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UA857
Posts: 437
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:41 am

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:42 am

jfk777 wrote:
UA857 wrote:
Here´s how the US3´s HND operations supposed to look like

DL:
HNL 763
SEA A339
PDX A332
LAX 77E
MSP 77E
DTW A359
JFK 77L
ATL 77L

UA:
SFO 788/789 type varies
LAX 788/789 type varies
ORD 77E (GE)
EWR 77E (GE)
IAD 77E (P&W)

AA:
LAX 788/789
DFW 77W
JFK 77W



Since when do Delta & AA fly from Haneda to JFK ?

United is missing Houston ?

I´m saying that Delta & AA should add Haneda from JFK brings the number of NYC-TYO flights from the current 5 to 8.
 
Fuling
Posts: 276
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 4:41 am

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:10 am

UA857 wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
UA857 wrote:
Here´s how the US3´s HND operations supposed to look like

DL:
HNL 763
SEA A339
PDX A332
LAX 77E
MSP 77E
DTW A359
JFK 77L
ATL 77L

UA:
SFO 788/789 type varies
LAX 788/789 type varies
ORD 77E (GE)
EWR 77E (GE)
IAD 77E (P&W)

AA:
LAX 788/789
DFW 77W
JFK 77W



Since when do Delta & AA fly from Haneda to JFK ?

United is missing Houston ?

I´m saying that Delta & AA should add Haneda from JFK brings the number of NYC-TYO flights from the current 5 to 8.


Please explain why they should? And why do you think they haven't?
 
UA857
Posts: 437
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:41 am

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:27 am

Fuling wrote:
UA857 wrote:
jfk777 wrote:


Since when do Delta & AA fly from Haneda to JFK ?

United is missing Houston ?

I´m saying that Delta & AA should add Haneda from JFK brings the number of NYC-TYO flights from the current 5 to 8.


Please explain why they should? And why do you think they haven't?

Didn´t there used to be like 7 or 8 NYC-TYO flights a day a Fodor´s Travel talk article from 2004 shows.

JAL JFK-NRT 2x daily 744
ANA JFK-NRT 1x daily 744
NW JFK-NRT 1x daily 744
UA JFK-NRT 1x daily 77E
CO EWR-NRT 1x daily 77E
AA JFK-NRT 1x daily 77E
 
jfk777
Posts: 7338
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:53 am

UA857 wrote:
Fuling wrote:
UA857 wrote:
I´m saying that Delta & AA should add Haneda from JFK brings the number of NYC-TYO flights from the current 5 to 8.


Please explain why they should? And why do you think they haven't?

Didn´t there used to be like 7 or 8 NYC-TYO flights a day a Fodor´s Travel talk article from 2004 shows.

JAL JFK-NRT 2x daily 744
ANA JFK-NRT 1x daily 744
NW JFK-NRT 1x daily 744
UA JFK-NRT 1x daily 77E
CO EWR-NRT 1x daily 77E
AA JFK-NRT 1x daily 77E


Back in 2004 you still had 6 large US airline that now merged into the US3. Back then United & Continental both had flight to Narita, so the merger killed the UA JFK to NRT flight leaving Newark. NW fly from JFK to NRT, Delta decided Asia was not important enough for them and killed the flight not long after the 744 fleet was retired.

AA's flight was moved to Haneda, when the Japanese aloud the first HND flights they had to arrive after 2200 and leave by 0700 which meant AA flights left JFK at 1900 arriving in Tokyo at almost midnight. The departure was awfully early at 0650 arriving at JFK at 0700. The results were a disaster and after some time trying to make it work AA killed the flight and never returned to JFK to Tokyo except via their partner JAL's flights.

Today the JFK to Tokyo market is four flights daily by the two JAL & ANA.
 
UA857
Posts: 437
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:41 am

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:46 am

jfk777 wrote:
UA857 wrote:
Fuling wrote:

Please explain why they should? And why do you think they haven't?

Didn´t there used to be like 7 or 8 NYC-TYO flights a day a Fodor´s Travel talk article from 2004 shows.

JAL JFK-NRT 2x daily 744
ANA JFK-NRT 1x daily 744
NW JFK-NRT 1x daily 744
UA JFK-NRT 1x daily 77E
CO EWR-NRT 1x daily 77E
AA JFK-NRT 1x daily 77E


Back in 2004 you still had 6 large US airline that now merged into the US3. Back then United & Continental both had flight to Narita, so the merger killed the UA JFK to NRT flight leaving Newark. NW fly from JFK to NRT, Delta decided Asia was not important enough for them and killed the flight not long after the 744 fleet was retired.

Isn´t Skyteam absent between NYC-TYO I mean unlike NYC-LON which has all three alliances NYC-TYO, a very important route is missing one alliance.

AA's flight was moved to Haneda, when the Japanese aloud the first HND flights they had to arrive after 2200 and leave by 0700 which meant AA flights left JFK at 1900 arriving in Tokyo at almost midnight. The departure was awfully early at 0650 arriving at JFK at 0700. The results were a disaster and after some time trying to make it work AA killed the flight and never returned to JFK to Tokyo except via their partner JAL's flights.

Today the JFK to Tokyo market is four flights daily by the two JAL & ANA.
 
User avatar
SCFlyer
Posts: 577
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:14 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:50 am

jfk777 wrote:
Back in 2004 you still had 6 large US airline that now merged into the US3. Back then United & Continental both had flight to Narita, so the merger killed the UA JFK to NRT flight leaving Newark.


UA killed the JFK-NRT route well before the UA/CO merger. UA at the time was restructuring from bankruptcy and was killing most of their p2p routes by moving them back to their hubs. International Flying from outside the UA hubs (JFK, MIA, SEA) was being moved to hubs and the crew bases there closed.
 
onwFan
Posts: 432
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:22 pm

For DL, 7x daily flights into HND without feed there was already way too much capacity, diluting the KE JV. The coronavirus developments have only deepened the problem. We can definitely expect some changes to the aforementioned slot allotments in the next two years. The question is: how long will it be justifiable for DL to hold on to those slots before AA/UA are allowed to move more of their flights into HND.
 
Sightseer
Posts: 995
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:04 am

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:53 pm

onwFan wrote:
For DL, 7x daily flights into HND without feed there was already way too much capacity, diluting the KE JV. The coronavirus developments have only deepened the problem. We can definitely expect some changes to the aforementioned slot allotments in the next two years.

How come? UA is in a similar situation at LHR and, by all accounts, does quite well for itself.
 
onwFan
Posts: 432
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:05 pm

Sightseer wrote:
onwFan wrote:
For DL, 7x daily flights into HND without feed there was already way too much capacity, diluting the KE JV. The coronavirus developments have only deepened the problem. We can definitely expect some changes to the aforementioned slot allotments in the next two years.

How come? UA is in a similar situation at LHR and, by all accounts, does quite well for itself.

LHR vs. HND is an apples to oranges comparison. As much as HND is the preferred airport, I just don’t see how the whole traffic that used to be US-NRT-Asia can be magically transferred into US-HND alone, especially with additional capacity by JAL and UA in TYO-SEA/SFO/LAX/EWR; especially in the next 1-2 yrs. There has to be some capacity rationalization and something has got to blink somewhere. The pattern in which DL suspended HND service during this crisis paints a clear picture... I will be happy to be proved wrong if DL is able to keep MSP-HND for another two years. PDX-HND depends on how fast business demand returns, but is far better served through a JL/AS partnership. Both these are just a question of when, not if.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5067
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:16 pm

Sightseer wrote:
onwFan wrote:
For DL, 7x daily flights into HND without feed there was already way too much capacity, diluting the KE JV. The coronavirus developments have only deepened the problem. We can definitely expect some changes to the aforementioned slot allotments in the next two years.

How come? UA is in a similar situation at LHR and, by all accounts, does quite well for itself.


A couple of things:
- HND is a much smaller market than LHR
- TPAC was far and away the least profitable of the geographical regions for DL prior to COVID
- post-COVID, demand to Asia will be really low for a few years
- Delta will be a lot smaller coming out of this and need to rebuild its finances.

7x daily to HND seems crazy at this point.
 
codc10
Posts: 2835
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2000 7:18 am

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:33 pm

UA857 wrote:
Here´s how the US3´s HND operations supposed to look like

DL:
HNL 763
SEA A339
PDX A332
LAX 77E
MSP 77E
DTW A359
JFK 77L
ATL 77L

UA:
SFO 788/789 type varies
LAX 788/789 type varies
ORD 77E (GE)
EWR 77E (GE)
IAD 77E (P&W)

AA:
LAX 788/789
DFW 77W
JFK 77W


UA was planning 787-10 operations on LAX-HND, and already transitioned to the 787-10 on SFO-HND before the COVID epidemic.

If you're saying that's how the operation *should* look, AA's preference for an additional HND slot was DFW #2, followed by LAS. When it comes to service into JV hubs with its own metal, AA is looking at point-of-sale strength and connectivity. It has neither w/r/t JFK, while JAL has a strong POS advantage ex-HND as well as in those markets beyond HND. JAL metal on multiple frequencies to JFK gives AA a presence in the market, and the JAL brand maximizes revenue.

It's telling that neither AA nor DL included JFK in their respective 'moonshot' scenarios in the HND applications.
 
panamair
Posts: 4287
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2001 2:24 am

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:05 pm

onwFan wrote:
LHR vs. HND is an apples to oranges comparison. As much as HND is the preferred airport, I just don’t see how the whole traffic that used to be US-NRT-Asia can be magically transferred into US-HND alone


Prior to the Covid-19 crisis, there already wasn’t much left of US-NRT-Asia and DL still maintained 7 flights to NRT. In the last 12 months, the only NRT-Asia were SIN and MNL and in the last 6 months, MNL was the only one left. So transfer traffic was already minimal and a good portion of the NRT-SIN and to a lesser extent on NRT-MNL was local traffic. So no, this isn’t a sudden transfer of an entire comprehensive US-NRT-Asia operation to HND; a large portion of the US-NRT traffic was already local.

Of course with the Covid-19 situation now, everything is on the table depending on how things play out with future travel restrictions and demand.
 
onwFan
Posts: 432
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:20 pm

panamair wrote:
onwFan wrote:
LHR vs. HND is an apples to oranges comparison. As much as HND is the preferred airport, I just don’t see how the whole traffic that used to be US-NRT-Asia can be magically transferred into US-HND alone


Prior to the Covid-19 crisis, there already wasn’t much left of US-NRT-Asia and DL still maintained 7 flights to NRT. In the last 12 months, the only NRT-Asia were SIN and MNL and in the last 6 months, MNL was the only one left. So transfer traffic was already minimal and a good portion of the NRT-SIN and to a lesser extent on NRT-MNL was local traffic. So no, this isn’t a sudden transfer of an entire comprehensive US-NRT-Asia operation to HND; a large portion of the US-NRT traffic was already local.

Of course with the Covid-19 situation now, everything is on the table depending on how things play out with future travel restrictions and demand.

It is not as straightforward as you said. We haven’t even got an opportunity to see how DL does when the services all move to HND. Irrespective of how they were doing without feed at NRT, we all expected them to maintain all those routes to justify the award of those HND slots, and secure their transfer to HND. So I don’t believe that those routes were ‘all’ doing necessarily fine without feed. One can always say that those routes were sustainable if it were not for the crisis, because we will never know now; but I seriously doubt it.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 7772
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:49 pm

UA857 wrote:
Fuling wrote:
UA857 wrote:
I´m saying that Delta & AA should add Haneda from JFK brings the number of NYC-TYO flights from the current 5 to 8.


Please explain why they should? And why do you think they haven't?

Didn´t there used to be like 7 or 8 NYC-TYO flights a day a Fodor´s Travel talk article from 2004 shows.

JAL JFK-NRT 2x daily 744
ANA JFK-NRT 1x daily 744
NW JFK-NRT 1x daily 744
UA JFK-NRT 1x daily 77E
CO EWR-NRT 1x daily 77E
AA JFK-NRT 1x daily 77E


Beyond jfk777's remarks, TYO isn't the hub it used to be: There are more China and Korea non-stops.
 
jfk777
Posts: 7338
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:00 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
UA857 wrote:
Fuling wrote:

Please explain why they should? And why do you think they haven't?

Didn´t there used to be like 7 or 8 NYC-TYO flights a day a Fodor´s Travel talk article from 2004 shows.

JAL JFK-NRT 2x daily 744
ANA JFK-NRT 1x daily 744
NW JFK-NRT 1x daily 744
UA JFK-NRT 1x daily 77E
CO EWR-NRT 1x daily 77E
AA JFK-NRT 1x daily 77E


Beyond jfk777's remarks, TYO isn't the hub it used to be: There are more China and Korea non-stops.


The transition to Haneda is about serving Japan and Tokyo. Sure there is some limited connecting traffic beyond Japan, most of the passengers are origin and destination to Japan. With the rise of Korean, Chinese, and other Asian mega airlines many cities are connecting hubs. Planes now commonly fly 16 hours also making many flights viable.
 
User avatar
c933103
Posts: 4156
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:17 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
UA857 wrote:
Fuling wrote:

Please explain why they should? And why do you think they haven't?

Didn´t there used to be like 7 or 8 NYC-TYO flights a day a Fodor´s Travel talk article from 2004 shows.

JAL JFK-NRT 2x daily 744
ANA JFK-NRT 1x daily 744
NW JFK-NRT 1x daily 744
UA JFK-NRT 1x daily 77E
CO EWR-NRT 1x daily 77E
AA JFK-NRT 1x daily 77E


Beyond jfk777's remarks, TYO isn't the hub it used to be: There are more China and Korea non-stops.

The current NYC-TYO capacity is still much less than 4×744+3×77E, that the differences should be larger than the proportion of China/Korea-originated traffic back then. Although China/Korea-bpund flights have also attracted a sizable portion of transit traffic from rest of Asia or even from part of Japan, with the global air travel demand growth in the past decades the demand should still be more than the current supply.
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ITSTours
Posts: 572
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:51 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:24 am

Well, Japanese government has banned "US-bound foreigners" to enter the country, so I assume not many US airlines will fly to Haneda.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 4900
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:48 am

Sightseer wrote:
onwFan wrote:
For DL, 7x daily flights into HND without feed there was already way too much capacity, diluting the KE JV. The coronavirus developments have only deepened the problem. We can definitely expect some changes to the aforementioned slot allotments in the next two years.

How come? UA is in a similar situation at LHR and, by all accounts, does quite well for itself.

I think that UAL has feed in LHR from the European Star partners and feeds them form the USA. It might not be as much s AA gets from BA but it's substantial.
 
Sightseer
Posts: 995
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:04 am

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:00 am

tphuang wrote:
A couple of things:
- HND is a much smaller market than LHR
- TPAC was far and away the least profitable of the geographical regions for DL prior to COVID
- post-COVID, demand to Asia will be really low for a few years
- Delta will be a lot smaller coming out of this and need to rebuild its finances.

Regarding #1, how much proportional capacity does DL have (or normally would have) at HND compared to UA at LHR? I know we're talking about 7 DL flights compared to 18 UA flights, but that's about it offhand. And for #2, Asia being weak in recent years does not necessarily equate to HND being weak. I would imagine - but could be wrong - that yields to China and beyond are a bigger source of weakness for DL than US-Japan O&D is. 3 and 4 are true for DL, but they'll be true for other airlines too (though that's another discussion).
onwFan wrote:
We haven’t even got an opportunity to see how DL does when the services all move to HND. Irrespective of how they were doing without feed at NRT, we all expected them to maintain all those routes to justify the award of those HND slots, and secure their transfer to HND. So I don’t believe that those routes were ‘all’ doing necessarily fine without feed. One can always say that those routes were sustainable if it were not for the crisis, because we will never know now; but I seriously doubt it.

If the US-NRT routes were really doing poorly, I think the implementation of the KE JV would've given DL cover to drop any egregious performers. That's what they did with HKG, after all.
 
DeltaPSCFlyer
Posts: 74
Joined: Fri Nov 22, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:03 pm

The new slots and allocations to U.S. and Japanese carriers were all done based on pre-COVID-19 market conditions. What was relevant and reasonable then, certainly isn't now, and won't be until we have a safe and reliable vaccine in place, likely 12-18 months away.

I can see a couple of things happening:
- The current agreement for HND-US slots, times, etc. remains in place, but not enforced, meaning the U.S. carriers and Japanese carriers can suspend or delay frequencies for the foreseeable future without penalty or fear of losing the slots.
- The current agreement is completely scrapped and renegotiated, meaning re-applying for slots. (Highly unlikely)
- The current agreement is modified for an interim period of 12-24 months until the vaccine is in place to allow for split frequencies for various cities, for example 4x PDX-HND/3x SLC-HND; 4x JFK-HND/3x MSP-HND.
- The current agreement is modified to allow for both split frequencies, but also to allow any of these airlines to completely drop and/or move from an existing slot to a new one to accommodate changing market demands.

Just my $.02!
 
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janders
Moderator
Posts: 1104
Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:27 pm

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:15 pm

DeltaPSCFlyer wrote:
I can see a couple of things happening:
- The current agreement for HND-US slots, times, etc. remains in place, but not enforced, meaning the U.S. carriers and Japanese carriers can suspend or delay frequencies for the foreseeable future without penalty or fear of losing the slots.



Japan(along with ton of other nations) have already waived slot usage requirements for S20. However, awarded service needs to be in place by W20 season which commences 25 October 2020.
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
United1
Posts: 4155
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2003 9:21 am

Re: Updated: US DOT awards Haneda slots

Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:29 pm

jfk777 wrote:
UA857 wrote:
Here´s how the US3´s HND operations supposed to look like

DL:
HNL 763
SEA A339
PDX A332
LAX 77E
MSP 77E
DTW A359
JFK 77L
ATL 77L

UA:
SFO 788/789 type varies
LAX 788/789 type varies
ORD 77E (GE)
EWR 77E (GE)
IAD 77E (P&W)

AA:
LAX 788/789
DFW 77W
JFK 77W



Since when do Delta & AA fly from Haneda to JFK ?

United is missing Houston ?


UA was not awarded IAH-HND service..pre Covid UAs service to Tokyo was going to look like:

HND-SFO/LAX/ORD/EWR/IAD
NRT-GUM/DEN/HNL/IAH/LAX/SFO/EWR
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