Here are AA proposed schedules.

AA227 DFW-HND 1235-1715 777
AA228 HND-DFW 1935-1615 777

AA597 DFW-HND 1500-1940 777
AA598 HND-DFW 2155-1835 777

AA171 LAX-HND 2355-0445 788
AA172 HND-LAX 1345-0635 788

AA776 LAS-HND 1320-1825 788
AA777 HND-LAS 1730-1045 788

OA412 wrote:

Ishrion wrote:

Delta: https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0014-0005

In order of priority:

1. Seattle (SEA) 339
2. Detroit (DTW) 359
3. Atlanta (ATL) 772
4. Portland (PDX) 332
5. Honolulu #1 (HNL) 763
6. Honolulu #2 (HNL) 763

I've included DLs proposed aircraft type for each route. Also of note, p. 37 of the proposal includes the DL's 339 seat map.

I see it on page 57, not 37. But thank you for the info!

DL proposed schedule:

DL167 SEA-HND 1200-1430 339
DL166 HND-SEA 1630-1000 339

DL275 DTW-HND 1015-1215 359
DL275 HND-DTW 1415-1315 359

DL295 ATL-HND 1100-1415 777
DL296 HND-ATL 1645-1615 777

DL69 PDX-HND 1415-1700 332
DL68 HND-PDX 1845-1200 332

DL181 HNL-HND 1300-1700 763
DL180 HND-HNL 1900-0745 763

DL577 HNL-HND 1130-1530 763
DL675 HND-HNL 1800-0645 763

=

winstonavgeek wrote:

Here is my prediction for the US carriers

AA:
DFW-HND (One of them IDK)
LAX-HND
LAS-HND

UA:
EWR-HND
IAD-HND
ORD-HND
DL:
SEA-HND
DTW-HND
ATL-HND
PDX-HND

HL:
HNL-HND(One of them)

Last slot:
DL: HND-HNL or UA: LAX-HND

I feel that DL would get a HND-HNL slot before HA receives another one due to the added competition. Other than that, I agree with this list.

My prediction:
I think there are 10 “Locks”:
AA: DFW#1, LAX.
DL: SEA,DTW,ATL,PDX.
HA: HNL#1
UA: EWR, ORD, IAD

I don’t think anyone gets all their choices, so that eliminates the stated “last choices” of:
AA to LAS, DL to HNL#2, HA to HNL#3, UA to IAH,GUM

Which leaves the final 2 slots up for grabs between:
AA: DFW#2, DL: HNL#1, HA: HNL#2, UA: LAX

kavok wrote:

In total, 50 new slots are being created at HND airport for 2020. Of the 50, half are going to Japanese (x13) and US (x12) carriers. Information per link below.

It sounds like the US government agreeing to allow some flight paths over US military air space will help with Tokyo airspace congestion issues, and that such a concession was probably a major factor as to why the US-routes are getting such a significant portion of the 50 slots.


https://www.airport-technology.com/news ... -airlines/

Interesting article that explains why US got a lot of slots this time. While title says 25 new slots to the US, context says Japanese and US sides are getting 12 each.

Here are my predictions:

American: 3 slots
DFW-HND (1x)
LAX-HND (1x)
LAS-HND (1x)

- Somehow I doubt that the DoT would award AA with two DFW-HND frequencies. Even though they already have an existing LAX-HND flight, that route probably has one of the highest demands between the U.S. and HND.

Delta: 4 slots
SEA-HND (1x)
DTW-HND (1x)
ATL-HND (1x)
PDX-HND (1x)

- I honestly cannot see Delta getting any of the 2 HNL routes that they applied for. If Delta wants to continue operating HNL-TYO, I think the DoT would pressure them into continuing to operate that flight from NRT (if at all).

Hawaiian: 2 slots
HND-HNL (2x) (application was for 3x)

- Given Hawaiian's already existing 11x weekly HNL- HND schedule (along with 3x weekly KOA-HND), I don't see them getting any more than 2 additional flights on HNL-HND, which seems very generous on it's own merit to be honest.

United: 3 slots
EWR-HND (1x)
IAD-HND (1x)
IAH-HND (1x)

- Since NH already flies HND-ORD and HND-LAX, I don't think the DoT would award UA with these routes. As for Guam, I think that is a sufficient route that can be flown through NRT, similarly to DL's HNL route.

pnwpdx wrote:

Nicknuzzii wrote:

When do we find out which proposals are awarded?

First post states:

Procedural Timetable:
Petitions for Reconsideration February 14
Answers to Petitions February 19
Applications February 21
Answers February 28
Replies March 7

I expect awards sometime in early April.

But most significantly, United’s U.S. point-of-sale passengers traveling to Tokyo have a demonstrated preference for flying to Haneda. United consumers’ preference for Haneda is evident from examining what happened when United switched one of its two daily San FranciscoNarita flights to San Francisco-Haneda in 2014. By 2018, almost 57% of United’s U.S. point-ofsale San Francisco-Tokyo passengers elected to fly to Haneda. Moreover, United’s average nonstop yield between San Francisco and Haneda is 12% higher than San Francisco-Narita yields – demonstrating the higher value its passengers place on access to Haneda. (See Figure 4) In addition, following the introduction of United’s San Francisco-Haneda service, there was a substantial reduction in Narita-Haneda ground connections, and a dramatic increase in the number of passengers traveling to points in Japan beyond Tokyo.

Interesting bit from the United application

Well, it certainly looks as though neither AA nor DL have any intention of staying at NRT. I wonder if HA has any interest in adding service to NRT, what with all the additional slots coming available there?

To recap, the HND applications are:

American Airlines:
1st choice: Dallas/Fort Worth, TX (DFW), operated by the 777-200
2nd choice: Los Angeles, CA (LAX) westbound redeye service, operated by the 787-8
3rd choice: Dallas/Fort Worth, TX (DFW) secondary frequency, also operated by the 777-200
4th choice: Las Vegas, NV (LAS), operated by the 787-8

Delta Air Lines:
1st choice: Seattle/Tacoma, WA (SEA), operated by the A330-900neo
2nd choice: Detroit, MI (DTW), operated by the A350-900
3rd choice: Atlanta, GA (ATL), operated by the 777-200
4th choice: Portland, OR (PDX), operated by the A330-200
5th choice: Honolulu, HI (HNL), operated by the 767-300
6th choice: Honolulu, HI (HNL) secondary frequency, also operated by the 767-300

Hawaiian Airlines:
3 additional daily HNL-HND frequencies (operated by A330-200 for now; 787-9s begin arriving in 2021)

United Airlines:
1st choice: Newark, NJ (EWR), Chicago, IL (ORD) and Washington, DC (IAD) - all operated by the 777
2nd choice: Los Angeles, CA (LAX), operated by the 787-10
3rd choice: Houston, TX (IAH) and Guam (GUM) - both operated by the 777

No major surprises here, what with AA already having operated nonstop between Las Vegas and Tokyo (NRT) in lieu of its longstanding ORD-NRT service for this year's CES show. I can only assume that AA's transpacific operations from ORD have been such a disaster that the airline would rather just let its oneworld alliance codeshare partners CX and JL handle all of the flying to Asia from the Chicago hub. Also not a good sign for hubs like MIA, PHL and PHX that may be hoping to get service to East Asia - though I guess it's always possible JL may want to serve those markets from HND or NRT with AA codeshare...

DL and UA both offer pretty compelling proposals across the board. DL's past track record on DTW/SEA-HND shouldn't be a consideration given the horrendous times those services had to operate at, and its lack of Japanese partner may work in its favor. Interesting that HA did not propose to bring HND-KOA to daily, and simply wants to serve its HNL hub.

FA9295 wrote:

Here are my predictions:

American: 3 slots
DFW-HND (1x)
LAX-HND (1x)
LAS-HND (1x)

- Somehow I doubt that the DoT would award AA with two DFW-HND frequencies. Even though they already have an existing LAX-HND flight, that route probably has one of the highest demands between the U.S. and HND.

Delta: 4 slots
SEA-HND (1x)
DTW-HND (1x)
ATL-HND (1x)
PDX-HND (1x)

- I honestly cannot see Delta getting any of the 2 HNL routes that they applied for. If Delta wants to continue operating HNL-TYO, I think the DoT would pressure them into continuing to operate that flight from NRT (if at all).

Hawaiian: 2 slots
HND-HNL (2x) (application was for 3x)

- Given Hawaiian's already existing 11x weekly HNL- HND schedule (along with 3x weekly KOA-HND), I don't see them getting any more than 2 additional flights on HNL-HND, which seems very generous on it's own merit to be honest.

United: 3 slots
EWR-HND (1x)
IAD-HND (1x)
IAH-HND (1x)

- Since NH already flies HND-ORD and HND-LAX, I don't think the DoT would award UA with these routes. As for Guam, I think that is a sufficient route that can be flown through NRT, similarly to DL's HNL route.

Reasonable.
But I don't think DOT will award HA 2 slots, maybe 1 slot is enough for HA to have a total of 2-3 daily HND-HNL afterwards. So, I will bet a UA's 2nd HND-LAX over HA's 2nd HND-HNL

LAXdude1023 wrote:

FSDan wrote:

Ishrion wrote:

Delta: https://twitter.com/airlinefilings/stat ... 2545580032

Haneda-Seattle; Haneda-Detroit; Haneda-Atlanta; Haneda-Portland; Haneda-Honolulu

This amounts to moving the current NRT operation to HND in full. It's worth noting that they applied for 2 HNL-HND frequencies, so they do seem committed to serving HNL-Japan at least for the time being. I'd expect them to get 5 of their 6 requested frequencies (all but the 2nd HNL-HND frequency, which should go to HA if anyone).

This also seems to affirm that DL has 0 interest in serving NYC-Asia with their own metal for the foreseeable future, as this would have been the time to apply for JFK-HND if they wanted to get a foot back in the door. Not too surprising, if a little disappointing.

Based on the applications, these are the awards I'd personally like to see:
AA LAX-HND #2
AA LAS-HND
AA DFW-HND #1
AA DFW-HND #2
UA IAD-HND
UA EWR-HND
DL SEA-HND
DL PDX-HND
DL DTW-HND
DL ATL-HND
DL HNL-HND #1
HA HNL-HND #1

This spreads the love around between alliances a bit, and allows DL and AA to pull their own metal out of NRT and simplify their TYO ops. NH could pretty easily fill in the rest of UA's requests with the likely 7 frequencies they'll get awarded.

I don’t think there’s anyway DL gets that many awards.

I think they’ll get SEA and DTW. UA will get EWR and IAD. AA will certainly get DFW.

My feeling is that there's at least a 50% chance that DL gets either 5 or all 6 of their requests. They went to significant lengths in their application to highlight the competitive dynamics between DL and the JVs, including the flexibility the JVs have through their Japanese partners to move gateways around as demand warrants while DL is nailed down to their gateways. If the DOT considers these aspects of the competitive landscape (which I believe they should, like they did last time), DL has a good chance of winning most or all of their requested frequencies.

General Question:
Each of the carriers has submitted a preferential order. What are the chances the DOT would “skip” a choice and award another route further down the list for that carrier?

For example, if the DOT preferred UA’s 5th choice of IAH over their 4th choice of LAX, would they actually choose to award UA the IAH, route but not LAX? Similar question about AA’s bids of DFW#2 (third choice) vs LAS (fourth choice).

FA9295 wrote:

C010T3 wrote:

I really admire United's conduct in its applications before the DOT. They really only go for what they see as feasible economically, but also in terms of a fair proceeding, not resorting to going for the most strategic gateways to win the most allocations. For example, if they went for DEN-HND, it would have been a slam dunk, considering how the DOT likes to spread the love, but is behind in terms of priority within its own network.

So if UA decides to transfer all of these NRT flights over to HND, the only NRT flight left for them would be DEN?

Nope. Still want DEN, EWR, GUM, LAX to NRT

LondonXtreme wrote:

FA9295 wrote:

Here are my predictions:

American: 3 slots
DFW-HND (1x)
LAX-HND (1x)
LAS-HND (1x)

- Somehow I doubt that the DoT would award AA with two DFW-HND frequencies. Even though they already have an existing LAX-HND flight, that route probably has one of the highest demands between the U.S. and HND.

Delta: 4 slots
SEA-HND (1x)
DTW-HND (1x)
ATL-HND (1x)
PDX-HND (1x)

- I honestly cannot see Delta getting any of the 2 HNL routes that they applied for. If Delta wants to continue operating HNL-TYO, I think the DoT would pressure them into continuing to operate that flight from NRT (if at all).

Hawaiian: 2 slots
HND-HNL (2x) (application was for 3x)

- Given Hawaiian's already existing 11x weekly HNL- HND schedule (along with 3x weekly KOA-HND), I don't see them getting any more than 2 additional flights on HNL-HND, which seems very generous on it's own merit to be honest.

United: 3 slots
EWR-HND (1x)
IAD-HND (1x)
IAH-HND (1x)

- Since NH already flies HND-ORD and HND-LAX, I don't think the DoT would award UA with these routes. As for Guam, I think that is a sufficient route that can be flown through NRT, similarly to DL's HNL route.

Reasonable.
But I don't think DOT will award HA 2 slots, maybe 1 slot is enough for HA to have a total of 2-3 daily HND-HNL afterwards. So, I will bet a UA's 2nd HND-LAX over HA's 2nd HND-HNL

That's a fair point.

Although I think HND-HNL actually does have a higher demand than HND-LAX does. Per Hawaiian's application filing (on page 10): "Hawaii has 51% more Tokyo passengers than California with two fewer HND designations". Even though that statement specifically refers to the entire state of California, I think it's pretty safe to assume that UA would significantly benefit from connecting flights from all across the state if they were to be awarded LAX-HND.

Also, UA basically has LAX-HND covered already with NH's already existing LAX-HND flight; and maybe NH will apply to add another LAX-HND flight when the Japanese airlines submit their applications.

Finally, if HA was only awarded 1 slot while AA was awarded 3 and DL/UA were both awarded 4, that would seem fairly lopsided. I think the DoT's best interest is to keep the number of slot allocations that each airline earns as fair as they can, while benefiting the consumers/general public as much as they can.

FSDan wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

FSDan wrote:

This amounts to moving the current NRT operation to HND in full. It's worth noting that they applied for 2 HNL-HND frequencies, so they do seem committed to serving HNL-Japan at least for the time being. I'd expect them to get 5 of their 6 requested frequencies (all but the 2nd HNL-HND frequency, which should go to HA if anyone).

This also seems to affirm that DL has 0 interest in serving NYC-Asia with their own metal for the foreseeable future, as this would have been the time to apply for JFK-HND if they wanted to get a foot back in the door. Not too surprising, if a little disappointing.

Based on the applications, these are the awards I'd personally like to see:
AA LAX-HND #2
AA LAS-HND
AA DFW-HND #1
AA DFW-HND #2
UA IAD-HND
UA EWR-HND
DL SEA-HND
DL PDX-HND
DL DTW-HND
DL ATL-HND
DL HNL-HND #1
HA HNL-HND #1

This spreads the love around between alliances a bit, and allows DL and AA to pull their own metal out of NRT and simplify their TYO ops. NH could pretty easily fill in the rest of UA's requests with the likely 7 frequencies they'll get awarded.

I don’t think there’s anyway DL gets that many awards.

I think they’ll get SEA and DTW. UA will get EWR and IAD. AA will certainly get DFW.

My feeling is that there's at least a 50% chance that DL gets either 5 or all 6 of their requests. They went to significant lengths in their application to highlight the competitive dynamics between DL and the JVs, including the flexibility the JVs have through their Japanese partners to move gateways around as demand warrants while DL is nailed down to their gateways. If the DOT considers these aspects of the competitive landscape (which I believe they should, like they did last time), DL has a good chance of winning most or all of their requested frequencies.

I think you’re pretty far off. No way they get all of them. Their cry about the JV AA and UA enjoy is no different then their own JV with KE to ICN.

IMO no more HNL segments are needed. It’s much better for the traveling public as a whole for mainland requests granted.

FA9295 wrote:

LondonXtreme wrote:

FA9295 wrote:

Here are my predictions:

American: 3 slots
DFW-HND (1x)
LAX-HND (1x)
LAS-HND (1x)

- Somehow I doubt that the DoT would award AA with two DFW-HND frequencies. Even though they already have an existing LAX-HND flight, that route probably has one of the highest demands between the U.S. and HND.

Delta: 4 slots
SEA-HND (1x)
DTW-HND (1x)
ATL-HND (1x)
PDX-HND (1x)

- I honestly cannot see Delta getting any of the 2 HNL routes that they applied for. If Delta wants to continue operating HNL-TYO, I think the DoT would pressure them into continuing to operate that flight from NRT (if at all).

Hawaiian: 2 slots
HND-HNL (2x) (application was for 3x)

- Given Hawaiian's already existing 11x weekly HNL- HND schedule (along with 3x weekly KOA-HND), I don't see them getting any more than 2 additional flights on HNL-HND, which seems very generous on it's own merit to be honest.

United: 3 slots
EWR-HND (1x)
IAD-HND (1x)
IAH-HND (1x)

- Since NH already flies HND-ORD and HND-LAX, I don't think the DoT would award UA with these routes. As for Guam, I think that is a sufficient route that can be flown through NRT, similarly to DL's HNL route.

Reasonable.
But I don't think DOT will award HA 2 slots, maybe 1 slot is enough for HA to have a total of 2-3 daily HND-HNL afterwards. So, I will bet a UA's 2nd HND-LAX over HA's 2nd HND-HNL

That's a fair point.

Although I think HND-HNL actually does have a higher demand than HND-LAX does. Per Hawaiian's application filing (on page 10): "Hawaii has 51% more Tokyo passengers than California with two fewer HND designations". Even though that statement specifically refers to the entire state of California, I think it's pretty safe to assume that UA would significantly benefit from connecting flights from all across the state if they were to be awarded LAX-HND.

Also, UA basically has LAX-HND covered already with NH's already existing LAX-HND flight; and maybe NH will apply to add another LAX-HND flight when the Japanese airlines submit their applications.

Finally, if HA was only awarded 1 slot while AA was awarded 3 and DL/UA were both awarded 4, that would seem fairly lopsided. I think the DoT's best interest is to keep the number of slot allocations that each airline earns as fair as they can, while benefiting the consumers/general public as much as they can.

HNL is a leisure market. The majority of Japan-Hawaii traffic should be route via NRT because the HND slots are limited and valuable. With Japanese carriers will have 12-13 new slots, so I guess JL may restart HNL-HND as a JV with HA. Also, I am very curious to figure out how JL and NH arrange new HND slots.

splitterz wrote:

FSDan wrote:

My feeling is that there's at least a 50% chance that DL gets either 5 or all 6 of their requests. They went to significant lengths in their application to highlight the competitive dynamics between DL and the JVs, including the flexibility the JVs have through their Japanese partners to move gateways around as demand warrants while DL is nailed down to their gateways. If the DOT considers these aspects of the competitive landscape (which I believe they should, like they did last time), DL has a good chance of winning most or all of their requested frequencies.

I think you’re pretty far off. No way they get all of them. Their cry about the JV AA and UA enjoy is no different then their own JV with KE to ICN.

Since when is ICN restricted such that airlines need special government approval to start additional service there? As far as I'm aware, AA and UA could add flights to ICN from every one of their U.S. gateways if they felt like it. Not the case at HND. If DL want's to compete with AA and UA to TYO, they need to get access through proceedings like this one.

We'll see how far off I am in a week. Do remember that last time around, the DOT placed a very high emphasis on spreading the frequencies out between the JVs and DL/HA, and DL made sure to play that up again in their application this time. I think the only scenario where DL would possibly get fewer than 5 awards is if the DOT highly de-prioritizes Hawai'i services.

splitterz wrote:

FSDan wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

I don’t think there’s anyway DL gets that many awards.

I think they’ll get SEA and DTW. UA will get EWR and IAD. AA will certainly get DFW.

My feeling is that there's at least a 50% chance that DL gets either 5 or all 6 of their requests. They went to significant lengths in their application to highlight the competitive dynamics between DL and the JVs, including the flexibility the JVs have through their Japanese partners to move gateways around as demand warrants while DL is nailed down to their gateways. If the DOT considers these aspects of the competitive landscape (which I believe they should, like they did last time), DL has a good chance of winning most or all of their requested frequencies.

I think you’re pretty far off. No way they get all of them. Their cry about the JV AA and UA enjoy is no different then their own JV with KE to ICN.

It is quite different. When was the last route proceeding for slots at any Seoul airport?

Since the moderators thinks its so incredibly smart to move the IAH conversation over here I will ask the question again: What is the connections benefit UA will have moving the IAH route from NRT to HND? UA and NH rely on a good chunk of connection traffic between the two and it would be great to see more intra-Japan possibilities .

LAXintl wrote:

DL proposed schedule:
DL69 PDX-HND 1415-1700 332
DL68 HND-PDX 1845-1200 332

DL181 HNL-HND 1300-1700 763
DL180 HND-HNL 1900-0745 763

DL577 HNL-HND 1130-1530 763
DL675 HND-HNL 1800-0645 763

=

So, I get that they fly PDX-NRT now, but without a hub on either end PDX-HND is a disaster. No idea why that's in there. HNL-HND is likely also chaff. That made sense with a hub in NRT, but it makes little sense without a hub in Tokyo. Clearly they would close NRT completely.

Also kinda surprised PDX is a better choice than their hubs in SLC or JFK. Perhaps because they failed at it before? But they tried some of those other before as well.

enilria wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

DL proposed schedule:
DL69 PDX-HND 1415-1700 332
DL68 HND-PDX 1845-1200 332

DL181 HNL-HND 1300-1700 763
DL180 HND-HNL 1900-0745 763

DL577 HNL-HND 1130-1530 763
DL675 HND-HNL 1800-0645 763

=

So, I get that they fly PDX-NRT now, but without a hub on either end PDX-HND is a disaster. No idea why that's in there. HNL-HND is likely also chaff. That made sense with a hub in NRT, but it makes little sense without a hub in Tokyo. Clearly they would close NRT completely.

Also kinda surprised PDX is a better choice than their hubs in SLC or JFK. Perhaps because they failed at it before? But they tried some of those other before as well.

Or perhaps there are significant corporate contracts? Its why IND-CDG; RDU-LHR; etc. work. Honestly, I'm sure DL has a better of idea of what it can do than you - especially when you say it would be a "disaster". And how would HNL-HND be a problem, look at the presentations, HNL-Tokyo is the second largest US-Japan route, DL won't have problems filling up a 767-300ER.

According to the press release Delta sent out, the B767-300ER is “currently being retrofitted with a new cabin interior and inflight entertainment system.” That’s the first I heard of a -300 refurbishment; is this new? Does anyone have any details about what a new cabin interior means?

What about JL and NH predictions? These could be impacted by what AA / UA receive.

JL:
BOS
DFW (AA will get 1 for sure)
ORD (AA will probably drop NRT)
CLT / MIA / PHX / PHL (tie into AA hubs)
AUS (I’m reaching)

NH:
BOS
DEN (UA didn’t apply)
IAD / IAH / ORD (depending on UA)
LAX
SEA

nomorerjs wrote:

What about JL and NH predictions? These could be impacted by what AA / UA receive.

JL:
BOS
DFW (AA will get 1 for sure)
ORD (AA will probably drop NRT)
CLT / MIA / PHX / PHL (tie into AA hubs)
AUS (I’m reaching)

NH:
BOS
DEN (UA didn’t apply)
IAD / IAH / ORD (depending on UA)
LAX
SEA

Did NH and JL announce their slot allocation applications?

enilria wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

DL proposed schedule:
DL69 PDX-HND 1415-1700 332
DL68 HND-PDX 1845-1200 332

DL181 HNL-HND 1300-1700 763
DL180 HND-HNL 1900-0745 763

DL577 HNL-HND 1130-1530 763
DL675 HND-HNL 1800-0645 763

=

So, I get that they fly PDX-NRT now, but without a hub on either end PDX-HND is a disaster. No idea why that's in there. HNL-HND is likely also chaff. That made sense with a hub in NRT, but it makes little sense without a hub in Tokyo. Clearly they would close NRT completely.

Also kinda surprised PDX is a better choice than their hubs in SLC or JFK. Perhaps because they failed at it before? But they tried some of those other before as well.

What do you mean by “no hub on either end,” there is no hub on either end today.The only connections that PDX-NRT coustomers can currently take is to MNL or SIN so most of the traffic is already O&D based and performs quite well with the corporate contracts it get from the route.

tkoenig95 wrote:

nomorerjs wrote:

What about JL and NH predictions? These could be impacted by what AA / UA receive.

JL:
BOS
DFW (AA will get 1 for sure)
ORD (AA will probably drop NRT)
CLT / MIA / PHX / PHL (tie into AA hubs)
AUS (I’m reaching)

NH:
BOS
DEN (UA didn’t apply)
IAD / IAH / ORD (depending on UA)
LAX
SEA

Did NH and JL announce their slot allocation applications?

I believe JL / NH are each given a number of slots and they pick the cities.

enilria wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

DL proposed schedule:
DL69 PDX-HND 1415-1700 332
DL68 HND-PDX 1845-1200 332

DL181 HNL-HND 1300-1700 763
DL180 HND-HNL 1900-0745 763

DL577 HNL-HND 1130-1530 763
DL675 HND-HNL 1800-0645 763

=

So, I get that they fly PDX-NRT now, but without a hub on either end PDX-HND is a disaster. No idea why that's in there. HNL-HND is likely also chaff. That made sense with a hub in NRT, but it makes little sense without a hub in Tokyo. Clearly they would close NRT completely.

Also kinda surprised PDX is a better choice than their hubs in SLC or JFK. Perhaps because they failed at it before? But they tried some of those other before as well.

PDX-NRT is 169 PDEW as of 2018

nomorerjs wrote:

tkoenig95 wrote:

Did NH and JL announce their slot allocation applications?

I believe JL / NH are each given a number of slots and they pick the cities.

Spot on, they don't allocate per city and no applications like DOT has. They just go straight to announce flights for sale.

Michael

winstonavgeek wrote:

Here is my prediction for the US carriers

AA:
DFW-HND (One of them IDK)
LAX-HND
LAS-HND

UA:
EWR-HND
IAD-HND
ORD-HND
DL:
SEA-HND
DTW-HND
ATL-HND
PDX-HND

HL:
HNL-HND(One of them)

Last slot:
DL: HND-HNL or UA: LAX-HND

This is along the lines of what I was thinking also. This way you'd only end up with one new flight per city with the exception of HNL/LAX.

So with all the extra HND slots opening up for the Japanese carriers does anyone see NH or JL starting DTW-HND ?

nomorerjs wrote:

What about JL and NH predictions? These could be impacted by what AA / UA receive.

JL:
BOS
DFW (AA will get 1 for sure)
ORD (AA will probably drop NRT)
CLT / MIA / PHX / PHL (tie into AA hubs)
AUS (I’m reaching)

NH:
BOS
DEN (UA didn’t apply)
IAD / IAH / ORD (depending on UA)
LAX
SEA

I imagine a few of the Japanese routes may still go to Hawaii, even though much of those flows will still remain at NRT.

FlyHPN wrote:

winstonavgeek wrote:

Here is my prediction for the US carriers

AA:
DFW-HND (One of them IDK)
LAX-HND
LAS-HND

UA:
EWR-HND
IAD-HND
ORD-HND
DL:
SEA-HND
DTW-HND
ATL-HND
PDX-HND

HL:
HNL-HND(One of them)

Last slot:
DL: HND-HNL or UA: LAX-HND

This is along the lines of what I was thinking also. This way you'd only end up with one new flight per city with the exception of HNL/LAX.

This seems like the most likely distribution to me as well, with Delta HND-HNL being slot 12.

Any predictions RE: fares? I can imagine that with the HUGE amount of capacity suddenly being thrown at HND, fares will crater.

klm617 wrote:

So with all the extra HND slots opening up for the Japanese carriers does anyone see NH or JL starting DTW-HND ?

No. There is obviously no connecting partner (AA or UA) on the DTW side, so it would have to rely entirely on DTW O/D... which is strong, but not that strong.

From a pure O/D perspective (excluding connecting traffic), Tokyo-DTW O/D is almost exactly the same size as Tokyo-PDX's O/D. I use that comparison because TYO-PDX is a route that runs basically on pure O/D. Anyway, for that sized O/D, there is enough of a market for one flight to work profitably, but not two. Note also that DL uses lower capacity aircraft on the PDX route, because it can fill the A350 with traffic connecting in DTW. Factor in the advantages DL has with Detroit based pax, and there is basically no chance NH or JL would challenge them.

splitterz wrote:

FSDan wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

I don’t think there’s anyway DL gets that many awards.

I think they’ll get SEA and DTW. UA will get EWR and IAD. AA will certainly get DFW.

My feeling is that there's at least a 50% chance that DL gets either 5 or all 6 of their requests. They went to significant lengths in their application to highlight the competitive dynamics between DL and the JVs, including the flexibility the JVs have through their Japanese partners to move gateways around as demand warrants while DL is nailed down to their gateways. If the DOT considers these aspects of the competitive landscape (which I believe they should, like they did last time), DL has a good chance of winning most or all of their requested frequencies.

I think you’re pretty far off. No way they get all of them. Their cry about the JV AA and UA enjoy is no different then their own JV with KE to ICN.

IMO no more HNL segments are needed. It’s much better for the traveling public as a whole for mainland requests granted.

From the applications I tend to think it should be a fairly straight forward 5-4-3 split with:

- DL getting SEA / DTW / ATL / PDX / HNL
- AA getting DFW / LAX / DFW / LAS
- UA getting EWR / ORD / IAD

Geographically that spreads out the awards and covers all areas of the Continental US, it gives DL the most awards to preserve competition and by granting DL HNL rights it introduces competition into the HNL market for HA which is probably a better consumer benefit than giving HA another slot pair.

That means in overall terms that post award you would have the following US carrier frequency at HND:

- DL LAX / MSP / SEA / DTW / ATL / PDX / HNL - 7 daily flights
- AA LAX x 2 / DFW x 2 / LAS - 5 daily flights
- UA SFO / EWR / ORD / IAD - 4 daily flights
- HA HNL / HNL or KOA - 2 daily flights

Total of 18 daily flights which basically covers off virtually all the major inter-continental connecting hubs that US airlines use for Asia flying while perserving P2P Japan routes like PDX.

Sydscott wrote:

splitterz wrote:

FSDan wrote:

My feeling is that there's at least a 50% chance that DL gets either 5 or all 6 of their requests. They went to significant lengths in their application to highlight the competitive dynamics between DL and the JVs, including the flexibility the JVs have through their Japanese partners to move gateways around as demand warrants while DL is nailed down to their gateways. If the DOT considers these aspects of the competitive landscape (which I believe they should, like they did last time), DL has a good chance of winning most or all of their requested frequencies.

I think you’re pretty far off. No way they get all of them. Their cry about the JV AA and UA enjoy is no different then their own JV with KE to ICN.

IMO no more HNL segments are needed. It’s much better for the traveling public as a whole for mainland requests granted.

From the applications I tend to think it should be a fairly straight forward 5-4-3 split with:

- DL getting SEA / DTW / ATL / PDX / HNL
- AA getting DFW / LAX / DFW / LAS
- UA getting EWR / ORD / IAD

Geographically that spreads out the awards and covers all areas of the Continental US, it gives DL the most awards to preserve competition and by granting DL HNL rights it introduces competition into the HNL market for HA which is probably a better consumer benefit than giving HA another slot pair.

That means in overall terms that post award you would have the following US carrier frequency at HND:

- DL LAX / MSP / SEA / DTW / ATL / PDX / HNL - 7 daily flights
- AA LAX x 2 / DFW x 2 / LAS - 5 daily flights
- UA SFO / EWR / ORD / IAD - 4 daily flights
- HA HNL / HNL or KOA - 2 daily flights

Total of 18 daily flights which basically covers off virtually all the major inter-continental connecting hubs that US airlines use for Asia flying while perserving P2P Japan routes like PDX.

I don’t see AA getting 2x DFW. No way DOT would do that with all of the other applications. AA will get one DFW and JL will move their NRT-DFW to HND.

AA didn’t apply for ORD-HND as JL will do this and AA will likely drop their pathetic 3x weekly ORD-NRT. JL will have daily ORD-NRT/HND, probably on a schedule similar to what NH does today.

klm617 wrote:

So with all the extra HND slots opening up for the Japanese carriers does anyone see NH or JL starting DTW-HND ?

Don’t hold your breath. DTW is a DL mega hub and JL and NH are tied to AA and UA. Also, DL is a lock for DTW-HND.

Long shot, JL or NH to NRT, but slim chance.

Midwestindy wrote:

enilria wrote:

LAXintl wrote:

DL proposed schedule:
DL69 PDX-HND 1415-1700 332
DL68 HND-PDX 1845-1200 332

DL181 HNL-HND 1300-1700 763
DL180 HND-HNL 1900-0745 763

DL577 HNL-HND 1130-1530 763
DL675 HND-HNL 1800-0645 763

=

So, I get that they fly PDX-NRT now, but without a hub on either end PDX-HND is a disaster. No idea why that's in there. HNL-HND is likely also chaff. That made sense with a hub in NRT, but it makes little sense without a hub in Tokyo. Clearly they would close NRT completely.

Also kinda surprised PDX is a better choice than their hubs in SLC or JFK. Perhaps because they failed at it before? But they tried some of those other before as well.

PDX-NRT is 169 PDEW as of 2018

I question that’s true. That would make it the 5th largest US-Japan market. Are you sure that isn’t the total market?

Why is AA applying for LAS-HND as opposed to just having JL run the route? Would make much more sense. Seems kind of an insult to PHX if you ask me.

SurfandSnow wrote:

Well, it certainly looks as though neither AA nor DL have any intention of staying at NRT. I wonder if HA has any interest in adding service to NRT, what with all the additional slots coming available there?


No major surprises here, what with AA already having operated nonstop between Las Vegas and Tokyo (NRT) in lieu of its longstanding ORD-NRT service for this year's CES show. I can only assume that AA's transpacific operations from ORD have been such a disaster that the airline would rather just let its oneworld alliance codeshare partners CX and JL handle all of the flying to Asia from the Chicago hub. Also not a good sign for hubs like MIA, PHL and PHX that may be hoping to get service to East Asia - though I guess it's always possible JL may want to serve those markets from HND or NRT with AA codeshare...

.

PHX doesn't need it. It's not that kind of hub. MIA ummm its a long flight maybe some day(not sure the traffic is there). PHL will happen sooner then later.

The dismantling of non hub flying makes this LAS a surprise to me. I miss the old HP LAS hub. I wish HP/US would of kept a focus city there. The RED eye bank was a site to see. I love and miss the CLUB STAFF. I know the terminals were not up to par. A small focus city would of been nice. UA and DL have filled in the void of course WN has kept doing its thing also.

Fargo wrote:

Why is AA applying for LAS-HND as opposed to just having JL run the route? Would make much more sense. Seems kind of an insult to PHX if you ask me.

I'm guessing it's because LAS has endless demand and is viewed as more of a sure thing. Since US carriers don't have flexibility, they're likely stuck with anything they win long-term. JL, on the other hand, will have flexibility - they could start PHX and move the flight elsewhere if the JV is not satisfied with the performance.

nomorerjs wrote:

What about JL and NH predictions? These could be impacted by what AA / UA receive.

JL:
BOS
DFW (AA will get 1 for sure)
ORD (AA will probably drop NRT)
CLT / MIA / PHX / PHL (tie into AA hubs)
AUS (I’m reaching)

NH:
BOS
DEN (UA didn’t apply)
IAD / IAH / ORD (depending on UA)
LAX
SEA

There is no application process for Japanese carriers. Japanese government will allocate X slots to NH and Y slots to JL. NH and JL then do whatever they want with them.

Has DL planned what routes to add to HND?

Fargo wrote:

Why is AA applying for LAS-HND as opposed to just having JL run the route? Would make much more sense. Seems kind of an insult to PHX if you ask me.

AA higher-density 788 is probably a better fit for a more leisure-oriented market.

FSDan wrote:

splitterz wrote:

FSDan wrote:

My feeling is that there's at least a 50% chance that DL gets either 5 or all 6 of their requests. They went to significant lengths in their application to highlight the competitive dynamics between DL and the JVs, including the flexibility the JVs have through their Japanese partners to move gateways around as demand warrants while DL is nailed down to their gateways. If the DOT considers these aspects of the competitive landscape (which I believe they should, like they did last time), DL has a good chance of winning most or all of their requested frequencies.

I think you’re pretty far off. No way they get all of them. Their cry about the JV AA and UA enjoy is no different then their own JV with KE to ICN.

Since when is ICN restricted such that airlines need special government approval to start additional service there? As far as I'm aware, AA and UA could add flights to ICN from every one of their U.S. gateways if they felt like it. Not the case at HND. If DL want's to compete with AA and UA to TYO, they need to get access through proceedings like this one.

We'll see how far off I am in a week. Do remember that last time around, the DOT placed a very high emphasis on spreading the frequencies out between the JVs and DL/HA, and DL made sure to play that up again in their application this time. I think the only scenario where DL would possibly get fewer than 5 awards is if the DOT highly de-prioritizes Hawai'i services.

5 wow really? ok i guess we'll see.

codc10 wrote:

Fargo wrote:

Why is AA applying for LAS-HND as opposed to just having JL run the route? Would make much more sense. Seems kind of an insult to PHX if you ask me.

AA higher-density 788 is probably a better fit for a more leisure-oriented market.

But AA's own press release seems to suggest the majority of this market is Japanese tourist visiting Las Vegas. Out of all the applications this one in my opinion is the most interesting because it seems like AA wants this slot to benefit JL so JL doesn't have to devote an less dense aircraft to this route. What will be equally as interesting is if the DOT does not award AA LAS-NRT will JL then devote one of their slots to this route or will AA/JL let the route go unserved?

I can see both DL and UA objecting to AA's LAS-NRT-LAS route outside of CES which bring in a lot of business travelers I could see DL and UA make the argument that the tourist can continue to connect to LAS via LAX as they do today on AA or AA could just fly LAS-NRT. I wonder how serious One World and AA in particular is about this route are they serious enough that if they don't get HND and if JL decides not to commence the route on their metal would AA then consider operating LAS-NRT on a year around basis and not just during CES.

Fargo wrote:

Why is AA applying for LAS-HND as opposed to just having JL run the route? Would make much more sense. Seems kind of an insult to PHX if you ask me.

Phoenix doesn't need it. HND is covered well by LAX or DFW. I believe OD and the Japan OD side makes LAS a much better option. PHX is a great mid sized connection hub in the southwest, it doesn't need to be a international connection hub competing with DFW / LAX for traffic killing yields. Until PHX locally gets enough business draw and OD the hub is a perfect mid sized connecting hub for the lower western US and midwest. If AA didn't have LAX I'd say heck yea to PHX/NRT or HND.
I think PHL will be next to get a flight.