Based on the applications, these are the awards I'd personally like to see:
AA LAX-HND #2
AA DFW-HND #2
This spreads the love around between alliances a bit, and allows DL and AA to pull their own metal out of NRT and simplify their TYO ops. NH could pretty easily fill in the rest of UA's requests with the likely 7 frequencies they'll get awarded.
I'm curious as to why you think AA should be awarded a 2nd frequency at both DFW and LAX before UA would be awarded a 1st frequency on some of their requests? I don't believe it's the DOTs job to spread the wealth between carriers but instead award routes based on the best US consumer interest...regardless of which US carrier operates the route. Awarding AA a 2nd LAX frequency before allowing UA to even have it's 1st LAX frequency would seem like the government is trying to pick favorites.
Because I'm looking at UA/NH as one airline (since for all intents and purposes they operate that way to Japan). UA/NH already have HND flights from SFO, LAX, ORD, JFK, and HNL. AA/JL have HND flights from SFO, LAX, and JFK. Giving UA their requested LAX or ORD flights, in my view, is absolutely no different from giving AA/JL two LAX or two DFW flights since UA really already has a flight in each of those markets through NH, and now are asking for second frequencies. The only difference is that UA/NH already have more flights to begin with.
I think the DOT will probably give UA one or two fewer awards than they give AA, just to try to maintain competitive balance. At some level it is
the DOT's job to spread the wealth around, insofar as having a more level playing field benefits consumers through more competition and lower prices. Say the DOT granted all 5 of UA's mainland requests - then NH will get an additional 6 frequencies of their own, and the UA/NH JV would end up with 16 out of the total 36 U.S.-HND flights. Nearly half!
Also, the more awards the DOT grants to UA, the harder it will be for NH to find good places to put their 6 additional frequencies. Say UA is granted EWR and IAD (both seem to me to have good chances as currently unserved markets to HND). NH already has LAX, ORD, and JFK covered, so they could move their SEA, SJC, and IAH flights to HND, and then they still have half their allocation to toy around with some combination of moving one of their two LAX-NRT flights over to HND, moving their SFO-NRT, or their ORD-NRT flights to HND, or adding capacity to Hawai'i/Guam. And that's just if UA gets two awards. If they were to get four (EWR, IAD, ORD, and LAX or IAH), then NH probably wouldn't want to move their LAX or ORD flights to HND so that they maintain a presence to NRT from those markets and boost connections at NRT. For the same reason, I don't see NH moving their JFK-NRT flight to HND - that would leave NRT without JFK service by the JV.
So I guess I'm trying to look at what the overall picture might look like in the U.S.-TYO market when all is said and done. If the best case scenario happened for DL (all 6 frequencies awarded) and the DOT split the other 6 evenly between UA and AA, you could have something like this:
SEA-HND (1x NH + 1x JL + 1x DL)
PDX-HND (1x DL)
SFO-NRT (1x UA)
SFO-HND (1x UA + 1x NH + 1x JL)
SJC-HND (1x NH)
LAX-NRT (1x UA + 1x NH + 1x JL + 1x SQ)
LAX-HND (2x NH + 2x AA + 1x DL)
SAN-HND (1x JL)
LAS-HND (1x JL)
DEN-NRT (1x UA)
IAH-NRT (1x UA)
IAH-HND (1x NH)
DFW-NRT (1x JL)
DFW-HND (2x AA)
MSP-HND (1x DL)
ORD-NRT (1x NH + 1x JL)
ORD-HND (1x UA + 1x NH + 1x JL)
DTW-HND (1x DL)
ATL-HND (1x DL)
IAD-NRT (1x NH)
IAD-HND (1x UA)
EWR-NRT (1x UA)
EWR-HND (1x UA)
JFK-NRT (1x NH + 1x JL)
JFK-HND (1x NH + 1x JL)
BOS-HND (1x JL)
HNL-NRT (2x NH + 4x JL + 1x HA)
HNL-HND (1x NH + 1x JL + 1.6x HA + 2x DL)
KOA-NRT (1x JL)
KOA-HND (0.4x HA)
GUM-HND (1x NH)
In other permutations where DL doesn't get their full award, just shuffle the above flights around between carriers. For example, maybe HA ends up with 2.6x HNL-HND and DL with 1x HNL-HND. Maybe UA/NH get fewer awards than AA/JL and ORD ends up being split ORD-NRT 1x UA, ORD-HND 2x NH, with AA flying LAS-HND instead of JL, JL adding a HNL frequency instead of LAS, and NH not flying to GUM from HND... There are lots of ways this could shake out, but I do hope DL gets 5 or 6 of their requests when looking at the overall U.S.-TYO picture.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.