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rotating14
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:11 am

seabosdca wrote:
I'm quite surprised that the 339 was included in the order and can only imagine that near-term capacity needs in the absence of either planned A380 deliveries or available A350 slots drove it.


From the way it reads, the A350 half is for the A380 that won't be delivered and the A339 NEO is basically a stiff arm to the 787-10 MOU. Airbus achieves placing the A339 NEO with a new customer and it satisfies EKs regional needs while slowing the progress Boeing tried to make in getting EK as a new 787 operator. I personally don't think that the A339 NEO will be purchased though.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:31 am

rotating14 wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
I'm quite surprised that the 339 was included in the order and can only imagine that near-term capacity needs in the absence of either planned A380 deliveries or available A350 slots drove it.


From the way it reads, the A350 half is for the A380 that won't be delivered and the A339 NEO is basically a stiff arm to the 787-10 MOU. Airbus achieves placing the A339 NEO with a new customer and it satisfies EKs regional needs while slowing the progress Boeing tried to make in getting EK as a new 787 operator. I personally don't think that the A339 NEO will be purchased though.


Deliveries start in 2021, if they don't intend to purchase them then why have such an early start to deliveries? It makes very little sense.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:35 am

That early delivery date for the 339s is the reason I think they will actually take them. But I still wonder how they'll be financed and how long they'll last. EK was never in love with its 332s.
 
YellowJ
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:41 am

Finn350 wrote:
YellowJ wrote:
BlueSky1976 wrote:

...and yet not even 24 hours later.... BOOM! :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:



Riiight.
JetBlue and American Airlines may disagree on that one, right there. In fact, it was American Airlines who replaced 767s with A321s on their premium-heavy transcontinental runs out of JFK.


While reducing premium seats in AA case. What part of what he said was incorrect? Jetblue has nothing else to use, so isn't applicable.


AA A321 transcon is one of the most premium heavy configurations in existence with 10F / 20J / 72Y and more premium heavy than the 767 they replaced.


One of the most premium configurations today, yes. But it's predecessor had 9F/30J/128Y, so quite abit more premium seating for a older aircraft, so your quite incorrect there. Now that the market has fragmented, AA has reduced it's offerings. But I'm sure they're not thrilled about a 102 seat plane. DL seems to have no trouble with using larger aircraft. Perhaps this is why the MoM appears attractive to both. You get the fuel efficiency, but also more capacity for transcons than what is available today.
 
Flightsimboy
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:45 am

So did Emirates finally decide the A380 was not working for them and reduce the order and did this lead to Airbus cancelling the programme? Or did Airbus decide the A380 was not worth continuing production so it impacted Emirates' future orders. Or did both of them influence each others decision. The love affair between Emirates and the A380 unfortunately came to an end on no other day than Valentine's day. How tragic.

What is even strange that at one point Emirates cancelled it's A350 order and now have re-ordered them. And the fact they are taking the sexy A339 NEO is like taking a step back since they have already got rid of all their A332s. Something seems completely off here.
 
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Slug71
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:08 am

Flightsimboy wrote:
So did Emirates finally decide the A380 was not working for them and reduce the order and did this lead to Airbus cancelling the programme? Or did Airbus decide the A380 was not worth continuing production so it impacted Emirates' future orders. Or did both of them influence each others decision. The love affair between Emirates and the A380 unfortunately came to an end on no other day than Valentine's day. How tragic.

What is even strange that at one point Emirates cancelled it's A350 order and now have re-ordered them. And the fact they are taking the sexy A339 NEO is like taking a step back since they have already got rid of all their A332s. Something seems completely off here.


Probably a combination of things. EK and Airbus knew the A380 couldnt be competitive anymore. Just hanging new engines and maybe some winglets wouldn't help much longterm either. The design flaws were significant since it wasn't a base model. The cost to address all that, and the amount of redesign would more than likely justify a clean sheet. And it would need to be done. There was really no way around it. Hence EKs requests for a major update.
Airbus simply didn't have the cashflow to take all that on.
Especially with all the issues of the A400M too. It probably came down to the A380 or A400M. The A400M is finally starting to mature and needs significantly less design improvements.
 
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Finn350
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:52 am

YellowJ wrote:
Finn350 wrote:
YellowJ wrote:

While reducing premium seats in AA case. What part of what he said was incorrect? Jetblue has nothing else to use, so isn't applicable.


AA A321 transcon is one of the most premium heavy configurations in existence with 10F / 20J / 72Y and more premium heavy than the 767 they replaced.


One of the most premium configurations today, yes. But it's predecessor had 9F/30J/128Y, so quite abit more premium seating for a older aircraft, so your quite incorrect there. Now that the market has fragmented, AA has reduced it's offerings. But I'm sure they're not thrilled about a 102 seat plane. DL seems to have no trouble with using larger aircraft. Perhaps this is why the MoM appears attractive to both. You get the fuel efficiency, but also more capacity for transcons than what is available today.


As AA at the same time increased frequencies, they have more premium seating daily with the A321 than with the B767. And why wouldn't they be thrilled about a 102 seat plane?
 
YellowJ
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:08 pm

Finn350 wrote:
YellowJ wrote:
Finn350 wrote:

AA A321 transcon is one of the most premium heavy configurations in existence with 10F / 20J / 72Y and more premium heavy than the 767 they replaced.


One of the most premium configurations today, yes. But it's predecessor had 9F/30J/128Y, so quite abit more premium seating for a older aircraft, so your quite incorrect there. Now that the market has fragmented, AA has reduced it's offerings. But I'm sure they're not thrilled about a 102 seat plane. DL seems to have no trouble with using larger aircraft. Perhaps this is why the MoM appears attractive to both. You get the fuel efficiency, but also more capacity for transcons than what is available today.


As AA at the same time increased frequencies, they have more premium seating daily with the A321 than with the B767. And why wouldn't they be thrilled about a 102 seat plane?


They have a much more larger fleet of A321T. The 762 was only 12 or so frames, for both LA/SF. So apples and oranges is what your trying to compare with frequencies. You really think 102 seats is what AA is happy about sending on a transcon? Really? They might love the fuel efficiency over the old 762, but guaranteed if there is a plane made that can seat more and have better fuel economics, they would be looking hard at it. Enter MOM.
 
jagraham
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 15, 2019 6:51 pm

Finn350 wrote:
YellowJ wrote:
Finn350 wrote:

AA A321 transcon is one of the most premium heavy configurations in existence with 10F / 20J / 72Y and more premium heavy than the 767 they replaced.


One of the most premium configurations today, yes. But it's predecessor had 9F/30J/128Y, so quite abit more premium seating for a older aircraft, so your quite incorrect there. Now that the market has fragmented, AA has reduced it's offerings. But I'm sure they're not thrilled about a 102 seat plane. DL seems to have no trouble with using larger aircraft. Perhaps this is why the MoM appears attractive to both. You get the fuel efficiency, but also more capacity for transcons than what is available today.


As AA at the same time increased frequencies, they have more premium seating daily with the A321 than with the B767. And why wouldn't they be thrilled about a 102 seat plane?


102 seats into slot limited JFK? Between SFO and LAX there are 19 nonstops from JFK. 1938 passengers total one way. total f = 160. total j = 380

UA EWR SFO 11 nonstops 2 78J 44j 40pp 253y 2 772 intl 8f 40j 218y 7 752 28j 108y 2158
UA EWR LAX 10 nonstops 1 78J 44j 40pp 253y 1 772 domestic 28j 354y 8 752 28j 108y 1671
SFO + LAX = 3829 total f = 16 total j = 620

AA leaves a lot of money on the table using 102 seat planes. The only real advantage is 160 first class seats. UA has almost twice as much J with only 2 more flights.
 
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Richard28
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:23 pm

jagraham wrote:
102 seats into slot limited JFK? Between SFO and LAX there are 19 nonstops from JFK. 1938 passengers total one way. total f = 160. total j = 380

UA EWR SFO 11 nonstops 2 78J 44j 40pp 253y 2 772 intl 8f 40j 218y 7 752 28j 108y 2158
UA EWR LAX 10 nonstops 1 78J 44j 40pp 253y 1 772 domestic 28j 354y 8 752 28j 108y 1671
SFO + LAX = 3829 total f = 16 total j = 620

AA leaves a lot of money on the table using 102 seat planes. The only real advantage is 160 first class seats. UA has almost twice as much J with only 2 more flights.


or perhaps AA are flying with higher load factors, meeting actual demand more efficiently, making more profit, leaving out lower yielding Y class fares, and hoovering up lots of yield at the pointy end with a great product on a brand new plane?
 
airzona11
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:30 pm

jagraham wrote:
Finn350 wrote:
YellowJ wrote:

One of the most premium configurations today, yes. But it's predecessor had 9F/30J/128Y, so quite abit more premium seating for a older aircraft, so your quite incorrect there. Now that the market has fragmented, AA has reduced it's offerings. But I'm sure they're not thrilled about a 102 seat plane. DL seems to have no trouble with using larger aircraft. Perhaps this is why the MoM appears attractive to both. You get the fuel efficiency, but also more capacity for transcons than what is available today.


As AA at the same time increased frequencies, they have more premium seating daily with the A321 than with the B767. And why wouldn't they be thrilled about a 102 seat plane?


102 seats into slot limited JFK? Between SFO and LAX there are 19 nonstops from JFK. 1938 passengers total one way. total f = 160. total j = 380

UA EWR SFO 11 nonstops 2 78J 44j 40pp 253y 2 772 intl 8f 40j 218y 7 752 28j 108y 2158
UA EWR LAX 10 nonstops 1 78J 44j 40pp 253y 1 772 domestic 28j 354y 8 752 28j 108y 1671
SFO + LAX = 3829 total f = 16 total j = 620

AA leaves a lot of money on the table using 102 seat planes. The only real advantage is 160 first class seats. UA has almost twice as much J with only 2 more flights.


Leaving revenue on the table and leaving money on the table are not the same. AA is chasing the high yield. Not the volume. AA offers flights at all the times the high paying traffic wants. Different model.

Will be interesting to see if EK pivots to this as well. Less F class and more PY? More premium heavy planes or less premium to make the layouts denser?
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Fri Feb 15, 2019 10:43 pm

My reading of all of this is that EK and Airbus were looking for a way out of their mutual marriage to the A380. Airbus because John Leahy had departed and hence they were looking strictly at the financials, and EK because their load factors have started to decline and they realized that they cannot continue to grow at the same pace forever. I think, from what I have read, that EK are having doubts about the 7810s performance at Dubai, which is why the LOI was never made into an order. And the A330NEO was the best replacement. So it was definitely a mutual decision. And it is no coincidence that it happened literally days after JL finally departed.
 
Swadian
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:04 pm

YellowJ wrote:
Finn350 wrote:
YellowJ wrote:

While reducing premium seats in AA case. What part of what he said was incorrect? Jetblue has nothing else to use, so isn't applicable.


AA A321 transcon is one of the most premium heavy configurations in existence with 10F / 20J / 72Y and more premium heavy than the 767 they replaced.


One of the most premium configurations today, yes. But it's predecessor had 9F/30J/128Y, so quite abit more premium seating for a older aircraft, so your quite incorrect there. Now that the market has fragmented, AA has reduced it's offerings. But I'm sure they're not thrilled about a 102 seat plane. DL seems to have no trouble with using larger aircraft. Perhaps this is why the MoM appears attractive to both. You get the fuel efficiency, but also more capacity for transcons than what is available today.


The MOM doesn't appear attractive to AA, who just ordered a load more 788. All accounts suggest AA makes a killing off their A321T, and a lot more than the inefficient 762 did.
 
Swadian
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:06 pm

jagraham wrote:
Stitch wrote:
SQ22 wrote:
I also expect 777-8/-9 to have similar cabin layouts in J like A380, so less seats. Have there been any announcements about the cabin so far?


So far they have only noted that the two-class configuration will be 440 [49J | 391Y], which is 13 more than their two-class 777-300ERs at 427 [42J | 385Y].


EKs 77Ws have 2-3-2 business class. Versus 1-2-1 on the A380.

Perhaps the 779 will be outfitted A380 style (since they have the floor area) versus 77W style.


Lots of airlines already have 77W fitted with the same J seats EK uses on the A380.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:30 pm

seabosdca wrote:
I will be very curious to see how the 339s are financed. I can't imagine that EK wants to hold on to them for the long term, but resale value is likely to be a challenge (which affects either conventional or lease financing).


The same way most, if not all EK's current fleet is financed? Seriously, if EK can get financing for hundreds of A380s, they'll have no issue getting finance for A339s. The very fact that EK is now on board the A330neo will immediately make it more attractive to lessors.

seabosdca wrote:
I'm quite surprised that the 339 was included in the order and can only imagine that near-term capacity needs in the absence of either planned A380 deliveries or available A350 slots drove it.


Or, here's an off-the-wall thought - the A339 actually does a job that EK needs planes for and the 787-10 wasn't sufficiently better to make a difference? Nah, couldn't be that, could it? :scratchchin:

rotating14 wrote:
I personally don't think that the A339 NEO will be purchased though.


Based on anything other than hope? Deliveries start in two years - not much wiggle room there.
 
YellowJ
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:31 pm

Swadian wrote:
YellowJ wrote:
Finn350 wrote:

AA A321 transcon is one of the most premium heavy configurations in existence with 10F / 20J / 72Y and more premium heavy than the 767 they replaced.


One of the most premium configurations today, yes. But it's predecessor had 9F/30J/128Y, so quite abit more premium seating for a older aircraft, so your quite incorrect there. Now that the market has fragmented, AA has reduced it's offerings. But I'm sure they're not thrilled about a 102 seat plane. DL seems to have no trouble with using larger aircraft. Perhaps this is why the MoM appears attractive to both. You get the fuel efficiency, but also more capacity for transcons than what is available today.


The MOM doesn't appear attractive to AA, who just ordered a load more 788. All accounts suggest AA makes a killing off their A321T, and a lot more than the inefficient 762 did.



788 was ordered for significantly different missions as it is a 763 replacement and has been from the start. Everyone makes a killing on NY->California (except Virgin), that wasn't what was being discussed so not sure why you brought it up. If you think AA is not looking at something that has more fuel efficiency than the A321T and offers greater passenger capacity, then I don't know what to tell you.
 
Arion640
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:40 pm

scbriml wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
I will be very curious to see how the 339s are financed. I can't imagine that EK wants to hold on to them for the long term, but resale value is likely to be a challenge (which affects either conventional or lease financing).


The same way most, if not all EK's current fleet is financed? Seriously, if EK can get financing for hundreds of A380s, they'll have no issue getting finance for A339s. The very fact that EK is now on board the A330neo will immediately make it more attractive to lessors.

seabosdca wrote:
I'm quite surprised that the 339 was included in the order and can only imagine that near-term capacity needs in the absence of either planned A380 deliveries or available A350 slots drove it.


Or, here's an off-the-wall thought - the A339 actually does a job that EK needs planes for and the 787-10 wasn't sufficiently better to make a difference? Nah, couldn't be that, could it? :scratchchin:

rotating14 wrote:
I personally don't think that the A339 NEO will be purchased though.


Based on anything other than hope? Deliveries start in two years - not much wiggle room there.


Emirates are clearly desperate for a smaller middle of the road aircraft to pick up where its A330/A340/772 fleet left off a few years back now. Wasn’t 787-10 delivery in something like 2025? Quite a long time to wait.

I can certainly see the A330neo’s being delivered. Cheap and fast.
 
JamesCousins
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:51 pm

scbriml wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
I'm quite surprised that the 339 was included in the order and can only imagine that near-term capacity needs in the absence of either planned A380 deliveries or available A350 slots drove it.


Or, here's an off-the-wall thought - the A339 actually does a job that EK needs planes for and the 787-10 wasn't sufficiently better to make a difference? Nah, couldn't be that, could it? :scratchchin:


Hallelujah! Posters in this thread (and forum as a whole tbh) need to get this idea that the A330neo is somehow a sub standard aircraft out of their head. Has it sold as well as the 787 or A350 thus far? No. Would I rather be in a 787 or A350? Probably. But airlines such as AirAsia, Delta & TAP haven't ordered the frame in large quantities because of some abstract romance to A330, they've ordered it because it does what the need at economics they're happy with.

If the A330neo has better hot and high performance than the 787-10, it's surely a win for both parties?

Then again Airbus is giving them away, what was it last time? $500,000 a frame :lol: :lol:

*rant over*
 
ramzi
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 1:11 am

JamesCousins wrote:
scbriml wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
I'm quite surprised that the 339 was included in the order and can only imagine that near-term capacity needs in the absence of either planned A380 deliveries or available A350 slots drove it.


Or, here's an off-the-wall thought - the A339 actually does a job that EK needs planes for and the 787-10 wasn't sufficiently better to make a difference? Nah, couldn't be that, could it? :scratchchin:


Hallelujah! Posters in this thread (and forum as a whole tbh) need to get this idea that the A330neo is somehow a sub standard aircraft out of their head. Has it sold as well as the 787 or A350 thus far? No. Would I rather be in a 787 or A350? Probably. But airlines such as AirAsia, Delta & TAP haven't ordered the frame in large quantities because of some abstract romance to A330, they've ordered it because it does what the need at economics they're happy with.

If the A330neo has better hot and high performance than the 787-10, it's surely a win for both parties?

Then again Airbus is giving them away, what was it last time? $500,000 a frame :lol: :lol:

*rant over*


The A339 situation seems pretty simple. They can get it sooner than the 78J, it meets their needs and has enough commonality with the A380 and the A350 for it to work for EK. I don't know if this plays a role at all, but they retired the last A332 just over two years ago, so it is not an unfamiliar type to them. The 78J, on the other hand, is completely new and unfamiliar, available much later than they need, and more expensive. The chain of events will remain unknown to the public--did the A380 cancellations prompt them to switch to the A339, did they use the 78J order to pressure Airbus into a better deal, or did they simply not make a final decision until a few days go?

After all, the order could have been for only A350s, or only A330s, I doubt the distribution of orders between the two types was arbitrary or sudden.
 
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Erebus
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 3:02 am

Arion640 wrote:
Emirates are clearly desperate for a smaller middle of the road aircraft to pick up where its A330/A340/772 fleet left off a few years back now. Wasn’t 787-10 delivery in something like 2025? Quite a long time to wait.

I can certainly see the A330neo’s being delivered. Cheap and fast.


The 787 deliveries were to start from 2022. So the A330neo arrival is not that much sooner being set for 2021.
 
neutronstar73
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 3:13 am

scbriml wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
I'm quite surprised that the 339 was included in the order and can only imagine that near-term capacity needs in the absence of either planned A380 deliveries or available A350 slots drove it.


Or, here's an off-the-wall thought - the A339 actually does a job that EK needs planes for and the 787-10 wasn't sufficiently better to make a difference? Nah, couldn't be that, could it? :scratchchin:

.


Or here's a not-so-off-the-wall thought: CONTRACT RENEGOTIATION IN LIEU OF CANCELLATION OF A380 ORDER.

Nah....couldn't be that, either. Also doesn't preclude that the A330NEO works for them, nor does it say that the 787-10 WON'T be on property, either.....

But your argument doesn't make any sense. The A339 was around when they made the MoU with Boeing for the 787, and EK certainly had the papers on the 787-10 when they decided to go for it.....so obviously the 787-10 had ENOUGH of a performance difference (whether price or pure performance) to outgun both the A350 and A339 for the mission sets they devised, and win a tender that should've been Airbus's to win in the first place.

It isn't like the 787-10 has changed at all since the MoU.
 
PHLspecial
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 7:17 am

I'm not sure if this was mentioned in the thread but doesn't the A330NEO and the A350 have similar type ratings? I think it be would part of Airbuses selling point as well
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 7:55 am

The really really big win for Airbus here is that EK has validated the A330neo as a competitor to the B787.

That is a big boost for the 330neo in future contests. Boeing tried to strangle the 330neo at birth (the HA deal for example) because it knows its strengths, and the EK deal means they failed.
 
jeffrey0032j
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 8:21 am

JerseyFlyer wrote:
The really really big win for Airbus here is that EK has validated the A330neo as a competitor to the B787.

That is a big boost for the 330neo in future contests. Boeing tried to strangle the 330neo at birth (the HA deal for example) because it knows its strengths, and the EK deal means they failed.

It only happened because EK had to avoid the A380 cancellation penalties.
 
Swadian
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Sat Feb 16, 2019 8:30 am

YellowJ wrote:
Swadian wrote:
YellowJ wrote:

One of the most premium configurations today, yes. But it's predecessor had 9F/30J/128Y, so quite abit more premium seating for a older aircraft, so your quite incorrect there. Now that the market has fragmented, AA has reduced it's offerings. But I'm sure they're not thrilled about a 102 seat plane. DL seems to have no trouble with using larger aircraft. Perhaps this is why the MoM appears attractive to both. You get the fuel efficiency, but also more capacity for transcons than what is available today.


The MOM doesn't appear attractive to AA, who just ordered a load more 788. All accounts suggest AA makes a killing off their A321T, and a lot more than the inefficient 762 did.



788 was ordered for significantly different missions as it is a 763 replacement and has been from the start. Everyone makes a killing on NY->California (except Virgin), that wasn't what was being discussed so not sure why you brought it up. If you think AA is not looking at something that has more fuel efficiency than the A321T and offers greater passenger capacity, then I don't know what to tell you.


The A321T has tremendous fuel efficiency and optimized capacity. There is utterly no evidence to suggest AA is "looking at something that has more fuel efficiency than the A321T and offers greater passenger capacity".
 
Swadian
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 8:33 am

JerseyFlyer wrote:
The really really big win for Airbus here is that EK has validated the A330neo as a competitor to the B787.

That is a big boost for the 330neo in future contests. Boeing tried to strangle the 330neo at birth (the HA deal for example) because it knows its strengths, and the EK deal means they failed.


I don't believe Boeing tried to strangle the A330neo at birth, any more than they wanted HA on board as a new customer, nor any more than HA wanted out of the A338 order anyway.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 8:38 am

neutronstar73 wrote:
But your argument doesn't make any sense. The A339 was around when they made the MoU with Boeing for the 787, and EK certainly had the papers on the 787-10 when they decided to go for it.....so obviously the 787-10 had ENOUGH of a performance difference (whether price or pure performance) to outgun both the A350 and A339 for the mission sets they devised, and win a tender that should've been Airbus's to win in the first place.


It wouldn't make sense to anyone who can't see the wood for the trees. But here's another thought, given the way Emirate's treated Airbus in 2017, was the whole decision to go with the 787-10 simply a stalking horse? :scratchchin:

In what way was the 2017 'order' Airbus's to lose? I doubt you can find anyone outside a.net who thought the 787-10 would lose.

neutronstar73 wrote:
It isn't like the 787-10 has changed at all since the MoU.


But both the A330neo and A350 have! :wink2:

jeffrey0032j wrote:
It only happened because EK had to avoid the A380 cancellation penalties.


The why is irrelevant, the end result is what matters.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Sat Feb 16, 2019 8:47 am

seabosdca wrote:
That early delivery date for the 339s is the reason I think they will actually take them. But I still wonder how they'll be financed and how long they'll last. EK was never in love with its 332s.

Now that is just making things up.

EK was built on the back of the A332 fleet for midhaul sectors. The aircraft were kept for the amount of life planned by Emirates. They were excellent hard working aircraft. One major reason for rolling the fleet over was a need to update the onboard product as the A332 was of its time and looking dated.

Or are you suggesting EK equally doesn't like its 777 fleet?
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 8:48 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
The really really big win for Airbus here is that EK has validated the A330neo as a competitor to the B787.

That is a big boost for the 330neo in future contests. Boeing tried to strangle the 330neo at birth (the HA deal for example) because it knows its strengths, and the EK deal means they failed.

It only happened because EK had to avoid the A380 cancellation penalties.


Unless that narrative has been proven, I doubt it.

Airbus benefits greatly from the cancellation of the 380 program. Every aircraft was produced at a loss, and the loss was not only getting bigger in total, the loss per aircraft was undoubtedly increasing as production rates were dropping.

If EK decided that it wanted all of the planes it ordered, Airbus would have had another decade of ever increasing losses...not that there was much danger of that. With the plane not meeting spec, (which it never would since RR nixed any more PIP's), EK could have bailed without penalty anyway.

Airbus and Emirates both benefited from the cancellation of the 380 and came up with a win/win deal.

If Airbus would have threatened any cancellation charges, EK could have really screwed Airbus by going all Boeing. As it is, this deal indicates that Airbus and EK put on their big boy pants, negotiated like grown ups and came to a mutually satisfactory agreement.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 9:03 am

JoeCanuck wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
The really really big win for Airbus here is that EK has validated the A330neo as a competitor to the B787.

That is a big boost for the 330neo in future contests. Boeing tried to strangle the 330neo at birth (the HA deal for example) because it knows its strengths, and the EK deal means they failed.

It only happened because EK had to avoid the A380 cancellation penalties.


Unless that narrative has been proven, I doubt it.

Airbus benefits greatly from the cancellation of the 380 program. Every aircraft was produced at a loss, and the loss was not only getting bigger in total, the loss per aircraft was undoubtedly increasing as production rates were dropping.

If EK decided that it wanted all of the planes it ordered, Airbus would have had another decade of ever increasing losses...not that there was much danger of that. With the plane not meeting spec, (which it never would since RR nixed any more PIP's), EK could have bailed without penalty anyway.

Airbus and Emirates both benefited from the cancellation of the 380 and came up with a win/win deal.

If Airbus would have threatened any cancellation charges, EK could have really screwed Airbus by going all Boeing. As it is, this deal indicates that Airbus and EK put on their big boy pants, negotiated like grown ups and came to a mutually satisfactory agreement.

Yes, but that doesn't prove that EK chosing the 330neo has shown that Boeing has failed or is a great boost for the A330neo in future contests.

Other airlines may still see it as a compensation deal, as you have said, for both EK and Airbus to get a win-win deal. The A330neo was chosen mainly to achieve this win-win deal, therefore, instead of actually being the first choice of EK, it was more of a concession. If it was the first choice, they wouldn't had rejected the A350 Mk I (which is essentially an A330neo with GE engines) and panned over the A330neo few years back.

Aside from the rumors, however strong and possible they maybe, the 787 MOU at this stage is still in place. And since EK is now done with negotiating with Airbus, I expect that they are doing the same to Boeing regarding their orders. And whatever comes out of the negotiations is a topic for another day.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 9:23 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
It only happened because EK had to avoid the A380 cancellation penalties.


Unless that narrative has been proven, I doubt it.

Airbus benefits greatly from the cancellation of the 380 program. Every aircraft was produced at a loss, and the loss was not only getting bigger in total, the loss per aircraft was undoubtedly increasing as production rates were dropping.

If EK decided that it wanted all of the planes it ordered, Airbus would have had another decade of ever increasing losses...not that there was much danger of that. With the plane not meeting spec, (which it never would since RR nixed any more PIP's), EK could have bailed without penalty anyway.

Airbus and Emirates both benefited from the cancellation of the 380 and came up with a win/win deal.

If Airbus would have threatened any cancellation charges, EK could have really screwed Airbus by going all Boeing. As it is, this deal indicates that Airbus and EK put on their big boy pants, negotiated like grown ups and came to a mutually satisfactory agreement.

Yes, but that doesn't prove that EK chosing the 330neo has shown that Boeing has failed or is a great boost for the A330neo in future contests.

Other airlines may still see it as a compensation deal, as you have said, for both EK and Airbus to get a win-win deal. The A330neo was chosen mainly to achieve this win-win deal, therefore, instead of actually being the first choice of EK, it was more of a concession. If it was the first choice, they wouldn't had rejected the A350 Mk I (which is essentially an A330neo with GE engines) and panned over the A330neo few years back.

Aside from the rumors, however strong and possible they maybe, the 787 MOU at this stage is still in place. And since EK is now done with negotiating with Airbus, I expect that they are doing the same to Boeing regarding their orders. And whatever comes out of the negotiations is a topic for another day.


Raw specs are only one parameter in a complex business decision that will have ramifications for decades to come. Whatever aircraft they choose, EK, (and most successful airlines), will choose the equipment that will best serve them in the long run.

What the inclusion of the 330 tells me, (my guess was that neither the 330 or the 787 would be chosen), is that EK considers the 330 and the 787 close enough to even on specs as to make it a coin toss, with other considerations influencing the final decision...in this case, streamlining the cancellation of the 380.

Look at the fuss EK made over a few percentage of efficiency points on the RR engines. If performance was an issue, Tim Clark would simply not have ordered the 330.

I think the 350 and 330 will cover whatever tasks the 787 would have performed but they may pad their 77X order.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 9:28 am

JoeCanuck wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
JoeCanuck wrote:

Unless that narrative has been proven, I doubt it.

Airbus benefits greatly from the cancellation of the 380 program. Every aircraft was produced at a loss, and the loss was not only getting bigger in total, the loss per aircraft was undoubtedly increasing as production rates were dropping.

If EK decided that it wanted all of the planes it ordered, Airbus would have had another decade of ever increasing losses...not that there was much danger of that. With the plane not meeting spec, (which it never would since RR nixed any more PIP's), EK could have bailed without penalty anyway.

Airbus and Emirates both benefited from the cancellation of the 380 and came up with a win/win deal.

If Airbus would have threatened any cancellation charges, EK could have really screwed Airbus by going all Boeing. As it is, this deal indicates that Airbus and EK put on their big boy pants, negotiated like grown ups and came to a mutually satisfactory agreement.

Yes, but that doesn't prove that EK chosing the 330neo has shown that Boeing has failed or is a great boost for the A330neo in future contests.

Other airlines may still see it as a compensation deal, as you have said, for both EK and Airbus to get a win-win deal. The A330neo was chosen mainly to achieve this win-win deal, therefore, instead of actually being the first choice of EK, it was more of a concession. If it was the first choice, they wouldn't had rejected the A350 Mk I (which is essentially an A330neo with GE engines) and panned over the A330neo few years back.

Aside from the rumors, however strong and possible they maybe, the 787 MOU at this stage is still in place. And since EK is now done with negotiating with Airbus, I expect that they are doing the same to Boeing regarding their orders. And whatever comes out of the negotiations is a topic for another day.


Raw specs are only one parameter in a complex business decision that will have ramifications for decades to come. Whatever aircraft they choose, EK, (and most successful airlines), will choose the equipment that will best serve them in the long run.

What the inclusion of the 330 tells me, (my guess was that neither the 330 or the 787 would be chosen), is that EK considers the 330 and the 787 close enough to even on specs as to make it a coin toss, with other considerations influencing the final decision...in this case, streamlining the cancellation of the 380.

Look at the fuss EK made over a few percentage of efficiency points on the RR engines. If performance was an issue, Tim Clark would simply not have ordered the 330.

I think the 350 and 330 will cover whatever tasks the 787 would have performed but they may pad their 77X order.

Remember they also had to make a deal with RR for those A380s that have been cancelled. Also, there is no other engine option for Airbus widebodies, it is all RR.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 12:05 pm

If EK didn't want the A339, they could have ordered only A359s. I think while the A339s are not able to claim the price advantage as much as Airbus hoped due to 789 cost reduction, it still looks attractive against A359 or 787-10 which is expensive since Boeing haven't had a reason to lower the price to compete with anything else. With a larger wing for more lift at Dubai and 30-40 fewer seats to fill, the A339 has its own niche for smaller airports within 8 hours. Yes, 789 is slightly more efficient than A339 but A330 pilots can be type rated to A350 in eight days.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 1:10 pm

What is so shocking about this thread versus the numerous A380 threads we had prior to its cancellation is how easy A380 / EK supporters now dismiss the A380. If one goes and revisit those threads, the support for the A380 / EK relationiship reached such great heights of symbiosis which could never be broken regardless of what competition came along or the numerous financial figures shown.

I guess the point I am making is that we should not be so fervent in our fan boy support that logic gets turned on its head.
EK ceased using A330's, EK cancelled A350 order, EK did not order A339 when they could have, instead going for 787-10 LOI, now that the A380 is cancelled and the A350 and A339 are ordered, it is suddenly because those are and where the best a/c for their needs.
I would be suspect of an airline management who just did the above believing that they know what is best for their business.

My opinion is that the financials have finally caught up with all parties concerned with the A380, and since EK was the largest operator it came down to EK, Airbus and RR.
My other point in another thread, time will tell which OEM engine supplier will support their engine longer, RR or EA, that I think will determine how much longer the A380 will grace the skies offering the faithfull a chance to ride on the frame.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Sat Feb 16, 2019 2:53 pm

seabosdca wrote:
That early delivery date for the 339s is the reason I think they will actually take them. But I still wonder how they'll be financed and how long they'll last. EK was never in love with its 332s.

The missing love for the A332 was EK´s fault to be honest and their strategy to fly the biggest planes of all airlines. The A332 was a perfect route opener, reasonable size, easy to handle for every airport and very flexible in the network. With the A380s on way out, EK needed something smaller than 787-1000, especially if you consider the options TK and QR have available through their narrowbody fleet.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 3:23 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
The really really big win for Airbus here is that EK has validated the A330neo as a competitor to the B787.

I don't view it as validation. It cost the abandonment of the A380 dream and the VLA market to the 77X, a dreadful PR showing on Valentine's Day, the write off of another EUR 463M on the program, and job impact for 3,500 workers just to fill A330neo slots that lessors weren't able to fill on their own. Let's see it win some campaigns without the thumb on the scale before we say it is validated.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 3:44 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
The really really big win for Airbus here is that EK has validated the A330neo as a competitor to the B787.

That is a big boost for the 330neo in future contests. Boeing tried to strangle the 330neo at birth (the HA deal for example) because it knows its strengths, and the EK deal means they failed.

It only happened because EK had to avoid the A380 cancellation penalties.

They could have just taken more A350's instead, so your statement doesn't hold water. EK clearly thinks the 330NEO is a good aircraft
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 3:48 pm

Revelation wrote:
Yeah, all it cost was abandonment of the A380 dream and the VLA market to the 77X


That dream had become a loss-making nightmare. Reality has bitten. It's over. Airbus and EK have already moved on, seems a.net might be struggling.

Yet many folks are insisting the VLA market is already dead. Is the 779 not exit limited to the same passenger count as the A35K?

Revelation wrote:
the write off of another EUR 463M on the program


And how much would Airbus have lost if it had built all the A380s EK had on order? And it would still face one-off costs associated with shutting down the line (as happens whenever one is shutdown).

par13del wrote:
What is so shocking about this thread versus the numerous A380 threads we had prior to its cancellation is how easy A380 / EK supporters now dismiss the A380.


One can like a product, be a fan of it and live in hope. Eventually reality may set in. If you're left with lemons...
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 3:51 pm

Revelation wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
The really really big win for Airbus here is that EK has validated the A330neo as a competitor to the B787.

I don't view it as validation. It cost the abandonment of the A380 dream and the VLA market to the 77X, a dreadful PR showing on Valentine's Day, the write off of another EUR 463M on the program, and job impact for 3,500 workers just to fill A330neo slots that lessors weren't able to fill on their own. Let's see it win some campaigns without the thumb on the scale before we say it is validated.


Imho the MoU were linked and it makes sense. If your number of A380s shrinks, your capacity need for your regional feeder aircraft shrinks as well.

When the long term planning went from

A380 - 777-9 (mostly) - 787-100

777-9 - A359 - A339

it kind of makes sense.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 3:55 pm

ER757 wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
The really really big win for Airbus here is that EK has validated the A330neo as a competitor to the B787.

That is a big boost for the 330neo in future contests. Boeing tried to strangle the 330neo at birth (the HA deal for example) because it knows its strengths, and the EK deal means they failed.

It only happened because EK had to avoid the A380 cancellation penalties.

They could have just taken more A350's instead, so your statement doesn't hold water. EK clearly thinks the 330NEO is a good aircraft

By such logic, clearly EK thinks A380 is a bad aircraft since it just canceled 35 firm orders worth $15B at list price, right? Or maybe there is more to it?

Airbus is not highly motivated to shift A350s since it has no slots to offer till much later and a huge backlog to fill, while Airbus is highly motivated to shift A330neos since lessors are not placing them as planned even with a year delay in the schedule and are asking to defer deliveries. Therefore EK could not have simply asked for A350s unless it was willing to spend more and wait longer.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 4:02 pm

par13del wrote:
What is so shocking about this thread versus the numerous A380 threads we had prior to its cancellation is how easy A380 / EK supporters now dismiss the A380. If one goes and revisit those threads, the support for the A380 / EK relationiship reached such great heights of symbiosis which could never be broken regardless of what competition came along or the numerous financial figures shown.

I guess the point I am making is that we should not be so fervent in our fan boy support that logic gets turned on its head.
EK ceased using A330's, EK cancelled A350 order, EK did not order A339 when they could have, instead going for 787-10 LOI, now that the A380 is cancelled and the A350 and A339 are ordered, it is suddenly because those are and where the best a/c for their needs.
I would be suspect of an airline management who just did the above believing that they know what is best for their business.

My opinion is that the financials have finally caught up with all parties concerned with the A380, and since EK was the largest operator it came down to EK, Airbus and RR.
My other point in another thread, time will tell which OEM engine supplier will support their engine longer, RR or EA, that I think will determine how much longer the A380 will grace the skies offering the faithfull a chance to ride on the frame.

The issue is the turbine blades. For EA, MTU makes them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Engine_Alliance_GP7000
I suspect they'll keep making small batches for years. Since Safran makes the low compressor, they have a history of good support at low volume.

Bummer for RR the core is the T500 core (retiring A345/A346) which gives poor economy of scale.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_Trent_900

That said, support should be profitable (at least once RR gets out of the penalty period) for both engine vendors.. Profitable support lasts a *long* time.

What a trip down memory lane when a pressure ration of 43.9:1 was high (GP7200) or 39:1 for the T900. (GE90 is 42:1, GE9X is an amazing 60:1 vers Txwb at 50:1, notice the trend of RR optimizing at lower pressure ratios? )
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 4:20 pm

scbriml wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Yeah, all it cost was abandonment of the A380 dream and the VLA market to the 77X

That dream had become a loss-making nightmare. Reality has bitten. It's over. Airbus and EK have already moved on, seems a.net might be struggling.

Yes, well, it was only a year ago when we were being told that EK's order for 20+18 secured production for A380 through 2025 and beyond, then we'd have an A380neo with UltraFan that would become the aircraft of choice to move people on crowded Chinese airways. When some of us pointed out China also would reject the A380 and there was no engine deal signed month after month we were pretty much ignored if not insulted. Threads pointing out the problems were stomped on by threads seeing the inevitable choice of RR for the engine vendor even as the deal remained unsigned month after month. The reality you now embrace was so far beyond many people's imaginations even as the evidence was being laid out in front of them.

The common thread back then was that the A380's success was inevitable, and now the common thread is denial that the A380 failure has anything to do with placing the A330neo at EK. Instead the placement of A330neo at EK is being spun a validation of the A330neo program.

Yet the news is that the lessors were asking for deferrals on the A330neos even after having an unexpected extra year to place them, and the A330 production line rate is being cut. It's one almighty spin to say filling unexpectedly empty slots is a validation of the A330neo program.

Personally I'm a fan of the A330neo and am glad some one will be putting them to good use, but to spin this into validation is absurd, IMHO.

To stretch your analogy, rotten lemons are getting turned into fetid lemonade, but if you add enough sugar someone gullible might be able to stomach it.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 5:28 pm

JamesCousins wrote:
Has it sold as well as the 787 or A350 thus far? No.

At least the A339 has sold better than the 787-10. Despite being launched later.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 5:38 pm

rheinwaldner wrote:
JamesCousins wrote:
Has it sold as well as the 787 or A350 thus far? No.

At least the A339 has sold better than the 787-10. Despite being launched later.


The A339 competes with the 787-9, not the 787-10.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 5:49 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
The really really big win for Airbus here is that EK has validated the A330neo as a competitor to the B787.

That is a big boost for the 330neo in future contests. Boeing tried to strangle the 330neo at birth (the HA deal for example) because it knows its strengths, and the EK deal means they failed.

It only happened because EK had to avoid the A380 cancellation penalties.

It still improves the A330NEO economy of scale.

We can debate why. But we must be realistic on impacts. The A330NEO needed time.

The 787-10 needs a range extending PIP. More precisely, they need to use that gloriously huge cargo hold, so weight at range. I'm not writing off the 787-10 at EK yet. This round is a win for Airbus IMHO, but nothing is forever in Aviation.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:12 pm

lightsaber wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
The really really big win for Airbus here is that EK has validated the A330neo as a competitor to the B787.

That is a big boost for the 330neo in future contests. Boeing tried to strangle the 330neo at birth (the HA deal for example) because it knows its strengths, and the EK deal means they failed.

It only happened because EK had to avoid the A380 cancellation penalties.

It still improves the A330NEO economy of scale.

I think we can say that once we see the A330 production rate increase significantly. Till that happens I think the idea that this order is filling slots that lessors haven't been able to fill holds a lot of water. Airbus has done a lot of things to make its less successful product lines appear to have traction. We just saw the Amedeo A380 orders that were firmly ensconced on their order books for many years finally get cancelled this week. I could easily Airbus clam "orders" with lessors in the books with them being contingent on being able to place them later for A330neo just like they did for A380. As you pointed out in another thread, things that used to be options are not being called orders. We can't apply old standards to modern times. We are well in to the "show me the money" era now.

lightsaber wrote:
The 787-10 needs a range extending PIP. More precisely, they need to use that gloriously huge cargo hold, so weight at range. I'm not writing off the 787-10 at EK yet. This round is a win for Airbus IMHO, but nothing is forever in Aviation.

Indeed, time will tell how this all plays out. Nothing is for certain when EK is in the frame.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:15 pm

lightsaber wrote:
(GE90 is 42:1, GE9X is an amazing 60:1 vers Txwb at 50:1, notice the trend of RR optimizing at lower pressure ratios? )




60:1 is certainly amazing for the GE9X, yes...what is less amazing is that the engine is (slightly) heavier than its predecessor GE90-115B while producing about 10% less thrust...due the lesser number of heavier fan blades requiring more containment structure...as well the very high compression ratio requiring stronger casings...

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1379051


Faro
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:23 pm

lightsaber wrote:
My opinion is that the financials have finally caught up with all parties concerned with the A380, and since EK was the largest operator it came down to EK, Airbus and RR.
My other point in another thread, time will tell which OEM engine supplier will support their engine longer, RR or EA, that I think will determine how much longer the A380 will grace the skies offering the faithfull a chance to ride on the frame.

The issue is the turbine blades. For EA, MTU makes them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Engine_Alliance_GP7000
I suspect they'll keep making small batches for years. Since Safran makes the low compressor, they have a history of good support at low volume.

Bummer for RR the core is the T500 core (retiring A345/A346) which gives poor economy of scale.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_Trent_900

That said, support should be profitable (at least once RR gets out of the penalty period) for both engine vendors.. Profitable support lasts a *long* time.[/quote]
Won't be the turbine blades alone that determine the engine support period.

Early EK A380 deliveries had comprehensive engine maintenance contracts of 5+5+5 years. Later EA, and all RR contracts had 15 year, fixed price contracts, part of a package of features to incentivise leasors and financiers.

In theory, RR support commitment runs out for EK in 2036 and EA in 2032, though nothing to stop either buying their way out early.

EA communicated with it's customers regarding ongoing support last year, and RR last week.
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:27 pm

Revelation wrote:
Yes, well, it was only a year ago when we were being told that EK's order for 20+18 secured production for A380 through 2025 and beyond, then we'd have an A380neo with UltraFan that would become the aircraft of choice to move people on crowded Chinese airways.


Not one word of which was uttered by Airbus themselves. If you're taking a.netter's word as gospel, I have a bridge you may be interested in. :wink2:
 
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Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible

Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:29 pm

Faro wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
(GE90 is 42:1, GE9X is an amazing 60:1 vers Txwb at 50:1, notice the trend of RR optimizing at lower pressure ratios? )

60:1 is certainly amazing for the GE9X, yes...what is less amazing is that the engine is (slightly) heavier than its predecessor GE90-115B while producing about 10% less thrust...due the lesser number of heavier fan blades requiring more containment structure...as well the very high compression ratio requiring stronger casings...

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1379051

Faro

Retort: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1415467&p=21101015#p21097067

Bigger fan means moving more air (square relationship), lower drag wing means less thrust required, end result is optimized for long range cruise SFC at the expense of weight.

If it were better to have kept the lower weight and higher thrust and higher fan blade count of GE90 and played just with materials and airfoils they would have just done that and saved themselves a lot of money.

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