NateGreat
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Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:07 pm

What is the most likely replacement for the Delta One-equipped Boeing 757-200 ETOPS that operate transcontinental and thin transatlantic routes, primarily out of JFK and BOS? They have 100 A321neo on order, but I don’t know what the route matrix will be for those.
 
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BWIAirport
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:14 pm

A lot of their long-haul 757 routes from JFK over the years have been either cut (PSA) or upguaged (AGP, CPH). I would think the neos will be able to handle most if not all of their 757 routes, such as KEF, LIS, EDI, GLA, NCE, LPA, probably DKR (am I missing any?)
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compensateme
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:33 pm

A decision hasn’t been made, and doesn’t necessairly have to be made for several years (the current aircraft were delivered between late 1996 and 2000, but quite a few ex-NW aircraft delivered in the early 2000s are available).

When a decision is made, it’ll most likely be between the 321LR and 737 Max 10, depending on DL’s needs (with the edge to the 321LR given its longer range); that’s just common sense.
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
Cactusjuba
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:39 pm

I think these will be flying until 2025-2030, in order to be replaced by the 797 or whatever Airbus counters with. Only 20 of the 321neos are going to have ETOPs, for Hawaii. Of course, plans change and there are also 100 more options.
 
NateGreat
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:39 pm

compensateme wrote:
A decision hasn’t been made, and doesn’t necessairly have to be made for several years (the current aircraft were delivered between late 1996 and 2000, but quite a few ex-NW aircraft delivered in the early 2000s are available).

When a decision is made, it’ll most likely be between the 321LR and 737 Max 10, depending on DL’s needs (with the edge to the 321LR given its longer range); that’s just common sense.

How about the Boeing 797 in the mid-2020s?
 
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compensateme
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 7:53 pm

NateGreat wrote:
compensateme wrote:
A decision hasn’t been made, and doesn’t necessairly have to be made for several years (the current aircraft were delivered between late 1996 and 2000, but quite a few ex-NW aircraft delivered in the early 2000s are available).

When a decision is made, it’ll most likely be between the 321LR and 737 Max 10, depending on DL’s needs (with the edge to the 321LR given its longer range); that’s just common sense.

How about the Boeing 797 in the mid-2020s?


Why would a 763-sized aircraft replace a 757-sized one?
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
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redzeppelin
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Mon Feb 04, 2019 8:43 pm

I think that the competitive landscape may drive some of these decisions, and a lot of it may rest on the ultimate success or failure of the TATL LCC market.

Example: I recently booked a trip SLC-JFK-KEF-JFK-SLC, with all four segments on the 757. I was amused to see that the domestic legs both had Delta One cabins, and the JFK-KEF segments were both in domestic configuration. DL is mostly competing with FI and WW to KEF, so the domestic configuration must be good enough.

The (U)LCCs can operate narrowbodies on any route where DL can do it. DL's advantage is that they have a huge route network where they can utilize just about any airplane currently on the market. As long as they continue their current model of maintaining a diverse narrowbody fleet they will always have something that they can put on any route to compete with whatever the competition has. So I expect that DL will ultimately have a large fleet of MAX, A32x, A22x and 797, and will use whatever aircraft fits each route at the time.
 
Oliver2020
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 12:12 am

compensateme wrote:
NateGreat wrote:
compensateme wrote:
A decision hasn’t been made, and doesn’t necessairly have to be made for several years (the current aircraft were delivered between late 1996 and 2000, but quite a few ex-NW aircraft delivered in the early 2000s are available).

When a decision is made, it’ll most likely be between the 321LR and 737 Max 10, depending on DL’s needs (with the edge to the 321LR given its longer range); that’s just common sense.

How about the Boeing 797 in the mid-2020s?


Why would a 763-sized aircraft replace a 757-sized one?



I know no one knows exactly what the 797 will end up being, but at one point wasn't one variant going to be a 762 sized aircraft which would seat close to the 752 seat count?
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 12:18 am

If you see DL putting lie-flats on a subfleet of the 321Neos, understand that these will be running JFK-LAX/SFO to free up 75S for TATL routes.
 
gsg013
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 12:53 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
If you see DL putting lie-flats on a subfleet of the 321Neos, understand that these will be running JFK-LAX/SFO to free up 75S for TATL routes.


What intl routes are flying with the D1 configured lie flat 757-200S? Below are a list of the routes that are flying the 757-200S that I was able to compile. I figure there are others but did not see them on the schedule.

757-200S Routes:
DCA-LAX (1x Daily)
BOS-LAX (1x Daily)
JFK-SLC (2x Daily)
JFK-LAS (1x Daily)
JFK-SEA (2x Daily)
JFK-SFO (6x Daily)
JFK-LAX (3x Daily)
JFK-LIS (1x Daily)
 
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DL757NYC
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:30 am

Luckily DL made some very smart purchases ie The TWA 757’s then they inherited quite a number of late builds from NW and they purchased the last 5 757’s ever built from 2004-05. So that decision won’t have to be dealt with for some years. The MOM from Boeing most certainly be an option by then.
 
jb1087xna
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:37 am

gsg013 wrote:

What intl routes are flying with the D1 configured lie flat 757-200S? Below are a list of the routes that are flying the 757-200S that I was able to compile. I figure there are others but did not see them on the schedule.

757-200S Routes:
DCA-LAX (1x Daily)
BOS-LAX (1x Daily)
JFK-SLC (2x Daily)
JFK-LAS (1x Daily)
JFK-SEA (2x Daily)
JFK-SFO (6x Daily)
JFK-LAX (3x Daily)
JFK-LIS (1x Daily)


Checked some random tail numbers for flights in the last week. The below also popped up. Didn't notice anything international other than JFK-LIS, as you noted.
JFK-PHX (1x Daily)
JFK-SAN (1x Daily)
Next up: XNA-ATL-IAH-MSP-XNA
 
Oliver2020
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 2:25 am

[quote][/quote]The age of the 752 etops fleet are as follows per plane spotters
752s 168 seats/
1993-1
1996-2
1997-9
1999-5
2000-1

752P 8 door exit layout the same as the 752S
2004-5 configuration 193 seats

752H configured at 199 seats
1995-2
1996-13

As Delta runs their fleet close to 30 years for the 752S fleet the first replacement would most likely be in the neighborhood of 2025.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 8:52 am

BWIAirport wrote:
I would think the neos will be able to handle most if not all of their 757 routes, such as KEF, LIS, EDI, GLA, NCE, LPA, probably DKR

NCE has long been a 767.
In fact, it was recently upgauged to 764ER.

Also, DL uses DSS airport for Dakar, with a 767 not a 757.
DKR is now freight-only.



compensateme wrote:
Why would a 763-sized aircraft replace a 757-sized one?

For the same reason an A333 sized aircraft is going to be used to replace plenty of 767s..... routes grow, traffic flows change.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:02 am

redzeppelin wrote:
I think that the competitive landscape may drive some of these decisions, and a lot of it may rest on the ultimate success or failure of the TATL LCC market.

Example: I recently booked a trip SLC-JFK-KEF-JFK-SLC, with all four segments on the 757. I was amused to see that the domestic legs both had Delta One cabins, and the JFK-KEF segments were both in domestic configuration. DL is mostly competing with FI and WW to KEF, so the domestic configuration must be good enough.

The (U)LCCs can operate narrowbodies on any route where DL can do it. DL's advantage is that they have a huge route network where they can utilize just about any airplane currently on the market. As long as they continue their current model of maintaining a diverse narrowbody fleet they will always have something that they can put on any route to compete with whatever the competition has. So I expect that DL will ultimately have a large fleet of MAX, A32x, A22x and 797, and will use whatever aircraft fits each route at the time.


Any particular reason you think DL would order the MAX? Keep in mind they have 100 A320 options they can exercise.
 
Oliver2020
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:46 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
redzeppelin wrote:
I think that the competitive landscape may drive some of these decisions, and a lot of it may rest on the ultimate success or failure of the TATL LCC market.

Example: I recently booked a trip SLC-JFK-KEF-JFK-SLC, with all four segments on the 757. I was amused to see that the domestic legs both had Delta One cabins, and the JFK-KEF segments were both in domestic configuration. DL is mostly competing with FI and WW to KEF, so the domestic configuration must be good enough.

The (U)LCCs can operate narrowbodies on any route where DL can do it. DL's advantage is that they have a huge route network where they can utilize just about any airplane currently on the market. As long as they continue their current model of maintaining a diverse narrowbody fleet they will always have something that they can put on any route to compete with whatever the competition has. So I expect that DL will ultimately have a large fleet of MAX, A32x, A22x and 797, and will use whatever aircraft fits each route at the time.


Any particular reason you think DL would order the MAX? Keep in mind they have 100 A320 options they can exercise.


Delta still has a lot of aircraft to be replaced the 77- 737-800, 57-a319, 62-a320, 16-753, 100-752 / 80 remaining md 88s and 40md90s
Going by seat count hot including expansion the remaining 59-a321ceo, 12-739er, 100 a321neos even with the 100 options doesn't cover the aircraft that will need to be replaced.( I didn't add the a220-100 and a220-300 as my opinion only those will indirectly replace the 50 seat AC and the 717s)

So yes I believe Delta will definitely buy the 797 (if launched which I hope it is) and exercise the 100 a321neo options and the remaining 35 options
If the 797 isn't launched I do believe they will buy the max which version 8,9, or 10 would be the question.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 12:38 pm

gsg013 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
If you see DL putting lie-flats on a subfleet of the 321Neos, understand that these will be running JFK-LAX/SFO to free up 75S for TATL routes.


What intl routes are flying with the D1 configured lie flat 757-200S? Below are a list of the routes that are flying the 757-200S that I was able to compile. I figure there are others but did not see them on the schedule.

757-200S Routes:
DCA-LAX (1x Daily)
BOS-LAX (1x Daily)
JFK-SLC (2x Daily)
JFK-LAS (1x Daily)
JFK-SEA (2x Daily)
JFK-SFO (6x Daily)
JFK-LAX (3x Daily)
JFK-LIS (1x Daily)


Look for summer routes. Checking Tuesday, 6/11, add JFK-GLA/EDI/AGP.
 
jumbojet
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 12:42 pm

I wonder if there be a new D1 seat on the narrow body replacement? Will they try and go with a MINT configuration where every other aisle in business class is a suite with a door? Will they try for all aisle access? The D1 seat on the 757 is quite dated in terms of product age so I would definitely think they will go for something different,
 
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compensateme
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 1:52 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
BWIAirport wrote:
I would think the neos will be able to handle most if not all of their 757 routes, such as KEF, LIS, EDI, GLA, NCE, LPA, probably DKR

NCE has long been a 767.
In fact, it was recently upgauged to 764ER.

Also, DL uses DSS airport for Dakar, with a 767 not a 757.
DKR is now freight-only.



compensateme wrote:
Why would a 763-sized aircraft replace a 757-sized one?

For the same reason an A333 sized aircraft is going to be used to replace plenty of 767s..... routes grow, traffic flows change.


You’re not discussing the same topic as the other and I. The current D1 757 fly select premium transcontinental and thin Atlantic routes; there’s no way DL’s going to order a widebody to replace this flying. There’s already credible rumors that DL will configure some of the 321 NEO to replace the 757 on transcon flights.

You’re referring to routes developing into need for larger aircraft. But unless DL gives up on chasing thin Atlantic routes, they’ll still likely maintain a small fleet of capable e.g. 321LR.
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
Oliver2020
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 6:41 pm

compensateme wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
BWIAirport wrote:
I would think the neos will be able to handle most if not all of their 757 routes, such as KEF, LIS, EDI, GLA, NCE, LPA, probably DKR

NCE has long been a 767.
In fact, it was recently upgauged to 764ER.

Also, DL uses DSS airport for Dakar, with a 767 not a 757.
DKR is now freight-only.



compensateme wrote:
Why would a 763-sized aircraft replace a 757-sized one?

For the same reason an A333 sized aircraft is going to be used to replace plenty of 767s..... routes grow, traffic flows change.


You’re not discussing the same topic as the other and I. The current D1 757 fly select premium transcontinental and thin Atlantic routes; there’s no way DL’s going to order a widebody to replace this flying. There’s already credible rumors that DL will configure some of the 321 NEO to replace the 757 on transcon flights.

You’re referring to routes developing into need for larger aircraft. But unless DL gives up on chasing thin Atlantic routes, they’ll still likely maintain a small fleet of capable e.g. 321LR.


If the 797 is a widebody with narrow body economics, and the smaller variant is a 767-200 size with the purchase price Delta likes then it could definitely go Widebody. BUT that's a lot of ifs and Boeing has kept its cards very close to its chest so it's hard to speculate on the 797.

On the other hand Delta may choose the larger variant 763 sized, 797 as Delta s plan at the moment has been upgauging across the entire fleet all the way down to 50 seats.

My thoughts are the 752S s will be replaced by a321neoLR to not only operate the transcon, but also the transatlantic.
 
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FlightLevel360
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 7:01 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
redzeppelin wrote:
I think that the competitive landscape may drive some of these decisions, and a lot of it may rest on the ultimate success or failure of the TATL LCC market.

Example: I recently booked a trip SLC-JFK-KEF-JFK-SLC, with all four segments on the 757. I was amused to see that the domestic legs both had Delta One cabins, and the JFK-KEF segments were both in domestic configuration. DL is mostly competing with FI and WW to KEF, so the domestic configuration must be good enough.

The (U)LCCs can operate narrowbodies on any route where DL can do it. DL's advantage is that they have a huge route network where they can utilize just about any airplane currently on the market. As long as they continue their current model of maintaining a diverse narrowbody fleet they will always have something that they can put on any route to compete with whatever the competition has. So I expect that DL will ultimately have a large fleet of MAX, A32x, A22x and 797, and will use whatever aircraft fits each route at the time.


Any particular reason you think DL would order the MAX? Keep in mind they have 100 A320 options they can exercise.


To replace older 737-7, 737-8, and A319/20.
To me, it will always be:
- Bombardier CSeries
- Airbus A321neoLR and A321neoXLR
- EMBRACER ERJ-170, ERJ-175, ERJ-190, and ERJ-195
- MITSUBUSHI MRJ

Anti narrowbody-long range-twinjet gang. Long live the A380 and 747!
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 7:09 pm

FlightLevel360 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
redzeppelin wrote:
I think that the competitive landscape may drive some of these decisions, and a lot of it may rest on the ultimate success or failure of the TATL LCC market.

Example: I recently booked a trip SLC-JFK-KEF-JFK-SLC, with all four segments on the 757. I was amused to see that the domestic legs both had Delta One cabins, and the JFK-KEF segments were both in domestic configuration. DL is mostly competing with FI and WW to KEF, so the domestic configuration must be good enough.

The (U)LCCs can operate narrowbodies on any route where DL can do it. DL's advantage is that they have a huge route network where they can utilize just about any airplane currently on the market. As long as they continue their current model of maintaining a diverse narrowbody fleet they will always have something that they can put on any route to compete with whatever the competition has. So I expect that DL will ultimately have a large fleet of MAX, A32x, A22x and 797, and will use whatever aircraft fits each route at the time.


Any particular reason you think DL would order the MAX? Keep in mind they have 100 A320 options they can exercise.


To replace older 737-7, 737-8, and A319/20.

... which could also be replaced by A319/20/21neo's.

By the way, DL doesn't have 737-7's or -8's; those would be the MAX variant, which DL doesn't have.
However, DL has 737-700's and -800's.
 
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FlightLevel360
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:10 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
FlightLevel360 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

Any particular reason you think DL would order the MAX? Keep in mind they have 100 A320 options they can exercise.


To replace older 737-7, 737-8, and A319/20.

... which could also be replaced by A319/20/21neo's.

By the way, DL doesn't have 737-7's or -8's; those would be the MAX variant, which DL doesn't have.
However, DL has 737-700's and -800's.


Sorry, I got lazy and forgot to type the -00. What are the chances that they will order the A19N/A20N instead of opting for a more mixed fleet? I see that the 737 family is doing very well for them, while the NW airbus fleet tends to have more breakdowns on average.
To me, it will always be:
- Bombardier CSeries
- Airbus A321neoLR and A321neoXLR
- EMBRACER ERJ-170, ERJ-175, ERJ-190, and ERJ-195
- MITSUBUSHI MRJ

Anti narrowbody-long range-twinjet gang. Long live the A380 and 747!
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:26 pm

These aircraft have low cycles and can fly for another decade if DL needs them to, so there isn't any huge hurry.

With that said, the options are pretty clear at this point. They range like this:

- Standard A321neo. Similar payload, less range, much less fuel burn than the 757. This would be the most logical path given the winter mission profile that's almost exclusively transcon.
- A321LR. Similar payload and range to the 75S. Could fly all the summer missions. But you have the extra empty weight of the aux tank to carry around.
- A321XLR? If this is built, it should provide even more range than the A321LR with less of a weight penalty.
- 797. More payload, similar or greater range, should have about the same fuel burn as the 757. If there is untapped revenue potential in a lot of 75S markets then the 797 is the obvious choice.
 
777Mech
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:39 pm

Fwiw the first 25 321Neos will be ETOPS equipped, but not equipped with Delta One. This will probably replace the Hawaii 757 flights as well as the few 757s that do transatlantic flights with no lie flats like KEF and PDL.
 
Runway28L
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 11:09 pm

jb1087xna wrote:
gsg013 wrote:

What intl routes are flying with the D1 configured lie flat 757-200S? Below are a list of the routes that are flying the 757-200S that I was able to compile. I figure there are others but did not see them on the schedule.

757-200S Routes:
DCA-LAX (1x Daily)
BOS-LAX (1x Daily)
JFK-SLC (2x Daily)
JFK-LAS (1x Daily)
JFK-SEA (2x Daily)
JFK-SFO (6x Daily)
JFK-LAX (3x Daily)
JFK-LIS (1x Daily)


Checked some random tail numbers for flights in the last week. The below also popped up. Didn't notice anything international other than JFK-LIS, as you noted.
JFK-PHX (1x Daily)
JFK-SAN (1x Daily)

BOS-EDI is on a 75S for S19.
 
Oliver2020
Posts: 140
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:39 am

Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Tue Feb 05, 2019 11:16 pm

777Mech wrote:
Fwiw the first 25 321Neos will be ETOPS equipped, but not equipped with Delta One. This will probably replace the Hawaii 757 flights as well as the few 757s that do transatlantic flights with no lie flats like KEF and PDL.


Once the 25 ETOPS A321neos arrive and are in service will Delta completely remove Etops cert from the 21-739ers that remained etops certified
 
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compensateme
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:32 am

Oliver2020 wrote:
compensateme wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
NCE has long been a 767.
In fact, it was recently upgauged to 764ER.

Also, DL uses DSS airport for Dakar, with a 767 not a 757.
DKR is now freight-only.




For the same reason an A333 sized aircraft is going to be used to replace plenty of 767s..... routes grow, traffic flows change.


You’re not discussing the same topic as the other and I. The current D1 757 fly select premium transcontinental and thin Atlantic routes; there’s no way DL’s going to order a widebody to replace this flying. There’s already credible rumors that DL will configure some of the 321 NEO to replace the 757 on transcon flights.

You’re referring to routes developing into need for larger aircraft. But unless DL gives up on chasing thin Atlantic routes, they’ll still likely maintain a small fleet of capable e.g. 321LR.


If the 797 is a widebody with narrow body economics, and the smaller variant is a 767-200 size with the purchase price Delta likes then it could definitely go Widebody. BUT that's a lot of ifs and Boeing has kept its cards very close to its chest so it's hard to speculate on the 797.

On the other hand Delta may choose the larger variant 763 sized, 797 as Delta s plan at the moment has been upgauging across the entire fleet all the way down to 50 seats.

My thoughts are the 752S s will be replaced by a321neoLR to not only operate the transcon, but also the transatlantic.


A clean sheet 797 design with similar capacity to the 321LR (a la 762) will be inherently challenged economically. While much more competive than a 762, and of newer technology than a 321LR, it’d still be like a 300 lb. man trying to fit into size 34 jeans.

Given that it’d cost significantly more to purchase than a 321LR and not be available for close to a decade, it’s incredibly doubtful DL will go for it.

Reality is, the 321LR is the front runner to replace such flying, unless Boeing gives DL a significantly better deal.
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:49 am

compensateme wrote:
You’re not discussing the same topic as the other and I. The current D1 757 fly select premium transcontinental and thin Atlantic routes; there’s no way DL’s going to order a widebody to replace this flying. There’s already credible rumors that DL will configure some of the 321 NEO to replace the 757 on transcon flights.

You’re referring to routes developing into need for larger aircraft. But unless DL gives up on chasing thin Atlantic routes, they’ll still likely maintain a small fleet of capable e.g. 321LR.

I'm aware of what you're discussing, and my statement remains the same.

You seem to be assuming that I'm suggesting all such routes would go to a single aircraft, when both history and common sense suggest that wouldn't be the case. Some could very easily and feasibly be replaced by widebodies, while others with an extant or future narrowbody product, and others dropped altogether.

A combination of all the above is the likely outcome.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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compensateme
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:03 am

LAX772LR wrote:
compensateme wrote:
You’re not discussing the same topic as the other and I. The current D1 757 fly select premium transcontinental and thin Atlantic routes; there’s no way DL’s going to order a widebody to replace this flying. There’s already credible rumors that DL will configure some of the 321 NEO to replace the 757 on transcon flights.

You’re referring to routes developing into need for larger aircraft. But unless DL gives up on chasing thin Atlantic routes, they’ll still likely maintain a small fleet of capable e.g. 321LR.

I'm aware of what you're discussing, and my statement remains the same.

You seem to be assuming that I'm suggesting all such routes would go to a single aircraft, when both history and common sense suggest that wouldn't be the case. Some could very easily and feasibly be replaced by widebodies, while others with an extant or future narrowbody product, and others dropped altogether.

A combination of all the above is the likely outcome.


In my previous response I reiterated that I was discussing market segment not individual routes, and you responded by saying you were aware of that and started to mention individual routes. I can’t help you out there, sorry!

There are plenty of credible rumors that the inital batch of 321 NEO will contain aircraft that are ETOPS and others that have D1. With a significant difference in fuel burn, it makes sense to deploy these aircraft on DL’s longest domestic routes, where there is a considerable difference in fuel burn. Alas, I doubt DL will await a clean sheet design to replace the D1-configured 757. I will handily bet that in five years, the average stage length of the 757 will have significantly decreased.
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LAX772LR
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:07 am

compensateme wrote:
In my previous response I reiterated that I was discussing market segment not individual routes, and you responded by saying you were aware of that and started to mention individual routes. I can’t help you out there, sorry!

Good thing no one requests nor requires your "help" ;)

But that said, "market segment" is not restricted to individual aircraft type nor route type, but is always an overlap of both. That's one reason you saw tandem development of aircraft variants throughout the '70s-'90s.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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compensateme
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:19 am

LAX772LR wrote:
compensateme wrote:
In my previous response I reiterated that I was discussing market segment not individual routes, and you responded by saying you were aware of that and started to mention individual routes. I can’t help you out there, sorry!

Good thing no one requests nor requires your "help" ;)

But that said, "market segment" is not restricted to individual aircraft type nor route type, but is always an overlap of both. That's one reason you saw tandem development of aircraft variants throughout the '70s-'90s.


I trying to dechiper what your point is, and what you’re refuting that I’ve written. Are you trying to state that within five years, the market will trend toward widebodied aircraft on thin intercontintal flights and all premium transcon? And if so, do you really believe that? Especially when DL says most of its future growth will be of the long-haul variety; much of that will be with thinner routes obviously. Are you just babbling?
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TTailedTiger
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:20 am

compensateme wrote:
Oliver2020 wrote:
compensateme wrote:

You’re not discussing the same topic as the other and I. The current D1 757 fly select premium transcontinental and thin Atlantic routes; there’s no way DL’s going to order a widebody to replace this flying. There’s already credible rumors that DL will configure some of the 321 NEO to replace the 757 on transcon flights.

You’re referring to routes developing into need for larger aircraft. But unless DL gives up on chasing thin Atlantic routes, they’ll still likely maintain a small fleet of capable e.g. 321LR.


If the 797 is a widebody with narrow body economics, and the smaller variant is a 767-200 size with the purchase price Delta likes then it could definitely go Widebody. BUT that's a lot of ifs and Boeing has kept its cards very close to its chest so it's hard to speculate on the 797.

On the other hand Delta may choose the larger variant 763 sized, 797 as Delta s plan at the moment has been upgauging across the entire fleet all the way down to 50 seats.

My thoughts are the 752S s will be replaced by a321neoLR to not only operate the transcon, but also the transatlantic.


A clean sheet 797 design with similar capacity to the 321LR (a la 762) will be inherently challenged economically. While much more competive than a 762, and of newer technology than a 321LR, it’d still be like a 300 lb. man trying to fit into size 34 jeans.

Given that it’d cost significantly more to purchase than a 321LR and not be available for close to a decade, it’s incredibly doubtful DL will go for it.

Reality is, the 321LR is the front runner to replace such flying, unless Boeing gives DL a significantly better deal.


While I agree with your position on DL not going for the 797, I disagree on your position regarding its economics. You can be sure Boeing wouldn't be building it unless the economics are superior to current offerings. At one time Delta was only operating 738's on JFK-LAX/SFO. Then it moved up to 757's and then some were upguaged to 767/330. I think there is demand for widebodies on those routes. I could see it being a mix of 321 and 330 in the future.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:27 am

compensateme wrote:
Are you trying to state that within five years, the market will trend toward widebodied aircraft on thin intercontintal flights

Yep.


compensateme wrote:
and all premium transcon?

Nope.


compensateme wrote:
And if so, do you really believe that?

Yep.


compensateme wrote:
Are you just babbling?

Nope. In fact, I'm speaking in single syllables: just for you. :)
Last edited by LAX772LR on Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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compensateme
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:28 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
compensateme wrote:
Oliver2020 wrote:

If the 797 is a widebody with narrow body economics, and the smaller variant is a 767-200 size with the purchase price Delta likes then it could definitely go Widebody. BUT that's a lot of ifs and Boeing has kept its cards very close to its chest so it's hard to speculate on the 797.

On the other hand Delta may choose the larger variant 763 sized, 797 as Delta s plan at the moment has been upgauging across the entire fleet all the way down to 50 seats.

My thoughts are the 752S s will be replaced by a321neoLR to not only operate the transcon, but also the transatlantic.


A clean sheet 797 design with similar capacity to the 321LR (a la 762) will be inherently challenged economically. While much more competive than a 762, and of newer technology than a 321LR, it’d still be like a 300 lb. man trying to fit into size 34 jeans.

Given that it’d cost significantly more to purchase than a 321LR and not be available for close to a decade, it’s incredibly doubtful DL will go for it.

Reality is, the 321LR is the front runner to replace such flying, unless Boeing gives DL a significantly better deal.


While I agree with your position on DL not going for the 797, I disagree on your position regarding its economics. You can be sure Boeing wouldn't be building it unless the economics are superior to current offerings. At one time Delta was only operating 738's on JFK-LAX/SFO. Then it moved up to 757's and then some were upguaged to 767/330. I think there is demand for widebodies on those routes. I could see it being a mix of 321 and 330 in the future.


Except that it’s just LAX that’s been upgauged to mix that includes widebodies; they’re not common to SFO, and likely won’t be in the near future given DL’s weaker position at SFO, and they aren’t used on other premium transcon like JFK-SEA/LAS, DCA-LAX, BOS-LAX. I doubt we’ll ever go back to the days in which transcontinental flights are all widebodies — heck, DL’s struggled to keep regular D1 service to SEA, in spite of the hub, and it’s probable that DL will continue to grow its portfolio of D1 flights. Hence, market segmet.

Nor do I think the 757 will last much longer, at least on the D1 domestic flights. DL will soon have a ton of 739 and 321, including NEO, that will represent a huge fuel savings. No way will they wait for a clean sheet aircraft, almost unquestionably these routes are headed for 737 MAX / 321 NEO - at least incrementally.
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compensateme
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:30 am

LAX772LR wrote:
compensateme wrote:
Are you trying to state that within five years, the market will trend toward widebodied aircraft on thin intercontintal flights

Yep


compensateme wrote:
and all premium transcon?

Nope.


compensateme wrote:
And if so, do you really believe that?

Yep


compensateme wrote:
Are you just babbling?

Nope. In fact, I'm speaking in single syllables: so simple even you should grasp it. :)


Thanks for your response, but I’m still unclear as to why you’re refuting my argument when you just acknowledged you agree with it.
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LAX772LR
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:41 am

compensateme wrote:
when you just acknowledged you agree with it.

Hmm, you missed a few key adjustments... one of which was even underlined for you.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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keesje
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:14 am

Mostly I would agree with LAX772LR, 767s ETOPS and 739 / A321s TCON. Maybe A321LR, TATL if that would give specific advantages. If the costs of maintaining & operating are becoming as high as I hear, this could go fast. AA will be done with the 757 in a few years, United also has a near term replacement target.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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compensateme
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:46 am

LAX772LR wrote:
compensateme wrote:
when you just acknowledged you agree with it.

Hmm, you missed a few key adjustments... one of which was even underlined for you.


You may wish to reread through my postings, because you’re agreeing with me.
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Oliver2020
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:16 am

compensateme wrote:
Oliver2020 wrote:
compensateme wrote:

You’re not discussing the same topic as the other and I. The current D1 757 fly select premium transcontinental and thin Atlantic routes; there’s no way DL’s going to order a widebody to replace this flying. There’s already credible rumors that DL will configure some of the 321 NEO to replace the 757 on transcon flights.

You’re referring to routes developing into need for larger aircraft. But unless DL gives up on chasing thin Atlantic routes, they’ll still likely maintain a small fleet of capable e.g. 321LR.


If the 797 is a widebody with narrow body economics, and the smaller variant is a 767-200 size with the purchase price Delta likes then it could definitely go Widebody. BUT that's a lot of ifs and Boeing has kept its cards very close to its chest so it's hard to speculate on the 797.

On the other hand Delta may choose the larger variant 763 sized, 797 as Delta s plan at the moment has been upgauging across the entire fleet all the way down to 50 seats.

My thoughts are the 752S s will be replaced by a321neoLR to not only operate the transcon, but also the transatlantic.


A clean sheet 797 design with similar capacity to the 321LR (a la 762) will be inherently challenged economically. While much more competive than a 762, and of newer technology than a 321LR, it’d still be like a 300 lb. man trying to fit into size 34 jeans.

Given that it’d cost significantly more to purchase than a 321LR and not be available for close to a decade, it’s incredibly doubtful DL will go for it.

Reality is, the 321LR is the front runner to replace such flying, unless Boeing gives DL a significantly better deal.


In my earlier post I stated IF the smallest version of the 797 (approximately the size of a 762) had the operating economic s of a narrow body aircraft and met Deltas price point then that would be a possibility.

delta just recently deferred 10 a350s for delivery beginning in 2025 with options to convert them to other aircraft, and how do you know Delta doesn't have the option to convert some of the 100 a321neos to a321neolr between 2020 and 2023. However the a321neo has the range to do transcons and Delta likes to get 30 years out of their airplanes so being as the oldest 752S was built in 1993 ( and even then it's only 1 AC)it would stand to reason a replacement for those aircraft wouldn't be needed until 2026.

Depending on the economy and fuel prices in the future that will most likely dictate the retirement of the aircraft.
 
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compensateme
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:31 am

Oliver2020 wrote:
compensateme wrote:
Oliver2020 wrote:

If the 797 is a widebody with narrow body economics, and the smaller variant is a 767-200 size with the purchase price Delta likes then it could definitely go Widebody. BUT that's a lot of ifs and Boeing has kept its cards very close to its chest so it's hard to speculate on the 797.

On the other hand Delta may choose the larger variant 763 sized, 797 as Delta s plan at the moment has been upgauging across the entire fleet all the way down to 50 seats.

My thoughts are the 752S s will be replaced by a321neoLR to not only operate the transcon, but also the transatlantic.


A clean sheet 797 design with similar capacity to the 321LR (a la 762) will be inherently challenged economically. While much more competive than a 762, and of newer technology than a 321LR, it’d still be like a 300 lb. man trying to fit into size 34 jeans.

Given that it’d cost significantly more to purchase than a 321LR and not be available for close to a decade, it’s incredibly doubtful DL will go for it.

Reality is, the 321LR is the front runner to replace such flying, unless Boeing gives DL a significantly better deal.


In my earlier post I stated IF the smallest version of the 797 (approximately the size of a 762) had the operating economic s of a narrow body aircraft and met Deltas price point then that would be a possibility.

delta just recently deferred 10 a350s for delivery beginning in 2025 with options to convert them to other aircraft, and how do you know Delta doesn't have the option to convert some of the 100 a321neos to a321neolr between 2020 and 2023. However the a321neo has the range to do transcons and Delta likes to get 30 years out of their airplanes so being as the oldest 752S was built in 1993 ( and even then it's only 1 AC)it would stand to reason a replacement for those aircraft wouldn't be needed until 2026.

Depending on the economy and fuel prices in the future that will most likely dictate the retjirement of the aircraft.


I’m trying to be conservative with my responses, but that’s clearly what I’m trying to get at — some of the 321 NEO on order will be delivered at least with a D1 cabin, and possibly as LR variants, and the current D1 aircraft will be reconfigured for domestic use.

The 757 will likely see their average stage length continue to decrease as time goes on as more 739 and 321 are delivered.
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Oliver2020
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:54 am

compensateme wrote:
Oliver2020 wrote:
compensateme wrote:

A clean sheet 797 design with similar capacity to the 321LR (a la 762) will be inherently challenged economically. While much more competive than a 762, and of newer technology than a 321LR, it’d still be like a 300 lb. man trying to fit into size 34 jeans.

Given that it’d cost significantly more to purchase than a 321LR and not be available for close to a decade, it’s incredibly doubtful DL will go for it.

Reality is, the 321LR is the front runner to replace such flying, unless Boeing gives DL a significantly better deal.


In my earlier post I stated IF the smallest version of the 797 (approximately the size of a 762) had the operating economic s of a narrow body aircraft and met Deltas price point then that would be a possibility.

delta just recently deferred 10 a350s for delivery beginning in 2025 with options to convert them to other aircraft, and how do you know Delta doesn't have the option to convert some of the 100 a321neos to a321neolr between 2020 and 2023. However the a321neo has the range to do transcons and Delta likes to get 30 years out of their airplanes so being as the oldest 752S was built in 1993 ( and even then it's only 1 AC)it would stand to reason a replacement for those aircraft wouldn't be needed until 2026.

Depending on the economy and fuel prices in the future that will most likely dictate the retjirement of the aircraft.


I’m trying to be conservative with my responses, but that’s clearly what I’m trying to get at — some of the 321 NEO on order will be delivered at least with a D1 cabin, and possibly as LR variants, and the current D1 aircraft will be reconfigured for domestic use.

The 757 will likely see their average stage length continue to decrease as time goes on as more 739 and 321 are delivered.


With exception to the last line of your post regarding the 757 average stage length that's what I said in my other posts regarding the a321neo and a321lr
I thought it was a given on transcons and I'm talking jfk-lax,sfo would only be D1.

Speaking of the D1 752S maybe the 752Ps configured in a domestic configuration 193 seats. Perhaps Deltas looking at the economics to configure the 75Ss to 193 seats once the neos are on property and the current 752 D1 products is outdated. Most likely the reason the 5-752Ps weren't configured to the 752S configuration was the fact that that particular refurb line had been closed for 2 years when those were purchased.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:32 am

keesje wrote:
Mostly I would agree with LAX772LR, 767s ETOPS and 739 / A321s TCON. Maybe A321LR, TATL if that would give specific advantages. If the costs of maintaining & operating are becoming as high as I hear, this could go fast. AA will be done with the 757 in a few years, United also has a near term replacement target.


There are so many in the desert I'm surprised maintenece spares are hard to find.

Boeing should have put this model to bed in '98.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 1479
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:33 am

1989worstyear wrote:
keesje wrote:
Mostly I would agree with LAX772LR, 767s ETOPS and 739 / A321s TCON. Maybe A321LR, TATL if that would give specific advantages. If the costs of maintaining & operating are becoming as high as I hear, this could go fast. AA will be done with the 757 in a few years, United also has a near term replacement target.


There are so many in the desert I'm surprised maintenece spares are hard to find.

Boeing should have put this model to bed in '98.


What is with your fixation on certain years?
 
WayexTDI
Posts: 1229
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:38 pm

Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:48 pm

1989worstyear wrote:
[...]
Boeing should have put this model to bed in '98.

And miss on 105 sales (1999 and up)??? That'd be stupid to the upmost level, it was basically 10% of the total sales...
 
ryanov
Posts: 182
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2012 4:38 am

Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 5:40 pm

Not sure what that poster is talking about when he says that Delta doesn’t fly widebodies on JFK – SFO. I flew both ways on the 763 just a year and change ago, and you can still do it today.
 
gsg013
Posts: 519
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Re: Delta 757-200 ETOPS Replacement?

Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:36 pm

keesje wrote:
Mostly I would agree with LAX772LR, 767s ETOPS and 739 / A321s TCON. Maybe A321LR, TATL if that would give specific advantages. If the costs of maintaining & operating are becoming as high as I hear, this could go fast. AA will be done with the 757 in a few years, United also has a near term replacement target.


I do find the A320 family to be much more comfortable for a long transcon flight than the 737 the extra 7 inches of cabin width and higher ceiling make the plane feel much roomier which helps out on the near 6 hour transcons. (I would hope if DL makes a new Narrowbody the go-to for premium- D1 trans-cons that they go with the airbus and not the 737). I am not trying to bash the 737 know it is an amazing plane and enjoy flying it but anything over ~4 hours in a 737 makes me feel too cooped up.

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