All I'm saying is the "Southwest" effect is NEVER going to be realized. Tell that to go!, Island Air, Mahalo, Mokulele(E170 op), ATA, Aloha, etc. Fares can already be dirt cheap, and show me where Southwest is still the "low fare airline" - they haven't been since Herb retired. WN's fares are in line with almost everyone else, if not more expensive.
There's plenty of saturation already.
For those of you who work at American, check *EVERY flight tonight out of Maui. Kona certainly won't be leaving anyone behind. Nor will Lihue. Its a non-rev's dream.
Alaska - Maui to San Fran, LA, San Diego... far from full. Alaska's Kona departures today - if you add up all the empty seats, you'd be well over a 737-900's capacity. Again, a non-rev's dream.
I stand by my statement. Southwest entering the trans-pac market is going to do nothing more than make Honolulu easier for non-revs.
I'm going to love to watch them prove you wrong.
Yeah! Me too...
You're all correct. Southwest won't change the fare environment that much given the intense competition already, but something will have to give. I doubt SMF will be able to support 3 carriers to both HNL and OGG. Same with SAN and SJC (particularly with UA up the road in SFO). HA, in their last earnings call, has warned about RASM dropping in 2019, and that warning did not include WN as WN has no published schedule yet. AS will likely be the big casualty here as WN has staked too much on their Hawaii plans, and because WN is the largest carrier at WN's planned gateways. HA will get those seeking the Hawaii vibe from the start. AA, DL, and UA will be able to leverage their hubs to fill up their flights to an extent, especially their interior US hubs as WN will not be competitive for Hawaii east of Denver until they start redeye flights. This will be a bruising battle for all involved.
Think about it this way - if and when WN enters LAX-Hawaii, there will be 7 carriers on LAX-HNL: AA, AS, DL, HA, SY, UA, and WN. Bay Area - Hawaii will have 5: AS, HA, SY, UA, and WN. Is there another domestic route that has seven competitors?! And hotels are already pretty full in Hawaii.
Biggest winners will be people traveling between California and Hawaii.