Themotionman
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Re: OAG Changes 2/3/2019: AA;B6;UA;WN;XE Adds TRM;Swoop Routes;

Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:26 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
AA has decided that it’s just not worth it with the limited resources that they have. .


Mmm, you sure you have the right airline?
 
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FA9295
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Re: OAG Changes 2/3/2019: AA;B6;UA;WN;XE Adds TRM;Swoop Routes;

Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:27 pm

enilria wrote:
I find Floridians are the least snobbish about NK and from what I have seen, NK actually has the most "loyalty" in the FLL point of sale which is surprising because NK and loyalty do not usually go together. Of course the market is mostly inbound, so being king of FLL residents is not enough to have a lock on the market.

On another note, how smart would NK have been to lock down FLL 10 years ago before everybody else started making inroads? That was probably Indigo's only big mistake with NK.

Well, NK is headquartered in the Fort Lauderdale area, IIRC--so that probably explains high numbers of FLL point of sale figures. With that being said, NK isn't really the "hometown" kind of airline you'd think of like AS at SEA or B6 at JFK, or heck, even WN at DAL.
 
YYZORD
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Re: OAG Changes 2/3/2019: AA;B6;UA;WN;XE Adds TRM;Swoop Routes;

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:57 pm

So is AA ending JFK-MCO cause I still see no announcement from AA or anywhere on the internet about it.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 2/3/2019: AA;B6;UA;WN;XE Adds TRM;Swoop Routes;

Mon Feb 04, 2019 8:44 pm

FA9295 wrote:
enilria wrote:
I find Floridians are the least snobbish about NK and from what I have seen, NK actually has the most "loyalty" in the FLL point of sale which is surprising because NK and loyalty do not usually go together. Of course the market is mostly inbound, so being king of FLL residents is not enough to have a lock on the market.

On another note, how smart would NK have been to lock down FLL 10 years ago before everybody else started making inroads? That was probably Indigo's only big mistake with NK.

Well, NK is headquartered in the Fort Lauderdale area, IIRC--so that probably explains high numbers of FLL point of sale figures. With that being said, NK isn't really the "hometown" kind of airline you'd think of like AS at SEA or B6 at JFK, or heck, even WN at DAL.


But they could have been. I think there was a long period where they barely expanded FLL which gave B6 and WN a huge opening.
 
MAH4546
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Re: OAG Changes 2/3/2019: AA;B6;UA;WN;XE Adds TRM;Swoop Routes;

Tue Feb 05, 2019 12:30 am

jetbluefan1 wrote:
Thanks enilria!
Interesting to see AA bring MIA-SFO down to 2x from 4x. Perhaps an opportunity for B6 to add a third Mint frequency from FLL to backfill some of the capacity.


They aren't. It's staying at 3x daily as usual. 4x daily is only during peak travel.
a.
 
FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 2/3/2019: AA;B6;UA;WN;XE Adds TRM;Swoop Routes;

Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:25 am

YYZORD wrote:
So is AA ending JFK-MCO cause I still see no announcement from AA or anywhere on the internet about it.


It's still for sale in the summer months 2x daily... Seems weird to cut it just for May, but so far that's what has happened.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 2/3/2019: AA;B6;UA;WN;XE Adds TRM;Swoop Routes;

Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:34 pm

jetbluefan1 wrote:
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
It’s pretty remarkable from where I sit how much trouble WN is having at FLL because NK and B6 networks rely on local O/D AND POS abroad. WN seems to hope connections can offset the POS abroad but it hasn't happened. In general WN's international strategy seems to be coming apart as the recent axing of MEX shows us. Hopefully they turn it around. WN is basically a hybrid LCC/network carrier these days and it is good for overall competition if they can offer more than just domestic flights.


Based on what I have read in numerous articles and discussion sites, WN hasn’t invested in the ground resources necessary to make certain international markets work (primarily those that rely on VFR or foreign POS demand, such as MEX). But I think this goes beyond that. WN can’t even make FLL-NYC work.

That said, B6 has its own weakness at FLL - primarily those markets where it competes with both NK/WN and doesn’t have strong POS on the other end (I.e. DTW, BWI, which have been dropped). I also wouldn’t be surprised to see B6 drop a market like FLL-MSY, which I believe competes with both, is full of low yielding leisure demand, and offers little relevance to its primary FLL-based target market.


so I have now the yield data for Q3. The following would just show you how weak WN is in the NYC-FLL market. I don't know why it's still wasting Sat LGA slots on LGA-FLL.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield
LGAFLL 1076 B6 107309 166.59 166.53 226.37 99.90% 140.4 86.98% 144.84
LGAFLL 1076 DL 101430 174.54 173.17 299.04 98.92% 141.8 85.64% 148.31
LGAFLL 1076 NK 142672 73.91 73.83 89.55 99.53% 227.5 88.22% 65.13
LGAFLL 1076 WN 6451 144.2 129.95 180.59 71.86% 154.9 81.65% 106.1
EWRFLL 1065 B6 77852 162.74 162.43 328.54 99.82% 150.2 89.38% 145.18
EWRFLL 1065 NK 98390 74.46 74.23 104.31 99.24% 227.6 86.98% 64.56
EWRFLL 1065 UA 154157 169.12 168.46 293.44 99.48% 169.7 92.03% 155.04
EWRFLL 1065 WN 47408 121.34 120.6 152.47 97.68% 157.3 89.17% 107.54

There aren't too many markets where WN can survive when it can't double NK's fare .
And as I said about JAX, huge disaster.
FLLJAX 319 B6 41208 111.55 111.55 0 100.00% 100.6 75.47% 84.19
FLLJAX 319 WN 42016 101.66 101.61 170 99.94% 143.9 53.29% 54.15
50% load factor at $100 fares aren't going to survive for too long.

enilria wrote:
FA9295 wrote:
enilria wrote:
I find Floridians are the least snobbish about NK and from what I have seen, NK actually has the most "loyalty" in the FLL point of sale which is surprising because NK and loyalty do not usually go together. Of course the market is mostly inbound, so being king of FLL residents is not enough to have a lock on the market.

On another note, how smart would NK have been to lock down FLL 10 years ago before everybody else started making inroads? That was probably Indigo's only big mistake with NK.

Well, NK is headquartered in the Fort Lauderdale area, IIRC--so that probably explains high numbers of FLL point of sale figures. With that being said, NK isn't really the "hometown" kind of airline you'd think of like AS at SEA or B6 at JFK, or heck, even WN at DAL.


But they could have been. I think there was a long period where they barely expanded FLL which gave B6 and WN a huge opening.

That maybe so, but NK could never get the premium traffic out of FLL that you are seeing now with B6. They do really well on leisure and even VFR routes. But they have no presence in NorthEast and their performance really degrades on the longer range stuff. They do well on the sub 1500 miles stuff out of FLL. So there was always room for someone like B6 or WN to take hold. And B6 beat WN to the punch.

The next battle will be at MCO.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 2/3/2019: AA;B6;UA;WN;XE Adds TRM;Swoop Routes;

Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:44 pm

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
It's pretty remarkable from where I sit how much trouble WN is having at FLL because NK and B6 networks rely on local O/D AND POS abroad. WN seems to hope connections can offset the POS abroad but it hasn't happened. In general WN's international strategy seems to be coming apart as the recent axing of MEX shows us. Hopefully they turn it around. WN is basically a hybrid LCC/network carrier these days and it is good for overall competition if they can offer more than just domestic flights.

I wouldn't say it's coming apart. I think the leisure side of their int'l strategy is fine. The markets that depend on foreign point of sale were never working. I think internally there was hope that Amadeus would be a panacea, but the reality has become that the old RES system was just one of the reasons that WN can't effectively sell tickets outside the USA.

What's most interesting is that all the problems are completely within WN's control. It's almost like watching a revolt or a coup. Middle management has basically not put in place the programs that would allow these markets to be successful. There are a number of airlines with these same issues. Allegiant, for example, is another very successful airline that can't sell tickets internationally. The odd difference with WN is that they went forward with the strategy to open these types of markets and after something like 10 years there still seems no desire in middle management to make these markets work. We also know the problem is middle management because senior management has publicly stated numerous times that getting these markets to work is a corporate goal. For example, being able to make int'l markets successful was listed as one of the three reasons they bought AirTran from day one. It's a cultural impasse between the company's age old "Keep it simple, stupid" philosophy and senior management's efforts to "grow up" into a legacy, largely necessitated by their rising costs.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 2/3/2019: AA;B6;UA;WN;XE Adds TRM;Swoop Routes;

Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:54 pm

tphuang wrote:
jetbluefan1 wrote:
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
It’s pretty remarkable from where I sit how much trouble WN is having at FLL because NK and B6 networks rely on local O/D AND POS abroad. WN seems to hope connections can offset the POS abroad but it hasn't happened. In general WN's international strategy seems to be coming apart as the recent axing of MEX shows us. Hopefully they turn it around. WN is basically a hybrid LCC/network carrier these days and it is good for overall competition if they can offer more than just domestic flights.


Based on what I have read in numerous articles and discussion sites, WN hasn’t invested in the ground resources necessary to make certain international markets work (primarily those that rely on VFR or foreign POS demand, such as MEX). But I think this goes beyond that. WN can’t even make FLL-NYC work.

That said, B6 has its own weakness at FLL - primarily those markets where it competes with both NK/WN and doesn’t have strong POS on the other end (I.e. DTW, BWI, which have been dropped). I also wouldn’t be surprised to see B6 drop a market like FLL-MSY, which I believe competes with both, is full of low yielding leisure demand, and offers little relevance to its primary FLL-based target market.


so I have now the yield data for Q3. The following would just show you how weak WN is in the NYC-FLL market. I don't know why it's still wasting Sat LGA slots on LGA-FLL.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield
LGAFLL 1076 B6 107309 166.59 166.53 226.37 99.90% 140.4 86.98% 144.84
LGAFLL 1076 DL 101430 174.54 173.17 299.04 98.92% 141.8 85.64% 148.31
LGAFLL 1076 NK 142672 73.91 73.83 89.55 99.53% 227.5 88.22% 65.13
LGAFLL 1076 WN 6451 144.2 129.95 180.59 71.86% 154.9 81.65% 106.1
EWRFLL 1065 B6 77852 162.74 162.43 328.54 99.82% 150.2 89.38% 145.18
EWRFLL 1065 NK 98390 74.46 74.23 104.31 99.24% 227.6 86.98% 64.56
EWRFLL 1065 UA 154157 169.12 168.46 293.44 99.48% 169.7 92.03% 155.04
EWRFLL 1065 WN 47408 121.34 120.6 152.47 97.68% 157.3 89.17% 107.54

There aren't too many markets where WN can survive when it can't double NK's fare .
And as I said about JAX, huge disaster.
FLLJAX 319 B6 41208 111.55 111.55 0 100.00% 100.6 75.47% 84.19
FLLJAX 319 WN 42016 101.66 101.61 170 99.94% 143.9 53.29% 54.15
50% load factor at $100 fares aren't going to survive for too long.

enilria wrote:
FA9295 wrote:
Well, NK is headquartered in the Fort Lauderdale area, IIRC--so that probably explains high numbers of FLL point of sale figures. With that being said, NK isn't really the "hometown" kind of airline you'd think of like AS at SEA or B6 at JFK, or heck, even WN at DAL.


But they could have been. I think there was a long period where they barely expanded FLL which gave B6 and WN a huge opening.

That maybe so, but NK could never get the premium traffic out of FLL that you are seeing now with B6. They do really well on leisure and even VFR routes. But they have no presence in NorthEast and their performance really degrades on the longer range stuff. They do well on the sub 1500 miles stuff out of FLL. So there was always room for someone like B6 or WN to take hold. And B6 beat WN to the punch.

The next battle will be at MCO.

NK did go through the "Silver paint era" where they tried to be more of JetBlue style airline, and I think in that era they grew FLL less than in any other format. I remember we all bemoaned for years that it seemed like NK only cut frequencies out of FLL. I think it was something all companies struggle with. They needed to "invest" in FLL for it to grow into what it is now. Invest in this context means losing money while it ramps up. Not unlike WW or DY. NK wasn't willing to do that, so now WN and maybe B6 (in some markets) are loss-leading the growth in FLL. In the short term what NK did was profit optimal, but in the long term it wasn't. Unfortunately, Wall Street only cares about short-term and it got them a successful IPO which was the only goal at that point.

I agree on MCO, although it has been a yield war zone since The Mouse opened it's doors. So, not much change there. The battle moves to MCO-Latin now. I wonder if an LCC will make MIA work at some point? If FLL becomes completely unable to grow then MIA becomes viable again, but the costs and AA's dominance will make that hard as F9 already seems to have learned. What's better? MCO with a billion airlines all charging nickels or MIA with dominance, high costs, and high yields? You'd almost say MCO, but PHL has been pretty good for LCCs (similar dynamics to MIA) and MIA has boat loads of cruise traffic...litterally.
 
jetbluefan1
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Re: OAG Changes 2/3/2019: AA;B6;UA;WN;XE Adds TRM;Swoop Routes;

Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:39 am

tphuang wrote:
so I have now the yield data for Q3. The following would just show you how weak WN is in the NYC-FLL market. I don't know why it's still wasting Sat LGA slots on LGA-FLL.
CityPair Dist Carrier Board AvgFare NSFare ConnFare% NS SeatPerFlight LF Yield
LGAFLL 1076 B6 107309 166.59 166.53 226.37 99.90% 140.4 86.98% 144.84
LGAFLL 1076 DL 101430 174.54 173.17 299.04 98.92% 141.8 85.64% 148.31
LGAFLL 1076 NK 142672 73.91 73.83 89.55 99.53% 227.5 88.22% 65.13
LGAFLL 1076 WN 6451 144.2 129.95 180.59 71.86% 154.9 81.65% 106.1
EWRFLL 1065 B6 77852 162.74 162.43 328.54 99.82% 150.2 89.38% 145.18
EWRFLL 1065 NK 98390 74.46 74.23 104.31 99.24% 227.6 86.98% 64.56
EWRFLL 1065 UA 154157 169.12 168.46 293.44 99.48% 169.7 92.03% 155.04
EWRFLL 1065 WN 47408 121.34 120.6 152.47 97.68% 157.3 89.17% 107.54

There aren't too many markets where WN can survive when it can't double NK's fare .
And as I said about JAX, huge disaster.
FLLJAX 319 B6 41208 111.55 111.55 0 100.00% 100.6 75.47% 84.19
FLLJAX 319 WN 42016 101.66 101.61 170 99.94% 143.9 53.29% 54.15
50% load factor at $100 fares aren't going to survive for too long.

enilria wrote:
FA9295 wrote:
Well, NK is headquartered in the Fort Lauderdale area, IIRC--so that probably explains high numbers of FLL point of sale figures. With that being said, NK isn't really the "hometown" kind of airline you'd think of like AS at SEA or B6 at JFK, or heck, even WN at DAL.


But they could have been. I think there was a long period where they barely expanded FLL which gave B6 and WN a huge opening.

That maybe so, but NK could never get the premium traffic out of FLL that you are seeing now with B6. They do really well on leisure and even VFR routes. But they have no presence in NorthEast and their performance really degrades on the longer range stuff. They do well on the sub 1500 miles stuff out of FLL. So there was always room for someone like B6 or WN to take hold. And B6 beat WN to the punch.

The next battle will be at MCO.


Thanks for posting the fare data. Hopefully you can share some more over on the JetBlue network thread :)

WN dumped way too much capacity on FLL-JAX as these numbers show. Not surprised to see them cut back, and this is before NK enters the market. This is perhaps the prime example of the pissing match going on between B6/NK/WN down in Broward. Fuel prices have moderated and the economy is doing well for now, but I don’t see how this is sustainable if and when the environment becomes less accommodating.

Those NYC-FLL numbers are dreadful for WN.
 
AirFiero
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Re: OAG Changes 2/3/2019: AA;B6;UA;WN;XE Adds TRM;Swoop Routes;

Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:08 pm

WN LGB-SJC JUN 0>4[0]

With all of WNs activity, I've lost track. Does WN already fly this route, or is it new beginning in June?
 
AirFiero
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Re: OAG Changes 2/3/2019: AA;B6;UA;WN;XE Adds TRM;Swoop Routes;

Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:44 pm

AirFiero wrote:
WN LGB-SJC JUN 0>4[0]

With all of WNs activity, I've lost track. Does WN already fly this route, or is it new beginning in June?


FYI, I saw this in the B6 thread

WN starts 4x daily LGB-SJC in April
 
mhkansan
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Re: OAG Changes 2/3/2019: AA;B6;UA;WN;XE Adds TRM;Swoop Routes;

Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:20 am

I'm glad to see MHK-ORD up at three frequencies through the end of the schedule. They added the third flight for three months at various times of the year last year and I'm very glad to see it coming back! This means MHK will have a standard of six daily commercial flights. We've been stuck at five frequencies since MHKORD went to twice daily back in 2012.

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