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User avatar
DL757NYC
Posts: 289
Joined: Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:07 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:58 am

Instead of going through all of this. Why doesn’t DL keep NRT as NW had it. They are flying a much more economical aircraft there. NW has/had a huge base at NRT I don’t think people care what airport in Tokyo they fly to. Keep a decent looking airplane. Good service and a great price. And let’s face it UA is a beast in Asia and they have ZERO partners
 
WPvsMW
Posts: 2103
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:30 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:23 am

DL757NYC wrote:
I don’t think people care what airport in Tokyo they fly to.


Sorry, very wrong. HND is IN Tokyo-shi, not 60 min. (NEX) to 120 min. train ride into Chiba-ken. If you are going to Tokyo, or want to connect to Shinkansen (at Shinagawa eki), you want to be at HND. If you are connecting domestistically, 10X more reason to use HND, given the poor domestic connections at NRT. If you are connecting on SkyTeam.... duh, you want to be at Terminal 2 at ICN.
 
WPvsMW
Posts: 2103
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:30 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:26 am

jetblastdubai wrote:
FSDan wrote:

DL

JFK x1


I'd be curious to see the justification DL would have for requesting JFK-HND when they don't currently even attempt JFK-NRT.


DL is drawing down NRT to ... probably ... beach markets only. SIN and MNL will last as long as the PRASM is better than alternative uses of the a/c.
HND will only grow in demand.
 
alfa164
Posts: 3026
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2012 2:47 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:28 am

DL757NYC wrote:
Instead of going through all of this. Why doesn’t DL keep NRT as NW had it. They are flying a much more economical aircraft there. NW has/had a huge base at NRT I don’t think people care what airport in Tokyo they fly to. Keep a decent looking airplane. Good service and a great price.


I am one observer who thought Delta moved too rapidly to dismantle the NRT hub; with UA the dominant USA-based carrier to the region, DL is now looking at a strengthened effort by AA. Abandoning NRT so quickly leaves DL with fewer options. Passengers flying to Tokyo do care which airport they fly into, but passengers connecting on their travels probably couldn't give a hoot. Losing their hub has made onward destinations like Hong Kong, Taipei, Bangkok, et al, unsustainable.

DL757NYC wrote:
And let’s face it UA is a beast in Asia and they have ZERO partners


Huh? Except for ANA, Asiana, Thai, Singapore, Air China .. except for those small-time players, UA has ZERO partners...

;)
Last edited by alfa164 on Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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UA857
Posts: 334
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:41 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:30 am

Here what routes and aircraft HND will be like for the US3.
DL
HNL - 763
SEA - 763 or A332
DTW - A359
ATL - 77L
UA
ORD - 77E
EWR - 77W
AA
DFW - 77E or 789
Last edited by UA857 on Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
United1
Posts: 3870
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2003 9:21 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:31 am

DL757NYC wrote:
Instead of going through all of this. Why doesn’t DL keep NRT as NW had it. They are flying a much more economical aircraft there. NW has/had a huge base at NRT I don’t think people care what airport in Tokyo they fly to. Keep a decent looking airplane. Good service and a great price. And let’s face it UA is a beast in Asia and they have ZERO partners


UA has quite a few partners in Asia not the least of which is ANA whom they have a joint venture with.

The days of US carriers having a hub in NRT is really over as passengers prefer non stop point to point flights. UA figured that out years ago which is why they are the 800 pound gorilla across the Pacific. UA and AA are always going to have a strong presence at NRT as they can connect to their JV partners there. DL has no partners in Japan and is trying to stay competitive by moving it’s flights to Haenda while at the same time turning intra-Asia flights over to Korean.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2150
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:31 am

UA857 wrote:
Here what I believe HND will be like for the US3.
DL
HNL
SEA
DTW
ATL
UA
ORD
EWR
AA
DFW


You aren’t accounting for 5 frequencies.
 
United1
Posts: 3870
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2003 9:21 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:38 am

alfa164 wrote:
DL757NYC wrote:

DL757NYC wrote:
And let’s face it UA is a beast in Asia and they have ZERO partners


Huh? Except for ANA, Asiana, Thai, Singapore, Air China .. except for those small-time players, UA has ZERO partners...

;)


Left out EVA :)

It’s hard to overstate how strong UA is to Asia....DL and AA combined are smaller. Which is why I think people are right that UA will only get two or three pairs of slots at HND.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
UA857
Posts: 334
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:41 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:43 am

Here what the future of NRT holds for the US3.

DL
Cut SIN, MNL, and PDX
and the remaining NRT operation HNL, SEA, DTW, ATL to HND.
UA
Remain at NRT.
AA
Remain at NRT.
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Topic Author
Posts: 23840
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:03 am

orcajet wrote:

Reading through the proceeding I don’t see a reference to this restriction. Is that in another document? Several places where it would be logical to write US-Japan flights or something similar the document instead references “additional daytime slot pairs for U.S.-carrier operations at Haneda”, further this section seems to invite 5th freedom flights, “If a carrier is relying upon connecting traffic, it should provide proposed nonstop-to-nonstop connecting schedules“. Am I missing something here? Thanks


Here are a few quotes from the agreement that open Haneda up to U.S. flights in 2010.

o "Public benefits will result from introducing U.S.-flag carrier service in the U.S.-Haneda market."
o "Slots should permit increased traffic for destinations in the United States"
o "Narita remains the essential airport for U.S. carrier connectivity to other cities, and beyond to points in Asia."
o "Narita retain its role as the major international hub in Japan and gateway connecting traffic between Asia and North America"
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TTailedTiger
Posts: 1466
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:08 am

UA857 wrote:
Here what routes and aircraft HND will be like for the US3.
DL
HNL - 763
SEA - 763 or A332
DTW - A359
ATL - 77L
UA
ORD - 77E
EWR - 77W
AA
DFW - 77E or 789


You think Delta is going to drop LAX-HND? I don't think so.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 1466
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:09 am

UA857 wrote:
Here what the future of NRT holds for the US3.

DL
Cut SIN, MNL, and PDX
and the remaining NRT operation HNL, SEA, DTW, ATL to HND.
UA
Remain at NRT.
AA
Remain at NRT.


And why exactly would the DOT allow Delta to take all of the future slots?
 
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FA9295
Posts: 1770
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 7:44 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 6:26 am

I think the oddballs in this case for DL are clearly NRT-HNL and NRT-PDX.

I don't think HND-HNL would work because the Honolulu-Tokyo market is already really saturated. Granted, even though it's a very popular route. Delta would want to use this slot on a more business-oriented route.

As for HND-PDX, there's just not enough of a business market in Portland to justify such a flight. Sure, there's Nike, but that's really about it. Living in Portland, I would love to see this flight happen, but it doesn't seem too realistic right now. Another issue with HND-PDX is that DL runs their NRT-PDX flight 5x a week in the winter instead of daily. Would DL be able to maintain this flight daily in the winter time if it was shifted over to HND? I don't think the DOT would allow DL to use a HND slot on a less than daily basis. Isn't that why DL initially axed their HND-SEA flight?

I think it's already a given that at least ATL, DTW and SEA will most likely shift over to HND. And maybe HNL and PDX will as well, but those two seem to be the ones that are least likely to make the cut at this point.
 
vadodara
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Joined: Mon Feb 20, 2017 7:45 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:20 pm

psa1011 wrote:
Anyone think JL might also apply for HND-SEA to partner with AS and compete with DL?


I would think so. DL is killing over the Atlantic due to its JY's with AF-KLM and VS.

JL does not have much of an advantage at HND in terms of connecting hub. Better would be to have a JV with AS and leverage its advantage at W Coast airports. I imagine it will need to balance this with its relationship with AA.
 
kavok
Posts: 591
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:42 pm

FA9295 wrote:
I think the oddballs in this case for DL are clearly NRT-HNL and NRT-PDX.

I don't think HND-HNL would work because the Honolulu-Tokyo market is already really saturated. Granted, even though it's a very popular route. Delta would want to use this slot on a more business-oriented route.

As for HND-PDX, there's just not enough of a business market in Portland to justify such a flight. Sure, there's Nike, but that's really about it. Living in Portland, I would love to see this flight happen, but it doesn't seem too realistic right now. Another issue with HND-PDX is that DL runs their NRT-PDX flight 5x a week in the winter instead of daily. Would DL be able to maintain this flight daily in the winter time if it was shifted over to HND? I don't think the DOT would allow DL to use a HND slot on a less than daily basis. Isn't that why DL initially axed their HND-SEA flight?

I think it's already a given that at least ATL, DTW and SEA will most likely shift over to HND. And maybe HNL and PDX will as well, but those two seem to be the ones that are least likely to make the cut at this point.


I think it is a given that if DL doesn't get PDX-HND, that one of the two Japanese carriers adds it instead. And they might add it regardless of what Delta gets. Reason being, there are 12 new slots also going to the Japanese carriers, which is a LOT. If you make a list of 12 likely destinations that the Japanese carriers could add, it is hard to come up with 12 of them that are all more lucrative than PDX.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2150
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:35 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
UA857 wrote:
Here what the future of NRT holds for the US3.

DL
Cut SIN, MNL, and PDX
and the remaining NRT operation HNL, SEA, DTW, ATL to HND.
UA
Remain at NRT.
AA
Remain at NRT.


And why exactly would the DOT allow Delta to take all of the future slots?


He literally suggested 4 slots to DL. Read. Also on your prior post, he didn’t suggest DL would cut LAX.
 
ANA787
Posts: 826
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:00 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:45 pm

vadodara wrote:
psa1011 wrote:
Anyone think JL might also apply for HND-SEA to partner with AS and compete with DL?


I would think so. DL is killing over the Atlantic due to its JY's with AF-KLM and VS.

JL does not have much of an advantage at HND in terms of connecting hub. Better would be to have a JV with AS and leverage its advantage at W Coast airports. I imagine it will need to balance this with its relationship with AA.


Could you post some OD numbers for Portland-Japan and Portland-Asia?
 
jsteeves3
Posts: 81
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:00 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:46 pm

peak86 wrote:
12 applications is going to be pushing it - unless DL literally tries to move everything over to HND. Doubt AA and UA get that aggressive in trying to shift stuff.

Hawaiian seems to be the interesting one to watch. HA already flies KOA-HND, and not sure if OGG would work with the runway - but if it would, seems to make sense. That or a 2nd daily HNL.


OGG has no customs or immigration facilities. OGG would have gotten JL service over KOA if they had the facilities to do it. HA, JL, and NH are all working on it.
 
winstonavgeek
Posts: 36
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:00 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:47 pm

Here is my prediction for the slot allocation assuming that DL gets 5, AA gets 3, UA gets 3, HA gets 1, and NH and JL somehow split 7 to 5 or 6 to 6.

UA:
EWR-HND
SFO-HND 2nd daily
IAH/IAD-HND

AA:
DFW-HND
LAX-HND(2nd daily)
ORD-HND

DL:
DTW-HND
ATL-HND
PDX-HND
SEA-HND
BOS/JFK-HND or LAX-HND(2nd daily)

HA:
Somehow HNL-HND 2x daily and KOA-HND 1x daily

NH:
IAD/IAH-HND
DEN-HND
SFO-HND
JFK-HND
SEA-HND
BOS-HND

JL:
DFW-HND
MIA-HND
LAX-HND
BOS-HND
JFK-HND
ORD-HND

Nobody has talked about MIA-HND so I want to hear the thoughts about that one.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 1466
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:29 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
UA857 wrote:
Here what the future of NRT holds for the US3.

DL
Cut SIN, MNL, and PDX
and the remaining NRT operation HNL, SEA, DTW, ATL to HND.
UA
Remain at NRT.
AA
Remain at NRT.


And why exactly would the DOT allow Delta to take all of the future slots?


He literally suggested 4 slots to DL. Read. Also on your prior post, he didn’t suggest DL would cut LAX.


He said AA and UA would have to remain at NRT. Why should they have to stay at a less desirable airport?
 
United1
Posts: 3870
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2003 9:21 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:36 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

And why exactly would the DOT allow Delta to take all of the future slots?


He literally suggested 4 slots to DL. Read. Also on your prior post, he didn’t suggest DL would cut LAX.


He said AA and UA would have to remain at NRT. Why should they have to stay at a less desirable airport?


UA and AA do want to add a few more flights to HND..however they also want to keep some capacity at NRT so they can connect to their JV partners international flights. UA and AA won't leave NRT until NH and JL do...

With the dismantling of DLs (really NWs) NRT hub DL is trying to abandon NRT as quickly as possible.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
UA857
Posts: 334
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:41 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 6:51 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

And why exactly would the DOT allow Delta to take all of the future slots?


He literally suggested 4 slots to DL. Read. Also on your prior post, he didn’t suggest DL would cut LAX.


He said AA and UA would have to remain at NRT. Why should they have to stay at a less desirable airport?


UA and AA would remain at NRT because UA has a JV with ANA and AA has a JV with JAL. DL would move because DL has no Japanese parter.
 
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UPlog
Posts: 411
Joined: Sat Jan 27, 2018 5:45 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:13 pm

UA857 wrote:

UA and AA would remain at NRT because UA has a JV with ANA and AA has a JV with JAL. DL would move because DL has no Japanese parter.


You realize ANA and JAL both have larger operations at Haneda right?

Both carriers are building out their international networks at HND also, so over time depending on what other nations get additional slots at HND they will both continue getting even larger which means AA and UA can connect over HND instead of NRT also.
 
Fargo
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Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:00 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:15 pm

My predictions

1. All of the US3 will move the Tokyo flights from their hometown hubs (ATL, DFW, ORD) to HND

2. DL will move SEA and DTW to HND

3. UA will move EWR, IAD and maybe LAX to HND

The rest I don't know.....
Last edited by Fargo on Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2150
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:17 pm

UPlog wrote:
UA857 wrote:

UA and AA would remain at NRT because UA has a JV with ANA and AA has a JV with JAL. DL would move because DL has no Japanese parter.


You realize ANA and JAL both have larger operations at Haneda right?

Both carriers are building out their international networks at HND also, so over time depending on what other nations get additional slots at HND they will both continue getting even larger which means AA and UA can connect over HND instead of NRT also.


Larger and growing, but there are still *very* sizable operations at NRT. Thus, AA and UA maintaining flights there provides connection opportunities, which DL does not have. So, for AA to keep 1x daily to NRT from DFW and go 2x to HND (with JAL) is reasonable.
 
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LAXintl
Topic Author
Posts: 23840
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:11 pm

Do not dismiss the growing international networks of ANA and JAL at Haneda which already benefit their U.S. JV partners.

This connectivity will only increase as additional flights and city pairs are added.

Here is rundown of their current regional routes per GDS.

ANA
BKK - 21x weekly
CAN - 7x
CGK - 14x
GMP - 21x
HAN - 7x
HKG - 14x
KUL - 7x
MNL - 7x
PEK - 14x
PVG - 14x
SGN - 14x
SHA - 7x
SIN - 14x
TSA - 14x

JAL
BKK - 14x
CAN - 7x
CGK - 7x
GMP - 21x
HKG - 7x
MNL - 7x
PEK - 14x
PVG - 7x
SGN - 7x
SHA - 7x
SIN - 14x
TSA - 14x

=
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User avatar
RWA380
Posts: 5527
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2005 10:51 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:14 pm

FSDan wrote:
I think DL will apply for at least 6: the obvious SEA, DTW, and ATL, plus PDX, JFK, and probably HNL. I don't think they'll apply for BOS, but I could be wrong there. I agree with others that they'll likely try to use this opportunity to completely exit NRT, and possibly to exit HNL-Japan flying as well (is that flying included in the KE JV?).

HA could apply for an additional frequency to allow their existing 2nd HNL flight and their KOA flight to both go daily (although these flights might be outside this whole process, since I believe they're nighttime slots...). I'm not sure if HA would want to move their daily NRT flight to HND - it probably gives them a broader reach to serve both airports, especially given that their traffic mix is the most skewed toward leisure of any airline that will be applying for slots.


You have also raised an interesting point & also provoked a thought as well for me. HA is really the only leisure oriented airline of the mix that will likely make a grab for some HND slots. In the past that has put them at a disadvantage, because the powers that be, we’re only looking for those carriers that offered service that was in the best interest of the American flying public, obviously not HA’s target market on a route to Hawaii from Japan.

Has that verbiage really changed? I hope so & it needs to, or HA will remain the big underdog in any HND slot bid. Unless I am mistaken, HA only got heir last HND slot, because no one else was using it or didn’t use it.

I can remember the previous CEO at HA, advising that HA wanted to serve both Tokyo airports for the reason you stated, it’s appeal & availability for the most Tokyo area residents who travel to Hawaii. HA has a good route planning department, albeit a fairly conservative one & that may be one key to HA’s longevity.
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klm617
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:10 am

Would it be outside of the realm of possibility that Delta would ask for two slots to operate into one market. Say two ATL-HND slots
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Sightseer
Posts: 946
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:04 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:45 am

klm617 wrote:
Would it be outside of the realm of possibility that Delta would ask for two slots to operate into one market. Say two ATL-HND slots

Yes.

They don't operate two daily flights on any Tokyo route today, and they'll likely get more slots by applying for service to more cities.
 
HeeseokKoo
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Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 5:54 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:06 am

LAXintl wrote:
Do not dismiss the growing international networks of ANA and JAL at Haneda which already benefit their U.S. JV partners.

Good point, but HND-Asia flights spread out throughout the day (and night), making it less efficient to transfer. Meanwhile NRT-Asia flights leave almost altogether. We'll see if ANA and JAL can retime or increase Asian flights in the meantime.
 
jfk777
Posts: 7053
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:47 pm

winstonavgeek wrote:
Here is my prediction for the slot allocation assuming that DL gets 5, AA gets 3, UA gets 3, HA gets 1, and NH and JL somehow split 7 to 5 or 6 to 6.

UA:
EWR-HND
SFO-HND 2nd daily
IAH/IAD-HND

AA:
DFW-HND
LAX-HND(2nd daily)
ORD-HND

DL:
DTW-HND
ATL-HND
PDX-HND
SEA-HND
BOS/JFK-HND or LAX-HND(2nd daily)

HA:
Somehow HNL-HND 2x daily and KOA-HND 1x daily

NH:
IAD/IAH-HND
DEN-HND
SFO-HND
JFK-HND
SEA-HND
BOS-HND

JL:
DFW-HND
MIA-HND
LAX-HND
BOS-HND
JFK-HND
ORD-HND

Nobody has talked about MIA-HND so I want to hear the thoughts about that one.


IF the new schedule at Haneda looks anything like this, and it will with few variations, this reminds me of London in 2008 when every Gatwick flight that could was moved to Heathrow. Any Narita flight capable of being moved to Haneda will, can the international terminal at HND handle so much traffic ? If his many flights are moving to HND how man European flights are moving too ? The EU and UK will want more if the Haneda pie too, no surprise if a new deal between EU and Japan gets announced for HND.
 
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LAXintl
Topic Author
Posts: 23840
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:17 pm

jfk777 wrote:
can the international terminal at HND handle so much traffic ? If his many flights are moving to HND how man European flights are moving too ? The EU and UK will want more if the Haneda pie too, no surprise if a new deal between EU and Japan gets announced for HND.


ANA will be receiving a new wing on T-2 with 7 international gates in March 2020, that will allow them to consolidate their ops under one roof. This will free up space at the international terminal.

On other nations, I am sure we will hear announcements. Many nations were on the waiting list (Switzerland, Turkey, India, Italy, Qatar, Netherlands, etc) for Haneda access. Some of these decisions will be political obviously.
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ramprat74
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Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2003 6:01 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:29 pm

United has its own ATW and BTW employees at NRT, so I don't see them moving a lot of flighst to HND.
 
jfk777
Posts: 7053
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:01 pm

ramprat74 wrote:
United has its own ATW and BTW employees at NRT, so I don't see them moving a lot of flighst to HND.



What are ATW & BTW employees ? Why is moving flights to HND onerous because of these folks.
 
USPIT10L
Posts: 2001
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 12:24 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:45 pm

Above the wing and below the wing.....standard industry term. All those folks might have to move.....NRT and HND aren't exactly next door in Tokyo geography.
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FSDan
Posts: 2620
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:33 am

compensateme wrote:
FSDan wrote:
I think DL will apply for at least 6: the obvious SEA, DTW, and ATL, plus PDX, JFK, and probably HNL. I don't think they'll apply for BOS, but I could be wrong there. I agree with others that they'll likely try to use this opportunity to completely exit NRT


I’m puzzled as to why you believe DL will apply for JFK


Because they're trying to be a major player in NYC. NYC-TYO is a pretty important route for business traffic, and DL may well have corporate clients in NYC who are asking for this service. It's not competitive for DL to connect passengers on NYC-TYO via ICN.

compensateme wrote:
DL reported it incurred significant losses when it serviced NRT.


Given both Japanese airlines were able to fly JFK-HND in the daytime and DL was flying to NRT, that's not surprising. With the right aircraft (359), a better airport to operate from in Tokyo, and an ever growing presence in NYC, I think DL could be more successful now than they were last time.

compensateme wrote:
Moving ATL, DTW, SEA and probably PDX and HNL will take priority over experimenting with new service to JFK and BOS, and I suspect the end game will be to close NRT.


I definitely agree. I don't think DL would prioritize JFK-HND over the existing services they could move over from NRT (unless they're really getting pressure from important corporate clients). Last time DL applied for HND slots, they provided the DOT with a prioritized list. I think JFK would be at or near the bottom of their list this time around, but since they might as well apply for as many slots as they think they could use (nothing to loose!), I wouldn't be surprised to see it. I would be moderately surprised to see BOS, though.

compensateme wrote:
Adding new service makes it less likely DL will secure the routes it truly wants, especially when it lost its case to move MSP elsewhere.


See above. Last time DL provided the DOT with a prioritized list. However, I don't remember if the DOT honored DL's top priority or if they just chose MSP from the list due to geographic diversity in allocating the frequencies...
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jrkmsp
Posts: 160
Joined: Sun May 14, 2017 1:33 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:50 am

FSDan wrote:
compensateme wrote:
FSDan wrote:
I think DL will apply for at least 6: the obvious SEA, DTW, and ATL, plus PDX, JFK, and probably HNL. I don't think they'll apply for BOS, but I could be wrong there. I agree with others that they'll likely try to use this opportunity to completely exit NRT


I’m puzzled as to why you believe DL will apply for JFK


Because they're trying to be a major player in NYC. NYC-TYO is a pretty important route for business traffic, and DL may well have corporate clients in NYC who are asking for this service. It's not competitive for DL to connect passengers on NYC-TYO via ICN.

compensateme wrote:
DL reported it incurred significant losses when it serviced NRT.


Given both Japanese airlines were able to fly JFK-HND in the daytime and DL was flying to NRT, that's not surprising. With the right aircraft (359), a better airport to operate from in Tokyo, and an ever growing presence in NYC, I think DL could be more successful now than they were last time.

compensateme wrote:
Moving ATL, DTW, SEA and probably PDX and HNL will take priority over experimenting with new service to JFK and BOS, and I suspect the end game will be to close NRT.


I definitely agree. I don't think DL would prioritize JFK-HND over the existing services they could move over from NRT (unless they're really getting pressure from important corporate clients). Last time DL applied for HND slots, they provided the DOT with a prioritized list. I think JFK would be at or near the bottom of their list this time around, but since they might as well apply for as many slots as they think they could use (nothing to loose!), I wouldn't be surprised to see it. I would be moderately surprised to see BOS, though.

compensateme wrote:
Adding new service makes it less likely DL will secure the routes it truly wants, especially when it lost its case to move MSP elsewhere.


See above. Last time DL provided the DOT with a prioritized list. However, I don't remember if the DOT honored DL's top priority or if they just chose MSP from the list due to geographic diversity in allocating the frequencies...


MSP was Delta’s top choice, ahead of ATL. But they probably didn’t put DTW or SEA down to be able to avoid litigating their past failures on those routes with night slots.
 
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centrair
Posts: 2887
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:01 am

The Tokyo airport balance by itself is a very interesting. NRT has been slowly becoming the LCC and beach market hub while HND has been pulling Point to Point business (or with domestic connections). JL and NH have extensive HND domestic connections and the timing is pretty good for someone traveling in and out to the country.

How DL positions the use of both airports would be a good balancing act. They could keep their beach flights but also some mainline just for alternate connections to other Skyteam partners. But this could also be done at HND if the timing is right.
With a shift in Tokyo of flights to HND, this opens up slots in the afternoon for new operations like BOS or the AA fan dream of MIA (hahaha).

Long-term, this opens up the discussion about the future of US airlines in Japan. Though AA and UA have JV, they do not operate much outside Tokyo but rely on their JV partners but even those partners don't do many US bound flights from the secondary cities. This is where DL is working but mostly with beach markets. They are using ICN for secondary markets but could refine or create their own non-stop to secondary cities: NGO, KIX and FUK.

Back to the 12 slots at HND, the US3 will appeal for their core hub airports but I wonder how the Japanese will weigh these as they still want NRT to be their main port of entry. I wonder what the US3 will put forward as their merits for moving ops or starting new routes.
My name is Centrair but HND is closer. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
jetskipper
Posts: 495
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2001 1:50 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:03 am

jfk777 wrote:
ramprat74 wrote:
United has its own ATW and BTW employees at NRT, so I don't see them moving a lot of flighst to HND.



What are ATW & BTW employees ? Why is moving flights to HND onerous because of these folks.


Above the Wing = Customer Service, Gate Agents, Check-in Counter

Below the Wing = Operations, Baggage Handlers, Marshallers
 
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Geminijets101
Posts: 165
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:43 am

winstonavgeek wrote:
Here is my prediction for the slot allocation assuming that DL gets 5, AA gets 3, UA gets 3, HA gets 1, and NH and JL somehow split 7 to 5 or 6 to 6.

UA:
EWR-HND
SFO-HND 2nd daily
IAH/IAD-HND

AA:
DFW-HND
LAX-HND(2nd daily)
ORD-HND

DL:
DTW-HND
ATL-HND
PDX-HND
SEA-HND
BOS/JFK-HND or LAX-HND(2nd daily)

HA:
Somehow HNL-HND 2x daily and KOA-HND 1x daily

NH:
IAD/IAH-HND
DEN-HND
SFO-HND
JFK-HND
SEA-HND
BOS-HND

JL:
DFW-HND
MIA-HND
LAX-HND
BOS-HND
JFK-HND
ORD-HND

Nobody has talked about MIA-HND so I want to hear the thoughts about that one.



As much as I would want it, MIA-TYO probably wont happen until 2025.
But who knows? JAL could surprise us.
Cíao
 
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compensateme
Posts: 3279
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Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Mon Feb 11, 2019 7:15 am

FSDan wrote:
Because they're trying to be a major player in NYC. NYC-TYO is a pretty important route for business traffic, and DL may well have corporate clients in NYC who are asking for this service. It's not competitive for DL to connect passengers on NYC-TYO via ICN.

Given both Japanese airlines were able to fly JFK-HND in the daytime and DL was flying to NRT, that's not surprising. With the right aircraft (359), a better airport to operate from in Tokyo, and an ever growing presence in NYC, I think DL could be more successful now than they were last time.


DL withdrew from the market a little more than two years ago; at the time, there was no service from JFK into HND (NH inaugurated service shortly after DL ended service, while JL didn’t even announce service until months after DL’s exit).

DL is a major player in NYC, and I’m certain it calculated the network contribution for JFK-NRT before pulling the plug, just as it did for HKG. It’s only been two years since DL exited the market — again, reporting “heavy losses” — and I doubt DL’s position in market has materially changed. In fact, with a 300-passenger aircraft the smallest that can make the trek + lack of onward connections at HND, its position has likely weakened.

Last time DL applied for HND slots, they provided the DOT with a prioritized list. I think JFK would be at or near the bottom of their list this time around, but since they might as well apply for as many slots as they think they could use (nothing to loose!), I wouldn't be surprised to see it. I would be moderately surprised to see BOS


Last time, DL applied for two new markets (plus daytime slots for LAX). I’d be surprised if they’d make a large wish lists of routes — it’d be subject to much ridicule, especially since responses will hammer DL for failing on JFK-NRY, DTW and SEA to HND, and recently asking for flexibility in moving gateways (presumably from MSP).

Ultimately, this is likely a big deal for DL, as if it gets to move ATL, DTW and SEA, it’ll likely mean the end of the NRT operation. Depending on how they handle MSP, it’s going to give them more capacity into TYO than they’d likely prefer, and it’ll be a big adjustment for their network.

Alas, if DL has JFK on its radar, I doubt it’ll materialized until it’s absorbed the transition to HND. Imagine if DL was awarded ATL, JFK and PDX but not DTW or SEA and it subsequently dropped JFK, MSP and PDX for heavy losses.... would hurt it’s position in the next round.
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
kavok
Posts: 591
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:32 pm

compensateme wrote:
FSDan wrote:
Because they're trying to be a major player in NYC. NYC-TYO is a pretty important route for business traffic, and DL may well have corporate clients in NYC who are asking for this service. It's not competitive for DL to connect passengers on NYC-TYO via ICN.

Given both Japanese airlines were able to fly JFK-HND in the daytime and DL was flying to NRT, that's not surprising. With the right aircraft (359), a better airport to operate from in Tokyo, and an ever growing presence in NYC, I think DL could be more successful now than they were last time.


DL withdrew from the market a little more than two years ago; at the time, there was no service from JFK into HND (NH inaugurated service shortly after DL ended service, while JL didn’t even announce service until months after DL’s exit).

DL is a major player in NYC, and I’m certain it calculated the network contribution for JFK-NRT before pulling the plug, just as it did for HKG. It’s only been two years since DL exited the market — again, reporting “heavy losses” — and I doubt DL’s position in market has materially changed. In fact, with a 300-passenger aircraft the smallest that can make the trek + lack of onward connections at HND, its position has likely weakened.

Last time DL applied for HND slots, they provided the DOT with a prioritized list. I think JFK would be at or near the bottom of their list this time around, but since they might as well apply for as many slots as they think they could use (nothing to loose!), I wouldn't be surprised to see it. I would be moderately surprised to see BOS


Last time, DL applied for two new markets (plus daytime slots for LAX). I’d be surprised if they’d make a large wish lists of routes — it’d be subject to much ridicule, especially since responses will hammer DL for failing on JFK-NRY, DTW and SEA to HND, and recently asking for flexibility in moving gateways (presumably from MSP).

Ultimately, this is likely a big deal for DL, as if it gets to move ATL, DTW and SEA, it’ll likely mean the end of the NRT operation. Depending on how they handle MSP, it’s going to give them more capacity into TYO than they’d likely prefer, and it’ll be a big adjustment for their network.

Alas, if DL has JFK on its radar, I doubt it’ll materialized until it’s absorbed the transition to HND. Imagine if DL was awarded ATL, JFK and PDX but not DTW or SEA and it subsequently dropped JFK, MSP and PDX for heavy losses.... would hurt it’s position in the next round.


With 12 slots available to US carriers, I can’t see how DL would justifiably get turned down for HND-SEA/DTW, even given what happened before. They will make the argument that the previous HND-DTW/SEA slots were restricted to unfavorable times (which is a fair argument). But more bluntly, there aren’t 12 better route arguments that UA/AA/HA can make in combination that would put DTW/SEA or ATL at risk.

You do raise a very good point about how large the US-Tokyo market is, and how much of that DL can capture even if they got all their flights to HND. In the unlikely scenario that DL was awarded 6 or 7 HND slots this round, it is very unlikely there is enough demand to make all of those routes operate profitably. I am sure the DOT does not want to see another Cuba situation where everyone and their brother applies for a slot, only to discover no money can be made.

Going back to DL, I have to believe any NRT flight that remains on DL today is profitable (or it would have been dropped). Thus if NRT can work, HND should also be able to work. So that aspect looks favorably for DL on SEA, DTW, ATL, PDX... and maybe HNL. Whether JFK could work in addition, and whether MSP continues, that remains to be seen. But I have to believe DL would prefer to risk it, still ask for all of the routes, and maybe be told no on JFK/HNL... rather than only ask for DTW/ATL/SEA and be told no on one of their key routes.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2150
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:44 pm

compensateme wrote:
FSDan wrote:
Because they're trying to be a major player in NYC. NYC-TYO is a pretty important route for business traffic, and DL may well have corporate clients in NYC who are asking for this service. It's not competitive for DL to connect passengers on NYC-TYO via ICN.

Given both Japanese airlines were able to fly JFK-HND in the daytime and DL was flying to NRT, that's not surprising. With the right aircraft (359), a better airport to operate from in Tokyo, and an ever growing presence in NYC, I think DL could be more successful now than they were last time.


DL withdrew from the market a little more than two years ago; at the time, there was no service from JFK into HND (NH inaugurated service shortly after DL ended service, while JL didn’t even announce service until months after DL’s exit).

DL is a major player in NYC, and I’m certain it calculated the network contribution for JFK-NRT before pulling the plug, just as it did for HKG. It’s only been two years since DL exited the market — again, reporting “heavy losses” — and I doubt DL’s position in market has materially changed. In fact, with a 300-passenger aircraft the smallest that can make the trek + lack of onward connections at HND, its position has likely weakened.


The facts certainly have materially changed: (1) day time flights to HND are now in abundance (with the new 12 slots) and (2) KE JV. KE has a substantial Japanese base that probably wants to go non-stop to JFK. Also, I'd add that DL has more and more targeted corporate contracts in NYC - that is apparently a lot of the rationale behind the A220 - so a HND flight would be consistent with that increased target.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 1553
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:08 pm

HND-PDX on JL would make sense as they can connect to their partner AS at PDX and fill onward connections. Although HND-SEA can probably do the same thing.
 
User avatar
compensateme
Posts: 3279
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2009 4:17 am

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:12 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
The facts certainly have materially changed: (1) day time flights to HND are now in abundance (with the new 12 slots)


No, they haven’t. HND isn’t a magical gateway to profitability; if DL sustained “heavy losses” competing against NH and JL to NRT, they’re going to struggle going up against NH and JL to HND. This isn’t a situation where DL was flying into NRT and NH+JL into HND... all three were serving NRT at the route’s termination. [/quote]

and (2) KE JV. KE has a substantial Japanese base that probably wants to go non-stop to JFK.


Ridiculous. DL and KE have long had FF program recipicolcy, and KE placed its code on DL’s former JFK-NRT flight, which (potentially) brought some additional perks to its clientele. Entering into a JV really adds practically nothing from a consumer POV- it’s not going to increase traffic.

Also, I'd add that DL has more and more targeted corporate contracts in NYC - that is apparently a lot of the rationale behind the A220 - so a HND flight would be consistent with that increased target.


This was true when DL axed JFK-NRT; no doubt they calculated its overall contribution.
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
FSDan
Posts: 2620
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:49 pm

compensateme wrote:
FSDan wrote:
Because they're trying to be a major player in NYC. NYC-TYO is a pretty important route for business traffic, and DL may well have corporate clients in NYC who are asking for this service. It's not competitive for DL to connect passengers on NYC-TYO via ICN.

Given both Japanese airlines were able to fly JFK-HND in the daytime and DL was flying to NRT, that's not surprising. With the right aircraft (359), a better airport to operate from in Tokyo, and an ever growing presence in NYC, I think DL could be more successful now than they were last time.


DL withdrew from the market a little more than two years ago; at the time, there was no service from JFK into HND (NH inaugurated service shortly after DL ended service, while JL didn’t even announce service until months after DL’s exit).


True, although DL's announcement that they were cutting JFK-NRT came about a week after NH announced they were starting JFK-HND. Not a coincidence in my mind.

compensateme wrote:
It’s only been two years since DL exited the market — again, reporting “heavy losses” — and I doubt DL’s position in market has materially changed. In fact, with a 300-passenger aircraft the smallest that can make the trek + lack of onward connections at HND, its position has likely weakened.


Everything I found from the time the route was cut was in reference to the opening up of HND daytime slots and the fact that DL could see the writing on the wall regarding their NRT hub (KIX and BKK were cut from NRT at the same time). I would argue that if DL was awarded the authority to fly JFK-HND, their position in the market would have materially changed. Also, that 300-passenger aircraft happens to be the most efficient widebody in DL's fleet - easily less costly to operate than the 744 and 772 that DL previously used on JFK-NRT, with a better product to boot.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
osupoke07
Posts: 152
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 1:39 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:58 pm

yonikasz wrote:
jrkmsp wrote:
Also, here's a link to the full instituting order for those who want to read:

https://airlineinfo.com/ostpdf103/476.pdf


Do you know where to get those regulatory documents on the US governments website? I don’t wanna pay for something that should be free.


www.regulations.gov

Below is a link to the actual docket:
https://www.regulations.gov/searchResul ... ue&ns=true

Not sure how to get notified that these are issued and how to track comments and updates.
MD82, MD83, MD88, B717, B732, B733, B735, B737, B738, B739, B752, B763, B77W, CR2, CR7, CR9, A320, A321
 
PHLCVGAMTK
Posts: 84
Joined: Tue Aug 29, 2017 6:50 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:43 pm

Much as I think DL would love to wind down its NRT operations, I think a major factor in this round of allocations will be the two Governments' desire to keep NRT's international hub status a going concern, especially in view of the 2020 Olympics, which will be a very high volume season. Perhaps the delegation of the task of assigning slots to USDOT will attenuate this, but I'm skeptical. I would not be surprised if the deciding factors in slot allocation, are commitments to keep flying to NRT even as the airlines open up HND routes. For DL, that probably means locating an A359 on shortish notice and flying DTW-NRT as well as DTW-HND, and/or an A339 to fly SEA-NRT in addition to SEA-HND. I think DL going the other way and pledging to shut down NRT and end the 5th Freedom flights would be shooting itself in the foot, however elegant the consolidation it would seem to a.net commentators or DL shareholders.

For UA and AA, this gets stranger, as I don't think that moving a 2nd daily flight SFO-NRT to SFO-HND or LAX-NRT to LAX-HND is going to go over well. AA has room to maneuver by taking ORD back to daily and probably opening either PHX or PHL, but I don't know how UA navigates this apart from just pledging a massive amount of capacity to the Japan market in S20, likely to the detriment of NH vis-a-vis the allocation of the other 12 HND slots.
 
kavok
Posts: 591
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Mon Feb 11, 2019 7:09 pm

PHLCVGAMTK wrote:
Much as I think DL would love to wind down its NRT operations, I think a major factor in this round of allocations will be the two Governments' desire to keep NRT's international hub status a going concern, especially in view of the 2020 Olympics, which will be a very high volume season. Perhaps the delegation of the task of assigning slots to USDOT will attenuate this, but I'm skeptical. I would not be surprised if the deciding factors in slot allocation, are commitments to keep flying to NRT even as the airlines open up HND routes. For DL, that probably means locating an A359 on shortish notice and flying DTW-NRT as well as DTW-HND, and/or an A339 to fly SEA-NRT in addition to SEA-HND. I think DL going the other way and pledging to shut down NRT and end the 5th Freedom flights would be shooting itself in the foot, however elegant the consolidation it would seem to a.net commentators or DL shareholders.

For UA and AA, this gets stranger, as I don't think that moving a 2nd daily flight SFO-NRT to SFO-HND or LAX-NRT to LAX-HND is going to go over well. AA has room to maneuver by taking ORD back to daily and probably opening either PHX or PHL, but I don't know how UA navigates this apart from just pledging a massive amount of capacity to the Japan market in S20, likely to the detriment of NH vis-a-vis the allocation of the other 12 HND slots.


I am curious why the USDOT would place a significant value on continued NRT service. Using LHR/Gatwick as a comparison... I have never read anywhere that the USDOT is remorseful that more US airlines no longer serve Gatwick.
 
FSDan
Posts: 2620
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: US-Japan agree on additional Haneda slots; DOT to allocate

Mon Feb 11, 2019 7:35 pm

Geminijets101 wrote:
winstonavgeek wrote:
Here is my prediction for the slot allocation assuming that DL gets 5, AA gets 3, UA gets 3, HA gets 1, and NH and JL somehow split 7 to 5 or 6 to 6.

UA:
EWR-HND
SFO-HND 2nd daily
IAH/IAD-HND

AA:
DFW-HND
LAX-HND(2nd daily)
ORD-HND

DL:
DTW-HND
ATL-HND
PDX-HND
SEA-HND
BOS/JFK-HND or LAX-HND(2nd daily)

HA:
Somehow HNL-HND 2x daily and KOA-HND 1x daily

NH:
IAD/IAH-HND
DEN-HND
SFO-HND
JFK-HND
SEA-HND
BOS-HND

JL:
DFW-HND
MIA-HND
LAX-HND
BOS-HND
JFK-HND
ORD-HND

Nobody has talked about MIA-HND so I want to hear the thoughts about that one.



As much as I would want it, MIA-TYO probably wont happen until 2025.
But who knows? JAL could surprise us.


If MIA-TYO were to come to fruition, I think the market would be better served via NRT. The biggest markets this flight would serve are connections beyond TYO to TPE, HKG, and MNL, as well as leisure traffic connecting to MCO on the MIA end. None of that demands a HND flight.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
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