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wnflyguy
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Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Sat Feb 16, 2019 7:56 pm

barney captain wrote:
Look for the MAX to make an appearance OAK-HNL on the 16th. OGG will follow immediately afterwards.


Looking like a 800NG today's flight.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Sat Feb 16, 2019 8:43 pm

So spin going around that 11 years ago on April 2 2008 WN codeshare partner the original Hawaii low fare leader ATA filed for chapter 11 and shutdown on April 3 2008. 11 years Later on Big Wednesday (Surfer Talk) April 3 2019 WN will be surfing the low fares back into Hawaii with the first 11 New Southwest nonstops flights into Hawaii.

For those of that may have forgotten ATA was WN original connection to Hawaii.

If WN actually starts on that date WN should offer all those original WN connecting passengers affected by the original shutdown flights on the new WN service.

Now do I actually think WN will start on this date? No. But it's possible because if WN gets the approval by next week. It give WN just enough time for Hawaii Bid Lines come out for April flying for
Both the Pilot and FAs.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
SWADawg
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Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Sat Feb 16, 2019 10:39 pm

Looks like a possible divert is in progress. Flight 8725 now shows OAK-ITO. Hilo spotters be ready.
My posts are my opinion only and do not reflect the views of Southwest Airlines
 
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barney captain
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Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Sat Feb 16, 2019 11:30 pm

And at 10000 feet. Looks like a decompression simulation.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Sun Feb 17, 2019 12:08 am

Looks like it's heading to back to HNL now.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
DaCubbyBearBar
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Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Sun Feb 17, 2019 12:15 am

flight tracker shows 7 mins from ITO... A FIRST for sure...hope for some pics
I am me and no one else...so my opinions are mine
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Sun Feb 17, 2019 12:20 am

Yep they turned and landing ITO she's will be on the ground for an Hour sit and then short hop to HNL.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:54 am

WN first inter island flight it's technically on its way between ITO and HNL.

Flyguy
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RWA380
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Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Sun Feb 17, 2019 6:00 am

[list=][/list]
wnflyguy wrote:
WN first inter island flight it's technically on its way between ITO and HNL.

Flyguy


Great piece of info for Jeopardy or a few years down the road on A.net. I know I will remember it. Cool.
707 717 720 727-1/2 737-1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9 747-1/2/3/4 757-2/3 767-2/3/4 777-2/3 DC8 DC9 MD80/2/7/8 D10-1/3/4 M11 L10-1/2/5 A300/310/320
AA AC AQ AS BA BD BN CO CS DL EA EZ HA HG HP KL KN MP MW NK NW OZ PA PS QX RC RH RW SA TG TW UA US VS WA WC WN WP YS 8M
 
tphuang
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Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Sun Feb 17, 2019 8:12 pm

so now that we've had several articles come out proclaiming that WN might get approved next week, I took a look at possible effect of WN entrance into HI market. Keep in mind, all of the numbers I'm posting is based on 2017Q3 to 2018Q3 data from BTS.

Keep in mind, there was very little capacity growth from mainland US to HI in 2016 and move of 2017. That was very good news for HA, as it had a banner year in 2017. That story changed in the past year as UA boosted its capacity and so did HA with the introduction of A321NEO. For example, this article showed that capacity to HI increased 12% in May of 2018, mostly on the other islands. http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/3807 ... uring-may/

Also keep in mind that HI tourism was affected last year by the volcano.

The numbers below does not include any flight to KOA since it crashed after the volcano incident. I looked at every airline out of west coast but focused mostly on the numbers of HA, AS and UA since they are most likely affected by any WN entrance.

First of all, LA Basin. It had about 5.6% extra capacity in Q3 of 2018 vs 2017 with 8.3% more flights. LF increased from 86.9% to 88.7%. UA increased by close to 5%. The biggest increase came from HA, which had the new daily flight on HNL-LGB + half daily flight more on LAX-OGG. It had close to 13% more capacity. AS had 4.5% more capacity due to switching from the high CAM ex-VX A320 to lower CASM B737.

The results were total yield dropping by 11.5%. UA dropped by 7.8%. HA dropped by 12.2%. AS dropped by 17.6%. In some case like HA and AS, the drop was partially due to using more lower CASM/RASM aircraft. But there were also some effect from the a general tougher fare environment to HI in 2018.

Secondly, to bay area. Here, there was basically no extra capacity YoY. The only addition was AS on SFO-KOA, which I did not include in my result and had terrible numbers. There were no other new routes. Other than that, HA capacity dropped a little bit due to late deliveries of A321NEO, while UA flights increased a little bit to make up for the drop in HA capacity.

The results were total yield dropping by 10%. UA dropped by 13.5%. HA dropped by 8%. AS dropped by 6.2%. Not surprisingly, UA additions led to the most drop in yield.

Next one is SAN. The major change this year was the entrance of HA into SAN-OGG market, which had huge effect on the pricing environment out of SAN. Capacity increased by 25% YoY, # of flights increased by 25% and LF dropped from 90.5% to 86.7%.

The results were total yield dropping by 14.2%. Both AS and HA dropped by about that much.

Next one is SMF. There was no major change here. Capacity dropped 1% and LF was up slightly. The results were yield dropping 5%, which was shared between AS and HA.

Final I looked at was PDX (even though WN is unlikely to enter here), because there was addition of HA on PDX-OGG. The capacity was up 18% and the number of flight was up 26%. The LF dropped from 89.5% to 82.6%. The overall yield was down 15.5%. HA's yield was down 18.6% and AS's yield was down 12.5%.

From looking at this, I think it's fair to say that overall fare environment was down 5 to 10% when factoring out capacity increases. Maybe that's caused by general domestic fare environment. Maybe it's due to the volcano. Or maybe it's due to nationwide increases in capacity. After that, there was another 5 to 10% drop in yield depending on the amount of additional capacity.

I think SAN/PDX is most to be studied here, since they saw 5 to 10% bigger drop in yield due to one additional daily HA flight (which caused 18 to 25% jump in capacity).

Now if we are to apply to each market that WN is going to enter.
Out of SAN, if WN even enters 2 out of 3 islands (not factoring in KOA). That would cause 35 to 40% more capacity there. Which could cause yield dropping another 15 to 25% from SAN to HI. If it enters all 3, then that would be over 50% more capacity in there market.

Out of SMF, we have already seen HA announcing SMF-OGG + AS announcing 3x weekly SMF-LIH. So the capacity is already going up 50% if we assume they use narrowbody aircraft in both cases. And if WN enters with daily SMF-HNL also, we could see 80% more capacity. Currently, SMF is the highest yielding of the west coast markets i looked at. By the end of this summer, SMF will be the lowest yielding. I wouldn't be surprised for yield to drop from over $300 to close to $200.

Out of OAK/SJC, there is a lot more capacity here to absorb increases. If WN was to add 6 daily flights out of OAK/SJC to HI, it will have close to AS's current market share. There will probably be about 20 to 25% more capacity if we factor in additions by UA and HA also. More importantly, OAK/SJC-LIH are likely to be no longer monopolies, which would cause those 2 market to collapse in yield.

LA Basin is likely going to be the least affected by WN entrance, since it's the largest market. But even that, we are seeing aggressive price matching by existing players anticipating WN effect.

So I think the end product of this is significantly worse result for HA by the end of the year. It might even start to loose money again. AS will also be quite affected since it's monopolies at SAN/SMF/OAK/SJC are most likely to no longer be monopolies.
 
wnflyguy
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Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Sun Feb 17, 2019 8:58 pm

tphuang wrote:
so now that we've had several articles come out proclaiming that WN might get approved next week, I took a look at possible effect of WN entrance into HI market. Keep in mind, all of the numbers I'm posting is based on 2017Q3 to 2018Q3 data from BTS.

Keep in mind, there was very little capacity growth from mainland US to HI in 2016 and move of 2017. That was very good news for HA, as it had a banner year in 2017. That story changed in the past year as UA boosted its capacity and so did HA with the introduction of A321NEO. For example, this article showed that capacity to HI increased 12% in May of 2018, mostly on the other islands. http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/3807 ... uring-may/

Also keep in mind that HI tourism was affected last year by the volcano.

The numbers below does not include any flight to KOA since it crashed after the volcano incident. I looked at every airline out of west coast but focused mostly on the numbers of HA, AS and UA since they are most likely affected by any WN entrance.

First of all, LA Basin. It had about 5.6% extra capacity in Q3 of 2018 vs 2017 with 8.3% more flights. LF increased from 86.9% to 88.7%. UA increased by close to 5%. The biggest increase came from HA, which had the new daily flight on HNL-LGB + half daily flight more on LAX-OGG. It had close to 13% more capacity. AS had 4.5% more capacity due to switching from the high CAM ex-VX A320 to lower CASM B737.

The results were total yield dropping by 11.5%. UA dropped by 7.8%. HA dropped by 12.2%. AS dropped by 17.6%. In some case like HA and AS, the drop was partially due to using more lower CASM/RASM aircraft. But there were also some effect from the a general tougher fare environment to HI in 2018.

Secondly, to bay area. Here, there was basically no extra capacity YoY. The only addition was AS on SFO-KOA, which I did not include in my result and had terrible numbers. There were no other new routes. Other than that, HA capacity dropped a little bit due to late deliveries of A321NEO, while UA flights increased a little bit to make up for the drop in HA capacity.

The results were total yield dropping by 10%. UA dropped by 13.5%. HA dropped by 8%. AS dropped by 6.2%. Not surprisingly, UA additions led to the most drop in yield.

Next one is SAN. The major change this year was the entrance of HA into SAN-OGG market, which had huge effect on the pricing environment out of SAN. Capacity increased by 25% YoY, # of flights increased by 25% and LF dropped from 90.5% to 86.7%.

The results were total yield dropping by 14.2%. Both AS and HA dropped by about that much.

Next one is SMF. There was no major change here. Capacity dropped 1% and LF was up slightly. The results were yield dropping 5%, which was shared between AS and HA.

Final I looked at was PDX (even though WN is unlikely to enter here), because there was addition of HA on PDX-OGG. The capacity was up 18% and the number of flight was up 26%. The LF dropped from 89.5% to 82.6%. The overall yield was down 15.5%. HA's yield was down 18.6% and AS's yield was down 12.5%.

From looking at this, I think it's fair to say that overall fare environment was down 5 to 10% when factoring out capacity increases. Maybe that's caused by general domestic fare environment. Maybe it's due to the volcano. Or maybe it's due to nationwide increases in capacity. After that, there was another 5 to 10% drop in yield depending on the amount of additional capacity.

I think SAN/PDX is most to be studied here, since they saw 5 to 10% bigger drop in yield due to one additional daily HA flight (which caused 18 to 25% jump in capacity).

Now if we are to apply to each market that WN is going to enter.
Out of SAN, if WN even enters 2 out of 3 islands (not factoring in KOA). That would cause 35 to 40% more capacity there. Which could cause yield dropping another 15 to 25% from SAN to HI. If it enters all 3, then that would be over 50% more capacity in there market.

Out of SMF, we have already seen HA announcing SMF-OGG + AS announcing 3x weekly SMF-LIH. So the capacity is already going up 50% if we assume they use narrowbody aircraft in both cases. And if WN enters with daily SMF-HNL also, we could see 80% more capacity. Currently, SMF is the highest yielding of the west coast markets i looked at. By the end of this summer, SMF will be the lowest yielding. I wouldn't be surprised for yield to drop from over $300 to close to $200.

Out of OAK/SJC, there is a lot more capacity here to absorb increases. If WN was to add 6 daily flights out of OAK/SJC to HI, it will have close to AS's current market share. There will probably be about 20 to 25% more capacity if we factor in additions by UA and HA also. More importantly, OAK/SJC-LIH are likely to be no longer monopolies, which would cause those 2 market to collapse in yield.

LA Basin is likely going to be the least affected by WN entrance, since it's the largest market. But even that, we are seeing aggressive price matching by existing players anticipating WN effect.

So I think the end product of this is significantly worse result for HA by the end of the year. It might even start to loose money again. AS will also be quite affected since it's monopolies at SAN/SMF/OAK/SJC are most likely to no longer be monopolies.


Thanks for the information.
I see WN coming in and trashing yields to inter California levels which gives WN the ability to gain some market share especially with it's west coast frequent flyer sales base.
I don't see WN running anyone else out of the game.
But once WN starts limited inter island flying HA will feel the most cost pressure from WN.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
SWADawg
Posts: 660
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 6:43 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Sun Feb 17, 2019 11:40 pm

WN 8725 back in the air headed back to OAK as we speak.
My posts are my opinion only and do not reflect the views of Southwest Airlines
 
tphuang
Posts: 6045
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 1:19 am

wnflyguy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
so now that we've had several articles come out proclaiming that WN might get approved next week, I took a look at possible effect of WN entrance into HI market. Keep in mind, all of the numbers I'm posting is based on 2017Q3 to 2018Q3 data from BTS.

Keep in mind, there was very little capacity growth from mainland US to HI in 2016 and move of 2017. That was very good news for HA, as it had a banner year in 2017. That story changed in the past year as UA boosted its capacity and so did HA with the introduction of A321NEO. For example, this article showed that capacity to HI increased 12% in May of 2018, mostly on the other islands. http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/3807 ... uring-may/

Also keep in mind that HI tourism was affected last year by the volcano.

The numbers below does not include any flight to KOA since it crashed after the volcano incident. I looked at every airline out of west coast but focused mostly on the numbers of HA, AS and UA since they are most likely affected by any WN entrance.

First of all, LA Basin. It had about 5.6% extra capacity in Q3 of 2018 vs 2017 with 8.3% more flights. LF increased from 86.9% to 88.7%. UA increased by close to 5%. The biggest increase came from HA, which had the new daily flight on HNL-LGB + half daily flight more on LAX-OGG. It had close to 13% more capacity. AS had 4.5% more capacity due to switching from the high CAM ex-VX A320 to lower CASM B737.

The results were total yield dropping by 11.5%. UA dropped by 7.8%. HA dropped by 12.2%. AS dropped by 17.6%. In some case like HA and AS, the drop was partially due to using more lower CASM/RASM aircraft. But there were also some effect from the a general tougher fare environment to HI in 2018.

Secondly, to bay area. Here, there was basically no extra capacity YoY. The only addition was AS on SFO-KOA, which I did not include in my result and had terrible numbers. There were no other new routes. Other than that, HA capacity dropped a little bit due to late deliveries of A321NEO, while UA flights increased a little bit to make up for the drop in HA capacity.

The results were total yield dropping by 10%. UA dropped by 13.5%. HA dropped by 8%. AS dropped by 6.2%. Not surprisingly, UA additions led to the most drop in yield.

Next one is SAN. The major change this year was the entrance of HA into SAN-OGG market, which had huge effect on the pricing environment out of SAN. Capacity increased by 25% YoY, # of flights increased by 25% and LF dropped from 90.5% to 86.7%.

The results were total yield dropping by 14.2%. Both AS and HA dropped by about that much.

Next one is SMF. There was no major change here. Capacity dropped 1% and LF was up slightly. The results were yield dropping 5%, which was shared between AS and HA.

Final I looked at was PDX (even though WN is unlikely to enter here), because there was addition of HA on PDX-OGG. The capacity was up 18% and the number of flight was up 26%. The LF dropped from 89.5% to 82.6%. The overall yield was down 15.5%. HA's yield was down 18.6% and AS's yield was down 12.5%.

From looking at this, I think it's fair to say that overall fare environment was down 5 to 10% when factoring out capacity increases. Maybe that's caused by general domestic fare environment. Maybe it's due to the volcano. Or maybe it's due to nationwide increases in capacity. After that, there was another 5 to 10% drop in yield depending on the amount of additional capacity.

I think SAN/PDX is most to be studied here, since they saw 5 to 10% bigger drop in yield due to one additional daily HA flight (which caused 18 to 25% jump in capacity).

Now if we are to apply to each market that WN is going to enter.
Out of SAN, if WN even enters 2 out of 3 islands (not factoring in KOA). That would cause 35 to 40% more capacity there. Which could cause yield dropping another 15 to 25% from SAN to HI. If it enters all 3, then that would be over 50% more capacity in there market.

Out of SMF, we have already seen HA announcing SMF-OGG + AS announcing 3x weekly SMF-LIH. So the capacity is already going up 50% if we assume they use narrowbody aircraft in both cases. And if WN enters with daily SMF-HNL also, we could see 80% more capacity. Currently, SMF is the highest yielding of the west coast markets i looked at. By the end of this summer, SMF will be the lowest yielding. I wouldn't be surprised for yield to drop from over $300 to close to $200.

Out of OAK/SJC, there is a lot more capacity here to absorb increases. If WN was to add 6 daily flights out of OAK/SJC to HI, it will have close to AS's current market share. There will probably be about 20 to 25% more capacity if we factor in additions by UA and HA also. More importantly, OAK/SJC-LIH are likely to be no longer monopolies, which would cause those 2 market to collapse in yield.

LA Basin is likely going to be the least affected by WN entrance, since it's the largest market. But even that, we are seeing aggressive price matching by existing players anticipating WN effect.

So I think the end product of this is significantly worse result for HA by the end of the year. It might even start to loose money again. AS will also be quite affected since it's monopolies at SAN/SMF/OAK/SJC are most likely to no longer be monopolies.


Thanks for the information.
I see WN coming in and trashing yields to inter California levels which gives WN the ability to gain some market share especially with it's west coast frequent flyer sales base.
I don't see WN running anyone else out of the game.
But once WN starts limited inter island flying HA will feel the most cost pressure from WN.

Flyguy


Yes, that would be their end goal. WN said it takes 3 years for a route to turn profitable. So it's willing to loose money in HI for at least 3 years. Hard for me to imagine they won't at least break even by then. And the affect of causing HA or AS to fall back will be well worth it. And on top of that, it might help them win other more ff in bay area who otherwise have to go with UA. But in the end, I think this is all about their turf war with AS.

The interisland flying part is weird to me. I don't see WN sticking around on there. I took a look at the yields. Shockingly, the numbers are not what i expected. I think HA's profits are still mostly from flying to continental USA. In a couple of years, if HA continues to have anemic performance, it will be a takeover target.
 
mcdu
Posts: 1662
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2005 5:23 am

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:55 am

RWA380 wrote:
[list=][/list]
wnflyguy wrote:
WN first inter island flight it's technically on its way between ITO and HNL.

Flyguy


Great piece of info for Jeopardy or a few years down the road on A.net. I know I will remember it. Cool.


It’s a non event. Every airline flying to HI has had to conduct proving runs.
 
n562wn
Posts: 107
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2015 5:50 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:18 am

mcdu wrote:
RWA380 wrote:
[list=][/list]
wnflyguy wrote:
WN first inter island flight it's technically on its way between ITO and HNL.

Flyguy


Great piece of info for Jeopardy or a few years down the road on A.net. I know I will remember it. Cool.


It’s a non event. Every airline flying to HI has had to conduct proving runs.


Good grief. Are you really that daft? That is practically the definition of 'trivia'... information that lacks importance.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
My statements do not represent my former employer or my current employer and are my opinions only.
 
mcdu
Posts: 1662
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2005 5:23 am

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:46 am

n562wn wrote:
mcdu wrote:
RWA380 wrote:
[list=][/list]

Great piece of info for Jeopardy or a few years down the road on A.net. I know I will remember it. Cool.


It’s a non event. Every airline flying to HI has had to conduct proving runs.


Good grief. Are you really that daft? That is practically the definition of 'trivia'... information that lacks importance.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


It is Trvial instead of trivia. It is of absolutely no significance. It would be like knowing the date an aircraft had the lavs dumped for the first time.

Please help us as a civilization if this BS is a pub night quiz question.
 
n562wn
Posts: 107
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2015 5:50 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:57 am

mcdu wrote:
n562wn wrote:
mcdu wrote:

It’s a non event. Every airline flying to HI has had to conduct proving runs.


Good grief. Are you really that daft? That is practically the definition of 'trivia'... information that lacks importance.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


It is Trvial instead of trivia. It is of absolutely no significance. It would be like knowing the date an aircraft had the lavs dumped for the first time.

Please help us as a civilization if this BS is a pub night quiz question.


Your hatred is noted.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
My statements do not represent my former employer or my current employer and are my opinions only.
 
tomaheath
Posts: 672
Joined: Wed Nov 12, 2014 11:58 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 12:15 pm

Are there any photos of the aircraft at OGG or ITO?
 
wnflyguy
Topic Author
Posts: 2255
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 1:41 pm

tomaheath wrote:
Are there any photos of the aircraft at OGG or ITO?

Only picture I've seen was the Instagram picture on the ITO airport page.
OGG will see its first WN aircraft today I believe at 15:00 local HST.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
wnflyguy
Topic Author
Posts: 2255
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 2:49 pm

So every day another conspiracy theory comes out on when WN will announce Hawaii ticket sales.
Like schedule speculation updates in good clean fun love it or hate it them. I've posted them all. (Haters will always hate)

This morning crack pot guess actually makes most sense and seems more stable.
After the Flights wrap up on Tuesday.
By Friday if all things passed and no further flights will be required by the FAA should give WN approval for ETOPS flying.

The following Monday afternoon at the final WN pep Rally in DAL at 3pm Herb 11:am HST via a live stream with HNL&OGG employees WN will announce it's first official first day of service and release tickets for sale.

Conspiracy theories connecting the Dots.
11 AM HST because it's been almost 11yrs since WN lost its connection to Hawaii from the ATA bankruptcy.
WN said 30 days from sale to fly would put first flight Monday March 25 2019.

WN has been giving its Staff Mahalo Monday's Hawaii ETOPS updates so is fitting that they wait to celebrate with their long planned and delayed Hawaii announcement at the HDQ Monday pep Rally.

Today and tomorrow WN flying OAK-OGG-DAL.

Fingers crossed
Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
osupoke07
Posts: 152
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 1:39 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 3:03 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
So spin going around that 11 years ago on April 2 2008 WN codeshare partner the original Hawaii low fare leader ATA filed for chapter 11 and shutdown on April 3 2008. 11 years Later on Big Wednesday (Surfer Talk) April 3 2019 WN will be surfing the low fares back into Hawaii with the first 11 New Southwest nonstops flights into Hawaii.

For those of that may have forgotten ATA was WN original connection to Hawaii.

If WN actually starts on that date WN should offer all those original WN connecting passengers affected by the original shutdown flights on the new WN service.

Now do I actually think WN will start on this date? No. But it's possible because if WN gets the approval by next week. It give WN just enough time for Hawaii Bid Lines come out for April flying for
Both the Pilot and FAs.

Flyguy


I do remember as I was booked to go to Hawaii via Southwest/ATA in summer 2008. Southwest was extremely accommodating when ATA went under.
MD82, MD83, MD88, B717, B732, B733, B735, B737, B738, B739, B752, B763, B77W, CR2, CR7, CR9, A320, A321
 
mcdu
Posts: 1662
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2005 5:23 am

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 3:05 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
So spin going around that 11 years ago on April 2 2008 WN codeshare partner the original Hawaii low fare leader ATA filed for chapter 11 and shutdown on April 3 2008. 11 years Later on Big Wednesday (Surfer Talk) April 3 2019 WN will be surfing the low fares back into Hawaii with the first 11 New Southwest nonstops flights into Hawaii.

For those of that may have forgotten ATA was WN original connection to Hawaii.

If WN actually starts on that date WN should offer all those original WN connecting passengers affected by the original shutdown flights on the new WN service.

Now do I actually think WN will start on this date? No. But it's possible because if WN gets the approval by next week. It give WN just enough time for Hawaii Bid Lines come out for April flying for
Both the Pilot and FAs.

Flyguy


An 11 year delay is something to boast about? I suppose when on the average day WN is at 35% OT in daily ops an 11 year delay might be celebratory.
 
mcdu
Posts: 1662
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2005 5:23 am

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 3:09 pm

What is happening with the mechanics and Hawaii. Aircraft require an ETOPS service check before each flight. Could this cause further delays due to employee unrest?
 
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SANFan
Posts: 5550
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 3:13 pm

tphuang wrote:
Out of SMF, we have already seen HA announcing SMF-OGG + AS announcing 3x weekly SMF-LIH.

I assume you mean AS is adding SMF-KOA which is already flying (seasonally I believe); if AS is going to fly SMF-LIH, this is the first I've heard of it.

bb
 
mcdu
Posts: 1662
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2005 5:23 am

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 3:48 pm

osupoke07 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
So spin going around that 11 years ago on April 2 2008 WN codeshare partner the original Hawaii low fare leader ATA filed for chapter 11 and shutdown on April 3 2008. 11 years Later on Big Wednesday (Surfer Talk) April 3 2019 WN will be surfing the low fares back into Hawaii with the first 11 New Southwest nonstops flights into Hawaii.

For those of that may have forgotten ATA was WN original connection to Hawaii.

If WN actually starts on that date WN should offer all those original WN connecting passengers affected by the original shutdown flights on the new WN service.

Now do I actually think WN will start on this date? No. But it's possible because if WN gets the approval by next week. It give WN just enough time for Hawaii Bid Lines come out for April flying for
Both the Pilot and FAs.

Flyguy


I do remember as I was booked to go to Hawaii via Southwest/ATA in summer 2008. Southwest was extremely accommodating when ATA went under.


How did they get you to and from Hawaii?
 
User avatar
barney captain
Posts: 2414
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2001 5:47 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 4:04 pm

n562wn wrote:
Your hatred is noted.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Try it, you'll like it - :D

mcdu, who is currently on your ignore list, made this post.
Display this post.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
osupoke07
Posts: 152
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 1:39 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:33 pm

mcdu wrote:
osupoke07 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
So spin going around that 11 years ago on April 2 2008 WN codeshare partner the original Hawaii low fare leader ATA filed for chapter 11 and shutdown on April 3 2008. 11 years Later on Big Wednesday (Surfer Talk) April 3 2019 WN will be surfing the low fares back into Hawaii with the first 11 New Southwest nonstops flights into Hawaii.

For those of that may have forgotten ATA was WN original connection to Hawaii.

If WN actually starts on that date WN should offer all those original WN connecting passengers affected by the original shutdown flights on the new WN service.

Now do I actually think WN will start on this date? No. But it's possible because if WN gets the approval by next week. It give WN just enough time for Hawaii Bid Lines come out for April flying for
Both the Pilot and FAs.

Flyguy


I do remember as I was booked to go to Hawaii via Southwest/ATA in summer 2008. Southwest was extremely accommodating when ATA went under.


How did they get you to and from Hawaii?


Gave me a full refund of my purchase and I booked on AA instead.
MD82, MD83, MD88, B717, B732, B733, B735, B737, B738, B739, B752, B763, B77W, CR2, CR7, CR9, A320, A321
 
tphuang
Posts: 6045
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:35 pm

SANFan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Out of SMF, we have already seen HA announcing SMF-OGG + AS announcing 3x weekly SMF-LIH.

I assume you mean AS is adding SMF-KOA which is already flying (seasonally I believe); if AS is going to fly SMF-LIH, this is the first I've heard of it.

bb

Yes, you are 100% right. I just assumed it was LIH due to KOA being such a disaster last summer.

For this past summer, AS's best markets in the cases I looked at were SJC-LIH, SAN-OGG and SMF-OGG.

wnflyguy wrote:
So every day another conspiracy theory comes out on when WN will announce Hawaii ticket sales.
Like schedule speculation updates in good clean fun love it or hate it them. I've posted them all. (Haters will always hate)

This morning crack pot guess actually makes most sense and seems more stable.
After the Flights wrap up on Tuesday.
By Friday if all things passed and no further flights will be required by the FAA should give WN approval for ETOPS flying.

The following Monday afternoon at the final WN pep Rally in DAL at 3pm Herb 11:am HST via a live stream with HNL&OGG employees WN will announce it's first official first day of service and release tickets for sale.

Conspiracy theories connecting the Dots.
11 AM HST because it's been almost 11yrs since WN lost its connection to Hawaii from the ATA bankruptcy.
WN said 30 days from sale to fly would put first flight Monday March 25 2019.

WN has been giving its Staff Mahalo Monday's Hawaii ETOPS updates so is fitting that they wait to celebrate with their long planned and delayed Hawaii announcement at the HDQ Monday pep Rally.

Today and tomorrow WN flying OAK-OGG-DAL.

Fingers crossed
Flyguy


It's all good to speculate but the entire process really has taken long enough. I will believe the start date when it finally get announced. If they are entering all 8 markets in the OAK/SJC/SAN/SMF-OGG/HNL right off the bat. That's a pretty grand entrance.
 
User avatar
barney captain
Posts: 2414
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2001 5:47 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:36 pm

First OAK-OGG flight underway. Filed at FL280 -

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SWA8725
Southeast Of Disorder
 
SWADawg
Posts: 660
Joined: Tue Dec 03, 2013 6:43 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:18 pm

I thought it was supposed to be a 38M? Still shows a 738. Oh well.
My posts are my opinion only and do not reflect the views of Southwest Airlines
 
wnflyguy
Topic Author
Posts: 2255
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:20 pm

tphuang wrote:
SANFan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Out of SMF, we have already seen HA announcing SMF-OGG + AS announcing 3x weekly SMF-LIH.

I assume you mean AS is adding SMF-KOA which is already flying (seasonally I believe); if AS is going to fly SMF-LIH, this is the first I've heard of it.

bb

Yes, you are 100% right. I just assumed it was LIH due to KOA being such a disaster last summer.

For this past summer, AS's best markets in the cases I looked at were SJC-LIH, SAN-OGG and SMF-OGG.

wnflyguy wrote:
So every day another conspiracy theory comes out on when WN will announce Hawaii ticket sales.
Like schedule speculation updates in good clean fun love it or hate it them. I've posted them all. (Haters will always hate)

This morning crack pot guess actually makes most sense and seems more stable.
After the Flights wrap up on Tuesday.
By Friday if all things passed and no further flights will be required by the FAA should give WN approval for ETOPS flying.

The following Monday afternoon at the final WN pep Rally in DAL at 3pm Herb 11:am HST via a live stream with HNL&OGG employees WN will announce it's first official first day of service and release tickets for sale.

Conspiracy theories connecting the Dots.
11 AM HST because it's been almost 11yrs since WN lost its connection to Hawaii from the ATA bankruptcy.
WN said 30 days from sale to fly would put first flight Monday March 25 2019.

WN has been giving its Staff Mahalo Monday's Hawaii ETOPS updates so is fitting that they wait to celebrate with their long planned and delayed Hawaii announcement at the HDQ Monday pep Rally.

Today and tomorrow WN flying OAK-OGG-DAL.

Fingers crossed
Flyguy


It's all good to speculate but the entire process really has taken long enough. I will believe the start date when it finally get announced. If they are entering all 8 markets in the OAK/SJC/SAN/SMF-OGG/HNL right off the bat. That's a pretty grand entrance.


GK has said Hawaii will be a quick ramp up of service. With the delays already from the slower than expected FAA Etops approval.
I see Them starting with right out of the gate in April.
OAK -1 OGG,2 HNL
SMF 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SJC 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SAN 1 OGG,1 HNL

MAY will open KOA with 1 Daily flight to OAK,SMF,SJC,SAN.

JUNE Will open LIH with 1 Daily to OAK and SAN.

September you will see ITO open with a Daily OAK flight plus inter island service.
Plus introduction of limited Inter island flights.
Within the cities.

November- December
You will see 1 flight a day from LAX to all 5 cities.
I wouldn't be surprised if Holiday the next year summer only seasonal Saturday only service from
Places like PDX,SEA,LGB,ONT.

2020 if they do receive the MAX7 see DEN,PHX and LAS added.

Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
User avatar
barney captain
Posts: 2414
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2001 5:47 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:22 pm

SWADawg wrote:
I thought it was supposed to be a 38M? Still shows a 738. Oh well.


It was showing that but I'm fairly sure it was an error. Up until today it was showing a 738 over to OGG with a MAX coming back. I suspect those were generic placeholder entries for crew scheduling is all.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
User avatar
barney captain
Posts: 2414
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2001 5:47 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:24 pm

November- December
You will see 1 flight a day from LAX to all 5 cities.
I wouldn't be surprised if Holiday the next year summer only seasonal Saturday only service from
Places like PDX,SEA,LGB,ONT.


LAX has specifically been mentioned by upper management as not under consideration. They have also stated this is strictly a CA-HI venture. Anything beyond that is also not being considered.Maybe one day, but not for a while.
Last edited by barney captain on Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:29 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
tomaheath
Posts: 672
Joined: Wed Nov 12, 2014 11:58 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:49 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
SANFan wrote:
I assume you mean AS is adding SMF-KOA which is already flying (seasonally I believe); if AS is going to fly SMF-LIH, this is the first I've heard of it.

bb

Yes, you are 100% right. I just assumed it was LIH due to KOA being such a disaster last summer.

For this past summer, AS's best markets in the cases I looked at were SJC-LIH, SAN-OGG and SMF-OGG.

wnflyguy wrote:
So every day another conspiracy theory comes out on when WN will announce Hawaii ticket sales.
Like schedule speculation updates in good clean fun love it or hate it them. I've posted them all. (Haters will always hate)

This morning crack pot guess actually makes most sense and seems more stable.
After the Flights wrap up on Tuesday.
By Friday if all things passed and no further flights will be required by the FAA should give WN approval for ETOPS flying.

The following Monday afternoon at the final WN pep Rally in DAL at 3pm Herb 11:am HST via a live stream with HNL&OGG employees WN will announce it's first official first day of service and release tickets for sale.

Conspiracy theories connecting the Dots.
11 AM HST because it's been almost 11yrs since WN lost its connection to Hawaii from the ATA bankruptcy.
WN said 30 days from sale to fly would put first flight Monday March 25 2019.

WN has been giving its Staff Mahalo Monday's Hawaii ETOPS updates so is fitting that they wait to celebrate with their long planned and delayed Hawaii announcement at the HDQ Monday pep Rally.

Today and tomorrow WN flying OAK-OGG-DAL.

Fingers crossed
Flyguy


It's all good to speculate but the entire process really has taken long enough. I will believe the start date when it finally get announced. If they are entering all 8 markets in the OAK/SJC/SAN/SMF-OGG/HNL right off the bat. That's a pretty grand entrance.


GK has said Hawaii will be a quick ramp up of service. With the delays already from the slower than expected FAA Etops approval.
I see Them starting with right out of the gate in April.
OAK -1 OGG,2 HNL
SMF 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SJC 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SAN 1 OGG,1 HNL

MAY will open KOA with 1 Daily flight to OAK,SMF,SJC,SAN.

JUNE Will open LIH with 1 Daily to OAK and SAN.

September you will see ITO open with a Daily OAK flight plus inter island service.
Plus introduction of limited Inter island flights.
Within the cities.

November- December
You will see 1 flight a day from LAX to all 5 cities.
I wouldn't be surprised if Holiday the next year summer only seasonal Saturday only service from
Places like PDX,SEA,LGB,ONT.

2020 if they do receive the MAX7 see DEN,PHX and LAS added.

Flyguy

If your predictions are correct when could inter island service be bookable? I’m gonna traveling ogg ito hnl at the end of September. I’m holding back on booking the HI flights just incase WN comes available.
 
737max8
Posts: 702
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2015 4:13 am

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:18 pm

People talking about the MAX going...just no. Not yet :)

Announcing a start date at the Rally next Monday would be really cool!
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
Flown on: 717 733 734 735 736 737 738 739 7M8 744 744ER 752 753 762 763 772 773ER 788 789 A220 A319/20/21 A332 A333 A339 A343 A346 A359 A388
 
Bazooka
Posts: 25
Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2006 6:01 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:23 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
SANFan wrote:
I assume you mean AS is adding SMF-KOA which is already flying (seasonally I believe); if AS is going to fly SMF-LIH, this is the first I've heard of it.

bb

Yes, you are 100% right. I just assumed it was LIH due to KOA being such a disaster last summer.

For this past summer, AS's best markets in the cases I looked at were SJC-LIH, SAN-OGG and SMF-OGG.

wnflyguy wrote:
So every day another conspiracy theory comes out on when WN will announce Hawaii ticket sales.
Like schedule speculation updates in good clean fun love it or hate it them. I've posted them all. (Haters will always hate)

This morning crack pot guess actually makes most sense and seems more stable.
After the Flights wrap up on Tuesday.
By Friday if all things passed and no further flights will be required by the FAA should give WN approval for ETOPS flying.

The following Monday afternoon at the final WN pep Rally in DAL at 3pm Herb 11:am HST via a live stream with HNL&OGG employees WN will announce it's first official first day of service and release tickets for sale.

Conspiracy theories connecting the Dots.
11 AM HST because it's been almost 11yrs since WN lost its connection to Hawaii from the ATA bankruptcy.
WN said 30 days from sale to fly would put first flight Monday March 25 2019.

WN has been giving its Staff Mahalo Monday's Hawaii ETOPS updates so is fitting that they wait to celebrate with their long planned and delayed Hawaii announcement at the HDQ Monday pep Rally.

Today and tomorrow WN flying OAK-OGG-DAL.

Fingers crossed
Flyguy


It's all good to speculate but the entire process really has taken long enough. I will believe the start date when it finally get announced. If they are entering all 8 markets in the OAK/SJC/SAN/SMF-OGG/HNL right off the bat. That's a pretty grand entrance.


GK has said Hawaii will be a quick ramp up of service. With the delays already from the slower than expected FAA Etops approval.
I see Them starting with right out of the gate in April.
OAK -1 OGG,2 HNL
SMF 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SJC 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SAN 1 OGG,1 HNL

MAY will open KOA with 1 Daily flight to OAK,SMF,SJC,SAN.

JUNE Will open LIH with 1 Daily to OAK and SAN.

September you will see ITO open with a Daily OAK flight plus inter island service.
Plus introduction of limited Inter island flights.
Within the cities.

November- December
You will see 1 flight a day from LAX to all 5 cities.
I wouldn't be surprised if Holiday the next year summer only seasonal Saturday only service from
Places like PDX,SEA,LGB,ONT.

2020 if they do receive the MAX7 see DEN,PHX and LAS added.

Flyguy


Any SNA - HNL with the MAX7?
 
hoya
Posts: 547
Joined: Wed Jun 23, 2004 2:25 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:23 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
SANFan wrote:
I assume you mean AS is adding SMF-KOA which is already flying (seasonally I believe); if AS is going to fly SMF-LIH, this is the first I've heard of it.

bb

Yes, you are 100% right. I just assumed it was LIH due to KOA being such a disaster last summer.

For this past summer, AS's best markets in the cases I looked at were SJC-LIH, SAN-OGG and SMF-OGG.

wnflyguy wrote:
So every day another conspiracy theory comes out on when WN will announce Hawaii ticket sales.
Like schedule speculation updates in good clean fun love it or hate it them. I've posted them all. (Haters will always hate)

This morning crack pot guess actually makes most sense and seems more stable.
After the Flights wrap up on Tuesday.
By Friday if all things passed and no further flights will be required by the FAA should give WN approval for ETOPS flying.

The following Monday afternoon at the final WN pep Rally in DAL at 3pm Herb 11:am HST via a live stream with HNL&OGG employees WN will announce it's first official first day of service and release tickets for sale.

Conspiracy theories connecting the Dots.
11 AM HST because it's been almost 11yrs since WN lost its connection to Hawaii from the ATA bankruptcy.
WN said 30 days from sale to fly would put first flight Monday March 25 2019.

WN has been giving its Staff Mahalo Monday's Hawaii ETOPS updates so is fitting that they wait to celebrate with their long planned and delayed Hawaii announcement at the HDQ Monday pep Rally.

Today and tomorrow WN flying OAK-OGG-DAL.

Fingers crossed
Flyguy


It's all good to speculate but the entire process really has taken long enough. I will believe the start date when it finally get announced. If they are entering all 8 markets in the OAK/SJC/SAN/SMF-OGG/HNL right off the bat. That's a pretty grand entrance.


GK has said Hawaii will be a quick ramp up of service. With the delays already from the slower than expected FAA Etops approval.
I see Them starting with right out of the gate in April.
OAK -1 OGG,2 HNL
SMF 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SJC 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SAN 1 OGG,1 HNL

MAY will open KOA with 1 Daily flight to OAK,SMF,SJC,SAN.

JUNE Will open LIH with 1 Daily to OAK and SAN.

September you will see ITO open with a Daily OAK flight plus inter island service.
Plus introduction of limited Inter island flights.
Within the cities.

November- December
You will see 1 flight a day from LAX to all 5 cities.
I wouldn't be surprised if Holiday the next year summer only seasonal Saturday only service from
Places like PDX,SEA,LGB,ONT.

2020 if they do receive the MAX7 see DEN,PHX and LAS added.

Flyguy


They want to burn money by flying to ITO? Even UA can't maintain daily service to LAX in off-peak periods - it was 3x weekly in Jan, and I think it's back to 5x weekly now.

Separately, does WN have any 738s with the Short-field Performance Package? If not, how many held seats can we expect on any 738 flights out of OGG? LIH? Or will OGG and LIH be MAX8 markets?
Hoya Saxa!!
 
WN732
Posts: 923
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2011 12:49 am

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:20 am

hoya wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Yes, you are 100% right. I just assumed it was LIH due to KOA being such a disaster last summer.

For this past summer, AS's best markets in the cases I looked at were SJC-LIH, SAN-OGG and SMF-OGG.



It's all good to speculate but the entire process really has taken long enough. I will believe the start date when it finally get announced. If they are entering all 8 markets in the OAK/SJC/SAN/SMF-OGG/HNL right off the bat. That's a pretty grand entrance.


GK has said Hawaii will be a quick ramp up of service. With the delays already from the slower than expected FAA Etops approval.
I see Them starting with right out of the gate in April.
OAK -1 OGG,2 HNL
SMF 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SJC 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SAN 1 OGG,1 HNL

MAY will open KOA with 1 Daily flight to OAK,SMF,SJC,SAN.

JUNE Will open LIH with 1 Daily to OAK and SAN.

September you will see ITO open with a Daily OAK flight plus inter island service.
Plus introduction of limited Inter island flights.
Within the cities.

November- December
You will see 1 flight a day from LAX to all 5 cities.
I wouldn't be surprised if Holiday the next year summer only seasonal Saturday only service from
Places like PDX,SEA,LGB,ONT.

2020 if they do receive the MAX7 see DEN,PHX and LAS added.

Flyguy


They want to burn money by flying to ITO? Even UA can't maintain daily service to LAX in off-peak periods - it was 3x weekly in Jan, and I think it's back to 5x weekly now.

Separately, does WN have any 738s with the Short-field Performance Package? If not, how many held seats can we expect on any 738 flights out of OGG? LIH? Or will OGG and LIH be MAX8 markets?


They all have short field package installed.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6045
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:34 am

wnflyguy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
SANFan wrote:
I assume you mean AS is adding SMF-KOA which is already flying (seasonally I believe); if AS is going to fly SMF-LIH, this is the first I've heard of it.

bb

Yes, you are 100% right. I just assumed it was LIH due to KOA being such a disaster last summer.

For this past summer, AS's best markets in the cases I looked at were SJC-LIH, SAN-OGG and SMF-OGG.

wnflyguy wrote:
So every day another conspiracy theory comes out on when WN will announce Hawaii ticket sales.
Like schedule speculation updates in good clean fun love it or hate it them. I've posted them all. (Haters will always hate)

This morning crack pot guess actually makes most sense and seems more stable.
After the Flights wrap up on Tuesday.
By Friday if all things passed and no further flights will be required by the FAA should give WN approval for ETOPS flying.

The following Monday afternoon at the final WN pep Rally in DAL at 3pm Herb 11:am HST via a live stream with HNL&OGG employees WN will announce it's first official first day of service and release tickets for sale.

Conspiracy theories connecting the Dots.
11 AM HST because it's been almost 11yrs since WN lost its connection to Hawaii from the ATA bankruptcy.
WN said 30 days from sale to fly would put first flight Monday March 25 2019.

WN has been giving its Staff Mahalo Monday's Hawaii ETOPS updates so is fitting that they wait to celebrate with their long planned and delayed Hawaii announcement at the HDQ Monday pep Rally.

Today and tomorrow WN flying OAK-OGG-DAL.

Fingers crossed
Flyguy


It's all good to speculate but the entire process really has taken long enough. I will believe the start date when it finally get announced. If they are entering all 8 markets in the OAK/SJC/SAN/SMF-OGG/HNL right off the bat. That's a pretty grand entrance.


GK has said Hawaii will be a quick ramp up of service. With the delays already from the slower than expected FAA Etops approval.
I see Them starting with right out of the gate in April.
OAK -1 OGG,2 HNL
SMF 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SJC 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SAN 1 OGG,1 HNL

MAY will open KOA with 1 Daily flight to OAK,SMF,SJC,SAN.

JUNE Will open LIH with 1 Daily to OAK and SAN.

September you will see ITO open with a Daily OAK flight plus inter island service.
Plus introduction of limited Inter island flights.
Within the cities.

November- December
You will see 1 flight a day from LAX to all 5 cities.
I wouldn't be surprised if Holiday the next year summer only seasonal Saturday only service from
Places like PDX,SEA,LGB,ONT.

2020 if they do receive the MAX7 see DEN,PHX and LAS added.

Flyguy


While we are at it. I will make my predictions to for the 4 cities they talked about.

I think inter island flights will be short lived. I can't see that lasting too long.

To start off,
OAK-HNL/OGG
SJC-HNL
SAN-HNL/OGG
SMF-HNL

And after a few month
OAK-LIH/KOA
SMF-LIH
SAN-KOA
SJC-OGG

If they are entering LAX, then
LAX-HNL/OGG

I can't see SMF having much more.
To put things in perspective. SMF is already getting 50% more capacity this year. I can't see SMF-OGG supporting 3 carriers or SMF-KOA supporting 2 carriers. It's possible they will stop SMF at just HNL. Even with that, SMF is going to see some carriers dropping out soon enough.

I'd imagine AS would pull out of OAK to HI pretty soon. They just can't compete with the connections WN has at OAK. OAK is already their weakest HI routes.

SAN/SJC will be interesting to see. 3 additional daily flights at SAN from WN next year will be probably 40% additional capacity. And that's if we assume HA doesn't enter more SAN markets. SJC is a more fluid market. Since OAK is the primary station, they might start off conservatively at SJC.
 
hiloboy1
Posts: 35
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2006 6:21 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Tue Feb 19, 2019 2:15 am

I have a Photo of aircraft in Hilo, but have no clue how to post it.
 
seven3seven
Posts: 294
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2005 6:55 am

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:34 am

I predict inter island flights begin in April at the very latest. Anyone wanna bet?
My views are mine alone and are not that of any of my fellow employees, officers, or directors at my company
 
wnflyguy
Topic Author
Posts: 2255
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:26 am

seven3seven wrote:
I predict inter island flights begin in April at the very latest. Anyone wanna bet?

Anything possible at this point my inter island flight predictions for HNL With limited Inter island at the start.

HNL
.......................05:00 OGG-SJC
.......................05:10 KOA-SMF
.......................05:20 LIH-SAN
.......................06:00 OGG
LIH 05:45_____07:00 OAK-LAX
KOA 05:50____07:10 SAN-DEN
OGG 05:55____07:20 SJC-LAS
OGG 09:00____10:20 SMF-PHX
OAK 11:00 ____12:20 OGG
SAN 11:00 ____12:20 KOA
SMF 11:05 ____ 12:30 SAN-SLC
SJC 11:10 ____ 13:00 OAK-LAX
OGG 15:30 ___16:30 OGG
KOA 15:30 ____16:30 KOA
SAN 16:30____19:00 LIH
OGG 19:30 ___ 20:30 OGG
KOA 19:30 ____ 20:30 KOA
LIH 23:00.........................
OGG 23:30......................
KOA 23:40 ......................
OAK 23:50......................

My guesses Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
AirFiero
Posts: 1552
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:43 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Tue Feb 19, 2019 7:19 pm

tphuang wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Yes, you are 100% right. I just assumed it was LIH due to KOA being such a disaster last summer.

For this past summer, AS's best markets in the cases I looked at were SJC-LIH, SAN-OGG and SMF-OGG.



It's all good to speculate but the entire process really has taken long enough. I will believe the start date when it finally get announced. If they are entering all 8 markets in the OAK/SJC/SAN/SMF-OGG/HNL right off the bat. That's a pretty grand entrance.


GK has said Hawaii will be a quick ramp up of service. With the delays already from the slower than expected FAA Etops approval.
I see Them starting with right out of the gate in April.
OAK -1 OGG,2 HNL
SMF 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SJC 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SAN 1 OGG,1 HNL

MAY will open KOA with 1 Daily flight to OAK,SMF,SJC,SAN.

JUNE Will open LIH with 1 Daily to OAK and SAN.

September you will see ITO open with a Daily OAK flight plus inter island service.
Plus introduction of limited Inter island flights.
Within the cities.

November- December
You will see 1 flight a day from LAX to all 5 cities.
I wouldn't be surprised if Holiday the next year summer only seasonal Saturday only service from
Places like PDX,SEA,LGB,ONT.

2020 if they do receive the MAX7 see DEN,PHX and LAS added.

Flyguy


While we are at it. I will make my predictions to for the 4 cities they talked about.

I think inter island flights will be short lived. I can't see that lasting too long.

To start off,
OAK-HNL/OGG
SJC-HNL
SAN-HNL/OGG
SMF-HNL

And after a few month
OAK-LIH/KOA
SMF-LIH
SAN-KOA
SJC-OGG

If they are entering LAX, then
LAX-HNL/OGG

I can't see SMF having much more.
To put things in perspective. SMF is already getting 50% more capacity this year. I can't see SMF-OGG supporting 3 carriers or SMF-KOA supporting 2 carriers. It's possible they will stop SMF at just HNL. Even with that, SMF is going to see some carriers dropping out soon enough.

I'd imagine AS would pull out of OAK to HI pretty soon. They just can't compete with the connections WN has at OAK. OAK is already their weakest HI routes.

SAN/SJC will be interesting to see. 3 additional daily flights at SAN from WN next year will be probably 40% additional capacity. And that's if we assume HA doesn't enter more SAN markets. SJC is a more fluid market. Since OAK is the primary station, they might start off conservatively at SJC.


Wouldn’t a possible key to success with all this new capacity be through and connecting flights to CONUS cities without direct flights to Hawaiian destinations? Or in the case of WN, getting passengers from other airlines who would otherwise prefer WN but now can fly WN? The Southwest effect, in a way?
 
tphuang
Posts: 6045
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Tue Feb 19, 2019 7:34 pm

AirFiero wrote:
tphuang wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:

GK has said Hawaii will be a quick ramp up of service. With the delays already from the slower than expected FAA Etops approval.
I see Them starting with right out of the gate in April.
OAK -1 OGG,2 HNL
SMF 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SJC 1 OGG, 1 HNL
SAN 1 OGG,1 HNL

MAY will open KOA with 1 Daily flight to OAK,SMF,SJC,SAN.

JUNE Will open LIH with 1 Daily to OAK and SAN.

September you will see ITO open with a Daily OAK flight plus inter island service.
Plus introduction of limited Inter island flights.
Within the cities.

November- December
You will see 1 flight a day from LAX to all 5 cities.
I wouldn't be surprised if Holiday the next year summer only seasonal Saturday only service from
Places like PDX,SEA,LGB,ONT.

2020 if they do receive the MAX7 see DEN,PHX and LAS added.

Flyguy


While we are at it. I will make my predictions to for the 4 cities they talked about.

I think inter island flights will be short lived. I can't see that lasting too long.

To start off,
OAK-HNL/OGG
SJC-HNL
SAN-HNL/OGG
SMF-HNL

And after a few month
OAK-LIH/KOA
SMF-LIH
SAN-KOA
SJC-OGG

If they are entering LAX, then
LAX-HNL/OGG

I can't see SMF having much more.
To put things in perspective. SMF is already getting 50% more capacity this year. I can't see SMF-OGG supporting 3 carriers or SMF-KOA supporting 2 carriers. It's possible they will stop SMF at just HNL. Even with that, SMF is going to see some carriers dropping out soon enough.

I'd imagine AS would pull out of OAK to HI pretty soon. They just can't compete with the connections WN has at OAK. OAK is already their weakest HI routes.

SAN/SJC will be interesting to see. 3 additional daily flights at SAN from WN next year will be probably 40% additional capacity. And that's if we assume HA doesn't enter more SAN markets. SJC is a more fluid market. Since OAK is the primary station, they might start off conservatively at SJC.


Wouldn’t a possible key to success with all this new capacity be through and connecting flights to CONUS cities without direct flights to Hawaiian destinations? Or in the case of WN, getting passengers from other airlines who would otherwise prefer WN but now can fly WN? The Southwest effect, in a way?


Yes, I would expect that to be the case. Especially at OAK, with WN's strong ff base there and all the connection options, I would imagine it's the easiest one for WN to turn profitable.

But at SMF/SAN, having 50% or 80% extra capacity to HI is still going to just kill the yields. I would expect WN to hurt legacy carriers also since they will be picking up some connection passengers from middle of america who would otherwise connect at SFO/LAX/PHX/DEN.
 
User avatar
FA9295
Posts: 1770
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 7:44 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:20 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
LIH 23:00.........................
OGG 23:30......................
KOA 23:40 ......................
OAK 23:50......................

My guesses Flyguy

So if I'm reading these one's right that you guessed, would they be red-eye flights? Southwest currently doesn't have any red-eye flights at all...
 
User avatar
barney captain
Posts: 2414
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2001 5:47 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:26 pm

No redeyes. Expect mid-morning departures from CA, with mid-afternoon returns from HI. OAK may see an additional departure later in the day. It's what the CA tourist market dictates.

OGG-DAL airborne -

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SWA8725
Southeast Of Disorder
 
mcdu
Posts: 1662
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2005 5:23 am

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:42 pm

barney captain wrote:
No redeyes. Expect mid-morning departures from CA, with mid-afternoon returns from HI. OAK may see an additional departure later in the day. It's what the CA tourist market dictates.


Not having all nighters may prove to be a really bad decision. You will not be able to get people from Hawaii onward to many places east of California without spending a night on the west coast. Really limiting your customer bases options. So much for anyone on the east coast using WN to Hawaii without a large additional cost or inconvenience.
 
wnflyguy
Topic Author
Posts: 2255
Joined: Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:58 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:43 pm

FA9295 wrote:
wnflyguy wrote:
LIH 23:00.........................
OGG 23:30......................
KOA 23:40 ......................
OAK 23:50......................

My guesses Flyguy

So if I'm reading these one's right that you guessed, would they be red-eye flights? Southwest currently doesn't have any red-eye flights at all...


No those would be the 4 daily RON aircraft at HNL.
It was my guess on what a Daily gate flight schedule might look like At HNL by summer time
That's if WN were to start off with limited Inter island flights quickly.
WN is not expected to Have Red Eyes added to Hawaii Until 2020/21.( why a delay who knows it's WN)
And we know with the 800/MAX8 will not be running a high frequency against HA 717's.
We also know the 4 ramp gates in HNL were a land grab to have their own gates vs the 29 CUTE gates that had unavailable Prime time slots. HNL ramp gates will definitely not be the quick turn BUR of Hawaii.
Having 4 dedicated Gates was the linchpin Vs WN decision to do limited Inter island flights. If they were sharing gates spread out here and there on the 29 other gates it would NOT be passengers friendly for connections. Or easy on a staffing level.

If and when WN adds Red Eyes I would definitely see all 4 of those Birds Head West.
And be replaced by a Late night midnight to 2am inbound flights from California bringing in Connections from other Midwest/eastern markets via California.

Hope that explains it.
Flyguy
My Wings are clipped just another Retired Airline person. The Ultimate Armchair out of the loop airline industry geek. Aloha Mr Hand!
 
User avatar
barney captain
Posts: 2414
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2001 5:47 pm

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Tue Feb 19, 2019 9:00 pm

mcdu, who is currently on your ignore list, made this post.
Display this post.
Southeast Of Disorder
 
seven3seven
Posts: 294
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2005 6:55 am

Re: Updated: WN 8725 KOAK - PHNL She's on her way!

Tue Feb 19, 2019 10:07 pm

SO lets see...

Keep it simple to start with direct flights.

No worries about lower yields due to connections.

Trash other airlines’ yields.


Sounds like a good game plan to me
My views are mine alone and are not that of any of my fellow employees, officers, or directors at my company
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