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VV
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:00 pm

planecane wrote:
I can understand why Boeing does break out the variant for orders due to flexibility. Do they report the variant for deliveries? Those are already built so will not change.


Very true indeed.

We don't see 737 MAX delivery breakdown so far.

Until now there have only been 737 MAX 8 and 737 MAX 9, but soon they will deliver 737 MAX 7 too.
 
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keesje
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:05 pm

Polot wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
seabosdca wrote:

This is quite revisionist. There is no suggestion that those 400 orders would have disappeared had the MAX 10 not been launched. Instead, the following statements capture what happened more accurately:

1) Boeing increasingly had trouble securing 737 MAX 9 orders as the MAX backlog grew and the availability advantage shrank.
2) Once the MAX 10 was created, for the purpose of securing additional new orders, customers with 9s intended for delivery after the 10 started production switched to the 10.

Customers are happily taking their 9s, and having quite good experiences with them from everything we hear, today. But a 9 delivered in 2022 is quite a different beast than one delivered in 2019, and those are the orders that switched to the 10.


You can interpret that quite differently.

Airlines having ordered the 737-9 and needed them soon, did take their 737-9. Airlines that could wait, changed to 737-10. My take is, that we will not see but a few 737-9 being delivered, once the delivery of the 737-10 starts.

Yes but that is quite a different interpretation than “keeping airlines on board.” Presumably keesje’s ideal defer and switch to -8s scenario only works if there is a -10 for some reason.


Keeping on board had more to do with United being by far the biggest 737-9 and 737-10 customers, United's competitors ordering A321 and United openly communicating they are discussing the A321 with Airbus. That kind of keeping on board, in which Boeing was successful so far.

https://www.flightglobal.com/assets/getasset.aspx?itemid=73055
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2018-10-24/united-studies-a321lr-transatlantic-service

I expect the 737-10 to replace most 737-9 with the airlines at some point, with the -9 probably getting concentrated with 1 or a few airlines that don't need the -10 capabilities and can benefit from economies of scale. Delta traditionally has been smart there (DC9, MD90, 717, DC10).
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Polot
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:17 pm

keesje wrote:
Polot wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

You can interpret that quite differently.

Airlines having ordered the 737-9 and needed them soon, did take their 737-9. Airlines that could wait, changed to 737-10. My take is, that we will not see but a few 737-9 being delivered, once the delivery of the 737-10 starts.

Yes but that is quite a different interpretation than “keeping airlines on board.” Presumably keesje’s ideal defer and switch to -8s scenario only works if there is a -10 for some reason.


I expect the 737-10 to replace most 737-9 with the airlines at some point, with the -9 probably getting concentrated with 1 or a few airlines that don't need the -10 capabilities and can benefit from economies of scale. Delta traditionally has been smart there (DC9, MD90, 717, DC10).

A few smaller airlines maybe would get rid of their existing -9s but I doubt most will turn over their -9s that quickly. The 737-9 is just like any other 737Max but a slightly different size, so operating a small sub fleet of them isn’t a huge deal. You don’t need a large -9 fleet for economics of scale, just a large Max fleet. This is different than things like the DC-9s/MD-90s/717/DC10s which have unique engines and systems (or were being operated long after most other airlines retired the type).
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:06 pm

keesje wrote:

I expect the 737-10 to replace most 737-9 with the airlines at some point, with the -9 probably getting concentrated with 1 or a few airlines that don't need the -10 capabilities and can benefit from economies of scale. Delta traditionally has been smart there (DC9, MD90, 717, DC10).


There are already 3 airlines flying the 737-9. Icelandair will start service in two weeks with the 737-9. Are you saying that Icelandair, Copa, FlyDubai or United are going to imminently retire 737-9s already in service and replace them with 737-10s?

That makes no sense. Over 500 737-900ERs were delivered and none have been retired.
 
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keesje
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:07 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
Are you saying that Icelandair, Copa, FlyDubai or United are going to imminently retire 737-9s already in service and replace them with 737-10s?


No, you are.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Bricktop
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:14 pm

keesje wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
Are you saying that Icelandair, Copa, FlyDubai or United are going to imminently retire 737-9s already in service and replace them with 737-10s?


No, you are.

'Cause you'd say they should replace them with A321's. ;)

We kid because we love.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:14 pm

keesje wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
Are you saying that Icelandair, Copa, FlyDubai or United are going to imminently retire 737-9s already in service and replace them with 737-10s?


No, you are.


So what are you saying?

keesje wrote:
I expect the 737-10 to replace most 737-9 with the airlines at some point, with the -9 probably getting concentrated with 1 or a few airlines that don't need the -10 capabilities and can benefit from economies of scale.


Are you predicting 20 years into the future when airlines retire 737-9s? At what point are you predicting 737-10s replacing 737-9s? The 737-9 isn’t dead.

4 airlines have 737-9s with more to be delivered this year. Many airlines have swapped to the bigger 737-10, but not all
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:27 pm

Bricktop wrote:
keesje wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
Are you saying that Icelandair, Copa, FlyDubai or United are going to imminently retire 737-9s already in service and replace them with 737-10s?


No, you are.

'Cause you'd say they should replace them with A321's. ;)

We kid because we love.


A fun fact is that both the 737-9 and 737-10 have more orders than the A321LR. I expect the A321LR order count and conversions to eventually exceed the 737-9, but I personally predict more 737-10 deliveries than A321LRs.

The 737-10 hasn’t delivered its first plane yet, but has More than double the orders that the A321LR has. For many airlines Efficiency over the short range is more important than max range given that the average 737/A320 flight is under 1000 miles.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:46 pm

Newbiepilot wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
keesje wrote:

No, you are.

'Cause you'd say they should replace them with A321's. ;)

We kid because we love.


A fun fact is that both the 737-9 and 737-10 have more orders than the A321LR. I expect the A321LR order count and conversions to eventually exceed the 737-9, but I personally predict more 737-10 deliveries than A321LRs.

The 737-10 hasn’t delivered its first plane yet, but has More than double the orders that the A321LR has. For many airlines Efficiency over the short range is more important than max range given that the average 737/A320 flight is under 1000 miles.

You're comparing the A321LR (a variant of the A321neo, itself a variant of the A320neo Family, making the A321LR a sub-variant of the A320neo Family) with 2 variants of the 737 MAX. Kinda comparing apples to oranges.

As of December 31, 2018, 2,280 A321neo's were on the order book (out of 6,526 A320neo Family, 35%).
As of December 31, 2018, 741 737-9's and -10's were on the order book (out of the 3,417 confirmed variants of the 737 MAX, 1,588 are unconfirmed/unpublished variants, 22%).
Right now, the A321neo is a greater success (overall and within its own family) than the 737-9 & -10 combined.
 
Newbiepilot
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:58 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
Newbiepilot wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
'Cause you'd say they should replace them with A321's. ;)

We kid because we love.


A fun fact is that both the 737-9 and 737-10 have more orders than the A321LR. I expect the A321LR order count and conversions to eventually exceed the 737-9, but I personally predict more 737-10 deliveries than A321LRs.

The 737-10 hasn’t delivered its first plane yet, but has More than double the orders that the A321LR has. For many airlines Efficiency over the short range is more important than max range given that the average 737/A320 flight is under 1000 miles.

You're comparing the A321LR (a variant of the A321neo, itself a variant of the A320neo Family, making the A321LR a sub-variant of the A320neo Family) with 2 variants of the 737 MAX. Kinda comparing apples to oranges.

As of December 31, 2018, 2,280 A321neo's were on the order book (out of 6,526 A320neo Family, 35%).
As of December 31, 2018, 741 737-9's and -10's were on the order book (out of the 3,417 confirmed variants of the 737 MAX, 1,588 are unconfirmed/unpublished variants, 22%).
Right now, the A321neo is a greater success (overall and within its own family) than the 737-9 & -10 combined.


I called it a fun fact since it isn’t an equivalent comparison at all. Comparing the A321LR sub model is totally an apples to oranges comparison. Bricktop was kidding around, so I did as well since Keesje’s comments about the 737-9 being consolidated into a single airline fleet was rather silly given that we already have 4 airlines with the plane and soon there will be more.

The 737-10 is more or less equivalent in capacity to the A321, so I certainly see it being more popular than the 737-9, but I doubt its order count will ever match the A321. The A321 is a good choice for airlines needing more range given its long range variant. The 737-10 is a good choice for an airline looking to maximize efficiency over shorter routes.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: How many 737 MAX 10 are actually ordered?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:37 pm

planecane wrote:
It would be interesting to know what the costs would end up per frame to make the -10 gear standard on the -8 and -9. There would be some weight penalty but also improved performance. You'd have a direct cost for the parts but would it save on production costs enough to offset it?


The 8 has good enough field performance that I expect it may not be worth the weight penalty for most operators. But there are a few big ones (like WN) that might find a short-field 8 useful.

The 9 is the more interesting question. What I want to know is whether the 10 gear would make enough difference to make the 9 a competent field performer, maybe as good as pre-SFP 737-800s. If so, a 9 with the 10 gear could well be a better buy than the 8 for a number of operators, and might be a key product going forward.

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