Just as the time finally came to end the 787-8 passenger program (though, technically, it still can be ordered), the time has come for Airbus to end the A380."
When did that happen? Boeing literally took orders for the plane just last year.
That aside, I don't think Boeing would be too upset to trade 40 787's for 20 777's. I know GE would be happy.

I think it's a typo -- he should have said 747-8 not 787-8.

747-8i technically still can be ordered.

Apparently Boeing keeps it on the book because if they cancel it officially they have to write some checks to some of the vendors of the pax specific parts.

Yet they've publicly said they aren't anticipating any more orders.

Lord knows what would happen if an airline showed up telling them they wanted to order some.
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WIederling
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:49 pm

xwb565 wrote:
They would have had every iron clad performance and engine wing time guarantee before selecting the 787 so this does not add up....


Only with a final contract/order, wouldn't it?

A hint why this never transitioned from MOU to "hewn in stone" ?
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VSMUT
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:54 pm

My guess:
The over ordered 777Xs and A380s. The 787-10 MOU was always about converting part of the 777X order to something more manageable, and the negotiations with Boeing somehow failed. Now it seems they are negotiating with Airbus to convert A380s to A350s, replacing the 787-10 in the role as the smaller wide-body at Emirates.
 
Bricktop
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:56 pm

cledaybuck wrote:
From the Hamilton article: "Just as the time finally came to end the 787-8 passenger program (though, technically, it still can be ordered), the time has come for Airbus to end the A380."
When did that happen? Boeing literally took orders for the plane just last year.
That aside, I don't think Boeing would be too upset to trade 40 787's for 20 777's. I know GE would be happy.

Typo, probably intended the 748-8. I appreciate their insight but they frequently need better editing.
 
musman9853
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 2:03 pm

Slug71 wrote:
B2707SST wrote:
Slug71 wrote:
I disagree.
It will take some investment to optimize. But in the 2030s when air travel is supposed to double, it will shine.


First, this has been Airbus' business case since the A3XX days of the late 1990s, but air traffic has nearly tripled since then and yet they've only managed to sell a few hundred A380s. The long-awaited 747-400 replacement cycle is nearly complete and the A380 has captured just a fraction of that market. With Airbus and Boeing cranking out widebodies at unprecedented rates, the question has to be "if not now, when?" This project is turning into aviation's version of nuclear fusion: it's always a decade away.

Second, the A380 is rapidly losing ground to smaller yet more efficient twinjets like the A350 and 787, and this is only going to get worse as time passes. The list of improvements the A380 needs to stay competitive - new higher-aspect ratio wing, smaller empennage, smaller landing gear, new engines, more CFRP construction, maybe a fuselage stretch - is so long and costly they might as well start from scratch. The resources Airbus would have to invest to save the platform would be much better spent on A350 derivatives in the meantime and, when and if the market ever truly calls for a VLA, a clean-sheet design that incorporates everything they've learned over the past 20+ years.


I agree. But airports weren't facing the congestion then that they will be going forward. I still think theres even a chance for the 747-8i to gain momentum again. At least I hope.
But I dont see Airbus or Boeing investing heavily in a clean sheet VLA anytime soon.

Which brings up another point. When does the rumor mill begin that EK is looking at the 747-8i? :lol:



777x is a vla. That's far more likely to get orders than an 748i resurgence
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 2:05 pm

Why so we have a separate thread for this? It's already being discussed at length in the other one.
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 2:21 pm

As I've said before, both A and B will have to hurt a little in order to gain a little. A will lose its biggest A380 customer; the writing will be on the wall. But they will gain a new A350 customer. B will lose a 78J order for more 77X orders.
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VV
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 2:31 pm

majano wrote:
VV wrote:
For the first time ever everyone seems to agree on the fate of the A380.

How many debates and disputes and words spent? Finally everybody agrees. It takes only 20 years to achieve this consensus.

Do you think there is consensus?


Does anyone have a different view on A380's fate?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 2:34 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
As I've said before, both A and B will have to hurt a little in order to gain a little. A will lose its biggest A380 customer; the writing will be on the wall. But they will gain a new A350 customer. B will lose a 78J order for more 77X orders.

If it plays out this way:

RR gets to wind down T900 production and sell more TXWBs

GE gets to book GE9x orders instead of having to compete GEnX against T-TEN.

The duo of duopolies in the wide body space rambles on unabated.
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 2:36 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
Why so we have a separate thread for this? It's already being discussed at length in the other one.

:checkmark:

Title of other thread should be adjusted and this one locked, IMHO.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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majano
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 2:56 pm

VV wrote:
majano wrote:
VV wrote:
For the first time ever everyone seems to agree on the fate of the A380.

How many debates and disputes and words spent? Finally everybody agrees. It takes only 20 years to achieve this consensus.

Do you think there is consensus?


Does anyone have a different view on A380's fate?

I stand corrected then... A380 fans (yours truly included) are in mourning.
 
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Erebus
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:04 pm

Kindanew wrote:
xwb565 wrote:
Kindanew wrote:
Leeham are reporting that Emirates have decided the 787-10 engines do not have the performance they require.



https://leehamnews.com/2019/02/04/ponti ... -emirates/


They would have had every iron clad performance and engine wing time guarantee before selecting the 787 so this does not add up.... The a359 has a better takeoff performance and theoretically more derates but EK should have been aware of this before they made their choice.


Unless they re evaluated what their performance requirements actually where in the first place.


I would tend to go with this.

At the time they made the decision, the 78J seemed perfect for their requirements. But I see hints that these requirements might have changed since. Not too long ago, Tim Clark was talking about needing to convert some of the 78J and 779 to the smaller variants to open up long distance secondary points which do not justify the use of 779s and A380s. So, maybe now they want to decide between a 789/78J combo or the A359.
And perhaps, the gap between the 78J and the A359 is not necessarily as big as we think. Tim Clark coloured himself impressed with an Airbus proposal that used 10 abreast economy and some other space creating arrangements but claimed that 'he didn't know about it' until it was too late to change their minds.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:20 pm

Revelation wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:
The T7000 or XWB engines are marginally more efficient than the T900.

7% isn't marginal, IMHO. STC shares that opinion. Then, there's the future PIPs it will get that T900 will never get, and commonality with T1000/TXWB/T7000 going forward. For RR, there's all those compensation payments it has to make because of T900. Killing T900 off would be a blessing for all involved.

JoeCanuck wrote:
Even if they were fitted to the 380, they would be a stopgap measure at best, while waiting for the NEO Mk2 using Ultrafans.

Yet the alternate for Airbus means forgetting about the oft-mentioned VLA surge in the 2020s (not to mention the entire VLA dream it's a part of) and for EK it means the end of A380 and its halo effect sooner rather than later (since they turn over their aircraft after 10-12 years).

JoeCanuck wrote:
The built in obsolescence of that model kills any business case.

Airbus made a bunch of decisions to ramp down and try to keep the model alive till the mid 2020s knowing they'd be losing money all along. If it was about not losing money they would have done what Boeing did with 757 and said "last call, get your orders in before we shut down", but they didn't. Clearly they had a larger strategic goal in mind.

JoeCanuck wrote:
In the meantime, the 380 continues to lose money with the added couple of billion of the shelf life limited NEO added to that.

Airbus signed the 20+18 contract with EK knowing they could not make money at the current production rate. It's hard to understand why they would do that but would not have agreed to a NEO in the 2014-6 time frame just as they were considering A330neo. Again, clearly they had a larger strategic goal in mind.

JoeCanuck wrote:
Optimistically, if Airbus started now, they might be able to begin producing a 380NEO by 2022.

This is where we agree -- the time to launch a NEO was 2014-6 not now. It would be coming out presumably some time this year. It would have killed off the T900 and the need to make compensation payments, especially if a retrofit kit could be found. It would have won the EK business and presumably a few more frames from a few of the loyalists such as SQ. It would have kept the infrastructure together to produce an enhanced A380 in the mid-late 2020s.

RIght now RR's financials do not permit anything strategic. All their spare change is going towards replacing T1000 blades, and it will do so for another year or two.

Finally winding down the A380 will leave whatever future VLA market exists to 779 which seems to be the exact opposite of Airbus strategy for the last several years. It's also going to cause a bunch of ugly write downs and RLA accelerations for Airbus to deal with. It's kind of Enders to take the hit before he leaves (if that's how things play out) but it'd mean that he'll forever be remembered as the man who killed the A380.


I agree with all this. However, I dont think the timing is terribly bad to do it now since the T7000 was just very recently certified. An end of the year delivery with T7000s should be possible if they began the work/certification soon.
 
JamesCousins
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:22 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
But Etihad has similar conditions and have 5 in its fleet already flying to places as far as MAN.


To be fair a 7 hour flight isn't really that far when the 78X can fly for well over 10 hours...
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, TUI, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE, X9, OLY // Upcoming: W6 A320, W6 A321, EVA 77W, VS 787-9m AS A320, VS A35K, KLM E190, KLM 738, LS 737
 
Vladex
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:25 pm

seahawk wrote:
Vladex wrote:
seahawk wrote:

Ultrafan would be a 2026 option. But how do you get the line to 2026?


2025 at the latest, the design is frozen and it has been developing for 5 years.


The design for a technology demonstrator is frozen, but that is a long way from an engine for the A380.


A and RR have signed a collaboration aggreement. They must be onto something.

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... labor.html
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:27 pm

Revelation wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:
The built in obsolescence of that model kills any business case.

Airbus made a bunch of decisions to ramp down and try to keep the model alive till the mid 2020s knowing they'd be losing money all along. If it was about not losing money they would have done what Boeing did with 757 and said "last call, get your orders in before we shut down", but they didn't. Clearly they had a larger strategic goal in mind.


This latest fiasco is the biggest test yet of how much Airbus believes in the vision that there will be a growing business case for VLAs on the whole as the skies get busier. It would benefit Airbus' bottom line to call it day and end A380 production, but if they wanted to pursue cost savings they could have done so a long time ago...
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, TUI, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE, X9, OLY // Upcoming: W6 A320, W6 A321, EVA 77W, VS 787-9m AS A320, VS A35K, KLM E190, KLM 738, LS 737
 
texl1649
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:30 pm

If you believe STC didn't know about the A359 seating options/proposals until it was too late, I have a bridge to sell you. This is a huge customer haggling with both of their aircraft vendors for the best possible deal on huge orders over 10 plus years, and that's it.

A.net likes to speculate about "best fit" from an engineering perspective but that's probably about 20 percent of the analysis in real terms: EK can adjust their routes/network to the cheapest net cost to buy new widebodies for their fleet knowing they need to ditch them/finance on 12 year terms. The 12 year lease term is, in truth, the death knell for their commitment to the 380, not anything else. It has basically no residual value for future purchases, as they're essentially the only customer. Their unique model, not the plane's economics or engine age or anything else, depends on good residual values. A359, 77x, and 78J all will have great residuals for purchases over the next 10 years.
 
JamesCousins
Posts: 484
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Re: EK considering 787 cancellation in favor of 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:31 pm

VSMUT wrote:
My guess:
The over ordered 777Xs and A380s. The 787-10 MOU was always about converting part of the 777X order to something more manageable, and the negotiations with Boeing somehow failed. Now it seems they are negotiating with Airbus to convert A380s to A350s, replacing the 787-10 in the role as the smaller wide-body at Emirates.


While EK does have massive amounts of capacity, it's important to remember that they are fundamentally slot restrained and the growing nature of their central hub model only increases demand on routes across the network. Maybe they'll convert the A380s down to A350s with far off delivery dates and defer the 777X deliveries to stint capacity growth in the short and medium term, but I just can't see that happening.
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, TUI, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE, X9, OLY // Upcoming: W6 A320, W6 A321, EVA 77W, VS 787-9m AS A320, VS A35K, KLM E190, KLM 738, LS 737
 
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American 767
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:53 pm

The ultra long range 778 or the A359 in the long range version like SQ has would be a good fit for routes like DXB-PER, DXB-AKL and DXB-YVR, just to name a few. If on one one of those routes the load factors are not high enough then the 78J would be the best fit.
Ben Soriano
 
VV
Posts: 1862
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:54 pm

majano wrote:
VV wrote:
majano wrote:
Do you think there is consensus?


Does anyone have a different view on A380's fate?

I stand corrected then... A380 fans (yours truly included) are in mourning.

There's no reason to mourn.

I am just astonished that so much emotion and energy was spent in here.

In the end everyone seems to agree that fewer than 400 (or is it 300?) A380 will have been built.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:16 pm

Vladex wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Vladex wrote:

2025 at the latest, the design is frozen and it has been developing for 5 years.


The design for a technology demonstrator is frozen, but that is a long way from an engine for the A380.


A and RR have signed a collaboration aggreement. They must be onto something.

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... labor.html


Yes, both participated in the European Clean Sky 2 program.
 
Strato2
Posts: 557
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:19 pm

majano wrote:
VV wrote:
For the first time ever everyone seems to agree on the fate of the A380.

How many debates and disputes and words spent? Finally everybody agrees. It takes only 20 years to achieve this consensus.

Do you think there is consensus?


No. Considering track record of "VV" in his blog the best bet is to take an opposite view. :D
 
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Stitch
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:19 pm

Well if 81,000 pounds of TOGA thrust is not enough to get a 254,000kg 787-10 into the air out of DXB than why are they looking at the A330-900? That airframe only has 73,000 pounds of TOGA thrust for 251,000kg.
 
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keesje
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:32 pm

The last time the A380 was nearly gone, a year ago, EK ordered 20+16. Apparently it was part of negotiations at the time.

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/airbus-a380-superjumbo-emirates-order-deal-new-saved-extinction-worlds-biggest-plane-dubai-airport-a8165651.html
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:38 pm

Stitch wrote:
Well if 81,000 pounds of TOGA thrust is not enough to get a 254,000kg 787-10 into the air out of DXB than why are they looking at the A330-900? That airframe only has 73,000 pounds of TOGA thrust for 251,000kg.


The Trent7000 and the Trent1000ten are identical apart from one providing more compressed air and the other more electricity. So if you can do 81 Klbs on one, you will be able to do it on the other.
But the A330 has the bigger wing, both regarding span and area.

AFAIK the 787 tops out at 76 Klbs. edit: the GEnx-1B76

edit: the T1000ten seems to do 81 Klbs.
Last edited by mjoelnir on Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
musman9853
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:39 pm

Jon ostrower seems very adamant that the a330neo is the aircraft that is being discussed, not the a350. If that is the case, how many a330neos would EK order to adequately cover the 40 78J?
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
texl1649
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:40 pm

Ostrower is standing by in his analysis that the A330NEO is favored vs. the A350 as part of the Airbus side reshuffling.

I'm suspicious it all has to do with pricing; as with when Boeing couldn't discount 737's to DL/UA below Airbus due to guarantees to AA that they'd have the best price net over a period in the US, I think Airbus has to keep pricing stable for the A350, and shuck A330NEO where/as they can.

For short term lift using RR it's pretty logical for EK. Remember, it's Airbus that will be under pressure to take the write down on the A380 program, even as their margins have paled by comparison to Boeing lately despite their narrow body advantage and labor efficiency. They also desperately need a tool/order(s) to sustain a 40 percent widebody production share through the mid-2020's (regardless of any NMA).
 
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Erebus
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:46 pm

texl1649 wrote:
If you believe STC didn't know about the A359 seating options/proposals until it was too late, I have a bridge to sell you. This is a huge customer haggling with both of their aircraft vendors for the best possible deal on huge orders over 10 plus years, and that's it.


Maybe it is true that he didn't know, or maybe not, that's why I used inverted comma's for his claim. It would be rather strange of him to haggle publicly after he's made his decision however.

But perhaps you will agree that if he did evaluate the said A359 option against the 78J, the competition would have been much closer than most here think. A new push for longer range destinations and better performance would probably close that gap completely.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:55 pm

Stitch wrote:
Well if 81,000 pounds of TOGA thrust is not enough to get a 254,000kg 787-10 into the air out of DXB than why are they looking at the A330-900? That airframe only has 73,000 pounds of TOGA thrust for 251,000kg.


Very well said.

Not only does this prove that people like Jon Ostrich-Egg are both wrong and stupid, there is absolutely no desire for EK to buy this a330neo like an oddball, poor seller like the a380.

Emirates probably won't want to be seen as the airline saving the a33neo like it has saved the A380. The financing risks too great for them to bare again.


Further, there isn't a shred of evidence inside EK stating that the A330neo is even being assessed - so either Ostrich-Egg is flat out lying, or he has bad 'sauces' or he is hoping for this fake deal to happen, which won't happen.

Thanks as always Stitch for bringing out facts. Salute to you.
 
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keesje
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Re: Emirates is exploring switching the Airbus A380 to A350

Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:01 pm

Kindanew wrote:
Leeham are reporting that Emirates have decided the 787-10 engines do not have the performance they require.

But Emirates’ interest in the A350 stems more from a realization the Boeing 787-10 won’t do the job the airline wants, according to the sideline conversation at the conference.


https://leehamnews.com/2019/02/04/ponti ... -emirates/


A reality fought hard against for years, by a large group on this forum. Wing loading, cargo capability (tons) US flights network flexibility come in too, if you are operating from a real hot hub. Unless you don't want to see.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Eyad89
Posts: 664
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:24 pm

Stitch wrote:
Well if 81,000 pounds of TOGA thrust is not enough to get a 254,000kg 787-10 into the air out of DXB than why are they looking at the A330-900? That airframe only has 73,000 pounds of TOGA thrust for 251,000kg.



The A339 has the bigger wing with a longer span and a lower span loading and wing loading. This should help.

I thought the 78X had 76,000 lbf of thrust?

Anyways, even with that, no one said that STC is ecstatic with A339 takeoff performance.
 
bobjones12345
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:24 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
Stitch wrote:
Well if 81,000 pounds of TOGA thrust is not enough to get a 254,000kg 787-10 into the air out of DXB than why are they looking at the A330-900? That airframe only has 73,000 pounds of TOGA thrust for 251,000kg.


Very well said.

Not only does this prove that people like Jon Ostrich-Egg are both wrong and stupid, there is absolutely no desire for EK to buy this a330neo like an oddball, poor seller like the a380.

Emirates probably won't want to be seen as the airline saving the a33neo like it has saved the A380. The financing risks too great for them to bare again.


Further, there isn't a shred of evidence inside EK stating that the A330neo is even being assessed - so either Ostrich-Egg is flat out lying, or he has bad 'sauces' or he is hoping for this fake deal to happen, which won't happen.

Thanks as always Stitch for bringing out facts. Salute to you.


There isn't much evidence of anything right now out of EK other than rumors.

The 330neo would be a cheap replacement for 78X if EK wants to just repurpose existing deposits with Airbus. They may not want the 350 at all as they've repeatedly rejected it. The 339 performs less efficiently but in terms of total cost it may be cheaper when you consider deposits. If they go that route it is a major slap in the face to the 350 program and Airbus that they won't take the newer plane.

But either way, this is a lot of churn over EK orders which aren't worth much on their face.

EK cancelling 78X MOUs to take 330n's would be a stopgap. If this airline wants lift, the 778 in that size class is the frame for them. The 779 they almost have to take to swap for their big fleet of 380s when those retire. The fuel burn numbers on the 779 as they test it out will dictate which direction EK and a lot of other airlines go. The 778 will outlift the 35K and 359 over any distance. If equal-payload fuel burn is competitive between the 778 and the 35K then this is a serious horserace.
 
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AECM
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:32 pm

A339NEO

Span: 64 m
Mean chord: 7.270 m
Area: 465 m2
AR: 8.8
Take-off thrust: 2 x 324.0 kN (Trent7000-72/C)

B78J

Span: 60.12 m
Mean chord: 6.27 m
Area: 377 m2
AR: 9.59
Take-off thrust: 2 x 357.6 kN (GEnx-1B78/P2) or x 360.4 kN (Trent 1000-R)

Edit reason: Updated take-off thrust according with EASA type rating.
Last edited by AECM on Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:48 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
Eyad89
Posts: 664
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:47 pm

Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:40 pm

AECM wrote:
A339NEO

Span: 64 m
Mean chord: 7.270 m
Area: 465 m2
AR: 8.8
Thrust: 2 x 324.0 kN / 72,834 lbf

B78J

Span: 60.12 m
Mean chord: 6.27 m
Area: 377 m2
AR: 9.59
Thrust: 2 x 340 kN / 76,000 lbf


Airbus and Boeing have different ways of calculating wing area. Boeing’s method gives a smaller area than Airbus’s method while measuring the same area. So it won’t be right comparing those numbers without using the same method.

AR should be (effective span)^2/ area. A339’s effective span should be more than 64m since it has a blended winglet. 78X’s effective span should be less than 60m since it has a raked wingtip.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:23 pm

So a Paris Air Show announcement, or sooner?
 
tealnz
Posts: 638
Joined: Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:47 am

Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:53 pm

Putting together the Ostrower and Leeham reports it's clear there's now an issue around the 78J summer performance out of Dubai. Leeham did a detailed analysis of the numbers before the original 78J MoU was announced and explained the issues around performance in the heat. Sounds as if that analysis might have been pretty solid.

We're seeing different accounts of whether it's the 359 or the 330neo that's now under consideration. Either is plausible. The 359 has the big wing and no shortage of thrust. It's heavier/more capable than what EK might want for a regional aircraft – but there's always the option of buying a regional variant, like SQ, in the knowledge there's thrust available to do eight to ten hour sectors with the payloads EK needs. The 330neo likewise has a big wing (= better takeoff performance) and a bit more headroom on thrust (because it's a smaller/lighter aircraft than the 78J). For an EK-sized order Airbus will also sharpen their pencil on price. And EK are already familiar with the aircraft. Wouldn't rule it out if EK want some cheap lift.

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