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VV
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How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 8:20 am

Boeing's orders and deliveries webpage does not give the distribution of orders among 737 MAX 7, MAX 8, MAX 9 and MAX 10.

Can someone please give us the details? Thank you.
 
MileHFL400
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 8:36 am

Over 400 at this point
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:36 am

It's interesting that Boeing's seemingly so quiet about the MAX10... haven't heard much, since the last gear-mechanism displays were focused on in a release.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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scbriml
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:46 am

VV wrote:
Boeing's orders and deliveries webpage does not give the distribution of orders among 737 MAX 7, MAX 8, MAX 9 and MAX 10.

Can someone please give us the details? Thank you.


Given Boeing doesn't break out model counts for 737MAX or 777X, I'm not sure how you expect anyone here to know (or be prepared to tell).

MileHFL400 wrote:
Over 400 at this point


Care to provide a list?
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MileHFL400
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:03 am

scbriml wrote:
VV wrote:
Boeing's orders and deliveries webpage does not give the distribution of orders among 737 MAX 7, MAX 8, MAX 9 and MAX 10.

Can someone please give us the details? Thank you.


Given Boeing doesn't break out model counts for 737MAX or 777X, I'm not sure how you expect anyone here to know (or be prepared to tell).

MileHFL400 wrote:
Over 400 at this point


Care to provide a list?


Aercap 15
AGC 20
Avalon 20
BOC aviation 10
CALC China 15
United 100
Westjet 12
TUI 18
Virgin Australia 10
Lion Air 100
GOL 30
Flydubai 50
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
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Polot
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 11:04 am

scbriml wrote:

MileHFL400 wrote:
Over 400 at this point


Care to provide a list?

I don’t think anyone outside of Boeing has a definite list, but back in August Boeing stated they have over 500 orders and commitments for the -10 from at least 20 customers.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 12:22 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
It's interesting that Boeing's seemingly so quiet about the MAX10... haven't heard much, since the last gear-mechanism displays were focused on in a release.

Last week they released a video on how they are using VR to integrate the 737-10 into the production line.

https://twitter.com/BoeingAirplanes/sta ... 4515271680
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/737max ... ge#/videos


As for how many 737-10s are orders there are, there's 1 simple answer, we don't know.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 1:38 pm

I’m curious to see the new product that United is testing for their 737-10s

The 737s with lie-flat first class seats would allow the Chicago-based carrier to offer its premium domestic product in more markets where it sees demand, as well as replace its fleet of aging premium domestic Boeing 757s, United president Scott Kirby says at the Boyd Group International Aviation Forecast Summit in Denver.

"It's been really successful in the markets that we have it in," he says on United's lie-flat domestic offerings today. "There are other markets out of Newark and [Washington] Dulles that we would like to have it but we simply don't have airplanes to do it today."

...

"Would San Francisco to Washington DC work? Probably. That's part about creating a fleet we can experiment with and see which markets work and which don't," says Kirby on United's plans to expand its premium transcontinental offerings with the 737-10.

The carrier has a "second prototype" lie-flat seat for the Max 10 that it will begin testing with passengers this fall, he says. The product would enter service when the aircraft begins arriving in 2020.


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... 0s-451309/

Looks like the 737-10 will open up some new options for United.
 
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:28 pm

Airlines have to order planes far too in the future given the huge backlogs. I think both Airbus and Boeing are giving airliners flexibility in not having to designate models until a few years before delivery. Also planes can be delivered later or earlier in many cases. And there are the more spectacular switches between very different planes. "don't want those 3 350s, how about a handful of 330neos", example, not fact.
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keesje
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 4:53 pm

I've seen the 737-9 and 737-10 backlogs being combined. That could make sense, because the overlap seems very significant.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
behramjee
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:31 pm

Garuda are planning to exchange part of their 50 B7M8 order to include 34 MAX10s as per the article link below

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... m=linkedin
 
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yyz717
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 5:56 pm

United have 96, not 100, on order.

Malaysian and VietJet have also ordered the MAX 10.
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Kilgen
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:25 pm

CM has 15 MAX 10 in order as well.
 
VV
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:31 pm

Should we conclude that Boeing offers a kind of flexibility to airlines in term of 737 MAX variants when they order them.

I mean, perhaps the manufacturer does not care much the choice of MAX when an airline initially orders MAXes as long as they agree to adjust the pricing as function of the version and more importantly if they agree to freeze the configuration, say 18 months prior to delivery.

If it is the case, then it means Boeing succeeded to organize its production system (in general terms, including the supply chain) with an inherent flexibility.

I really wish you guys discuss if this is the case or not.
 
texl1649
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:49 pm

Is there any reason to think Boeing cares which version is specified more than 90-180 days prior to delivery? Plausibly, some flux is beneficial, if anything, to Boeing. The substantive differences are, after all, empennage and Spirit (fuselage).

Plausibly, commitments are made to a set model with prices for other versions fixed and change fees indexed to how far out the change is requested. This would increase Boeing's margins while facilitating negotiations with airlines (especially any considering just bidding, for instance, the 7MAX vs. the A220-300.) One vendor offers a menu of flexibility, and the other....less.

Boeing's greater margins I think are driven by a combination of NB and WB profit growth; meaning it's not program or model dependant. They're not driving sale prices higher in negotiations, but rather in net revenue from their flexibility, imho. The annual growth in margin from 11.6 to 15.6% must be driven not just from "productivity" gains on the production floor, but actual net revenue vs. net operating costs; and we all know Airbus and Boeing aren't escalating pricing 30% or more (delivered since 2015 or so contracts).
 
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Polot
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:19 pm

texl1649 wrote:
Is there any reason to think Boeing cares which version is specified more than 90-180 days prior to delivery? Plausibly, some flux is beneficial, if anything, to Boeing. The substantive differences are, after all, empennage and Spirit (fuselage).

Well Boeing probably requires more 90-180 days but yes, they are putting less emphasis on variant at time of order. Many contracts have the pricing for all (or multiple) variants already agreed upon and it is just up to the customer to tell Boeing which one they want within the appropriate time and pay Boeing the price earlier agreed upon.

That is Boeing’s rational for not publicly breaking down variants for the Max and 777X (and likely future planes like the 797) in the order book.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:21 pm

yyz717 wrote:
United have 96, not 100, on order.

Malaysian and VietJet have also ordered the MAX 10.


No they have 100, it even says it on United.com
 
bigjku
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:25 pm

VV wrote:
Should we conclude that Boeing offers a kind of flexibility to airlines in term of 737 MAX variants when they order them.

I mean, perhaps the manufacturer does not care much the choice of MAX when an airline initially orders MAXes as long as they agree to adjust the pricing as function of the version and more importantly if they agree to freeze the configuration, say 18 months prior to delivery.

If it is the case, then it means Boeing succeeded to organize its production system (in general terms, including the supply chain) with an inherent flexibility.

I really wish you guys discuss if this is the case or not.


Boeing’s industrial structure allows them to sell pretty much an open ended contract so long as there is sufficient lead time for the items that are different. 7,8,9 and 10 all can be finished on same line.

Airbus has to be a bit more specific seeing as certain lines only make the A320neo and can’t do the A321. So you need to know earlier when allocating delivery slots I would imagine.
 
texl1649
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 8:11 pm

The other thing is that as rates increase, Boeing has more flexibility, as the relative ‘churn’ rate is sort of averageable as they’re going to be delivering 3-4 737’s per day in the future. There’s just much less customization available, be it in cockpit config or anything else, today vs. yesterday.

Finally, I’d guess they’d wind up pricing the 7Max as their relative margin percentage leader in such contracts. Why make a lower margin on the smallest one, vs. incentivizing customers (relatively) to go with the high volume family member? This would, in turn, create less demand, or priority, to sell either the 10Max or 7Max. Airline fleet planners looking at 5-10 year lead times definitely favor flexibility.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:05 am

There is also the factor of possible future variants that aren't announced yet. Why bother specifying a variant when the variant is just likely to change?

In particular, I'm thinking of both MAX 9s and MAX 8s with the MAX 10 MLG. The 10 MLG could upgrade the 9's field performance from terrible to acceptable and upgrade the 8's field performance to near the point where the 7 would be superfluous.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 7:52 am

Momo1435 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
It's interesting that Boeing's seemingly so quiet about the MAX10... haven't heard much, since the last gear-mechanism displays were focused on in a release.

Last week they released a video on how they are using VR to integrate the 737-10 into the production line.

https://twitter.com/BoeingAirplanes/sta ... 1680/quote]
Thanks for this.

The guy trying to read his teleprompter at 0:36 is hilarious! :lol:
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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keesje
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 8:59 am

The ones at the controls for the -10 are IMO United, just like they were for the -9. If they start converting to -8's & push deliveries back, LionAir will do the same again.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Polot
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:05 am

keesje wrote:
The ones at the controls for the -10 are IMO United, just like they were for the -9. If they start converting to -8's & push deliveries back, LionAir will do the same again.

UA has given absolutely zero indication that they want to push deliveries back and convert to -8s.
 
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keesje
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 12:03 pm

Polot wrote:
keesje wrote:
The ones at the controls for the -10 are IMO United, just like they were for the -9. If they start converting to -8's & push deliveries back, LionAir will do the same again.

UA has given absolutely zero indication that they want to push deliveries back and convert to -8s.


If you look at figures United ordered 85 737-9 and 100 737-10. Total is 161 (?), the overlap / schedule is managed in between them, not worthy communicating. On the 737-9/-10 United is in a position they can & will adjust their backlog as required & Boeing will follow gratefully along. As long as they don't follow the others (DL, AA, Spirit, Alaska, Hawaii, Jetblue) buying A321s. (Not saying the 737-10 won't be an excellent platform doing what it is specified for).
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Polot
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 12:16 pm

keesje wrote:
Polot wrote:
keesje wrote:
The ones at the controls for the -10 are IMO United, just like they were for the -9. If they start converting to -8's & push deliveries back, LionAir will do the same again.

UA has given absolutely zero indication that they want to push deliveries back and convert to -8s.


If you look at figures United ordered 85 737-9 and 100 737-10. Total is 161 (?), the overlap / schedule is managed in between them, not worthy communicating. On the 737-9/-10 United is in a position they can & will adjust their backlog as required & Boeing will follow gratefully along. As long as they don't follow the others (DL, AA, Spirit, Alaska, Hawaii, Jetblue) buying A321s. (Not saying the 737-10 won't be an excellent platform doing what it is specified for).

I fail to see how any of this has anything to do with UA postponing -10 deliveries and switching them to -8s. That is just some scenario you made up in your head to try and cast doubt on the solidity of some -10 orders. UA has a mix of -9s and -10s in order because they can get -9s now (they already have about a dozen of them in the fleet) instead of having to wait another year or two for -10s to start steadily come out of the factory.

Yes, UA could convert some of the -10s to -8s but there is currently no indication that they plan to do so or considering switching at this time. I can just as easily claim that AA could switch their final 50 738MAXes to -10s, or that DL could reconsider and switch their A321neos to A320neos.
 
AirbusA322
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 12:46 pm

Most certainly a type QF needs in its fleet, and I’d expect Virgin to increase that quota once they get it as it is a no brainer for Oz Domestic high frequency trunk routes, especially as we go into mid next decade until 2nd Sydney Airport opens.
 
george77300
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:11 pm

keesje wrote:
If you look at figures United ordered 85 737-9 and 100 737-10. Total is 161 (?)


Just to clarify on United MAX orders:

They did have 161 on order after the Paris Air Show.

(United has firm orders for 161 737 Max, including 61 Max 9 and 100 Max 10, its fleet plan shows. Source (among many others): https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... nt-446322/)

Then last month they ordered 24 737MAX (still on books as unidentified, might change when Jan numbers released next week). This brings the total to 185. Therefore if you are correct this confirms the new order of 24 is for the MAX 9. Source: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... 73-455042/

They had 161 but now upped to 185 as of two weeks ago.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 3:07 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
It's interesting that Boeing's seemingly so quiet about the MAX10... haven't heard much, since the last gear-mechanism displays were focused on in a release.

Last week they released a video on how they are using VR to integrate the 737-10 into the production line.

https://twitter.com/BoeingAirplanes/sta ... 1680/quote]
Thanks for this.

The guy trying to read his teleprompter at 0:36 is hilarious! :lol:


I'm having 'the page requested does not exist' problems
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Polot
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 3:12 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:

Last week they released a video on how they are using VR to integrate the 737-10 into the production line.

https://twitter.com/BoeingAirplanes/sta ... 1680/quote]
Thanks for this.

The guy trying to read his teleprompter at 0:36 is hilarious! :lol:


I'm having 'the page requested does not exist' problems

LAX772LR quoted wrong and stuck a /quote] at the end of the line. See Momo1435’s link earlier in the thread for the correct url.
 
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FlightLevel360
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 3:32 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
I’m curious to see the new product that United is testing for their 737-10s

The 737s with lie-flat first class seats would allow the Chicago-based carrier to offer its premium domestic product in more markets where it sees demand, as well as replace its fleet of aging premium domestic Boeing 757s, United president Scott Kirby says at the Boyd Group International Aviation Forecast Summit in Denver.

"It's been really successful in the markets that we have it in," he says on United's lie-flat domestic offerings today. "There are other markets out of Newark and [Washington] Dulles that we would like to have it but we simply don't have airplanes to do it today."

...

"Would San Francisco to Washington DC work? Probably. That's part about creating a fleet we can experiment with and see which markets work and which don't," says Kirby on United's plans to expand its premium transcontinental offerings with the 737-10.

The carrier has a "second prototype" lie-flat seat for the Max 10 that it will begin testing with passengers this fall, he says. The product would enter service when the aircraft begins arriving in 2020.


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... 0s-451309/

Looks like the 737-10 will open up some new options for United.


Any word on whether this fleet will come with seatback IFE?
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frigatebird
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:01 pm

Polot wrote:
texl1649 wrote:
Is there any reason to think Boeing cares which version is specified more than 90-180 days prior to delivery? Plausibly, some flux is beneficial, if anything, to Boeing. The substantive differences are, after all, empennage and Spirit (fuselage).

Well Boeing probably requires more 90-180 days but yes, they are putting less emphasis on variant at time of order.

I believe Boeing wants final configurations from the airline 18 months from delivery.

Polot wrote:
keesje wrote:
The ones at the controls for the -10 are IMO United, just like they were for the -9. If they start converting to -8's & push deliveries back, LionAir will do the same again.

UA has given absolutely zero indication that they want to push deliveries back and convert to -8s.

But Polot, don't you realise the A321neo is the nonplusultra for every airline in the world? As soon as UA realises this, they cannot but convert their whole 737MAX orderbook to 8's and order 185 A321neo's :duck:

AirbusA322 wrote:
Most certainly a type QF needs in its fleet, and I’d expect Virgin to increase that quota once they get it as it is a no brainer for Oz Domestic high frequency trunk routes, especially as we go into mid next decade until 2nd Sydney Airport opens.

To add to the list of potential operators, latest rumor is that KL is looking at ordering MAX-9's and or MAX-10's.
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iceberg210
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 4:38 pm

The current numbers I have as of the end of the year for the MAX are
61 MAX 7
2614 MAX8
242 MAX9
499 MAX10
1588 unidentified

Won't say my numbers are 100% on the nose but they're about as close as one can be right now with just the publicly available information.
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TTailedTiger
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 5:06 pm

keesje wrote:
Polot wrote:
keesje wrote:
The ones at the controls for the -10 are IMO United, just like they were for the -9. If they start converting to -8's & push deliveries back, LionAir will do the same again.

UA has given absolutely zero indication that they want to push deliveries back and convert to -8s.


If you look at figures United ordered 85 737-9 and 100 737-10. Total is 161 (?), the overlap / schedule is managed in between them, not worthy communicating. On the 737-9/-10 United is in a position they can & will adjust their backlog as required & Boeing will follow gratefully along. As long as they don't follow the others (DL, AA, Spirit, Alaska, Hawaii, Jetblue) buying A321s. (Not saying the 737-10 won't be an excellent platform doing what it is specified for).


When did Alaska order A321's? I must have missed that.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 5:22 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
keesje wrote:
Polot wrote:
UA has given absolutely zero indication that they want to push deliveries back and convert to -8s.


If you look at figures United ordered 85 737-9 and 100 737-10. Total is 161 (?), the overlap / schedule is managed in between them, not worthy communicating. On the 737-9/-10 United is in a position they can & will adjust their backlog as required & Boeing will follow gratefully along. As long as they don't follow the others (DL, AA, Spirit, Alaska, Hawaii, Jetblue) buying A321s. (Not saying the 737-10 won't be an excellent platform doing what it is specified for).


When did Alaska order A321's? I must have missed that.

When Alaska Airlines purchased Virgin America and inherited its unfulfilled order of A321neo's.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 5:29 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
keesje wrote:

If you look at figures United ordered 85 737-9 and 100 737-10. Total is 161 (?), the overlap / schedule is managed in between them, not worthy communicating. On the 737-9/-10 United is in a position they can & will adjust their backlog as required & Boeing will follow gratefully along. As long as they don't follow the others (DL, AA, Spirit, Alaska, Hawaii, Jetblue) buying A321s. (Not saying the 737-10 won't be an excellent platform doing what it is specified for).


When did Alaska order A321's? I must have missed that.

When Alaska Airlines purchased Virgin America and inherited its unfulfilled order of A321neo's.


Yes, Alaska took delivery of them. They did not order them though.
 
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Polot
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 5:29 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
keesje wrote:

If you look at figures United ordered 85 737-9 and 100 737-10. Total is 161 (?), the overlap / schedule is managed in between them, not worthy communicating. On the 737-9/-10 United is in a position they can & will adjust their backlog as required & Boeing will follow gratefully along. As long as they don't follow the others (DL, AA, Spirit, Alaska, Hawaii, Jetblue) buying A321s. (Not saying the 737-10 won't be an excellent platform doing what it is specified for).


When did Alaska order A321's? I must have missed that.

When Alaska Airlines purchased Virgin America and inherited its unfulfilled order of A321neo's.

To split hairs the A321neos are leased (from GECAS iirc). VX had their own direct order for A320neos which were deferred (pre merger) until 2020 the ultimate fate of which is currently unknown.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 5:37 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

When did Alaska order A321's? I must have missed that.

When Alaska Airlines purchased Virgin America and inherited its unfulfilled order of A321neo's.


Yes, Alaska took delivery of them. They did not order them though.

Well, a predecessor of the current Alaska Airlines did.

That's the whole argument about British Airways being 50+ or turning 100...
 
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BlueSky1976
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 5:43 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
VV wrote:
Boeing's orders and deliveries webpage does not give the distribution of orders among 737 MAX 7, MAX 8, MAX 9 and MAX 10.

Can someone please give us the details? Thank you.


Given Boeing doesn't break out model counts for 737MAX or 777X, I'm not sure how you expect anyone here to know (or be prepared to tell).

MileHFL400 wrote:
Over 400 at this point


Care to provide a list?


Aercap 15
AGC 20
Avalon 20
BOC aviation 10
CALC China 15
United 100
Westjet 12
TUI 18
Virgin Australia 10
Lion Air 100
GOL 30
Flydubai 50


That's nowhere near "over" 400, more like "nearly" 400.
Proudly avoiding 737 MAX since 18.11.2020.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 5:48 pm

BlueSky1976 wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Given Boeing doesn't break out model counts for 737MAX or 777X, I'm not sure how you expect anyone here to know (or be prepared to tell).



Care to provide a list?


Aercap 15
AGC 20
Avalon 20
BOC aviation 10
CALC China 15
United 100
Westjet 12
TUI 18
Virgin Australia 10
Lion Air 100
GOL 30
Flydubai 50


That's nowhere near "over" 400, more like "nearly" 400.

That list is EXACTLY 400; with the unconfirmed/unidentified orders, it's over 400 MAX 10's.
 
iceberg210
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 5:51 pm

BlueSky1976 wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Given Boeing doesn't break out model counts for 737MAX or 777X, I'm not sure how you expect anyone here to know (or be prepared to tell).



Care to provide a list?


Aercap 15
AGC 20
Avalon 20
BOC aviation 10
CALC China 15
United 100
Westjet 12
TUI 18
Virgin Australia 10
Lion Air 100
GOL 30
Flydubai 50


That's nowhere near "over" 400, more like "nearly" 400.


This is what I've got
AerCap 15
Aviation Capital Group 20
Avolon 20
BOC Aviation 10
CALC China 15
China Development Bank 10
Copa Airlines 15
Enter Air 10
Fly Dubai 50
GECAS 20
Gol 30
Lion 100
Malaysia 10
Okay 9
SkyUp 5
SpiceJet 20
TUI Group 18
United 100
Virgin Australia 10
West Jet 12
Total 499
Erik Berg
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lightsaber
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 6:00 pm

texl1649 wrote:
Is there any reason to think Boeing cares which version is specified more than 90-180 days prior to delivery? Plausibly, some flux is beneficial, if anything, to Boeing. The substantive differences are, after all, empennage and Spirit (fuselage).

Plausibly, commitments are made to a set model with prices for other versions fixed and change fees indexed to how far out the change is requested. This would increase Boeing's margins while facilitating negotiations with airlines (especially any considering just bidding, for instance, the 7MAX vs. the A220-300.) One vendor offers a menu of flexibility, and the other....less.

Boeing's greater margins I think are driven by a combination of NB and WB profit growth; meaning it's not program or model dependant. They're not driving sale prices higher in negotiations, but rather in net revenue from their flexibility, imho. The annual growth in margin from 11.6 to 15.6% must be driven not just from "productivity" gains on the production floor, but actual net revenue vs. net operating costs; and we all know Airbus and Boeing aren't escalating pricing 30% or more (delivered since 2015 or so contracts).

Boeing needs 18+ months to adapt.

Buyers are given a menu with pricing. Buyers then work out financing. With the -7 MAX brought in family as a simple shrink, the only sticky item is the different -10 MAX landing gear. That must be ordered 30+ months in advance.

At this point, if I were the Boeing executives, I would speculatively maintain an extra 50 sets of -10 landing gear to help launch the model. In the long run, Boeing will sell all gear, so it is the holding cost to provide flexibility.

If airlines want more than a cost effective surge can accommodate, pay expediting fees. If not, oh well, suck up the inventory loss and let natural build burn down the oversupply.

Note:. I only advocate this early in the -10 build. By 2024 Boeing will know the trend. Or... Improve -8/-9 shortfield with the new gear as an option to simplify production and improve performance.

Lightsaber
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MileHFL400
Posts: 796
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 7:33 pm

BlueSky1976 wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Given Boeing doesn't break out model counts for 737MAX or 777X, I'm not sure how you expect anyone here to know (or be prepared to tell).



Care to provide a list?


Aercap 15
AGC 20
Avalon 20
BOC aviation 10
CALC China 15
United 100
Westjet 12
TUI 18
Virgin Australia 10
Lion Air 100
GOL 30
Flydubai 50


That's nowhere near "over" 400, more like "nearly" 400.


Need a calculator?
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
VV
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Posts: 1923
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:57 am

Okay.

So basically there are about 500 orders for 737 MAX 10.

Thanks for the information.
 
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keesje
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 8:15 am

VV wrote:
Okay.

So basically there are about 500 orders for 737 MAX 10.

Thanks for the information.


Yes, you could say that, although I count like 400. Be critical, for years the 737-9 also had "400" orders officially.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/boeing-modifies-one-max-model-and-is-seriously-studying-two-more-new-airplanes/

When deliveries came close, they became liquid & Boeing had to launch to 737-10 to keep United and other customers on board.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
MileHFL400
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:33 am

Couldn’t some of the unidentified orders be for the -10?
Thanks and best Regards
AA
 
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seabosdca
Posts: 6607
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:19 am

keesje wrote:
When deliveries came close, they became liquid & Boeing had to launch to 737-10 to keep United and other customers on board.


This is quite revisionist. There is no suggestion that those 400 orders would have disappeared had the MAX 10 not been launched. Instead, the following statements capture what happened more accurately:

1) Boeing increasingly had trouble securing 737 MAX 9 orders as the MAX backlog grew and the availability advantage shrank.
2) Once the MAX 10 was created, for the purpose of securing additional new orders, customers with 9s intended for delivery after the 10 started production switched to the 10.

Customers are happily taking their 9s, and having quite good experiences with them from everything we hear, today. But a 9 delivered in 2022 is quite a different beast than one delivered in 2019, and those are the orders that switched to the 10.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9411
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:02 am

seabosdca wrote:
keesje wrote:
When deliveries came close, they became liquid & Boeing had to launch to 737-10 to keep United and other customers on board.


This is quite revisionist. There is no suggestion that those 400 orders would have disappeared had the MAX 10 not been launched. Instead, the following statements capture what happened more accurately:

1) Boeing increasingly had trouble securing 737 MAX 9 orders as the MAX backlog grew and the availability advantage shrank.
2) Once the MAX 10 was created, for the purpose of securing additional new orders, customers with 9s intended for delivery after the 10 started production switched to the 10.

Customers are happily taking their 9s, and having quite good experiences with them from everything we hear, today. But a 9 delivered in 2022 is quite a different beast than one delivered in 2019, and those are the orders that switched to the 10.


You can interpret that quite differently.

Airlines having ordered the 737-9 and needed them soon, did take their 737-9. Airlines that could wait, changed to 737-10. My take is, that we will not see but a few 737-9 being delivered, once the delivery of the 737-10 starts.
 
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Polot
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:06 am

mjoelnir wrote:
seabosdca wrote:
keesje wrote:
When deliveries came close, they became liquid & Boeing had to launch to 737-10 to keep United and other customers on board.


This is quite revisionist. There is no suggestion that those 400 orders would have disappeared had the MAX 10 not been launched. Instead, the following statements capture what happened more accurately:

1) Boeing increasingly had trouble securing 737 MAX 9 orders as the MAX backlog grew and the availability advantage shrank.
2) Once the MAX 10 was created, for the purpose of securing additional new orders, customers with 9s intended for delivery after the 10 started production switched to the 10.

Customers are happily taking their 9s, and having quite good experiences with them from everything we hear, today. But a 9 delivered in 2022 is quite a different beast than one delivered in 2019, and those are the orders that switched to the 10.


You can interpret that quite differently.

Airlines having ordered the 737-9 and needed them soon, did take their 737-9. Airlines that could wait, changed to 737-10. My take is, that we will not see but a few 737-9 being delivered, once the delivery of the 737-10 starts.

Yes but that is quite a different interpretation than “keeping airlines on board.” Presumably keesje’s ideal defer and switch to -8s scenario only works if there is a -10 for some reason.
 
planecane
Posts: 1587
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:08 am

I can understand why Boeing does break out the variant for orders due to flexibility. Do they report the variant for deliveries? Those are already built so will not change.
 
planecane
Posts: 1587
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 11:13 am

lightsaber wrote:
texl1649 wrote:
Is there any reason to think Boeing cares which version is specified more than 90-180 days prior to delivery? Plausibly, some flux is beneficial, if anything, to Boeing. The substantive differences are, after all, empennage and Spirit (fuselage).

Plausibly, commitments are made to a set model with prices for other versions fixed and change fees indexed to how far out the change is requested. This would increase Boeing's margins while facilitating negotiations with airlines (especially any considering just bidding, for instance, the 7MAX vs. the A220-300.) One vendor offers a menu of flexibility, and the other....less.

Boeing's greater margins I think are driven by a combination of NB and WB profit growth; meaning it's not program or model dependant. They're not driving sale prices higher in negotiations, but rather in net revenue from their flexibility, imho. The annual growth in margin from 11.6 to 15.6% must be driven not just from "productivity" gains on the production floor, but actual net revenue vs. net operating costs; and we all know Airbus and Boeing aren't escalating pricing 30% or more (delivered since 2015 or so contracts).

Boeing needs 18+ months to adapt.

Buyers are given a menu with pricing. Buyers then work out financing. With the -7 MAX brought in family as a simple shrink, the only sticky item is the different -10 MAX landing gear. That must be ordered 30+ months in advance.

At this point, if I were the Boeing executives, I would speculatively maintain an extra 50 sets of -10 landing gear to help launch the model. In the long run, Boeing will sell all gear, so it is the holding cost to provide flexibility.

If airlines want more than a cost effective surge can accommodate, pay expediting fees. If not, oh well, suck up the inventory loss and let natural build burn down the oversupply.

Note:. I only advocate this early in the -10 build. By 2024 Boeing will know the trend. Or... Improve -8/-9 shortfield with the new gear as an option to simplify production and improve performance.

Lightsaber


It would be interesting to know what the costs would end up per frame to make the -10 gear standard on the -8 and -9. There would be some weight penalty but also improved performance. You'd have a direct cost for the parts but would it save on production costs enough to offset it?

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