jbs2886
Posts: 2110
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Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Sat May 18, 2019 8:27 pm

ITSTours wrote:
c933103 wrote:
ITSTours wrote:
I believe JAL and ANA can choose to fly wherever they want to from HND. There is no such restriction like in the US. If I remember correctly this was the argument from Delta about liberalizing HND gateway.

Problem is I don't even know whether JAL and ANA combined can come up with 12 destinations that they want to fly to in the US from the Haneda


Certainly possible if they drop most of the current NRT routes.


Not even most, just some. FSDan has a good list of possibilities in Reply #591. Lets be honest, too, push come to shove, ANA and JAL could just drop half into Hawaii and still fill the flights.
 
B1168
Posts: 501
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Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Sat May 18, 2019 11:14 pm

kavok wrote:
EK77WNH wrote:
Is a BOS-HND flight more likely to go to JAL or to ANA, and why?


I think JAL is more likely. ANA is going to have some tough decisions on where their 6 new slots go, and ANA is not going to have enough slots to serve everywhere they’d like.

From HND, ANA already serves JFK, ORD, LAX. For ANAs 6 new slots, I think a slot each to IAH and SFO are both locks. DEN and EWR are also possible. And to make their Tokyo flyers happy, I have to image they’d like to have some HND flights to Hawaii/Guam.

Point being, I think ANA has at least 6 destinations that rank higher than BOS, and I think ANA will concede BOS to JAL.


They now serve a variety of Chinese cities on NRT. It seems to me wasteful that these slot pairs can’t be utilized for them. Examples include DLC, CTU, and more.
 
flyingisthebest
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Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Sun May 19, 2019 9:43 am

bcbhokie wrote:
The most interesting question to me here is what happens to MNL and SIN for DL. Possible scenarios:

- DL adds one or both of these routes out of Seattle, possibly with a short gap in service or weird timing until the new IAF opens. Pros: grows the Seattle hub, might be able to run SQ out of town. Cons: weak SEA o&d, more likely to get run out of town by SQ
- NRT and MNL move to ICN as new fifth freedom flights. Pros: most similar to old NRT arrangement. Cons: why bother when KE can do the flying
- DL tries to get HND slots for NRT/MNL. Pros: continue to capture Japan market traffic. Cons: HND slots are likely to have bad timing, Japan will probably take a dim view of a fifth freedom application for these routes, why go through the hassle of HND when you have ICN
- DL shrugs and drops both cities on the floor, relying on MU/KE connections. Pros: lowest risk. Cons: these routes are clearly at least somewhat profitable or they would have disappeared long ago with the rest of the NRT hub

My bet is that they take a brief stab at these out of Seattle sometime in 2020/2021 post-IAF opening and see if either sticks, but that they fail fast if bookings are weak. It’s also possible that they’d try to add flights out of ICN if they can do them with time an aircraft would otherwise spend unused.

SEA isn’t ideal as a gateway, especially with SQ here as competition. But DTW is too far to work, and most of the traffic would likely be connecting rather than O&D anyway...


Interesting Seattle maybe the more viable gateway for Delta for Singapore as this article goes into depth of the dilemma for Delta with the Haneda move. https://blueswandaily.com/as-delta-work ... onnection/
With up to 50 cities Delta could access from Seattle it would be a greater improvement than the current amount through Narita...

An interesting dilemma is if they hand off the pax to KE at ICN is will the FF be happy as they may want to use points to get upgrades and they would have a hard time doing that on KE as opposed to DL.

Personally if DL is flying to SIN after all the other cuts in the past and still hasn’t cut it than I think Delta would need to find a way to stay.

This may make things interesting but if Delta launches Seattle-Singapore Daily it May force SQ out with 3 weekly . Delta would have a greater advantage being a DL hub so they have feed plus Seattle corporate would have a one carrier marketing to say we can get you to Singapore and New York with us.

If DL can’t get HND slots for SIN...
Another out of the field thinking is for East Coast pax is to do CDG or AMS-SIN in tandem with SIN-SEA...
I am going to sound crazy but my explanation makes sense. Currently with the AF/KL JV there are a lot of cities that would be one stop and going via Europe only ads an extra 2 hours roughly to the journey not a huge difference when the journey is over 20 plus hours. It is also good for aircraft utilisation as I would imagine
Ex
An east coast flight arrives into CDG/AMS in the morning (bulk of US arrivals) goes onto SIN and arrives there in there in the morning. Based on the US-Asia flights it would then turn around and head off to Seattle and a plane from Seattle would arrive in at night. Which instead of parking at SIN all night would turn around and head to CDG/AMS and arrive there in the morning which is in time for the departures back to the States. It provides good utilisation plus I am sure the AF/KL could help provide some pax for the flight....

This would need the 280t 350 though as I cannot imagine the current 350s doing it if they can’t do SYD-LAX...
 
WingsOfLove
Posts: 109
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Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Sun May 19, 2019 12:23 pm

flyingisthebest wrote:
if Delta launches Seattle-Singapore Daily it May force SQ out with 3 weekly. Delta would have a greater advantage being a DL hub so they have feed plus Seattle corporate would have a one carrier marketing to say we can get you to Singapore and New York with us.


SQ is an AS partner, dominates corporate accounts in Singapore, runs a formidable SE Asian network & flies nonstop to NY.
 
kavok
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Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Sun May 19, 2019 12:59 pm

Regardless, it will be interesting to see how AA/JL and UA/NH balance the connecting flows between HND/NRT. While NYC/LAX/SFO/HNL may be able to support both NRT & HND, for most other markets it will likely become service just to HND and not NRT.... which makes it important for NH/JL to make more connection opportunities available through HND.

Otherwise, several US markets flying to secondary Asian cities that have one stop connecting opportunities in NRT today, may now have to double connect in the future.
 
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Coronado990
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Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Mon May 20, 2019 2:21 am

It would be nice to see the SAN-NRT flight on JL switch to HND. However, due to a lack of PR service to SAN (despite a Filipino population of over 200,000), I was under the impression JL carries a good number of SAN-MNL passengers though NRT. Since HND does not accommodate that type of connection, my guess is that JL maintains SAN service through NRT.
We're up.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Mon May 20, 2019 3:16 am

Coronado990 wrote:
It would be nice to see the SAN-NRT flight on JL switch to HND. However, due to a lack of PR service to SAN (despite a Filipino population of over 200,000), I was under the impression JL carries a good number of SAN-MNL passengers though NRT. Since HND does not accommodate that type of connection, my guess is that JL maintains SAN service through NRT.


That's an interesting point. Similar to one noted above regarding Chinese destinations. It's going to put ANA/JAL in a pickle to decide at least until they are able to move more destinations to HND.
 
FSDan
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Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Mon May 20, 2019 3:38 am

downdata wrote:
DL/AA will never fly from Guam.


While you're absolutely correct that it was UA and not DL that requested HND-GUM in this proceeding, did you realize that DL did fly to GUM from the time of the NW/DL merger until just last year, when they cut NRT-GUM and NRT-SPN? I wasn't sure if you were just speaking of the future (in which case I agree - I don't see DL returning to GUM anytime soon), or if you were making a blanket statement that GUM is not the type of destination that DL would serve (which would be easily disproved by a decade of completed flights).
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
LurveBus
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Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Mon May 20, 2019 12:23 pm

Even though much of the traffic will indeed shift to HND, is DO really going to drop NRT in its entirety? Surely there’s still a market for 767 service from HNL and a mainland gateway like SEA or MSP that can maintain NRT as a mini scissor-hub for SIN and MNL.

In any case, I doubt either flight will be dropped until after the olympics. No use cutting flights to Tokyo when there’s likely going to be lots of demand.

VictorKilo wrote:
I wouldn't rule out a return of DTW-NGO-MNL. The demand from NGO is stronger in premium classes, while the demand from MNL is stronger in economy class. These two complementary markets were served by a 744 in the past, and could be served by a 339 in the future.


The problem is that both PR and 5J have since encroached on the NGO market in Delta’s absence.
 
kavok
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Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Mon May 20, 2019 3:08 pm

Delta is soon to be done in NRT. They will not be flying a half-empty flight from the US mainland to NRT just to continue operating SIN/MNL. If operating SIN/MNL is that important, they’ll either fly it direct from the mainland, utilize KE, or (unlikely but possibly) utilize KIX/NGO. By summer 2020 there will be no DL in NRT.

What I find more interesting is what other NRT flights may get dropped. Simply put, the market isn’t big enough for UA/NH and AA/JL to add 20 new HND flights and not be forced to drop some of their NRT flights as well. And while I expect many of the cuts will be NRT-Hawaii/beach markets, I am making some predictions on what mainland US-NRT flights get cut in favor of new HND flights:

United, in their proposal, said they would drop ORD/IAD/IAH-NRT if they got HND slots. They got 2 of the 3, and I fully expect NH to use one of their slots on IAH-HND, effectively meaning UA will be dropping ORD,IAH,IAD-NRT. (NH will likely still continue all 3 to NRT on their metal).

My guess for NHs 6 HND adds are IAH (replacing UAs IAH-NRT), SFO, SJC (replacing SJC-NRT), and some Hawaii/Guam flights.

American only flies to NRT from DFW, LAX, and ORD. All three likely remain, unless they get picked up by JAL instead. Note in this prediction DFW goes from 2x daily NRT to 1x daily to each NRT/HND on AA metal.

Considering JAL, my guess for the 6 HND slots are BOS (replacing NRT), SAN (replacing NRT), SEA (toss up on whether this is an addition or replacement of NRT), one of LAX/DFW to HND, and two Hawaii-HND flights.

Curious what others could see happening in this regard.
 
klm617
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Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 3:32 pm

I think one of the things that people have over looked is what do the Delta awards of HND mean for MSP-HND. Before MSP-HND was unique as it was the only connection point for Delta for customers who wanted to fly to HND instead of NRT. Now that has all changed because Delta customers can access HND with connections from all their hubs. Does this mean the end of MSP-HND because all this extra access is going to negatively impact that flight in a big way. Also as far as SIN and MNL what is the possibility of Delta operating from NRT to HNL, SEA or DTW to continue to feed those two destinations as two of those three would be the most likely to continue to have NRT access..
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
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Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 3:35 pm

kavok wrote:
Delta is soon to be done in NRT. They will not be flying a half-empty flight from the US mainland to NRT just to continue operating SIN/MNL. If operating SIN/MNL is that important, they’ll either fly it direct from the mainland, utilize KE, or (unlikely but possibly) utilize KIX/NGO. By summer 2020 there will be no DL in NRT.

What I find more interesting is what other NRT flights may get dropped. Simply put, the market isn’t big enough for UA/NH and AA/JL to add 20 new HND flights and not be forced to drop some of their NRT flights as well. And while I expect many of the cuts will be NRT-Hawaii/beach markets, I am making some predictions on what mainland US-NRT flights get cut in favor of new HND flights:

United, in their proposal, said they would drop ORD/IAD/IAH-NRT if they got HND slots. They got 2 of the 3, and I fully expect NH to use one of their slots on IAH-HND, effectively meaning UA will be dropping ORD,IAH,IAD-NRT. (NH will likely still continue all 3 to NRT on their metal).

My guess for NHs 6 HND adds are IAH (replacing UAs IAH-NRT), SFO, SJC (replacing SJC-NRT), and some Hawaii/Guam flights.

American only flies to NRT from DFW, LAX, and ORD. All three likely remain, unless they get picked up by JAL instead. Note in this prediction DFW goes from 2x daily NRT to 1x daily to each NRT/HND on AA metal.

Considering JAL, my guess for the 6 HND slots are BOS (replacing NRT), SAN (replacing NRT), SEA (toss up on whether this is an addition or replacement of NRT), one of LAX/DFW to HND, and two Hawaii-HND flights.

Curious what others could see happening in this regard.


I'd really like to see NH come in and do DTW-NRT 3 or 4 weekly it seems with all the DTW Japan traffic that there must be some Japan based customers that would rather fly their home based airline rather than Delta and since Delta has basically called it quits in Japan their loyalty to that market is now minimal.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2110
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 4:10 pm

klm617 wrote:
kavok wrote:
Delta is soon to be done in NRT. They will not be flying a half-empty flight from the US mainland to NRT just to continue operating SIN/MNL. If operating SIN/MNL is that important, they’ll either fly it direct from the mainland, utilize KE, or (unlikely but possibly) utilize KIX/NGO. By summer 2020 there will be no DL in NRT.

What I find more interesting is what other NRT flights may get dropped. Simply put, the market isn’t big enough for UA/NH and AA/JL to add 20 new HND flights and not be forced to drop some of their NRT flights as well. And while I expect many of the cuts will be NRT-Hawaii/beach markets, I am making some predictions on what mainland US-NRT flights get cut in favor of new HND flights:

United, in their proposal, said they would drop ORD/IAD/IAH-NRT if they got HND slots. They got 2 of the 3, and I fully expect NH to use one of their slots on IAH-HND, effectively meaning UA will be dropping ORD,IAH,IAD-NRT. (NH will likely still continue all 3 to NRT on their metal).

My guess for NHs 6 HND adds are IAH (replacing UAs IAH-NRT), SFO, SJC (replacing SJC-NRT), and some Hawaii/Guam flights.

American only flies to NRT from DFW, LAX, and ORD. All three likely remain, unless they get picked up by JAL instead. Note in this prediction DFW goes from 2x daily NRT to 1x daily to each NRT/HND on AA metal.

Considering JAL, my guess for the 6 HND slots are BOS (replacing NRT), SAN (replacing NRT), SEA (toss up on whether this is an addition or replacement of NRT), one of LAX/DFW to HND, and two Hawaii-HND flights.

Curious what others could see happening in this regard.


I'd really like to see NH come in and do DTW-NRT 3 or 4 weekly it seems with all the DTW Japan traffic that there must be some Japan based customers that would rather fly their home based airline rather than Delta and since Delta has basically called it quits in Japan their loyalty to that market is now minimal.


Yea, 10 flights a day is calling it quits.
 
klm617
Posts: 4339
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Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 4:27 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
kavok wrote:
Delta is soon to be done in NRT. They will not be flying a half-empty flight from the US mainland to NRT just to continue operating SIN/MNL. If operating SIN/MNL is that important, they’ll either fly it direct from the mainland, utilize KE, or (unlikely but possibly) utilize KIX/NGO. By summer 2020 there will be no DL in NRT.

What I find more interesting is what other NRT flights may get dropped. Simply put, the market isn’t big enough for UA/NH and AA/JL to add 20 new HND flights and not be forced to drop some of their NRT flights as well. And while I expect many of the cuts will be NRT-Hawaii/beach markets, I am making some predictions on what mainland US-NRT flights get cut in favor of new HND flights:

United, in their proposal, said they would drop ORD/IAD/IAH-NRT if they got HND slots. They got 2 of the 3, and I fully expect NH to use one of their slots on IAH-HND, effectively meaning UA will be dropping ORD,IAH,IAD-NRT. (NH will likely still continue all 3 to NRT on their metal).

My guess for NHs 6 HND adds are IAH (replacing UAs IAH-NRT), SFO, SJC (replacing SJC-NRT), and some Hawaii/Guam flights.

American only flies to NRT from DFW, LAX, and ORD. All three likely remain, unless they get picked up by JAL instead. Note in this prediction DFW goes from 2x daily NRT to 1x daily to each NRT/HND on AA metal.

Considering JAL, my guess for the 6 HND slots are BOS (replacing NRT), SAN (replacing NRT), SEA (toss up on whether this is an addition or replacement of NRT), one of LAX/DFW to HND, and two Hawaii-HND flights.

Curious what others could see happening in this regard.


I'd really like to see NH come in and do DTW-NRT 3 or 4 weekly it seems with all the DTW Japan traffic that there must be some Japan based customers that would rather fly their home based airline rather than Delta and since Delta has basically called it quits in Japan their loyalty to that market is now minimal.


Yea, 10 flights a day is calling it quits.


Where do you get 10 flights a day ?

ATL-HND
DTW-HND
SEA-HND
MSP-HND
HNL-HND
PDX-HND

Japanese carries and their JV partners can connect you to far more cities in the US nonstop than Delta does. Causing what once was NW/DL loyalty to shift to the Japanese carriers that can better suit the customer's needs
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
SESGDL
Posts: 2812
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2001 6:25 am

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 4:36 pm

klm617 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
klm617 wrote:

I'd really like to see NH come in and do DTW-NRT 3 or 4 weekly it seems with all the DTW Japan traffic that there must be some Japan based customers that would rather fly their home based airline rather than Delta and since Delta has basically called it quits in Japan their loyalty to that market is now minimal.


Yea, 10 flights a day is calling it quits.


Where do you get 10 flights a day ?

ATL-HND
DTW-HND
SEA-HND
MSP-HND
HNL-HND
PDX-HND

Japanese carries and their JV partners can connect you to far more cities in the US nonstop than Delta does. Causing what once was NW/DL loyalty to shift to the Japanese carriers that can better suit the customer's needs


You missed LAX-HND. And regardless, 7 daily flights is not remotely close to "calling it quits." Outside of London, Paris and Amsterdam, name another large international city (Canada and Mexico excluded, for obvious reasons) where DL has more daily flights than that. I guess that means DL has called it quits nearly everywhere...

Jeremy
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2110
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 4:41 pm

SESGDL wrote:
klm617 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

Yea, 10 flights a day is calling it quits.


Where do you get 10 flights a day ?

ATL-HND
DTW-HND
SEA-HND
MSP-HND
HNL-HND
PDX-HND

Japanese carries and their JV partners can connect you to far more cities in the US nonstop than Delta does. Causing what once was NW/DL loyalty to shift to the Japanese carriers that can better suit the customer's needs


You missed LAX-HND. And regardless, 7 daily flights is not remotely close to "calling it quits." Outside of London, Paris and Amsterdam, name another large international city (Canada and Mexico excluded, for obvious reasons) where DL has more daily flights than that. I guess that means DL has called it quits nearly everywhere...

Jeremy


+HNL-KIX
+HNL-NGO
+SEA-KIX
+DTW-NGO

So, you're right, I was wrong. Up to 11 flights a day, not 10 (you said DL was calling it quits in Japan).
 
klm617
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Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 4:57 pm

SESGDL wrote:
klm617 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

Yea, 10 flights a day is calling it quits.


Where do you get 10 flights a day ?

ATL-HND
DTW-HND
SEA-HND
MSP-HND
HNL-HND
PDX-HND

Japanese carries and their JV partners can connect you to far more cities in the US nonstop than Delta does. Causing what once was NW/DL loyalty to shift to the Japanese carriers that can better suit the customer's needs


You missed LAX-HND. And regardless, 7 daily flights is not remotely close to "calling it quits." Outside of London, Paris and Amsterdam, name another large international city (Canada and Mexico excluded, for obvious reasons) where DL has more daily flights than that. I guess that means DL has called it quits nearly everywhere...

Jeremy


Delta did the same thing at Frankfurt that they are now doing in Tokyo and look at how their loyalty eroded there. The same can be said in the Tokyo market. When you reduce accessibility people will jump ship and DL is no where what it was and isn't even close when it comes to AA/JL and UA/NH. So yes Japan is becoming a weak market for Delta as much of Asia has.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
chonetsao
Posts: 272
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 3:55 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 5:22 pm

I would think the next logical step for JAL and ANA is to build frequency on existing HND routes to provide business travellers multiple daily schedule to one or two major getaway hubs (like LAX/SFO/ORD/DFW etc.).
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 5727
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 5:32 pm

klm617 wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
klm617 wrote:

Where do you get 10 flights a day ?

ATL-HND
DTW-HND
SEA-HND
MSP-HND
HNL-HND
PDX-HND

Japanese carries and their JV partners can connect you to far more cities in the US nonstop than Delta does. Causing what once was NW/DL loyalty to shift to the Japanese carriers that can better suit the customer's needs


You missed LAX-HND. And regardless, 7 daily flights is not remotely close to "calling it quits." Outside of London, Paris and Amsterdam, name another large international city (Canada and Mexico excluded, for obvious reasons) where DL has more daily flights than that. I guess that means DL has called it quits nearly everywhere...

Jeremy


Delta did the same thing at Frankfurt that they are now doing in Tokyo and look at how their loyalty eroded there. The same can be said in the Tokyo market. When you reduce accessibility people will jump ship and DL is no where what it was and isn't even close when it comes to AA/JL and UA/NH. So yes Japan is becoming a weak market for Delta as much of Asia has.


And boy are they suffering because of it! Look at how much money DL is losing!!!!

:-I
Religion is the root of evil...
 
klm617
Posts: 4339
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 6:14 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
klm617 wrote:
SESGDL wrote:

You missed LAX-HND. And regardless, 7 daily flights is not remotely close to "calling it quits." Outside of London, Paris and Amsterdam, name another large international city (Canada and Mexico excluded, for obvious reasons) where DL has more daily flights than that. I guess that means DL has called it quits nearly everywhere...

Jeremy


Delta did the same thing at Frankfurt that they are now doing in Tokyo and look at how their loyalty eroded there. The same can be said in the Tokyo market. When you reduce accessibility people will jump ship and DL is no where what it was and isn't even close when it comes to AA/JL and UA/NH. So yes Japan is becoming a weak market for Delta as much of Asia has.


And boy are they suffering because of it! Look at how much money DL is losing!!!!

:-I


Let's talk in 5 or 10 years what they are doing now may look good but what is the long term effect.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2110
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 6:51 pm

klm617 wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
klm617 wrote:

Where do you get 10 flights a day ?

ATL-HND
DTW-HND
SEA-HND
MSP-HND
HNL-HND
PDX-HND

Japanese carries and their JV partners can connect you to far more cities in the US nonstop than Delta does. Causing what once was NW/DL loyalty to shift to the Japanese carriers that can better suit the customer's needs


You missed LAX-HND. And regardless, 7 daily flights is not remotely close to "calling it quits." Outside of London, Paris and Amsterdam, name another large international city (Canada and Mexico excluded, for obvious reasons) where DL has more daily flights than that. I guess that means DL has called it quits nearly everywhere...

Jeremy


Delta did the same thing at Frankfurt that they are now doing in Tokyo and look at how their loyalty eroded there. The same can be said in the Tokyo market. When you reduce accessibility people will jump ship and DL is no where what it was and isn't even close when it comes to AA/JL and UA/NH. So yes Japan is becoming a weak market for Delta as much of Asia has.


So you'll also ignore the fact of how strong KE is in the market and that there is a JV. Ok....
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 5727
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 6:52 pm

klm617 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
klm617 wrote:

Delta did the same thing at Frankfurt that they are now doing in Tokyo and look at how their loyalty eroded there. The same can be said in the Tokyo market. When you reduce accessibility people will jump ship and DL is no where what it was and isn't even close when it comes to AA/JL and UA/NH. So yes Japan is becoming a weak market for Delta as much of Asia has.


And boy are they suffering because of it! Look at how much money DL is losing!!!!

:-I


Let's talk in 5 or 10 years what they are doing now may look good but what is the long term effect.


Oh whatever. They haven’t been heavily entrenched in FRA since the 90s and they’ve been reducing NW’s old NRT hub for years. They know what makes money and what doesn’t.
Religion is the root of evil...
 
User avatar
Devilfish
Posts: 6486
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Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 7:03 pm

Coronado990 wrote:
It would be nice to see the SAN-NRT flight on JL switch to HND. However, due to a lack of PR service to SAN (despite a Filipino population of over 200,000), I was under the impression JL carries a good number of SAN-MNL passengers though NRT. Since HND does not accommodate that type of connection, my guess is that JL maintains SAN service through NRT.

Or...ANA could send its 788 to MNL via NRT, route authority permitting.....




LurveBus wrote:
Surely there’s still a market for 767 service from HNL and a mainland gateway like SEA or MSP that can maintain NRT as a mini scissor-hub for SIN and MNL.

LurveBus wrote:
The problem is that both PR and 5J have since encroached on the NGO market in Delta’s absence.

Speaking of PR, by virtue of their partnership, might they cooperate with ANA on SEA-MNL with the possible withdrawal of DL to take advantage of the more premium traffic to NRT...given that it's only one nautical mile farther than the nonstop on Great Circle?.....

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=SEA-NRT-MNL,SEA-MNL&DU=nm
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
lavalampluva
Posts: 1360
Joined: Tue Jun 24, 2014 7:33 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 7:09 pm

klm617 wrote:
I think one of the things that people have over looked is what do the Delta awards of HND mean for MSP-HND. Before MSP-HND was unique as it was the only connection point for Delta for customers who wanted to fly to HND instead of NRT. Now that has all changed because Delta customers can access HND with connections from all their hubs. Does this mean the end of MSP-HND because all this extra access is going to negatively impact that flight in a big way. Also as far as SIN and MNL what is the possibility of Delta operating from NRT to HNL, SEA or DTW to continue to feed those two destinations as two of those three would be the most likely to continue to have NRT access..

DL isn't going to be ending any of their existing service to Tokyo, with exception of transferring flights from NRT to HND. Sorry to disappoint you but DL isn't going to fly passengers between DTW-HND and DTW-NRT.

I wouldn't be surprised if they ended their inter-Asian service. That's been withering on the vine for a while now.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
727200
Posts: 633
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2017 5:31 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 7:56 pm

The power house days of NW in the Pacific are over. DL has been in a constant decline in Asia and all the while UA is taking over the Pacific. They are so far in drivers seat, serious doubt if they can be caught.

No excuses on DL part for allowing this to happen.
 
klakzky123
Posts: 648
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2016 4:05 am

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 8:03 pm

727200 wrote:
The power house days of NW in the Pacific are over. DL has been in a constant decline in Asia and all the while UA is taking over the Pacific. They are so far in drivers seat, serious doubt if they can be caught.

No excuses on DL part for allowing this to happen.


They have perfectly reasonable excuses. They tried pretty hard to undercut AA and bailout JAL in exchange for JAL joining Skyteam (and agreeing to a JV). AA managed to convince JAL to stay and matched DL's financial offer.

What was DL supposed to do? They even tried bailing out Skymark at one point. DL lost a game of musical chairs and had no Japanese partner while AA and UA each ended up with a joint venture. It gets tiring to see people act like Delta just didn't care about Tokyo. They tried really hard to make Tokyo work but a fifth freedom hub can't compete with two joint ventures. Delta had to move on and find another option and they finally did with KE. It's unfortunate that the legacy of Northwest is over but the strength of NW's Asia network became irrelevant once planes could overfly Tokyo and airlines could form joint ventures.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2110
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 8:17 pm

klakzky123 wrote:
727200 wrote:
The power house days of NW in the Pacific are over. DL has been in a constant decline in Asia and all the while UA is taking over the Pacific. They are so far in drivers seat, serious doubt if they can be caught.

No excuses on DL part for allowing this to happen.


They have perfectly reasonable excuses. They tried pretty hard to undercut AA and bailout JAL in exchange for JAL joining Skyteam (and agreeing to a JV). AA managed to convince JAL to stay and matched DL's financial offer.

What was DL supposed to do? They even tried bailing out Skymark at one point. DL lost a game of musical chairs and had no Japanese partner while AA and UA each ended up with a joint venture. It gets tiring to see people act like Delta just didn't care about Tokyo. They tried really hard to make Tokyo work but a fifth freedom hub can't compete with two joint ventures. Delta had to move on and find another option and they finally did with KE. It's unfortunate that the legacy of Northwest is over but the strength of NW's Asia network became irrelevant once planes could overfly Tokyo and airlines could form joint ventures.


Its also interesting that DL should take substantial losses in order to maintain a market share position, all while considering that UA is hubbed at one of the best TPAC destinations (SFO). Heaven forbid DL give up market share in the pursuit of profitability (for a publicly traded company).
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 5389
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 8:28 pm

727200 wrote:
The power house days of NW in the Pacific are over. DL has been in a constant decline in Asia and all the while UA is taking over the Pacific. They are so far in drivers seat, serious doubt if they can be caught.

No excuses on DL part for allowing this to happen.


You can take off the rose-colored glasses with the NWA logo. NW didn't start non-stops DTW-PEK or DTW-PVG even though it had the rights. NW had ended JFK-NRT before the merger, and had ended service to SYD. The relevance of the NRT hub has been declining for decades. I'll give you a date for the beginning of the end: Start of CO's non-stop EWR-HKG, March 2001 with a 777-200ER. It showed you didn't need 744s for range, and that you didn't need to connect. DL has just been trying to make the best of a bad situation for a decade.
 
klm617
Posts: 4339
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 10:04 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
727200 wrote:
The power house days of NW in the Pacific are over. DL has been in a constant decline in Asia and all the while UA is taking over the Pacific. They are so far in drivers seat, serious doubt if they can be caught.

No excuses on DL part for allowing this to happen.


You can take off the rose-colored glasses with the NWA logo. NW didn't start non-stops DTW-PEK or DTW-PVG even though it had the rights. NW had ended JFK-NRT before the merger, and had ended service to SYD. The relevance of the NRT hub has been declining for decades. I'll give you a date for the beginning of the end: Start of CO's non-stop EWR-HKG, March 2001 with a 777-200ER. It showed you didn't need 744s for range, and that you didn't need to connect. DL has just been trying to make the best of a bad situation for a decade.


Check your facts NW operated both DTW-PEK and DTW-SHA
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
Posts: 4339
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 10:05 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
klakzky123 wrote:
727200 wrote:
The power house days of NW in the Pacific are over. DL has been in a constant decline in Asia and all the while UA is taking over the Pacific. They are so far in drivers seat, serious doubt if they can be caught.

No excuses on DL part for allowing this to happen.


They have perfectly reasonable excuses. They tried pretty hard to undercut AA and bailout JAL in exchange for JAL joining Skyteam (and agreeing to a JV). AA managed to convince JAL to stay and matched DL's financial offer.

What was DL supposed to do? They even tried bailing out Skymark at one point. DL lost a game of musical chairs and had no Japanese partner while AA and UA each ended up with a joint venture. It gets tiring to see people act like Delta just didn't care about Tokyo. They tried really hard to make Tokyo work but a fifth freedom hub can't compete with two joint ventures. Delta had to move on and find another option and they finally did with KE. It's unfortunate that the legacy of Northwest is over but the strength of NW's Asia network became irrelevant once planes could overfly Tokyo and airlines could form joint ventures.


Its also interesting that DL should take substantial losses in order to maintain a market share position, all while considering that UA is hubbed at one of the best TPAC destinations (SFO). Heaven forbid DL give up market share in the pursuit of profitability (for a publicly traded company).


They have no issue doing that in the Boston Market.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
n2dru
Posts: 130
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:02 am

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 10:18 pm

klakzky123 wrote:
727200 wrote:
The power house days of NW in the Pacific are over. DL has been in a constant decline in Asia and all the while UA is taking over the Pacific. They are so far in drivers seat, serious doubt if they can be caught.

No excuses on DL part for allowing this to happen.


They have perfectly reasonable excuses. They tried pretty hard to undercut AA and bailout JAL in exchange for JAL joining Skyteam (and agreeing to a JV). AA managed to convince JAL to stay and matched DL's financial offer.

What was DL supposed to do? They even tried bailing out Skymark at one point. DL lost a game of musical chairs and had no Japanese partner while AA and UA each ended up with a joint venture. It gets tiring to see people act like Delta just didn't care about Tokyo. They tried really hard to make Tokyo work but a fifth freedom hub can't compete with two joint ventures. Delta had to move on and find another option and they finally did with KE. It's unfortunate that the legacy of Northwest is over but the strength of NW's Asia network became irrelevant once planes could overfly Tokyo and airlines could form joint ventures.


Exactly!! The market dynamics have changed and if NW was still around im sure they would have evolved just as DL is doing. DL put up a good fight (looking for a JV partner in Japan) but realized they have to do what they have to do to continue to make money.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2110
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 23, 2019 10:21 pm

klm617 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
klakzky123 wrote:

They have perfectly reasonable excuses. They tried pretty hard to undercut AA and bailout JAL in exchange for JAL joining Skyteam (and agreeing to a JV). AA managed to convince JAL to stay and matched DL's financial offer.

What was DL supposed to do? They even tried bailing out Skymark at one point. DL lost a game of musical chairs and had no Japanese partner while AA and UA each ended up with a joint venture. It gets tiring to see people act like Delta just didn't care about Tokyo. They tried really hard to make Tokyo work but a fifth freedom hub can't compete with two joint ventures. Delta had to move on and find another option and they finally did with KE. It's unfortunate that the legacy of Northwest is over but the strength of NW's Asia network became irrelevant once planes could overfly Tokyo and airlines could form joint ventures.


Its also interesting that DL should take substantial losses in order to maintain a market share position, all while considering that UA is hubbed at one of the best TPAC destinations (SFO). Heaven forbid DL give up market share in the pursuit of profitability (for a publicly traded company).


They have no issue doing that in the Boston Market.


And in the SEA market. But those are different calculations and DL clearly decided it was not worth it to take the substantial TPAC losses.
 
winginit
Posts: 2542
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Fri May 24, 2019 8:30 pm

klm617 wrote:
When you reduce accessibility people will jump ship and DL is no where what it was and isn't even close when it comes to AA/JL and UA/NH. So yes Japan is becoming a weak market for Delta as much of Asia has.


Much of Asia has become weak for Delta? That's certainly interesting given they're now up and running with a JV with Korean... let's look at, I don't know, actual numbers?

Nonstop Capacity between the United States and Asia, Flights / Seats (Year Ending May 2019), OAG:


UA: 26,468 Flights || 6.7M Seats
NH: 10,670 Flights || 2.5M Seats
Combined: 37,138 Flights || 9.2M Seats

DL: 14,149 Flights || 3.7M Seats
KE: 11,412 Flights || 3.7M Seats
Combined: 25,561 Flights || 7.4M Seats

AA: 9,012 Flights || 2.5M Seats
JL: 13,770 Flights || 3.0M Seats
Combined: 22,782 Flights || 5.5M Seats

Your assertions as they relate to broader Asia are, well, wrong.
 
jayunited
Posts: 2137
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Fri May 24, 2019 9:34 pm

727200 wrote:
The power house days of NW in the Pacific are over. DL has been in a constant decline in Asia and all the while UA is taking over the Pacific. They are so far in drivers seat, serious doubt if they can be caught.

No excuses on DL part for allowing this to happen.


There is more to Asia than just NRT. There are two things that have allowed UA to maintain a relative strong hold across the Pacific. First and foremost is our SFO hub and secondly was the merger with CO which gave UA access to 787s far sooner than UA would have ever had without it. My last statement is to meant to be interpreted as me saying DL should have kept NW's 787 order, its just a statement of facts the CO/UA merger gave UA access to an aircraft UA wouldn't have had in our fleet for years. By UA's own admission the 787 has been a game changer for us across the Pacific. DL is now starting to get comparable aircraft like the A359 and A339NEO, I suspect these aircraft will greatly benefit DL in the same way the 787 has benefited UA across the Pacific.

Dismantling their NRT hub wasn't the problem the problem was DL didn't have the right aircraft in their fleet that could efficiently over fly NRT while UA thanks to CO and a merger that happened at just the right time did.
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Topic Author
Posts: 23624
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Fri May 24, 2019 10:00 pm

jayunited wrote:

There is more to Asia than just NRT. There are two things that have allowed UA to maintain a relative strong hold across the Pacific. First and foremost is our SFO hub and secondly was the merger with CO which gave UA access to 787s far sooner than UA would have ever had without it. My last statement is to meant to be interpreted as me saying DL should have kept NW's 787 order, its just a statement of facts the CO/UA merger gave UA access to an aircraft UA wouldn't have had in our fleet for years. By UA's own admission the 787 has been a game changer for us across the Pacific. DL is now starting to get comparable aircraft like the A359 and A339NEO, I suspect these aircraft will greatly benefit DL in the same way the 787 has benefited UA across the Pacific.

Dismantling their NRT hub wasn't the problem the problem was DL didn't have the right aircraft in their fleet that could efficiently over fly NRT while UA thanks to CO and a merger that happened at just the right time did.


UA Pacific advantage vs DL predates the CO merger.

United long prior overflew NRT on some services (HKG, TPE, SEL, PEK, PVG, etc) and arrival of 777 and their deployment across the Pacific around turn of the century hastened this network advantage even further.

One tidbit to show how much of a drag NRT has been on DL, according to the book Glory Lost and Found, the NRT operation lost money for 8-years running for NW leading up to the merger. The once crown jewel of NW became a very rusty affair at the end.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
tphuang
Posts: 2977
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Fri May 24, 2019 10:24 pm

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
When you reduce accessibility people will jump ship and DL is no where what it was and isn't even close when it comes to AA/JL and UA/NH. So yes Japan is becoming a weak market for Delta as much of Asia has.


Much of Asia has become weak for Delta? That's certainly interesting given they're now up and running with a JV with Korean... let's look at, I don't know, actual numbers?

Nonstop Capacity between the United States and Asia, Flights / Seats (Year Ending May 2019), OAG:


UA: 26,468 Flights || 6.7M Seats
NH: 10,670 Flights || 2.5M Seats
Combined: 37,138 Flights || 9.2M Seats

DL: 14,149 Flights || 3.7M Seats
KE: 11,412 Flights || 3.7M Seats
Combined: 25,561 Flights || 7.4M Seats

AA: 9,012 Flights || 2.5M Seats
JL: 13,770 Flights || 3.0M Seats
Combined: 22,782 Flights || 5.5M Seats

Your assertions as they relate to broader Asia are, well, wrong.


These jvs ignore the fact that star alliance have stronger partner airlines in general in Asia. If you are someone that going to Asia from New York or Los Angeles, Delta or akyteam is not an option unless you go to Korea. ke having higher capacity indicates how much connection traffic is routed through there, but the higher yielding direct traffic to the biggest 3 business destinations are Tokyo HK and Singapore. For those, Delta is way behind. Frankly, having a lot of connection traffic through Seoul doesn't make you strong in Asia.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 5727
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Fri May 24, 2019 10:30 pm

tphuang wrote:
winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
When you reduce accessibility people will jump ship and DL is no where what it was and isn't even close when it comes to AA/JL and UA/NH. So yes Japan is becoming a weak market for Delta as much of Asia has.


Much of Asia has become weak for Delta? That's certainly interesting given they're now up and running with a JV with Korean... let's look at, I don't know, actual numbers?

Nonstop Capacity between the United States and Asia, Flights / Seats (Year Ending May 2019), OAG:


UA: 26,468 Flights || 6.7M Seats
NH: 10,670 Flights || 2.5M Seats
Combined: 37,138 Flights || 9.2M Seats

DL: 14,149 Flights || 3.7M Seats
KE: 11,412 Flights || 3.7M Seats
Combined: 25,561 Flights || 7.4M Seats

AA: 9,012 Flights || 2.5M Seats
JL: 13,770 Flights || 3.0M Seats
Combined: 22,782 Flights || 5.5M Seats

Your assertions as they relate to broader Asia are, well, wrong.


These jvs ignore the fact that star alliance have stronger partner airlines in general in Asia. If you are someone that going to Asia from New York or Los Angeles, Delta or akyteam is not an option unless you go to Korea. ke having higher capacity indicates how much connection traffic is routed through there, but the higher yielding direct traffic to the biggest 3 business destinations are Tokyo HK and Singapore. For those, Delta is way behind. Frankly, having a lot of connection traffic through Seoul doesn't make you strong in Asia.


Thats not true.

DL flies LAX-PVG/HND. MU flies LAX/JFK-PVG and CI flies LAX/JFK-TPE.
Religion is the root of evil...
 
winginit
Posts: 2542
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Fri May 24, 2019 10:41 pm

tphuang wrote:
If you are someone that going to Asia from New York or Los Angeles, Delta or akyteam is not an option unless you go to Korea.


What a comically false statement. Did you even glance at a schedule before posting? DL to PVG and TYO from LAX? MU to PVG from JFK? Do better.

tphuang wrote:
ke having higher capacity indicates how much connection traffic is routed through there, but the higher yielding direct traffic to the biggest 3 business destinations are Tokyo HK and Singapore. For those, Delta is way behind. Frankly, having a lot of connection traffic through Seoul doesn't make you strong in Asia.


Then do tell, what metric for Asia strength do you prefer to look at? Because it seems as though having a JV partner established in what is arguably the most effective connecting hub in North Asia is a logical source of strength for an Asian network.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2977
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Fri May 24, 2019 10:55 pm

winginit wrote:
tphuang wrote:
If you are someone that going to Asia from New York or Los Angeles, Delta or akyteam is not an option unless you go to Korea.


What a comically false statement. Did you even glance at a schedule before posting? DL to PVG and TYO from LAX? MU to PVG from JFK? Do better.

tphuang wrote:
ke having higher capacity indicates how much connection traffic is routed through there, but the higher yielding direct traffic to the biggest 3 business destinations are Tokyo HK and Singapore. For those, Delta is way behind. Frankly, having a lot of connection traffic through Seoul doesn't make you strong in Asia.


Then do tell, what metric for Asia strength do you prefer to look at? Because it seems as though having a JV partner established in what is arguably the most effective connecting hub in North Asia is a logical source of strength for an Asian network.

Right, so you can only point to Shanghai and tokyo. And they are the wekeast to Tokyo. If you aren't going to Shanghai then they are definitely the wekeast.

Alliance partnership matters into this case since that's a big part of how you would collect qualifying miles. It's no secret that star alliance is the strongest in Asia and United is also the strongest on their own metals. Aa on its own metal is quite weak to Asia but it's alliance partners are very convenient to the top business destinations to Asia. Seoul and Shanghai are just not as important of a destination as tokyo, HK or Singapore.

Put yourself in the shoes of someone at big law and Finance firm. Are you more likely to set up other offices in tokyo HK or Singapore or even Sydney or in Seoul and Shanghai where the local currency are not easily transferable out of the country. I don't know of any finance firm setting up big offices in Shanghai or Seoul.
 
aviationaware
Posts: 2812
Joined: Mon May 19, 2014 12:02 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Fri May 24, 2019 11:14 pm

klm617 wrote:
So yes Japan is becoming a weak market for Delta as much of Asia has.


Well Pacific is certainly Delta's weakest region, but the fact that despite that it is still performing almost on par with United's Pacific business, with United being the leader in that region out of the US3, tells you all you need to know.

2018 figures:
Delta Pacific PRASM 10.76 Yield 12.49
American Pacific PRASM 8.22 Yield 10.33
United Pacific PRASM 10.31 Yield 13.00

Delta is by far the best managed airline in the world right now, so chances are what they're doing is the right thing to do.
 
winginit
Posts: 2542
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Fri May 24, 2019 11:46 pm

tphuang wrote:
winginit wrote:
tphuang wrote:
If you are someone that going to Asia from New York or Los Angeles, Delta or akyteam is not an option unless you go to Korea.


What a comically false statement. Did you even glance at a schedule before posting? DL to PVG and TYO from LAX? MU to PVG from JFK? Do better.

tphuang wrote:
ke having higher capacity indicates how much connection traffic is routed through there, but the higher yielding direct traffic to the biggest 3 business destinations are Tokyo HK and Singapore. For those, Delta is way behind. Frankly, having a lot of connection traffic through Seoul doesn't make you strong in Asia.


Then do tell, what metric for Asia strength do you prefer to look at? Because it seems as though having a JV partner established in what is arguably the most effective connecting hub in North Asia is a logical source of strength for an Asian network.

Right, so you can only point to Shanghai and tokyo. And they are the wekeast to Tokyo. If you aren't going to Shanghai then they are definitely the wekeast.


Yes, I can point to Shanghai and Tokyo - a pretty blatantly obvious refute of your statement that there are no SkyTeam options between LAX/NYC and Asia.

tphuang wrote:
Alliance partnership matters into this case since that's a big part of how you would collect qualifying miles. It's no secret that star alliance is the strongest in Asia and United is also the strongest on their own metals. Aa on its own metal is quite weak to Asia but it's alliance partners are very convenient to the top business destinations to Asia. Seoul and Shanghai are just not as important of a destination as tokyo, HK or Singapore.


I don't disagree with what you've said there, but again, please quantify how you define Asian strength then. Is it only presence in Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Singapore? State your claim and quantify it.

tphuang wrote:
Put yourself in the shoes of someone at big law and Finance firm. Are you more likely to set up other offices in tokyo HK or Singapore or even Sydney or in Seoul and Shanghai where the local currency are not easily transferable out of the country. I don't know of any finance firm setting up big offices in Shanghai or Seoul.


You're aware that Citigroup literally has a tower in Shanghai yes? And JP Morgan Chase has a large office as well not to mention the large consulting firms although they're not purely finance firms. Point taken that a US Bank of Law Firm is more likely to have a larger presence in Singapore or Hong Kong, but don't discount the importance of a Shanghai presence.
 
andrewying
Posts: 17
Joined: Fri May 06, 2016 7:11 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Sat May 25, 2019 12:15 am

tphuang wrote:
winginit wrote:
tphuang wrote:
If you are someone that going to Asia from New York or Los Angeles, Delta or akyteam is not an option unless you go to Korea.


What a comically false statement. Did you even glance at a schedule before posting? DL to PVG and TYO from LAX? MU to PVG from JFK? Do better.

tphuang wrote:
ke having higher capacity indicates how much connection traffic is routed through there, but the higher yielding direct traffic to the biggest 3 business destinations are Tokyo HK and Singapore. For those, Delta is way behind. Frankly, having a lot of connection traffic through Seoul doesn't make you strong in Asia.


Then do tell, what metric for Asia strength do you prefer to look at? Because it seems as though having a JV partner established in what is arguably the most effective connecting hub in North Asia is a logical source of strength for an Asian network.

Right, so you can only point to Shanghai and tokyo. And they are the wekeast to Tokyo. If you aren't going to Shanghai then they are definitely the wekeast.

Alliance partnership matters into this case since that's a big part of how you would collect qualifying miles. It's no secret that star alliance is the strongest in Asia and United is also the strongest on their own metals. Aa on its own metal is quite weak to Asia but it's alliance partners are very convenient to the top business destinations to Asia. Seoul and Shanghai are just not as important of a destination as tokyo, HK or Singapore.

Put yourself in the shoes of someone at big law and Finance firm. Are you more likely to set up other offices in tokyo HK or Singapore or even Sydney or in Seoul and Shanghai where the local currency are not easily transferable out of the country. I don't know of any finance firm setting up big offices in Shanghai or Seoul.


What about all the consulting firms that have their greater China HQ in Shanghai, over HK, namely McKinsey. Shall I say more?
 
YYZORD
Posts: 288
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Sat May 25, 2019 3:34 am

Any chance for NH to add HND-DEN & HND-EWR with their 6 slots?
 
aviationaware
Posts: 2812
Joined: Mon May 19, 2014 12:02 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Sat May 25, 2019 6:40 am

YYZORD wrote:
Any chance for NH to add HND-DEN & HND-EWR with their 6 slots?


Possible, but I'd consider it more likely that NH will follow the trend and shift flights from Narita to Haneda rather than open new ones.
 
tphuang
Posts: 2977
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Sun May 26, 2019 11:42 am

winginit wrote:
tphuang wrote:
winginit wrote:

What a comically false statement. Did you even glance at a schedule before posting? DL to PVG and TYO from LAX? MU to PVG from JFK? Do better.



Then do tell, what metric for Asia strength do you prefer to look at? Because it seems as though having a JV partner established in what is arguably the most effective connecting hub in North Asia is a logical source of strength for an Asian network.

Right, so you can only point to Shanghai and tokyo. And they are the wekeast to Tokyo. If you aren't going to Shanghai then they are definitely the wekeast.


Yes, I can point to Shanghai and Tokyo - a pretty blatantly obvious refute of your statement that there are no SkyTeam options between LAX/NYC and Asia.


tphuang wrote:
Alliance partnership matters into this case since that's a big part of how you would collect qualifying miles. It's no secret that star alliance is the strongest in Asia and United is also the strongest on their own metals. Aa on its own metal is quite weak to Asia but it's alliance partners are very convenient to the top business destinations to Asia. Seoul and Shanghai are just not as important of a destination as tokyo, HK or Singapore.


I don't disagree with what you've said there, but again, please quantify how you define Asian strength then. Is it only presence in Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Singapore? State your claim and quantify it.

tphuang wrote:
Put yourself in the shoes of someone at big law and Finance firm. Are you more likely to set up other offices in tokyo HK or Singapore or even Sydney or in Seoul and Shanghai where the local currency are not easily transferable out of the country. I don't know of any finance firm setting up big offices in Shanghai or Seoul.


You're aware that Citigroup literally has a tower in Shanghai yes? And JP Morgan Chase has a large office as well not to mention the large consulting firms although they're not purely finance firms. Point taken that a US Bank of Law Firm is more likely to have a larger presence in Singapore or Hong Kong, but don't discount the importance of a Shanghai presence.


NYC to TOKYO:
https://www.google.com/flights#flt=/m/0 ... 0;sd:1;t:f
3 on UA/ANA and 2 on AA/JL
LAX to TOKYO
https://www.google.com/flights#flt=LAX. ... 0;sd:1;t:f
4 on UA/ANA + 1 on SQ and 3 on AA/JL, 1 on DL
I don't know how you can say their schedule to tokyo is competitive.

LAX to PEK
https://www.google.com/flights#flt=LAX. ... 0;sd:1;t:f
3 on AC and 1 on AA
NYC to PEK
https://www.google.com/flights#flt=/m/0 ... 0;sd:1;t:f
3 on AC and 1 on UA

NYC to HKG
https://www.google.com/flights#flt=/m/0 ... 0;sd:1;t:f
4 on CX and 1 on UA
LAX to HKG
https://www.google.com/flights#flt=/m/0 ... 0;sd:1;t:f
3 on CX, 1 on AA and 1 on HX

LAX/NYC to SIN
obviously only UA and SQ fly direct to SIN.
But aside from that, if you look up concur and want to avoid chinese airlines, CX has by far the best schedule on 1-stop itineraries.

LAX to ICN
https://www.google.com/flights#flt=LAX. ... 0;sd:1;t:f
2 on KE and 2 on OZ
NYC to ICN
https://www.google.com/flights#flt=/m/0 ... 0;sd:1;t:f
2 on KE and 1 on OZ

LAX to SYD
https://www.google.com/flights#flt=LAX. ... 0;sd:1;t:f
2 on DL/VA, 2 on AA/QF, 1 on UA
LAX to MEL
https://www.google.com/flights#flt=LAX. ... 0;sd:1;t:f
2 on AA/QF, 1 on DL/VA, 1 on UA

UA/*A have direct service everywhere and are only not competitive to HKG. AA vs DL is more of a tossup. Depends on which airport you are targeting. HKG/TYO are larger business market than PVG/ICN though

for other Asian destinations or from non-hub US cities on 1-stop itinerary, if you want to go for cheap, you can fly CA with *A, MU with ST and CZ with AA partner. Out of these, CA requires the least backtracking for connection and CZ requires the most. So CA is actually the best option for VFR travel. If you want to fly a non low fare airline, you can go with AC, ANA for *A. You can go with JL or CX for OW and KE for DL. Of that list, I'd AC/NH is about the same as CL/CX option, but *A also has BR. Both are far ahead of ST with just KE. CI only has 1 flight from NYC/LAX altogether. Not a great option.

So when you list KE having a lot of capacity to US, you have to remember KE is taking most of the connection flow for DL ff. Star alliance ff would be split between more airlines.

If you ever like looked up these itineraries to Asia, you'd see how often AC through YYZ on east coast or YVR on west coast offer the best options. So from non-hub us cities where without direct service to Asia, you are going to find the largest TPAC hubs SFO/YVR on west coast and EWR/YYZ on east coast to all be *A hubs. The gap between UA/*A vs the other 2 are huge. If you are flying to somewhere in Asia other than ICN frequently, DL simply can't be option for you. That's just the reality. ST is just weak in Asia outside of Shanghai and Seoul.

And India, that's another place where *A is far ahead of both ST/OW both through SFO or YVR/YYZ.

Shanghai is simply not where big western banks put their primary TPAC office. They are there to serve the Chinese market, but due to monetary restrictions inside China, you simply can't do more than serve domestic market. It's funny that in other argument, you bring up PRISM, but here you don't discuss the corporate account travel expenses from NYC/LA to Asia market. I'd be shocked if Tokyo isn't top of the list with Hong Kong and Singapore after them.
 
winginit
Posts: 2542
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Tue May 28, 2019 7:53 pm

tphuang wrote:
It's funny that in other argument, you bring up PRISM, but here you don't discuss the corporate account travel expenses from NYC/LA to Asia market. I'd be shocked if Tokyo isn't top of the list with Hong Kong and Singapore after them.


You underestimate PVG. I'm not going to post numbers so you're free to not believe what I'm saying, but it's TYO by a long-shot, which no one, myself included, has ever denied, followed by PVG then SIN, then HKG.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 878
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 30, 2019 6:44 pm

https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0014-0081

Guam objects the allocations, asks for DOT to give UA one HND-Guam slot.
 
ITSTours
Posts: 361
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:51 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 30, 2019 7:20 pm

Ishrion wrote:
https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=DOT-OST-2019-0014-0081

Guam objects the allocations, asks for DOT to give UA one HND-Guam slot.


I saw it a few days ago but now I'm finally reading it carefully, and they're pretty harsh on the Japanese economy.

"It must be noted that Guam's activity was impacted, due in large part to Japan's economic contraction (and effect on its Yen rate) and its aging population"
"Capacity and demand was severely curtailed by the Japan triple disaster in 2011 with the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear impacts."

Also didn't know the seat capacity between Guam-Japan pre-9/11 was very large. Looking at the US BTS data, in 2000 it was 1.38 million seats one-way. In 2018 (up to November) it's mere 440k.

NRT, however, didn't shrink that much until 2017. But in 2018, DL's exit and UA's downgauging was pretty significant, almost 40% reduction in capacity.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 878
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 30, 2019 8:26 pm

Hawaiian Airlines' objection: https://www.regulations.gov/document?D= ... -0014-0084

They're mainly talking about how HNL deserves more authority than LAX.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 5727
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu May 30, 2019 8:42 pm

YYZORD wrote:
Any chance for NH to add HND-DEN & HND-EWR with their 6 slots?


Why would NH ever choose DEN-HND over IAH-HND?
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